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First, read this.
Republicans have long been expecting a primary for governor, and recent efforts to pare what is currently a five-way race for the nomination in an effort to prevent a bruised and penniless nominee have so far been unsuccessful.
“My best guess is the field will look exactly this way after filing,” said one contender, state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R-Elgin).
Still, he said, he anticipated more discussions among the candidates–particularly between himself and the other two social conservatives–about whether it would be best for them all to proceed in the contest.
“I don’t think anybody’s ready to blink. But what I sensed was there was a genuine concern about us being prepared to go forward next year,” he said of the GOP field, which also includes state Sen. Bill Brady and businessmen Ronald Gidwitz and Jim Oberweis.
Do you think any of the conservatives will drop out soon? Why or why not? Who? Why?
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 7:18 am
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Gidwitz is the first to go. He was a no show from the very beginning. Followed by Brady. Rauschenberger and Oberweiss will probably stick it out.
Comment by ChicagoDog Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 7:54 am
To many large ego’s to get out of the race. Maybe Brady drops for the good of the party and because he is the only one that has a real future at the next level.
Comment by Anon Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 7:55 am
Sadly, I don’t think any of them will drop out and the 5 GOP candidates will continue into the election in March. This won’t do the party any justice, when they should be working together, combining resources and finding a way to get to a middle ground on their issues with their candidate for Governor and the running mate for Lt. Gov..
I don’t see any conservatives dropping out, because they believe wholeheartedly in their candidacy and their beliefs. Not that I agree with them, but they have the cajones to do it, and seem to know it will blow up in their face at the end, well then, have at it. Knowing what they’re up against, and that the GOP chair is trying to get them to trim down the “cast of characters” before the election, I can’t believe that none of them seem to be willing to take a serious look and realize they truly can’t make it to the end a serious contender.
By the way, Rich. Thanks!
Comment by Tessa Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 8:19 am
I have to agree with 7:55 about the egos.With what I have seen on the poll numbers it would almost be impossible to make up enough to even be a close race.Rich like you new set-up but sorry about the donkey brains that went to the old one.That is the kind of people that really need to get a life.
Comment by downstate Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 8:23 am
Rauschie should go first. He doesn’t have the funds to run in this governor’s race. He should take his budget expertise, and his several hundred thousand dollars, and run for treasurer.
Brady should go next. He should probably hold his senate seat and wait for a time when he is better positioned to make a run at higher office. He has shown that he can raise the money and can generate some support.
I can’t see Gidwitzz staying in. He has spent millions and hasn’t moved numbers at all. This leaves Oberweiss and Topinka. Obie hs made it clear that he isn’t from the old guard and that he can bring genuine reform to springfield, while Topinka comes from the GRyan republican party and cannot claim the ethical highground. Seeing the race as something he can win, Oberweiss will begin to pound Topinka relentlessly on these issues. Oberweiss has money and he won’t be afraid to spend it.
It will be Oberweiss vs. Topinka. Good race.
Comment by the Dude Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 8:51 am
I don’t see any of the conservatives dropping out, for the reasons mentioned, mainly egos. Especially Rauschenberger, he has something to prove after his lame US Senate run.
Comment by AngryJolietan Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 9:28 am
7:55 is on the right track. It all boils down to one word: Ego. Egos get in the way. The far right of the party would rather Rod Blagojevich win this race, than have a moderate Republican.
Further, In their eyes it’s all about cleansing the party. I realize I am generalizing, but for many on the far right in this state that appears to be the case. With the exception of Oberweis, I like these other guys. However, they had an opportunity to run for other offices, but instead their egos got in the way.
Comment by SalukiDog Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 10:12 am
AJ, I disagree about Rauschy’s Senate run. He would’ve done better than 3rd (although maybe not pulled out the win) if he had the same resources as JACK! ryan and/or Jom Oberweis.
I can’t see any of them dropping out now. It’s a shame that Brady didn’t drop out and focus on a lesser spot like Treasurer or Comptroller, although I think Radogno and Pankau can each do well in their respective races. Oberweis certainly won’t drop out because he is convinced he is the second coming of Ronald Reagan (without the catchy slogans, personality or track record).
