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* Which Republican gubernatorial candidate has the best chance of winning the general election? Explain your answer fully, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 11:26 am
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Kirk Dillard:
He is a Chicago style republican with Edgar’s endorsement. All others are either too conservative for Illinois, lack name recognition, or finished fourth in a primary for Senate.
Comment by Speaking at Will Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 11:33 am
Jim Ryan. Has been out of Springfield long enough to not be tagged with the recent troubles. Liked by Dems and Republicans alike. Is probably the only credible messenger on the GOP side for the “time to put the adults back in charge” message (among those with a real chance…sorry Andrzejewsky folks)
Two big caveats. 1) Has to figure a way to get past the Nicarico debacle. 2) MUST run a better campaign than in 2002.
I still remember when the press spent the day hyping his revolutionary new ad. Watched it on the 5 PM news rollout and the whole room sat there in stunned silence for a moment. Not that one ad made or broke that campaign, but was emblematic of a bad campaign.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 11:54 am
Kirk Dillard. If it’s true that independents in illinois are becoming disillusioned with Obama, Dillard is the best and safest bet to pick them off. otherwise they may just sit at home and stew about feeling “duped” by obama. Dillard also appeals to moderates, and might be able to pick off some.
I’m not sure how well dillard does against hynes, though. hynes is pretty scandal-free and because he isn’t the slated democratic candidate b appearance he’s free of “guilt by association” thing. If Hynes wins the primary, he [hynes] comes with clean hands.
If Quinn wins the primary, Dillard is probably sitting very pretty for Nov 2010, as he suggested when he announced his candidacy.
Comment by Will County Woman Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 11:56 am
Jim Ryan
He already has the name ID from winning statewide elections and therefore won’t need to spend much advertising it. He has excellent credentials and the ability to raise the funds to win the general.
His conservative lean appeals to Democrats.
Comment by East Central Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 11:59 am
Kirk Dillard, because he appeals to moderates, and the circular firing squad seems to be holding their fire (so far) in actual slim hopes of a win reminiscent of the 80’s and 90’s. However, in IL this can change fast.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:02 pm
Dillard has the best chance of winning in the fall due to his moderate views and proven abilities to work in a bi-partisan manner. However, JRyan getting into the race really hurts Dillard’s chances and could lead to a Brady win. Brady will not fare well against either Quinn or Hynes.
Comment by culatr Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:02 pm
Dillard.
If he gets past the primary, the Obama campaign ad will carry him through the general, i.e. it will make him a “not one of those Republicans” Republican.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:03 pm
“Jim Ryan…His conservative lean appeals to Democrats”
No.It doesn’t. Brian Duggan is still white-hot in the news and has made Nicarico case fresh in peoples’ minds. this would only dog Jim Ryan with democrats, particularly minorities and strong social justice types. The voices/concerns of the latter two would prevail.
Comment by Will County Woman Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:04 pm
JIM RYAN!!!!!!!!!! Clean cut, clean past, integrity, a gentleman
Comment by kitkrazee Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:05 pm
It’s Kirk Dillard.
Illinoisans are tired of the past. Ryan is a part of that past. His freshness date has expired.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:06 pm
Dillard. He seems the very model of the moderate Republican that has enjoyed success in Illinois.
I think the Edgar endorsement was huge for the primary. It gives him separation from the rest of a very large field all over the state.
Also, in the past, I thought he was crazy with the Obama spot and the nice things he said about Lisa M., but maybe he was crazy like a Fox (maybe that’s not right, given the Fox News constituency).
What I mean is, if he can get through the primary, his civility toward those two do may do him well among Dems who might not be enamored with their nominee. If nothing else, it could perhaps tamp down the city and Cook County margin.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:09 pm
Jim Ryan. Enough time has passed that “Blagojevich” has replaced “Ryan” as synonamous with corruption.
Madigan can make deals with him to sell out taxpayers and enrich the same cronies who’ve been feeding at the trough for several decades now, so Madigan would probably have an easier time getting his way with Ryan than Quinn.
Madigan will be the king maker in this election. He’ll tell the majority of voters what to think and for whom to vote, if they want to keep their government jobs or welfare checks comin’.
Comment by PalosParkBob Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:09 pm
Jim Ryan - maybe.
Brady is too conservative. Bob is too liberal to win the primary. McKenna is too despised among the committeemen. What kind of message does it send to Republicans to elect the guy that kissed the ring Obama?
