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Another long setup.
First, let’s rerun the Tribune numbers I posted here last night, plus a few more.
Blagojevich 62
Eisendrath 18
Other 2
Undecided 18
Topinka 38
Oberweis 17
Gidwitz 11
Brady 8
Martin <1
Undecided 25
Birkett 27
Rauschenberger 20
Wegman 2
Bruckman 1
Mangieri 14
Giannoulias 10
Read the whole thing, but here are some excerpts from the Trib’s story:
Topinka, holding significant name recognition after winning statewide office three times, has gained 7 percentage points from a similar Tribune poll of GOP voters in October while Oberweis, who also has strong statewide name recognition, has picked up only 2 percentage points. Gidwitz, with a major TV ad budget, has gained 7 percentage points from the fall while Brady has picked up only 1 percentage point since then. […]
When Republican voters were asked to compare their own political beliefs to Topinka’s, 43 percent said they mostly agreed with her while 20 percent said she was not conservative enough and 5 percent said she was too conservative. […]
Gidwitz’s spending of more than $2 million has had some impact among voters. Now, fully 85 percent of voters recognize his name, yet a plurality-45 percent-has no opinion on whether they view him favorably or not. Brady, who has begun limited advertising, is known by 72 percent of the voters, but like Gidwitz, 45 percent have no opinion of him. […]
Oberweis also has voiced support for a referendum on the state ballot asking voters whether the state constitution should be amended to prohibit same-sex marriage. Fully 68 percent of GOP voters support such an amendment-including 86 percent of very conservative voters-while 21 percent do not support an amendment. […]
Only 35 percent of Democratic voters said Blagojevich has kept his 2002 campaign promise to end business as usual in Springfield, while 41 percent said he has broken that commitment. Democrats were also sharply divided-42 percent to 38 percent-on whether the state was headed in the right direction.
Barely half of Democrats-52 percent-said they would like to see Blagojevich re-elected, indicating that while there is appreciable unhappiness in the ranks with the current governor, many do not see Eisendrath as a viable alternative.
And for a little historical context, here’s an excerpt from the Tribune’s February 2002 gubernatorial poll:
[Jim] Ryan continues to hold a sizable lead, although O’Malley is gaining ground campaigning as the strong conservative. 49% prefer Ryan, down from 57% in January, while 18% prefer O’Malley up from 10%. Corinne Wood, campaigning as a moderate Republican who favors abortion rights, dropped to 18% from 21% in January, and her favorable rating has fallen below her unfavorable rating.
Analyze it.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 3:38 am
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Rich,
What about those internal polls you mentioned last night?
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 5:07 am
Blago has been out there taking a beating for three years. While much of it has been deserved, it’s obscured some accomplishments that will look good in TV ads for people who don’t follow state politics too closely (and there are many). That will give him a bump, along with Democrats returning to the tent when they realize that despite their personal hatred of Blago, when it comes to actual policy they have much more in common with him than any of the R’s (including Topinka).
Topinka, meanwhile, has basically been getting a free pass up until now, and it’s clear there’s no substance behind it. Note the Trib story a little while ago on her prison visit when she said she didn’t know how she’d pay for more guards. Huh? Maybe Gidwitz or Obie can get away with it, but Judy’s whole selling point has been her knowledge of how to run a government. That seems like a question basic enough that someone who ostensibly knows how to run a government should be able to answer it. When the press starts giving her the same treatment it’s been giving Blago for three years, she’ll start to slip.
All in all it probably adds up to Blago getting reelected. And given that several of his original constituencies will officially abandon him prior to the election, who knows what that will mean from a policy standpoint in term 2. If you think things are fractious now, my guess is it’ll only get worse. Chances are that Lisa Madigan inherits a complete mess in 2010.
Comment by Lovie Smith for President Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 5:57 am
We always have these Wild Cards in Illinois Politics…. sex, crime… makes things hard to predict. Odd considering we’re sober midwesterners.
Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 6:24 am
This is simple. Brady eats Oberwis vote. Gidwitz needs a new TV ad to pull out of the pack. Unless he does this, Judy wins. If Gidwitz goes negative, he will lose. Not cause the Hack hates negative, contray, hacks love a good negative ad, but because he is known by 85 % of the people but only getting 11% of the vote. When you go negative, it drives your own negatives up, so those 45% who have no opinion of him will soon get a negative opinion just from his own ads. Get the point? Oberweis has to do the whack job on Judy and hope it pays off. But I hear he is worried about Brady. According to these poll results, nothing I see would give me any concern about Brady. So dairy boy better unlash the cannon or his milk is going to turn sour! God, I love a good negative campaign!!
Comment by Political Hack Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 6:26 am
Who figures out these questions to ask.Why don’t someone put 100 people out on the street in various parts of the state[south of the Decatur line]in stores,street corners and bars with a single question put to 100 people each.If they election were held today who would you vote for?I think it would surprise a lot of people.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 6:26 am
Downstate is right !! What questions & where are they calling & really whom are they calling?? It might be quite a different matter & despite the “experts” view point & the big city paper poll. This election is going to be won down state with narrow margins & with those 18–25 “undecided” . The names may be out there but apparently the message isn’t real clear. It will be hard “R”’s & “D”’s that come out to vote … informed voters. Don’t discount anyone a few points either way & there you go. Besides who gets these calls anyway. I’ve got 2 phones & it never rings from a pollster. However a friend of mind did get one & they kept calling Brady —Bradley, that’s got to be good for a few points either way ?!
Comment by anon Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 6:50 am
I wonder how damaging that 20 percent who think JBT is not conservative enough could be in the primary. Especially if they all turn out.
On the other hand, the fact that only 5 percent
consider her too conservative may be a good sign for the general, making her an option for disgusted Democratic women, for example.
As to campaign tactics…I’m not an expert but have frequently heard that political success story Bill Clinton talk of focusing on the next election…and solely on the next election. If that’s what her campaign staff have ordered up,
perhaps we will see more specificity after the primary, in the general election, which, if she wins, will likely be, in effect, a race between two moderate politicians
with party label being almost irrelevant and corruption and fiscal management dominating the issues.
In any case, she has my vote. Nobody could be worse than Blago. Nobody.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 7:55 am
This is not hard to believe considering the Tribune has always had their pick in elections and they will go witht he local favorite. You cannot pretend to put an unbiased poll in the field and then hold your endorsement out there like a carrot. They will probably endorse JBT. Is it a real poll and endorsement or a self fullfilling prophesy. JBT has internal numbers not nearly as favorable to her cause. I have to believe this poll was heavily weighted in Chicago. The fact is 1/2 of the primary votes will be cast outside of chicago.
Another reason to ignore polls is the cross over is a complete unknown variable. Chicago Dems can’t cross over to help JBT. If they do Rod will win, but his margin will be embarassing for a sitting governor.
Downstate democrats have to decide to try to take out Blago now, or cross over and pick the best person for the job in Nov. Judy will not play to downstate democrats so she could get caught if they switch over in large numbers.
Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 7:59 am
I am voting for the guy with 8%, Bob Bradley, then when Bradley vacates his state senate seat, his brother, Ed Bradley, can leave his 60 Minutes gig and serve in Springpatch.
Seriously, this Brady guy blew his one chance at winning statewide - the Treasurer’s office.
Comment by Bob Bradley for Gov Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 8:04 am
I think Oberweis’ sinking number may be the unnoticed story here. He’s falling down to the rest of the pack, leaving an opportunity for someone to take him out.
Seems like the Milkman should read the writing on the wall and save his and Rosier’s money rather than lose a third time with a lower percentage than in his first two runs.
All that money, and depending on which poll you believe, only a 4% to 9% lead on Brady, who’s never run statewide before? Can’t be a good day in Aurora.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 8:30 am
The poll numbers don’t surprise me one bit. JBT is doing what she needs to win the primary- which is the election at hand. The Roddog is doing the same- there is no reason to debate EEE, that would only expose his weaknesses.
I agree with political hack- the milkman has to be the guy to go negative- but it will sign his fate with the Republican Party forever, if he ever wants *another* run for office. (Please just go away).
I think going negative on a woman candidate is very dangerous- and it probably backfires much more often than is successful.
My own plea to the GOP governor candidates: keep it clean, keep it professional, and continue to beat up our current Governor Blago. That way, we can actually change things in November. Don’t give the Dems anything else to use in the General election- they will frankly have plenty of ammo as it is.
