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Afternoon poll and campaign updates

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Polls

* The Illinois GOP just sent out a news release about poll results that I shared with subscribers today. Illinoisans oppose bringing those Gitmo prisoners to Thomson, according to the poll. From the release…

Survey Shows Only 32% of Illinois Voters Support Quinn/Durbin Plan to Move Gitmo to Illinois, 57% Oppose

60% of women, 58% of independents and plurality of Democrats call plan a “bad idea”

The automated polling firm We Ask America surveyed 1,791 likely Illinois voters yesterday. The poll had a margin of error of ± 2.32 percent. Here’s the actual question…

“It has been reported that a prison in northwestern Illinois is being considered to house individuals that have been incarcerated at the US military base at Guantanamo Bay. The individuals in question are being held due to suspicion that they have connections to terrorist activities. Do you think that housing these prisoners in an Illinois prison is a good idea or a bad idea?”

Subscribe for crosstabs and more results.

This isn’t much of a surprise. National polling by Gallup back in June had this result…

By more than 2-1, those surveyed say Guantanamo shouldn’t be closed. By more than 3-1, they oppose moving some of the accused terrorists housed there to prisons in their own states.

Whatever you think about this particular issue, it’s pretty clear that moving those prisoners to Thomson is a net political negative for Quinn and for those who support the plan.

* Meanwhile, Democratic US Senate candidate David Hoffman’s most recent polling memo is getting some play today. “Hoffman poll suggests hits on Giannoulias are potent,” reports The Hill. “Hoffman camp: Giannoulias nearly unelectable,” says Politico.

From the memo…

At the beginning of the survey, Mark Kirk leads both Alexi Giannoulias and David Hoffman, with Kirk getting an identical 40% of the statewide vote in pairings against each of the Democrats. Given the fact that Giannoulias is substantially better known at this stage than Hoffman (51% name ID for Giannoulias vs. 26% for Hoffman), it is not surprising that Giannoulias begins with a larger share of the vote in his trial heat against Kirk than Hoffman does (37% for Giannoulias vs. 30% for Hoffman).

So, Kirk leads 40-37 over Giannoulias and 40-30 over Hoffman.

Hoffman’s pollster contends that an informed electorate will reject Giannoulias…

Alexi Giannoulias’s own vulnerabilities are so significant, and far more damning than Kirk’s among the electorate, that Giannoulias is deeply flawed as a general election candidate for the Democratic Party. His nomination would put Barack Obama’s former Senate seat in extreme jeopardy for the Democrats. […]

Indeed, after voters hear positives and negatives for Hoffman, Giannoulias, and Kirk, Hoffman has the advantage over Kirk by 42% to 36%, while Giannoulias trails Kirk by a wide margin of 47% to 30%.

The attacks that the Republicans are likely to make against Giannoulias, and in fact already are making1, are powerful in raising deep concerns about him among voters. For example, three-quarters of all voters say they have very (62%) or fairly (13%) serious concerns about Giannoulias when they hear the following:

Alexi Giannoulias’s family bank had close financial ties with Tony Rezko, one of Rod Blagojevich’s top funders who is now in jail, and Alexi Giannoulias met personally with Rezko. Not only did the bank give $11 million in loans to Rezko and his businesses, but the bank also gave Rezko preferential treatment by allowing him to bounce nine checks worth more than $500,000 without closing his account or reporting his actions to the authorities.

Also, according to the memo, just 18 percent agree with the view that “it is unfair to criticize Alexi Giannoulias for problems at the Broadway Bank, including its involvement with Tony Rezko, because Alexi Giannoulias has not been involved with the bank for four years, and many other banks also made loans to Rezko before he was exposed as a criminal.”

The Hill has the Giannouolias campaign’s response…

“Every public poll shows Alexi Giannoulias leading or neck and neck with Mark Kirk, while David Hoffman is trailing badly,” Bowen said. “He is behind, desperate, and now he is running a negative and dishonest campaign, preferring to attack fellow Democrats instead of telling us what he would do in the Senate. Just last week, the Chicago Tribune caught him falsely attacking Alexi Giannoulias and he was forced to apologize.”

* Other campaign stories…

* Cook board votes to cut half of Stroger sales-tax hike: The board voted 12-5 to cut the year-old increase in half. Mr. Stroger earlier had vetoed similar moves, but a new state law cuts the number of votes needed on the board to override the president to 11 from 14… “We had 12. We need 11. It’s always nice to have a little insurance,” she said.

