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*** UPDATE *** Hinz teases a polling leak…
Check my column in the edition of Crain’s Chicago Business that comes out this weekend for the first poll in the congested 5th District race to succeed Rahm Emanuel in Congress.
I don’t want to blab all the details. Let’s just say that, while a lot of voters are undecided, Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley has a big smile on his face, a smile that will get bigger if Chicago Ald. Pat O’Connor (40th) doesn’t run.
Keep in mind that polling Democratic primaries in Chicago/Cook, especially crowded ones, is particularly tough. The Tribune and I both found this out last year.
[ *** End of Update *** ]
* The Politico looks at the special election in the 5th CD…
Three front-runners have emerged so far from a crowded field of candidates: state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz, Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley and state Rep. John Fritchey.
Quigley hasn’t yet filed his nominating petitions and we don’t even know if he’s raised much money. He has a name, but does he have an organization and the cash to back it up?
More…
In a splintered special election primary where turnout is expected to be very low, those organizational benefits could give Fritchey an advantage.
“More than half of the district is made up of parts of the city that have controlled votes. If you have a ward organization behind you, there are people that will hit the streets for you and will persuade every regular voter,” said one Democratic operative with experience running Chicago campaigns. “If you know there are 250 experienced door knockers working three to four weekends for you, that’s a huge leg up.”
That’s very true. But if Ald. Pat O’Connor stays in the race, that’ll eat into Fritchey’s ward numbers. And Fritchey will need all the votes he can get against Feigenholtz…
EMILY’s List endorsed state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz (D) on Thursday in the crowded field of candidates looking to replace former Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) in the March 3 special election primary.
EMILY’s List means big money and bigtime national exposure during the only federal election in the nation. If Feigenholtz ends up as the only female candidate, the only Jewish candidate and the choice of the district’s significant gay community, she has to be considered in the top tier.
The district is about 20 [Note: A consultant gave me this figure the other day, but I’m gonna check on it] percent Jewish, but Feigenholtz’s people say they expect Jewish voters to show up at the polls in disproportionate numbers. The same goes for the gay vote. She’ll need the organization and money to get that vote out, and EMILY’s List will be a big help.
Quigley will eat into Feigenholtz’s geographical and “reform” base, but only if he can mount a real campaign.
* Then there’s the lefties professors…
In addition to the established officeholders, two academics with no political experience are running — labor activist and author Tom Geoghegan and University of Chicago economics lecturer Charlie Wheelan.
Geoghegan is the more notable of the two, having won strong support from leaders in the liberal Netroots community. [link added]
Wheelan has filed his nominating petitions. Geoghegan has not. Petition drives are not easy, and that’s by design, but it’s not as horrible as this makes it sound…
As near as I can tell, having studied this stuff for years, our system is designed to be as confusing as possible in order to ensure that anyone who runs, much less wins, is either backed by the Democratic machine or loaded with cash. There are a host of rules and regulations that govern the signature-gathering process: voters have to sign, not print, their names; their signatures must reasonably resemble the ones on their voter registration cards; they have to live where they say they live; husbands and wives can’t sign for each other; and so on.
Oh, my goodness. Voters have to actually live where they say they live? They have to sign their own signatures and not forge someone else’s? Heaven forbid!
The reason so many candidates have so much trouble with petitions isn’t really because of the rules. It’s because they have no idea how to run a campaign.
Geoghegan, by the way, has launched an online petition drive “telling Congress to… ensure that the bailout money is directed towards those who really need it.”
He might want to finish collecting his nominating petitions first.
* Almost all candidates will try to tie themselves as closely as they can to Barack Obama, so this relative dark horse (relative used both ways, since he’s the son of a former alderman) can toot his horn loudly…
“People are very frustrated about the current state of the government in Illinois,” said candidate Justin Oberman, an Assistant Transportation Security Administration (TSA) Administrator following the 9-11 attacks and later part of then-candidate Obama’s advisory committee on homeland security. “Voter turnout will be high and they will put a premium on ethics and integrity.”