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 10:27 am
Brady and Rauschenberger should drop out. Neither is getting traction. Both are polling in the low single digits. And neither is going to have the cash or operation to change that.
Comment by Let's Beat Blago Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 10:31 am
Gidwitz will be the only one to drop out, but Conservative groups are so outraged by Topinka, they will coalesce around a single candidate, even if nobody drops out. Brady will become that frontrunner.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 10:37 am
Well, you can say that in reverse:
the establishment of the party would rather Rod Blagojevich win this race, than have a conservative Republican.
I guess someone will drop out also, but not until mid - late Jan.
Comment by Pat Collins Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 10:59 am
I hope all the conservatives stay in because I think the Republicans best chance for victory is JBT. If all the conservatives stay in they will split the right wing vote.
Comment by leigh Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 11:09 am
The smart money is not wasting it. Gidwitz should drop first and back Topinka. Let the others split the votes among themselves, letting Judy look like a big winner and setting up Brady as a future pick.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 11:15 am
Sadly, none will agree to drop out. If all train their ads on Topinka, it is possible that one of the three could win the nomination, but that scenario is doubtful.
As the IL Shadow (I think) wrote, they will steal each other’s votes, and JBT will be the nominee.
Illinois will be treated to a race where two liberals will try to fool enough voters into believing that they are centrists.
The very low turnout of conservatives will guarantee that Dems add veto proof majorities to both the House and Senate.
One would think that McKenna & Edgar are smart enough to know this will be the case.
They are either deluding themselves or scenario just described must be their intent.
Comment by Extreme Wisdom Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 11:17 am
Team Sleep: I disagree. Rauschy got in the game late in the GOP US Senate Primary. Had he decided earlier on to run, I bet he would have gotten a good chunk of the support that went to Ryan because Rauschy hemmed & hawed about running.
Comment by AngryJolietan Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 11:52 am
Off point, but clearly related to this topic:
Rich Miller, why did you write, when discussing Topinka in your newspaper column, that the Swift Boat Vets allegations were “outrageous”? Kerry’s own campaign manager conceded the truth of one of their most important allegations one month after it was published.
Are you suggesting that you will write that certain attacks on Topinka’s troublesome past (e.g., for starters, abortion flip-flops, Geo Ryan alliances, her “Swift Boating” of Sen. Fitzgerald, her undercutting of Republican conservatives and other Republican women) is “Swift Boating”?
Comment by Anon Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 12:22 pm
Did anyone notice the reports that AccordianGal’s running mate, Asbestos Doug Whitley, also describes himself as prochoice. That should bring the wing nuts on board pronto.
Oh, I remember now, this is the EDGAR plan to win by getting all the Dems to vote for AccordianGal.
TeeHee
Then BlinkyJim will still be the last GOP Gov. abd all will bow down to his legacy.
Comment by reddbyrd Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 12:54 pm
As I outlined on my blog last week, I don’t think any of them will drop out. Oberweis has nothing to loss by staying in and nothing to gain by dropping out. Raushenberger has already thrown his hat over the wall thanks to his rhetoric. And Brady has enough money and endorsements to make him believe he can make it all the way. Ironically, Brady probably has the most to gain by dropping out, since he hasn’t burned any bridges and a grateful party leadership may reward him later, but he also has the best chance of forming a respectable right-of-center coalition between social conservatives and business interests.
Comment by grand old partisan Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 1:20 pm
Brady should drop out, and for those of you who think he’s qualified for the next level, you’re clearly not aquainted with his record or background
Comment by anon Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 3:15 pm
Anon, would it kill you to make up a nickname?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 3:24 pm
Don’t sell Rauschenberger or Brady short regarding their poll position. I feel that these numbers will change significantly. Many in the Illinois GOP are the “silent independents” who will vote their choice based on candidates abilities and the voters wish for a fresh/clean start within the Illinois GOP. Their votes will not be based simply on name recognition. All GOP candidates are good people but only two are best qualified to deal with the financial dilemma Illinois is faced with.
