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* UPDATED x1 * Quinn wants truce - Plus: Giannoulias leads in new poll; Filing day fun

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* After running a TV ad that is deliberately designed to insult our intelligence, Pat Quinn is now saying he’ll stop the negatives if Dan Hynes stops. From a press release…

We are perplexed by Comptroller Hynes’s concerns with our latest TV ad, given that everything in our ad is factually correct and based on the Comptroller’s own public schedules, which are readily available to all. These schedules make it clear that, during the greatest budget crisis in Illinois history, the state’s comptroller was largely absent from the scene. […]

It remains our intention to conduct a campaign of ideas and principles. But given Hynes’ unrelentingly negative TV campaign, we are firmly committed to forcefully responding to his distortions of the Governor’s record.

Dan Hynes made the decision last month to run a negative campaign based on misleading voters about the Governor’s decades-long record of fighting for tax fairness and tax relief for working families. He can make another decision today to end this negative approach. Upon his pledge to pull his latest attack ad, we will pull our response ad from the air and will devote all future TV advertising to Governor Quinn’s record and his plans for moving Illinois forward.

That is today’s choice: Dan Hynes can continue down the negative TV campaign path that he started, or he can join Governor Quinn is restoring this campaign to the informative, issues-based principles that Democratic primary voters deserve.

Awaiting Hynes’ response.

*** UPDATE *** From the Hynes campaign.

“Two days after launching an embarrassingly absurd attack ad that continues to draw derision from outside observers, the Quinn campaign wants a way out. No thanks. We will continue to run our campaign based on a discussion of the central issue facing the state of Illinois and its future – the budget crisis. Pat Quinn is free to continue talking about haircuts.” -Matt McGrath, campaign spokesman

* Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has released results of a new poll that shows him ahead of Republican Mark Kirk. From a press release…

Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leads Republican Mark Kirk in the race for U.S. Senate in Illinois, 46 – 43 percent. In addition, voters approve of the job that Giannoulias is doing as state Treasurer by more than a 2:1 margin.

In a matchup against Democrat David Hoffman, however, Kirk fares much better. Kirk leads Hoffman by a 48 – 39 percent margin. Giannoulias outpaces Hoffman’s performance in every region of the state, including the city of Chicago.

Giannoulias currently leads Kirk in the Chicago media market by a 51 – 38 percent margin. David Hoffman, who has spent the last four years in the public eye as the city’s Inspector General and generated 405 news stories, trails Kirk inside the Chicago market (41 – 47 percent).

The general election findings are based on a sample of 805 likely general election voters conducted October 25th – 28th conducted for the Alexi for Illinois campaign. A sample of this size is subject to a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Speaking of the US Senate race, this is from ABC’s The Note…

With a conservative revolt pushing a Republican candidate out of a key House race in New York State, the head of the conservative group Club for Growth is warning that other Republicans could face similar fates in primary races next year — and Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla., is at the top of that list. […]

Chocola said other candidates could also come under scrutiny from the right. Rep. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., who’s running for the Senate next year, is “probably not” someone the club would support, he said.

It’s not at all clear from that piece if the Club for Growth will take after Kirk. Seems kinda doubtful.

By the way, Democratic candidate Jake Meister has posted a web video about filing day.

* Today is the last day to file for the February 2nd primary. Click here to watch them come in. Several candidates have submitted their petitions...

Among filers today is Ed Scanlon, a lawyer from Oak Park, running for the Democratic nomination for governor. He’s against any state income-tax increase, and wants the state to save money by putting new employees on a defined contribution retirement plan - such as a 401(k), instead of a defined benefit plan that pays monthly for life.

Scanlon said he might spend as much as $500,000 on his own race.

As of 2:04 pm, Cook County Board President Todd Stroger had not yet filed for reelection. State Rep. Michael Boland hadn’t yet filed for lieutenant governor.

But there have been a few who did hand in petitions. Among them is Chicago Ald. Brian Doherty, who will run as a Republican for retiring Democratic Sen. James DeLeo’s seat. As subscribers know, this has been one drama after another. Conservative Republican Patrick Hughes has filed for US Senate.

