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* CQ Politics has switched its rating on the Kirk vs. Seals congressional race to “No Clear Favorite”…
• Illinois’ 10th District (New Rating: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican)
The re-rating of this race isn’t due to any slipup by four-term moderate Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , who hasn’t made any missteps in the rematch of the 2006 race in which he defeated Democrat Dan Seals by 7 percentage points. Kirk is exceptionally well-funded, with $4.8 million raised through Oct. 15, and he’s touting a voting record that is among the most independent-minded among House Republicans. History also shows that many rematch challengers do worse on their second try.
But there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Seals is running closer to Kirk than he did two years ago in a slightly Democratic-leaning swing district that includes some affluent suburbs north of Chicago. Seals began his second campaign not long after he lost his first, which helps explain why he’s raised more than $3 million, one of the highest totals in the nation for a challenging candidate. The DCCC, which gave Seals’ 2006 campaign very limited assistance, has spent more than $1 million on this year’s race. And if there is a coattails effect anywhere from Obama’s presidential bid, it should be in this district in the Illinois senator’s home state — which even in 2004 favored Democrat John Kerry for president over Bush by 5 percentage points.
I don’t know if they’ll run it or not, but after this morning’s event, WBBM Radio asked me for my surprise of the night for next Tuesday. I was caught a bit off guard and pointed to a possible Kirk upset. There are other possibilities, however, so perhaps you can discuss them below.
* The DCCC has a new TV ad attacking Kirk and tying him to President Bush…
* But the Politico names Kirk as one of its “stand-out centrists of 2008″…
Mark Kirk of Illinois: A military man and leader of the Republican Main Street Partnership, this congressman from the suburbs of Chicago has the unenviable task this year of running against a charismatic African-American challenger. But Kirk has shown the mettle to stand up to Bush and Tom DeLay and the vision to set out a “suburban agenda” that is “pro-defense, pro-personal responsibility, pro-environment and pro-science.”
* After saying he wouldn’t do it, Jim Oberweis is now running a negative TV ad. The ad highlights his disagreement with Democratic incumbent Bill Foster on the bailout plan. So far, I’m told, this is just on cable TV, but he also bought radio time…
* Democrat Jill Morgenthaler’s new TV ad…
* Republican Aaron Schock’s leadership PAC got a writeup in CQ…
Another would-be House member who has been donating to party candidates is Illinois Republican Aaron Schock, a 27-year-old state representative who set up a “leadership” political action committee after easily winning a primary election in February in the state’s Peoria-centered 18th District. Schock, who is heavily favored to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Ray LaHood , started cutting checks of $5,000 apiece to non-incumbent Republicans earlier this month, including several who are certain to win and therefore vote in freshman class leadership elections.
These young guns are part of a small and very slowly growing set of politicians who have presaged leadership potential by capitalizing on electoral safety and fundraising prowess to raise their profiles before they take the oath of office.
Whether the early giving turns pre-frosh candidates into political players or simply reflects acumen that will serve their ambitions later on, it is a tactic that has been employed by fast-rising stars in the past.
* More…
* 16th District congressional candidates go nuclear on energy
* Greenberg again attacks Bean on financial ties, economy
* 6 Republicans stump for Callahan
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 10:58 am
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I find it amusing that the headline is Oberwies goes negative, but there is no such headline for the democrats negative ads.
Comment by Maggie Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:05 am
The Oberweis spot is pretty good. Considering the pounding she’s been taking from Roskam, Morganthaler’s spot is well within bounds.
Schock’s cutting $5,000 checks to other candidates? He’s got some friends in high places, I guess.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:09 am
I find it amusing that people don’t read the post, which includes the line “After saying he wouldn’t do it, Jim Oberweis is running a negative TV ad.”
Negative ads aren’t news. Running negative ads after saying you wouldn’t run negative ads is news. And there is your headline.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:15 am
== Getting a boy toy or mistress? ==
Stay classy Carl…
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:21 am
The 10th CD certainly is a toss-up.
The race to watch now is Mark Begich against Ted Stevens. Stevens will lose, but I’m curious as to by how much he will lose.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:47 am
I don’t see anything major in Illinois. I still think Kirk will hold on. If I had to predict an upset, it would be Obie, since that district still has strong GOP roots.