Comment by ship jumper Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:11 pm
–Madigan will be the king maker in this election. He’ll tell the majority of voters what to think and for whom to vote, if they want to keep their government jobs or welfare checks comin’.–
Game over! LOL!
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:13 pm
Dillard. Not right wing enough to turn off swing voters.
His problem will be winning the primary.
Whoever faces Quinn in the general election, unless Hynes pulls an upset, will likely lose.
Demographically this state leans heavily democratic and the GOP hasn’t helped itself by running nutjob candidates the last few election cycles.
Comment by IrishPirate Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:17 pm
Dillard, especially if he can get Edgar to make a lot of ads and go out on the campaign trail with him. Maybe Edgar could offer to be in the Dillard administration in some way.
I really believe Ryan is going to have problems. with his name again. During the Blago trial over the summer, there will be endless press stories about not only Blago but his predecessor Ryan and how they symbolize longtime Illinois corruption and so on. Life is unfair. Ryan needs to get out of the way.
Brady–too far right to attract independents.
I don’t like any of them. May choice, for real change, would be Andrzejewski. The shock would be good for us all. But alas, he’s too young and too unknown. Hope he keeps at it, though.
Comment by cassandra Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:19 pm
Jim Ryan was a good attorney general. But he’s proven himself to be one of the worst campaigners ever.
Dillard is a good Senator, but my observation is that suburban GOP Senators spend more time courting the Chicago media than they do courting voters.
I’d forget about the middle and go with Brady. He energizes his base, and that’s what the 2010 elections will come down to.
P.S. Mark Kirk needs him.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:20 pm
Bill Brady. If he’s too conservative, then why did Dillard say on radio he is a conservative in the style of Bill Brady??
Comment by dome Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:24 pm
Probably Dillard, but he better start a more effective campaign or he will finish third in the primary. Brady appeals to the base of the party, but lack of recognition in Collar counties probably make him unelectable.
Comment by downstate hick Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:25 pm
None.
Dillard’s a generic republican with no ideas or vision. Generic republicans have been crushed.
bob,proft and adam don’t seem to have the standing to run and win state wide.
I had been starting to like brady, then I saw his interview with berkowitz with his unapologetic social conservatism and that won’t fly.
jim ryan. I prefer old school the movie to old school the politician. No.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:26 pm
Brady looks good with his jobs plan, and some other things he has done lately in the interest of reform.
I don’t know much about him other than he is very conservative. Any hope that he can re-invent/re-package himself to move center in the general and convince enough people?
OR
Does he have too much “conservative” baggage that he won’t be able to easily distance himself from in a general race?
Comment by Will County Woman Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:32 pm
Adam Andrzejewski is the candidate who will be able to bring together Right Wing activists, some common sense approaches to government and a sense that he represents something new. Andrzejewski appeals to the Right Wingers, but his bio is traditional Illinois GOP. He made money in business, building his own business from scratch by out-hustling bigger businesses that were already in the game.
Adrzejewski has enough sales and management background that he’s formidable. Rather than being a political creature, Adrzejewski has a skill set he developed while building his business.
Republicans are fooling themselves if they think there’s a large base of people who want to go backwards.
BTW, I think Andrzejewski is wrong on tax policy, but the Democrats know how to beat everybody else on the list.
Every other Republican is easy for the Dems to beat. Use the usual issues to polarize the electorate along party lines and bludgeon the GOP with the Dem voter ID advantage. It’s really that simple.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:36 pm
Kirk Dillard picked out “Individual A” to be on his campaign. Blago trial will be Junish-Augustish assuming no delays. He essentially has an unindicted co-conspirator… and it will sink him. Kjellander may be innocent, but the toxic waters of the trial will make such distinctions irrelevant to the voters. The “never again” coalition will ensure he doesn’t win. It’s already against the headwinds for a Republican in this state without that liability.
Jim Ryan? He brought Stu Levine into politics and has gads of money from him. Same story there. Guilt by association.
Brady’s fundraising problems dissolve in a big way if he wins. There are people who will give to the GOP candidate in a general because he’s the GOP candidate. Will he attract “new money”? Most of the new money has written this state off anyway. But he may have enough to compete. I just don’t see him surviving against Quinn or Hynes, especially if a strong right-of-center third party candidate shows up.
Comment by John Bambenek Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:40 pm
Adam Andrzejewski will be able to bring the party together. He’s fiscally conservative and socially tolerant.
Comment by Northside Blogger Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:46 pm
Dillard, hands down. As others have pointed, Dillard is the heir to the winning formula for the GOP — Thompson-Edgar moderates who work across the aisle when necessary and say no when necessary. Civil, courteous statesmen.
