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5th CD roundup * UPDATED x1 *

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Illinois
Burris

* John Fritchey’s new TV spot is certainly one of the more entertaining ads of the season…

…Adding… Notice how Fritchey appears to be blaming Mike Quigley for the hit on Feigenholtz that she asked George Ryan and Rod Blagojevich for jobs. That was a Fritchey slam.

…Adding More… As ~~two~~ three people from ~~two~~ three different campaigns have now pointed out to me via e-mail, Fritchey’s ad looks an awful lot like an ad his media guy did for another campaign. Watch the other ad here. No big deal, but figured I’d pass it along since my pals were so insistent.

*** UPDATE 1 *** Feigenholtz responds via an e-mail to supporters…

I have some sad but predictable news.

Some of my so-called reform-minded opponents have turned to old-school political tricks in this election. Rather than discuss the biggest challenges our nation faces in a generation - a stalled economy and a crumbling health care system - my opponents are content to resort to Karl Rove-style mud slinging.

I need your help to fight back against my opponents’ negative attacks. Please contribute $150 today to allow me to fight back.

Heh.

[ *** End of Update *** ]

Unlike most other candidates, Fritchey and Feigenholtz are the only ones with any real points behind their TV ads. Charlie Wheelan has some eye-catching ads, but he has done a poor job of even attracting Intertube interest in them. Mike Quigley is concentrating on direct mail.

* Fritchey, by the way, is starting to take some heat for objecting to the second question of this excerpt during the House impeachment committee hearing…

REPRESENTATIVE DURKIN: Okay. At any time were you directly or indirectly aware of a quid pro quo with the Governor for the appointment of this vacant Senate seat?

MR. BURRIS: No, sir.

REPRESENTATIVE DURKIN: Okay. If you were
aware of a quit pro quo, what would you have done?

The question was a bit silly, but I’m betting that Fritchey would probably like to take back his comments now…

REPRESENTATIVE FRITCHEY: Madam Chairman, if I may, Mr. Burris had already stated that he was not aware of any quid pro quo, which answers that question and puts it to rest. What his response would have been had there been something, which he stated did not occur, is clearly irrelevant to this, and according to Mr. Burris, to speculate on something that would have happened if another situation had happened which he clearly says has not.

That may explain this press release which just landed in my in-box…

State Representative John Fritchey (D-Chicago), a candidate in the upcoming Special Primary Election for Illinois’ 5th Congressional district vacancy, announced that, if elected, he will work toward the passage of a constitutional amendment requiring special elections in the case of any vacancies in a United States Senate seat. Rep. Fritchey’s statement comes as controversy continues to swirl around the recent appointment of Sen. Roland Burris by impeached former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich.

…Adding… The Trib’s site now has a story about this Burris/Fritchey thing, but there ain’t much new stuff in it.

* And on the money front…

The FEC requires candidates to report contributions of more than $1,000 within 48 hours in the final weeks leading up to an election. According to those reports, Feigenholtz raked in the most, $43,550, of the candidates in the race.

That’s far ahead of everyone else and brings her total raised to about $600,000. Not bad at all.

* Speaking of money, this is probably no big deal if Feigenholtz is telling the truth…

Controversial lobbyist Al Ronan has surfaced in the heated 5th Congressional District race, making a $500 campaign contribution to Democratic candidate Sara Feigenholtz in December.

“Al Ronan is an old friend of mine. He’s not really involved in the campaign, he just made a contribution because he’s someone I called,” Ms. Feigenholtz said.

Asked whether he’s providing her with advice as well, Ms. Feigenholtz said, “If you know anything about Al Ronan, all he has is advice. I’ve known Al for 30 years.”

Ms. Feigenholtz’s aides insist Mr. Ronan has no formal role in the campaign.

* Keep in mind that voters probably won’t just wander into the polls and cast their ballots for whatever name looks good. This is a special election, so they’ll have to be motivated to vote. The stories listed below in the “Related” section about “too many candidates” don’t really matter because there will likely be few barely interested voters at the polls.

