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* As I told subscribers this morning, Public Policy Polling has a new survey out. Bill Brady is beating Pat Quinn by nine points, 39-30, with 11 for Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and 20 percent undecided. From the pollster…
Pat Quinn’s approval rating is 23% and when it comes to the Illinois Governor’s race that’s about all you need to know. Despite being largely unknown and not particularly well liked Bill Brady leads with 39% to 30% for Quinn and 11% for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, continuing his path toward becoming one of the most unlikely big state Governors in recent history.
Brady is winning 80% of Republicans while only 60% of Democrats are committed to Quinn. Perhaps most remarkable is the numbers among independents- Brady leads with 40% with Whitney second at 19% and Quinn finishing all the way back in third at 15%.
There’s certainly still room for Quinn to come back but it’s going to depend on whether people vote based on their feelings about the candidates themselves or just choose on party. Among the undecideds 50% are Democrats to only 16% who are Republicans and 67% of them voted for Barack Obama to just 21% who voted for John McCain. Usually you would expect that Democratic leaning crop of undecideds to come home and tighten the race…except that they give Quinn only an 8% approval rating with 49% of them disapproving of him. Getting the votes of Democrats who dislike him is the only way Quinn can pull it out but right now those folks aren’t sure what they’re going to do.
53% of voters disapprove of Quinn. He has only a 40% approval rating even with voters of his own party and Republicans (7/81) and independents (17/60) are pretty universal in their dislike of him. Brady isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either. The largest group of voters, at 45%, have no opinion about him. Among those who do it’s a slightly negative one with 25% seeing him favorably and 30% unfavorably. But at the end of the day the main thing Brady has going for him is that he’s not Pat Quinn and that’s good enough to give him a solid lead less than three months out from the election.
Toplines and crosstabs are here. I need to get to the State Fair soon, so I’m in a bit of a rush. You’ll have to debate this without me.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:01 am
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It doesn’t look good for Quinn. Even though Brady lacks a credible plan to balance the budget — and promises to cut taxes in the process — he has more credibility with the voters. Remarkable.
Comment by Reformer Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:09 am
So will the rest of this election be about attracting the 20% undecided? They may be the key to putting 2010 away for either Quinn or Brady.
Comment by Levois Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:12 am
- So will the rest of this election be about attracting the 20% undecided? -
You never know, some of the Green voters may come to their senses and decide not to waste their vote.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:17 am
so if Whitney cracks 10%, the Greens are guaranteed ballot access for 2012? is that the rule?
Comment by Fire Ron Guenther Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:17 am
It is too late for Quinn to change his image. He has nothing to run on. So, he has to smear Brady from Woodstock to Cairo on anything he can gin up.
Quinn is a failure. Voters have decided upon that. The question in two months is whether they will rather have the old loser, or the new loser. My gut says they will try the new one.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:19 am
FRG, the rule is 5 percent.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:22 am
How is it that voting for a third party candidate is a “wasted” vote? Is it not even worth considering that a third party candidate might be the best choice when the two major party candidates are this bad?
Comment by girllawyer Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:27 am
== the old loser, or the new loser ==
The evening of November 2 will certainly identify the only loser.
Comment by Joe from Joliet Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:29 am
A bit of a closer race. Quinn is in trouble, he needs to start a campaign and gte up on the air.
But the Dem polling is a tricky thing, it is not uncommon for large numbers of dems to wait to the last minute to fall in beind a canidate. That large cunk of Dems who have not come in yet behind Quinn should not be ruled out of the game.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 11:53 am
girllawyer,
In the history of the US and Illinois, there have been only a handful of “independents” or “third party” candidates who have won in head to head to head elections. The system favors 2 parties and most folk won’t vote for a 3rd party candidate. While a 3rd party might be attractive in a messy year like this, most folk won’t stray that far. Good luck trying, tho.
Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:07 pm
Is there any way they can not invite Whitney to the debates?
Comment by Cosmic Charlie Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:10 pm
@Small Town Liberal
Even if 100% of the Green voters in this poll chose to vote for Quinn, he’d still be within the margin of error with Brady. And given that Brady is clobbering Quinn among independents, it’s a farce to paint the Greens as being the source of Quinn’s electoral problems. People opting to vote for Whitney doesn’t cause a 23% approval rating.
Comment by Sacks Romana Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:12 pm
This is another bad sign for Quinn, another poll that shows the gap between him and Senator Brady widening instead of get tighter, if I recall correctly the last poll done by PPP had Brady with a 4% lead. It seems to me that it is getting pretty late in the game for Quinn not have his base locked up.
Comment by RMW Stanford Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:13 pm
Sacks - Even if 100% of those Greens voted for Rich Whitney, he still wouldn’t be governor. And I didn’t say anything about Whitney being Quinn’s electoral problems. I forgive you though, I know you guys rely on fantasy to get through your day.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:15 pm
You never know, some of the Green voters may come to their senses and decide not to waste their vote.
