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Big margins in congressional races a surprise to me, at least

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* I think the most surprising thing about most of the state’s congressional races was the victory margins.

I figured Debbie Halvorson would win, but 58-34-7? Wow.

The same goes for Mark Kirk. He looked at the end like he might squeak this one out, but he dominated Democrat Dan Seals 54-46.

Jim Oberweis was obviously a goner. It’s obvious that people are tired of his schtick, but that’s still a pretty strong Republican district so I simply couldn’t fathom a 57-43 loss to Bill Foster.

Congresscritter Peter Roskam, who seemed to be panicking a bit in the home stretch by tying himself to Barack Obama, beat former Blagojevich administration official (which hurt her badly, of course) Jill Morgenthaler 58-42. Obama did well out there, so Roskam apparently knew what he was doing.

Aaron Schock was probably the only candidate who won with about what I privately expected, 59-38-3. With Barack Obama’s ascent, Schock may now be Illinois’ most capable campaigner.

Your thoughts about all this would be appreciated.

* Related…

* Durbin breezes to third term in U.S. Senate Durbin solidifies Senate standing Durbin overpowers Sauerberg in senate race

* Illinois Democrats make gains in Congress

* Bean coasts to third term in 8th District

* Schakowsky cruises to sixth term in Congress

* Biggert wins 6th term

* Kirk edges Seals in tight 10th District contest

* Roskam retains 6th Congressional seat

* Roskam Holds On in Western Suburbs

* Foster hangs onto 14th District Congressional seat

* Foster Wins Again in the 14th

* Schock rocks vote to become youngest congressman

* Schock wins 18th District to become youngest member of Congress

* Democrat wins GOP stronghold

* Democrat Halvorson wins GOP open seat

* Democrat Halvorson takes 11th Congressional District from Republicans

* GOP congressional Reps fight off Obama tide

* Mark Kirk Acceptance Speech

* Johnson cruises to re-election in 15th Congressional District

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:13 am

Comments

I’m kind of bummed that Al Franken lost.

Comment by Captain Flume Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:20 am
The congressional outcome is an embarrassment for Rahm Emmanuel and the DCCC. They’ve spent vast quantities of money imposing second-rate non-resident candidates on districts, and for what? Another lopsided loss in the 10th and the 6th districts.

Maybe it’s time to bring back Christine Cegelis. In any case, if the rumors about Rahm as White House Chief of Staff are true, maybe they can finally get someone at the DCCC who respects a more organic and grassroots approach to electioneering.

A splendid result for Barack.

Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:22 am
I was way off, too. Illinois voters obviously are sophisticated ticket splitters. That should serve as a warning to Illinois Dems and and as a wakeup call to the Illinois GOP to get their act together. Voters are not monolithically tied to any party. They vote the candidate.

I think Mark Kirk’s candidacy for governor starts today. Impressive win.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:23 am
Flume, the Minnesota race is by no means done yet, the margin is down to 500 votes and they’re still counting. Guaranteed mandatory recount, and it will take a month to decide this one. But it is clear that, as in every previous race involving the Independence Party, the Democrats are suffering more at the hands of the third party than the Republicans.

Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:24 am
e congressional outcome is an embarrassment for Rahm Emmanuel

If the next house Repub leader can crank out similar results as RE has, I’d take all the embarrassment I can get.

If Seals can’ win in 06 and 08, he just can’t win. Kirk is there for as long as he wants to be.

Comment by Pat Collins Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:25 am
I heard an old familiar dirge coming from the 10th District Dem’s “clebration” last night when I drove past:

Oh Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side
The summer’s gone, and all the flowers are dying
‘Tis you, ’tis you must go and I must bide.
But come ye back when summer’s in the meadow
Or when the valley’s hushed and white with snow
‘Tis I’ll be here in sunshine or in shadow
Oh Danny boy, oh Danny boy, I love you so.

Whoever it was that said that Lauren Beth Gash might need to be fitted for a straight jacket if Seals lost, better get out their tape measure. She is 0 for 5 in this race, and if she couldn’t pull it off this time, I don’t know how she would ever expect to win this as long as Kirk is the candidate.

Comment by Real Men Wear Skirts Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:26 am
I was at the Election Party for the Village of Campton Hills last night (Hopper’s Bar-B-Que in the Campton Village Square…great place) and met more than one stong Lauzen supporter who voted for Foster just to finally get rid of Oberweis.

