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Rasmussen: Giannoulias 40, Kirk 39

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Illinois
Polls

* Rasmussen has a new poll. Previous results from Rasmussen’s polls conducted June 7, April 28, April 5, March 8 and February 3 are in brackets…

Kirk: 39 [42% 46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]

Giannoulias: 40 [39% 38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]

Other: 9 [7% 5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]

Unsure: 12 [12% 12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]

Not a huge amount of movement since last month but Kirk’s overall trend is downward since late April. He peaked during the time that Giannoulias’ bank went under. Giannoulias tanked a bit back then, but hasn’t really come back yet, even though Kirk had a very bad June. This thing will be close for a while. From the pollster…

The Illinois Senate race remains a virtual tie, but Republican Mark Kirk’s support appears to be trending down. […]

This is the first time Kirk’s support has ever fallen below the 40% mark. From February through June, he consistently attracted from 41% to 46% of the vote.

This marks the first time since March, however, that the Democrat has risen out of the 30s. His support against Kirk since February has ranged from 37% to 44%. […]

Kirk attracts 79% of the Republican vote while 73% of Democrats back Giannoulias. The Republican holds a two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But one-third of those voters are not committed to either major party candidate.

Favorability…

Giannoulias is viewed Very Favorably by seven percent (7%) of Ilinois voters and Very Unfavorably by 21%.

Seven percent (7%) also have a Very favorable opinion of Kirk, while 20% regard him Very Unfavorably.

The Democrat’s numbers have changed little from a month ago, while the Republican’s favorability ratings have fallen slightly. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Comments

It’s a negative for Kirk, the longer alexi hangs around, the better the chance reinforcements arrive for him from dc. Obama has campaigned for the senator from california-boxer about 4 times and done I think 3-4 fundraisers for her. If he put that energy behind Alexi, I think it would get tougher for kirk and that only happens if alexi is close.

Comment by shore Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 1:21 pm
Alexi may have peaked too soon

Comment by dancer Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 1:23 pm
Democrats who are hoping that a ‘nationalization’ of this election will boost their prospects here in Illinois will probably be surprised (and skeptical) of the numbers on healthcare and immigration. The idea that a pro-repeal/pro-enforcement candidate is “too conservative” or “out of the mainstream” for this state is just flat out wrong, and Democrats who continue to believe that do so at their own risk.

Comment by grand old partisan Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 1:31 pm
Given Alexi’s negatives, an alleged big hitter like Kirk should have knocked him out by now. Instead, Kirk has been hitting himself in the head with a hammer.

I imagine there are more than a few GOPers who are kicking themselves for not challenging Kirk in the primary. In a statewide race, he has a glass jaw.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 1:36 pm
More of a question than a comment:

Has Alexi released his fund raising numbers for the last filing period, ending June 30th, yet?

I ask because it sets the stage for how these numbers will likely swing in the next few months.

Comment by A.B. Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Seems from general questions that they talked to more republicans than democrats especially on healthcare and immigration.

Comment by Change is on the way Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:04 pm
- grand old partisan - Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 1:31 pm said:

“Democrats who are hoping that a ‘nationalization’ of this election will boost their prospects here in Illinois…”

That strategy is contrary to the one coming out of DC by the Democrats. The word is to localize the election because of the kinds of numbers. I’d love to see the senate race revolve around national issues instead of these dork-stepping statements by both candidates. The poll numbers cited above would be much different, methinks.

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:05 pm
“You go slow. You, uh… You be gentle. I mean, it’s… it’s not a one-way street, you know — how you feel and that’s all. It’s how the state feels, too. Don’t press. If the electorate feels… anything for you at all, you’ll know it.”
– James T. Kirk, “Charlie X” (1967)

http://twitter.com/CaptKirk4Senate

Comment by Capt. Kirk for Senate Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:10 pm
What no LeAlan Jones? He’s a ballot qualified candidate that voters WILL see on the ballot in November.

Wasn’t there something from Nate Silver saying Rasmussen methodology was a little suspect?

Comment by Fundi Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:24 pm
Grand Old Partisan (and Rasmussen) — Rather than asking if people want to repeal “health care reform” try asking if people want to repeal what’s in it.

While conservatives have done an incredibly good job of lying about the reform’s provisions (”death panels” anyone?), the facts are that most people support the real elements of the bill such as an end to rescission, extending dependent eligibility, etc.

