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Question of the day

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Illinois

* Which Democratic candidate for governor will have the best shot at winning next November? Explain.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:30 am

Comments

I’ll give it to Quinn. He’s already the incumbent and he has that advantage even if he hadn’t a lot of time to really prove himself. I’m not sure this is Hynes’ time yet and unfortunately he isn’t going to run for another executive position in state government and by all accounts he didn’t want to be comptroller anymore.

Comment by Levois Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:36 am
Personally, I think Pat Quinn has the best chance of winning this election. The state is much better off than it was 9 months ago, and Gov Quinn has brought some professionalism and decency back to the office. Overall, he is honest and overall a regular and decent man and many times in elections that is the key to victory.

Comment by ChuckR Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:37 am
I think it’s Hynes. Quinn brings a lot of baggage fair or not (Blago, tax increase, unbalanced budget, in-effective executive). Hyes can paint himself as the fiscal conservative policy wonk that can get us out of this mess. I don’t think he gets out of the primary.

Comment by ahoy Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:39 am
If the public truly realized how incompetent Quinns managers & Director’s are, he wouldn’t stand a chance…. the lack of professionalism and cost-effective management in his administration is astounding. Can Hynes bring that to people’s attention? I’m not so sure.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:44 am
In my opinion Quinn is a lock for the nomination. He will do nothing dramatic until February. In the general election he may be very vulnerable if the budget mess is not solved or solved with a large tax increase. It will be an interesting year to say the least.

Comment by downstate hick Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:44 am
I didn’t ask who would win the primary. I asked who has the best shot of winning the general. Stick to the question, please.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:46 am
I like both Quinn and Hynes personally. The problem for Quinn in November is that each passing day we are closer to fiscal insolvency. He’s managed to stay one step ahead of disaster so far, but time is working against him. At some point, it will be hard to make payroll and there are no more rabbits to be pulled from the hat.

Hynes offers the closest thing we have to a clean break with the past, despite the fact that he’s been a statewide office holder since 1998. He was out front for the rainy day fund (it’s a hurricane now folks), he was a critic of the former governor, and he represents a new generation of Democratic leadership (insert nepotism joke here).

I think it will be harder for the GOP to tag Hynes with the Blagojevich stuff than Quinn, and the trial will be on everyone’s mind. For that reason, I’ll give Hynes the edge in November.

I’ll vote for either though, enthusiastically. And yes, my opinion is horribly partisan.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:48 am
Quinn.

Comes across as what he is–a regular guy. Decent, honest.

Long track record in state as independent and ethical. Matches need of the moment in the cesspool of state and local government.

Gets benefit of the doubt after succeeding Blago. Has comported himself well externally (to the public) even as he’s created opportunities for insiders to shoot at him (flip-flops).

Benefits of incumbency and his indefatigable style help, as well as Hynes’s milk toast personality. Hynes is nice, decent, honorable public servant but doesn’t match Quinn’s flair for the common man.

Comment by Dem observer Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:49 am
Gov. Quinn. His practical approach is the only solution to the state’s budget mess.

Comment by ChicagoGuy Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 11:56 am
Hynes, although he’s no real catch either. Quinn’s just too tied to Blago and the current fiscal mess. Hynes won’t escape it altogether, but it would be easier for him than it will be for Quinn. Doubt it happens, though.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:04 pm
quinn. 2 career politicians, at root you still get the sense quinn has earned what he’s gotten and is at least passionate about what he does. Watching Hynes reminds me of Al Gore in 2000, you’re not sure if he really wants to be there and if this is all being forced on him.

Not a great sign for the party that the best they could come up with was this. Perhaps in 2014 Arne Duncan will be recalled from d.c. to run.

Comment by shore Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:06 pm
Here’s a theory that could be tested with polling.

I suspect older anti-establishment voters remember Quinn’s days of annoying the political establishment. This gives him some cred with these voters.

I suspect younger voters think of Quinn as being Blago’s low-profile Lt. Gov. These voters are more likely to see Hynes as challenging the status quo. So Hynes will be able to sell himself as something “new” to people who don’t primarily think of him as Tom Hynes’ son.