The problem with that experience, of course, is anyone who has ever been through airport security is probably no big fan of the TSA. His online ad is also mostly about his father, whom many voters simply won’t remember. And it’s kinda weird to see a “reformer” campaigning so heavily on the nepotism angle.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 9:56 am
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Kind of sad how the Oberman ad scans across a collection of Marty Oberman for AG buttons — a race he lost. In that and the Obama literature shots, they are marshaling SWAG to stand in for experience.
Comment by Zora Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:04 am
That is very interesting. I wonder who will win, the guy with the organization, or the gal with the money and the exposure.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:10 am
I got a robocall from Quigley on Sunday telling me that he would be meeting voters at the Jefferson Park station Monday morning. Usually a robocall loses my vote.
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:11 am
This should be a good, old-fashioned bare-knuckled brawl.
The district is a lot more diverse than it might appear at a glance. Take a drive through its heart on Belmont from the lake to Melrose Park and you’ll know what I mean.
The Kaszak/Emanuel tilt was a pretty good dustup, and given that the winner of this one probably has a safe seat for life, this one should be, too.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:12 am
Two comments on the petition drives. First, over the years there have been so many aldermanic and legislative campaigns in the city wards that you would think every candidate knows someone who is experienced in petition drives. Also, candidates traditionally like to be first or last on the ballot. I would expect a bunch of candidate filings on the last day.
Comment by Oakparker Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:19 am
I found out the best way of getting signatures. I took my son to a sledding hill on Saturday. He had fun while I visited tons of parents at the top of the hill and I had 40 good sigs for Mr. Fritchey in 25 minutes.
This district needs a moderate. I don’t know Feigenholtz, but she sounds way to liberal for Rosty and Emmanuals seat. If she wins the primary it could even swing to a Repub-believe it or not-na probably not.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:19 am
Rich - the Politico article mentions that Schulter possibly threw his support behind Fritchey to put himself in a position to succeed Fritchey in the legislature. Why in the heck would he want to do that?
Comment by Curious... Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:21 am
Doesn’t Oberman take votes away from Sara? And, the Reader article speaks favorable of Marty O - doesn’t mention his ties to the Lipinski clan. Not a very liberal endorsement.
Comment by babs Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:41 am
Curious…, because the article is wrong (surprise, surprise). I’m pretty sure the agreement was that he would get a significant say over who would succeed Fritchey.
Also, Rich, I wouldn’t really call Wheelan a lefty. Sure he’s an academic, but he’s a U of C economist. He’s no Friedman, but I would say he’s to the right of Sara and Quigley, and possibly even Fritchey.
Comment by Juice Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:42 am
Juice, you’re right. Post fixed.
babs, the Lipper angle is somewhat interesting and will be explored later here. Not sure if anyone else will.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:49 am
The problem with petitions are because candidates don’t know how to run campaigns? I’m sure that explains part of the problem but petition trouble (challenges, for example) happen independent of the competence of the campaign staff or the quality of signatures.
Comment by Suzanne Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:55 am
If Sara can nail down the liberal vote in the district, it will offset the more moderates out in Melrose Park, etc. This is gonna be a great race to watch!
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:56 am
===petition trouble (challenges, for example) happen independent of the competence of the campaign staff or the quality of signatures===
Name the last person with a quality, experienced staff who was tossed off the ballot because of signature troubles. I’m sure there have been, but the people who are most likely to be tossed are complete amateurs or goofballs who wouldn’t have run much of a campaign anyway.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 10:57 am
Could Republican Committeman Ed Burke be this years Mike Flanagan?
Comment by anon Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:04 am
No.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:05 am
=======but only if he can mount a real campaign. ====
Hey Rich, I don’t run fake campaigns. It’ll be real, trust me.
BOWEN
Comment by Tom B. Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:16 am
For the record: I don’t doubt Bowen’s abilities. I doubt his candidate’s abilities.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:20 am
I don’t think that sara will have as hard a time with moderates as some might think. Voters today want americans to have health care, far more support access to birth control and access to choice, far more support gay rights (maybe not gay marriage, but certainly the right to be treated equally), and funding for public education. She can run on that record outside of the lakefront. She just needs a strong field organization to help spread that record coupled with money for mail and tv. It looks like she has both.
