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A gaggle of millionaires and a governor with a boatload of cash combine to make Cindi’s prediction fairly obvious.
As candidates formally began their march to the March 21 primary Monday, experts predicted the 2006 election season will be an expensive one.
With crowded primary races for governor, lieutenant governor and state treasurer, candidates likely will easily surpass records set in recent years.
“We will definitely see some big spending,” said Cindi Canary, executive director of the Campaign for Political Reform, which tracks campaign spending in Illinois.
Consider this your primary predictions open thread.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 2:05 am
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GOP Governor’s race prediction:
Topinka 34%, Brady 28%, Obie 22%, Gidwitz 16%
Judy wins by convincing non-traditional GOP voters to pull a GOP Primary ballot. Brady will win if Judy can’t pull that off.
Rauschenberger easily wins Lt. Govs. race.
Mangieri and Rodogno will face off for Treasurer.
Comment by Illinifan86 Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 7:07 am
One of the things I am most proud of is the fact I am not dependent on the political process for my livelihood. I am not dependent on who is in office to get contracts, don’t need elections to make money, don’t depend political favors, contracts etc. I completely work within the confines of the captalism of the private sector.
That being said, none of these political looters will be getting a dime from me, nor a minute of my time to help. I do not need to pay for protection because I do not need it. And I have no intention of becoming dependent and enslaved to the process.
So with all of this big money being spent, one has to wonder…exactly how many people and how many companies and how much of Illinois’ wealth *is* enslaved to that process? Every year the stakes seems to go up even more.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 7:14 am
Blagojevich 72%, Eisendrath 28%
Mangieri 57% gianwhatever 43%
JBT 33%, Obie 32%, Brady 28%, Nitwitz 7%
Money talks and we know what walks.
And for the sake of disclosure I am not posting from the governors campaign office and have no stake in the election other than as a citizen. I am posting on my own time. I just blog for fun. I think some of us, at times, take ourselves a little toooooo seriously.
Bring it on!
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 7:38 am
Well, Gidwitz is on Mike North laying the blame of the Keyes fiasco at the feet of JBT. As chair, she does hold a lot of responsibility, but people seem to think his mate has a lot to do with bringing him in.
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 8:30 am
He just ducked a caller who asked the question by saying “Well, i would have loved to see Rauschenberger as the candidate”. Nice duck, vote Brady!
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 8:36 am
I think it is too early to make realistic predictions on races. However, I just want to make the following point. With all due respect to Ms. Canary and her fine organization, I am already so sick of watching and listening to the endless run of holiday commercials (particularly for the automobile companies) that I am actually looking forward to the lies, half-truths and pandering in the campaign commericals! Bring them on!
RANDALL SHERMAN
Secretary/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government
Chicago
Comment by Randall Sherman Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 8:58 am
Anon 7:14, You may be completely in the confines of capitalism and the private sector but that doesn’t exempt you from the effects of what goes on in Springfield.
Rest assured your competition in the private sector is paying attention and perhaps even trying to garner favor with those in government. Their action combined with your inaction will give them the leg up.
Comment by MDP Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 9:03 am
I love that opening sentence, Rich.
“…governor with a boatload of cash combine to make Cindi’s…”
Was it an intentional subliminal message, or a Freudian slip to get “combine” into a sentence about political cash?
John Kass would be proud.
Comment by Extreme Wisdom Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 9:49 am
Brady will be lucky to break double digits, the guy has no money and is clownshoes. JBT will walk away with this.
Comment by anon Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 10:12 am
anon 10:12 Rod– I hope you continue to have that attitude throughout the primary and general election, because Brady has an excellent shot at winning the primary, and you are VERY afraid of that, because if he does, he will have all the money he needs.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 10:53 am
If Obie can get Kathy to run for Lt. Gov. all bets are off. Kathy will run anti-combine. Obie will take the high road.
We are a long way from the primary. Why is the filing date so early, anyway.
Comment by Truthful James Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 11:11 am
Here’s why Brady has a real shot at winning: the GOP moderate base isn’t much more than a third of the primary vote. Topinka and Gidwitz will split this vote (although Gidwitz won’t get much more than 10% of the vote).
Predictions:
Blago 69%, Eisen-whatever 31%
Giannulias 54%, Mangieri 46%
Brady 34%, Judy 32%, Milkman 23%, Gidwitz 11%
Birkett 46%, Rauschy 41%, others 13%
Comment by Charlie Murphy Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 11:13 am
My Cindi cetainly has a very keen sense of the obvious! What’s next? Let’s predict Cindi and a host of government funded pundits will make _____(insert your number) inane quotes about the influence campaign donations on campaigns.
It is a lot easier than trying to report on issues.
Thanks for helping our Johnny Deadlines to fill that space
Comment by reddbyrd Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 11:17 am
Rove’s backing Topinka. That’s why she’s in the running. She’ll take the Primary & lose to Blago in Nov.
As bad as Blago is, he’s better than Rove’s fingers all over IL. With Hastert’s help, he’s made us a county of TX. We don’t need to have the state renamed North TX.
Comment by Philosophe Forum Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 11:39 am
I can’t vote Rep in the Primary, but I sure was hoping to vote for JBT- Brady is too conservative for the swing-vote. Plus he has declared he will not raise taxes (big mistake and shows lack of experience). Keep it moderate or the Dems will stay in office (won’t bother me unless it is Blago).
Comment by Shallow Throat Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 12:01 pm
We are a long way from the primary. Why is the filing date so early, anyway
So the counties can print ballots and not pay rush fees.
