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Christine Cegelis, who ran a strong but unsuccessful campaign against Henry Hyde last time around, posted a diary yesterday at Daily Kos which talked about Hyde’s retirement announcement.

Frankly, I don’t think she has a very good chance now that Hyde is gone, but I’m curious what you think. So, the question today is, can Cegelis win her second time around?

One sidenote: Cegelis must have been caught flat-footed by the announcement (even though we had all heard it would be coming in mid-April) because her website is down for remodeling. Oops.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 7:56 am

Comments

This is a pretty appalling comment, even when made in a political arena:

“While we suspected for some time that Congressman Hyde would not run for re-election, we just didn’t know if the next ballots would be cast in 2006, or in a 2005 special election.”

She should be ashamed of herself for writing this. A very unclassy thing to say.

Louis G. Atsaves

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 8:19 am
I don’t see Cegelis winning in 2006, but the election is a long way off and much could change between now and then.

DuPage County today is not the DuPage County of 20 years ago. Voters in DuPage County demonstrated in recent elections they are more willing to support Democratic candidates and that trend is likely to continue in 2006.

A “moderate” Republican candidate might cut into the recent Democratic gains, win the seat, and hold it for years to come.

I followed Cegelis’ last campaign. While she posted good vote totals, there’s a good deal of room for improvement in her organization and style. Melissa Bean showed a strong candidate can make the necessary improvements. It remains to be seen if Cegelis is capable of making the improvements she needs to adopt to improve her chances in 2006.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 8:36 am
Louis,

Nice try. But I think it is pretty clear that Cegelis’ comment was in regard to Hyde stepping down to take the position of ambassador to the Vatican, rather than due to his much-denied health problems.

But if you are looking for actual instances of “unclassy,” check out the Salon article entitled “This hypocrite broke up my family”

Comment by So-Called Austin Mayor Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 9:09 am
Despite recent gains, the Democratic bench in DuPage is still pretty thin — which is a big boost for Cegelis. Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but I found it interesting that neither Rahm Emanuel or any other established Dem was quoted supporting Cegelis in the Hyde stories this morning. There must be someone from the Cook portions of the district that can give her a run in the primary, but I don’t know enough about the district to say who that candidate might be.

Speaking of Dem Congressional primaries, is anyone going to challenge Dan Lipinski? I saw him on a local cable access show a few months back and came a way with the notion that he is in way over his head. Crain’s mentioned this week that State Reps Dan Burke and Kevin Joyce were thinking about running. Of course, both of them would have trouble attacking Lipinski on the nepotism issue — something he is very vunerable on given the sneaky way his dad kissed him in.

Hey, rich, how ’bout a future “question of the day” on this?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 10:08 am
It’s an uphill battle to be sure. A moderate Republican takes that District pretty easily, but a true social conservative makes it a race.

Her first challenge is to raise money and having talked to her, she understands that is the key early. My criticism of her past effort was simply that she didn’t have the cash. Her organization surprised me with its effeciveness during the general. She ran a hell of a ground game and I think that speaks well.

Her biggest liability assuming she solves the money problem is her past statements that are farther to the left than that district is. Bean was careful in avoiding controversial statements in her first run and that helped position her as apolitical in round two, but for better services making somewhat moderate to conservative voters willing to get her a look.

Christine ran to the left and has some issues on taxes and the war that won’t be as easy of a sale, so we’ll have to see how she handles them.

Three things out of her control may be key. First, is the DeLay scandal machine still going on–and if Roskam is the candidate, is he able to escape from being tarred with DeLay? Is social security still an effective issue? What is going on in the Governor’s race? The last is too complex to figure.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 10:13 am
I tend to agree with Arch. If the GOP primary is a bloodbath, and the country clubbers and the falangists are sore at each other, then Cegelis is favored. If the primary is relatively civil, coalesces around someone not perceived as Attila the Hun and is a woman, the GOP may keep this one. It will be close (~2%) in any case in ‘06.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 11:10 am
BTW, the web site is because she is significantly updating it-Klau is doing the work and it looks good so far.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 11:36 am
If … the country clubbers and the falangists are sore at each other …

I learned a new word today. Nice choice.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 1:28 pm
Cegelis has no chance.

The only reason she got as many votes as she did was because Bean was running against Crane.

Cegelis benefited from the image of an old, out-of-touch male congressman, a message that Bean spent big money to get across.

She has under 40k in the bank right now, which is pathetic and has not shown the ability to rasie the real money that it will take to win this race. Dedicated volunteers are great, but unless they can put you on TV it’s not going to do it.

A moderate Democrat like Bean might be able win the seat, but Cegelis is no moderate.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 2:35 pm
To the extent the Dems can nationalize the 2006 election, Cegelis has the best chance of anyone in Illinois at picking up a seat for the Dems. Her name recognition is significanly higher than Roskam’s. And although she doesn’t have a ton of money yet (keep in mind, the election isn’t for another 18+ months), there is plenty of Chicago and burb money looking for a candidate who can make a difference.

