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They know who Madigan is, and they don’t love him

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Illinois
Polls

* The Paul Simon Institute has a new statewide poll [fixed link]. The gubernatorial head-to-heads will probably get the most coverage, but there’s something more important that we should look at first.

Check out the highlighted results from these job approval ratings…

Illinois Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno
Strongly Approve 2.8%
Somewhat Approve 14.1%
Somewhat Disapprove 4.9%
Strongly Disapprove 3.3%
Don’t Know 75.0%

House of Representatives Minority Leader Tom Cross
Strongly Approve 4.1%
Somewhat Approve 21.8%
Somewhat Disapprove 6.8%
Strongly Disapprove 2.8%
Don’t Know 64.6%

Illinois Senate President John Cullerton
Strongly Approve 3.4%
Somewhat Approve 19.8%
Somewhat Disapprove 9.4%
Strongly Disapprove 6.1%
Don’t Know 61.4%

Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives Mike Madigan
Strongly Approve 8.3%
Somewhat Approve 32.1%
Somewhat Disapprove 20.8%
Strongly Disapprove 21.8%
Don’t Know 17.1%

The “don’t know” answer was prefaced by this statement from the pollster: “If you don’t know enough about that person, just tell me that.”

It’s long been said that Speaker Madigan couldn’t be made an issue in campaigns because voters don’t know who he is. That’s definitely true of the other leaders, but it doesn’t appear to be the case with Speaker Madigan.

For example, far more voters don’t know who Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is, or don’t know enough about him to make a judgment (46.8%) than Madigan (17.1%). The same goes for Comptroller Dan Hynes (41.0%).

About an equal number say they don’t know who is/enough about Roland Burris (16.4%) when compared to Madigan. And the difference isn’t all that great between Speaker Madigan’s “don’t know” numbers and Gov. Quinn’s (12.8%). The pollster said he was astounded by the Madigan results because most people in other states have little idea who the House Speaker is.

Also, obviously, Speaker Madigan’s support amongst the populace is quite soft, while his disapproval rating is far more intense.

* Methodology…

The survey of 800 registered Illinois voters was taken Sept. 8 to Oct. 9 and has a margin of error of 3.4 percent.

But the head-to-heads in the primary matchups have far higher margins of error…

Of those surveyed, 322 respondents said they would vote in the Democratic primary, and of those, 208 offered an answer. The results of the Democratic contest have a margin of error of ± 5.4 percent.

There were 201 respondents who said they would vote in the Republican primary, and of those, 89 offered an answer. Those findings have a margin of error of ± 6.9 percent.

89 with an opinion? Holy moly, that’s a microscopic sample size.

* Keeping those very tiny numbers in mind, the Dem results…

Governor Pat Quinn 33.9%
State Comptroller Dan Hynes 16.5%
Someone else 14.2%
Don’t know/No answer 35.4%

Republicans…

State Senator Bill Brady 10.0%
State Senator Kirk Dillard 7.5%
State Senator Matt Murphy 4.0%
DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillserstrom 3.5%
Radio Commentator Dan Proft 3.5%
Businessman Adam Andrzejewski 2.0%
Someone else 13.9%
Don’t know/No answer 55.7%

Also keep in mind that this poll was conducted before Jim Ryan and Andy McKenna announced and before Jim Edgar announced his support for Dillard, which (as I told subscribers today) may have given Dillard a big bump in recent polling.

And make sure you remember that the poll only picked up two days, at most, of Hynes’ TV ad buy.

* More job approval numbers…

U. S. President Barack Obama?
Strongly Approve 36.6%
Somewhat Approve 26.1%
Somewhat Disapprove 12.0%
Strongly Disapprove 22.6%
Don’t Know 2.6%

Illinois Governor Pat Quinn?
Strongly Approve 10.3%
Somewhat Approve 47.8%
Somewhat Disapprove 18.8%
Strongly Disapprove 10.5%
Don’t Know 12.8%

Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan?
Strongly Approve 33.5%
Somewhat Approve 34.6%
Somewhat Disapprove 10.6%
Strongly Disapprove 5.3%
Don’t Know 16.0%

U.S. Senator Dick Durbin?
Strongly Approve 27.9%
Somewhat Approve 31.1%
Somewhat Disapprove 11.1%
Strongly Disapprove 22.6%
Don’t Know 7.3%

U.S. Senator Roland Burris?
Strongly Approve 4.6%
Somewhat Approve 15.0%
Somewhat Disapprove 21.1%
Strongly Disapprove 42.9%
Don’t Know 16.4%

Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes?
Strongly Approve 12.0%
Somewhat Approve 36.6%
Somewhat Disapprove 6.8%
Strongly Disapprove 3.6%
Don’t Know 41.0%

62.7 percent approval for Obama is a notch higher than the 59 percent in the Tribune’s late August poll.