Sen. Don Harmon has filed for 7th District State Central Committeeman against Congressman Danny Davis. Davis has filed for Congress and Cook County Board President. He has until next Monday to decide which office to seek. Former congressional candidate Christine Cegelis has filed for the 6th District Democratic Central Committeewoman slot against Joan Brennan.

Republican Rosanna Pulido has filed again for the 5th District congressional slot. Pulido is an anti illegal immigrant activist who won the special Republican primary to replace Rahm Emanuel and was stomped by Mike Quigley. Aurelia Pucinski has filed for a vacant slot on the 1st Appellate bench.

* Related…

* Schillerstrom congratulates Dillard for folding on video poker

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:06 pm

Comments

Still no petitions from Cheryle Jackson or McKenna either. Tic-toc, kiddies. Only three more hours.

Comment by Obamarama Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:19 pm
“he started it”

“did not”

“did so”

Why can’t these children act like adults?

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:25 pm
It was only a matter of time before Alexi got a survey he could release. I am shocked he did not give you the questions, Rich. He only put out a release? Did Alexi release the questions asked to get those numbers?

Comment by Anon Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:34 pm
Where is that Dan Proft … he realizes time is ticking to file …

Comment by The Ghost of Jack! Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:39 pm
Funny Alexi releasing numbers showing how Kirk is stronger against Hoffman and Jackson. Alexi should be and seems to be worried about his own primary and he should be, Hoffman and Meister both have substantial bank accounts.

Comment by Anon Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:39 pm
I said earlier that I had tweeted with Erick Erickson of redstate over the weekend and that they are going to stand down and not attack Kirk because they thought that unlike the guy in florida and the woman in new york, Kirk was a fiscal and national security hawk. The club for growth has never targeted kirk before in the past as he’s voted for most of the tax cuts and been good on business issues and tort reform.

As for the alexi poll, of the 6 suburban districts , ours is the most liberal by far and Kirk has won it 5 cycles running. That plus the increased intensity deficit between gop voters in blue areas like new jersey and northern virginia, I think gives kirk a great shot.

Comment by shore Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:41 pm
Margin of error? For a poll taken for the reason of releasing it? For a statewide?

Comment by CarterK Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:41 pm
That Quinn press release seems childish: “He started it!” I started out backing Quinn, but as this thing goes on, I’ve become a Hynes voter and if Quinn does get the nomination, potentially a GOP voter for gov.

Quinn needs stop whining and try leading.

Comment by OdysseusVL Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:42 pm
Hynes tries to go negative early. Gets hit back so hard that he takes his ad off the air after only one week. He tries to go even more negative. Gets hit back harder. And now he will have to defend his negative ads against Quinn’s challenge. Someone is certainly winning this back and forth, and it ain’t the guy who was 20 pts behind.

Comment by WizardofOzzie Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:43 pm
Anon - Don’t blame the messenger.

If hoffman thinks the poll is phoney-baloney, all he needs to do is craft and release his own poll.

My guess is its pretty spot on. Alexi’s been state treasurer for four years, no one who doesn’t read the tribune or sun-times has ever heard of hoffman. And based on their bankruptcy, that’s not that many people.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:46 pm
===Someone is certainly winning this back and forth, and it ain’t the guy who was 20 pts behind. ===

Here’s the thing, if you run an ad that’s so out of touch with reality, as Quinn’s ad was, the press won’t defend you so much when your opponent whacks back, as Hynes is sure to do.

And when we get to that level (Rod Blagojevich’s running mate), I don’t think you’ll be able to make that statement so easily.

Quinn is still the frontrunner, but there’s a long road ahead of us and lots of blood to spill.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:47 pm
Great! Quinn is so much better than that most recent Ad etc. Hynes and Quinn both appear to be really good people and diligent public servants.