Comment by Beowulf Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 4:15 pm
I have no horse in this race and from the previous comments its pretty obvious that most have an axe to grind with their comments. Each scenario they play out in their head magically benefits their candidate. Be it Topinka, Blago or someone else.
I think the conservatives know that they need to back one candidate because of the vote splitting factor. Many have suggested in e-mails I have received that their should be another Conservative summit. If this occurs then you might have something decided. I don’t see Obie getting out. He’s the outsider anyway. The Party could hold sway over Rauchy and Gidwitz. Brady is sharp and eyes the future so he might jump if he sees it hurting him long term.
I lean towrd thinking Rauschy and Obie staying in long term.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 4:51 pm
Brady won’t drop, the tides will turn for him. Gidwitz, he’ll go.
Steve, Bill, and Jim all are paying attention to the Governor’s approval ratings, they see blood in the water. Each candidate believes that the Republican that emerges from the primary will be the next Governor. They are in it for the long run. Judy’s not getting a pass on this one.
Comment by Bobby Hicks Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 5:31 pm
I think all the conervatives should drop excepot for Obie. He3 can beat JBT one on one. Thats the race we need to get the governors office back in republican control
Comment by right of right Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 5:54 pm
The Democrats are laughing at the antics of the radical right-wing. Both ego and ideaology will keep these extremists in the game.
Comment by Norseman Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 8:18 pm
First of all the party does not want any of the conservatives out, they know that is the only way for JBT to win. There have been 5 candidates in since GOP day in Aug where was Andy then? Was he asking forthe field to thin out? Not until Edgar was interested, and then it was everyone should get out. Now JBT gets in (LATE) and Andy wants a code of conduct? Last week one of JBT’s people were @ a chicago event and was pissed off that the “Party” did not give one of us JBT petitions! Have they passed anyone elses petitions for Governor? Of course not everyone else had to put their time amd money into their effort, not Judy she has the party passing her stuff!
There is only one question to ask any of the conservative candidates. How much do you have. And How much are you going to spend! If any of them answer less then 4 or 5 million they are toast and should get out of the race.
Comment by Devildog Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 8:24 pm
I have been involved in Republican Primary races for over 20 years- and the facts are *most* primary voters simply vote on name ID. That is the same for both parties- though the Dems have had an advantage in the Chicago area with their strong Precinct work. Bobby Hicks is probably right- all five GOP candidates think that IF they win the primary, they are a sure fire winner against this sitting governor. They may be right- time will tell.
And for the record- YDD and his fellow left wing nuts- we laugh when you tell “us” what is good for our party, and what is good for Illinois. We much prefer when you speculate on your fellow democrats (you know, who is next to get the visit from the feds, who is going to squeal, how many current investigations are currently underway on the mayor, the Governor, the county board president, etc). As a GOP primary voter, I DON’T need your help in figuring out who to vote for!!
Comment by evil terry Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 10:19 pm
It’s always interesting that somehow the conservatives have to drop out when there is a crowded field. Why didn’t Topinka just stay out her supposed front runner status is based on name recognition. Like all the other loser moderates that run their front runner status disappears when the GOP voters find out their pro-gay, abortion, gun control and spending/tax increases. Which I think is out of the mainstream of not only a GOP voters but Illinois voters. Beside the Democrats have a liberal to vote for why they would want to vote for ours.
As far as the conservatives getting out there are 3 Obie, Brady and Raushy from the posts you would think they should all get out. This would make it easy for Judy but sorry it’s not going to happen. In the last poll all candidates they seem to be in a dead heat with Blago even though some have better name recognition. Any of the candidates can beat Blago. Gidwitz is a moderate like Judy so he is indirect competition with Judy he has more money then Judy and more creditability I don’t see why he should get out.
I think it’s up to the conservative candidates whether to stay in. Obie will anyway, Steve may not have the support too, but might. Brady who I support is our best chance to get a fresh start and move the GOP into future with proven public policy Government experience, business background and mainstream values.
Comment by run4cvrlib Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 10:28 pm
I don’t see anyone dropping out. All want to wait and see if Topinka trips, in the hopes that they’ll be able to slide in if that happens.