I’ve started volunteering with her campaign and have been impressed by the amount of energy so many people have. Do you know anyone else in IL with as advanced a campaign at this stage?

Comment by Jonathan Kelley Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 4:08 pm
Kelley makes a good point about Cegelis’ relatively decent name recognition and the fact that she has a campaign aperatus already in place. But the fact that Rahm didn’t get out in front for her is telling. Maybe Arch is right about her being too far left for the district.
If I were Rahm or one of the boys at the DCC, I’d think about recruiting a semi-celebrity type for the race…maybe a news anchor or sports figure…someone who could really take advantage of the name recognition edge he or she would have over Roskam.
Celeb candidates are risky for all the obvious reasons, but the fact that such a candidate would bring a blank political slate would help in a GOP leaning district. It’s worked in a lot of other states, why not try it here? It may sound goofy, but my gut tells me Cegelis can’t pull this off. And like the earlier post said, the Dem bench is thin in DuPage. Any one have any names to suggest?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 4:35 pm
I don’t know why this is the question. There are other people that are going to run in this primary. I hear there is an arbitrator named Peter O’Malley, a family man from the district that is going to run. He is smart, a public servant and can win the seat.

I think we should stop assuming that Cegelis is the only game in town!

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 4:36 pm
It is a GOP seat; remember this is a one party system thanks to the Republican Congressional remap by Tom Delay I mean Denny.

Comment by Milton Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 6:00 pm
Cegelis has a campaign under her belt and name recognition but she is not the best candidate. She easily won the Primary against Tom Berry, an implausable and problematic candidate who didn’t even live in the District. The DuPage County Democratic Party endorsed her because there wasn’t anyone else. And they are continuing to support her despite other more qualified candidates.
I’ve heard about Peter O’Malley as well. I look forward to what he has to offer.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 6:42 pm
Christine Cegelis can not win the 6th District. She is a nice person, but will pale in comparison to Peter Roscam or whomever the Rebublicans run.

If Cegalis did happen to win, could she represent the 6th District?

Ask yourself, is she up to going toe to toe with the likes of Tom Delay? No!

We need a strong candidate to take the 6th District in November!

I’d like to know more about this Peter O’Malley. He seems like a good posibility.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 6:56 pm
I hear Peter O’Malley plays a mean game of golf. Not quite sure about his residency though…

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 7:19 pm
Christine lacks Melissa’s charisma, and Christine will lack a tired old warhorse as an opponent.

One name from the Cook County side is Brian McPartlin, a Dem who ran for Cook County Board in ‘02 and who now is a top tollway honcho.

If Dems really think the 6th could be won next year, then stronger candidates will likely emerge.

Comment by FightforJustice Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 7:23 pm
The one major variable here to consider: the top of the ticket. Thanks to Kerry/Obama vs. Bush/Keyes, Democrats made inroads farther into the suburbs last year than they can expect in the future. I suspect Cegelis maybe hit a ceiling in ‘04.

I don’t dispute the 6th is more in play than anyone ever thought it could be even 20 years ago. But if the GOP doesn’t screw it up, it’s still their seat to lose. An intelligent campaign that’s well-funded from the top down (which a Roskam candidacy would certainly be all three of those things) woudl be hard to beat. Not to mention Ray LaHood leading the top of the ticket… The talk of a Democrat winning the 6th district is appealing, but it’s not gonna happen.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 8:48 pm
There is an intense aversion to Chicago and Cook Co Democrats by the DuPage Co. Dem leaders. Not sure how this translates to the voters since the DuPage Co Democratic Party is ineffective and disorganized. There has only been one local Democrat elected in the past 10 years and she was a sympathy vote. Had some kind of neurological problem and unfortunately was not capable of serving with much effectiveness and was defeated after one term.
If I was Christine I’m not sure I’d want the DuPage Party in my corner. They unexplainably rejected several well-qualified candidates in favor of Christine.
They did very little to help Brent Christensen when he ran in 2000.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 8:50 pm
I’ve heard some good things (granted not too much) about this O’Malley guy recently - need a closer look under the hood before declaring the guy a bonafide candidate for this seat.

Making a second run certainly worked for Melissa Bean but mostly because she had the pleasure of running against a tired, out-of-touch incumbent like Phil Crane. Cegelis does not have that same luxury and presents a much weaker candidacy. Her 2004 operation was amateur at best.

Voters in the district took a good look at Cegelis and decided she’s not enough to compel GOP-leaning voters to skip across that ballot and punch Democrat for Congress.

