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Sunday roundup * UPDATED x1 *

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Obama

* According to a friend who was there, former Chicago schools chief and onetime gubernatorial candidate Paul Vallas was asked at a press conference today whether he would run for governor in 2010.

Vallas flatly ruled out a 2010 run.

Vallas said he has asked for a one-year extension of his New Orleans public school district contract. He was asked about other offices, including county board president, and Vallas reportedly said he wasn’t going to run through the whole list.

*** UPDATE *** The Daily Herald has more…

Paul Vallas announced Sunday he would not run for governor or any office and has instead signed on for a third year as head of New Orleans’ public schools.

“I would have liked to have run for governor,” Vallas said.

But Vallas said he is staying on as chief of New Orleans’ school district for at least an extra year to “get it done right.”

Vallas signed on for a third year down South last week, meaning his contract won’t expire until June of 2010, too late he said to make a run for office in an election that November.

However, Vallas said, “I’m not going to say I’m never going to run for anything again.”

My cynical self wonders if he used those recent leaks about a possible countywide bid as a negotiating ploy with the New Orleans school board.

[*** End of update ***]

* Vallas’ press conference was called to express his support for the constitutional convention referendum. Doug Finke appears to endorse a “Yes” vote in his column today…

So, by all means, if you want to help the governor continue to do a bang-up job, vote against a convention.

Watch Pat Quinn debate Dawn Clark Netsch on the con-con here.

* Former congressman and DuPage County Republican icon Harris Fawell has endorsed Barack Obama for president…

Harris Fawell, former congressman for the 13th Congressional District, is backing a Democrat for president for the first time in his life. The 79-year-old Republican said there’s a good chance that Obama will carry the county.

“He’s the best I have seen, the most qualified I’ve ever seen running for president,” Fawell said.

That sort of movement towards Obama in DuPage is at the heart of freshman Congresscritter Peter Roskam’s attempts to tie himself to the presidential hopeful in his direct mail.

* Both in that above piece and in the Tribune’s story here, college professors say they don’t think Rod Blagojevich will hold back Democratic candidates this year…

From races for the state Senate to Congress, Democratic candidates are eagerly displaying their photos with Obama, using his name on campaign signs and buttons and featuring his endorsement in advertising.

Republicans hoping to keep a Democratic tsunami from wiping out their last Illinois strongholds are countering with blistering ads that repeat the name of the scandal-plagued governor as if it were a mantra.

“I would think the Obama pull is going to be more important than the Blagojevich drag,” said Christopher Mooney, professor of political studies at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “Blagojevich is an unusual case. Still, these people are turning out for Obama.”

That’s true to an extent. However, candidates tied directly to Blagojevich are having terrible problems, at the congressional and legislative level. If Roskam loses (along with a few House and Senate races I’m following), then the Blagojevich Effect had no impact. If those candidates win (and Roskam is ahead, despite the late drop in support), then it did work.

* State Sen. Chris Lauzen’s endorsement of John McCain for president is all about the negative impacts of a possible Obama administration. That’s the underlying problem with McCain’s campaign. It’s almost completely comprised of (mostly emotional) appeals about why we should vote against Obama instead of for McCain.

* Gallup on early voting trends…

Gallup’s latest update — based on interviewing conducted through Wednesday, Oct. 29 — shows that 21% of registered voters who plan to vote say they have already voted early or by absentee ballot. This percentage has been increasing steadily over the last two weeks. Another 12% of registered voters say they still plan on voting early, leaving about two-thirds of those who plan on voting who indicate they will actually vote on Election Day itself, next Tuesday.

These early voters are more likely to say they have voted for Barack Obama than for John McCain, by a 55% to 40% margin. Among those who plan to vote on Election Day, the spread is much closer — only a 48% to 45% Obama advantage.

Despite some perceptions that there may be disproportionate early voting among blacks, Gallup’s data show that black voters and white voters are roughly proportionate in their reports of already having voted.