In addition, Dillard’s family history is the history of Illinois. He has personal connections to various corners of the state and its history. His is a compelling story, one tailor-made for a general election.
But yeah, that primary is going to be tough for him. A Kirk-Kirk ticket is a slam-dunk winner in November.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:47 pm
Dillard is the obvious and correct choice. Brady is a great guy but too downstate conservative, McKenna is likeable but too dry, Schillerstrom has too many issues, Proft is well…Proft, AA is too unknown, Jim Ryan will have to answer too many questions about Nicarico, G Ryan, Levine. Dillard has the best experience, temperment and image. He will do very well. I think he wins in this Blue State.
Comment by suburbs Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:49 pm
Bill Brady. If he’s too conservative, then why did Dillard say on radio he is a conservative in the style of Bill Brady?? - dome
because it’s the primary? he has to run right first and compete for it too before he can run center. the point being that Dillard can run center when it becomes necessary, but Brady probably can’t.
Comment by Will County Woman Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 12:59 pm
Keep in mind that this is a very fractured primary. If everybody qualifies for the ballot, that will be seven candidates total. Getting 20% or 25% of the vote just might win the whole thing.
I simply don’t see Proft or Andseiwezkesiasweozled as garnering more than single digit support, despite Adam’s gallant effort to run a strong campaign. Neither of them have the financial resources or name recognition.
That leaves us with McKenna, Brady, Dillard, Schillerstrom, and Ryan. The last three ALL live in DuPage County and will likely eat into each other’s vote tally there. I don’t see Schillerstrom surviving that gauntlet, plus he’s a social liberal. Dillard or Ryan may have a chance if they can raise a boatload of cash and gain votes elsewhere in the state. Dillard has a big head start with his campaign staff, etc. compared to Ryan.
That leaves with Brady and McKenna. Brady has some downstate support, but I don’t think he’s particularly known in the high population areas. I also don’t think he’ll have the campaign cash to pull off any large media blitzes. That leaves us with McKenna. Although some of the party insiders don’t love him, he’ll be able to have large resources from which to blitz the airwaves with ads. He may also be able to pull a hunk of votes out of the north and northwest suburbs.
A lot of this comes down to visibility in the month of November and early December before the holidays.
In the final analysis, the guys who have both the professionalism and financial ability to pull it off are: Dillard, McKenna, Ryan.
Comment by ABCBoy Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:09 pm
Dillard, and I don’t think there is a close second.
His general demeanor of decency softens his generally conservative core, and the Edgar attachment wins him credibility. And, IMO he comes off as a more likable guy than the others.
Comment by Middle of the Road Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:13 pm
eek… if you put Edgar in the same sentence as the self dealing, special interest dealmaker Thompson, then either you out Edgar as an under the table dealmaker, or unfairly smear him. Big Jim Thompson’s pro bono defense of Gov. Ryan will haunt him forever.
I do not believe that Dillard has the chops for a statewide campaign. If all he has is that Jim Edgar likes me, then his wad is blown and Jim Ryan has a better chance to win the primary and general election.
Comment by Plutocrat03 Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:27 pm
The fact that none of the Dillard
stafferscommenters addressed Dillard’s Kjellander problem is telling. They don’t think it’s a problem and don’t realize they’re going to be labeled as running for George Ryan’s Second Term…Comment by John Bambenek Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:28 pm
Kirk Dillard. He was chief of staff to the last successful and popular governor, that’s going to play well and give him the experience card… the good experience card. I think the commercial he did for Barak Obama is going to help him in November as well. It might have made some republicans mad, but they’ll vote for him in November anyway and it makes him look good for the independents.
McKenna is going to be this years Ron Gidwitz. He’ll spend the most money per vote but just won’t play with the non-billionaires. The only difference is that Gidwitz probably would have been a good governor.
Brady is too much like Mike Huckabee, popular, hard to dislike but there is no way you vote for him as Illinois governor.
Ryan - It’s all about the name, doesn’t play in November
Everyone else doesn’t even have a shot in the primary.
Comment by ahoy Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:29 pm
The only two with enough juice are Dillard and Ryan. Between the two it is Dillard; he has the moderate credentials to win over this traditionally blue state.
As previously mentioned, Jim Ryan’s biggest problem in the general would be his campaign. He is an absolutely horrible campaigner and political pragmatist. This is evidenced by the team he is starting to surround himself with already. Dan Curry as his spokesman? Give me a break, DuPage isn’t representative of the state as a whole–not by a long shot. Curry is out of his league and will only magnify Ryan’s weaknesses as a campaigner.
