Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Poll: 66 percent say do special election; GOP candidate news; Daley reacts to issue

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls
Obama

* A new poll commissioned by the Illinois Republican Party finds strong support for a special election…

Two-thirds (66%) of the electorate favors the state legislature passing a new law requiring a special election to fill Barack Obama’s unexpired term as US Senator rather than letting the Governor pick the next US Senator. Only 26% oppose a special election.

This large majority support for a special election is strongest among Republicans (74%) but is also strong among Democrats (64%) and Independents (65%). In the collar counties and downstate, the support for a special election is huge (71% and 70% respectively).

* And this is what I’ve been talking about when I say that anyone with close or even not-so-close ties to Blagojevich is severely tainted in voters’ minds…

70% of voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate for office in Illinois who supported or endorsed Rod Blagojevich’s reelection for Governor in 2006 even though he was already under investigation for 3-years.

The “less likely to vote” result is strongest among Republicans (82%) but is also strong among Democrats (66%), Independents (66%), and voters in Cook County (65%), City of Chicago (65%) and the collar counties (76%). Clearly, Democrats who are tied to Blagojevich are vulnerable.

* More…

An overwhelming majority (79%) believes things in Illinois are headed off on the wrong track. Only 14% thinks things are going in the right direction. This very strong negative sentiment cuts across party lines.

Regardless of party affiliation, most Illinois voters (88%) have an unfavorable opinion of Rod Blagojevich. Only 8% has a favorable opinion of him.

* Methodology…

This Illinois statewide survey of 600 likely voters was conducted on December 15, 2008 by McLaughlin & Associates. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone.

* Click the pic for a better look at the internals…

* We also have some info on a couple of potential GOP gubernatorial candidates. From Crain’s…

The Illinois Chamber of Commerce annouced that it has granted a leave of absence to its president, Doug Whitley, so he can “pursue personal goals, perhaps including a future political career.” The leave takes effect on Jan. 1 and comes after months in which Mr. Whitley was said to be testing the gubernatorial waters.

* Also from Crain’s…

U.S. Housing Secretary Steven Preston, who’s mulling a run for governor of Illinois in 2010, effectively makes his debut speech as a candidate for the GOP nomination Tuesday.

In the wake of Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s arrest and criminal charges last week, Mr. Preston revised a long-scheduled speech on housing issues in Chicago to focus on “leadership, accountability and transparency in government.” […]

“I’ve chatted with a couple of people about the needs of the state,” said Mr. Preston, a native of Janesville, Wis., who got his degree in political science at Northwestern University and considered a career in public service before getting into banking and moving up the corporate ladder. “Anyone who runs has to do a lot of soul-searching.”

*** UPDATE *** Mayor Daley reacts…

Republicans have accused Democrats of opposing a special election because they’re afraid an anti-Blagojevich backlash could pave the way for a GOP candidate to take Barack Obama’s seat in the U.S. Senate.

But, Daley denied the motive is politics.

“You cannot, because an individual does something wrong, change everything dealing with that office. You only have less than two years [until the next election]. It’s about thirty-to-fifty million dollars. That’s a lot of money,” Daley said.

“Whoever becomes the governor — if the lieutenant governor comes in — then, he has the responsibility [to appoint the next senator]. That’s the responsibility of the governor. If [Gov. David] Paterson can do it in New York, why cannot they do it here?”

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:12 pm

Comments

Golden opportunity for GOP, a fumble last week by Dems.

The TV spot the GOP is running right now is pretty good. Hope for the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:15 pm
I think everyone is tied to Blago somehow. Let the Illinois voters pick the senate seat and lets move on.

Comment by Stinky Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:17 pm
Who are the 14% who think the state is going in the right direction?

Comment by HoBoSkillet Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:17 pm
It would be a terrible election. Low turnout and tons of ads with pictures of every candidate standing next to Rod and lists of all the bills they worked on with Rod. Repubs and Dems both.