Important for all the partisans on here to remember how real people think… which doesn’t always makes sense per the talking points, but in the long run is pretty wise.

Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:27 am
Maybe next time Rahm (or his successor) can field a candidate who actually lives in the district. Very impressive margin for Kirk.

Judy Biggert didn’t impress. I think if Cegelis ran against her instead of Roskam, she could win.

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:28 am
Miller, you are such a chicken. Trashing Roskam when he has performed as meritoriously as a politician as Obama has. And when you are called out on your snide commentary about the man, you can’t stand it. Have fun at the Inaugural; we know you are one who belies the Obama cant about unifying the masses.

Comment by Conservative Republican Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:37 am
===I think Mark Kirk’s candidacy for governor starts today. ===

I strongly agree, if only by default. The state GOP has no other viable candidates as of this date.

Comment by The Doc Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:39 am
There were no Obama coat-tails.

There is an obvious flaw in our current constitution. It needed to have an automatic calling for a constitutional convention, in order for Illinois to reform itself. The voting result clearly shows that the idea that Illinoians would see a situation as we have been witnessing over the past few years, and would vote for a constitutional convention is now obviously wrong. Our broken constitution is now even more so.

Ozinga ran as a businessman and an business expert. He was a contender until the market melted down effectively ruining any chance for this kind of candidate. The other GOPers faired nicely. Ozinga played it wrong, but no one could have predicted this October surprise. Halvorson will fit the Pelosi Congress like a glove. Hope you love taxes!

Remember what Biden and our Bill says about paying more taxes - it is your patriotic duty!

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:41 am
Schock is young and a congressman. He comes from a safe district. He will be a major political player as long as he stays clean, stays interested and grows up.

Palin/Schock in 2012!

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:43 am
The irony — out of this election the ILGOP might be re-born.

Kirk, Schock, and Roskam all look like potential winners state-wide (although Schock is going to have to grow up, and Roskam will have to work harder to hide his far right wing views).

The real question will be whether Kirk — the strongest of the three — will be trashed by the ILGOP’s far right. It would seem to their usual way of doing business. Expect to see a lot of “Kirk = RHINO” on Illinois Review. When it comes to aiming right at your own toes, nobody does it like the ILGOP.

Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:50 am
I think that you’ve under-estimated the ticket-splittiness of our state, not just a few areas that are “notorious” for it. Clearly Obama won in areas that GOP legislators also won.

The Kirk win was huge for him, I don’t see the Dems trying him again. No way Kirk runs for Governor, why would he? For the good of the party? Please. That is a suicide mission. Maybe he runs for the Senate seat, but I think Tom Cross has a head start on that one already.

Comment by siriusly Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:52 am
===That is a suicide mission.===

Probably, yes. A Kirk loss might’ve prompted him to run for statewide office. A win may not because he’d have to give up his seat.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:53 am
Not sure where this fits, but some random comment. According to CNN, there were 196,335 votes in Lake County yesterday (in the presidential race at least).

In 2004, there were over 270,000. (Source, again CNN’s presidential race).

So. . . . what’s with the 75,000 vote DECLINE?

For perspective, no other county in the state had worse than a 5,000 voter decline. And Lake County has been increasing in population.

What’s going on in Lake?

Comment by Some Guy Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:54 am
In my little Republican corner of the 11th CD, Ozinga’s epitaph will be the ER comment on accessibility to health care. Farmers also weren’t thrilled with news about his lawsuit against downstate farmer Raymond Kunkel. Given the displeasure with Bush, showing Ozinga paying to have lunch with Blago also didn’t help his campaign. Around here it wasn’t a vote of confidence for Debbie but a rejection of the good ole boy city politics represented by Ozinga.

Comment by ValleyGal Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 10:56 am
There should be a rule that anyone that loses more than 2 elections in a row can never run again. Obi is the typical poster boy for the reasons the GOP is ineffective, they keep bringing the same old people out to run.

Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:01 am
This statement doesn’t apply necessarily to state legislative races - Congress only. I think the losses the GOP sustained in Congressional races just shines a glaring spotlight on the shallow bench the IL GOP has as far as candidates go. No way either Oberweis or Ozinga should have been on the ballot. I’m not sure Lauzen would have fared any better than Oberweis, and I thought Ozinga was a bad choice from the start (had no one seen a picture of the man?!). I think the margins in those races were more a reflection of extraordinarily poor GOP candidates combined with a big Obama year than anything startlingly impressive from the Dems.