Comment by roy slade Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 8:35 am
Polls are becoming more and more worthless. Who answers those calls anyway? And a good portion of the population are moving to cell phone only use. I don’t have time at 6PM to answer poll questions. I use caller ID and let all other calls go to the machine. Do the rest of you actually answer every call?
Comment by shelbyville Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 8:37 am
Looks like another homerun for GRod!
I would assume the AccordianGal teardown will start sooner now. Which will make GRod lead over her even bigger.
Anyone notice the Trib has done one less poll?
It is good to see that in the battle of the unknown Mangieri leads Obamarama
Comment by Reddbyrd Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 8:53 am
The fact that Eisendrath has 18% WITHOUT any major media campaign is impressive. What will happen when his ads hit the airwaves and more people learn about him ? The numbers can only go up……
Comment by Nancy Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 9:07 am
Unless someone declares as a write-in candidate and at least 500,000 people bother to write that candidate’s name in for Governor in the Democratic Primary, then Edwin Eisendrath IS THE ONLY ALTERNATIVE to Rod Blagojevich or the Republicans.
Polling may be useful to determine subjective choices, but this is NOT a subjective choice. You may have wanted to see someone else challenge Blagojevich in the Democratic Primary, but the cold, hard fact is that they didn’t. Should (Heaven Forbid!) Blagojevich win on March 21, his Republican opponent will have 7 1/2 months to hammer away directly at him and his pathetic record in office. Regardless of who the Republicans nominate, Rod’s poll numbers versus the GOP nominee will start to drop in the weeks after the primary, and will likely continue to collaspe until defeat comes in November.
Do Illinois Democrats want to risk another two decades of Republican control of the Governor’s office? If the answer is no, than Edwin Eisendrath is your only hope.
Comment by Randall Sherman Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 9:09 am
I’d love to see the cross tabs and internals on that poll. That said, the honest truth is that it doesn’t look like Brady’s catching fire like some of us young conservatives had hoped. There is still time before the election, but unless Southern Illinois was sorely underrepresented in the poll, the odds look pretty long for the Golden Boy….
Comment by HoosierDaddy Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 9:18 am
Blah, blah, blah! Get to the point people! It is too soon to really know what is going to happen next month. There are a couple major campaigns in both parties holding back their ad firepower until next month.
Those that have been doing all the ad buys have not gotten much in return. What these rich boys are doing is wasting their money. Sure, Gidwitz is known, but hey, few are buying. What these polls do show is spending vast amounts of money early in a campaign is flushing it down a toilet.
Eisendrath is the anti-Blagojevich. He will get an impressive total next month. Blagojevich can do nothing but be embarrassed regardless of how Eisendrath does. Even if Eisendrath loses, he still wins enough to start his Chicago Mayoral candidacy with high recognition on the issue of corruption. Edwin is going to be a winner.
JBT is the other winner. Sure, she has been getting a free ride, but she isn’t dumb enough to get off of it, and the Republicans want to win with her in November. She’s got it. Period.
Finally, face it, Illinois is not a conservative state. No matter how much one wishes it. There has been too many years wallowing in Socialism and schlupping along for folks to see the light yet.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 9:23 am
Eisendrath is gaining 5% per week without a paid media effort. At this rate in six weeks he’ll be at 48%. A major statewide ad push gets him over the top.
Comment by Buddy Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 9:28 am
The biggest problem for the republican party is that JBT is getting away with a free pass by bailing on debates and not addressing issues. If she wins, or party will be no better off four years from now and she proved that in her tenure as party leader. Judy has a real problem in November. She cannot motivate downstate republicans to work for her evidenced by her lack of any grass roots organization which is remarkable for a 3 time runner. The chicago folks will support her in the primary but she cant beat Rod in the general in Chicago. A Judy Win on March 21= 4 more years for Rod and he knows it.
Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 9:53 am
Eisendrath is going to be a “sleeper”. He may not beat Blagojevich in March but his large numbers will show Blago that he is in deep trouble within his own Party come November.
Judy should continue to play her “rope-a-dope” strategy just like Blago is doing with Eisendrath. If she opens her mouth, she has more to lose than she has to gain. She would be her own worst enemy. It is up to the other GOP contenders to knock her off of her perch. They are still wearing their “kid gloves” which will prove costly unless they realize that they had better quickly take them off.