Governor Quinn shouldn’t even wait for a response from Hynes. Governor Quinn should just tell Illinoisians why HE [Quinn is the better candidate, in terms of what he plans to do and how he plans to work WITH the GA].

both Hynes and Quinn can do negative ads. Negative ads are necessary and effective sometimes, but that neither Quinn nor Hynes should dwell on negative ads to get their points across. And, when they do neagtive ads they should be factually accurate and direct.

Governor Quinn, should not be afraid to admit his mistakes as governor; he’s human and clealry nobody’s born a governor. Most people should and probably do respect honest self-assessments. It is well understood that he inherited a mess, and weren’t quite prepared for what he stepped into.

Truth be told…I like Quinn, but he just like anyone else has to earn my vote and provide leadership. As far as I’ve been concerned all he ever had to do was just be himself, work hard and do the best job that he could in the interest of the Illinois. That’s all I have ever wanted from a governor.

I’m going to be like Hilary Clinton and re-set the clock. My fondest recollection of Quinn this year was when he took the oath of office, all humble and nervous.

Anonymous45 are you tearing up yet???????

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 3:47 pm
I would be shocked if there wasn’t at least one Republican who waited literally until the last minute to file for Governor, in order to assure the last position in a crowded list of candidates. Filing right now and having a couple other candidates file after you would be foolish.

Comment by fedup dem Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:02 pm
Someone explain to me how Hynes’ wins. He can do a lot of damage to Quinn, but everything they’ve tried in this campaign has been shoved back down their throat. Quinn has spent $1M so far and has showed no signs of slowing down. That should tell everyone that his fundraising is going pretty well.

Dan can try to attach Quinn to Blagojevich but that’s not a winning strategy for the primary. He also might want to think about his endorsement of Blago. And Todd Stroget. And his run against Barack Obama. Etc, etc, etc.

Hynes’ strategy is to try and tear Quinn down. Influential Democrats (donors and elected officials) understand this and are now flocking to Quinn to minimize the damage Hynes’ can do.

Comment by WizardofOzzie Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:05 pm
WizardofOzzie, unless you have polling data, we just don’t know yet how these ads are playing. We should know for sure by Thanksgiving if Hynes can win or not.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:08 pm
Wizzard,

A brief explanation of how Hynes wins: time. With each passing day, the current budget erodes and Quinn is left to choose between a bad option and a worse option.

See “Free Rides for Seniors,” “MAP” and other recent bad options Governor Quinn has (not) dealt with. And it will only get progressively worse until Groundhog Day.

All Hynes needs to do is to continue to distract Quinn, who is walking a tightrope trying not to look down.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:10 pm
===A brief explanation of how Hynes wins: time. ===

Don’t bet on that. There are about seven weeks of real campaign time left before primary day. Hynes has to force his case now, not wait for Quinn to bungle it more.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:12 pm
Is there a weird HTML thing going on with this page or do I have a virus. I think there’s a superfluous “a” tag in here because everything that should just show up as plain text is showing up as a hyperlink that connects to: “mailto:capitolfax@aol.com?subject=BLOG READER CONTACTING RICH MILLER”

Comment by Scooby Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:13 pm
Fair point. The ads will have had to do a ton of damage.

Remember, Dan had almost all county chairs and ward committeeman behind him in 2004. And he lost by 27 points. That he could beat a sitting Governor, who now has the overwhelming majority of those who supported Hynes on his side, seems unlikely. But you’re right. We’ll know more by the end of the month. It looks like Quinn is trying to wrap this baby up early.

Comment by WizardofOzzie Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:13 pm
Scooby, oops. Fixed. Thanks

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:14 pm
Whew. Thanks, much better.

Comment by Scooby Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:18 pm
You’re welcome. Forgot to close not one, but two tags. Oopsie.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:18 pm
OdysseusVL & 47th Ward

I agree with you both that the press release sounds childish. For what it is worth, I gather that it is the product/thinking of Quinn’s campaign spokesperson rather than Quinn himself. Still, I’m guessing the press release had to get approved by Quinn. But, he’s got a lot on his mind and plate, and probably didn’t take into account how awful it is,and how bad it makes him look/come across.