The best way out of this quickly would be for Rod (or Pat) to ask a half dozen party leaders (R and D both) to pick a qualified Democrat to take the seat with the promise that he would sign off on their choice. He could give them the blank form, already signed.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:20 pm
Who will be responsible for raising the taxes or cutting the expenses to pay for the Republicans to have a chance at winning the Senate seat?

The Democratic governor and Democratic legislature, right?

If the GOP raises the money to pay for the election then let’s have an election.

Dick Durbin should have engaged his brain before throwing out the idea of holding a special election. Does he hate Pat Quinn that much that he’d risk the GOP winning the seat?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:26 pm
I wonder what the crosstabs would look like if the question set up a choice between a special election and a non-Blago Governor appointing the next senator.

Comment by Tyler Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:27 pm
Obviously by my name I am all for electing a Republican to that seat. In 2010 I will work hard to do that. I think it is a mistake to waste the money for a special election. Get RB out of the office and let the new Governor, PQ, appoint someone. It is kind of funny to see some D’s back pedal about the special election.

Comment by GOPJay Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:28 pm
The Illinois GOP’s incredible hypocrisy makes me ill.

GOP Chair Andy McKenna doesn’t even allow his Republican voters to directly elect in INTERNAL elections. He and his puppetmasters have fought direct democracy for years in their own party. (The Illinois Dems do have direct elections for the same thing.)

So what’s not good in Andy’s own house is good for everyone else. What a joke.

And let’s face it, if the shoe was on the other foot, the Republicans would never call for a special election in a million years. They would just rely on the current law.

Comment by Disgusted Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:31 pm
“Only 8% has a favorable opinion of him.”
that’s 48 out of the 600 people polled. I wouldn’t think there were 48 in the whole state. Heck, eight percent of the adult state population would be well over a half million. Who are these people?.

Comment by Been There Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:34 pm
The Republican’s need to think about this a little more carefully. While the state is strongly D, we have a bait of electing Rs for the top spot, and they’ll have a good shot at getting it back in 2 years. Do the really want to lose that appointment power?

I suspect they are just making hay; if it looked like it might pass, they would get a few members to help vote it down.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:42 pm
Just run a commercial showing all the shutered parks and drug programs, then note the republicans want us to spend 50 million dollars on a special election. then go to the various cash strapped counties and have them right a letter to the GOP asking if they will front the bill so they do no have to cut off services to those in need.

In the republicans defesne, they did demand democrats give in and support Blaggos push to put 50 billion in contracts under the Gov’s control. Just once it would be nice to a republican push on somthing other then spending money the State and local counties do not have.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:48 pm
==Does he[Durbin] hate Pat Quinn that much that he’d risk the GOP winning the seat?==

I took Senator Durbin’s proposal to be one that would seek to restore confidence in elected representation AND insulate his own party from having to duke it out for the inevitable, never pretty, migration up the food chain.

This poll data is significant. I wonder if the Democrats commissioned their own poll.

Comment by Gabriel Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:50 pm
I have been active in GOP circles in our state for about 15 years and I didn’t even know Steve Prescot had any connection to the state. I couldn’t pick him out of Bush canbinet line-up.

Didn’t Whitley vote at a Dem a few years ago. No one in the party structure knows who he is. He may know money people but he is not a self funder. He would run weak in a GOP primary!

Comment by Not a fair shake... Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:52 pm
I agree with Disgusted. Chairman McKenna opposes SB 600, which would allow republican primary voters to vote for members of the IL GOP State Central Committee. Since he opposes good democracy, in our party, we shouldn’t care about his opinions.

Comment by Phil Collins Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 1:55 pm
I think Preston would make an interesting candidate, but how would he get past the residency requirements?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:01 pm
Fritchey is on CNN again (2:05 p.m.)

Comment by carbon deforestation Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:05 pm
I don’t think Whitley or Preston can make it through the primary. My guess is Brady, or Mark Kirk. If Kirk heads for the senate seat then I think Brady takes the primary. Brady - v - Kirk in the primary, toss up.

Comment by GOPJay Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:07 pm
I’ve said it before, but it deserves repeating in light of the poll numbers: Illinois does NOT have a problem with filling vacancies in the US Senate. This is a solution in search of a problem.