Motivations/Opportunities for Each:
Topinka — if she weathers the attacks and comes out 5-10 points ahead of the next finisher, she looks like a winner and has the momentum. Also, the voters will have heard every possible charge and Blago’s attacks in the General may not have much traction.
Gidwitz — If Topinka trips, he wants to be positioned to capture the middle. He’s unlikely to attack because his positions are the closest to Topinka’s and he would run the risk of alienating the voters he needs.
Rauschenberger — He runs the risk of defining himself as an attack dog, but he has little to lose. He’s giving up his seat so this is likely to be his last campaign for awhile. He’s also a prisoner of his own campaign organization that is pushing him into a much more negative and extreme position than he is really comfortable with. If Rauschenberger goes more negative, he’ll help Brady and Oberweis.
Oberweis — he also has little to lose. But, he may realize that directly attacking Topinka could cost him votes. Instead, he’ll rely on the radical right to do the dirty work for him and he’ll hope he has enough name recognition to pull away from the pack.
Brady — he is in mid-term, so one might surmise that he also has nothing to lose. But, Brady is running for the future as well. He knows that if he makes a credible challenge and doesn’t alienate mainstream voters, he will be positioned to claim the conservative wing of the party as his own for future campaigns. Improving his name recognition downstate, remaining true to conservative principles but without alienating the eventual primary winner (if it’s Topinka) will help him in a future run for Congress or other statewide office.
I’ve never been all that worried about a “Bloody Primary.” I think it’s Topinka’s to lose and this will be a good test of how well she will do in the General.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Dec 5, 05 @ 11:10 pm
Somehow, I find it strange that name recognition seems to be what drives the Illinois GOP as to who they back within the Party. If that be the case, let’s ask Mike Ditka to run against Blago. He may not be the best qualified to deal with the issues but what the heck, he has that all important name recognition. Very few people take the time to vote in the Primary. I like to think that the ones that do are the voters who try to use reason and logic within the GOP rather than emotion. I like Rauschenberger because I feel that he is the most qualified to solve the state’s financial quagmire. I also realize that the other GOP gubernatorial hopefuls will be a “step up” from Rod, no matter which one makes it through the Primary in March. I am probably giving the voters too much credit but, I think that they will cast their vote based on idealogy rather than simply “name recognition”. Chances are if you don’t already know the cast of GOP gubernatorial candidates, you didn’t plan on voting in the Primary anyway. The General election, yes, because you are so upset with Blagojevich. But, it will be a very small state turnout, as usual, for the Primary. Thus, any one of the GOP candidates that sticks it out until March 21st has a good chance of winning the Primary.
Comment by Beowulf Tuesday, Dec 6, 05 @ 6:30 am
Brady, who I am currently supporting, should drop to Treasurer. Here’s why.
1. He can win it. Giannulus? Mangiwhatever? Dems are desperate on this one.
2. He wins, JBT loses. He’s the last one standing assuming Rutherford doesn’t beat White. He could be the conservative money antagonist for Blago for the next four years and make a run at it in 2010.
3. He wins. JBT wins. Likely White (assuming he wins) retires in 2010. Brady takes on the SOS job and lines himself up for 2014. It’s worked before.
4. By getting out Brady further ingratiates himself with the IL GOP. He shows he can put the team ahead of his own ego and pride. He also has time to build a strong network of Repubs.
5. He loses. He goes back to the Senate.
Who cares about the rest. Despite the school prayer gaff, Brady has been pretty error-proof so far. I agree that Rauschie’s people will push him over the edge. Illinois voters are lactose intolerent for the Milkman. And Gidwitz? Whatever. None of these dudes can beat JBT, Brady might but only if the others flinch. Bill think strategic here!
Comment by ExileOnMainStreet Tuesday, Dec 6, 05 @ 12:25 pm
I like the spin Brady should drop out to help him win later. That’s funny the JBT supporters must really be worried. JBT’s numbers in the polls are based on name recognition which for liberals drops like a rock as the campaign goes on and has since Salvi. People should just vote the issues and forget that JBT can win against Blago she won’t.
Comment by run4cvrlib Tuesday, Dec 6, 05 @ 4:09 pm