* Related…

* O’Connor: I’m guy behind Northside Prep

* Early voting begins in 5th Congressional District primary

* Early Voting For Rahm Emanuel’s House Seat Begins

* Voters Clueless in Fifth District

* In Cicero, few candidates; in 5th, too many

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 11:43 am

Comments

Fritchey cannot afford any distractions - so while his comment is minor, it comes at a major time in this campaign.

No one saw Roland Burris’ situation last week, and no one can forsee what future news events will intrude on voter’s minds before Election Day. The election is close enough that anything can tip it.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 11:52 am
I guess the worst think about Fritchey defending Burris from the Repubs is that it is all on tape and easily produced into a TV commercial. The fact that noone is paying attention to this race may save him, however.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 11:54 am
Fritchey should point out that if Durkin had stuck to questions about what Burris did (instead of asking Burris to speculate about what he might have done), he might have discovered something more important…

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 11:59 am
Rich, you nail it:
==”Keep in mind that voters probably won’t just wander into the polls and cast their ballots for whatever name looks good. This is a special election, so they’ll have to be motivated to vote.”==

Endorsements, $$, mail, TV, name ID, and signs are all fine and dandy. But with nothin else on the ballot, the winning campaign might not be the one with the most in all of those categories, but the one with a stellar voter contact and GOTV operation to boot.

Comment by Very special Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 11:59 am
Rich, thanks for putting up the info on the weekend. it was fascinating watching the Tribune editorial board meeting. one of my 5th cd pals is wondering why she gets mail from Sara and her husband does not. she seems inclined to vote for sara but her husband finds this mail difference offputting. i’m simply finding this race fascinating. and revealing.

Comment by Amy Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:07 pm
Fritchey’s ad is pretty funny.

Comment by David Ormsby Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:11 pm
Rich– Can you post some of the direct mail pieces? EFC

Comment by UofCalum Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:12 pm
It is nice how Fritchey goes negative and attacks Quigley and Feigenholtz while trying to make it look as though he is actually the one above the fray… Does he think this ad will really not come across as attacking both Sara and Mike?
Also, good catch on the clout list Rich, funny how Fritchey says that is not throwing mud but now is trying to make it look as though Quigley made that accusation…

Seems like someone is trying to change the subject as his role in the Burris hearings comes into question…

Comment by Windy Cityzen Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:19 pm
@UofCalum - Progess Illinois has some mailers up:
http://progressillinois.com/2009/2/16/il-5-mailers

Also, for anyone interested, Jesse Greenberg has a good piece up on the Burris/Fritchey stuff here: http://publicaffairs2point0.wordpress.com/2009/02/17/the-certain-chicago-democrat/

Comment by Windy Cityzen Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:22 pm
ConservativeVeteran=Phil Collins?

Comment by Ben S. Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:24 pm
Not a bad ad.

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:28 pm
Fritchey’s involvement in shutting down questions of Burris is certainly concerning to me. It was important to get full, truthful and honest answers - before he took office. Now, we’re watching the Burris trainwreck continue as a result.

Comment by FlackerBacker Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:29 pm
Fritchey is opening up with an attack ad means he knows he is behind and he doesn’t have the money to go two-track. A definate sign of desperation. Latest tracking poll has Quigley and Sarah tied in the low 20’s, O’Connor at 12% and Fritchey stuck in single digits at 8%. It looks like a two person race from here on out. Sorry John.BTW, look at the 48 hour filings. Sarah is killing them on money raised by like a 7 to 1 ration. Anyone want to make a prediction?

Comment by jerry morrison seiu Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:38 pm
that would be “ratio”. I guess this means it is ok to go negative now. This should be fun.

Comment by jerry morrison seiu Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:41 pm
Fritchey should have stayed away from Burris. If you don’t know the play, you keep quiet.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:45 pm
Last reports had Fritchey outraising Sara 2-1 since he got in the race with her 300k lead all but gone. This ad, which won’t be seen as negative by the public, all but makes the case that he will in fact go 2 track.

And with jerry’s boss named in Rod’s crimimal complaint, i can’t imagine why SEIU would want to go negative in any campaign.

Comment by not so fast jerry Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:46 pm
Not so fast jerry -

No one has filed their latest FEC reports, so I’m not sure where the “last reports” comes from. We’ll know tomorrow how much each candidate has raised, so no point speculating.