I’m hearing that, assuming he raises a boatload of money quick (Cegelis has a pittance), O’Malley COULD make a strong run for this seat…

Cegelis lost and is yesterday’s news. That’s why Rahm, Schak and the rest haven’t been pimping for her this week - at a time when Chicago media are actually thirsty to write about this race…

If a certain right-wing state senator snags the GOP nod in the Primary (as expected) - this COULD be a fun race to watch - but only with a new Democrat on the ballot in 2006.

Comment by Tom DeLay's Mom Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 8:54 pm
Peter Roskam is a current IL State Senator with a built in publicty machine. And he has a couple of sideshows that make God-fearing, flag waving Republicans lose control of their senses. One is his traveling 9-11 flag show and the other is his parents. They travel the country trying to return
American GI dog tags they found in a marketplace while vacationing in Viet Nam. Although the US Gov’t has stated they cannot vouch for the authenticity of the dog tags they remain resolute in their mission.
If Roskam is the candidate, he would be easier to beat than a Dan Cronin who appeals to voters across all parties.
Peter O’Malley may be the Democrats cross-over candidate. Cegelis went too far to the left.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 9:10 pm
Raising money is the problem for any Democrat in the District. Money’s got to come from outside the area and help is needed from the State and National Party.

The GOP rakes in piles of it from the District’s very wealthy residents.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 19, 05 @ 9:19 pm
This post has been removed by the author.

Comment by DownLeft Wednesday, Apr 20, 05 @ 5:28 pm
I like Christine and I like her politics, which probably makes her too liberal for the district. She was a Kucinich supporter in the ‘04 primary after all.

Then again, I think Obama did a lot to disprove the notion that being a “play it safe” moderate who stands for nothing is the way to win votes for Democrats in Illinois.

She has a chance if she hires an experienced campaign manager and a very good campaign staff early on. If she hires an amatuer to run her campaign, like Kucinich did, she’ll get nowhere. The only chance a candidate like her has to win is to organize very well.

Comment by DownLeft Wednesday, Apr 20, 05 @ 5:29 pm
I support Christine.

O’malley is just a schill for the Chicago centric Democratic party. They are a corrupt bunch. The only reason they havent fallen appart is they haven’t gotten caught, unlike the republicans. Blago is very unpopular in my area and his handing out contracts as political rewards is going to kill him. Daley with the hired truck scandal and mel with his landfill are not wanted in the district. It is bad enough twith the corrupt republicans do we really need corrupt democrats as well.

O’malley is a lawyer and was recruited to extend Chicago into the suburbs.

By the way Christine does live in Cook county.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Apr 28, 05 @ 5:28 pm
Those of us who are Democrats need to elect not just any candidate who runs under our party’s banner, but candidates who we can trust to remain on our side once they get elected. Melissa Bean was a great money-raiser, but she stabbed us in the back by voting for the Republican Debt Slavery act.

I live in the Sixth District and fully support Cegelis. I think she has an excellent chance to win, but even if that weren’t true I’d still choose her over a DLC hack whose only known advantage is his willingness to sell out for corporate cash.

Comment by Gary Kleppe Wednesday, May 4, 05 @ 9:55 am
Where is this information about O’Malley being the DLC’s man coming from?
Cegelis’ campaign, no doubt.

Comment by bmk Friday, May 6, 05 @ 7:52 pm
so who is this mcpartlin and does he have a chance?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 11, 05 @ 9:48 pm
Can someone who lives in the District give an opinion?

Peter Roskam is quite well known in the District and is ramping up his “campaign” at this time. He’s going to be at several Memorial Day events and other such media opportunities close to the hearts of even moderate Republicans.

Cegelis did as well as she did last time around primarily because of Hyde’s age, rumored infirmity, and complacency of Hyde’s campaign effort. How will she do against a young, charismatic, Republican, who already has an extensive outreach to Hispanics and other traditional Democratic blocs, (that Hyde rarely reached out to)?

Not well. Not well at all.

Comment by Anonymous Sunday, May 29, 05 @ 7:07 pm
I live in the district and bmk, to answer your question: The idea that O’Malley is the DLC’s man is coming from the fact that he’s going around to Democratic functions telling people that Rahm Emanuel told him to run, as if that’s a good thing. Remember how the DuPage Dems feel about Chicago Democrats…

Comment by Caitlin Thursday, Jun 9, 05 @ 5:29 am
Cegelis is a hard worker and got 44% of the vote without any real coat tails from Obama. I checked the figures and she did well and won in many precincts that did not go Democratic for the major offices above her. She is genuine and comes across as sincere and committed. The O’Malley candidacy is surprising to me because in 2000 he really did not work very hard in the race for a County Board spot when the GOP was split and 2 newcomers were running. His results (a distance 4 of 4) showed that he did not make the effort. Cegelis will win the primary but we’ll see how split the GOP becomes in their primary and how it affects their supporters in November. It will be close in November regardless.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 30, 05 @ 4:11 pm