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New poll numbers for US Senate, Ryan ‘pardon’UPDATED X1

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Illinois
Polls
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Durbin

* Rasmussen Reports has a couple of new polls out today. The first has Attorney General Lisa Madigan leading all candidates for US Senate…

Among all Illinois residents, Madigan attracts 25% support, closely followed by [Congressman] Jackson with 23%. Duckworth is next with the backing of 21%. Schakowksy has seven percent (7%) support, with [Emil] Jones at three percent (3%). Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.

Among Democrats, however, Jackson leads…

The Chicago congressman who has been openly campaigning for the job has the support of 36% of Illinois Democrats, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state taken Tuesday night.

Tammy Duckworth, director of Illinois’ Department of Veterans Affairs, is next with the backing of 29%, followed by state Attorney General Lisa Madigan with 17%.

Frankly, it’s interesting to see Duckworth doing so well in a statewide poll.

* More…

Madigan is the leader among men with 28% support, while Jackson is the favorite of a plurality of women (29%). Next for women is Madigan with 22% backing. Second for men is Duckworth (24%), who gets 19% support among women. Just 15% of men support Jackson.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of African-Americans favor Jackson, compared to 10% of whites. Madigan gets the highest level of white support (31%), followed by Duckworth with 22%. Statistically, Madigan has 0% support among blacks.

* And the guv still isn’t popular…

Just 15% now say Blagojevich is doing a good or excellent job as governor, while 61% rate his performance as poor.

* Meanwhile…

Two-thirds of adults in Illinois (66%) are opposed to a presidential pardon for former Governor George Ryan, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Just 23% say Ryan, the Republican convicted on federal corruption charges in 2006, should be pardoned. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. […]

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of men favor a pardon for Ryan, compared to 19% of women. Seventy percent (70%) of whites oppose a pardon, compared to 22% who support it. Blacks are closely divided, with those opposed to a pardon having just a four-point edge.

Members of Ryan’s own political party are more unforgiving than his former political opponents. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Republicans oppose a pardon versus 59% of Democrats. Twenty-six percent (26%) of both parties favor pardoning Ryan. Among those unaffiliated with either major political party, just 15% support a pardon, while 77% oppose one.

Opposition to a pardon generally rises with income level.

Except Ryan isn’t asking for a full pardon, so the poll is flawed.

*** UPDATE 1 *** [Posted by Kevin Fanning] Joe Birkett enters the debate over Ryan’s possible commutation with a letter to President Bush:

While we empathize with Ryan’s family and their plight, I do not believe the hardships they face in his absence are reason enough to free inmate George Ryan. All inmates have families, not just those who led privileged lives prior to their incarceration. The suffering faced by former Governor Ryan’s family is no greater than that experienced by the families of thousands of other inmates across Illinois. That Senator Durbin would ask for special treatment for a man who for decades enjoyed special treatment at the expense of taxpayers is a slap in the face of justice.

[…]

Please help Illinois restore its once proud image of open, honest government by denying Senator Durbin’s request for leniency for a pubic official who has disgraced himself and the great state of Illinois.

* And John Patterson takes us on a stroll down memory lane like only he can…

Turns out, Gov. Rod Blagojevich had a nose for corruption back when he was in Congress.
The Chicago Democrat sat on a House committee looking into President Bill Clinton’s last-minute pardons, including the controversial pardon of fugitive financier Marc Rich.

Rich’s wife gave more than $1 million to the Democratic Party and nearly $500,000 to Clinton’s presidential library.
Blagojevich said at the time he thought the pardon was shady. He apparently could see a conflict of interest at that time when it came to massive donations and the distribution of government largesse.

“I think the pardon would not have happened if not for the campaign contributions,” Blagojevich was quoted as saying then.
Blagojevich also made clear then that he thought Rich’s pardon was an abuse of presidential power. He called it “indefensible and reprehensible.”

Funny how things change.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 12:45 pm

Comments

===Except Ryan isn’t asking for a full pardon, so the poll is flawed.===

His wife is asking for one. And, really, that’s what the unrepentant (or only weakly repentant) former Gov. would prefer. If he really wanted a commutation, he would have come out weeks ago with a full admission of responsibility, but such a move would preclude a pardon.

As for Durbin, making this high profile and moving the discussion to commutation is playing out in a way that might well keep Ryan in jail. If Durbin hadn’t spoken out, maybe Ryan would have gotten a quiet pardon right around X-mas. There would have been outrage, but it would have been too late.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:00 pm
That’s a 7-fold increase in the number of people who think the Governor is doing an “excellent” job.

I don’t think I have ever seen anyone ever see their “excellent” rating increase by 700% in one month!

Overall, I would consider this a “fair” poll.