The Trib just had a story yesterday about a high school girl who was dropped from her parent’s policy because Blue Cross/Blue Shield discovered she had an overbite when she was 8 and her parents didn’t “disclose” it even though it had no effect on her current situation.

The health care reform bill makes dropping her for such a normal thing illegal.

You (and Mark Kirk, and Bob Dold, and Adam Kinzinger, and Joe Walsh….) are advocating repealing that — meaning she’d again be kicked off her parent’s insurance for essentially no reason.

Good luck with that.

Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:26 pm
No surprises.
If anyone thinks Obama is going to help here and point to California, well today’s polls for Boxer show that the President hasn’t helped her. This is his home state, but Boxer’s numbers don’t give one any reason to believe that the President is going to show up in Chicago for Giannoulias and risk getting bogged down in our Blagojevich trial, Triple J Senate seat sale, or fiscal insolvency issues.

The national press would love to confront Obama over our state messes just to see a reaction from him. Has Obama patched up things with Giannoulais after he tried throwing him under the bus for Lisa Madigan, btw?

This race stinks, and it is going to stink all the way to November. No one is going to win.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:48 pm
This Ras poll is garbage because it fails to include all the ballot qualified candidates.

Comment by PFK Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:51 pm
“Seems from general questions that they talked to more republicans than democrats especially on healthcare and immigration.”

Actually, there are these folks called ‘Independents,’ who are trending more and more in the GOP’s direction, even in Blue States like Illinois. As I said earlier, Democrats who want to continue believing that such positions are “too conservative” or “out of the mainstream” have their heads in the sand.

……

Cincinnatus, you are right: nationally, the Dems are hoping that Tip O’Neal’s old adage remains true in 2010. But locally, many Dems realize that local politics are not in their favor this year, and a debate on national, ideological issues may be their only salvation.

…..

Rob_N – The law itself is longer than War & Peace, so there is something of a logistical challenge involved in polling on “what’s in it.” Would you participate in a poll that required the better part of your day to complete??

You are also right in that there are some provisions in the bill that have popular support, and the GOP has sought to distort and even mislead people about it’s contents. And it probably would be best if the GOP tried to modify instead of completely repeal the existing law. That’s all regrettable, but its how the game is played. Democrats made a big fuss about Bush’s “tax cuts for the wealthy,” even though the cuts were actually across the board and the wealthier brackets saw percentage of the total tax burden increase under Bush. And just as it was for them in ’06 & ’08, “repeal” makes a more urgent rallying cry that “consider possible changes to.” I realize that “you did it too” isn’t the most admirable defense, but let’s disabuse ourselves of the notion that Republicans are always up to dirty tricks and the Democrats are morally righteous, shall we?

Comment by grand old partisan Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:53 pm
PPP started including LeAlan Jones. It would be nice if Rasmussen followed suit. Other is clearly trending up in their polls, and I’m sure it would jump a couple more points to be in line with PPP if an actual name and party identification were given.

Rasmussen is a very legitimate polling firm. Despite the complaints from some Dems that it skews conservative, it’s usually one of the most accurate polls. However, it’s definitely not accurately reflecting support for the Green Party candidate, and they should really start listing him.

Comment by Sacks Romana Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 2:58 pm
It tells me that, regardless of how things are going elsewhere, the GOP isn’t walking away with ANYTHING in Illinois. They might win, but it is going to be down to the wire. A GOP bloddbath in Illinois? I think not.

Comment by the dark horse Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:10 pm
Polls are hard to decipher this year. I have a somewhat favorable opinion of Giannoulias, or at least find him likeable, and I think he’s unqualified and a crook to boot. It’s all relative, I guess.

Comment by Excessively Rabid Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:14 pm
i wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers track this close for the rest of the election cycle.

it’s cute that the third party aficionados are out in force, but it’s hard to see how they compete in a race that is already airing television ads with more to come. lealan jones won’t be a factor in this race, any more than the other independent candidates.

and does anyone believe that rod blagojevich can mount a FOUR MONTH DEFENSE? that’s pretty much what it will take to make this trial influence the election. not that anyone is interested. i went to three functions over july 4th and not a single person talked about this trial. opps…

Comment by bored now Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:21 pm
Dear Natasha Korecki,

Thank you for your court reporting on the Blago blog. I am reading it almost as much as Capitol Fax.

Almost.

Dear Governor Quinn,

For the love of God, just tell human service providers what their cuts are and stick with it. It is hard enough to do the work with annual cuts and massive payment delays. A little stability would be a gift right now.