Comment by Obamarama Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:33 pm
None of the above.
Comment by Ela Observer Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:45 pm
Dillard - DUH! - but that is certainly not the best option for the state or the party. If the GOP really wants to advance itself and have a chance to win then Brady or Bob are the best choice.
Comment by Bakersfield Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:45 pm
==Brady is too conservative. Bob is too liberal to win the primary. McKenna is too despised among the committeemen. What kind of message does it send to Republicans to elect the guy that kissed the ring Obama? ==
Brady just comes off as strange and over-the-top in wanting the prestige of having the title of governor in the stump speeches I’ve heard. McKenna will depend on how much he’s improved his likeability factor to the public, needs to show more passion in his speaking, but as for the above critizism of him, the voting public doesn’t give a rats behind what a few far right committeemembers think.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:46 pm
Whoa, where did all this random Dillard support come from??… perhaps his surrogates have found a new hobby.
As for reality, McKenna is the one who could get stuff done… a proven success and widely seen as honest. Lotta people give him slack for not being the most cheerful guy, but why don’t need a cheerleader.. we need someone who
s serious and capable… McKenna is the man.
Comment by wolverine83 Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 1:58 pm
Whoa yourself. McKenna is “proven success”? Could you please explanin?
Comment by Catonian Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:04 pm
McKenna has
1. Held the state party together through its roughest few years in the last 40 years (none of which was his doing, obviously)
2. Shown impressive fundraising numbers throughout his tenure as party chair, despite the climate.
He deserves credit here folks.
Comment by wolverine83 Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:08 pm
None of the above; regardless of who the Dem candidate is they win large again. The incompetence of the IL-GOP astounds me.
Comment by Angry Republican Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:11 pm
I think it’s too early to write McKenna off considering he hasn’t even announced yet… He will be the only one who has the resources and the organization to rise above this pack of candidates.
Comment by fox40 Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:11 pm
===McKenna has
1. Held the state party together through its roughest few years in the last 40 years ===
Sure, if you want to completely ignore the fact that there is a contingent of his own party trying to change the way their committeemen are put into place. Ask Senator Lauzen if he thinks Andy is keeping the party together.
Comment by Obamarama Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:18 pm
McKenna is the only candidate who would cause a massive rapture in the ILGOP, breaking it apart before Nov 2 and ensuring a down ticket slaughter. GOP will probably not gain enough to stop Madigan doing unilateral redistricting, but McKenna winning would make gerrymandering irrelevant.
Comment by John Bambenek Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:20 pm
Based on the results of recent national polling, no socially conservative Republican has much of a chance in a statewide race anywhere outside of the South. “I’m pro-gun, pro-life, anti-gay, and anti-tax” is not going to win an election in Illinois these days. So it would have to be Dillard based on what’s on their campaign websites.
Comment by Lefty Lefty Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:21 pm
Hey Lefty, what does national polling have to do with a strictly Illinois election? Granted that a social conservative is at a serious disadvantage in Illinois, but I’m just sayin…
As far as candidates, that’s tough. Barring the Dems tearing each other apart in the primary, I’m not sure if any GOP candidate can win. Brady’s biggest problem is that he’s been running for 6 years and has raised an average of about $6 per month. McKenna got 6 percent for Senate and will be lucky to pull that this time. The one word that describes him is “lackluster.” Or is that two words? I guess that leaves Dillard. Sheesh.
Yes, I know I left out Andre-WHO?
Comment by HoosierDaddy Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:32 pm
==McKenna has
1. Held the state party together through its roughest few years in the last 40 years (none of which was his doing, obviously)
2. Shown impressive fundraising numbers throughout his tenure as party chair, despite the climate.
He deserves credit here folks. ==
All of which has jack to do with winning the big one in November
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:39 pm
McKenna’s area-our neck of the woods is now blue as can be.
Does anyone have the link to the video of the debate at the city club this morning?
Comment by shore Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:40 pm
===I can see you your IP address.===
Go away, moron.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:50 pm
The fact that its 5 days to petition filing and McKenna hasn’t announced. When does he plan to do it? The day he files petition objections to knock everyone else off the ballot?
Comment by John Bambenek Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:51 pm
McKenna - he’s an outsider who’s not afraid to make tough decisions which is definitely what this State needs now.
Comment by Southern Illinois Voter Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:51 pm
I’ve deleted and banned a couple of people who were posting under multiple names with the same IP address. Stupid move. Banned for life.