Coming to our senses would be to waste this vote.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:18 pm
@Small Town Liberal
Also, if your definition of wasting your vote is voting for someone with a bad chance of winning, then it looks like you might waste your vote on Quinn.
You do realize that Quinn has been a perrennial candidate that has lost enough elections to make a Green blush. It’s great that he’s Governor now, but it’s mass hypocrisy to support him and also claim that everyone should always fall in line behind a winner.
Comment by Sacks Romana Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:19 pm
Small Town Liberal, I forget, whatever happened to that guy you Democrats told us Greens to “come to our senses” and vote for in the last gubernatorial election?
Comment by PFK Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:22 pm
- if your definition of wasting your vote is voting for someone with a bad chance of winning, then it looks like you might waste your vote on Quinn. -
Its not, its voting for someone who has no chance of winning. Not just a poor chance, zero chance. Nada. It doesn’t have anything to do with the candidate I’m supporting and his past victories and losses. It has to do with the candidate you’re supporting and his past history of no victories, only losses.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:27 pm
- you Democrats told us Greens to “come to our senses” and vote for in the last gubernatorial election? -
Is it guarenteed that if you didn’t vote Green you’d vote for a Democrat? You don’t seem to get it, whether its a vote that could have went to Brady or a vote that could have went to Quinn, a vote for Whitney is the same as skipping that part of the ballot.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:31 pm
I would say that the only people who “waste” their vote is someone that chooses not to vote at all. I dont think anyone is is ever “wasting” their vote when they vote for the candidate that best reflects their beliefs or agenda. Regardless if they are from the Reps, Dems, Greens, Libertarian, ect.
Comment by RMW Stanford Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:33 pm
*guaranteed
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:35 pm
For just a tiny bit of we-told-you-so … Some of we Dan Hynes supporters sort of saw this coming. Quinn is a nice guy but he is in over his head. Man, will the Democratic primary voters for gub in this state -ever- get it right?
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:35 pm
The last PPP results in June were Brady-34, Quinn-30, and Whitney-9. Brady and Whitney went up while Quinn stayed the same.
You never know, some more of the Democrat voters may finally come to their senses and decide not to waste their vote on yet another Democratic Party of Illinois failure.
“In the history of the US and Illinois, there have been only a handful of “independents” or “third party” candidates who have won in head to head to head elections.”
dupage dan, go read some more about history please. We have a handful of independents and third parties in the US Congress right now. The Republican Party is a third party in our history. Not every state discriminates against alternative parties as much as Illinois either. It may be rare, but only a handful of times in history? You are wrong on that statement.
Cosmic Charlie, yes there is a way they can keep Whitney out of the debates. It won’t be ethical, moral, honest, or fair, but Quinn and Brady seem to have low enough characters to do such things. If or when they do, voting for those two anti-democratic chickens is the wasted vote.
Put Whitney and everyone in the debates and let the voters decide. That is democracy. If we can keep it.
Comment by JeffTrigg Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:43 pm
>Its not, its voting for someone who has no chance of winning. Not just a poor chance, zero chance. Nada. It doesn’t have anything to do with the candidate I’m supporting and his past victories and losses. It has to do with the candidate you’re supporting and his past history of no victories, only losses.
It’s attitudes like that that this country is still stuck with only two competitive major parties and voter partcipation is so low. Other countries have a lot more to choose from in an election because there’s a lot more parity between the parties and turnout is very high.
Comment by Segatari Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:47 pm
>Cosmic Charlie, yes there is a way they can keep Whitney out of the debates. It won’t be ethical, moral, honest, or fair, but Quinn and Brady seem to have low enough characters to do such things. If or when they do, voting for those two anti-democratic chickens is the wasted vote.
Having Whitney in the debates would only help Brady and damage Quinn. Whitney is only going to draw from the liberal base that would had gone to Quinn. Conservatives are not gonna vote for Whitney.
Comment by Segatari Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:50 pm
STL, voting for Quinn would be voting for someone with zero chance of winning. Not the election, but in governing. Quinn is perpetually bullied by Madigan, so even if he wins the election, he will never be able to really be in charge. He has even less legislative support than Blagojevich, because who can trust Quinn with his track record of talking tough, but when it comes time to fight, he just gives up!
If Quinn had been willing to die on the cross of campaign finance reform, for instance, and stood by his own reform commission, he’d be in a much strong position today. But instead he gave into Madigan and demonstrated who is really in charge. That’s just one example.
Comment by PFK Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 12:54 pm
PFK - Is Whitney going to accomplish a lot of governing when he loses? Your argument is hilarious.