I don’t think there’s a big difference between how Quinn and Hynes will perform in the general. Quinn has more passion and is more prone to gaffes. Hynes can run without “owning” the current set of problems. However, Quinn can do some of this by blaming Blago.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:07 pm
Hynes. Record of integrity which will help him stand at a distance from the Blago era.

Comment by Quad Cities Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:15 pm
No way Quinn can win the general election. He might escape his balgo problem in the primarty but the republicans won’t let him get away with it in the general election. Not to mention I don’t think that proposing a 50% tax increase on the middle class will help him either. I think Hynes has a much better chance.

Comment by Suburban Dem. Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:15 pm
Hynes. A little dose of reality here, Quinn spent six years as Blago’s number two, people don’t forget that. He’ll say, and I’m sure some on this blog will do it for him, that he was never close to the gov and has been the state’s watchdog when it comes to ethics. Some watchdog.

Comment by 47th ward Dem Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:16 pm
Pat Quinn. (I’m getting excited that the question tomorrow might be which Green Party candidate for Governor has the best chance of winning in November?)

Comment by Squideshi Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:24 pm
Hynes for reasons that ahoy stated above.

I actually think Jack Franks would have been positioned better than either to win in Nov. Oh well…..

Comment by Bardo2 Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:25 pm
I lean Hynes but think Quinn would do well as well. (or I could lean Quinn but think Heinz will ketchup /rimshot).

This is in part because I dont think the GOP have staged a strong canidate presence in the state or have an identifiable message. I think Quinns message that onlyfamilies that earn 60k or less a year are working families does him damage against a GOP canidate from all those middle class independents who earn more then 60k a household. I think Hynes scores point in a general against the GOP canidate by staking his definition for working and middle class families as households under 200k. But overall the GOP message of Brady ultraconservative or Dillards return to the camleot years of edgar just have no resonance or meat in a primary.

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:28 pm
By primary I ment general )

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:28 pm
Notice, CaptFax did not limit to anounced candidates.
Not too late to pass the petitions
I believe Burris can win in November for governor
Especially if we can coax jimRYAN to enter …..please, please, please.
Just think BlueFieldBon will float in ChamBana, Landfill Roger Keats will be on the loose in Cook County….I think it is adding up for Roland to launch!

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:28 pm
Bardo-

Re: Franks.

May I please have whatever it is you’re smoking?

Thanks.

Comment by Spitting Out My Coffee Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:36 pm
Hynes has no chance in the general. If he gets through the primary it won’t be without Burr Oak being hung around his neck. He won’t be able to get his base behind in for the general.

Much more importantly though, what has Dan Hynes shown in his Senate campaign or thus far running for Governor that he can actually connect with voters?

He is only running for Governor b/c he couldn’t run for AG. He has said publicly that his heart wasn’t into his Senate race. Really? You wanted to represent the people of Illinois but your didn’t really want to? I’ve seen no indication that he his heart is in this race either.

The only rationale for the campaign is that he has $3 million bucks in the bank and thought Quinn was weak candidate. Turns out he isn’t.

Finally, Hynes’ campaign team is in over their heads. Quinn’s campaign is running circles around them.

Comment by Tipper10 Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:38 pm
=== He is only running for Governor b/c he couldn’t run for AG. ====

How many GOP folks held of deciding their race until they found out what the AG was doing?

LMad the the 800 pound political gorrila in IL. No reasonable politician, from either party, wants to fight her in an election.

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:42 pm
Much more importantly though, what has Dan Hynes shown in his Senate campaign or thus far running for Governor that he can actually connect with voters?

The letter “D.”

Comment by T.J. Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:46 pm
To answer the question - Hynes, hands down.

Number 1 - Hynes doesn’t own the budget either in whole or in part. Quinn does, at least in part, whether he likes it or not. That said, I’m not too sure many people vote on the budget. What they do vote on is…

Number 2 - Quinn will wear Blago like a drape for the next 10 months if he makes it through the primary. My wife recently commented to me that the only things she remembers about Judy Baar were pictures with/dancing with George Ryan, nothing else. I think we’ll see more than a few ads with Quinn either defending or standing next to Blags.

