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Question of the day

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Illinois
Polls

* The setup, from a Public Policy Polling survey of 415 likely Democratic primary voters between April 24 and 26th. Crosstabs and press release are both at this link…

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Roland Burris’ job performance?

27% Approve
49% Disapprove
24% Not Sure

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky?

42% Favorable
8% Unfavorable
50% Not Sure

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias?

53% Favorable
10% Unfavorable
37% Not Sure

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic Attorney General Lisa Madigan?

74% Favorable
13% Unfavorable
13% Not Sure

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat Quinn’s job performance?

56% Approve
14% Disapprove
30% Not Sure

Q6 Next year do you intend to vote in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary, or are you not sure?

100% Democratic
0% Republican
0% Not Sure

Q7 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate were Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias, who would you vote for?

20% Burris
49% Giannoulias
30% Undecided

Q8 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, and Alexi Giannoulias, who would you vote for?

16% Burris
26% Schakowsky
38% Giannoulias
21% Undecided

Q9 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, Alexi Giannoulias, and Lisa Madigan who would you vote for?

13% Burris.
11% Schakowsky
19% Giannoulias
44% Madigan
14% Undecided

Q10 If the Democratic candidates for Governor next year were Lisa Madigan and Pat Quinn, who would you vote for?

45% Madigan
29% Quinn
26% Undecided

* The Question: You’re pundit for a day. Pick a few responses, delve into the crosstabs if you desire and analyze away.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 11:59 am

Comments

Q9 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate
next year were Roland Burris, Jan
Schakowsky, Alexi Giannoulias, and Lisa
Madigan who would you vote for?

13% Burris.
11% Schakowsky
19% Giannoulias
44% Madigan
14% Undecided

What we has discovered, is that voters will support a candidate that jails convicts over a candidate that does business with them, a candidate with a possible future as one, and a candidate who is married to a convict. 14% of those polled threw up.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:07 pm
Q10 If the Democratic candidates for Governor next year were Lisa Madigan and Pat Quinn, who
would you vote for?

45% Madigan
29% Quinn
26% Undecided

What we see here is what happens when voters are given a choice between a boring Lt. Governor and a boring Attorney General - 26% of respondents would rather have a gun held to their heads.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:10 pm
Q7 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate
were Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias, who
would you vote for?

20% Burris
49% Giannoulias
30% Undecided

With this response, we clearly see that 20% of those polled prefered Rod Blagojevich’s choice, 49% prefered Obama’s choice, and 30% were normal.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:16 pm
VanillaMan - I think boring is not such a bad thing considering what Illinois experienced. Instead of boring, lets call it “serious leadership.”

And, Lisa had been called a lot of things, like a fighter, etc., but boring just doesn’t fit.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:18 pm
VanillaMan,

What we see here is 100% of respondents don’t care what you think.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:22 pm
Stick to your own analysis, please.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:24 pm
Like Bears third-string quarterbacks, candidates who have yet to declare for a race historically enjoy unusually large, if soft, support. Once they get in the game, things change.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:25 pm
I would be very interested in crosstabs aligning where these candidates vote on the issues. You would see very different numbers for Jan if folks understood her voting record.

Comment by 2010 Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:35 pm
Q10 If the Democratic candidates for Governor next year were Lisa Madigan and Pat Quinn, who
would you vote for?

45% Madigan
29% Quinn
26% Undecided

Voters are telling the rest of the nation: we don’t give a damn about reform. Weren’t you morons watching when we re-elected Daley over and over and even re-elected Blago until you shoved it in our face so much with those tapes we had to get rid of him less we look worse than Louisiana? Leave us alone!

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:44 pm
Since this is a partisan poll, the interesting thing is that, for now, Madigan and Giannoulias appear to be able to write their own ticket. And all of those in the poll have records, so that voters ostensibly know (or should know) what they’re getting to a large extent.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:44 pm
Out of all polls to consider or reject a poll that asks the person being interviewed to press a number on their phone is the least informative. This is pretty worthless. I hope no one paid alot for this.