Comment by Montrose Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:25 pm
oops. wrong post.

Comment by Montrose Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:26 pm
Rob_N, you’re wrong about Rep. Kirk. Although he voted against the health care bill, he said that he doesn’t support repealing it.

Comment by Conservative Veteran Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:32 pm
Which one–Alexi or Kirk–has more surprises yet to come?

Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:33 pm
Sacks, Rasmussen’s accuracy is actually about average if you track major races back to 2000. He had an outstanding 2004 and a mediocre 2006-08. Silver & co. downgraded them in their ratings recently. Also, the accuracy on final calls is not the major complaint about Rasmussen. It is the way it almost always has a 4-5 point Republican lean until an election gets close, then tightens up. This lean seems to come from how Rasmussen choses its “likely voter” pool (ie who they think will vote, rather than sampling the populace generally) but no one can be sure because Rasmussen refuses to release details on its methodology.

Comment by Berkeley Bear Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:36 pm
Time for a press release stating that “These numbers only go to prove that the Campaign has not only met–but has exceeded–all of it’s goals and objectives for this Quarter because we were intentionally trying to drive the numbers and our overall support DOWN. More information regarding this new and fascinating srategy will be released over the next few weeks in various forums across the State.”

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:53 pm
Woops. Sorry. Seems that shore has already got that spin rolling with his first post.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:55 pm
Woops again. Mea culpa. Misunderstood what shore wrote. Thought he was saying the strategy was to take on water so that more DC folks would intervene to help Kirk.

He was actually talking about the support Giannoulias was going to get from DC.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 3:58 pm
@Berkeley

I agree that their selection of likely voters may affect their data, but they’re internally consistent and generally accurate. Yet people tend to pile on them as being partisan shills (which they’re not), and many of these same people used to cling to R2K’s results.

@Bored
1) It’s foolish to say that Green Party candidates like Jones, which have major party status in Illinois, are in the same boat as independents and other third parties that are still going through the process of getting on the ballot.

And thanks for deciding what the threshold should be for making a difference in the race. Most people think that 14% (PPP) is pretty significant, particularly this many months out. I remember when people kindly said they’d start taking us seriously when we broke 5%. Ah, moving goal posts.

It’s hard to make a serious argument that LeAlan Jones (or Whitney) shouldn’t be included at this point. My guess is that Rasmussen simply doesn’t want to spend the money on asking so many extra questions. You don’t need to ask what the favorable/unfavorable is for Other, etc.

Comment by Sacks Romana Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 4:16 pm
Berkeley Bear,

There have been studies showing that Ras’ last-minute polling (polls right before elections) start shifting away from their earlier polling which tends to show a conservative lean.

They may show accuracy in the final days, but in the months before Ras seems to be an outlier — leaning in favor of conservative candidates and causes.

Odd, that.

Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 4:16 pm
=Which one–Alexi or Kirk–has more surprises yet to come?=

I’m responding to a rhetorical only because of my reaction to it which was something like “God help us all”.

The Voters in this State are probably going to become so desensitized that we’re all going to look like we got some massive botox injections to our foreheads. The term “raise an eyebrow” will become obsolete.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 4:24 pm
This looks pretty good for Democrats (and I’m not one). Alexi seems to be rebounding a bit, despite The Bank, and Kirk seems to be slipping in his lead, no doubt because of Resume Fluffing. In a blue blue state, that’s not good news for Republicans who have, of course, as usual, only themselves to blame. Kirk could have had somebody with a brain do some opposition research on himself–at a minimum, they would have fixed the website “fluffs.” Guess he was too sure of himself.

Obama is doing better than his health care intitiative and his immigration reform activities are, suggesting that he remains personally popular and will be practically impossible to dislodge in 2012. Illinois Republican donors might as well save their money for Pat Quinn’s big income tax increase come 2011.

Comment by cassandra Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 4:30 pm
Cassandra says, “Illinois Republican donors might as well save their money for Pat Quinn’s big income tax increase come 2011.”

Not sure about your financial situation, but under Quinn’s original proposal my middle class family only would’ve seen another $60/year in taxes.

While our state needs to resolve its systemic financial problems, a fiver per month ain’t that much of an investment to contribute to our society.

Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 4:59 pm
I think Quinn modified that proposal so he could reduce his proposed corporate tax. At this point, of course, neither proposal applies—the only thing he keeps talking about is that 1 percent increase “for education,” and that’s pretty muted.