Gidwitz financial expenditures have finally gotten him name recognition. His linkage with Rauschenberger was necessary for that. Now, Gidwitz needs to change his political ads to show “why” he is better than Brand X. Gidwitz needs to come out swinging at Judy. The majority of Illinois GOP voters want a moderate who will end the corruption and business as usual that has sickened us all. Gidwitz has all the things GOP voters want. He needs to educate them as to what he plans to do (ethics reform, fiscal restraint, etc.) and what he is all about.Otherwise, he is simply a product with name recognition but a product that nobody knows what it does nor why they need it. Time to change the television spots and to go into a JBT attack mode. Voters do not dislike negative political ads as long as they are “truthful” and they are not “emotionally driven”.
Oberweis needs to start slamming Judy’s record and presenting her failings or he is, once again, going to be left in the GOP political dust.
Brady needs to start running his television ads and quickly, especially in the Chicagoland area.
The most notable fact from this latest poll is that 25% of the GOP voters are still “undecided”. Thus, this shows that Gidwitz and Oberweis could still topple Judy Barr Topinka. Especially, a firm, no nonsense, GOP moderate that exudes sincereity and promises a new era of change in ethics in Illinois government and politics. That gubernatorial candidate will be a slam/dunk with the GOP voters on March 21st.
Comment by Beowulf Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 10:09 am
Well, well, well. After weeks of pro-JBT postings, Bubs gets the call from Rich Miller himself.
Although Bubs may be crowing that the Trib poll numbers justify his pro-JBT propaganda, the facts are that JBT HAS been destructive within the GOP and has elevated friendship with Democratic politicians over GOP party loyalty. Since the Governor is essentially the de facto leader of his state’s party, Bubs paints Judy critics who have the facts as “liars”. Bubs, please note the following:
1. Gidwitz was Judy’s State Party Finance Chairman, and was at her right hand when she made war on GOP leaders, such as Cook Co GOP Chair Murphy. Why did Gidwitz abandon Judy? The reason must not be pretty.
2. Judy has PUBLICLY ENDORSED Democrats against Republican candidates in the past, i.e. Congr. Lipinski over Republican Jim Nalepa, the latter having been endorsed by her when he ran for the nomination. Don’t you think Republican stalwarts have good cause to distrust having Judy in the Mansion?
3. You tout her 25+ plus years of public service….her record of actual policy accomplishments are quite slim, whether in the GA or as Treasurer. Someone wrote on this blog that it is always “Judy first” with her…disprove that point. Identify her policy achievements (or even her failed proposals that “should have been”). As Treasurer, has been little more than a trumped up bureaucrat, ever ready to help the Cellinis and other friends. What is the evidence she has been more?
4. She has NEVER been able to fashion a political organization of any substance. Her “team” has been Nancy Kimme, John Hoffman, Marty Kovarik, and Wally Slezak, in reverse chronological order. Jim Ryan had an army of lawyers and prosecutors in his efforts. Who backs Judy?
Address some of these questions, Bubs, if you can, or else your claim that the conservative line is fraudulent is, itself, a lie.
Comment by Bubs is a Phony Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 10:09 am
Randall,beo,buddy,et al
Eddie is NOT an alternative to the governor. Now someone is talking about mayor of Chicago. What a laugh!I can’t really blame him for trying. A nobody from nowhere looking for still another gov’t job has nothing to lose. Maybe if Hillary gets elected in ‘08 she can find something for him, unless Rod is the VP, that is. Don’t hold your breath waiting for the big media buy. Eddie is broke and even his mother has cut him off.
Maybe Randall’s “organization” can buy him some spots. Oh wait, they don’t have any money either.
Bring it on!
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 10:33 am
The Topinka Tattler posts again.
BIAP- Don’t forget- she recruited Andy Martin back to the state because she was afraid of Jack Roeser’s candidate…
Comment by Tin Foil Detector Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 10:35 am
Esquared can just go back to cooking school.
Comment by Reddbyrd Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 11:20 am
First off - questioning the poll is such bush-league. You know who questions the polls? People who aren’t getting the answers they like (and who don’t care that they are exposing themselves as people who don’t know what they’re talking about).