We have heard rumors, but none of those rumors get to what’s going to be the dominant issue:

- Now that Fritchey & Feigenholtz are both on the air, where’s that money coming from?

- Now that Quigley still ISN’T on the air, how much money has he actually raised, and why is he still in this race?

I will say that I was surprised that Fritchey came out of the box with an attack ad. When you’re only at 8%, appearing in your own attack ad is counter-intuitive. That said, it is a funny ad, so the downside is likely minimal.

I will agree that it seems like Fritchey’s only planning one ad, which makes me wonder how much of his purported fundraising is real and how much of it is smoke-and-mirrors. If in fact he was able to raise $400K in REAL dollars, you’d think he was on pace for $1M.

It could be that part of his warchest is really loans. We’ll know tomorrow!

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:57 pm
Boy, there is a lot going on there but you don’t refute the 48 hour filings which are disasterous for John. And even with the “juiced” numbers from John’s filing he is still behind $150,000 to $200,000 to Sarah. Why open up with a negative spot which is identical to a congressional spot Adelstien ran in New York this year? Negative before anyone knows your candidate? A very bad idea. Not to mention recycling an ad from last cycle. Running out of ideas over there Eric. This doesn’t bode well for Alexi’s senate race. Where will those ads come from? Maybe Alexi should hire a higher profile firm up to the job.

As everyone knows my boss isc a witness in the Blagojevich case.

Comment by jerry morrison seiu Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 12:57 pm
Jerry and YDD - to what tracking poll are you referring?

Comment by Very special Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:02 pm
very special - I wasn’t referring to a tracking poll.

I was refering to this poll from mid-January:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/17/replacing-emanuel-quigley_n_158798.html

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:28 pm
YDD - with all due respect - numbers from a month ago (mostly based on name ID before the campaigns got going in earnest) with nearly 60% undecided or within the margin of error? Come on.

Comment by Very special Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:33 pm
One on the campaigns did a tracking poll in the last few days. That is the tracking I am referring to.

Comment by jerry morrison seiu Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:36 pm
Word from a good source is that not one dollar of Fritchey’s cash came from loans - pretty damn impressive. As YDD said, we’ll know soon enough.

Comment by in da 5th Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:42 pm
Jerry-why so much angst for John if he’s at 8%? I’d be a lot more worried about Mike if I were you. Makes you seem pretty silly, just saying.

Comment by 44th Ward Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:42 pm
I don’t understand why the candidates spend so much time fundraising when clearly the comments at Capitol Fax are going to decide this race.

Comment by Scooby Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:44 pm
Very special -

With all due respect, Fritchey just went up on t.v., and reportedly had ZERO dollars to spend as of January 1.

Just how much do YOU think his numbers moved, with a dozen candidates in the race, no money to spend for most of January, and most people focused on their own economic worries, not the 5th CD race?

Jerry Morrison says he saw a tracker that had Fritchey still at 8%. I’ve known Jerry to say and do alot of things ~ most of them crazy ~ but I’ve never known him to lie.

Now, if you wanna call him a liar, go right ahead. But Feigenholtz is the only one who had any real money to spend in January, so I’m guessing he’s right about hers being the only numbers that moved significantly.

Remember, most voters DON’T read the newspaper every day, let alone CapFax.

Case in point: Quigley got a nice endorsement from the Sun-Times today, but it won’t mean SQUAT if Quigley doesn’t have the money to put that endorsement on t.v.

The same editorial called Feigenholtz “a passionate expert in health care.” You can BET voters will see that in a Feigenholtz ad.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:45 pm
in da 5th ~ If none of Fritchey’s money comes from loans, that is impressive. If he can keep up that pace, he’ll be in the hunt on election day.

Where’s the over-under on Quigley? Any bets on whether he’ll report more or less than $300K raised?

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:51 pm
I think the ad’s pretty funny. Eye-catching certainly.

Comment by 5th CD Voter Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 1:59 pm
Keep in mind folks that this is a special election with very low turnout…TV is not the end all be all — especially when even the largest buys are very light. So candidates that are doing a lot of mail which can pinpint the actual voters like Quigley, Bryar, maybe Geoghan and maybe others could be in the game if their message is sticking…even if they are outspent on TV by a lot…

Quigley has done a lot of mail, so he has plenty of money.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 2:13 pm
YDD - That’s a whole lotta CAPS, wordcount, and emotion.