58.1 percent approval for Gov. Quinn is way higher than the Tribune’s 39 percent. That is probably because the Trib appeared to ask approve/disapprove/no opinion, while this PSI poll asked strongly/somewhat/don’t know. The Tribune had 35 percent with no opinion, vs. this poll at 12.8 percent. I’ve said many times before that Quinn’s support and opposition is soft, with most in the mushy middle. This poll and the Trib poll both seemed to show that as well.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 12:57 pm

Comments

wow Madigan thumps Cross 40+ to 25 TTFN StatewideTom

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:29 pm
wow, roland! the sad, but not surprising, part is that the only reason why people disapprove is because how he got the office, not because he’s actually done anything wrong as a senator.

good to know that people are so issues-orientated these days.

if todd stroger thinks he can survive, he’s very wrong. not only are people still unhappy about the way he got the office, many more are unhappy with the way he has conducted himself while in it.

Comment by Will County Woman Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:30 pm
I’m surprised more people don’t like MJM. He seems so warm and fuzzy and his off the cuff remarks about the Truman administration always get me going.

Circular–take a closer look at the favorable:unfavorable ratings. People know who Blago is too, ya know.

Comment by Easy Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:35 pm
A couple quotes come to mind when reading that about Michael J. Madigan.

Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

You can fool some of the people some of the time … but not all of the people all of the time.

You can’t accumulate and weild the amount of power Speaker Madigan has now without the people noticing who is weilding it. And when things go south, as they have, those numbers seem to reflect human history. People want to know who to blame and most of the evidence points to ILDEM Chair Madigan.

Comment by TaxThePoor Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:41 pm
==not only are people still unhappy about the way he got the office,==
Oh, you mean by winning an election?

Comment by Bill Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:44 pm
Field dates of Sept 8 - Oct. 9.? This is way, way to long to conduct a poll like this — too many things changed in that time. Longest field time for a poll like this should be 4 - 5 days. No disclosure of sponsor (who paid for it), methodology, screen (age 18+, RV, LV?), sample source, etc.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:46 pm
madigan’s approval is higher than that of cross, true, but he is -2% positive/negative, while cross is +9%. what i would be more interested in re madigan is cross tabs from chicago, cook county and downstate.

Comment by lakeview lawyer Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:47 pm
I’m surprised at the Madigan numbers, just based on personal experience over the years.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:04 pm
Can’t really compare MJM’s numbers to any of the other leaders. Their sky-high “never heard ofs” make their approve/disapprove ratios meaniless.

You can bet these numbers help explain why Lisa is not a candidate for Gov right now and why she probably won’t be until Dad decides it’s time to retire. Her pollsters saw the same thing.

Comment by rick d. Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:12 pm
The fact that Bill Brady has run for statewide office before, and has essentially been running statewide for 6 years, and still polls only 10% proves he is not electable. BILL BRADY cannot win statewide.

Comment by SNAZZY JAM Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:35 pm
Wow. this was before the Edgar endorsement. Dillard must be way up now!

Comment by JP Orien Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:36 pm
Bill Brady is bad news for the GOP. I agree with JP. He is just unelectable statewide.

Comment by Alice Waters Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:37 pm
Alice and JP. Have you seen this article about Brady. http://www.pantagraph.com/news/local/article_8d012506-90f8-11de-8b2b-001cc4c002e0.html

Bill Brady gave a state medical school scholarship worth almost $24K to the child of a man who donated thousands of dollars to him.

Politics as usual.

Comment by Fancy One Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:38 pm
I’ll top that. Bill Brady enabled Pro-Gay Agenda, Pro-Abortion Rights, Christine Radogno to be Senate GOP Leader. Because of Billy Brady, the most liberal GOP member is our leader in the Senate.