I like Illini86’s idea about JBT wins with DEM votes. Too bad for her if there are heated DEM races. Might not Gun Ban make sure there is at least one hot primary race somewhere?
Say in Chicago/cook county?????
Surely not.
Comment by Pat Collins Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 12:14 pm
reddbyrd: first off, the Campaign for Political Reform is not funded by the government. Second, I’m sure this is not all that Cindi had to say about the upcoming election cycle….it is simply all that Erickson decided to include in his story.
Finally, you have a lot of nerve criticizing someone for not reporting on the “issues,” seeing as all of your posts are nothing more than immature name-calling and partisan taunts.
Comment by grand old partisan Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 12:58 pm
HoosierDaddy - First, I’m not a Rod operative (anon 10:12) and secondly he’s (Brady)not even polling out of the margin of error, and his donor list is roughly similar to the membership roster of Bloomington Country Club…a nice golf course, but it don’t buy a cup o’joe in DuPage
Comment by anon Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 1:13 pm
Dupage ain’t the state, anony. Granted, it’s big, but Judy’s going to have to carry a whole lot more than that. Money is not everything, or we’d have had a couple of wife abusers in the Senate race last time. (Sorry for the disparaging remarks about being a Roddite, but geez, he seems to be the top Brady-slammer.)
Comment by HoosierDaddy Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 1:59 pm
I would cross over and vote for JBT (I like her) but I just can’t pass up the chance to vote against Lip II (Danny Lipinski (D. “Inherited it from my Papa”).
Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 2:48 pm
Good point, anon 1:13. Brad’s money is coming from a very tight circle of friends. Rauschy dropped out because of no money. Brady doesn’t want to use his inheritance to run for office but doesn’t have contributors lining up, despiute the many months on the campaign trail. What does that tell you?
Comment by illrino Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 3:35 pm
Truthful James joins the Dude and Bill in predicting the long-awaited Blago vs. Obie contest!
Comment by Mole Whacker Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 3:56 pm
I think that JBT is going to gather far fewer votes than Andy McKenna, Karl Rove, and Denny Hastert think that she will get in the Primary. I think that there are quite a few uncommitted Republicans that have been simply silent (silent majority?) up to this point. The GOP Primary will be determined by who comes across as the most “sincere” in their television spots and public appearances. I think it is still anybody’s GOP gubernatorial race. Don’t sell Gidwitz short on his ability to get a far larger percentage of the vote than he has registered in the polls so far. Gidwitz is a relative unknown in politics. That could very well be a good thing in this race. It may well turn out to be a vote by the people in March to bring somebody fresh and untainted into state government. The old saying, “Throw the bums out” comes into my mind. Gidwitz came across very well this morning on 670 AM radio. He is too much of an amatuer to seem to be hiding anything or simply telling the voters what they want to hear. He came across as sincerely being in the gubernatorial race to fix the financial mess Illinois finds itself in. Sincerity is what the people are looking for. Brady is a good guy but I question if he wants to spend the wealth his family has accumulated on in a race that he is unlikely to win although he will make a decent showing.
Rauschenberger is the front runner for Lt. Governor. He has the financial acumen to fix things, the best grasp of the state’s social issues, he knows the art of conciliation and compromise with both parties, and more importantly the perception by the public of his having integrity. Unfortunately for him, he is the poor man in the group.
Oberweis has been making too many knee-jerk reactions to win the voters faith in his decision making capabilities. He has his loyal band of followers but it won’t be enough.
Judy Barr Topinka has the blessing of those in power within the GOP in Springfield and Washington. That can and most likely will work against her. She will be saying George who? Bob Kjellander who? People in Illinois have had a belly full of the special interest groups and the GOP “movers & shakers”. They want fresh blood for the GOP corpse that has been rotting down in Springfield since George Ryan and his club of political and business cronies ruled the roost in Springfield.
I think there might be a surprise upset for Governor this March 21st. Rauschie will be the Lieutenant Governor because voters trust him not to be part of the old Regime.
Joe Birkett was talked into running so he could pay down his old campaign loans. It is too bad Joe wasn’t running for Attorney-General.
Get ready for the negative GOP ads to start running. It is that time of year.
Comment by Beowulf Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 4:38 pm
Hey Grnad Old Party !
I assume your on your way home from work but
1. please notice the AND between Cindi AND govt pundits. I know the exalted CFPR is not funded by the govt.
2.Please don’t confuse the clever nicknames(AccordianGal, BrickheadJoe) with name calling.
3. The “issue” is almost always the crap that passes for political reporting in IL. That’s why I proposed the quote count contest.
The sooner folks wake up to that the better.
Comment by reddbyrd Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 5:03 pm
One thing is for sure - the Virility King will not be spending any of his warchest if his staff can help it. He’ll just propose more and more programs, print up handouts for the programs on the sly and distribute them to the citizens of Illinois - campaign propaganda and handouts, desguised as a giveaway program. He’s already on his way in that direction.
Comment by Curmudgeon Tuesday, Dec 13, 05 @ 11:37 pm
Mole,
I never predicted that Obie would win. See my previous post. I guesssing Judy. If by some miracle he does win the people will have a real choice in philosphies and about the role of state gov’t in our lives. If Judy wins it will be Blago vs Blago lite. Ill take the full strength version.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 6:41 am
Really. Why is the filing date so early? Is there a practical reason?
Comment by pieguy Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 8:57 am