Comment by babs Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:46 pm
===This is pretty worthless===

You win the prize. Usually it takes longer for some random commenter to try to undercut a poll posted here.

Automated polls are controversial, but they’ve been proven accurate over and over again.

Take a breath.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:47 pm
Q11 Which internet blog site do you believe to be the most accurate in political reporting?

13% Rachel Ray’s Yumm-OH Recipes!
11% Baywatch Babes Today
19% Fox News
44% The Capitol Fax Blog
14% Undecided

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:49 pm
Stick to the question, please.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:51 pm
I think Alexi has good name recognition but when he starts making more public speaking appearances his overall oddness will show more and his numbers will go down. Madigan’s numbers will maybe improve once she gets out there more. I think a good question of the day is who is going to get a smaller percentage of the vote in Cook County, Burris or Stroger.

Comment by Jake L. Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:52 pm
Q6 Next year do you intend to vote in the
Democratic primary or the Republican primary,
or are you not sure?

100% Democratic
0% Republican
0% Not Sure

Illinois Democrats prefer fiction to non-fiction.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:58 pm
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky?

42% Favorable
8% Unfavorable
50% Not Sure

- 2010 - Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 12:35 pm:

I would be very interested in crosstabs aligning where these candidates vote on the issues. You would see very different numbers for Jan if folks understood her voting record.

- Or know who she is.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 1:03 pm
Burris has them right where he wants them.

Ps mobile commenting rules.

Comment by dan l Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 1:11 pm
jake,

what do you mean by “overall oddness”? It seems to me, in running against his party in the primary and against the other in the general election, Alkexi demonstrated considerable personal appeal

thanks

Comment by corvax Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 1:14 pm
2010, these are likely Democratic primary voters. I doubt her numbers would be much different. She might actually do better.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 1:25 pm
So much for Jan’s poll numbers - kind of unfortunate for her because that was a fast 2 days. Why no Jan/Alexi head-to-head in this one? Also interesting, Alexi leading in the African American community with Burris in the race.

Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 1:31 pm
I don’t doubr that Lisa Madigan trumps all the other candidates for U.S. Senate. Only problem is that I edon’t think she wants to be the next U.S. Senator from Illinois at this stage in her life/career. I beleive Madigan would defeat Burris and Alexi easily. Governor Quinn wishes/dreams that she would run for Senate instead of Governor. Quinn would endorse Madigan immediately if she declared her candidacy for the U.S. Senate. I think the best thing for the Democratic Party is if Lisa M runs for Governor, giving other ambitious Democartic leaders an opportunity to move up the political food chain. Quinn looks pretty vulnerable to me, notwithstnding his good intentions and credible effort to turn the state around.

Comment by Captain America Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 1:34 pm
Q9…..Burris has larger base than Jan? wow.

Comment by Amy Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 1:42 pm
Q9 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, Alexi Giannoulias, and Lisa Madigan who would you vote for?

13% Burris.
11% Schakowsky
19% Giannoulias
44% Madigan
14% Undecided

Let’s see here, 13% of people thought they were voting for Susan Boyle. 11% of people were just hoping the operator would say Schakowsky again. 19% of people have developed a Pavlovian “Yes” response to anyone who has ever been connected to Obama. 44% of people are “kind of starting to miss Blago…” 14% of people heard the list of names, went into convulsions, and threw their phones out the window.

Comment by I-N-I Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 1:46 pm
Q9 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, Alexi Giannoulias, and Lisa Madigan who would you vote for?

13% Burris.
11% Schakowsky
19% Giannoulias
44% Madigan
14% Undecided

With all of the bad press Burris has nowhere to go but up. I’m pretty surprised he is polling higher than Schakowsky, after every newspaper in the state called for him to resign. I suspect most of his supporters are AA’s concerned about the lack of black senators.

Alexi deals and that broadway bank smell, if it gets some play he’ll stop looking like Camelot. Speaking of that why didn’t they poll Chris Kennedy? It looks like he may toss his hat in the ring.