Maybe he’d be better off to have a better product presented to him in the first place. Maybe he needs a better campaign spokesperson staff? with 12 weeks to go he better hope that no more press releases like that are released like that that make him look childish. The above press release is a bungle for sure!

;-)

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:24 pm
47th Ward- Time is exactly what Dan does not have. There is a reason Chicago municipal elections are held in early Feburary. It’s incumbent protection.

Quinn people had to worry about veto session hurting them. They had the CTA hiccup but that is small potatoes in comparison to getting a campaign finance bill done w/ Change Illinois on board. Veto was a political success for the Governor (though I’m sure he would have liked the Cemetary Care bill to pass).

Comment by WizardofOzzie Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:27 pm
WizardofOzzie, you’ve got it backwards. The media is telling people that the reform bill is an epic failure. And lots more people care about their transit rides and the fate of their departed loved ones anyway.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:29 pm
Bob Fioretti jumped into the congressional race. That’s interesting.

Comment by OdysseusVL Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:36 pm
Rich:

The time tags on each of the posts are also currently one hour ahead, likely b/c of the weekend time change.

Comment by Helm Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:45 pm
WizardofOzzie - atching a candidate to Blago in Illinois in 2009 can be very effective for any race. It’s not a primary/general issue. The guy is poison to any part of the electorate.

And no one should call that mess of a week that was veto a win for anyone. Reform will get bashed by all the papers and Quinn’s latest waffle is sending CTA/RTA back to the poor house. Late trains on snowy platforms before an election = problem.

So, explain to you how Hynes wins? I’m not saying he will, but the mighty-quinn this guy is not. He’s never won a major race, his shop is a bit amature. I can easily see him stumbling down the stretch.

Comment by L.S. Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 4:54 pm
Quinn camp, nothing you do has to be contigent upon whether or not the Hynes camp does it too. McGrath says the Hynes camp won’t join you, then don’t worry about that—just do what you need to do to make yourself look good.

Now, I want a good clean fight between the two of youse.

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 5:11 pm
My question is, “what makes Alexi a good candidate for United States Senate?” Does the fact he has a pulse qualify him? Why is he even being considered by anyone? Why do people think a naive huckster from Illinois can be a successful senator?

Comment by Fred former Anon Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 5:17 pm
============My question is, “what makes Alexi a good candidate for United States Senate?” Does the fact he has a pulse qualify him? Why is he even being considered by anyone? Why do people think a naive huckster from Illinois can be a successful senator? ==============

I’ve been asking the same question…

Comment by Anon Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 5:24 pm
way to show some chutzpah, Harmon!!

Comment by LoopLady Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 5:32 pm
“WizardofOzzie, you’ve got it backwards. The media is telling people that the reform bill is an epic failure. And lots more people care about their transit rides and the fate of their departed loved ones anyway. ”

Ummmmm, how many times have you railed against the Tribune exec board’s prouncements from up on high? No one cares.

I said it was good week for Quinn politically. Quinn now has a reform bill to point to and cover from Change Illinois. Will make a nice press conference, ad and/or mailer. He also vetoed the legislature’s bill and got a better product. Politically, that’s a good thing.

There is also an insurance reform bill that got overshadowed, but was quite an accomplishment. Will also make a great mailer. Timely too with everything going on in Washington.

If you think people are going attach CTA’s problems to Quinn, sorry, you’re wrong. The issue may have been bungled a bit but he can say he was fighting to keep rates the same. Seniors ride free costs the CTA $17M a year. They have a $300M budget deficit. Give me a break. Everyone knows seniors rider free was Blago’s baby. Despite editorial board heming and hawing this won’t have any legs.

Those of us on the rail get caught up in each piece of legislation but forget how it can be used politically.

Comment by WizardofOzzie Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 5:37 pm
Wizard,

It isn’t just the Tribune. Greg Hinz rips the Governor for the CTA flip-flop and the Pantagraph quotes Donne Trotter saying more cuts are coming.

