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Will she or won’t she?

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Illinois

* My syndicated newspaper column, which appears in papers large and small throughout the state, is about Mike and Lisa Madigan this week…

Back in 2005, I asked House Speaker Michael Madigan why he didn’t just run somebody against Gov. Rod Blagojevich in the 2006 Democratic primary if he was so upset at the way Blagojevich was running things.

“I did that once, and it led to 26 years of uninterrupted Republican rule,” Madigan cracked.

In the early 1970s, a very young Madigan was Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley’s point man in the House against Daley’s archnemesis, Democratic Gov. Dan Walker. That legislative opposition led directly to Daley’s forces beating Walker in the 1976 primary. Their candidate went on to lose to Republican Jim Thompson, and the GOP held onto the governor’s job until Blagojevich won the 2002 campaign.

I told you that story to give you an idea how Madigan may be sizing up next year.

Keep in mind that no matter what else you may read, the speaker won’t make the final decision about whether his daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, will run for governor. Ms. Madigan has a mind all her own. The elder Madigan will have significant input, but he won’t have any sort of veto power. Still, it’s worthwhile to look at how both Madigans are thinking right now and what options they confront.

Speaker Madigan is a man of unusually strict habits. When he finds something that works, he sticks with it forever, like having an apple every day at exactly the stroke of noon. And he almost always shuns things that don’t work. The hard lesson Madigan learned about that 1976 primary has stuck with him ever since: Avoid primaries against sitting Democratic governors.

Had Blagojevich survived, a primary against him next year would’ve been a different matter. The race would’ve gotten messy and divisive, but Blagojevich’s horrific unpopularity made him an easy mark. If the Madigans try to beat Gov. Pat Quinn in the 2010 primary, however, all heck could break loose.

Quinn can be slammed for running with Blagojevich twice and even defending Blagojevich after his ethics were questioned. Quinn’s new tax hike proposals are also extremely easy targets.

Quinn has never raised much money, and when he did it was at least partly because of his ties to Blagojevich. He had just $83,000 in the bank at the start of this year, compared to about $3.5 million for Lisa Madigan.

Quinn is not exactly the most astute campaigner and doesn’t seem prepared at all for the February primary, as evidenced by his repeated failed calls to move the primary date to June or September. His campaign committee filed for a name change from “Taxpayers for Quinn” to “Quinn for Illinois,” and then back to “Taxpayers for Quinn” within one 24-hour period last month. “Professional” is not a word anyone would use to describe his campaign style or apparatus.

So, he’s definitely beatable in the primary, but a Quinn loss to Ms. Madigan could divide the party and cause enough controversy that the Democrats will suffer badly in the fall. If Lisa Madigan does beat Quinn, her father’s powerful hold over the Democratic Party will likely become one of the most important November issues. The House speaker and state party chairman doesn’t want to give up either job, yet he may have little choice but to step down from one or both if he becomes the biggest obstacle to her victory.

And then there’s the question of whether Lisa Madigan really wants to be governor. She wanted nothing more than to prevent a third Blagojevich term, but now that primary motivation has been removed from office. Madigan has a young family and she’s young herself. She clearly loves being attorney general. There’s plenty of time to wait.

The other side of the equation is whether Quinn can fend off the Republicans next November. Tax hikes everywhere, Blagojevich’s humiliation, the ill legacy of total Democratic control and Quinn’s shortcomings as a candidate all add up to a very big “if” indeed. If Quinn is judged incapable of holding on to his post, the Democrats may have to go with someone else, despite the inherent dangers.

There are a kabillion factors to consider here, and the Madigan clan is best known for looking at all of their options before making any move, big or small.

On the one hand, we have Dan Walker and the noontime apple. On the other is everything else.

* Related…

* Topinka May Be Mulling Political Comeback

* Rutherford may have company in treasurer’s bid

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 9:32 am

Comments

Fascinating dynamics at work here.

