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5th CD roundup

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* Rep. Sara Feigenholtz has a new TV ad…

* No surprise here. Voters are not just gonna wander into the polls…

The first three days of early voting in the 5th Congressional District special primary featured only 839 Democratic ballots cast in Chicago.

The highest numbers, such as they are, can be found in the 36th and 38th wards, machine territory where ward bosses favor state Rep. John Fritchey. The 36th Ward, run by Fritchey uncle-by-marriage Ald. William J.P. Banks, posted 112 votes. The 38th Ward, run by the Cullertons, posted 116 votes. Those numbers aren’t very high, however, showing how weak the ward organizations have become.

“Weak” except for all the other wards, which are practically nonexistent.

* As expected, Rep. John Fritchey filed with about $450,000 raised during the most recent reporting period. He’s raised another $48,000 in the past week or so. Feigenholtz has raised about $70K in the past week. Quigley has pulled in about $35K during that same period of time and O’Connor has reported about $5K. Bryar raised about $35K with all but $10K coming from himself (he raised about $173K during the last reporting period).

* Tom Bowen with Mike Quigley’s campaign has been playfully pestering Sara Feigenholtz for weeks on Twitter. And now, a Feigenholtz supporter is fighting back. Twitter Wars!

* Related…

* IL-5 Cattle Call

* Press release: The Asian American Action Fund of Greater Chicago (AAAFGC) [yesterday] endorsed State Representative Sara Feigenholtz to replace Rahm Emanuel in the 5th congressional district, saying Feigenholtz has been a long-time friend of Chicago’s Asian American community.

* Press release: Geoghegan for Congress today announced that it has received the endorsement of Democracy for America.

* ABC7’s Online Candidate Forum

* Tribune 5th Congressional District web page now online

* Candidates debate experience in 5th congressional forum

* Double Social Security? Geoghegan says yes.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 1:05 pm

Comments

That if my campaign manager is involved in a “twitter War” Instead of managing my campaign,

as Hawk would say

HE GONE!!!

Comment by I'm not saying, I'm just saying Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 1:25 pm
So what happened to Morrison’s claims that Fritchey’s numbers were ‘juiced up’? Looks like he’s raised over $500,000 in just 6 weeks, with no loans (despite the claims from his opponents). Not too shabby at all.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 1:28 pm
The ward orgs usually don’t like the early voting because those are the folks that are uncontrolled or voted before the precinct captain could get to them. The absentees are a better gauge of whether the ward is working. Also, the proximity of early voting to the ward is important. Early voting polling places are extremely limited in this election.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 1:37 pm
Sara’s ad was very predictable. Her natural base is women voters, her ad plays to them.

I saw Fritchey’s ad during the WGN news the other night, the one with the kids. I thought it was funny and very good. Although he looked a little wired, easy on the Red Bull John.

Comment by carbon deforestation Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 1:44 pm
I early voted. Meanwhile, there were two poor teenaged kids passing out flyers for Dr. Paul Bryar in front of the Montrose Brown Line stop today. If I was a Democrat, I’d vote for him as I felt sorry for the kids in the cold.

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 1:47 pm
Sara and Mike’s filing links show an error.

Comment by The 'Broken Heart' of Rogers Park Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 1:47 pm
In her IVI-IPO candidate questionnaire Feigenholtz said she is for single-payer health care. Why not say that in her TV ad where she addresses health care?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 2:00 pm
And where has the $ come from? Fourty thousand dollars at a fundraiser thrown by the Banks clan at their haunt in the Viagra Triangle, the Tavern on Rush. Is that really the money you want showing up on your congressional filing. He isn’t running for committeeman you know.

Comment by jerry morrison Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 2:04 pm
Fritchey is winning the “sign wars” throughout the district. Both in terms of numbers and size of his signs.

Based on gender I would guess Feigenholtz has the best shot at winning. Then I’d guess Quigley would be next.

Time will tell.

