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The Hotline (via Archpundit) has more results from that Post-Dispatch poll.
Blagojevich 52%
Oberweis 33%Blagojevich 57%
Gidwitz 22%
According to Larry, Oberweis has a 28 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval, while Gidwitz has an 8 percent approval and a 9 percent disapproval.
As Larry points out, Topinka is the only one who holds Blagojevich under 50.
Why didn’t the Post-Dispatch release these numbers? Strange.
Ryan asks: Separated at birth?
I know a lot of people despise Don Stephens, but, with a few caveats, I tend to side with Mary Laney on this one.
What happened to the train to (almost) nowhere?
“I’ll no longer accept donations from auditor, ethics chief,” Stroger says. How upstanding of him.
This is a midday politics open thread.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 12:33 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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Where’s Blagojevich vs. Brady?
Comment by anon Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 12:33 pm
A couple of remarks on the alleged CPS funding “crisis.”
Where is the $100 million going to come from…that is, the $93 million increase from the previous planned appropriation. Sounds like the state has plenty of money to play with when it become politically expedient. Sounds like we should be talking about a tax rebate for Illinois taxpayers too.
There are has been a reduction of 30,000 children in the Chicago public school population over the past three years. So there are fewer federal matching funds. But why whould this leads to a “crisis.” Costs should go down when the number of pupils goes down. Clearly, there are some financial management problems here.
Marilyn Stewart, CTU pres, says her web search revealed that the CPS has 102 departments, with administrators in those depts making six figure salaries. Unlike AFSCME, it looks like Ms. Stewart isn’t going to cave in and let Arne make a pension grab like the one Blago put over on AFSCME last year…or it least it looks like she’ll fight. And unlike Ford and GM, it looks like Arne and da Mare wouldn’t even consider cutting some of their porky management ranks.
I say, let them fund their own schools.
Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 12:54 pm
Hotline didn’t list Brady at all. Your guess is as good as mine.
Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 1:08 pm
So much for the self-proclaimed Oberweis juggernaut.
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 2:35 pm
Why does this hurt Oby? In this poll Judy is down by 8 with 76% of the people knowing who she is. Oberweis has 40% still who don’t know him. He is above 30% in the general Blago is in trouble. Oberweis has not run against Blago Judy is doing nothing but, so is Gidwitz. What do you think Fitzgeralds numbers against Carol Braun were at this time? Not even close to these.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 3:30 pm
Anon 3:30-
1. Obie’s internal numbers from the poll are downright nasty. Only 28 percent favorable, with 35 unfavorable. That imbalance is “toxic” as pollsters like to say. By comparison JBT was 45 favorable to 31 unfavorable.
2. With a 33% overall and a 28% “favorable,” Obie is getting only a small percentage of the “Anybody But Blago” vote, a conclusion confirmed by the fact that Obie is down 19% to Blago while JBT is down only 8%. It shows a big difference in their capacity to make up ground.
2. People DO know who he is, given his prior unsucessful runs for office. There was only a 15% undecided in his head to head with Blago. Even JBT had a higher undecided, and she’s a third term statewide.
Actually, I’m more impressed that Gidwitz is at 22% head to head. His downside is that the complete poll result, in which JBT obviously matches up against Blago much better than her primary opponents, makes his recent press release attack on JBT look a bit silly.
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 4:02 pm
I would like to see some Republican primary poll numbers. Everyone automatically assumes that JBT is going home with the win. I’m not convinced; I think Oberweis is going to smoke her.
Don’t get me wrong; I’d much rather have Rod running against Judy; I think that she’d be an easy win. Oberweis on the other hand could tell a good story to the voters.
We’ll soon find out.
Comment by B Hicks Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 4:34 pm
Would you consider allowing a place to post after each edition of the “fax”? You wouldn’t have to post the whole fax, headings alone would suffice. As long as there is a place to comment on specific topics. There isn’t always a proper place to do so on the blog. Just an idea.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 5:22 pm
People may not recognize Oberweis’s name, but if you asked people, “Would you vote for the guy who was in the helicopter ads in 2004?” People would know who you were referring to and they would have the same answer they did in 2004: NO!
Comment by Larry Horse Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 5:30 pm
Toxic ? you mean like hairdos numbers last month? 40-53? You can’t have it both ways.