Comment by Ditto Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:22 am
Ok. Kathy Cummings. First time candidate. Green party. Maybe not the cracker-jack staff you’d like to see for a first time candidate, but not bad.
http://www.chicagoreader.com/features/stories/theworks/060915/
But whoever you and I might name is less important, I think, than the fact that ballot challenges have become more about which candidate can afford the toughest lawyer and less about the number or quality of signatures. It’s become the defacto primary where no one other than the candidate gets to vote.
Comment by Suzanne Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:23 am
What does Skippy and the suburban repubs do with this one? Do they have their voters flip over to the dem ticket and vote for Fritchey? I know some of the connections up those woods but I’m not sure how they will play out.
Comment by Been There Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:24 am
Oh, this should go without saying but just to be clear, there are legitimate reasons to challenge a candidates petitions. If the signatures are obviously the product of round-tabling, you challenge. If there are an insufficient number of signatures, you challenge. If every signature sheet reads, “I love Rich Miller,” you challenge.
Comment by Suzanne Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:26 am
Sara is the bestlegislator running, the best campaigner, and probably the best organized .Quigley is doomed to be an also ran in this race.
When all is said and done, it appears to be a battle between Fritchey and Feigenholtz. Multi- canididate races are always hard to figure out.
Comment by Captain America Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:27 am
===If every signature sheet reads, “I love Rich Miller,” you challenge. ===
And call the funny farm.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:27 am
Fritchey needs to counter Fiegenholtz on publicity. Right now he doesn’t need to do that yet. It is a ground game while signatures are being collected. Once Fritchey gets the organization behind him, he has the edge on demographics in the district if he can bring out the middle and working class voters out.
Feigenholtz will be a boutique candidate, sheer image and media. Fritchey will have to spend money to tout his ethical stands over the past year and his Blagojevich battles. That should counter whatever liberal nonsense would be pushing the lakefronters towards Feigenholtz which is still palatable after November.
It looks close now, but Fritchey should win.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:29 am
If I could do it with the scientist, I can do it with the commish.
Comment by Tom B. Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:32 am
And, Suzanne, that story is a whole lot of nonsense. Not the facts, the analysis.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:32 am
Does the Illinois State Board of Elections have that number on speed dial?
Comment by Suzanne Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:33 am
Bowen, your scientist was a millionaire. Your commish has yet to show he can move up.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:33 am
Didn’t you ask for facts?
Comment by Suzanne Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:48 am
Bowen might be good at communications, but when it came to the Foster primary after spending millions of dollars he only won by a few hundred votes… there was a bad taste left in a lot of folks mouths after that.
Comment by BoB Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:50 am
Get back to work, Bowen!
Comment by JonShibleyFan Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:55 am
BoB, The only taste that mattered in the Foster race was the taste of victory. Not exactly favorable turf for a Dem out there, either.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 11:56 am
Oh, don’t get me wrong, I was happy that Bill won; Bill is a great guy. He won the Special Election and his re-election this Nov. but used others to run his opperation, to his great credit, not Tom. It is not favorable turf out here, but Bill got his act together and won and I hope he does it again.
Comment by BoB Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 12:07 pm
Ditto - have you looked at the district? More churches than bars. Once you’re west of Pulaski it’s a whole different world. Sure there are a few houses here and there that support gay rights and choice but that is not something you will find in the majority of the district. It will not be as easy for Sara as you expect. There is also a fair amount of machine voting - not one committeeman pushed Stroger over Claypool but he still won many of those wards. It won’t be as easy for Sara, Justin or Quigley as you think in the western sections of the district - especially in the suburbs.
Comment by babs Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 12:11 pm
Bowen is the only thing Quigley has going for him in this race. Maybe Oberman should have hired him to break 10%. That’s about what Quigley will get.
