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* Cheryle Jackson’s US Senate campaign is distributing a new polling memo. Keep in mind that the stuff about how numbers move after the reads the candidate’s message in memos like these means little unless the candidate actually has the money to burn his/her message into voters’ brains. There’s not much time left for that, considering the upcoming holidays.
Anyway, all highlighting is in the original…
A recent statewide survey of likely Democratic Primary voters reveals a wide-open race for U.S. Senate in Illinois, with Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson strongly positioned to win. In an initial trial heat, nearly half of voters are undecided, with Cheryle Jackson running second to Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. Once this race becomes engaged, however, and the candidates introduce themselves to the voters, Cheryle Jackson makes dramatic gains in her support—more than doubling her initial support—and rapidly assumes the lead over the field. Her status as a frontrunner is all the more noteworthy since her primary opponent, Alexi Giannoulias, is the sitting State Treasurer, enjoys broader name identification, and has had a six-month head start on campaigning.
Key Findings
If the election were held today, “undecided” would win the race, claiming 45% of the vote, with the candidates’ current positions relating largely to name ID. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias starts out with 31% of the vote (just 16% of which is strong support), followed by Cheryle Jackson at 13% (7% strong). David Hoffman and Jacob Meister each draw support in the single digits (8% and 2%, respectively). The softness of Giannoulias’ support, however, along with Jackson’s potential to surge ahead, are quickly made clear in this data.After voters hear each of the candidates’ positive messages, Cheryle Jackson is the only candidate to make rapid gains and quickly vaults into the lead in the race for U.S. Senate. (The text of each of the profiles is provided in the back of this document). Jackson more than doubles her initial support, attracting 30% of the vote, while Giannoulias’ support actually drops by 2 points to 29%. Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman inches up to 11%, and lawyer Jacob Meister to just 5%. Nearly one-quarter of the electorate (24%) remains undecided.
In addition to her demonstrable personal appeal, Cheryle Jackson has other unique advantages—as the only woman and the only African American in this crowded field. The composition of this Democratic primary electorate skews female (58%), and the undecided vote even more so (60%). Among voters who express a preference for the gender of their next Senator, a woman is preferred to a man by a substantial margin of more than 3:1. In addition, if one were to simulate undecided African American voters coalescing behind Jackson, the initial trial heat moves immediately from 31%-13% to 31%-22%, placing Jackson within single digits of Giannoulias. This, of course, assumes traditional turnout of African American voters in this primary at 24%; every point increase in turnout translates into added vote for Jackson.
Underscoring the wide-open nature of this contest, solid majorities of voters are unfamiliar with all the candidates in this race, including 8 in 10 undecided voters. This is particularly striking for Giannoulias, the only statewide officeholder, and the sitting Treasurer since 2006. Moreover, while Giannoulias converts much of his existing name identification into votes, he appears already to have maximized his potential in that regard. Thirty-seven percent of voters have a favorable impression of Giannoulias, and 10% have an unfavorable impression. Even for this sitting officeholder, a majority of primary voters has either no opinion of him (29%), or has never heard of him (24%). Voters views on Giannoulias’ job performance as State Treasurer is much more mixed. Nearly as many rate his performance negatively (30% “just fair”/”poor”) as positively (36% “excellent”/”good”), and undecided voters are solidly negative on his performance as Treasurer (16% “excellent”/”good” to 33% “just fair”/”poor”). Again, once voters learn more about Giannoulias, his support actually drops.
Cheryle Jackson, on the other hand, demonstrates a remarkable ability to more than double her vote share as voters become more familiar with her. She starts out with 23% of voters having a favorable impression of her, and 9% unfavorable. Many voters still have either no opinion (32%), or has never heard of her (35%). Once voters are introduced to her, her support jumps from 13% to 30%, and she assumes the lead.David Hoffman and Jacob Meister both appear to be non-factors in this race. Neither candidate is well known, neither starts out with significant support, and neither makes noticeable gains in support after being introduced to the voters. Hoffman is little known (13% favorable, 5% unfavorable, 35% no opinion, 47% never heard). Jacob Meister is even more unfamiliar to voters (4% favorable, 2% unfavorable, 32% no opinion, 62% never heard).