The problem we have is a governor who doesn’t know when to walk away and do what is best for the people of Illinois. He needs to be removed from office in order to to spare us from any more harm than he’s already caused.

It’s about impeaching and removing the Governor, not about how to fill a Senate vacancy.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:10 pm
Most of the Clinton appointees to high level positions not named Richardson who ran in Red States during Bush’s first term got crushed-Bowles, Reno, ect so it would be interesting to see how a Bushie would do here in Obamaland.

On Mark Kirk-he’s spent his ENTIRE career in d.c., his wife works there, and his pet issues-foreign affairs/defense don’t lend themselves to Springfield. I think he’d be more likely to try for Senate if he thought he could win, but he would be passing up big house seniority with all the GOP retirements and a potential end to his career for a shot at winning a seat on MR. $750 million/12 million email address home turf.

Comment by shore Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:13 pm
Daley is right about the enormous cost of a special election. Its not as though that process will help ensure we get the best person in there in any case. As for Durbin vs. Quinn: I think Quinn is a maverick in the way that pols distrust, i.e., “will he play ball??” Uncertainty breeds contempt.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:17 pm
People are asking why impeachment is going to take so long. Aside from the desire to do it correctly, perhaps there is another reason.

What if perhaps the House Dems feared that Emil would stall or block the trial. Perhaps they want the House portion of impeachment to drag out so that they know Cullerton will be on the receiving end of that message.

Yes, Rich you can give me credit when you repeat this comment later.

CD
It is very possibly factored into the Speaker’s thinking, especially after Emil’s “let’s wait and see” comments on Chicago TV over the weekend.

Comment by carbon deforestation Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:18 pm
==MR. $750 million/12 million email address home turf.==

Mr. 750 million/12 million email address cannot touch this race. Go surfing PEBO. Enjoy the holidays. Worry about the White House.

Comment by Gabriel Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:22 pm
Last month I posted that while the odds are challenging to whoever replaced Obama, due to Rich’s concern over that candidate being tainted by Blagojevich, the seat was still a viable one to get.

However, the entire situation went off the rails last month when Congressman Jackson weirded everyone out by campaigning publically for it. (This may now be possibly explained with the Fed’s tapes.) His public campaign stirred up coverage and gossip took over. The media had a field day and played along.

Two weeks ago, I was posting that any serious Illinois candidate should not join in this circus because it got out of hand. While the senate seat was still a viable opportunity, whoever got it would take a hit due to the circus atmosphere surrounding it.

As of last week, Obama’s seat is now tainted. Whoever ends up with an appointment now is going to get dirty. While there are still a lot of hungry buzzards circling and willing to take the political risk, we shouldn’t be handing it over anymore.

The seat is tainted and the only way to clean it will be through a special election. No blue ribbon panels, not Mother Theresa nominees, at this point, we need to spend the money needed to sanitize it completely through an election.

The polls are not surprising. It merely reinforces Rich’s and my point that whoever now get appointed will share with Blagojevich a little asterisk mentioning how they got there.

Like greedy children willing to eat the cookie dough, just so that they wouldn’t have to share a baked cookie with others, we should demand a public accounting of this situation, unique as it is.

I don’t care who gets it now, but how they get it. I don’t care which party wins it, but how a victor is chosen.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:26 pm
Some tell themselves that the Gov’s problems are just his, and entirelly his own making. They refuse to ask themselves the question: Is my party corrupted at its core? They refuse to acknowledge that the boarded up parks are boarded up because the leaders of their party (the one completely in control) choose to enrich themselves and their cronies at the expense of the state. Why should the people of Illinois trust your leaders to fix this mess?

Comment by pmel Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:29 pm
While an important Illinois politician and deal maker, Mayor Daley is too disconnected from the rest of us to understand how far his system and friends have fallen in public esteem.