There does, however, continue to be a significant age skew in the early voting patterns, such that older voters are significantly more likely than those who are younger to report having already voted.

* Local EV…

More than 260,000 ballots were cast in Chicago and more than 226,000 ballots were cast in the rest of Cook County during the first early voting for a presidential election in Illinois, authorities said.

* McCain’s Illinois Co-Chair Recognizes ‘Political Realities’…

Recent polls show Barack Obama with a 20-30 point lead over John McCain in Illinois. But state Representative Jim Durkin is hopeful the race will narrow significantly by Election Day. Durkin co-chairs McCain’s Illinois campaign.

DURKIN: I know the political realities of this state. If we can get it between 8 and 10 points, I think it’ll reflect incredibly on the McCain campaign in the United States.

Durkin says Republicans in Illinois are focusing their efforts on nearby battleground states. He says hundreds of McCain volunteers are travelling to Ohio and Missouri, and many others are making phone calls to swing state voters.

* The Sun-Times writes about the preparations for Obama’s Grant Park rally…

Most of the city east of the Kennedy/Dan Ryan Expressway, north of Cermak Avenue and south of Illinois Street will be shut down to accommodate an anticipated throng as great as a million.

A series of road closures will be announced Monday.

Taking your car in the area will not be a good idea.

“Please, please use public transportation if you plan on coming down,” said Ray Orozco, chief of the city’s Office of Emergency Management and Communications.

Transit officials are preparing for an event similar to the annual July 3 fireworks show, only on steroids.

Metra and the Chicago Transit Authority are packing their schedules with extra crews and service, ensuring that the rally’s impact will be felt far into the suburbs.

Loop employers are being encouraged to send their workers home at 3 p.m. on Election Day to accommodate the influx, forcing Metra to start its outbound rush hour routine a couple of hours early.

* AG Madigan to once again monitor election…

Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan says 166 teams of investigators throughout the state will be monitoring the general election.
Madigan says it’s to ensure that voting rights are protected on Tuesday.

On Sunday Madigan’s office announced that 125 teams will be assigned throughout northern Illinois including Chicago. Another 41 teams will observe activity in the rest of the state.

Investigators will be looking at any claims of voter fraud or voting irregularity.

posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 4:21 pm

Comments

Odd! He ruled out a run for Governor! The field must be that deep.

Comment by Levois Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 4:38 pm
“[Obama]’s the best I have seen, the most qualified I’ve ever seen running for president,” Fawell said.

That a Republican would make such a obviously ridiculous statement (Obama will be perhaps the least qualified President in over a century) shows how this country has become drunk with People Magazine style celebrity.

I sure hope it not be a bad hangover after Jan. 20, but I fear it will.

Infatuation says much more about the infatuated than the object of the infatuation. What is it saying here?

Comment by Bubs Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 5:05 pm
Bubs, it’s frightening how close the right-wing GOP comments about Obama come to ultra-liberal comments about Reagan from back in the day.

In essence, it was: “If the people would just wake up out of their delusion, there’s no way Reagan would be elected (or reelected, depending on the year).”

That you would assume Harris Fawell, of all people, is blind-drunk with media-based infatuation of Obama is further proof of this.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 5:17 pm
Rich, we all know Harris Fawell is a islamic radical socialist manchurian endorser.

Comment by archpundit Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 5:38 pm
Thanks Rich you said what so many people are thinking

Comment by Anon Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 5:41 pm
A novice democratic chief executive elected on a “throw them out” vote based on populist idealistic themes with an entrenched, seniority-based democratic legislature. Sounds quite a bit like Springfield for the last 6 years. How’s that going? I’ll leave the final analysis for those that can see the future. Regardless, keep dreaming, hoping and believing.

Comment by el Conquistador Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 5:48 pm
Oh, and forgot to mention all courtesy of the Chicago machine. Stayed tuned as coming litigation may sway your opinion.