* Zorn: Petition challenge hearings begin: The ‘gotcha’ game is afoot:
“Apparently, for whatever reason, her voter registration didn’t get transferred when she moved” recently, says Deb Mell’s attorney, Michael J. Kasper. “We disagree with the claim that this invalidates her petitions.” I’m no election lawyer, but my reading of an 86-page summary of prior rulings (.pdf) published this month by the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners is that Kasper’s right.* As hypertechnical as some of the disqualifications may seem — tossing a candidate for using a professional title on his petitions, failing to number or properly bind petition sheets and so on — there’s a considerable amount of common sense evident in the rulings.

* Kirk Foe Heads To DC: Wealthy atty Patrick Hughes (R) will be the latest to try and capitalize on conservative anger with perceived centrist candidates when he heads to DC this week for meetings with right-leaning organizations.

* Schakowsky Endorses Giannoulias’ Senate Bid

* Matt Murphy picks up endorsements: The endorsements came from state senators John Millner of Carol Stream, Brad Burzynski of Rochelle and Pam Althoff of McHenry along with state representatives Suzie Bassi of Palatine, Franco Coladipietro of Bloomingdale, Michael Connelly of Lisle, Sid Mathias of Buffalo Grove, Dennis Reboletti of Elmhurst, Randy Ramey of Carol Stream, Sandra Pihos of Glen Ellyn and Ed Sullivan, Jr. of Mundelein.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:01 pm

Comments

Nice poll
Too bad Commando Kirk and his cronies and have been laughed off the stage by the powerful Tribune Editorial board which has been leading StateWideTom and other GOPers around by the nose for the past year.

The poll barely breaks the national average and there are a whole bunch of folks who want the prison.

People are starting to forget the Commando’s pandering to CaribouBarbie in just one week

What will he do to make us forget this blunder?

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:18 pm
The poll results are not a surprise to me.

Giannoulais is right to hold off on endorsing this political land mine.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:32 pm
Although the prison is a good idea, voters don’t understand it yes so they reacted in a certain. That happens. It will take a leader to provide the real facts to show why this actually is a pretty good idea. Kirk of course is no leader. He is going to pander to the uninformed voters. That’s pretty much his style. Asking him to take a serious look at the issue and then to lead is asking too much of Kirk.

Comment by OdysseusVL Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:40 pm
Team America has covered Hughes like a blanket, I’m not sure if he’s ever said he’s wealthy. The Hill generally has issues with fact checking.

Jan’s endorsement hurts hoffman in making the north shore his base. Perhaps Rich can confirm this.

Time for the MSM to eat crow on Kirk pandering to the base on gitmo north. Independents are with the GOP.

Before this debate on gitmo goes from dumb to dumber (you can figure out who the lloyd and harry are here) some paper needs to get an intern to check facts and positions so emotion doesn’t overtake reality and that includes the national debate as to whether or not these folks belong in cuba and the experience of other states like new jersey with the one eyed sheikh.

That polling on Alexi will get even worse once we hit the blago trial and the recession moves forward. Remember every day we move a day further away from voters caring about the bush administration and a day closer to the obama administration taking responsibility for key issues and the blago trial.

A hoffman kirk fight could be described as a “war for walker brothers” between two short,conservative (hoffman worked for boren who was a blue dog and rehnquist who was a republican SCOTUS) ivy league educated, north shore lawyers who went to new trier.

Comment by shore Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:42 pm
Looks like Durbin is at odds with a plurality of people in Illinois.

Comment by Lee Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:51 pm
Actually, I am not surprised by the results as the question is biased as written. First, the question fails to describe the prison security level (maximum). Second, while stating the negative, that the proposed prisoners are accused terrorists, nothing is mentioned about the jobs created or the local community support for the federal purchase and placement.

Comment by Louis Howe Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:52 pm
Louis, that question isn’t really biased. It’s a decent question.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:55 pm
Take automated polls with a grain of salt.

Comment by Dem observer Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 2:59 pm
Pat loaned himself $250,000 but I don’t know if he drained his 401K anticipating he’d pay himself back once his campaign got off the ground or not. My bet is that he’s going to be very reluctant to drain his campaign account below that $250K. I think it’s telling that so far, it doesn’t seem like he’s spent much aside from staffer/consultant salaries.