I’ve also deleted some folks for straying from the question. Stick to the issue here, people. Thanks.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 2:58 pm
I’m really impressed with Dillard’s resume. It reflects more statewide potential. As someone who considers himself an Independent, I’m more interested in him than someone like McKenna-who strikes me as being the Paris Hilton of Illinois politics. Rich, attractive, but shy of accomplishments.
Comment by Jobe Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:05 pm
To clarify, my reference to “national polling” regards the fact that, although there is an “excitement drain” from Democrats and independents regarding Obama and voting Democratic, when broken down regionally there is a huge skew caused by the opinions of Southern voters. The Republican base will not win an election outside of the South or nationally under the current circumstances.
Comment by Lefty Lefty Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:11 pm
Schillerstrom- he is the only moderate in Republican race. The other candidates fight with one another to prove have anti-abortion and pro-concealed carry they are. He also is the most prepared to actually govern successfully.
Comment by MC Cole Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:13 pm
bambenek..
kjellander is not on Dillard’s team - paid or unpaid. the question was publicly asked by bernie schoenberg and answered by Dillard in springield. quit spreading lies.
dillard is the best chance.
ryan would have been a decent choice but stu levine is an anchor around his neck.
brady called for the elimination of FOID cards at the UIS debate. not sure that suburban voters really want that type of candidate. dems would have a field day.
mckenna…money might buy you love but not elections in illinois.
Comment by 4 percent Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:18 pm
I’d go with Dillard, he’ll have the most pull outside of the Republican party, and the GOP is desperate to win, this go round so they’ll pull around him when push comes to shove should he pull out the primary.
Anyone who thinks that the Ryan name has lost the stink associated with it probably should think again.
Comment by Baines 4 Prez Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:18 pm
==Sure, if you want to completely ignore the fact that there is a contingent of his own party trying to change the way their committeemen are put into place. Ask Senator Lauzen if he thinks Andy is keeping the party together. ==
That “contingent” was not as a result of McKenna, it was around before he took over. It’s also not that significant of a group in terms of number and actual voting power. If it was they would’ve accomplished their goal at the convention instead of getting shot down overwhelmingly.
McKenna has his obvious shortcomings, but nobody should write his chances off because a handful of insiders don’t like him. It’s about who the general voting population wants, not inside baseball geeks like many of us on here (myself included).
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:23 pm
I heard Governor Edgar say on the news that we need to find the candidate that will not only win in the primary, but in the General as well. He said if you win the primary, but get blown out of the water in th general, what good did that do for our (GOP) party.
I like Brady, but only enough for him to remain as my state senator.
Dillard has the conservative voting record but he does have the right know-how to work with both sides. I’m sure many will rebut my entry with Obama commercial entries and go ahead. But my question to you is, why wouldn’t we admire someone who works with both sides of the isle? Single party rule doesn’t work–and it certainly doesn’t work in Illinois.
We need to break away from the old, failed leadership who is only interested in partisanship and nominate a candidate who will listen to both sides and take the best ideas to clean up Illinois both ethically and financially.
Dillard said that anytime a Democrat is willing to reach across the isle to work on a Republican issue like ethics, he will commend them. He stayed true to his word and honored his committment but also fought hard to get John McCain elected.
I truly fear what our state will turn into if our party continues this stubborn attitude. As a mother of four, I’m ashamed that people can’t see what is best for the future of Illinois which is to elect a governor who can work with all parties.
Comment by Republican Mom Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:33 pm
Jim Ryan has the best chance for the GOP to win in 2010 and his polls already show that. Jim already has the name ID needed statewide, has an existing organization, and has the integrity to bring Illinois back.
Jim Ryan has already been in 3 statewide elections, and he should be in the middle of his second term as Governor. The voters of Illinois will understand that Blago was a crook and should have never been put in office.
Comment by scoot Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:37 pm
where is the video from this morning? cantv.org has not posted yet.
Also for tomorrow, Rich, my bud, congressman Kirk doesn’t have republican on any of his stuff either than in some media clips. Nowhere on his front website page. Dissapointing to see the hide and go seek.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:44 pm
Dilliard- because of his support for President Obama and his kind words directed toward Lisa Madigan.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:50 pm
Unless some unexpected fact comes to light, Dillard is the only candidate who can beat Quinn. He will have to work very hard to come out of the primary unscathed, and can do so.