JBT’s whole reason to get conservatives to vote for a liberal Republican was she could beat Blago whats the excuse now? Oberweis has only run in GOP primaries never has he had to reach out to Democrats I would not expect a Dem that knows his name to answer positive. Those numbers will change. Look at the breakdown of the poll heavily democratic and central IL is over sampled 214-151 over the collars. You sound like Bob Kustra and Loletta
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 5:30 pm
I’m curious, how much does a job like Rosemont pay? You’d think someone with the werewithall to do all he did in his late 20’s like Don Stephens did could have made a good deal more investing his time in the private sector. Unless of course he finds that having a convention center and hummel museum named after you is worth more money than all he could have made.
Comment by Rosejolojo Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 5:46 pm
A few random thoughts from someone who doesn’t have an elephant in this race.
About all this confirms is that it will be a tough race for any Republican. No surprise there.
But, at the same time, I wouldn’t start writing my next State-of-the-State speech if I were Blagojevich. His numbers have been remarkably stable (and not good) for well over a year now. That suggests that he need to use his $15 million for a street organization in Chicago and East St. Louis, rather than for media (public already knows him and doesn’t like him, so best to just concentrate on finding your voters and turning them out)
Topinka can win, but she needs to start taking things seriously. Bring in Hendren and the pros and politely tell the long time cronies to step aside. Spend every cent she can on the primary and gamble she can replace it for the general (winning big in the primary will bring in the money and credibility — a narrow win is as good as a loss)
Absent some miracle, none of the other Republican candidates can get through the primary and about all they can do now is decide if they want to try to torpedo Topinka. My guess is the Gidwitz and Brady decide they are better off running positive campaigns and building for a future run. Oberweis probably knows this is his last chance, so he could go nuclear, but he probably doesn’t have enough credibility to make anything stick.
All in all though, this is just the first of many polls we’ll see in the coming months. You can read into it anything you want, but frankly there aren’t any real surprises there.
Blago is vulnerable and can be gotten by a well-run campaign, but it’s no cakewalk.
Comment by Old Elephant Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 6:00 pm
The monthly tracking poll survey usa from January 20th Blagojevich job approval is 42 percent, disapproval is 53 percent.
The SPD poll was from the 16th to the 18th hummm.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 6:10 pm
42+ 53- !!! Those numbers are Toxic!
Comment by Reagan Democrat Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 6:21 pm
Wonder if anyone will try to get to the bottom of the Lee Poll and why it ran the way it did? Just another example of the overblown importance some attach to media polls.
Comment by Reddbyrd Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 6:43 pm
Oberweis gains more support everyday. Topinka loses support every day.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 6:54 pm
Did anybody make it to the Cook. County GOP Convention in Rosement? If so, please give us a full account: Which candidate hit a “home run”? Did anybody have a joke who stole the show? Which candidate bombed? Who came off as amateurish or boring? Whose campaign did the best job of advance and sign visibility??
Comment by Fearless Freep Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 7:56 pm
“Oberweis gains more support everyday. Topinka loses support every day.”
And Superman could beat up Spiderman! Seriously, if you are going to make claims, support them with SOMETHING. Since the numbers simply don’t support your claims, we may as well chalk it up to more fantasy…and the fact that The Milkman is your superhero of choice.
As for me, I will maintain my support for the candidate with a plan and with the actual policy ideas to make changes…Bill Brady. I would rather have a governor who has experience governing and an announced plan than someone who thinks victory lies in bashing the other candidates. Seriously, look at the issues and take a look at Brady’s contract…then decide.
Comment by the wonderboy Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 8:16 pm
I wonder what the poll numbers will be once this news is spread around in the next few months. This comes from my sister who works as a public health educator in a county health department in Illinois and I immediately forwarded it to all my co-workers with kids. I estimate this will return about $50 to $100 per month to my income that is currently being deducted from my paycheck (at my income level, this is like winning the lottery).
From my sister:
If you have [your daugher] on your insurance at work, you are most likely eligible to receive a rebate (per month) on what ever you pay to have her on your health policy. This program is called Kid Care.
Kid Care will soon become “All Kids” which income guidelines that will be even more broad. This transition should take place within the next couple of months.
Below is an website where you can apply. Look on the left side of the web page in the grey areas under Medical Programs. Even if you don’t think you qualify, our clinic manager said to APPLY ANYWAY. It is VERY common that people who are on the edge of qualifying get accepted. If you don’t qualify now, you WILL for All Kids, so be sure to apply again after it changes over.
If you apply for Kid Care and are accepted now, you will automatically be accepted and enrolled into the All Kids program. You can go to this
website to get more information regarding these programs.
http://www.hfs.illinois.gov/
If I hear of anything else, I’ll pass it along.
Take care!!