I think I’m safe in stating that Hughes doesn’t have the ability to self fund to put him on anything resembling a level playing field with Kirk’s millions.

Comment by Team America Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 3:01 pm
DO, that’s really just a fallacy. The technology is proven.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 3:02 pm
“Louis… that question isn’t really biased. It’s a decent question.”

Rich…In my opinion, the question measures the public’s tolerance for locating prisoners “with terrorist activities” in Illinois. It doesn’t measure whether “Illinoisans oppose bringing Gitmo prisoners to Thompson..” In order to actually measure the Gitmo deal both the positive and the negative would need to be presented and tested. Only the negative was contained in the GOP question, therefore the question isn’t a good match with their conclusion.

Comment by Louis Howe Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 3:19 pm
Quinn and Durbin stepped in it. They needed to present a well-thought out plan for moving detainees to Thomson if they wanted voter buy-in. Instead they opened the door for their political opponents to paint them as selling our safety for a few jobs. Labeling the criticism as cowardly is more likely to alienate the 57% of voters who don’t think it’s a good move and make them resistent to any reasonable arguement D&Q might now try to offer.

Comment by 10th Indy Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 3:21 pm
LOL “Voters (implied to be stupid) don’t understand the issues yet”, and “the polls (when we don’t like the results)should be taken with a grain of salt”. Way to completely miss the point that this Gitmo/Thomson thing is way more than your typical spinnable left vs. right issue. Agree with Rich, there is much political peril with this. Too bad. Poor Illinois really did not need one more controversy right now.

Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 3:31 pm
Responsa,
Sometimes voters ARE uninformed. That does not make them stupid. It just means they lack information.
A leader will provide that information. That’s the difference between a person who is just a point man for a angry mob a leader who has a direction in mind.
But Kirk is no leader.

Comment by OdysseusVL Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 3:38 pm
Since that poll asked a leading question, here is a question that would be interesting to see the results from.

“It has been reported that an empty super maximum security prison in northwestern Illinois is being considered to house individuals that have been incarcerated at the US military base at Guantanamo Bay. Would you support allowing the State of Illinois to lease the prison to the Department of Defense to house a select number of these prisoners in an effort to generate state revenue and bring thousands of jobs to a economically depressed area?”

Comment by Big Policy Nerd Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 3:50 pm
Again, I don’t believe that poll question is misleading.

Frankly, it should’ve been worded more harshly, since the message received by so many on this issue is so negative. I’m more interested in seeing how the messaging is working. Both ways. So maybe two more questions were needed.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 3:56 pm
Odysseus,

Seriously, Kirk has been all over the place and pulling a team together, which includes Don Manzullo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76RyUG26BkE), to discuss the “other” side.

Therefore, how can you possibly make such a statement? Doesn’t informing include presenting both sides of the debate–or are your struggling with the dissemination of this information because it doesn’t support your position?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:11 pm
“Quinn and Durbin stepped in it.”

No.

Everybody has their own angle.

Durbin wants to stay on the ins with the White House and isn’t up til 2014 anyway. Nothing to lose.

Quinn needs those Obama supporters in the primary. Heck with the general. The primary is now.

Comment by True Observer Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:16 pm
BP Nerd,

Since I don’t recognize your handle from previous posts and your proposed question is clearly leading, I realize you may be intentionally being sarcastic—-(if so I apologize.) But, using the term “house individuals that have been incarcerated…” as you suggest, without mentioning anything about their suspected terrorist acts or distinguishing them from a US military troop who might be in the brig for some other reason would not be considered a useful polling question on this particular issue by a reliable polling outfit.

Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:21 pm
Hey Anon,
“Running this by other GOP Congressmen” does not really constitute a full view. Hmmm. A bunch of Congressional Republicans is AGAINST President Obama and Sen. Durbin? And, did you happen to hear that there is gambling at Rick’s?

Comment by OdysseusVL Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:24 pm
Public opinion on the Thomson question could turn. Since September 2001, many have been looking for a way to sacrifice on behalf of their country without really sacrificing, e.g., not enlisting for three years or paying the higher taxes necessary to support a wartime military.

Allowing the government to hold prisoners in one’s state may be just the feel good sacrifice some have been looking for.

Comment by Ivory-billed woodpecker Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:27 pm
Odysseus, I really don’t understand what you said, but are you saying that the “other” side of the debate is not valid simply because all or a majority of those presenting that side are Rs?