Comment by IrishPirate Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 2:04 pm
Rich, why won’t you post my comment about the crazy call I received last nite from Fritchey’s campaign manager?

Comment by jerry morrison Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 2:21 pm
I’m not sure what you’re saying about turnout based on the early vote numbers.

That’s three days and about 1,000 votes (adding suburban votes.) If you multiply it out across the next week, you might reach 4,000 early voters.

The average over the last several years is that 5% of voters vote early. So that might mean that this translates to a turnout of 80,000, which I’d say was phenomenal for a special election.

Last spring in the presidential primary, 10% of voters voted early. And in November, it was 20% of voters. If you use that as your baseline and assume my estimate of 4,000 was too high by 1,000, then you have a turnout of just 15,000.

But the November early vote was surely driven by the special circumstances and voter fears of long lines.

My bottom line is that I think early voters will be more like 8-10% of the electorate, and that we might see 30-50,000 voters. But it’s hard to say. I really have little idea what the first 3 days of early voting tells me, so I’m curious what you think it confirmed, and whether you remain as certain of that after seeing my little number game. What turnout are you expecting, in real numbers?

Comment by earnest Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:06 pm
Jerry, just a month ago I did not know anything about you but I was a supporter of most of SEIU’s initiatives. I don’t know if you have just started writing on blogs but do you notice leaders of any other organizations going around and starting internet fights with random people? I’ve seen you on two blogs now and none of it has been positive.

You will probably lash out and say I must be anti-Feigenholtz but I can’t imagine they think you are helping their campaign by trying to make posts about phone calls or any other recent posts. You should thank Rich for not posting whatever you wanted to post, step back from your keyboard, take a look at the posts you have made recently and seriously consider whether you should write on Internet blogs or at least reconsider the manner in which you make your posts. How do you think SEIU is benefiting from your ‘work’ here?

Comment by Help Me Help You Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:10 pm
Also, my inbox has an e-mail from DFA saying the following:

>After the first vote count, two candidates tied for the top spot: Mike Quigley and Tom Geoghegan.

>Both candidates are solid progressives who could deliver real results in Congress. But voters can’t vote for both of them on Election Day, they will have to choose just one. So we went to the tie-breaker and we have a clear winner.

I don’t know what that means. They don’t say what the tie-breaker was. Sounds like Geoghegan and Quigley both have a lot of support there.

Comment by earnest Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:11 pm
Just wondering, have any of the candidates pledged that they aren’t a R.E. placeholder and won’t step aside should he want his seat back?

Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:16 pm
I rarely read this blog and I have found the discussion here very entertaining. I live in the 5th and I don’t know if Jerry (if that’s who it is) is helping anyone, but, I live on the most northwestern part of the district and I certainly know who she is now. I like Sara, she’s tough, a good progressive I think she’s a good choice. I like her ad which some folks here seem to find fault with. We need more voices for health care reform…and fast!

Comment by I gotta say Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:20 pm
@lcd — i think all of them have. o’connor is the only one who seems to have been approached at all by rahm in that capacity

Comment by Anon84615 Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:21 pm
Fritchey’s disclosure shows $5,000 from the Payday Loan Industry PAC and HDO contributions. Quite the reformer.

Comment by chipolcon Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:27 pm
Completely agree with Help Me Help You.

Jerry-isn’t Fritchey a fellow Dem? You’re completely turning one Dem (me) off of SEIU with your pretty hateful and somewhat childish ranting against someone who-as I understand it-supports unions and what you stand for. Save your anger for the other team and leave the pettiness off Cap Fax…or keep it up and continue contributing to the “problem” side of politics and not the “solution.”

Comment by 44th Ward Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:41 pm
I’m old and confused by Twitter. I don’t get the allure. But I did find it lovely to see that Quigley’s campaign manager told his gf (a former Fritchey staffer!) that he loves her. How wonderful.

Comment by Scooby Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 3:44 pm
More interesting to me than an SEIU guy berating Fritchey is an SEIU guy working for Feigenholtz.