Illinois now consistently polls as a center-left voting population. Conservatives in such a situation are best served by carefully picking their races. If they want to actually win significant additional influence over time, they should concentrate on electing legislators and local officials in territories where conservative positions are popular, and target an occasional down-ballot race where a conservative can squeeze through. For instance, even liberal voters might go along with the occasional conservative candidate for Comptroller or Treasurer. After a few cycles of success, conservatives can justifiably contest for top-ballot races, because they will have elected statewides and infrastructure to adequately support campaigns.
Bob is a fine gentleman, but is receiving no discernable support from suburban moderates. This, despite many years of service on the local scene. He will have a very difficult time cornering support from his natural donors and voters, including those who are angry with the increased taxes in DuPage. I think he will preserve his options to run in a future race by pulling-out early.
Proft and Adrzejewski are thoughtful people who are not given serious chances to win the primary, but will not be politically damaged by low single-digit primary finishes. They will stay in, even though they may knowingly spoil Brady’s chances.
McKenna is not an “earned media candidate”, so he wins the primary only if he runs a paid-media campaign, spends big and early, and goes harshly negative on Dillard and Brady. If his history as party chairman is taken into account, he will not do this. He never wrote the big personal checks, was never able to develop a media image, and reserved his hard-core attacks for inside intra-party matters. He never was able to effectively go negative on Democratic office holders, so I doubt he will have the stomach to do it now that attacks would be scrutinized and responded-to. If he does go heavily negative, he is damaged in the General. And, let’s face it – Illinois voters have not gone for a statewide self-funder since Charles Percy. I think he comes in third in the primary. Quinn wins the General over McKenna for the same reasons detailed above.
That leaves Brady and Dillard.
Dillard has the advantage on his paid and earned media capability. He is warm, “makes sense” to uninformed voters, and has the right mix of policy positions to appeal broadly. The media already likes him. Brady got pretty bad reviews on the paid and earned media efforts he made in his last statewide race. He is not a “wooden candidate”, but does suffer from a hint of “Romney stiffness”. Between these two, Dillard has the fund raising advantage (don’t think I need to explain that). Finally, to the extent local party people and structures count this time –- and they just might in a crowded primary race — Dillard is already popular with and accepted by them. I presume that Jack Roeser-affiliated groups will oppose Brady again, which will probably steal a point or two from Brady in the primary. In the General Dillard is a real threat to either Quinn or Hines. He will have the dollars, media interest and party activists. Brady is thrashed in the general due to the unpopularity of some of his conservative views in this purple state, inability to compete for dollars with a sitting governor, and media “stiffness”.
Comment by Chad Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:57 pm
i’m going to say Schillerstrom. He has a bit more going for him than just to say he’s got governmental executive experience. Especially the fact that he runs the state’s 2nd largest county.
Comment by Levois Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 3:58 pm
Brady is the only guy I think gives the Republicans any chance at all. Out of the guys I think have a realistic chance of winning the primary - Dillard, Brady or Jim Ryan - Brady’s the only one that represents something different from what we’ve seen in this state for the last several decades.
Dillard is the typical “combine” (I hate that term but it’s the only descriptive I can think of here) -type of candidate that would do whatever he thought was necessary to win … regardless of what it did to the party down the road (read “increase taxes”), and Stu Levine would absolutely devastate Jim Ryan and the Republican Party in the fall. Blago corruption instantly off the table as an issue.
Voters want a fresh start, and Brady will make himself the candidate of jobs, anti-corruption and optimism this fall while the voters are looking for “anybody-but-more-of-the-same.”
Virginia is the perfect example of how voters swing from election to election, and how a Republican much further to the right than Brady is looking like the winner in that state that went for Obama a year ago. They repackaged that candidate to talk about what voters care about, and the voters are responding.
The same can happen here, and Democrats can try to demonize their Republican opposition this fall as too conservative at their own peril. That’s not what voters are looking for from them either. They’ve tried and failed - miserably so. Voters are looking for something new, and Brady is the only viable candidate on either side that fits the bill.
Comment by Ready to Win Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:07 pm
Ryan, alone among Republican candidates, has been in favor of an income tax hike. In the general election, that gives him more credibility than the no-new tax pledgers.
I see Dillard more in the Thompson mold than like Edgar. He’ll tell people what they want to hear on taxes and then cut a deal to raise taxes after the election.
Comment by Reformer Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:12 pm
== A Kirk-Kirk ticket is a slam-dunk winner in November. ==
I think Republicans are much better off with a Conservative-Moderate ticket than two big moderates.
== [Jim] Ryan’s weaknesses as a campaigner. ==
To wit: A close friend on Ryan’s 2002 staff told me that in the 8 years he’d been AG, he had visited fewer than half of the counties in Illinois. Most of the campaign was eaten up just introducing him to half the state.