Comment by el Conquistador Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 5:56 pm
Compare Obama’s decision making process to McCain’s decision making process.

McCain:

1. Can the problem be solved by threatening to use military force? If McCain believes the answer is “yes” he will use military force. If not, continue decision process.

2. Can the problem be solved by military force? If McCain believes the answer is “yes” he will use military force. If not, continue decision process.

3. “Do I need to pander to the Right Wing of the GOP on this?” If McCain believes the answer is “yes” he will pander to the Right Wing. If not, continue decision process.

4. “Do my authoritarian instincts cause me to have a knee-jerk Right Wing position on this issue?” If so, implement the Right Wing solution.

5. How can I pander to the media on this issue? Implement the media pandering.

Obama’s decision making process is a little harder to describe. This is because he uses judgment to make decisions.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 6:10 pm
I loved the Twilight Zone series too !

Comment by A Citizen Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 6:15 pm
=== Stayed tuned as coming litigation may sway your opinion.===

LOL

Just like the anti-Reaganites, man. Bizarre.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 6:18 pm
Rich, your clock still thinks it is Daylight Savings Time. Also, please remember - Republicans vote Tuesday, Dems on Wednesday as huge crowds are anticipated!

Comment by A Citizen Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 6:49 pm
Thanks. I’ll fix it later tonight. If I do it now, it’ll screw up comments.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 7:04 pm
If anything, the Chicago machine, such as it is, has been trying to latch on to Obama. He was not their guy in his 1st State Senate primary, I do not recall Obama being their guy in the US Senate primary, and Obama has had his major campaign announcements in Springfield.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 7:15 pm
Does anyone know if there has been polling done on the Con-Con issue? People I have talked to are either staunchly against it or undecided still.

Comment by HoBoSkillet Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 7:19 pm
And Rezko is the Tooth Fairy.

Comment by A Citizen Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 7:19 pm
===Does anyone know if there has been polling done on the Con-Con issue?===

Try Google.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 7:36 pm
Hmm… Google pretty much confirms what I have heard but I was hoping for something like a Rasmussen or SUSA poll on the issue. Thanks Rich.

Comment by HoBoSkillet Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 7:52 pm
“He’s the best I have seen, the most qualified I’ve ever seen running for president,” Fawell said.

In reality, out of the entire 08′ Presidential field he is the most unqualified for the office. We all know this, its just that no Democrats will admit it. Thats why Obama has the highest unqualified numbers, I believe 44%, since Dukakis ran for the job.

I will not be surprised if McCain wins this Tuesday night. Think about this, Obama is outspending McCain like 8-1 in battleground states, has more footsoldiers on the ground, it’s a horrible GOP year, Obama is the next Messiah, the media loves him, and yet the polls are close? That right there tells you that something is in the air.

It could be a very long, cold night in Chicago

Comment by scoot Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 8:03 pm
I think Obama will still win, fair and square, but it will not be quite the landslide the media have been predicting. The split will be 47-53 or 48-52 percent. Maybe a little closer than that. The Dems will pick up a few seats, of course, but not get a veto-proof Senate majority.

It will be close enough to get the point across to Obama that a lot of people still have significant disagreements and concerns about his policy proposals and his ability to lead, and that he cannot completely ignore them, unless he wants to be a one-term president. At least that’s what I’m hoping.

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 8:53 pm
Bookworm, a five-point popular vote win generally translates into an electoral vote landslide. There are problems with this history, however, since Obama is racking up huge margins in big states like NY, CA and IL. That’s probably skewing results. Right now, the average of all polls is about a 7-point lead.

Also, I don’t know anybody predicting with any sort of confidence a veto-proof in the US Senate.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 8:58 pm
While we’re on the subject, just how does one “qualify” to run for president?

If we go by educational attainment, then the most “unqualified” president of the last century was Harry Truman, who never finished college.

