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* So, how much of a threat is Patrick Hughes to Mark Kirk? Not much so far…
Kirk 41
Thomas 3
Hughes 3
Arrington 2
Martin 2
Lowery 1
Zadek 1
Other cand. (Vol.) 1
Undecided 46
Yes, the undecideds represent 46 percent of the vote, but that 41-3 Kirk-Hughes lead is gonna be incredibly tough to overcome, to say the very least. According to the Tribune poll, just 8 percent of voters have heard enough about Hughes to rate him.
Even Hughes’ own claimed recent polling shows he’s in serious trouble. From a press release…
A recent survey conducted on December 9th and 10th by Wilson Research Strategies of 600 likely Republican primary voters, shows the race for Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat is largely undecided. 63% of voters indicated that they are undecided about who they will vote for in the February 2nd Primary. 28% of voters indicated they were leaning towards Congressman Mark Kirk and 5% were leaning towards Hinsdale developer Patrick Hughes. Looking closer at the numbers only 7% of voters polled indicated that they were Definitely voting for Kirk while 2% indicated they were Definitely voting for Hughes. No other candidate polled higher than 1%.
Hughes does go on to claim this, however…
When information was given to the voters about Mark Kirk’s support for Cap and Trade support for Hughes surges to 47% and the support for Kirk drops to 13%
Kirk flip-flop explained. You don’t need a weather man to know which way that wind blows.
Tribune crosstabs…
Kirk is even leading among “very conservative” voters. That could change if Hughes can get his act together, but so far he hasn’t. Hughes sent out a single mailer to quite a few GOP voters a week or so ago, but that won’t get him very far. Even interested voters will only look at a mailer for a few seconds before tossing it in the garbage.
“Thinking now about Senate candidate Mark Kirk - compared to your political beliefs, do you think Kirk is too conservative on the issues, not conservative enough, or do you mostly agree with him on the issues?”…
From the pollster…
Voter composition in a primary can change over time. The current poll yielded 76% of likely voters who describe themselves as conservative, 37% very conservative, up from the previous results.
In four previous GOP primary polls, Jan., ’08, Dec. ’07, March ’06, and Feb. ’06, total conservatives ranged from 64% to 66% including 21% to 26% very conservative. Who is on the ballot may affect composition of voter turnout. But it is also likely that national politics is having an effect on elections this year.
So, the GOP electorate is getting more “very conservative” than in years past, but it’s still probably not enough to defeat Kirk in a primary with anyone in this field.
Conservative polling history…
Notice that the number of Republicans who once defined themselves as “moderate” dropped to 29 percent. That is partially because so many of those people left the party.
From the Tribune story…
Nearly half of voters who call themselves conservatives said they are undecided in the contest. About the same number of conservative voters said they did not know when asked if Kirk’s ideology was too conservative or not conservative enough.
The Hotline weighs in…
But Hughes’ candidacy represents an emerging, and very real, challenge for GOPers: In an era of tea partiers, the centrist Kirk has to move to the right to win a primary. Those moves have already cost Kirk, as Planned Parenthood and environmental groups have repudiated him for recent statements. Conservative challengers to more centrist favorites in NH, FL, OH, CO and other states could make those favorites move to the right.
Dems have been hammering Kirk for his rightward move, and they stand ready to do the same for the more moderate candidates in other states. Kirk has a big lead, and one has to wonder whether he needed to leap so quickly to his right, given his lead in the primary. Other centrists should look to their own poll results to see just how much of a threat conservative candidates really are; it might make their general election mission of appealing to centrist voters all that much easier.
The Hill…
Kirk, whose centrist positions on certain issues have led to some speculation about his primary vulnerability, is not over 50 percent. But no other candidate appears to have asserted him- or herself as a strong alternative with a month and a half to go in the primary.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:21 am
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As a Naval officer, certainly knows his next move is to tack left to the center.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:29 am
This cannot help Hughes with the right wing senators in DC. This ballgame is OVAH!
Comment by Bakersfield Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:37 am
Pat Hughes is actually very good on the stump. People who hear him, like him.
The problem is I’m not sure this rookie fully appreciates that only a tiny percentage of GOP primary voters actually ever go to a Republican event.
Hughes needs to get out of his comfort zone and take some risks. He’s got nothing to lose. He needs to make some press beyond stories about how he’s barely registering in the polls.
Hughes needs a real press person and a much more aggressive campaign all around.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:37 am
1. The conservative movement is more blog than bite.
2. The far right’s take over of the party will help Kirk in the general becaues alot of the former moderates in the party are now democrats or independents which means Kirk has a big piece of the democratic vote waiting to vote for him.
3. I am not convinced that mark has won yet, but his record has been out there for 5 months and there have been no bites from national conservative or tea party folks against him.
4. The navy/foreign policy hawkishness is I think giving conservatives something to reassure them about him.
Comment by shore Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:40 am
We’re talking Illinois GOP here. While they pine conservatively, they vote moderately.
This poll demonstrates that once again.
All this bloviating about how the GOP is being taken over by loonies, is even loonier.
The GOP wants to win a senate seat for the first time in a decade. They see Kirk doing that for them. At this point, a majority of Illinois GOP primary voters don’t give a fig what Kirk has done in the past, because they see him winning in the future.
And it looks like they are correct, doesn’ it?
If we end up with a Kirk/Jackson race in February, the GOP will win in a walk. If we end up with a Kirk/Giannoulais race in February, they still have an excellent chance.
The Illinois GOP is willing to win as badly as the Illinois Democrats were willing to win with Blagojevich in 2006.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:59 am
Mark Kirk is in excellent shape at this point. Also, FWIW over the weekend Rasmussen came out with a poll that shows 51 % of Illinoisans are against the idea of moving Gitmo terrorists to Thomson versus 39% in favor. When one sees the breakdown percentage of Republicans and non- affiliated voters who oppose the move it suggests that Mark Kirk was not off the reservation when he came out strongly and early against the move. Even if Thomson is a done deal he probably secured more votes due to his stance than he lost.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/illinois/51_in_illinois_oppose_prison_for_guantanamo_terrorists_in_their_state
Comment by Responsa Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 1:03 pm
responsa, I posted that poll last week.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 1:05 pm
Sorry, Rich. This one I saw and linked is dated Saturday. If it was already posted here I missed it.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 1:09 pm
It was part of the rest of the Rasmussen poll. They just highlighted that one aspect on Saturday. Numbers were already released, and were discussed here.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 1:10 pm
So the tea-bagger crowd isn’t a serious force even in a GOP primary. Doesn’t that give the “liberal press” permission to stop over-hyping their significance?
Comment by Will Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 1:34 pm
===Doesn’t that give the “liberal press” permission to stop over-hyping their significance? ===
When the GOP candidates stop kow-towing, yes. lol
Just sayin…
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 1:35 pm
This poll is good news for conservatives. It shows that the majority of Republicans don’t support Rep. Kirk. At least 55% of the Republicans should unite and vote for Don Lowery, the conservative, in that race, who has the most political experience, since he was a state’s attorney and a judge.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 1:36 pm
Hughes can’t win. The party is full of conservatives but most voters don’t know Hughes. He has never held any office. The way for conservatives to build credibility is to hold lower offices and move up the chain. Voters in both parties want to vote for people they know.
Unless Hughes can spend about $3 million of his own money starting now on top notch commercials, he won’t win.
Comment by Good Government Guy Tuesday, Dec 15, 09 @ 11:23 am