Comment by Spitting Out My Coffee Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 12:48 pm
Quinn — Hynes does not ignite a crowd and is vulnerable on the job he has done as comptroller. Hynes’ ttempts to portray the Gov as being close to Blago are not credible. (It is well known that the two men did not speak for over a year and they never enjoyed a close relationship.) Their bad relationship is well known. As for the Franks comment. I, too, would like to know what that poster is smoking. Then again, Franks is known to post here often.

Comment by anon Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:08 pm
LOL. You people in favor of Quinn MUST be republican. I found this web site courtesy of our good republican friends.

http://www.friendsofblago.com/int-quinn.htm

Like I suggested yesterday, Hynes’ would come to a general with clean hands, quinn would not. I trust our good republican friends are digging for dirt on hynes. sorry guys, but he’s clean. Additionally quinn’s lack of accomplishment as governor doesn’t bode well for him.

if he were a football team he’d be 1 and 9, or something horrible like that coming out of a primary.

-fumbled reform (opposition scored)
delay game penalty on the budget then while trying to drive, he
-fumbled the budget (opposition scored)
-missed field goal on U of I trustees (opposition scored)
-threw an interception by reportedly doing A LOT of political hiring during the state’s worst fiscal crisis (oppositon poised to score)

I agree with 47th ward that there is no time for quinn to even break even at 5 and 5 by primary time. if he wins the primary he comes out bloodied and very badly scarred, rightfully so because he’s made a lot of costly mistakes/penalities, which Hynes is right to mention.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:09 pm
Hynes. He is milk-toast, but Quinn has been ineffective and disappointing, not to mention I agree with T.J. - he will wear Blago like a curse. Fumigate!

Comment by I HATE ILLINOIS Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:12 pm
It’s murky, but I’ll say Hynes.

He’ll be able to distance himself from next year’s budget disaster while Quinn will be up to it to his elbows.

And fair or not, a lot of voters think of a guv and louie guv as a team, like the pres and vice pres. I doubt if Quinn will be able to explain that away.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:18 pm
I’m not so sure Quinn will suffer from the Blago trial. That’s the conventional wisdom, but I could envision an approach where he uses it as a backdrop to hihglight an emphasis on honesty, transparency, and so on. He does have some creds in that area. It could work.

Before any of these guys proceed, they should read the NYT’s magazine piece now up on Jon Corzine’s run for re-election and the travails of governing New Jersey, which has numerous similarities to Illinois. You have to wonder
why they’d want the job.

Comment by cassandra Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:21 pm
I’d have to give Hynes the edge in a General Election matchup. Don’t know who’s going to be the Democratic nominee, but I’d say Quinn would be an easy target for the Republicans for the following reasons:

1) The 50% tax increase - you can’t sell that to voters.

2) Blagojevich - Quinn and Blago may not have been close, but Quinn was his running mate and he didn’t exactly speak up about Blago’s antics until it was politically convenient to do so. If I recall, during the 06 campaign, Quinn was asked about Blago and his response was something to the effect that Blago did everything honestly and ethically. That alone will be a huge advantage to the GOP.

3) The budget - As has been noted above, Quinn is on thin ice. He’s currently got an out of whack budget, and there isn’t any revenue to cover the bills that are coming. If he has to start closing more offices and misses payroll, he’s toast.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:21 pm
FTR, if you want to properly insult someone, please use the proper term:

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/milquetoast

Carry on.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:24 pm
In quinn’s current ad, attacking Hynes, doesn’t quinn refer to himself as a man of “honesty” and “integrity” at the end?

Interesting…as the republicans note quinn is quoted in 2006 as saying of Blago:

“He’s always been a person who’s honest and one of integrity…I have confidence the governor does the right thing all the time.”

Do you guys remember how the republicans who spent years vilifying hillary clinton all of sudden began singing her praises in 2008, in the hopes that she would win the primary? Why. they knew that they could beat her, but did not expect the young-up-and-comer Obama to do as well as he did. Obama wrote a tell-all book about himself, which left the republicans with no dirt—no way to dirty him up. I write all of this to suggest that if you are truly a partisan democrat, you’d better support Hynes because he is the only democrat who can win the governor’s race in 2010.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:25 pm
Hynes- Quinn lets Illinois problems go to the court system where they are resolved there and not by him. what kind of leadership is that???
I am tired of being embarassed by all the corruption in the state of Illinois. Quinn saying he did not speak to Blago is why he should not be considered in the same sentence as him is nothing but an excuse! Some watchdog he was as Lt governor! What kind of watchdog will he be as governor?