The 18% EE received is nice based on his little free press pops - but to suggest he’s getting 5% a week and thus should be near 50 by March 21 is so far beyond absurd, it can’t even see absurd in it’s rear view mirror.
18% in a two-person race with 6 weeks to go means you are very unlikely to draw the funding you need to compete. 18% in a two-person race means your office isn’t likely to get a lot of free press coverage. 18% in a two-person race means you will never see a debate, and are unlikely to ever be engaged by your opponent. 18% in a two-person race (and with a competitive primary on the other side) means you will, more and more, get treated like the marginal candidate that you are.
Comment by SenorAnon. Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 11:35 am
What does this mean? Does this poll say Rod is ahead of JBT?
Comment by Jack Barnes Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 11:44 am
Note to Bill: If Eisendrath is not an option (as you apparently contend), then what is the option for those Democrats who are convinced that the Governor will lose in November (besides supporting a Republican). Please feel free to explain that option to me and to everyone else.
I must admit the Illinois Committee for Honest Government does not have a huge campaign warchest. Would you suggest that the ICHG (and I as its Secretary/Treasurer) shake down local slumlords, as some believe certain memberS of the Chicago City Council do? (Just wondering.)
RANDALL SHERMAN
Comment by Randall Sherman Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 12:09 pm
Phony Baloney -
My Goodness, my Goodness, such a NastyGram. To give the benefit of the doubt, I will assume it all stems from a Bad Hair Day.
I have not even posted about the WGN poll numbers. They speak for themselves, and there are (and will be) lots of polls.
The swipes at JBT strike me as subjective, whiny, and insubstantial, except for the Lipinski thing, where we agree on the general principle, but I don’t know enough about the situation at the time. Jim Nalepa seems to be a nice enough guy, and passionate, but I don’t know where Nalepa stood with the small-minded “Destroy Judy Any Which Way We Can” crowd in those very contentious years, which (judging by the tone of your post) may have played into things.
As to JBT accomplishments, to avoid taking up space, I simply refer all to judyforgov.com, where, as a conscientious candidate, she has her accomplishments as Treasurer touted ad nauseam. They are not insubstantial.
Comment by Bubs Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 12:15 pm
Randall,
If democrats vote for the democratic candidate he won’t lose. As far as slumlords are concerned you would have to ask Ron Gidwitz about that.
By the way , no offense to your organization. We mostly agree on candidates. I just wish you would stifle your crusade against good old Rod.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 12:32 pm
And so the numbers come in and the sharks smell blood in the water. But a simple, common sense look at what voteres are thinking in the present moment (which could change) shows that JBT and Rod will be the nominees and both will truly start their campaigns after March 21st, when the rest have gone home, a couple of them much poorer for the experience.
Comment by Dem Voting R Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 12:45 pm
Here’s what Bill Brady had to say in an email he sent out :
“The Tribune poll tonight shows us right in the pack. This race is far from over. We’re in this race, and we’re in this race to win.
As voters take a close look at the Republican candidates over the next six weeks, they’re going to see one candidate who has the spirit, the consistent record on mainstream conservative issues and the determination to win this election. I am that candidate, the candidate who has the momentum throughout Illinois, the candidate who represents a new generation of Republicans and the best candidate to beat Rod Blagojevich in November.
Voters right now are just beginning to focus on this election and to evaluate the candidates and their positions.
As they get to know where Judy Baar Topinka stands on critical issues such as abortion and taxes, they’re going to look at me and see that I am the candidate who has articulated a strong mainstream conservative message, who can defeat Rod Blagojevich and who can rebuild the Illinois Republican Party.
The party has already rejected Jim Oberweis four times over the last four years, and the Tribune polling and our own internal polling show him stagnant. Ron Gidwitz has seen only slight movement in his numbers despite spending millions of dollars on television advertising. With the large undecided vote and the general name recognition for those who have run statewide previously, my campaign is poised to surge forward in the coming weeks.
I know my support is growing because of our hard work and strong message. I see it in the field everyday, I see it in the growing number of endorsements I am receiving throughout Illinois.”
For most of the voters, it is early for them to be thinking about the primary. A more telling poll will be at the end of this month.
I don’t see where 8% signifies that he is “right in the pack.” Sounds more like wishful thinking.