I don’t know much about Lisa M., but I know being Speaker is MJMs life’s work, and that being Dem chair in support of his caucus is extremely important to him. He couldn’t even stand his long-time acolyte, Gary LaPaille, exercising a little independence in that position.

I also think MJM would do virtually anything for his kids. So if he had to step down from one or both posts to ensure Lisa’s victory, he’d probably do it.

It’s going to be interesting.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 10:10 am
I have stated many times on this blog that I do not believe AG Madigan will run for Governor in the next election. She had the highest number of votes for any candidate in the last election as an AG candidate. She has been successful at making current office seem competent and responsive to the citizens, and active, not reactive, on many issues. She has a young family, and while the AG’s office certainly takes time away from the kids, the pressures of the Governor’s office are exponentially higher. She is young and she has time. If Gov. Quinn gets flack for raising taxes, that will surely reflect on the members of the General Assembly who supported the increases. That reflection can cast a shadow on Dem House members, and the Speaker is loyal first to maintaining a Dem majority in the House. He would be hard-pressed to split attention between maintaining that majority and any AG Madigan gubernatorial campaign. If she wants the chief exec seat, I think she bides her time.

Comment by Captain Flume Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 10:10 am
I think Mike Madigan is an amazing political strategist. I am a Republican and have been disappointed when his strategies have beaten more qualified candidates for office, but I have long admired his genius as a strategist. You raise some really good points, Rich, on the dilemma the Madigans find themselves. Lisa is an excellent Attorney General and I would like to see her stay in that office for a few more years as she is doing a good job cleaning up the state. I do think she would be a good governor, though.

as for the treasurer’s race, part of the problem with the Republican Party is their penchant for letting candidates have their turn–we don’t get the best candidates for statewide office, particularly governor, because it is someone else’s “turn” to be the candidate. that is what happened when JBT ran against Blagojevich. there were better/stronger candidates but it was her turn. she was a good legislator and an excellent treasurer, but she didn’t make a good gubernatorial candidate.

Dan Rutherford would be an excellent candidate for governor and I wish he would run for that nomination rather than treasurer. it shouldn’t be Brady’s “turn” just because he has run in the past. he can’t win the primary and he can’t win the general election. we need the best and brightest to win the Republican primary in order to beat whoever the Democrats run. right now, I’m just not seeing a viable Republican candidate, even though there has never been a better time for the Republicans to take back the governor’s office.

Dan–we need you to run for Governor!

Comment by susie Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 10:16 am
Wouldn’t It Be Nice
- by The Beach Boys, modified by VanillaMan

Wouldn’t it be nice if I was older
And Dad wasn’t Speaker for so long
And wouldn’t it be nice to be elected
On my own and where I belong

You know its gonna make it that much better
When I am the governor and my own vote-getter

Wouldn’t it be nice if I could wake up
Without the toddlers smelling like pooh
And spent the entire day in my Office
Having important discussions with my crew

Happy times I’ll have in Budget spending
I wish that the taxes were neverending
Wouldnt it be nice?

Maybe if I think and wish and hope and pray it might come true
Baby then there wouldnt be a single thing I couldn’t do
We could be Governor
And then I’d be happy

Wouldnt it be nice?

You know it seems the more I talk about it
It only makes it worse to live without it
But lets talk about it
Wouldn’t it be nice?

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 10:31 am
Quinn needs to get some people on his political campaign that know what they are doing. You can go to GoDaddy.com and get TaxpayersforQuinn.com, TaxpayersforQuinn.org, TaxpayersforQuinn.net. They are ALL avaliable to buy….

Comment by TaxpayersforQuinn.com Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 10:50 am
Somehow I suspect people in Washington will have some say in this matter. Quinn so far looks clean, and there is a lot of work that he could do on a national basis. Unfortunately, with the tax increase I view him as unelectable if he runs for Gov. so the D.C. option might be best for everybody.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 10:51 am
Quinn is not a viable canidate at this point IMHO based upon his lack of resources. The idea of running with almost no funds is more romantic then realsitic for a statewide office. the idea of letting a repub into the Gov office is a bad idea for the dems. Give the GOP a strong position from which to rebuild.