Comment by 47th ward Dem Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:26 pm
Quinn, he’s the incumbant. Hynes is meek, he does not seem to have the strong personality it takes. Also he is rarely seen outside of media events, Springfield (Capital) etc.
Quinn has always had himself out there, he shows up at every event he could, whether it’s passing out Turkeys on the South Side to whatever.

Comment by Third Generation Chicago Native Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:27 pm
Whether intentional or not, Madigan’s strategy of NOT passing a Democratic Balanced Budget (with increased taxes) last Spring, but instead requiring GOP votes for an chimerical budget compromise, has set up either Quinn or Hynes for a loss in November.

No politician ever wants to campaign, as Walter Mondale did in 1984, with his tax increase proposal as the center piece of his campaign message. It’s nearly always a sure loser. The proper sequence of events is to pass the tax increase as far away from election day as possible, and then campaign on the benefits during the election period..AKA Jim Thompson.

In 1990, extending an already existing surtax was a winner, while Netsch lost big in the 1994 campaign promoting a future “42% tax increase.”

Madigan and the democrats have one more chance in January. If increasing taxes remains the issue next fall, Hynes is the stronger, but still losing candidate. If Quinn and the legislature pass a budget that takes increasing future taxes off the table, then Quinn would be the stronger candidate and could win next fall.

Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:29 pm
Hynes is the only chance the Dems have for several reasons stated above: fiscal watchdog, tax plan that protects the middle class, Blago critic, and last — but by no means least — he was not Rod Blagojevich’s running mate.

Can you imagine the ads Republican X will run against Quinn (’Rod Blagojevich ran our state into the ditch while lining his own pockets and now his running mate Pat Quinn wants to take over so he can increase your taxes?!?!, etc., etc. etc.)

Anon 1:08, you are kidding yourself to think that people think there is any daylight between Quinn and Blago. If they do, just wait until those ads start. Quinn will be dead in the water by June (maybe April). Hynes is the ONLY chance for the Dems.

Comment by Rubbernecker Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:32 pm
Hynes. Quinn is too tainted just for having been governor after Blago, even though he was never a fan. That said, I think Quinn is going to win the primary because its early this year, not enough time to unseat a sitting governor in their own primary.

Comment by SweetSteph Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:37 pm
Both Quinn & Hynes could win the governor’s mansion, particularly if the GOP manages to foot-bullet itself with such a divided primary field. Quinn has the better shot though, by nature of incumbency, and given that he has not destroyed himself politically to this point (which was certainly a possibility since the time he took the job).

Comment by Baines 4 Prez Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:43 pm
Hynes. Quinn has been very wishy washy as governor and will carry some Blago baggage and will have to support a large tax increase before Nov. 2010 (as any realistic Republican would too). Hynes can run as the more fiscally conservative candidate, which might be more effective against the GOP nominee in the general. On the other hand, Hynes ain’t much of a campaigner.

Comment by LouisXIV Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 1:51 pm
“Anon 1:08, you are kidding yourself to think that people think there is any daylight between Quinn and Blago. If they do, just wait until those ads start. Quinn will be dead in the water by June (maybe April). Hynes is the ONLY chance for the Dems.”

Who is going to run those ads? You really think any Republican will be able to go up on the air in June? Check out their fundraising totals.

What two words do you think that average voters associate with Pat Quinn? Honesty and reform. If the Republicans want to try to hit Quinn on honesty they are walking into a trap.

Comment by Tipper10 Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:17 pm
Hynes, Quinn has too many negatives.

Comment by Stones Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:22 pm
The new Rasmussen poll Rich just posted doesn’t bode well for Quinn’s chances in a general election. 53% disapproval isn’t a good thing and there doesn’t appear to be anything he can do to change those numbers. I’d bet they’ll get worse as things progress with the state’s financial mess.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:42 pm
“What two words do you think that average voters associate with Pat Quinn?”