And re: Jerry - take it easy. No one was calling him a liar. I was simply asking what tracking poll he was referring to, since your numbers were a month old. He has since clarified, so not sure why you’re getting so worked up.

Comment by Very special Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 2:15 pm
I agree that the ad won’t be perceived as negative. It’s entertaining, and the kids do a good job. I also think it’s interetsing that Fritchey has close to, if not exactly, a 100% voting record with SEIU, and has managed to arouse this much venom from Jerry in a matter of weeks.

Comment by Dog the Bounty Hunter Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 2:31 pm
I’ll call Jerry a liar because he is one. That’s the problem with SEIU fat cats. After awhile they begin to resemble the bureaucrats they try to negotiate with. SEIU makes their own employees rich while their rank and file starve.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 3:13 pm
Hey Bill, at least I don’t hide behind a “blogging name”. When I have something to say I use my real name. I always stand behind what I say. If I am lying then I can be called out on it. If you are lying no one knows who the hell you are. So, from your lofty, anonimous perch what am I lying about my dear brave friend?

Comment by Jerry morrison Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:12 pm
BTW, Fritchey’s ad is a retread. It is identical to an ad Eric Adelstein produced for a congressional candidate in New York state in 08. It will be allover the local news shortly running side by side you so can see just how identical they are. Canned attack ads. How refreshing.

Comment by Jerry morrison Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:16 pm
===BTW, Fritchey’s ad is a retread===

Yes, we know. I posted about it.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:20 pm
Hey Rich, how about being a little more evenhanded in your coverage. Could you be anymore pro-Fritchey? Did John always pick-up the tab in Springfield or what? Just having some fun before the EFCA Rally.

Comment by Jerry morrison Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:23 pm
Using a retread ad is an issue? Can we get anymore inside baseball than that?

Besides, if you have an ad that good, why wouldn’t you keep using it?

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:25 pm
Jerry Morrison once again shows why he’s the most beloved figure in organized labor.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:27 pm
47th Ward, you have got to be kidding me. Of course it is inside baseball. What do you think this blog is about? And yes, John is likely to take a hit on it in the media because local political reporters like this kind of story. They love process. Hate policy.

Comment by Jerry morrison Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:28 pm
Also, for what it’s worth, the CFL just complained that I was being too pro SEIU. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:28 pm
Funny complaint from the CFL since we are the largest dues paying member of their organization.

Comment by Jerry morrison Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:29 pm
My job is not to be beloved. My job is to win and I do that more often than not.

Comment by Jerry morrison Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:32 pm
==”My job is to win and I do that more often than not.”==

Jerry - much like your candidate’s name throughout his thread, you misspelled “whine” above. Easy mistake.

lol.

Comment by Couldn't resist... Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:38 pm
Very funny stuff “couldn’t resist”. I am a lot of things but whiner I am not. Loud mouth, agitator, pain in the ass among other things but not a whiner. I always take it like a man.

Comment by Jerry morrison Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:44 pm
Didn’t that ad win her a primary upset in that race with little money behind it????

As we know history seems to repeat itself

Comment by Retread Ad Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 4:58 pm
The only time I watch TV is when AI is on so political commercials don’t mean anything to me. Fritchey is my state legislator and so far I rec’d 1 piece of paper from him w/ his accomplishments which numbered 3. I’d like to see more. Having Al Ronan as a friend, IMHO, is a huge turn-off. When he was a legislator, his solution to a budget shortfall was to take it out of state employee’s paychecks. Big thinker.

Comment by Marianne North Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 6:56 pm
Ahhhh…I don’t know about the ad.

First peek, cute.

Second, stressful to watch the kids arguing, admired their acting talent, and wished they’d grow up more quickly so that they could run instead.

Third peek, visualized a third kid in there named “Fritchey” arguing with the best of them and decided to stay home instead of voting.