In short, polling shows that Cheryle Jackson is a frontrunner in the race for Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat. With just three short months until the primary, Jackson is the only candidate poised to make significant gains once the campaigns start communicating with voters. Giannoulias, already having converted much of his existing personal affect into vote, is unable to capitalize further on his name ID advantage. While Cheryle Jackson more than doubles her support after voters are introduced to her in a competitive environment, additional exposure for Giannoulias actually leaves him with fewer votes than he begins with. The data reveal that Cheryle Jackson alone has the momentum to win the race to fill President Obama’s Senate seat.
* Meanwhile, Dem US Senate underdog Jacob Meister has a new TV ad…
The campaign of Chicago attorney and Democratic Senate candidate Jacob Meister said it began airing one-minute TV ads in central Illinois today in which he contends that helping the economy and creating jobs is more important than battling corruption.
“There’s other people who would like to say that it’s all about corruption,” Meister says in the ad, which revisits his Springfield appearance to file candidacy petitions for the Feb. 2 Democratic primary nomination. “Obviously, corruption is an important message, but that’s not the measuring stick we should be using. This is about the economy.” […]
Running a one-minute campaign commercial is unusual, but Meister’s ad is airing in the Champaign, Springfield and Peoria TV markets, where advertising rates are less expensive than in the Chicago market.
Rate it.
* Related…
* Giannoulias announces expansion of loan program for veterans
* Politics & Poker: Self-Funders Could Influence Several ’10 Contests
* Who Will Be The Next Hoffmania Victim In 2010 — Or The Next Hoffman?
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:14 am
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this is a woulda shoulda coulda poll. Since I doubt every message heard by voters about her going forward is going to be positive, I think her chances are tough. If the best she does is close within 9 points without hearing the bad stuff, it’s not good news.
I’ve never seen a polling memo that tells the candidate you have no chance.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:31 am
It’s more of a fundraising memo than a polling memo. If she can use it to raise $2 million to properly introduce herself to the electorate, those numbers might move the way the pollster suggests. But we all know she won’t be operating in a vacuum, so maybe $4 million is needed. At any rate, the memo seems accurate.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:35 am
Sweet! I’m going to save that release, and when I run for office, replace “Cheryle Jackson” with “Leroy Brown”.
I will no doubt be the underdog, so it should just be a cut-and-paste with the names involved.
The numbers? I am sure they will be the same.
Comment by Leroy Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:36 am
A quick question for Cheryl Jackson’s pollster… How do those numbers look when voters are told that Cheryl spent two years as the chief defender and apologist for Blago??? Do we even need to waste time with this?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:45 am
I am really starting to favor Meister for Senate. At this point it is between Giannoulias and Mesiter for me, but there is plenty of time left.
Comment by Springfield Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:48 am
So what do polling numbers and The Bible have in common?? Antbody can make them say anything they want them to.
Nothing to see here.
train111
Comment by train111 Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:48 am
===I’ve never seen a polling memo that tells the candidate you have no chance.===
I wrote a memo to that effect. Guess how that story ends?
Re: Jackson, it strikes me how many times her name is spelled “Cheryl” on this blog and not “Cheryle,” as is correct. It goes to show that people are not used to reading/writing her name.
Re: Meister, he came off as very, very bland in the ad. His voice was monotonous–even when he tried to emphasize how ready to go he is. Unimpressed.
Comment by Obamarama Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:54 am
Jackson’s polling memo is about as valid as one of those survey awards from J.D. Power, where they parse the category to such a molecular level that only the guy that paid for the study would qualify to be IN it, much less win it. Jackson’s memo reads like that: “Of all the left-handed, red-haired, hazel-eyed, mobility-impaired female Guamanian’s who are a Gemini with Aquariious rising and never read the name Blagojevich in any printed material… it’s a blow-out for Cheryle… IF they are made aware of her.”
Even if you took the memo on good faith, all it points to is the fact that there are a huge number of idiot uneducated voters out there to be harvested if you dump millions of dollars in ad buys on them to generate name recognition. A lesson Cheryle Jackson learned oh so well under her former boss Rod Blagojevich.
Only 9 percent unfavorable? Were those other people from some other state, picked from an amnesia ward, or did they even know who she worked for before?
She’s not going to raise the kind of money it would take to saturate the electorate and harvest that undecided segment, so unless Alexi gets hit by a meteor between now and then, I’d say she’s done.
Comment by Some Guy Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:54 am
Meister’s piece was pretty milquetoast. I don’t find it impressive and I don’t imagine it is going to move the needle for anybody not already on his team. If I was him and had no money I would work harder on my earned media with debates and talk radio appearances.