The exception to this, of course, is Schock, but he seems an anomaly - not a trend. It seems the State House and Senate are either unable or uncommitted to finding “game-changing” candidates to run for office as Republicans. It’s tough, of course, sensing an Obama wave in Illinois this year, but with a couple of exceptions like Matt Murphy or Dan Duffy, where are the “up-and-coming” new faces of the IL GOP?

Clearly change - or at least the opportunity - is at hand with Hassert losing, Emil retiring and Watson stepping down, but there really is no “fresh” member of the Senate GOP caucus to step up and be a change of direction and motivator as a leader in the Senate as far as I can tell. There are good legislators there, but I wonder if obvious choices like “Coach” have the energy to motivate and push a caucus forward. Certainly not any “Mark Kirks” there, though. Closest would be Murphy, and I’m not sure he’s been in the caucus long enough for enough members to make it happen.

As both parties usually do, with exceptions like Obama and Schock, they tend to go to the same places and find the same kind of candidates. Maybe it’s because leadership has been stagnant in both parties for so long. Maybe it’s the map. I don’t know. But I’m ready for some shaking up at the Statehouse. Some positive work at the Capitol could lead to better Congressional Candidates on both sides.

Comment by Amuzing Myself Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:06 am
Oh, I should note the 10:54 AM comment doesn’t include Cook, where vote totals are still coming in.

Only four other counties had more than a 4,000 vote dropoff (Peoria, Rock Island, Christian, and Jackson) and they all have very stable populations, going by the 2000 census and 2005 estiamtes.

Judging voter turnout in 2004 as Bush+Kerry and in 2008 as Obama+McCain, about two-thirds of Illinois’s counties had a decline. Lake’s voter decline was more than all the other 60+ counties COMBINED. In fact, it was nearly twice as much as the other’s combined downturn.

I dunno what to make of it. Just weird. Were there voter problems in Lake or something?

Comment by Some Guy Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:07 am
Mr. Miller, sir, what does Debbie Halvorson’s win do to your theory that Gov. Blagojevich is radioactive? It was a big Dem takeaway of a formerly Republican seat despite her linkage to Emil Jones and Blagojevich. Was Ozinga that bad a candidate? I don’t think that’s a sufficient explanation.

I think Blagojevich isn’t as radioactive as you thought.

Here’s a scenario: Patrick Fitzgerald won’t get fired, but he will be “promoted” out of Chicago to a high DOJ post. Maybe then RRB doesn’t get indicted. A crowded primary field in 2010… and RRB ekes out small plurality. There will probably still be no Republican Party in two years in Illinois. Radioactive Rod might actually win a third term!

Comment by The Curmudgeon Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:07 am
So, when do we notice that Sauerberg did 2% better than Keyes?

Comment by Pat Collins Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:09 am
If the dems don’t self destruct in the next election cycle, then the next reapportionment(sp?) will make an Illinois Republican Congressman as extinct as a T-Rex

Comment by The Horse Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:22 am
Remember what Biden and our Bill says about paying more taxes - it is your patriotic duty! -VanillaMan

Well, we’ll see what taxes go up and down in the future of course, but in the spirit of fiscal responsibility, I know I have to step up to the plate (and my children will have to step up to the plate) and pay for the mistakes of the Bush administration.

I don’t like it; I certainly didn’t support most of what he did, but it’s my responsibility as an American to pay for, like it or not.

I’m so sick of people acting like taxes are the plague. Grow up.

Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:24 am
Its thrilling to see Kirk survive a well deserved re-election. Seals had everything going for him: the Obama wave, a visible Obama endorsement, millions from the DCCC, dozens of anti-kirk ads being run daily, and still he lost. Not just lost, but lost by a WIDER margin than in 2006. Thankfully, the voters of the 10th appreciate effectivness and independence in their representation.
Even with the massive win in IL by Obama, he only took one additional IL Dem with him. Given the circumstances, it wasn’t a bad night for the ILGOP. If they can build from here, they have a decent shot at taking Obama’s Senate seat in 2010.

Comment by HaHa! Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:26 am
A smashing victory for Mark Kirk, swimming upstream against the Obama tide. Personally, I think he’d be an excellent Senate or gubernatorial candidate for the Republican. Oops -I forgot the Republican base does not like moderates - they want social conservatives - a sure ticket to electoral oblivion in Illinois statewide races.