Ineffectual and unaccomplished

Jello and flip-flopper

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:49 pm
Beat shot of winning the general: Pat Quinn

He has the next 12 months of incumbancy to make his case whilst the wanna bes stand on the sidelines and hope he fails…reminds me of the national GOP and their feelings for Obama…

Comment by Anonymous45 Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:51 pm
make that best shot

Comment by Anonymous45 Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:52 pm
Bottom line Hynes cannot win. He is as plain as oatmeal. The only man in this race who can win this election is Quinn. The man knows how to relate to people. He is the only candidate in the entire race who has real, logical, and rational plans to fix our problems. It is very easy to lob spitballs from the comptrollers office, while it is much harder to attempt to solve problems. Quinn is the only Dem who can win.

Comment by 32ndCliff Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:32 pm
I respect Dan Hynes, but he’s too flat on the stump. Quinn was inspiring and direct at his announcement today, and only a charismatic candidate can win in a tough election yer.

Comment by EBC Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:39 pm
Second gubernatorial election in a row that I am very unhappy with my choices. Bring back Tim Neukirk!

Comment by Just wondering Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 4:03 pm
Quinn. There is no way easy way out of this mess and Quinn’s background as a reformer will help him as voters get to know his story. People identify with him and like him personally. Plus, his plan is actually realistic. As you pointed out the other day Rich, there is no way to “cut” your way out of this mess and he actually has a plan that doesn’t pass the buck or offer a rehash of old talking points. His history as a reformer and consumer advocate will only help him. Plus the GOP crowd will beat themselves into a bloody pulp to try to win the primary and no one has any clue who they are anyway.

Comment by Sweet Lou Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 4:24 pm
some, ver few, of you I do believe are actual quinn supporters, and not just republicans trying to play games. interesting how quinn supporters still don’t dare focus on or talk about his actual conduct/behavior/performance as governor, which is all that really matters.

we’re still getting the “he drives the same car that he’s had since 1978, so see how honest he is,” types of living in the past argument.

not a whole lot of substance, is there quinn supporters?

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 4:57 pm
It’s laughable that Will County Woman criticizes a policy wonk like Pat Quinn as lacking substance when Dan Hynes is such a total cipher. Hilarious!

Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 10:46 pm
I am sure that ALL of the republican candidates are absolutely drooling over Quinn becoming the nominee. He can be tied to Blago as even calling him an “honest, decent man” until that became unfashionable. Yes, he was loud when the feds arrested Blago, but not while the clouds were swirling toward him. Then the budget mess. What improved by Blago being kicked out?
Hynes is the fresh face who can distance himself from Blago with credibility. He has a well-deserved reputation of integrity and in a “Blue State” can beat any of the republicans.
I am not sure if anyone can beat that political juggernaut- Rich Whitney! He will easily get 85% of the vote in the general election!

Comment by Richard Afflis Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 10:53 pm
I cannot believe more did not join the growing groundswell for Burris to jump in
It confirms most of the posters are really GOPs becuase they know he would mop up (the Ds newest weapon) the Edgar/ERV/JRT/Stu stable of candidates being offered
Fraidy Cats

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Friday, Oct 23, 09 @ 7:36 am
Hynes. He has the most distance from Blago of the two. And Blago will be absolutely toxic after next summer’s trial. Quinn will have to do a lot of dancing to explain how he went from gadfly to apologist. I’m not sure the general election demographic will buy it.

Comment by Stuck with Sen. CPA Friday, Oct 23, 09 @ 8:31 am
Hynes. He is Quinn without the Blagojevich baggage.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Oct 23, 09 @ 9:08 am
Hynes and Quinn are both great guys, but honestly, neither will have a shot in the general. And if by chance one of these guys is elected, that means the republicans really blew their shot.

Hynes is a nice enough guy, but he just doesn’t strike me as a leader.

After the Blago impeachment Quinn looked like a shining knight and it appeared there was a new day. However, since then he has been unable to do anything, and you really can’t blame the legislative leaders or the economy. He turned the Quinn administration into the Walker administration. You have a bunch of smart people with good intentions who just can’t execute a plan. Name one accomplishment Quinn can claim for himself? You can’t say capital - that was in the making before him and would have passed with anyone in the Governor’s chair besides Blago. He was passionate about recall, yet he dropped it as soon as there was the opposition. He was going to clean house, but that didn’t happen either.

Comment by honestly Friday, Oct 23, 09 @ 9:28 am