Comment by avarus Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 3:05 pm
Q9 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were between these political dynasties, which one would you support?

13% Richard M Daley’s brother, Prince William of Chicago, son of King Richard J. Daley of Chicago
11% Robert F. Kennedy’s son, Prince Christopher of Hyannis, nephew of Legendary King John F. Kennedy
19% Tom Hynes’ son, Prince Daniel, The Steadfast, Pale and Boring One
44% Michael J. Madigan’s daughter, Queen-In-Waiting, Princess Lisa of Daddy’s Checkbook
14% Bill “Big Lip” Lipinski’s son, Prince “Lil Lip” Daniel of Tennessee

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 3:28 pm
==Q8 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, and Alexi Giannoulias, who would you vote for?

16% Burris
26% Schakowsky
38% Giannoulias
21% Undecided

Q9 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, Alexi Giannoulias, and Lisa Madigan who would you vote for?

13% Burris.
11% Schakowsky
19% Giannoulias
44% Madigan
14% Undecided==

It seems Burris has a current solid base of around 15%. Replace Madigan with one or two more less popular/known candidates (such as a Kennedy, perhaps), give the voters a year to “move on” from the Blago appointment, and Burris’ numbers could be dangerously close to striking distance of stealing the nomination.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 3:29 pm
===give the voters a year to “move on”===

He doesn’t have a year. He has about eight and a half months.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 3:34 pm
Q6 Next year do you intend to vote in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary, or are you not sure?

100% Democratic
0% Republican
0% Not Sure

It sure looks like this will be a blue state again.
No surprises on Burris, it looks like the Senate seat is open to a nonincumbant for sure.

It also looks like Madigan won’t need the big war chest she can pick her race and come out ahead. Would Quinn run for Lt. Gov?

Vanilla Man,
Q11, Right you are!

Yep 44% on your pol Capital Fax being most accurate

Comment by Third Generation Chicago Native Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 3:47 pm
==He doesn’t have a year. He has about eight and a half months. ==

Given the short attention span of most voters, that’s plenty of time to cause some to sweat if the scenario plays out.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 3:56 pm
Q1 Burris disapproval 49%
This means, even though on life support, he’s not dead yet. It means if there is a divided white vote Burris could win the primary at about 30%, the anger seems to be dying down. Except if Lisa Madigan runs for senate, then she will win, she makes Jim Edgar’s popularity look like Bush’s.

Comment by kj Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 4:20 pm
Quinn’s popular with repubs and independents and it looks like he will need some to vote in the dem primary.
Madigan’s popularity, gender and money is formidable.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 4:41 pm
===Quinn’s popular with repubs and independents===

He has a strong job approval with them from a poll we’ve seen. But as this and other polls have shown, high job approval for Quinn does not equal strong polling against LM.

Call me crazy, but I doubt many Repubs will take Dem ballots to vote for a guy who tried to raise their state tax rate by 50 percent.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 4:57 pm
Q6 Next year do you intend to vote in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary, or are you not sure?

100% Democratic
0% Republican
0% Not Sure

It sure looks like this will be a blue state again.

Ummm, I think the question tree terminated if the caller indicated anything other than D. Thank you, and have a good day. Click.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 6:09 pm
No surprises, but avarus is right, it would have been interesting to see Kennedy tossed into the mix.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 9:32 pm
Rick, fill me in on the joke. She has put Illinois on the forefront of issues like meth and home foreclosures (even ahead of the feds) and more. In the Blago media circus, she was the one credited with making the state look like it may still be the home for intelligent life. I haven’t studied up on her record, but me and 74% of the rest of us have come away with a good impression.

Is the joke that her dad is in the business too, and she is outshining him? Help me out here.

Comment by Ann O'Namus Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 10:00 pm
Let’s do another poll soon and include Kennedy in the mix; that could be very interesting.

Comment by There you go again Wednesday, Apr 29, 09 @ 10:19 pm