Comment by Larry Stevens Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 8:44 pm
The wonderboy:
Could you please tell me who is leading in Cook County township endorsements? I could have sworn it was Jim Oberweis greatly outbeating Topinka (and your guy Brady and Giddy have a COMBINED TOTAL of ZERO).
Driving around the Springfield area today, I saw tons of Oberweis signs and 2 Topinka signs. And once again your Brady and Giddy have a COMBINED TOTAL of ZERO.
Let’s look in Southern Illinois were I spent Christmas break.
Oberweis = TONS OF SIGNS
Topinka = No sign
Gidwitz = No SIGNS!
Brady = 1 SIGN
I heard it put best, and I believe it will go well to Topinka, Giddy, Rod, Brady, Martin, and everyone else…. when you mess with the best, you end up like all the rest. Rod and Judy Blagojevich, they may end up on trial. Giddy will go back home to make up. Brady to a Senate race in 2008 vs. Durbin. And Martin, heck, I dunno even know where he came from… maybe he should try running for Governor in Florida again.
Comment by Jeff Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 8:59 pm
Did anybody make it to the Cook. County GOP Convention in Rosement? If so, please give us a full account: Which candidate hit a “home run� Did anybody have a joke who stole the show? Which candidate bombed? Who came off as amateurish or boring? Whose campaign did the best job of advance and sign visibility??
Comment by Fearless Freep Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 8:59 pm
Ah yes, All Kids. The new I Save Rx. It’s a program that isn’t even fully developed, has no apparent source of funding, but is currently the Govenor’s number 1 passion. Rallies in all the ethnic communities and a push for pre-registration. Not actual registration, just pre-registration, on account of there’s no real program to register for yet.
Can anyone say “election year”?
Comment by cynically anonymous Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 9:08 pm
Yes.. Oberweis landed on top the convention center in a helicopter and brought everyone a gallon of milk. Alan Keyes was with him.
“Did anybody make it to the Cook. County GOP Convention in Rosement? If so, please give us a full account: Which candidate hit a “home runâ€? Did anybody have a joke who stole the show? “Which candidate bombed? Who came off as amateurish or boring? Whose campaign did the best job of advance and sign visibility??”
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 9:10 pm
Jeff
Whatever that is your smokin’, could you pass some over here?!
Ever wonder how many of the Obie signs are actually in place with permission from the owner (the state in most cases)?
I suspect the milkman swoops into a couple of meetings, writes a healthy check to the group and voila! and endorsement!
How many races does the man have to lose before people realizes he can’t win!
31% in 2002…..what 27% or something like that in 2004 and rejected in favor of Alan Keyes by the party later and as chairman. What’s next? Maybe an offer to run for U.S. Senate in the state of Alaska?! Give it up man….it’s only going to get worse the next two months!
See your man on CBS-2 Chicago tonight?! It’s on their website. Hilarious. Were those crickets I heard in the background before he actually responded to a question with “…uh….I’m not going to answer that right now…”
BRILLIANT!!!!!!!!!!! Now that’s governor material if I ever saw it!
Comment by anon Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 10:14 pm
Should he have just answered when he didn’t know what was asked? I saw it and I did not know what the number of the homosexual rights bill was. I thought it was HB101! Maybe he could be like the real governor and say stuff like “we will have keno pay for it” and then 48 hours later just flip?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 11:21 pm
Jeff-
Just a couple of points to share:
1. I have driven much of the state over the last three months and haven’t seen what you claim to have witnessed. In fact, I have only seen 3 Got Guv signs on I-55 between Springfield and Joliet, though I may have missed a couple. On the other hand, I have seen at least 10 in the same stretch for Brady…they are the red and blue ones that say B-R-A-D-Y, just so you know what to look for. That being the case, let me know how many signs are required to get elected…thought it was votes that we were concerned with.
2. Oberweis had the county/township endorsements in the last two campaigns he ran…and those ended up going very well for him. Again, let me know how how many county/township endorsements are required for election.
3. Still haven’t heard any solid policy talk out of The Milkman…or his supporters such as yourself. The silence regarding issues and policy will soon catch up to Alan Keyes number 2 and that fact alone will make it impossible for him to beat Blago should he make it that far.
4. What does that even mean “mess with the best…”? Seriously, that was like some bad movie line from 1984…did you get that from Iron Eagle 2 with Lou Gossett Jr? And are you seriously referencing The Milkman as the best? I think my head might explode…So would the rest mean that the others will end up beating him in the primary and then beating him again 2 years later? Don’t know whether to laugh or cry at such absurdity…
Comment by the wonderboy Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 12:22 am
Ditto, Cynically Anonymous. He is producing tons of literature with this new “initiative” with his name plastered everywhere. Just look at the on-line application and count the number of times his name is on it. Pathetic. So the state will be in hock for all this printing, postage, media plugs, etc, but no money to fund and no concrete plan on how it’s going to work. Take it from me, the people putting this together couldn’t write their way out of a paper bag and won’t take advice on fixing their mistakes
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 6:35 am
Hey wonderoy- I suggest driving the state again, he’s right!