Naturally, he doesn’t get it.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:29 pm
The real issue here is that here is an opportunity for those who are leaders to stand up and fix this.
A special election will cost the state and county governments money they can ill afford. To those that say “It’s only $30 million dollars” I say it would take only 2 million to completely restore IDNR’s budget and open all the parks. So there are other places that $30 million would do some good.
I also understand that any Democratic candidate will be tainted by possible affiliations to the Gov. But in reality it is a Democrat seat that should be filled by a Democrat.
But why are each of the leaders talking their party talking points, and positioning themselves to the best interests of their group? What is wrong with all of them, Republican leaders, Democrat leaders, and Lt. Gov Quinn, sitting down and talking TOGETHER ( emphasis added) and coming up with a person they can all agree on to fill the seat so that Illinois will have two Senators and the State and the Nation can get on with the more important business that must be done? All they are doing with their current posturing is lending credence to the Governors actions. They might as well be saying (to paraphrase) ” What give this away? This is too valuable to do that”

Comment by Irish Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:34 pm
where is Alan Keyes when you need him?

Comment by anon Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:46 pm
VanMan, I think Daley very much gets it, and is keeping mostly out of sight and earshot in order to avoid sounding too hypocritical and/or to avoid antagonizing Fitz.

As you indicated - and we’re in agreement here - his buddies and the system in general in which he’s grown accustom have suffered some significant blows. John Harris might be the biggest threat to his empire yet.

Comment by The Doc Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:47 pm
“Regardless of party affiliation, most Illinois voters (88%) have an unfavorable opinion of Rod Blagojevich. Only 8% has a favorable opinion of him.”

So, how many voters of Serbian extraction are there in the state?

Comment by Ken in Aurora Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:50 pm
I totally agree with “Irish”.

Comment by Chanson Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 2:50 pm
A special election would not be held until at least this summer if the bill passed today and the gov signed it tomorrow. There needs to be time for petitions followed by a primary, followed by a general election. More likely the bill would pass in Jan, it would be signed (or the veto overridden in Feb or March), petitioning in April and May (assuming they cut it to less than three months), Primary in June, General in July or August. Plus the cost. How does that serve us well?

Alternative: Quinn & the 4 tops (& maybe Edgar and Durbin) sit down in the next two weeks and pick someone. They have a public announcement and tell Gov. B to do the right thing for once and appoint their choice. The Gov does it because he’s now trying to show what a great guy is is. We have a consensus Sen. before Inauguration Day.

IF we had have real leadership, this will happen. IF not, they will continue to run around in circles sniping at each other while we go without a Senator. Maybe Durbin and Edgar can pull them into this.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 3:05 pm
Pot=forget it! MJM will never go for that period. Edgar? Who the heck is he,other than a has been and a don’t wanna be. Even if there were a special election,the R’s don’t have a candidate that could win especially if MJM gets behind a D. They have been trying to get ahead of Madigans curve but just don’t get up early enough to beat him.

Comment by Eileen Left Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 3:52 pm
The poll question on the senate leads people to believe an election is the only way to stop Blago from appointing. Circumstances have effectively stopped him so no law is needed for that reason.

A more accurate poll question is this: “Now that Gov. Rod can no longer put an appointee in the Senate, what’s the best way to proceed?
a) Wait for Rod’s successor to appoint a senator.
b) Hold a special election at a cost of $35-50 million.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 3:59 pm
I was at Preston’s speech today and he was rather impressive. We are always eager to trash anyone who isn’t a known quantity or who may not be “savvy” like all of us clever CapFax commenters, but fresh faces may be very popular in the next cycle. If he has access to or can raise serious money, he could be very viable. I know the Bush link is a negative but God knows we’ve elected people with much bigger negatives.

Comment by Adam Smith Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 4:24 pm
100% of the state law says the governor -whomever she or he happens to be at the time- makes the appointment.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 4:29 pm
100% of the state law says the governor -whomever she or he happens to be at the time- makes the appointment.