If that’s the objective because he’s got a strong lead with those who will come out, it works, I guess.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 7:44 pm
==I always take it like a man.==

Jerry, I have no horse in this race, but I’ve been reading your posts for weeks now, so a little free advice: To communicate effectively, you really ought to put more thought into your spelling, grammar, and, um, choice of words.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 8:19 pm
The Fritchey is cute and memorable, but I think it wouldve worked better if Mike and Sara’s “childishness” had been on the air prior to this. It has been obscurely covered by the mainstream media, so I’m not sure your average tv viewers will connect the dots. Guess it still attaches those accusations to the other candidates though.

Comment by fwiw Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 8:43 pm
What I want to know is, how does anyone running a tracking poll estimate or accurately model who’s likely to vote on Mar. 3rd? Talk about a polling nightmare. I mean, what’s the secret sauce?

And if you did know it, of course you’d be a fool to post it in a public forum. But the intense uncertainty surrounding who is liable to turn out for this atypical race makes me very leery of traditional polling.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 10:31 pm
No big deal on copycat ads? I suppose not. David Axelrod’s clients do it all of the time. Compare speeches and slogans from Barack Obama, John Edwards and Deval Patrick. The only constant for Axelrod’s people is harping about undefined “change.”

Comment by Honest Abe Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 11:17 pm
The telephones are ringing off of the hooks in the 5th District as the robo-calls begin.

Alderman Patrick O’Connor has finally gotten into the game, but will it be a case of too little, too late. He is a bright guy, but he could have used some better endorsements than the few that he is snagged so far. Terry O’Brien of the MWRD is fine, but State Senator Ira Silverstein and Alderman Bernard Stone represent only one or two precincts in the district as the overwhelming majority of the 50th Ward is in the 9th. Does having State Representative John “Hired Trucks” D’Amico on board help? His parents went to prison briefly for ghost payrolling. His aunt, Alderman Marge Laurino succeeded her father in the 39th and Tony Laurino beat a prison rap on account of old age. He was too sick to stand trial and then died. It is rumored that Marge does not even reside in her own ward on a full-time basis, but keeps a house in the suburbs too. O’Connor is a good guy, but I wonder if he can make it count on March 3rd. Apart from his aldermanic races he has not fared too well in other election bids.

Comment by Honest Abe Tuesday, Feb 17, 09 @ 11:36 pm
“how does anyone running a tracking poll estimate or accurately model who’s likely to vote on Mar. 3rd?”

Are you registered to vote?
Are you aware that there is a special election to fill the vacancy of former Congressman Rahm Emanuel, who resigned to work for President Obama?
Do you plan to vote in the March 3 special primary election to replace COngressman Emanuel?

Comment by JonShibleyFan Wednesday, Feb 18, 09 @ 8:43 am
“David Axelrod’s clients do it all of the time.”

If you’re going to level a broadside, you’re going to need to cite…oh, maybe once that Axelrod’s clients ran identical ads to other Axelrod clients.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Wednesday, Feb 18, 09 @ 8:45 am
“David Axelrod’s clients do it all of the time.”

If you’re going to level a broadside, you’re going to need to cite perhaps one specific incident in which an Axelrod clients ran identical ads to another Axelrod client.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Wednesday, Feb 18, 09 @ 8:46 am
JohnShibleyFan,

Sounds good, but the proof will be on Election Day. You know whether screening questions work when you see what the turnout actually was, and you compare your surveys.

I don’t think there have been many case examples of races like this, to model questions against.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Feb 18, 09 @ 8:54 am
JohnShibleyFan:

Try reading a newspaper. If you missed it, during the primaries, Hillary R. Clinton assailed Obama for “Change that you can Xerox” when she highlighted all of Obama’s plagiarizing from speeches given by Axelrod’s previous clients.

Comment by Honest Abe Wednesday, Feb 18, 09 @ 9:30 am
Read my post. We’re talking about 30-second ads, not sentences out of 20-minute stump speeches (a common occurrence as evidenced, embarrassingly, given her “Xerox” line, by Hillary using language Edwards had used).

Big, big difference.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Wednesday, Feb 18, 09 @ 5:53 pm
When I first saw that Fritchey ad, i thought of Russ Feingold’s ad from his first Senate Race where his opponents are (literally) throwing mud at each then it pans out to Russ just shaking his head. It won him that Primary and, if not for Burris coming back to bite him, this may have done the trick for Fritchey. pity…

Comment by SweetLou Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:29 am