For the record, I’m a fan of better access for alternate parties. If you want me to sign a petition or vote for an amendment to accomplish this, knock on my door any time. But in this state, during this year’s election, a Green vote is still a wasted vote.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 1:00 pm
It tells you a lot about how badly the kirk campaign has been managed that brady is winning moderates and kirk is not despite kirk’s reputation in dc as a moderate.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 1:09 pm
I finally came to my senses and signed up w/the Greens. Rich Whitney is a smart guy who could govern the state as governor.
It will mean moving away from the old politics though. Me, I’m just sick and tired of the old politics.
Dr. NO is really tired to listen to. Gov. Flip Flop is a joke.
Whitney can win - it’s still over 75 days to the election. The Greens will energize those that want change - think Obama guys and gals - yes impossible is possible.
Join the effort and back a winner for once!
Doug Dobmeyer
Comment by Doug Dobmeyer Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 1:14 pm
Shore Kirk id a lot of press to try and undue his rep as a moderate to lure conservatives, starting with his flip on cap and trade.
To me, Kirk lost a lot of moderate support when he moved to the right.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 1:28 pm
Quinn will need to get up on air non-stop from Larbor Day to election day, flooding the airwaves. I just don’t know that he will have the financial capacity to do that.
Comment by Niles Township Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 2:01 pm
I think the disparity between the Senate Race and Gov race simply comes down to the fact that the public knows Pat Quinn and does not have have a lot of confidence in him. Its not about moderate or conservative its about the perceived competence of Pat Quinn.
Comment by Cosmic Charlie Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 2:01 pm
the social conservative (brady) is doing better with moderates than the social moderate (kirk). This speaks to the awful campaigns run by quinn and kirk to this point.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 2:09 pm
With numbers like this will we see a 3rd ad from the DGA in this state? My guess is probably not.
Comment by Bakersfield Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 2:22 pm
I heard a rumor Art Turner will be actively campaigning for Pat Quinn even though he was not treated well in Lt. Gov debacle. An active Turner would make a big difference in that undecided column
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 2:33 pm
The DGA and most other democratic groups will be spending their scarce funds elsewhere. Quinn is being written off and he is no longer anything but a longshot. The $2 million shot by DGA was a waste and won’t be repeated.
Comment by George2 Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 2:36 pm
I just can’t believe Quinn is down so much with Sheila Simon on the ticket. Isn’t she the secret weapn that would deliver downstate voters and women to Quinn? They must be holding her back and saving the magic for after Labor Day.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 2:54 pm
Trigg, I agree they should all be invited and, at least with regard to the LWV debate, whitney will automatically qualify under their traditional rules I think.
Comment by Cosmic Charlie Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 2:56 pm
Well, STL, it appears you’ve bought into Quinn’s “Vote for Me Because I’m Already Governor!” campaign theme — and while that might appeal to some people, it barely got him through the Democratic primary. And if that’s all Quinn’s got, then this election is Brady’s to lose.
Comment by PFK Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 3:10 pm
- Well, STL, it appears you’ve bought into Quinn’s “Vote for Me Because I’m Already Governor!” campaign theme -
Great argument PFK, with logic like yours the Green party will surely get 11% of the vote someday.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 3:16 pm
This is just a depressing survey.
We like to ridicule our elected class in Illinois - “those crooked pols” - but truth is, the supposedly more-virtuous public in this state has been doing a lousy job now for years in selecting its leaders. You can look back at the past three gubernatorial cycles now and say with reasonable confidence, the Illinois voters screwed up every time.
I know there are some die-hard supporters of George-Ryan-as-governor, but given the man’s overall criminality and contempt for the rule of law, I’d say it’s clear that the IL voters whiffed in 1998, when they passed up Glenn Poshard in favor of Ryan. Especially given our current fiscal crisis; Poshard always struck me as a man sincerely concerned about future debt legacies to our children. He’d have been a good governor.
This is tougher for me as a Democrat to say, but it’s also abundantly clear that the voters missed again, in 2002 when they picked Rod Blagojevich over Jim Ryan. This might have been the most excusable error. Given George Ryan’s record (perhaps his worst legacy as governor), voting for Rod at the time might have seemed defensible, but in retrospect it was clearly the wrong call.
In 2006 it was an easy call, and the voters missed again. It should have been Judy over Rod. Whiff #3 (and to comment on the ongoing thread here, yes, a vote for Rich Whitney in 2006 might as well have been a vote for Rod, in my opinion).
So have we learned anything? According to this poll, no. The voters are about to pass up the deeply-flawed but at least fundamentally-correct-on-the-issues Pat Quinn, in favor of the cheap hucksterism and general fiscal ignorance of “Ten Cent” Brady.
So it looks like we’re about to go 0-for-4. Jim Edgar took a lot of heat for his comments a week back but I think he was on to something. I declare a personal moratorium on all my own complaints about our crummy leadership in Springfield. We get the leaders we vote for.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 3:16 pm
Fork time for Pat.
Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 3:17 pm
The Democratic message that Brady is too extreme for Illinois simply hasn’t gotten through. The good news for Quinn is that he has nowhere to go but up. The state budget mess and the state of the economy are already “priced in” to Brady’s support. Once the undecided Dems come home and Obama makes some more home-state appearances closer to the election to drive Dem turnout, Quinn won’t lose this race by 9%. He very easily could lose it by 2-3%, though.
Comment by 60611 Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 3:34 pm
Which of the three candidates is a good executive? Not a one. In their own ways, they’re all tree-shakers, not jelly-makers.
I’d be inclined to vote for the one who picked the best chief of staff.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 3:38 pm
Doug, I love your sense of commitment, but Whitney isn’t going to be the next Governor of Illinois, ergo a vote for him is a throw-away in terms of deciding who will be.
Comment by steve schnorf Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 3:42 pm
Ross Perot brought us Bill Clinton, which, if you ignore Clinton’s personal steve schnorf - Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 3:49 pm:
He’s lost his job, his pension, his reputation, before this is over he’s probably going to lose a lot more. Send him up for 6-12 months or so and let it go.
Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 4:05 pm
Post should read:
Ross Perot brought us Bill Clinton, which, if you ignore Clinton’s personal peccadilloes, turned out okay.
One can also argue that John Anderson gave us Ronald Reagan, which worked out pretty good too.
Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 4:09 pm
Doug’s no neophyte and is certainly not naive. While I’m not going Green, I am certainly not discouraging those who think it’s worth the punch–even if it costs my candidate. Don’t think the targeting gurus won’t be trying (aren’t trying) to figure out a way to get those disgruntled voters. So, they can, in fact, have an impact.
Comment by HolyCatz Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 4:17 pm
Small Town Liberal said:
“For the record, I’m a fan of better access for alternate parties. If you want me to sign a petition or vote for an amendment to accomplish this, knock on my door any time. But in this state, during this year’s election, a Green vote is still a wasted vote.”
For those of us who are fans of alternate parties, a vote for Whitney is the best thing we can do. Particularly if voters are simply not buying Quinn or Brady as candidates, votes for Whitney maintains the ballot access the Green Party achieved in 2006 when Whitney took 10.4% of the vote (for reference, polling at 3-4% at the same time last year).
Greens have heard from every quarter, “You won’t get the signatures” “You won’t survive the Madigan ballot challenge” “You won’t poll above 5%” “You won’t earn more than 5%” “You won’t earn more than 10%” “You won’t get in the debates” and of course “You won’t win.” Count how many of those we’ve proven wrong so far.
The Green Party continues to grow in Illinois despite these sentiments, and so it’s incredibly condescending to say that Greens would be “coming to their senses” by switching their votes to a “winner” rather than supporting candidates that both espouse their values and will help change the face of Illinois politics for the next generation. Is it “coming to their senses” to support someone that 77% of Illinois thinks is doing a bad job as Governor? And again, a lot of independents voting for Whitney would likely end up voting for Brady over Quinn. That 11% represents 350,000 voters and they’re not for any one candidate’s taking.
Anyway, Quinn has been running for office for 30 years, almost non-stop. He’s lost far more than he’s won. I hope Quinn thinks of his legacy in less absolutist terms than you view the Green Party.
As far as Whitney having NO chance, this poll puts him into the debates (10% has been the stated standard this cycle, up 5% from 2006). I’ll be very curious to see what the polls start looking like after those debates, and we can discuss his chances again then.
Comment by Sacks Romana Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 4:43 pm
- and we can discuss his chances again then. -
They’ll still be zero. Can’t wait to discuss.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 4:54 pm
With the 4% margin of error, hey, it might ACtually be BB with 35% to PQ’s 34%! Now wouldn’t THAT be something? A dead heat?! Now there’s the potential for a “photo finish” for ya!
After all, Kirk-Alexi is supposedly a toss up–and who’ll get the bulk of the 10% GREEN vote there? (likely the G Man) Now there’s the potential for a “photo finish” for ya!…(Or 43%-26% the other way)(although doubtful).. but Yikes!–if the latter, ALL of those independents would have to be feelin’ pretty liberal (also doubtful) come Election Day for PQ to keep hangin’ around Springfield
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 7:03 pm
I’m not hearing anyone at my office expressing a vote for Quinn or Brady. I wouldn’t be surprised at very low voter turn out this fall.
Comment by Emily Booth Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 9:01 pm
If nothing else we know that from now on, any poll which doesn’t include Rich Whitney by name isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on. Some of the other polling firms are having trouble breaking their habit of excluding third party candidates.
Comment by Will Wednesday, Aug 18, 10 @ 9:53 pm