The problem being, of course, that the Sec. of State says he will not certify, and the US Senate says they will not seat, anyone picked by the current Gov. And it looks like he is digging in his heels for the long haul. So we will have 100% of no one as a 2nd senator for the foreseeable future:-)

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 4:53 pm
How about the State of Illinois going after Blagojevich in order to pay a percentage of the cost of holding a special election. The people of Illinois deserve to get something back in this mess.

Comment by Southern Illinois Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 4:55 pm
If we were flush with coin, MAYBE we should do a special election. But I think we could spend $50 million or so, and end up with no better than had we not blown that money that could have done so much more…I seriously doubt this state can be “cleansed” in the next 10-15 years.

Comment by You Go Boy Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 4:58 pm
SI, since there isn’t gonna be a special election, you need to come up with another way of getting somethng “back.”

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 4:58 pm
SI, Rich, You Go…

We’re looking at this the wrong way. Instead of spending $50 million to get a new Senator, why don’t we offer it up on ebay, with the proceeds going to the General Fund? We have a previous candidate who was willing to blow $29 mil of his own $ just for a chance at the seat, and others who might have been willing to pay $1 mil or more outright.

TII

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 5:08 pm
Not having a second Senator for a while is not the end of the world. There have been many occasions in history when various states had only one Senator for many months, and the world didn’t end. One of my own family members was elected by the state legislature from California in 1858 and didn’t bother to show up in Washington. Besides, we now have a President from Illinois. Let’s take the necessary time to do it right. Have an impeachment proceeding that is full and fair and let the Lt. Gov. name the successor, and move on from there. Relax and enjoy the show. It should be good.

Comment by MikeintheSuburbs Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 6:37 pm
Suppose the Gov names someone now, before any removal action can be completed. If that appointment is blocked, wouldn’t that appointment still exist? If so, would the Lt Gov if elevated to Gov be able to name an appointment when one already exists?

Comment by muon Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 6:45 pm
muon-

I had the same thoughts earlier today. Depends on how much of a fighter the 1st appointee is. I’m not sure of the legal precedent here, or if there even is one.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 7:16 pm
When I’m not thoroughly disgusted with our gutless politicians, I enjoy watching the drama. The Dems are stuck between a special election (yikes-what if a Republican gets elected) and Quinn making the appointment (Quinn doesn’t play ball with them). The GOP is still floundering and can’t get it together to take full advantage of this mess. The eyes of the nation/world are upon Illinois yet our self-serving, conniving elected leaders can find no way to conduct themselves except in the “Chicago Way” now being excoriated.

Comment by no plan B Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 8:57 pm
So you want me to resign?? What’s it worth to ya?

Comment by Guv Blogoyabitch Tuesday, Dec 16, 08 @ 11:02 pm
Looks like another lost battle for the Illinois GOP. Too bad they went into battle for a special election with dirty hands. The State GOP doesn’t even allow fair and open elections inside its own organization, for its own leaders. McKenna’s group is far worse than the Democrats’ state party when it comes to direct elections.

Andy McKenna is all about the insider’s club when it comes to his own organization. He doesn’t practice what he preaches.

It amazes me that anyone could be such a hypocrite, and still have the nerve to call others hypocrites.

Comment by Here we go again Wednesday, Dec 17, 08 @ 12:52 am
Here we go-

The only reason this was a “battle” to begin with is that it was an idea put forth by leading Democrats. As an independent, I am dismayed by the posturing and flip-flopping by both sides on this issue. At a time like this, doing the right thing should trump scoring political points. However, both parties did a poor job of concealing their strategizing behind a facade of “doing the right thing.”

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Dec 17, 08 @ 8:29 am
If we just allowed any candidate to run in Feb in a non partisan election and allow the top two run off in April the election would not cost that much. All of this crap about it being to costly or that this is not about Dem’s losing or that the GOP is asking too much remember who’s idea a special election was, Durbin and then Cullerton and Jones jumped on board. What happened? I’ll tell you what happened some one did a poll and found that Dem’s would lose the seat, If there is not a special election Dem will lose the seat in 2010 anyway so Durbin made your bed the rest of the Democrats have to lie in it.

Comment by RAI Wednesday, Dec 17, 08 @ 1:07 pm