And over the weekend, Quinn formed another commission to tell him what to do about the economy. What is the over/under on Quinn Commissions?

If your idea of a politically successful veto session is accurate, I’d hate to see what failure looks like. And every day brings us closer to financial disaster. Tick, tock Governor.

I’ve said it before, but Quinn needs to lead, follow or get out of the way. We’re waiting Governor.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 5:53 pm
wizard of ozzie– as quinn rolls beack and forth on issues/legislation, et al– how can i vote for him?
today’s reports are that he reneged on his agreement with the mayor in chicago on rta. he is always flip flopping… hynes doesn’t seem to///

Comment by publius Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 5:54 pm
Good response from the Hynes people.

Comment by Anon Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 5:54 pm
I agree with 47th Ward about Quinn having to step up is long overdue.

The commissions, task forces and panels that he creates has to stop. He is very light in the accomplishments column heading into a competitive primary. The good thing is that Hynes doesn’t have a gubernatorial record to stand on either, or any huge accomplishments as comptroller that are comporable to anything that the governor’s office does.

But, it is not good that Quinn has very little/nothing to show for his time in office. He spent too much time chasing after too many big things or non-priorities only to have them go bust in his face.

From here on out Quinn cannot afford to make any mistakes or have anymore missteps.

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 6:29 pm
Will God please save us from Alexi?

Incompetence and immorality are how we got into this mess in Illinois (Ryan, Blago, Burris).

It doesn’t matter one’s party, race, gender, etc. Some people are smart, able and honest.

Alexi is not.

Comment by ANON Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 7:43 pm
[…] SurveyUSA: McDonnell 58, Deeds 40. Giannoulias poll shows him leading Kirk by 3. The New York Times discovers Alan Grayson. […]

Pingback by Remainders: Tight as a tick in Jersey | Obama Biden White House Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 9:02 pm
WizardofOzzie you said, “getting a campaign finance bill done w/ Change Illinois on board” was a big deal. Did you read what Change Illinois spokesperson said about your boss…(SunTimes today) Sitting in the corner…

“This is not how we teach our children about making public policy,” Canary said. “For right now, it’s the best we can do. . . . [Senate President John] Cullerton and Madigan were immovable objects. . . . The governor just parked himself in a corner and wasn’t a player. . . . All those editorials, press conferences and peoples’ calls did not outweigh legislative personal interest.”

Comment by Ty Webb Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 9:43 pm
Pat, don’t fold! Dan, don’t put up with Quinn’s insults!!!

Time to enjoy the Dem ‘circular firing squad’. Cook up some popcorn and sit back to enjoy. Maybe their buddy Blago will chime in just to keep it interesting. End result: better government.

Comment by Bobs yer Monday, Nov 2, 09 @ 11:11 pm
i thought kirk had club for growth support when he initially ran for congress. seriously doubtful they would support someone against him now…

Comment by bored now Tuesday, Nov 3, 09 @ 6:51 am
Rich, you were right on when you described the volatility in the Latino districts in Chicago’s SW side. The Muñoz vs Muñoz race was the only one I hadn’t considered. It’s gonna be a fun primary season down here.

Comment by chitownhv Tuesday, Nov 3, 09 @ 10:23 am
Quinn’s call for a truce is absolutely hilarious, on a school yard level.

Has he missed a trick by not putting out a positive, intro spot? He has some positives there, as a long-time maverick hated by the Establishment.

Put it this way, even as the incumbent, if he runs in this atmosphere as the Establishment candidate, he could very easily lose.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 3, 09 @ 10:24 am
I was part of the Giannoulias push poll. It woke me up, took fifteen minutes, and asked four or five times if I would still vote for Kirk over Giannoulias if I also knew blah de blah blah blah. That 54 percent stayed on the line even though they do not support Giannoulias surprises me. They only asked about Giannoulias, Kirk, Hoffman, Obama, and Bush.

Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Nov 3, 09 @ 12:55 pm