I mean, someone should check how many of Feigenholtz’s contributors are named in “Dangerous Choices”, the SEIU report about nursing homes and their management companies.

Was the SEIU wrong to single out these management companies? Or should Feigenholtz be returning their money?

Comment by earnest Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 4:00 pm
I can only tell what Capparelli is doing. He seems to play to target groups only. He has rejected offers for quite a few fundraisers because he is for strict campaign reform. His donors are friends and business associates many in motor racing. I hear he has an impressive list of big names who donated too.

Comment by ElectMike Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 4:43 pm
Jesse Greenberg again has an interesting post about the 5th CD race:
http://publicaffairs2point0.wordpress.com/2009/02/19/fritchey-pre-primary-filing/

Today marks the deadline for IL-5 candidates to file pre-primary financials with the Federal Election Commission. Early reports indicate that John Fritchey’s campaign had over $397,000 cash on hand, which at this stage would put him in a great position to spend heading into the final two weeks before primary voting.

But, Fritchey’s actual FEC filing indicates a different story. A closer look at the numbers leaves onlookers to question if Fritchey’s cash on hand is as high as it is reported. The campaign’s debts/obligations plus operating expenditures comes in at just under $75,000. However, I encourage readers to check out the detailed list of expenditures. Some of the largest expenses do not appear to be listed.

Comment by FlackerBacker Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 5:10 pm
Of course Fritchey’s expenditures wouldn’t reflect his TV ad…the filing period ended 2/11 — the ad just went up.

It’s common practice for campaigns to hold off on paying their bills to show more cash on hand. This isn’t exactly a practice started with the Fritchey ‘09 campaign.

Moreover, Greenberg goes on say “voters in the fifth know how much mail they’re receiving”

To qualify as journalism, the writer of the story ought to tell everyone else how much mail the voters in the fifth are getting. The implication is that Fritchey is sending out a significant amount of mail, but doesn’t say how many (if any) pieces have been sent.

Greenberg goes on to write, “It’s also no secret that a direct mail campaign is not cheap, easily running tens of thousands of dollars, perhaps as much as $50,000 or more in this campaign.”

50k is not going to buy you a very robust mail program. It might cover your postage for a moderate mail program.

Not the best piece of analysis ever.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 6:02 pm
Not great analysis, but he did a nice job of turning the Feigenholtz talking points into a hit on some very impressive fundraising. Greenberg seems more than willing to take his cues from whatever campaign sends him “inside” info.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 7:18 pm
My neighbor just called and said she was asked to respond to a poll for CD5 and it only offered 5 of the 12 candidates. That explains why the previous polls show some with 0% because I heard this after the last so-called poll too. We did an informal poll over the weekend from three spots and neither Quigley or Fiegenholtz were leading and every candidate had a percentage point or more. You would be surprised who showed well and I am not telling but so much for these high priced polls with only selected candidates offered. Stupid. Real dumb.

Comment by ElectMike Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 8:05 pm
ElectMike if you named all 12 candidates in a poll, I would hangup or leave by the time you got to number 7. The original poll you spoke about was done by Bryar, who received 0 % in his own poll. It did include all the candidates. There are six candidates that have any chance of winning. Everyone else is wasting their money.

Comment by ResearchGeek Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 9:19 pm
John Shelby Fan, your analysis of Greenberg’s piece is shortsighted. The point of the piece is that Fritchey doesn’t really have as much cash on hand as his FEC report would lead one to believe. You actually help make Greenberg’s point when you says it’s common practice for camps to hold off paying bills to make it look like they have more cash on hand - that’s obviously what Fritchey’s doing and it’s sure not that transparent for Mr. Reform and Ethics. This is actually a very good analysis that the mainstream media hasn’t picked up on.

Comment by FlackrBackr Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 9:45 pm
Just because it is not there does not mean it was not filed. Capparelli filed and that’s a fact.