Comment by BC Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 12:17 pm
How does Feingenholtz get to the 20% Jewish number? The lakefront high rises and Rogers Park were always carved out for the benefit of Sid Yates - and Jan Schakowsky has kept it that way. All these national figures are yapping about the progressives. They will split the vote. Remember in 2002, Emmanuel got 50% of the primary vote and Nancy Kaszak got 35%. That was with a huge push by Daley for Emmanuel (provided by the now imprisoned Tomczak). In this big field, there is only one ethnic candidate. My prediction - Victor Forys wins with 27% of the vote.
Comment by Martin Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 12:22 pm
BC - 10% could win the election!
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 12:23 pm
Sara and Fritchey will break 30% in a dogfight for who can get closest to 40 for the win.
Comment by BC Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 12:34 pm
Lakeview/Wrigleyville does have a nice size Jewish population, but 20% seems high. I would think it closer to the 10% - 12% range. Oberman is also Jewish, isn’t he? So there could be a split in that vote, though Feigenholtz is certainly the more visible of the two. I agree that this will come down to Fritchey and Feigenholtz.
Comment by Niles Township Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 12:39 pm
Anybody wonder if the presence of former GRod SpinSister Becky Carrol will slow down the Sara Show or did the rehab assignment with Obama clean things up?
Comment by Five Alive Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 12:42 pm
babs, I grew up in the district and it’s not anything like it used to be. It’s far more progressive - even more than it was in 02. And believe me, there are far more bars than churches, although there’s not a bar on every corner like there used to be.
The machine is alive, but has weakened and they’re desperate to get their guy fritchey in so they can hold on to a piece of the pie. Thanks to Obama, voters are far more engaged than they ever were before and I think they’ll be looking very closely at the candidates rather than listening to their precinct captains.
Comment by Ditto Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 1:13 pm
It will be won on election day. They all are going to claim about 30+%, and they all will say that will be enough … The Emily’s List deal would scare me if I am Quigley or Fritchey, and is the ONLY arrow in a quiver that Sara might need.
I remember a congressional race, all “dudes” and one woman, and with the help of Emily’s List, and a decent ballot name to carry her through the primary …Congresscritter Biggert was born.
Watch out fellas …
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 1:14 pm
===I think they’ll be looking very closely at the candidates rather than listening to their precinct captains. ===
I believed that would happen when Obama was on the primary ballot last year. It didn’t.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 1:15 pm
Patrick O’Connor looks to be the odd man out in this race. His prospects seemed bright until Rahm Emanuel had to fly below the radar screen and leave the country (to pay off Obama’s Kenyan relatives?) suddenly. I think that he is destined to continue sitting in the City Council.
Comment by Honest Abe Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 1:28 pm
It is definitely a precinct captains election, however, Fritchey needs to be concerned with a huge negative media blitz. Done correctly it could defeat him, but it would be unfair innuendo and not exactly the high road. So I’m sure it’s coming.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 1:37 pm
PJW - that’s hilarious. A negative media blitz against fritchey? Yeah, because he’s the only man in the race and all the women want his numbers to take a hit…oh wait, sorry, Sara is the only viable woman candidate in this race and surely none of the boys will try to spread unfair innuendo about her.
No one needs to create a negative media blitz against fritchey — not when you’re the machine candidate and are being backed by the same ward bosses that gave us grod. And it’s already started.
Comment by Ditto Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 1:43 pm
With about 270,000 Jewish people living in Illinois, (according to the “Jewish Census” of the American Jewish Committee, and at least two other districts containing areas where lots of Jewish people live (9th & 10th), I really doubt that anywhere near 20% of the 5th is Jewish. That would have to be half the state’s Jews in this district.
I’d guess the real number is close to 10%, but not quite that high. A sizable constituency, but not nearly the controlling bloc that 20% of the vote would be.