Unfortunately, money is fungible, and whatever the increase, it won’t necessarily go to resolve the state’s financial problems or to “education.”
Money is fungible. Taxpayers can’t tag it when they sent in the state irs check. It could just as well go to hiring another passel of Democratic hacks at six figure salaries, handing out lush contracts to favorites, or providing even more extraordinary salary and benefits to unionized state employees.

Personally, I wouldn’t even be willing to pay $60 a year for that.

Comment by cassandra Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 5:21 pm
Cassandra, I noted I was speaking about his original proposal.

He did indeed modify it after people complained that paying their fair share for a properly functioning state was too much of a burden.

Your point about political hackery is valid (though I’ll point out GOPs are just as guilty of it) and I agree.

Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 5:44 pm
Kirk’s people are trying to put up a good front, but the reality is a LOT of Republicans out there are fed up with Kirk and with the fact he’s hurting all GOP candidates now. Many don’t want to say so publicly, but the reality is many Republicans have no intention to lift a finger for Kirk.

Comment by too obvious Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 7:04 pm
=Many don’t want to say so publicly,…=

Uh oh. Think I’m going to get my ILGOP card revoked?

*gets up, shuffles away from the laptop–and stares at it suspiciously*

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 7:21 pm
See…there IS an advantage to “being” a RINO sometimes.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 8:36 pm
Conservative Veteran bizarrely claims, “Rob_N, you’re wrong about Rep. Kirk. Although he voted against the health care bill, he said that he doesn’t support repealing it.”

What planet are you on?

Just last March the man said he was going to LEAD THE EFFORT to repeal the reform bill. In January Kirk even signed a pledge to do just that.

The direct Mark Kirk quote is: “And so, as your senator, I would lead the effort, if it passes, to repeal this bill.”

http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2010/03/kirk-promises-to-repeal-health-care-bill-if-it-passes.html

Of course, I suppose you are partially correct in that Kirk has committed yet another flop by backpedaling from that teabaggish declaration. Kirk also has yet to sign on to the actual repeal efforts his fellow Repubs have gotten underway in the House since the bill was signed into law last spring.

That’s the beauty of Kirk’s sheer number of flip-flops — we all get to be right about his wily ways!

Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 11:20 pm
Well, well, well. It looks like it would behoove Kirk to campaign on ObamaCare repeal and for border protection. [I recall earlier this year, this blog thought that a bad move for Kirk.] IL voters are NOT out of the norm on the Obama agenda, really. Perhaps Brady COULD beat Obama. [Some one, NRO?, had some stats showing it would be damaging on balance in IL for a candidate to be endorsed by O.]

Kirk’s so insincere and Brady’s so noncommittal. They need better coaching from campaign advisors. Don’t be afraid to take on the O agenda–or Quinn’s weak governorship.

Comment by Peggy SO-IL Thursday, Jul 8, 10 @ 11:36 pm
Rob_N you are way too obsessed over Republicans. This is Illinois. They are the minority-minority-minority party. They hold no statewide offices. They hold no power in the General Assembly. Chicago hasn’t seen a GOP Mayor since Calvin Coolidge was president.

Your obsession over one of the winning a political office in Illinois is ridiculous.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 8:31 am
Vanilla,

It’s not Republicans. It’s folks like Louis and Cincy who have a problem acknowledging the truth.

PS re “one of them winning a political office in Illinois” - I’m represented by a Republican in Congress and up until literally a few years ago I was also represented by Republicans in Springfield.

That Republican representing me in Congress is now running for US Senate and he’s unfortunately been lying to me and my neighbors for the past decade.

In the past I’ve acknowledged where I supported him on certain policies, even though in the main I disagreed with his overall platform and Congressional record.

Now, since he’s flip-flopped on several of the points where I previously supported him, there’s no point in continuing any support at all.

On the other hand, my mayor is a Republican (whom I’ve endorsed and respect) as is most of the village board. Those folks tell the truth and I appreciate that.

Comment by Rob_N Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 9:47 am
PPS Vanilla -

In case you hadn’t noticed, I was responding to Conservative Veteran’s claim that Kirk doesn’t support repealing the health care reform law despite the fact that Kirk vowed to lead the effor to repeal it…

Not sure why you think calling out Con Vet on his fallacy is an “obsession”.

Comment by Rob_N Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:05 am

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