If we go by experience in federal level elected office or Cabinet positions, then Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush — none of whom served a single day in an elected federal government office before they became president — were all “unqualified.”

If we allow any state-level elective office to count as qualifying experience, Carter (4 years legislature plus 4 years governor in Georgia) and Reagan (8 years California governor) were the least “qualified” presidents of the last 60 years. Obama has almost 12 years experience (8 years state senate plus almost 4 years U.S. Senate) by this reckoning.

If we count only state executive (governor) experience plus any federal office, then Obama and Carter have roughly equal “qualifications.”

Now as I’ve said before, I’m not an Obama fan, and I do think he ran for president a bit too soon, but the notion that he is THE “most unqualified” candidate in decades just doesn’t hold water in my not-so-humble opinion.

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 9:11 pm
Oops, actually, if we count any state level office, then Dubya, with only 6 years as Texas governor to his name before he got elected president, would be the least qualified.

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 9:20 pm
Bookworm, I think you’re trying to qualify a subjective. Can’t be done.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 9:42 pm
Which is exactly my point. It’s not based on anything objective and can be twisted to fit just about anybody’s political preferences.

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 10:11 pm
- Bookworm -
Okay then - Make McCain the political preference…er President.

Comment by A Citizen Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 10:17 pm
If it’s your point, why argue it?

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 10:21 pm
This will narrow…we have many democrats in southern Illinois who are voting for MCcain..even democrat committeemen have mccain signs in their yards… Southern illinois will be heavy for mccain/palin ticket,,,,gary forby will also lose.

Comment by ironman Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 10:36 pm
To show how it cuts both ways. How many people currently arguing that Obama is unqualified because he’s only been in the Senate for three years would have said the same thing about Reagan or Bush Junior, who were never in Congress at all?

Citizen, McCain is unquestionably qualified in terms of length of government service. Two highly qualified presidents by that measure were Nixon and Bush Senior (both served 8 years as veep in addition to other federal level offices). But, did that make them BETTER presidents that the others I mentioned? That could be argued all night long as well but I’m not up to that.

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 10:41 pm
“Oh, and forgot to mention all courtesy of the Chicago machine.”

Come on. Weak sauce. Because going from Miner Barnhill and Galland to being a Hyde Park State Senator allied with the 4th Ward to opposing Dan Hynes (and even Blair Hull) and then taking on Hillary Clinton is the path of a Chicago Machine Pol. Nonsense.

Scoot, what, exactly are the “highest unqualified numbers.” Is that the Scoot Index?

What “qualifies” one to be president. Is there another job like it?

I wasn’t old enough to see the Reagan references Rich notes, but I have noticed so many have been so willing to believe the craziest, stupidest stuff about Obama.

As far as what’s in the air, I will say this: NOTHING is guaranteed, and nothing should be taken for granted, but if you’re still looking at the nat’l average, you’re missing the forest for the trees. Look at the states. And consider a massive field op, vs. a nearly nonexistent one (and you don’t think it matters, google “72-hour plan.”).

Comment by JonShibleyFan Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 11:06 pm
Ironman, “tightening up” is all relative, isn’t it?

McCain won’t have a sniff of IL’s EVs.

On another note, how do Vallas’ statements jibe with Dan Cronin’s plan to rescue the Cook Co GOP?

Comment by JonShibleyFan Sunday, Nov 2, 08 @ 11:08 pm
Look in the dictionary for the definition of a suburban GOP Congressman of the 70s and 80s and you’ll see a picture of Harris Fawell.

I wonder what Pate had to say.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 6:31 am
Just wondering if the Obama campaign will reimburse the City of Chicago for its costs associated with this big rally. Da Mare could use the money for trash pickup the next day.

Comment by Fan of the Game Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 9:15 am
Fan, try the Google first. The campaign is reimbursing the city.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 9:20 am
Thanks, Rich. Didn’t think Obama’s campaign would make the same silly mistake Schock’s did.

Comment by Fan of the Game Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 9:31 am