Comment by Nearly Normal Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 1:04 pm
hold on……..the real polls will be taken all day on March 21. We’ll just have to see how it turns out! RGod and his guys can keep believing what they are seeing, fine by me, but I think they are in for a big surprise! Rgod’s poll numbers showing a wide lead are comforting I’m sure but the other side of that same poll says almost 50% of the dems are not happy with him. EdWIN does need to get started with the recognition thing and a lot can and will happen 3 weeks out from election day. Its all a matter of timing and I second guess with the best of them, however, nobody has called from either side asking for my advice so they probably know what they are doing better than me or anyone else blogging. We’ll just have to wait and see but I’ll bet I’m not nearly as nervous as RGod and his crooked bunch are. I’ve got nothing to lose and they have everything to lose. Which is more?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 1:34 pm
Brady is the only one that is moving anywhere in the polls. JBT of course it a force to be reckoned with. Gidwitz seems to be in a rut. However what is most distrubing is that 17% of even 600 Repubs supported the milk wacko. Hopefully after March 21st no matter the outcome of the elections Mr. Oberweis will return to the diary and not come out again. Kudos to tim for having a successful business that gives back to the people that work for him. The dead horse that Mr. & Mrs. Patrick ride in Southern Illinois needs to be buried!!!!
Comment by SouthernILRepub Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 1:45 pm
not “tim”, should be him
Comment by SouthernILRepub Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 1:46 pm
Look. Let’s face it. EE is doing no better than any Tom, Dick or Susie who had a few dollars to pay for 10,000 signatures to get on the ballot. There is a 10-15% anyone-but-Blago vote out there and, basically, that’s all he’s got. 18% means that he doens’t have a serious campaign and voters will not take him seriously. He hasn’t raised any money so there won’t be an ad blitz. No paid media, no message. Besides, he doesn’t really have a story to tell.
Comment by anon Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 4:08 pm
JBT, the GOP saviour, the anointed one. She is going to clean up Illinois. That money-grabbing Rod is washed up. She is going to throw him and his pay to play cronies out of office. Judy, along with Deputy Governor Kimme are going to run this state like it is supposed to be run. Please!
I would welcome a run between Judy and Rod; it would be a lot less work.
My advice to Judy: come up with more HPL money, you’re going to need it.
P.S. Buddy, send your vote and afscme’s vote EE’s way, or Judy’s way for that matter. We don’t need it.
Comment by B Hicks Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 4:21 pm
prediction
primary blago 72% ee 28%
topin 38% obie 19% gid 15% brad 28% ruasc 55% birk 35% others 10%
general election topinka 51% blago 47% others 2%
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 4:23 pm
I read these comments from time to time and Senor Anon is the first one I’ve read in a while that’s right on the mark. The only thing that he left out is that campaign staffers lose their energy and so does the entire campaign.
Comment by anon Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 4:49 pm
I read these comments from time to time and Senor Anon is the first one I’ve read in a while that’s right on the mark. The only thing that he left out is that campaign staffers lose their energy and so does the entire campaign.
Comment by Mandy Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 4:52 pm
As indicated above, the only polls that matters is the Primary and then the general election. So pull a democratic ballot in march and cast a vote for EE. Then in November vote for whomever you want. Vote against our ethics challenged governor in March!
Comment by "B Team" Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 4:52 pm
I hate to disappoint you, SO. Ill. Rep. but Brady has moved only one point in the polls. Judy and Milkman have both moved up more than he has.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 5:36 pm
Lovie Smith for President totally gets it. Senor Anon gets it too. Anybody know who these folks are? Nice to see thoughtful analysis instead of the usual bile.
Comment by Pete Giangreco Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 6:57 pm
Looks like ee has no traction at all. I used to think Topinka would give Rod the best race, but I dont think so anymore. I’m not sure how she outflanks him ie. outsider? no., not courrupt? no as she helped build the system plus she has made one substanative remark on what she would do. Her press conferences have been a disaster as she really struggle with the facts. Looks like Rod for 4 more
Comment by tough guy Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 8:16 pm
Sorry….that should be “has not made ONE SUBSTANTIVE remark” My fingers had a blow-out.