How about a referendum?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:32 pm
===How about a referendum? ===

Move to California.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:34 pm
He is going to pander to the uninformed voters.

LOL
Why are we always called uninformed by those unencumbered by reality? And as to charges of pandering, uh - welcome to the political world in a democracy.

Yeah - we’re all mindless dopes [/snark]

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:35 pm
Alright, so point lost. Are you picking on me today? lol

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:35 pm
Annon,
I’m saying that all the real evidence points in one direction but rather than acknowledge that evidence, Kirk has chosen to follow the herd.
I have no idea what you are referencing with a referendum and frankly, if you read my comments, that’s the polar opposite of what I’m suggesting.
Also, come up with a name. The Real Annon get annoued when people use his/her name.

Comment by OdysseusVL Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:35 pm
As a GOP’er I say bring Alexi on! Organized crime, bad bank loans, failed leadership at Bright Start. Great resume for a US Senator! Unless there is a lot we dont know about Hoffman, the Dems are really missing the boat on this one.

Comment by Red Ranger Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:35 pm
I’d still like Odysseus to answer my first question, though, assuming I understood his correctly.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:36 pm
” Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:36 pm:

I’d still like Odysseus to answer my first question, though, assuming I understood his correctly.”

I don’t have a clue what that question is/was. It seems like you are mistaking “lobbing insults” with “asking questions.” I didn’t see any real question presented.

Comment by OdysseusVL Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:41 pm
Uh-hem!
A majority of Democrats are opposed to this too.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:42 pm
Hoffman has been flogging the issue that he and his consultants thinking Giannoulias won’t beat Kirk. Is there any evidence this approach is gaining traction?

Low-attention voters won’t pay attention to the message.

And party activists largely find the message annoying.

Democrats have won nine of the last ten U.S. Senate races in Illinois. Hoffman claiming a statewide elected official is unelectable seems self-serving and contradicted by the evidence.

At what point will Hoffman stop using a campaign message that isn’t working?

I wrote a letter to Hoffman on Prairie State Blue.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:42 pm
And Independents. (Thank you, V-Man!)

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:44 pm
What exactly is the GOP trying to prove with this poll? That fear-mongering procures votes? Quinn should be applauded for rising above their screaming and intimidation.

The question posed is biased because we already have terrorists housed in Illinois prisons. As reported on yesterday’s blog: “According to data provided by Traci L. Billingsley, spokeswoman for the U.S. Bureau of Prisons, federal facilities on American soil currently house 216 international terrorists and 139 domestic terrorists. Some of these miscreants have been locked up here since the early 1990s. None of them has escaped. At the most secure prisons, nobody has ever escaped, period. Of the total number, 35 [terrorist] inmates are housed in federal prisons in Illinois.”

Comment by Deidre Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:44 pm
===A majority of Democrats are opposed to this too. ===

No. It’s a plurality.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:44 pm
===What exactly is the GOP trying to prove with this poll? ===

The IL GOP didn’t pay for this poll.

Take a breath and stash the partisanship, please. You apparently saw GOP in the post and assumed the poll was biased.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:47 pm
It seems like the poll should ask if Illinois voters support the federal government incarcerating prisoners, including gang leaders, rapists, organized crime members and serial killers in Illinois?

If a bunch of people oppose the federal gov’t incarcerating domestic criminals in Illinois, does this change the interpretation of the data saying people oppose incarcerating terrorists in state too?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 4:49 pm
Apples and Oranges, Carl.

Comment by 10th Indy Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 5:46 pm
The problem isn’t the poll question, it’s that the first reaction is to torpedo a plan that helps Illinois for political gain. This is just another case of the GOP’s obstructionist strategy totally disregarding the effect on actual people. Opening this prison will bring a lot of jobs to a community that is struggling in the middle of a recession. To politicize it and try to stop it is really just appealing to the worst in the Republicans base. This is a smart move by Quinn, take a languishing heap and use it to create a bunch of jobs.

Comment by Studious Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 5:57 pm
Odysseus, I just saw your 4:35, and my 4:11 response applies. (And thank you, BTW, for “defending” my handle. Everyone’s been using their own today as far as I can tell so I haven’t had to say anything.)

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 6:39 pm
David Hoffman spent four years and millions of dollars “inspecting” corruption in City Hall and came up virtually empty-handed.

Hoffman couldn’t find a gallon of milk on a dairy farm.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Nov 17, 09 @ 7:05 pm