Comment by No to Brady Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:40 pm
Have you guys seen this.

http://www.twitter.com/billbradyfacts

Comment by Alice Waters Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:41 pm
–You can bet these numbers help explain why Lisa is not a candidate for Gov right now and why she probably won’t be until Dad decides it’s time to retire.–

Rick D, if that’s the case, why did Kirk say publicly he wouldn’t make a move until Lisa decided? He has pollsters, too, right?

How about the White House publicly asking her to go for Senate? They might have pollsters, you think?

What’s your over/under on her AG percentage? Who gets most votes statewide, Lisa or Jesse White?

Wishing doesn’t make it so.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:43 pm
#

–Have you guys seen this.

http://www.twitter.com/billbradyfacts–

Yeesh. That Tom Roeser is a real Happy Warrior, isn’t he?

Can anyone please that crowd?

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:47 pm
These numbers re MJM really don’t have any meaning regarding any re-election chances he may have. The numbers represent state-wide opinion polling. I wonder what his numbers are in his district - you know, the place where he lives and where his consituents live. I may add my negative voice to an opinion poll but if I am not a constituent it is meaningless.

Comment by dupage dan Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:48 pm
Nice try Ste-, make that CFS.

Someday you may actually have to find a real job.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 3:18 pm
Wow… Judging by the anti-Brady diatribes here, it appears he really is the frontrunner. Couple of things to correct from above. Anyone who saying Brady enabled the election of Radogno as Sen. Leader is either knowingly lying or is absolutely clueless. Either way, it’s a false statement.

The sample size in this poll is ridiculous, but it does match some trends from virtually all of the other polling that’s been done.

1. A lot of people are still undecided, which is not surprising.

2. Of those already making up their mind, Brady’s sitting at 25% in a 6-candidate race. That tracks along the lines of most of the other polling that’s been done.

3. Kirk Dillard polls in single digits in every poll that’s been done but his own. Hmmmmm….

Where are these voters from? Is it whoever in the state answered the call? Is it geographically balanced? My guess is that it tends toward Chicago and suburban areas, minimizing Brady’s downstate strength.

All in all, though, yet another poll showing Brady in the lead. Must be frustrating for the other guys with those Cook County endorsements rolling in.

The intensity of the anti-Brady blogging here should be encouraging to the Brady camp.

Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 3:18 pm
– wordslinger —

Notice I said “not a candidate for Gov…” I didn’t mention the Senate.

I don’t think her father would have been much of an issue if she decided to run for the Senate and I think she would have won easily.

But he would have been a BIG issue if she ran for governor — and the above polling numbers prove it. Asking the voters to turn two branches of state government over to one family is asking a lot — and it’s asking even more if one of those family members can be turned into pariah of some sort.

She didn’t run for the Senate because she didn’t want to go to Washington with a young family and she isn’t all that interested in being a legislator anyway — that’s what she said and I believe her. But she didn’t run for governor because she didn’t want her Dad to become a punching bag and because she could have lost race on the nepotism issue alone.

Comment by rick d. Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 3:27 pm
And just to clarify, wordslinger, I’m not wishing. Just observing.

Comment by rick d. Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 3:34 pm
Arthur, Arthur don’t whine so much…..it gives you wrinkles.
BTW let me know about which of your jobs is “real” TeeHee

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 4:00 pm
hmm I suppose I have to back of of my Mike Madigan is to insider baseball for anyone to recognize him position….. I am surprised by his numbers.

LMads numbers are pretty darned impressive…. well known and a small dissaproval. She is definetly in pocket for higher office when her kids get a little older.

Comment by Ghost Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 4:10 pm
Sounds like Madigan is pretty well known and likely is re-electable in his district. So the poll numbers aren’t of any significance other than to say he is “active” politically. Regardless of the fires burning around him he doesn’t seem to feel the heat.

I like Madigan and for one think he is bottom line for the people of Illinois. I think he hit the nail on the head when he basically said the Republicans are sitting on their hands. That, more than anything, will turn voters away and prevent a Republican takeover.

Comment by Justice Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 4:33 pm
I think a lot of the comments here are missing Rich’s point.

Of course, MJM is popular in his home district. The above numbers raise this question: is he well known enough and unpopular enough for the GOP to “run” against him on a statewide basis the way Congressional Dems ran against Newt Gingrich in the 90’s?

Comment by rick d. Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 4:41 pm