Comment by tough guy Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 8:23 pm
So Brady is finished after one poll just after two that for some reason just happened to exclude him. Polls taken over a weekend always lean to the left because conservatives are not around to be polled. Then add in that the article says that it’s a “likely” voter poll then the caption says it’s a “registered voter” poll is very interesting. Does the Tribune know there is a difference? The Tribune has never liked 2A supporters. The poll is far from accurate and Brady is far from single digits and Judy isn’t as high as 38.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 10:04 pm
Tough Guy - Yes her campaign has really been a disaster.. She leads by 20 pts!! LOL
Comment by Tony Soprano Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 12:32 am
My analysis: Topinka stagnates while her competitors gain in the polls. I agree that she’s coasting, and she better start doing something quick if she doesn’t want to be left behind. An undecided 25% doesn’t go to whoever’s left in the dust.
I’m voting for Gidwitz in the primary, because he seems much more substantial than *any* other candidate I see in the field. I don’t expect a lot of company. I never thought Oberweis had a chance, but it just might happen.
Comment by Mad Cou Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 1:43 am
10:04
Don’t give up. Oberweis can’t win. He gave in to some bad stuff from bad people, so what. Brady is the true POSITIVE Reagan Conservative. He can do it!!
Comment by Anon Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 2:16 am
First of all, with the margin for error, I’d say there are several in the hunt. And, while I agree this didn’t show as much movement for Brady as some others have, I can’t see how one can claim Obe has moved at all? Downward I assume you mean?
Comment by YNM Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 9:04 am
“Polls taken over a weekend always lean to the left because conservatives are not around to be polled.”
That is too funny. I’ve read some good poll-conspiracy theories - but this one is one of the finest.
I know…Conservatives are at church (or hunting!) all weekend - while Liberals are at home recovering from their abortions and sex-change operations. Darn these biased major newspaper polls!
This is like the flip-side of the argument that “Dean is doing better than the polls state, because Dean supporters are more likely to be young, hip, cell-phone only people.”
Thanks for the laugh.
Comment by SenorAnon. Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 12:08 pm
JBT is in trouble if 50% of people who call themselves conservative and pro life say they back her. As Treasurer nobody asked what her views were they did not get out there now when her views are known(and they will get out no matter if she blows off debates or not) she will lose a huge chunk of those voters. Now that the numbers have Brady where he has always been the conservative grassroots groups will rally around Oberweis, they have been waiting to see if the Brady campaign were telling the truth for the last month about their poll numbers etc.. What the last 2 polls showed was that he did not show up in enough answers to be included. If Brady wants a future in statewide politics he had better sit and think about stepping aside and backing Oberweis. The heat will be on for him to do that.
Comment by Reagan Democrat Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 3:26 pm
Senor, you don’t know much about polling do you.
As far as rally around Oberweis, sorry I like him but they sure have not done it yet and they sure have had a lot of opportunity.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 5:19 pm
Look at how many Dems stay home during the Primary. This will be a lead indicator as to how Blago will do in the General. My projection is that the Dems will stay home in the General, like they did in 1994, unless the dead come out to vote in Chicago.
Comment by kenner Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 8:48 pm
Anon 5:19
The reason you have long primaries is too see who can win and solidify the base. The Grassroots groups sat back and waited to see what campaign was better. That and for the last 2 months the Brady campaign blew smoke up their rearends by saying he would raise 3 million or he would spend 5 million in the primary. That his poll numbers had him moving and that he was the only one moving. All that was a lie. Now the grassroots will rally around one candidate. Oberweis. He is the only one who can catch JBT. The trib said it in the poll story the conservatives split between Oby and JBT not Brady. The Immigration part of the poll shows 68% of the GOP voters would not vote for Brady because of the Matricular counsular card and the reduced college tuition rates for Illegals. Wait till they find out about JBT supporting Illegals having a drivers licence!!! That one will drop her 20 points alone. As Tom Roeser wrote today if Brady stays in and Oberweis loses Brady is finished politically. The majority of GOP primary voters are conservatives, judy’s views will be well known by then. Oberweis has to now energize the base by getting on TV and in the mailboxes. After that the numbers will take care of themselves
Comment by Reagan Democrat Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 11:15 pm
Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Edwin Eisendrath’s Campaign
I’ve looked at what Edwin Eisendrath has been doing in the Illinois Gubernatorial Primary with interest. He came to the Naperville Democrats January fundraiser, and his staff came to both endorsement meetings of DuPage Democracy for Illinois, where he…
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