Comment by ElectMike Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 10:40 pm
So Fritchey trounced the field in money raised since getting in the race, doubling Sara’s take since then and tripling Mike’s, and you people try to turn Fritchey’s fundraising numbers on him. Turning it into an ethics issue? You’re looking pathetic and nervous.

Even worse is that just 2 weeks ago, Sara was pitching potential donors that Fritchey was going to drop out because he couldn’t raise any money.

You know what else is pathetic? That when you do the math on Sara’s numbers, you quickly realize that she is actually six figures in DEBT.

I guess I’d be doing some spin too if those were my finances.

Comment by Fact Check Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 10:53 pm
Just asked the guy. He said it was filed. maybe a glitch somewhere.

Comment by ElectMike Thursday, Feb 19, 09 @ 11:58 pm
Geek,

I should have explained my answer better. I have also figured in the numbers from her latest TV buy and some other figures.

Comment by Fact Check Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 12:06 am
Interestingly, its pretty well known among statehouse lobbyists that Fritchey took the lead on “fixing” the state campaign finance issues that Blago messed up with his Executive Order so that he could make the ask for contributions for his congressional campaign. That doesn’t sound like a reform candidate to me.

Comment by FlackrBackr Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 2:12 am
Wow, as a sometime statehouse lobbyist, I hadn’t heard that FlackrBackr. Thanks for letting me know what I should have known apparently.

Weird too, because I was pretty sure the federal campaign finance laws were completely separate from Illinois’ wide open system, so I’m not sure what “fix” you’re referring to, interestingly or not.

I suspect you wouldn’t recognize a “reform candidate” if he won the 5th CD Democratic nomination, but we’ll see how that sounds soon enough. Thanks for the insight!

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 2:37 am
Hey 47th Ward, since you are so quick with advice for everyone else concerning tone and tenor on this blog why don’t you take a closer look at your own comments. Are you sure the snarky attitude is the most productive. As a sometime lobbyist maybe you should have known that John Fritchey received the John Egan Award for protecting consumers from the payday loan industry in 2005 and in 2007 he killed the Citizen Action bill to close payday loan loopholes. All this while lobbying for the payday loan industry and, oy ya, he just took $5,000 from the payday loan industry PAC. DOes that sound like a reformer to you? Maybe you should keep your eyes open when you are in Springpatch. John needs some watchin.

Comment by chipolcon Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 8:48 am
47th ward, as a statehouse lobbyist, you then probably know that the same person controls federal and state PACS in most companies/organizations. So fritcheys engratiating “leadership” on the state side ended up being a shakedown for money on the federal side.

Comment by FlackrBackr Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 9:19 am
Chipolcon….WOW, that is some bad record of playing out of both sides of his mouth. Fritchey played a reformer until his interests were against reform. I find it particularly sad that he received the Egan Award and then screwed over the activists. Based on this alone, I will tell my friends that he should be crossed off the list of candidates under consideration for a vote in 5. Unless the Fritchey people say that chipolcon facts are completely and totally incorrect.

Comment by Amy Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 9:20 am
Thanks Chipolcon,

At 2:30 in the morning, snark is all I have left to counter some of the nonsense here.

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 9:38 am
Amy, I am sure they have a perfectly plausible explanation. I have been told that the 2007 bill wasn’t “strong enough” and Fritchey was going to write an improved bill. Unfortunately, he never did that and Julie Hammos was forced to draft the bill herself. It is currently moving through the statehouse.

Comment by chipolcon Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 10:01 am
Umm, Flackrbackr…I made the tone comments. 44th is not 47th.

Comment by 44th Ward Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 11:04 am
Capparelli did his first direct mail.

Comment by ElectMike Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 1:44 pm
O’Connor has signs everywhere in 41. Most are not in CD5. There is a big Irish population so that’s no surprise. He has signs in Niles too. Niles is not in CD5 neither. maybe O’Conor needs a map of the district.

Comment by ElectMike Friday, Feb 20, 09 @ 6:15 pm