Ryan’s been out-of-office for nearly a decade now, and he would have to be reintroduced to the entire state all over again.
Granted, his integrity is pretty much beyond question, and no Democrat is going to point the finger at him over George Ryan again with Rod’s ghost lurking about. But what else does he bring to the table? Not much.
Other than a strong Brady-Kirk alliance, the GOP’s only hope is a total Democratic meltdown. It COULD happen, but my bet is that with remap around the corner, Madigan won’t let it happen.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:12 pm
To “Ready to Win”: Virginia has consistently voted center-right, unlike center-left Illinois (at least for the past several cycles). I don’t think we can rely on that ping-pong effect in Illinois. I understand your “combine” comment, but I think that is still inside baseball the voters don’t understand. I still go with Dillard, because I think less-idealistic Illinois voters will prefer someone who can “get things done”, as opposed to voters wanting “something new”.
Comment by Chad Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:17 pm
==let’s face it – Illinois voters have not gone for a statewide self-funder since Charles Percy==
You mean besides Peter Fitzgerald? Jack Ryan also heavily self-funded and made it through the primary and would’ve given Obama a race in the general if not for, well, we all know
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:18 pm
Anon: I thought Fitzgerald received significant donor support — but perhaps I don’t remember correctly. I didn’t even think of Jack Ryan because, well, you know.
Comment by Chad Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:27 pm
I’m not crazy about Dillard, but I think Edgar will carry the day for him in a fractured field. I’d be more enthused about him if I thought he had Edgar’s spine (remember “Governor No”?). I think Kirk will have good name recognition and marginally lead or hold his own in Cook and the collars but rack up huge wins because of Edgar downstate.
I like and respect Jim Ryan, but I will be sad if he gets in this race. He was never a great campaigner, and Nicarico, Stu Levine, and his last name will all be significant obstacles for him. He’s also not had to run without holding statewide office, having a sizeable warchest, or significant staff for many years. You can’t just turn the light switch on again.
Comment by LincolnLounger Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:46 pm
Peter threw a very large amount of his own money into the race in 1998. I’m not sure what percentage, but know I remember it was a lot. Remember, the party threw its weight behind Lolita in the primary, not Fitzgerald.
In relation to McKenna, I’m sure he’ll put some of his own money into the race, but I’d imagine with his connections he’ll have a good amount slated to be backing him outside of his own pocket. Either way he should have enough to make a push if he puts up a better front than in 2004.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:46 pm
Anon: I’ve been a close observer of McKenna, and like his style as a behind-the-scenes party activist and supporter. But outside a very small collection of monied friends, he was just not able to form basic friendships with most political people. That is why I think he only wins the primary with a massive paid and negative media campaign. I’m talking along the lines of what Blago did to Topinka (tons of negative alongside tons of “warm-fuzzy”). I guess we will see if he and his friends will make the spend.
Comment by Chad Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 5:00 pm
Chad,
The “combine” comment was more the image Dillard invokes rather than the actual term itself… a political wheeler-dealer in an era of anti-insider.
Dillard is the definition of an insider, and that will be abundantly clear the longer he runs. Further, the formula of picking the Republican most likely to be mistake for a Democrat in Illinois is a proven failed strategy.
Everyone points to Edgar, but Edgar didn’t win because he was a moderate. He won because he was already Secretary of State and never had to go through a real primary without the benefit of having already held statewide office.
Topinka proved that there’s a lot more to it than whether the nominee is moderate or conservative.
Comment by Ready to Win Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 5:01 pm
I am late to this - busy day. Dillard seems the most likely to succeed in the primary. I have been on record stating I am not big on DuPage pols but I have to change that for Dillard. Thoughful and competent, Edgar’s boost helps alot.
Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 5:01 pm
RTW: Good comments on the “combine” issue that I do not dispute. While the “insider” issue is important to some columnists and party activists, I just don’t think it impacts sufficiently on voters, and will not hurt Dillard. As for Edgar, my view is that the typical voter thinks of him as a somewhat conservative person, with moderate views in certain areas (I’m sure that must disturb some core conservatives). That would seem to bolster your support for a conservative candidate this year. Too bad for Brady that Edgar did not endorse Brady — the endorsement gave the impression of a conservative endorsement to Dillard.