Comment by GoBearsss Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:22 pm
If it must be an American of African descent to be the next Senator (a fair question is why must it?), then please not JJJ. Good Lord, we have enough problems in Illinois politics without dipping lower.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:23 pm
Yeah, GoBearsss, stick with that. Crowing about a 15 percent approval rating. Good one.

lol

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:27 pm
I would like to take this opportunity to declare that I am of African American descent.
Congratulations Governor Blagojevich on your meteoric rise in the poll.

Comment by Bill Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:31 pm
Bill, is that South Africa?

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:34 pm
Its a surge Rich. A surge!

Comment by GoBearsss Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:38 pm
Hey Rich, why is it interesting that Tammy is polling so well? She’s pretty darn popular statewide, and she got a good national presence during the DNC.

Comment by Wonderboy Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:55 pm
Wonderboy, because she’s only run once for Congress and lost, and holds a relatively low-profile agency post. I haven’t seen the crosstabs of that poll yet, but I’m wondering how much of her support comes from the city/suburbs and how much from Downstate.

Don’t get me wrong, I believe she’s a fine person and would likely make a decent US Senator. I’m just a bit surprised she polls so well.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 1:58 pm
Ah, I gotcha Rich, that makes sense.

Frankly speaking I suspect it’s the support of younger urbanites and liberals (like me) who are attracted to her ultra-minority status (female, asian-american, disbaled, veteran) and the progessive symbol she might stand for. That on top of the moderate and Republican support she gets for her veteran status.

Comment by Wonderboy Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:07 pm
I too am interested in seeing how Downstate voters view Duckworth. When this topic comes up there have been a few posters that indicate they believe she has “downstate support”, but having lost one congressional race and being Veteran’s Affairs director, I’m just not sure anyone in Bloomington, Champaign, Effingham, etc. has even heard of her, much less enthusiastic about sending her to DC. Frankly, I don’t think anyone south of I-80 knows who she is.

Comment by Gene Parmesan Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:13 pm
How did Blagoof gain 2%, did they fudge the numbers?

Comment by Dan S, a Voter and Cubs Fan Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:14 pm
Gene Parmesan, first off, great Arrested Development name.

Second, I believe that’s true. My family in Bloomington has no idea who she is until I filled them in. Tammy made all the State Fair stops, but her involvement below I-80 has been pretty minimal.

But she’s well-known and popular in Chicago, collar-counties and suburbs, and northern IL cities, the places that make the state blue and carry considerable sway.

Comment by Wonderboy Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:16 pm
Gene Parmesan - Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:13 pm: , I know who she is thanks to the always informative Capitol Fax Blog and I live downstate.

Comment by Dan S, a Voter and Cubs Fan Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:16 pm
=== a relatively low-profile agency post ===

What percent of Illinois voters can name even one member of Rod’s cabinet?

You’re right Rich, Duckworth’s numbers are impressive. I’d heard from a lot of folks that veterans around the state really love her…now I’m starting to believe it.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:17 pm
Dan S., as a fellow Downstate CapFax reader, I think we can agree that we are a special breed. Do many of your neighbors know who she is?

Comment by Gene Parmesan Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:20 pm
Downstate folks have heard of Duckworth. And vets are predisposed to like her until convinced otherwise. Her quals for senator are unusually thin - thin being usual these days. Politics aside, I think any of the constitutional officers would be a better fit for this job. But whoever it is should be a real senator, not a placeholder.

Comment by Excessively rabid Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:23 pm
How did Blagoof gain 2%, did they fudge the numbers?,/i>

There’s always a little turbulence at the bottom.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:43 pm
Obama’s replacement should be someone who has congressional experience. If Blago. wants to choose a woman, he should choose Rep. Schakowsky. She was a state rep. for six years, and she’s been a U.S. rep. for 10 years, so far.

Comment by Phil Collins Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:56 pm
You cant get more downstate than me today, and I am a capitol fax reader. I’m heading to Cairo later this evening! Beat that!

Comment by Speaking At Will Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 3:11 pm
Gene Parmesan - Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 2:20 pm: That was hummor, was just giving the teacher an apple so to speak. LOL

Comment by Dan S, a Voter and Cubs Fan Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 3:16 pm
Looks like the Governor learned his lessons well.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 4:36 pm
“enjoy special treatment at the expense of taxpayers” Can’t that be said about most politicians?

Comment by I'mTellingYou Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 4:38 pm
The amazing thing for me is how the Information Age has made everyone’s life an open book. We can now perform electronic searches for every political animal’s previous situational ethics and bring them to light when our cognitive dissonance kicks in.

Oh, and the gov now has a ready-made reason to ship LM off to DC to clear the deck if he so chooses. She’s the People’s Choice!

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Dec 4, 08 @ 7:27 pm