Comment by Captain America Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:32 am
I live in Rep. Kirk’s district, and I think that he should run as a Democrat, since he agrees with the democrat platform more than he agrees with the republican platform. He’s pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control, pro-spending increases, anti-Iraq surge, and pro-illegal alien.

The majority of Illinois Republicans should have known that they shouldn’t support Dr. Sauerberg because the IL GOP has a record of supporting the wrong candidates. Before the 2006 governor election, many party leaders endorsed then-Treasurer Topinka. She won the primary, and, in the general election, she won about 38% of the vote. In 2004, after Jack Ryan resigned from the U.S. Senate race, the IL GOP State Central Committee chose Alan Keyes, to be the nominee. In the general election, he received 27%. Before the 2002 U.S. Senate primary, many party leaders endorsed St. Rep. Durkin. He won the primary, and, in the general election, he received 38%. Last Dec., as soon as IL GOP Chairman McKenna and the State Central Committee endorsed Sauerberg, the republican primary voters should have known that they should support a different candidate.

Comment by ConservativeVeteran Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:37 am
Horse: that’s a point that needs more discussion. Illinois will lose one, maybe two seats after the 2010 census. If we still have a Dem gov in 2010, plus huge Dem majorities in the House and Senate, the map will look a lot different than in 2002 when George Ryan could rein in the Dem mapmakers.

So, which Congressmen are most threatened by a remap in bright blue Illinois?

Comment by ilrino Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:40 am
One thing irritated me about Kirk’s victory - his promise to hold Barack Obama accountable. I heard John Boehner of Ohio use the same language of accountability.

All’s I can do is observe the hypocrisy of the new Republican gospel of accountability. They refused to exercise the Congressional powers of oversight of the Bush adminstration. Hence Bush-Cheney were given carte blanche on almost everything for six years.

Nothing wrong with transparency, accoutability, and oversight. I’m defintiely in favor a a restoration of the checks and balances. If Republican Congressional leaders had not rubber-stamped Bush-Cheney actions, they would have fared much better in yesterday’s national election.

Comment by Captain America Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:41 am
One thing irritated me about Kirk’s victory - his promise to hold Barack Obama accountable…. . If Republican Congressional leaders had not rubber-stamped Bush-Cheney actions, they would have fared much better in yesterday’s national election.

For darn sure. So, you are mad they learned a lesson and plan to apply it?

Comment by Pat Collins Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:47 am
They refused to exercise the Congressional powers of oversight of the Bush adminstration.

You weren’t watching McCain grill Rumsfeld over the war than…

Your right though that Congress has been the institution that’s failed Americans the most over the past eight years.

It’s going to be interesting to see if Reid and Pelosi fail Obama which is why RE so interesting a pic as COS… he can manage those two.

It’s going to be hard to sell RE as change though.

Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:48 am
{It seems the State House and Senate are either unable or uncommitted to finding “game-changing” candidates to run for office as Republicans. It’s tough, of course, sensing an Obama wave in Illinois this year, but with a couple of exceptions like Matt Murphy or Dan Duffy, where are the “up-and-coming” new faces of the IL GOP?}

Other than districts with seats already held by non-retiring Republican incumbents, the Illinois House consists of a substantial number of seats held by districts in the City of Chicago; and many of them held by African Americans or Hispanics where Republicans simply can not win due to the inability and/or unwillingness to deliver patronage.

Take a look at the district maps for the adjoining and inner ring suburbs as well. All of these have been carefully drawn with Democratic leaning majority populations providing a distinct advantage in the electorate, which translates into a significant disadvantage in fund raising.

An addition to the city and Crook County patronage armies, Democrats receive almost monololithic support from the labor unions whose laws and regulations they establish and enact. The unions not only provide substantial money, but armies of field campaign workers, and other resources like phone banks for “free”.

In order to make gains the Republicans should only recruit young up and coming women candidates, and only to run in the races against older male Democratic incumbents. I would encourage them to look at women on school boards with some business experience as well, rather than just the endless parade of lawyers looking to raise their profile. These school boards can be fertile ground for those with some built in issue experience that they can then go sell to women voters regardless of party affilition.

Men will vote for either a man or a woman. Women voters will look carefully; but all things being equal (at least in their own minds) women will more often vote for a woman candidate over a man. The same can be said for those that don’t take the time to look that carefully, but automatically perceive the woman candidate to be the lesser of two evils.