Comment by Chad Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 5:14 pm
Dillard will win the nomination,Ryan will be second and Brady will be third. Dillard has the Chicago backing with Edgar’s endorsement. Ryan is more organized than Brady…end of story
Comment by ironman Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 5:46 pm
So Brady is too conservative to win but all the other candidates are primarily the same on all the issues except that Brady is a down state candidate so he isn’t seen as part of the Chicago machine by voters and is also a business person and jobs will be the number one issue in the general election.
The other most written comment above is that Brady can’t win state wide but none and I will repeat none of the other candidate’s have be indorsed by any of the Cook county Townships but Brady and Brady came in second in the Cook county Straw poll by 12 votes only behind Dillard. So maybe the reality is that none of the other candidates can win state wide.
Comment by Dnstateanon Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 9:27 pm
None of the above. I am most impressed by Jim Ryan. When I was President of the Neighborhood Umbrella Group, we had a problem with toxic waste on a neighborhood site and Jim Ryan and his people handled it as well as any government group I’ve ever dealt with, but he got blasted by Blago and he is past history.
McKenna has proven he is nothing politically.
Brady is too conservative, I don’t know enough about Dillard to give a real view, but considering how closely I follow the politics, that is not a recommendation.
Unfortunately, it looks like a Democratic year. While I don’t subscribe to either party, the Democrats have totally bungled things and this state needs a serious counter balance to Madigan and Cullerton who are not going anywhere.
Comment by Avy Meyers Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 9:57 pm
Proft — he’s the only one that realizes the dirty, rotten, corrupt combine-infested system has to be smashed.
Comment by XNoneOfTheAbove Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 10:00 pm
Dillard. He’s my 3rd or 4th choice on the ballot, but I’ll admit that he gives us our best chance to win in the general. His resume (as far as experience goes) is strong, and he’s likeable enough to win. I’d rather have a true conservative like Brady, but I can live with Dillard over either of the democrat candidates.
I think if Dillard can latch on with Jason Plummer as his LG candidate, it will help him in southern IL, and it will bring $$ to the table.
Comment by downstate conservative Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 10:07 pm
Dillard is my choice.
Comment by Johny Lycho Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 10:24 pm
Didn’t finish my thoughts. Dillard is my choice because he’s the one who can win.
Comment by Johny Lycho Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 10:25 pm
Dillard. More just because he’s marginally less baggage crippled than the rest. Brady, McKenna, Schillerstrom and Proft, all laughable.
Adam doesn’t really have baggage, but he also has no relevant experience. Not a bad guy, but definitely running for the wrong office.
Comment by just sayin' Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 10:29 pm
Dillard probably has the best shot of winning, even though I’m leaning toward Brady for my vote. I don’t think any more Governor candidates should team up with Lt. Governor candidates (besides McKenna/Murphy). Besides, should a young guy in his 20’s be next in line for Governor? No offense to Plummer, but I’m not going to pull the lever for him.
Comment by Fred Reed Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 11:31 pm
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 4:12 pm:
== [Jim] Ryan’s weaknesses as a campaigner. ==
To wit: A close friend on Ryan’s 2002 staff told me that in the 8 years he’d been AG, he had visited fewer than half of the counties in Illinois. Most of the campaign was eaten up just introducing him to half the state.
Me here: and when they take him back around the state again, those of us offended by the Nicarico case and his role in it will be there to remind those local voters of this. Not the image he will want in front of the T.V. cameras.
Ryan’s been out-of-office for nearly a decade now, and he would have to be reintroduced to the entire state all over again.
me here: and when he is reintroduced, will he apologize for his handling of the Nicarico case? Might help win him a few votes, and could potentially provide him with a good campaign slogan (”Jim Ryan: the only candidate willing to apologize for his mistakes”).
Granted, his integrity is pretty much beyond question, and no Democrat is going to point the finger at him over George Ryan again with Rod’s ghost lurking about. But what else does he bring to the table? Not much.
me here: a prosecutor who works as hard as Ryan did to send an innocent man to Death Row has little to no integrity. He also cannot run as a fiscal conservative, given the costs of the Nicarico trials and the amounts spent to imprison two innocent men, and the amounts paid to settle the civil suits arising out of this.
Jim Ryan may be a good man personally, but he is unfit to be governor of this state.
XNoneOfTheAbove - Wednesday, Oct 21, 09 @ 10:00 pm:
Proft — he’s the only one that realizes the dirty, rotten, corrupt combine-infested system has to be smashed.
me here: and how do you explain all of his contracts with the Village of Cicero? A man who has milked those taxpayers for almost $300,000 is taking classes from Blago on rotten and dirty.
Comment by Lynn S Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:25 am