Nationally, the race to watch is the Georgia Senate. High turnout means Saxby’s gone. He’s already served one term too many.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:01 pm
The Seal’s ad takes snippets from glowing Mark Kirk endorsements to try and make their point. Dishonest but to be expected given that every paper endorsed Kirk. They had to go back 2 years to find a couple of words they could attribute to the Daily Herald that could work for them. I hope Kirk blasts back with the rest of the story. And I hope other 10th CD voters take a few minutes to google search the stories in question. It’s going to be tighter than it should but ads like this are serving to rally Kirk volunteers who are not taking anything for granted this time around.
Comment by 10th Indy Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:02 pm
It isn’t Seals’ ad.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:38 pm
I’m a major Kirk supporter but in this enviornment with all the new democrat voters coming out, you have to think that if it’s close it’s going to not go Kirk’s way.
Side note, terrible reporting here and elsewhere on the Freedoms Watch ad buy against Seals. The reporting made it seem as if ultra right wing Bush groups from d.c. were trying to prop up Kirk and that is simply not true.
Freedom’s Watch is an independent pro-Israel group that has nothing to do with Kirk For Congress.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:01 pm
so the neo-con group (freedom watch) dumped almost half a million dollars into the race but they’re not trying to prop up kirk???
after you untwist yourself from that bizarre logic, would you care to tell us what you really think?
the one thing that is sure is that freedom watch’s intervention in this race totally destroys any thought that kirk is independent. he has the same loyalty to bush that peter roskam does — and roskam doesn’t pretend that he’s an independent! at least roskam is honest.
not only will the 10th be better served by someone who’s not so lost in the past, but so will be the nation. we don’t need more intellectual and political lightweights in congress, we need less of them — especially in this time of economic crisis. let’s not pretend that kirk is anything but what he is: a republican bench warmer.
time for the 10th to send in the first team…
Comment by bored now Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:24 pm
Oberwies declared that he would not go negative. I don’t consider that a negative ad…given Obies history. He must have stayed on the meds since the special election. If it is true, I have no issue with it. The ad is not headline worthy imo. When I start my own version of Capitolfax, i wil not put that on there.
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:27 pm
Skeeter, if Oberweis wins, that won’t be an upset. Hastert had the seat for 19 years, and he usually got 65%-70% of the vote. We should expect Oberweis to win.
Comment by Phil Collins Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:27 pm
Freedom’s Watch supports Kirk’s strong stand in support of Israel and does not want to lose that advocacy to Dan Seals who is at best luke-warm in his support of Israel.
Comment by 10th Indy Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:41 pm
Bored, if there’s one thing the north shore does not need right now it’s a neophyte politician imported from outside of the district spewing national democratic talking points. We have enough local state democratic politicians without the nerve to stand up for us.
I urge you to remove your liberal blinders and read pretty much every local and national publication from the NYT, to WashPost to National Journal that have called Kirk a forward thinking moderate.
Also it’s worth noting your local and national democratic politicians from Jan to Blago have produced the least popular congress in history, and the state speaks for itself.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:58 pm
I usually don’t promote other blogs on this site, because Rich Miller has the best in the state, but today I urge you to visit www.theinsidedope.blogspot.com
The Inside Dope had the courage to print an article about Aaron Schock’s unwillingness to pour sunshine on his tax returns. The ID uncovers the most well-known rumor in Peoria — that Schock MAY HAVE TAKEN $50,000 from a prominent businessman and loaned it to his congressional campaign. Campaign finance violation at a minimum.
That rumor is now conventional wisdom among reporters in Peoria, but no one has had the courage to run it.
Kudos to the Inside Dope!
Comment by there he goes again Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:59 pm
Freedom’s Watch was formed by former Bush Administration folks. It IS an ultra right-wing group.
And spare us the “imported from outside the district” talking points. The guy lives about a 7-iron shot outside the district. It isn’t as if there is some cosmic difference between what Wilmette voters on one block are experiencing vs. those Wilmette voters a couple hundred feet away.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:21 pm
I secomnd JonShibleyFan; being gerrymandered two blocks outside of the district doesn’t suddenly make you into an “outsider”. He sends his kids to school in the district, for crying out loud.
Comment by Ben Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:35 pm
Seals wasn’t gerrymandered out of the district. He bought his house then realized that he lived outside of the district when he made plans to run.
Not exactly a great start.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 3:04 pm
I so agree with Wumpus that the Obie ad is NOT negative - Foster is a big boy now - and has to be able to stand up to points made on his record and finances -
besides, I live in the 14th Dist. and have I seen negative ads!! from Obie and many others!