Comment by earnest Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 2:10 pm
The only candidates that matter are the ones who will actually have the guts to actually file and stay in the race until the end. Quigley will do what he usually does: announce he running for a higher office, whine to the media that he is relevant, get ignored by everyone because he is annoying and not relevant, fail to raise any money and crawl back in his hole until the next “opportunity.” If he actually runs this time he gets beat by everyone but that professor, setting up another defeat for his board seat. He will never see it through. In the end, it will be Sara and four or five guys, two with recognizable names like O’Connor and Fritchey. Sara wins with 38%.
Comment by Tunafish Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 2:10 pm
Can anybody here show how Sara’s voting record is any more progressive than Fritchey’s? He carried Planned Parenthood’s bills, supported civil unions, and on and on. I think Sara’s folks are working real hard to paint a picture that doesn’t exist.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 2:13 pm
>My prediction - Victor Forys wins with 27% of the vote.
Ah, but you’re forgetting Phil Tadros, the owner of Dollop Cafe. He had his petitions on the counter when I got coffee yesterday. The barista didn’t seem to recognize that the shop itself isn’t in the district, so I’m sure most of the sigs won’t be valid. Maybe he’s just a spoiler that Geoghegan is running to keep Forys’s totals down!
Comment by earnest Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 2:16 pm
Fritchey is not exactly the poster child of a machine candidate-he has plenty of goo goo creds as well as street dreds. It will be fun. It will also be low-low turnout. One woman on the ballot will certaily help Sara F, but her last name isn’t easy either.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 2:23 pm
Oh, so a jew can’t win the 5th CD? Hmm, I seem to recall that a guy named rahm emanuel who had to take a lot of hits for being jewish and he beat the polish, catholic candidate hands down.
As for fritchey, he has plenty of zoning deal skeletons in his closet that are connected to his family that have been widely reported. I’m sure that the media and his opponents will resurrect those.
And no one can compare sara’s progressive cred with fritchey’s — she’s in a totally different league.
Comment by Ditto Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 2:50 pm
Actually, I am not referring to her name being Jewish-to me it doesn’t even sound Jewish-just not a roll off your tongue name to voters unfamiliar with her as opposed to a Kennedy name ect. She is going to have to spend lots of money just introducing herself, which will take away from her funds to go negative. Ira Silverstein certainly seems to do well in the area but he is a moderate.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 3:01 pm
I’m curious to see what their (the Crain’s poll) likely voter screen is.
Comment by Scooby Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 3:18 pm
PJW, will sara have to spend some money to get her name out? No doubt, but she’s been a state rep for 14-15 years and she is hardly a unknown. And sorry that I misinterpreted what you meant, but it wasn’t totally clear.
Comment by Ditto Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 3:22 pm
By the way, Sara is not the only woman in the race. Jan - former commerical pilot and union member - Donatelli (sp?) hasn’t filed yet but she will. Doesn’t have the name recognition but she is a woman.
Comment by babs Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 4:29 pm
Ditto - no one said a Jew could not win in CD5. I just questioned Feingenholtz saying the 20% of the population was Jewish. I doubt that 20% of the electorate is Jewish. Jewish neighborhoods on the north side were usually combined with the northern suburbs to give Sid Yates a safe district (now Jan Schakowsky’s). Look at the boundaries - 9CD grabs a narrow strip along the lake (about to Belmont I think) to grab the lakefront highrises with large elderly Jewish populations. Gerrymandering at its finest. What I would like to see is a law (or constitutional amendment) requiring all districts be drawn as compact as possible. With computers, this would be easy.
Comment by Martin Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 4:34 pm
babs. Don’t forget about pulido and gordils in the other parties. They are women too. We should however re-word it as Sara is the only viable and electable female candidate.
Comment by Illinois.Pundit Friday, Jan 16, 09 @ 5:23 pm
If everybody who thinks they are in the know says that Fritchey was the key to electing Waguespack in the 32nd ward, why are Waguespack and his band of dreamers bashing Fritchey every opportunity they get. They even ahd an anybody but Fritchey Party Saturday night. Just like the SEIU was used and thrown away by Waguespack, it looks like he is doing that to Fritchey.
Comment by littleguy Sunday, Jan 18, 09 @ 12:00 pm