Comment by Some Guy Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 10:58 am
—Re: Meister, he came off as very, very bland in the ad. His voice was monotonous–even when he tried to emphasize how ready to go he is. Unimpressed.—
Sorry I’m not looking for a cheerleader. I’m looking for a person who knows the issues and has experience. No wonder we keep ending up with useless representation.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 11:06 am
Rating the ad, as asked, not the candidate.
Comment by Obamarama Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 11:10 am
Meister’s piece was a complete waste of $$$$ if they are actually putting it on the air. I mean if it’s an online only video, then it’s good for that purpose.
But if you are spending the money to buy 60 seconds of airtime, then it’s a total waste that will be lost in the ether. Why bother. It doesn’t introduce the candidate. It doesn’t introduce a message. It really doesn’t do much of anything.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 11:36 am
As to Cheryle’s polling memo, and all similar memos, you must know the statements they are attaching to the poll. There’s NO way she’s polling that high if you include what everyone else does after the comma - “former Blagojevich spokesperson.” And there’s also no way Hoffman only rises to 11%.
Here’s what I mean. If you ask the question:
Who do you favor for the U.S. Senate?
1) Former president of the Chicago Urban League Cheryle Jackson
2) Attorney David Hoffman
3) Illinois Treasurer Alexi Gianoulias
You’ll get a much different result than if you asked the question:
Who do you favor for the U.S. Senate?
1) Former Blagojevich spokesman Cheryle Jackson
2) Former Assistant U.S. Attorney and City of Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman
3) Illinois Treasurer Alexi Gianoulias
See what I mean?
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 11:39 am
I wish I knew what the sample was for the poll.
But regardless, once you start airing the tapes of Cheryle Jackson defending Rod Blagojevich, she’s done.
I like Meister’s ad for four reasons:
1. It stands out in tone and format, in an era when most campaign ads blend together.
2. He focuses on jobs.
3. People will remember it after only seeing it once.
4. Its folksy nature appeals to the party’s progressive/netroots base, and its ready-made for viral internet marketing.
That said, I’d be airing it in Carbondale, Rockford, Rock Island and the Quad cities in addition to cable in the Collar counties.
And don’t worry, Someguy, about Meister running out of money. He’s already dropped $1 million of his own on the table, and the fact that he’s spending it before the holidays tells me there’s more to come.
After all of that, though, this is still Alexi’s race to lose, given his head start in name recognition, fundraising and organizing. But atleast Meister has a chance to make it interesting, which is good news for CapitolFax.
P.S. Is it just me, or is Mark Kirk looking a little less invincible these days?
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 11:39 am
I like the weaving of process and message for a web ad. But it’s not a web ad, it’s airing on TV.
Who are you? And why are you running for US Senate? If no one knows who you are, and in a 60 second ad, they still don’t really know who you are, you’re wasting your money.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 11:42 am
Doesn’t Dan Hynes tax plan endorse taxing “luxury services” like gym memberships, haircuts and yes…trips to the spa.!!! Or lets jjust build more casinos so people spend their money gambling instead of getting haircuts. Maybe we can put spas and barber shops in all these new casinos while we are at it. That will solve the problem. This is getting to the point where Pat Quinn will wear a suit and tie that doesn’t match and Hynes will issue a press release saying how Pat Quinn’s fashion choices make him unfit to govern.
Comment by Haircuts for All Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 11:43 am
Nobody is proposing a tax on haircuts. For good reason. Barbers have killed more service tax proposals than any humans alive.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 11:46 am
In the Meister youtube ad, was that Rudy Lozano Jr. at the end of the video??
Comment by Jorge Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 2:28 pm
Gee, not a lot of Jackson supporters here, huh? So naturally you guys dis her polls. OK. Whatever. You might be right. She may be a Blagojevich apologist and the tapes of her defending the Governor will do her in. OK - believe that. You just might be right.
But then, you don’t want Jackson to succeed, do you? There is this reccuring nightmare where an African American lady from Chicago beats the Party’s candidate and the upstart - you know, the old Dixon-Hofeld-Braun situation. In 1992, the Democrats survived that because the GOP didn’t have anyone except Williamson. This time, they know they don’t. So they can’t get a repeat of 1992. If it happens, Kirk will win.