Quinn needs to do smothing policy wise that garners him strong overall support, at this point he is more of an also ran if he decides to go for the big chair.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 11:36 am
TaxpayersforQuinn.com was bought this morning.

Comment by Cheswick Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 11:55 am
If Lisa really wants to be guv isn’t 2010 her best chance. She could likely beat any Republican so the primary would be the real election. Even if Quinn manages to get a few changes through, it looks like his big legacy is going to be an income tax increase. And he’s not the most compelling communicator.

And who knows what the political landscape might be in 2014 or 2018. The Republicans might
come up with some attractive new candidates, against all odds. Or some new Democrats could come along that we haven’t heard of yet. After all, Obama seemed to have appeared from nowhere.
It could happen at the governor level too.

Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 12:01 pm
Another VanMan classic. This one you can smell from a mile away (2nd verse) and evokes memories of Roland Burris’ “we are the Senator.”

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 12:17 pm
Kudos to you Rich, again for hitting the nail on the head. Clearly the “dominoes” question is looming over all of the state’s top Democrats (minus Giannoulias who is already running for Senate). Yet, you’re the only one in commentary-land to look at the big question in depth and analyze it they way that she / they are.

I think that Quinn is extremely vulnerable both in a primary and in the general. I think he’s probably the only major candidate that the Democrats could lose with. He’s not good on TV, he’s not much of a fund-raiser and he was Blago’s 2x Lite Gov. Taxes will matter of course, but with the trial preparations happening in earnest in fall 2010 and his book due out, I think the election will mostly be about Blagojevich. If Burris runs, even more so.

I urge Lisa Madigan to run because she will be a great governor, a strong governor, an honest governor. Quinn isn’t a bad guy, he’s just the accidental governor and he’s vulnerable. It’s not that different to how she ran for Senate. Farley was well-liked, but he was vulnerable. HA! Beat you Rich - one good reference point you missed.

Comment by Hon. Cranial Lamb (formerly carbon deforestation, formerly . . .) Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 12:51 pm
The GOP needs to get someone who can bring its factions together and soon! Time is running out. Democrats also need to make up their minds who is running, petitions are going out in August; field people have to be in place (more for the GOP because they have no statewide offices) and 10,000 signatures are not that easy to get. None of the GOP announced candidates have a chance to win, the GOP leadership better beg the one or two who could win the Gov’s race to get in NOW! Here’s a clue Andy the candidate will have to raise $20 to 25 million dollars for the General election.
I think if the right guy runs for Gov a more middle of the road candidate could run and win for US Senate (Kirk). There’s a chance for the rest of the ticket if the right people are at the top! The key word here is Leadership!!! And one more thing. Schillerstrom if you think you can run for Governor think again! The tax raising crap you and Joe Burkett tried to pull will take away the main issue the GOP has, face it you screwed yourself working with the Democrats. Nobody will forget!!!!

Comment by northsidevoter Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 1:24 pm
Hon. Lamb
Remember Farley? He got in trouble for ghost payrolling just when Lisa wanted to run. What a coincidence hu?

Comment by northsidevoter Tuesday, Apr 14, 09 @ 1:30 pm
***“I did that once, and it led to 26 years of uninterrupted Republican rule,” Madigan cracked.”***

This is why I stand by any of my statements that our state will never be cleaned up until Mike Madigan is gone. He is saying, I would rather give the worst governor in our history 4 more years, then let any republican have a chance. No more arguing republicans are too partisan.

On the merits of her job performance, Lisa Madigan is a joke. She could not get a job based on her intelect and abilities with any downtown firm. Read her public comments on any high profile legal issue, and you can tell she has no idea what she is talking about.

Then there is the consitituional issue. Can she really negotiate at arms length with her father, the budget and other issues. No. She eliminites separation of powers in IL which is unconstitutional.

Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Apr 15, 09 @ 8:33 am