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 8:21 am
Jeff
You don’t know what your talking about. Oberweis did not get the endorsements of the County/ Townships last time Jack! did. He got a few but the vast majority went to Jack! I understand that your not for Oberweis but this crap about the endorsments being nothing makes you sound like a first timer. Of course you want committeemen to carry your literature of course you want as many endorsments from counties and townships as you can get. Thats why all of the candidates are at the meetings or their represenatives are there. Some counties and townships only pass out literature of the endorsed candidate. Are you telling me you donn’t want the extra help for your campaign? If you said you would rather win a straw poll that means nothing over a township endorsemnt you have not been doing this for long and you won’t be. This is a primary race it is to win Republican votes of course you want as many Republican organizations to support you as possable. Getting on the blogs and badmouthing the other candidates shows your frustrated that your candidate is not doing so well but at least understand the process.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 8:36 am
The above is for wonderboy not Jeff
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 8:38 am
I am guessing that wonderboy is a Brady fan… yikes! Maybe in 2008 vs. Durbin, he’ll have a chance at getting more than a couple percent.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 11:00 am
Oberweis can put a sign on the Sears Tower for all I care. The general public does not trust him, as has been proven in multiple elections, and signing on with Roeser did not help. Look at the hate and viciousness streaming from the Family Taxpayer Network websites. If you want your state government (including the state police) run on that basis, by all means, vote for Oberweis.
Comment by Bubs Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 11:57 am
Jeff - those Oberweis signs in Springfield are all in front of rundown rental properties. For sure, he has the slumlord vote all wrapped up, just like Alan Keyes did (a lot of the same properties, too.)
Comment by Larry Stevens Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 5:24 pm
Cynically Anon 9:08 - If “All Kids” ends up like Medicare Part D, as you seem to be suggesting then that rotten Reagan-loving s.o.b. is doomed, DOOMED I say!
Comment by Larry Stevens Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 5:34 pm
Just a few comments for Anon 8:36
1. I never said that endorsements are not important, just that they don’t equal victory in the actual election. Believe me, I understand the importance of the endorsements, but to chalk them up to a victory at the polls is simply wrong…even a brilliant veteran such as yourself would agree with a stupid rookie like myself on that. The votes that I was referring to had nothing to do with a straw poll, I was referring to the primary…and I think (though I am a rookie who won’t be at this very long) that the primary does mean something.
2. I am a Brady supporter and have based that decision on the issues and policy statements, which are still noticeably absent from The Milkman’s campaign. Apparently, the republicans living in Hanover Township agree with me since they just endorsed Brady…I am learning, so bear with me…apparently these “endorsement” things are important. Well, there’s one for the candidate that I am voting for, and it’s even in an opponents backyard…WOW.
C. (Oops, I meant 3, but I am new to this and won’t be at it very long) Let’s be honest, the badmouthing on blogs is why they exist…for people to share their views and ideas. As far as I can tell, I haven’t said anything about any candidate that isn’t true or intended to be humorous. In fact, I have made positive comments regarding candidates other than Brady on other blogs if you are watching them all. You, on the other hand, seem to have a desire to make negative comments directed at me personally. That, my friend, is badmouthing…but I can deal with it, I am a rookie taking my knocks.
4. Actually, I am not frustrated at all with this campaign…especially after Wednesday night. While I truly think that the momentum is shifting and that Brady will be the surprise winner, I understand that he still has ground to make up. For the sake of the people of Illinois, I hope that he wins so that we don’t have to see another 4 years of Blago…and a veteran such as yourself should recognize that Oberweis simply cannot beat Blago in the general.
5. I just read about these guys named James Madison and George Washington. Apparently, they were involved in the birht of this “process” that you are referring to. The interesting thing about their views, however, is that they were against factions and parties in general…I think that they might have a little trouble with your understanding of the “process”, but that’s just the view of a rookie.
Comment by the wonderboy Saturday, Jan 28, 06 @ 2:56 pm
Just drove I-55 again…still see more Brady signs out than Got Guv…called my eye doctor to have that looked at.
Comment by the wonderboy Saturday, Jan 28, 06 @ 2:57 pm