So, it seems that a lot of the opinions expressed here come from Democratic ideologues who don’t care who wins a year from this month, as long as they have a little “(D)” after their name. And they also know that Jackson could win, just as Braun did - with a plurality, giving Kirk the inside track to the Blagojevich-Burris Golden US Senate seat.
You partisan hacks better hope Jackson doesn’t have a chance. So, dis her poll and double down on your dreamy Hoffmanoulais.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 2:28 pm
Don’t understand your point VM. The point I made (and some others) was pretty clear. Without knowing the specifics of the poll, particularly when the result doesn’t really make sense, it’s hard to know the accuracy of it.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 3:12 pm
VM, try to keep up. The Hofeld-Dixon-Braun analogy simply doesn’t work. Cheryle Jackson is no Carol Moseley Braun. This is not a presidential year, and there is no incumbent.
But other than that, you’re right — this is exactly the same election.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 3:43 pm
My totally unscientific, intuitive, hanging-out-at-school-events and having-a-beer-after-work methodology tells me no one has a clue who’s running for Senate, much less has an opinion.
I wouldn’t count out Jackson simply because there’s no reason to, yet. But she needs money, pronto, to get on TV.
Hynes and Quinn has some spark of interest, among my unwashed friends. Not much else, yet.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 3:50 pm
I didn’t say it was exactly the same election. It is a similar situation that could result in a similar outcome. You know this, but are trying to find reasons to ignor this. I’m not doing that.
As soon as Hoffman announced, I posted here these concerns. I am now more concerned than I was just a few months ago. And so should you.
You can choose to either hold back any comments that would damage Jackson in the case that she does win the nomination, and then support her without looking like a dummy, or you can hold back any comments you have that would damage Kirk. Which is it?
BTW, I voted for Braun twice.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 4:33 pm
VM, it really isn’t a similar situation except for the fact that it is two white men and one African-American woman in the race.
Braun put herself into position to capitalize on the Hofeld negative ad blitz by appealing to lakefront liberals and moderate women who were rightfully upset about Dixon’s vote to confirm Justice Thomas. Braun was a Univ. of Chicago Law grad who served in the General Assembly before winning the Recorder’s office in Cook County.
Cheryle Jackson’s bio in comparison is what exactly? Amtrak, Blagojevich, Urban League? It’s not even close. Furthermore, despite some questionable practices, Braun raised a ton of money in the primary in 1992, enough to go on TV when it mattered.
As I said earlier, this Jackson polling memo is designed to help her raise money. If she can raise $2-4 million, then her pollster’s points about “introducing” her to voters and moving the numbers makes sense. If she can’t, those numbers aren’t going to move much.
But thanks for your concern.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 6:32 pm
47, weirdly enough, the Jackson memo got great play tonight on Channel 7 Chicago. She was featured very prominently in B-roll over narration.
The weird stuff was that all the on-camera time went to Hoffman, commenting, and his peeps, at his headquarters.
Alexi got nothing. He must have honked off Charles Thomas somehow.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 8:39 pm
Anonymous 10:45, please get another handle.
I’m finding it hard to blow holes into the Jackson findings based on the numbers and where they fall. I’ve been saying all along, don’t underestimate her.
I like Jacob Meister’s commercial. The quality is good and he comes across as likeable, aware of the issues that are hurting Illinois, and determined–yet ?caring?, maybe?
It’s very positive and effective.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 9:06 pm
===
Even if you took the memo on good faith, all it points to is the fact that there are a huge number of idiot uneducated voters out there to be harvested if you dump millions of dollars in ad buys on them to generate name recognition.
===
Some Guy, are you from around these here parts?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 9:18 pm
===
You know this, but are trying to find reasons to ignor this. I’m not doing that.
===
V-Man’s got a good point. Some people on this thread are either in denial or want to pretend they have more control over situations than they actually do.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 9:28 pm
Oh, and BTW, Anonymous 10:45, get real. Watch and…think about your statements.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUtWAkIybkU
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 09 @ 9:42 pm
Not only is Meister running ads downstate, he has always laid out some cash for a campaign office in the heart of Campustown (500 block of East Green) here in Champaign.
They appeared to be holding some type of event there when I drove by tonight.
Perhaps Rich should have Mike Murray hang out down there and send us periodic updates!! (It’s only a few blocks from Mike’s apt. building.)
Comment by Lynn S Thursday, Nov 12, 09 @ 12:34 am