Comment by I Know a Negative Ad When I see It Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:01 pm
shore, rich frowns on “national talking points,” even if they come from rush limbaugh.
while i admit that seals’ message is highly managed and a bit too narrow for my taste, i don’t think anyone would disagree with the fact that dan is a lot more thoughtful and intelligent than the idiot he’s seeking to replace. there is no reason to think that he won’t be more competent than kirk (even though i doubt anyone could have managed their image better than kirk).
obviously, you have no problem with the neo-con effort to save kirk’s seat. given kirk’s close association with donald rumsfeld, and his stark loyalty to george bush, the north shore is left with one question: should it re-elect a intellectual lightweight and political patsy or is it time for change? the dittoheads will no doubt say that any republican — even a bench warmer like mark kirk — is better than a democrat. but dan seals has a lot more potential than “just a democrat,” and he’s certainly got a lot more upside than neo-con patsy mark kirk.
unfortunately, that’s not saying much…
Comment by bored now Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:07 pm
Kirk’s resume includes degrees from Cornell, the London School of Economics and Georgetown. Dan doesn’t seem to know the meaning of the word decisive.
Comment by 10th Indy Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:18 pm
” . . . while i admit that seals’ message is highly managed and a bit too narrow . . .”
Now there is an understatement!
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:23 pm
bored now, please whatever you do, say what you really think. You seem to be holding back on the hyperbolic name calling of Mark Kirk… How about a cogent argument on merits? Nah, no fun I suppose.
Comment by RobRoy Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:30 pm
-If an internship in Washington makes you an intellectual then Blago deserves a Nobel prize.
-Just so you know the are a lot of people to the right of Jan, and the rest of the folks propping up Dan Seals, and they happen to be 98% of the American people. Not believing in spending for bridges to nowhere and in supporting missile defense does not make you a right winger.
-The Bush bashing is really cute, but sadly out of touch as he won’t be back in the next congress and Dan really doesn’t have anything to say other than that. You might also note that in 2 cycles Dan hasn’t received one general election newspaper endorsement and Kirk has received support from pro-abortion, anti-gun, pro-enviornment groups.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:32 pm
Bored now, Rep. Kirk doesn’t have stark loyalty to President Bush. In May 2007, when 11 republican congressmen went to the White House and told Bush that they opposed the Iraq surge, Kirk was the group’s leader. Bush signed the partial-birth abortion ban, but Kirk voted against it. Bush supported an amendment that would have banned gay marriage, but Kirk voted against it. However, Kirk is better than Seals. Kirk usually votes for tax cuts, but Seals probably wouldn’t do that.
Comment by ConservativeVeteran Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:38 pm
Hey Peoria-area reporters: Are you awake?
Are you challenging Schock to release his tax returns to find out about the mysterious $50,000 loan?
Comment by there he goes again Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 5:36 pm
i dont usually by into any sort of bias, but foster, on numerous occasions, has talked of how positive he is…yet he had his ads produced and bought and launched them–not a story for some reason. and he twice voted for a bailout, where nearly $70B of it is being used to bonus out senior level execs (2 different papers today had the story).
Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 8:07 pm
I give Seals better odds than Foster.
What a seriously screwed up year.
Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:20 pm
10th Indy,
Seals has degrees from Johns Hopkins and U of Chicago. So, as impressive as Kirk’s CV is, let’s dispense with the silly, Kirk is smarter bs.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:30 pm
Maybe that’s why I’m feeling so out of sorts? It’s October and the ice cream man isn’t in an ad playing the malicious fool every twenty minutes of TV I watch.
Comment by Quizzical Wednesday, Oct 29, 08 @ 12:16 am
the belief that kirk is smarter than seals is absolutely laughable. kirk’s reputation on the hill is as a publicity-hound — ala bernie stone — and as an intellectual lightweight.
the old rudman quip puts it in perspective. rudman argued that a third of the members of congress knew why they were there, what they wanted to do and how to do it, another third knew why they were there and what they wanted to do, and the final third barely knew why they were there. mark kirk is clearly, obviously, in the final third. the only thing you can say is that seals could be no worse than mark kirk, and is likely to be a lot better.
time for change — it’s not even a risk…
Comment by bored now Wednesday, Oct 29, 08 @ 9:15 am