They need to start around the edges first by picking off some old lazy Democratic men.

Comment by Rand McNally Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:50 am
Ilrino- In addition to IL losing one or 2 seats, the population has shifted a lot since 2000. The 11th, 13th and 14th have gained a lot of people, and everyone else has held steady or shrunk. As always, it depends on who draws the map. All 3 growth districts could easily be gerrymandered to cater to one party or the other.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:54 am
I don’t understand the big deal about Schock. McCain carried IL-18 over favorite son Barack Obama. That is all you need to know about the makeup of that district. There is a reason why there hasn’t been a Democrat elected in that District since 1916.

Comment by Brian G Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:55 am
Interesting reading Baar’s comments.

He was the guy predicting a massive McCain win and oblivion for the entire Democratic Party.

Those predictions did not pan out so well.

Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:57 am
Rich- The 14th isn’t as R as it once was. For gosh sakes, a Democrat finally got on the Kendall County Board (this after the county party was disbanded in the ’90’s due to a lack of interest). If Sen. Lauzen gets his coveted chance to run against Foster in 2010, a similar result may occur. And that’s even before a redistricting of the 14th that may wind up to be more D-friendly.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:00 pm
=== For gosh sakes, a Democrat finally got on the Kendall County Board===

That would prove my point more than yours. One does not a “blue” county make.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:02 pm
But “One” is a trend that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago. A D-leaning mayor of Yorkville, for two. A handful of County Board D candidates that came close, three. BTW, Foster carried Kendall County pretty handily, too.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:10 pm
People don’t throw out their incumbent congresspersons without good reason. it’s the old Congress is bad, by my guy/gal is good routine. And in the 6th and the 10th, those people are rabid about splitting their ticket, it makes them feel warm and fuzzy inside.

Comment by Gadfly Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:16 pm
C’mon, Pat, there wasn’t a “lesson” to be learned. Congressional oversight is inherent in the Constitution’s separation of powers.

The GOP Congress chose not to exercise oversight because they were bought off with pork barrel like Denny Hastert’s Transportation Bill.

It’s the duty of Congress, Dem and GOP alike, to exercise oversight of a profoundly powerful executive, no matter who it is.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:28 pm
No surprises. I knew Ozinga would lose, although 20+ points is a ton. I also thought Kirk-Seals would be closer than 8 points.

I called the Schock margin a long time ago. He has a very bright future. Since Illinois has no campaign donation restrictions, imagine what he can do in a statewide race.

Two other quick-hits:

1. Kirk will not run statewide.

2. Lauzen runs again in 2010.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:29 pm
He was the guy predicting a massive McCain win and oblivion for the entire Democratic Party.

I don’t think I ever predicted a McCain win much less a massive one.

I heard Bob Novak shortly after 911 say in speech that consevatism as he knew it was gone. The demands of war would kill. And I think he was right.

Same will go for Liberalism too.

Biden was on mark predicting the coming test of Obama (and him). Let’s see how he handles it and who here will be with him. (Biden suggested not many and I suspect that means Obama / Biden contemplating pretty kinetic responses.)

I promise you Liberalism at the end of this four years will look nothing like it does today. Whether it takes the Democrats with it, I don’t know… but it’s going to be a trying four years for Liberals.

That’s what happens when you win sometimes.

Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:49 pm
The 11th was an indication of what could have happened had the DCCC put some muscle behind opposition to Weller.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:49 pm
i’m a dem, but the Seals loss does not surprise. he’s kind of a lightweight and since the district likes to balance unless you have something big, they stay with the moderate republican.
don’t think Rahm is currently in charge of the DCCC. didn’t he pass that on to a Rep. from Maryland, Van Hoellen?

Comment by Amy Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:52 pm
Curmudgeon, re the Blago-is-radioactive theory…

Halvorson neutralized any possible ties to the guv by highlighting where she had stood up to the Blago administration.

Moreover, her opponent, as a Republican, donated a large sum to Blagojevich which effectively neutralized her own less direct ties to Blago.

The DCCC was able to clearly connect the Republican Ozinga to Blago and even to Bush’s policies, and very effectively (clearly).

Same trend could be seen on a local level in IL-66 where the Dems tied the Republican candidate to radioactive Todd Stroger through a series of high visibility TV ads and mailers (and where the Dem candidate was actually circulating a petition calling for the repeal of the Stroger Tax as he went door to door campaigning).

Same strategy: the Dem highlights where and how they differ with the radioactive incumbent X (Blago or Stroger) and simultaneously ties the GOP opponent to radioactive incumbent X.

Stroger and Blago were highly radioactive this year — for both Dems and a few GOPs — and likely will continue to be until one cycle after they’re gone.

–

Disclosure: I volunteered for and am friends with Mark Walker, the Dem candidate in IL-66. He won by 4 pts in a Republican, suburban/northwest Cook County district.

Comment by Rob_N Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:53 pm
I think some of those suburban margins (Congress and Springfield leges) are a reflection of sourness on Blago and Stroger.

I had a handful of voters tell me yesterday they were regular Ds but “not this year, except for Obama” and I’d venture a guess it was a big trend.

Is there any exit polling asking about Blago/Stroger?

Comment by Rob_N Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:57 pm
===CNN, there were 196,335 votes in Lake County yesterday === Some Guy. Maybe CNN was using Lake County Indiana numbers. They show around 206,000 votes on their web site today for Lake Co. Indiana. The Lake County “Illinois” Election Board shows 296,339 people voted for President yesterday.

Comment by Been There Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:58 pm
My bet is McConnaughy goes after Foster next go around.

Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 12:59 pm
I was pleased to see the outcomes as they were because I think they reflect that people will vote a split ticket if need be.
In the Halverson race I voted for Ozinga simply because I didn’t think that Halverson should be rewarded for her blind support of Blago. However there was a time that I thought I would vote for Halverson because it would get her out of the Illinois Legislature and she would be ineffective at the national level anyway. Hopefully the Republicans will slate a truly legitimate candidate to oppose her in the future and not just one who won’t need their money to run a campaign.
I think Schock’s victory had a lot to do with LaHood’s support. Without that he doesn’t beat the Obama tsunami.
I think a lot of the outcomes we saw had more to do with people who were voting against anyone tied to Blago, and against anyone who was tied to the Republican administration or who might be hard line partisan against Obama in Washington. The exceptions were those Republicans that spoke against the Republican Administration and tied themselves to Obama.
I may be naive but I think the outcomes we are seeing portray thinking voters, which is refreshing.
Rich, I am afraid the Con-con was one thing that did not reflect that trend. I believe the scare tactic that those in power in Springfield would run the Con-con was the killer. People just don’t trust anyone down there anymore.

Comment by Irish Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 1:08 pm
Hey Rich. I was by far the the most accurate in yesterday’s predictions post. I demand a ride in the Obamalac as my prize!

Comment by phocion Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 1:19 pm
My bet is McConnaughy goes after Foster next go around.

She would probably fare better than Lauzen or Cross, if she so desired.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 1:22 pm
phocion, you’ll have to take that up with my dad.

As I’ve told others, I have zero involvement with Obamalac booking arrangements.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 1:26 pm
My take it that voters said they wanted change, but they really didn’t. If they HAD wanted change they would have voted out all the incumbents and voted for the constitutional convention. What they wanted was no more George Bush. I supported McCain and now join the loyal opposition. Good luck President-elect Obama. To paraphrase your campaign slogan, I hope you can.

Comment by The Mad Hatter Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 2:25 pm
I think Schock’s victory had to do with Schock. He started by building a strong, supportive voting block in Peoria (and a cheering section with the local media). Inexperience, good looks, and personality are his selling points. (Inexperience seems to allow the media and voters to give him a pass whenever he messes up.) Go figure.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 2:26 pm
One person I forgot to mention as a “to watch for” Congressional candidate in 2010? Steve Preston. Don’t put it past him to run against Bean.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 2:29 pm
Obie, please give up the politics. Stick to your delicious ice cream.
Seals’ loss was no surprise. He was hoping to ride the Obama train into office. Kirk has been a responsible and principled politician.

Comment by Jake from Elwood Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 3:27 pm
————
I promise you Liberalism at the end of this four years will look nothing like it does today. Whether it takes the Democrats with it, I don’t know… but it’s going to be a trying four years for Liberals.
============

Yup. No way around it when a foundation’s built on a solid block of idealism. Reality will kick in end of 2010.

My guess is that it will affect the Democrats. They’ll have their own version of moderates v. conservatives–and it’s going to be overwhelmingly devastating.

Primary squabble: $$

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 5, 08 @ 11:56 pm