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Question of the day

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* It’s that time again. Predict the winning spreads of the gubernatorial and US Senate candidates. Explain if you want.

…Adding… Bonus Question: Which candidate will be the biggest surprise winner/loser of the year?

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:31 pm

Comments

  1. Brady 47
    Quinn 42
    Cohen 8
    Whitney 3

    Kirk 45
    Giannoulias 46
    Jones 6
    Labno 3

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:39 pm

  2. Adding, Kirk for biggest surprise loser.

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:40 pm

  3. Brady 48
    Quinn 41
    Cohen 8
    Whitney 6

    Kirk 48
    Giannoulias 46
    Jones 3
    Labno 2

    Comment by OneMan Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:41 pm

  4. Quinn 43 Brady 43. Quinn wins a contested election that takes days to sort out.
    Giannoulias 46 Kirk 42

    Good economic news helps Democrats win in Illinois
    Quinn wins a shocker.

    Comment by The Mighty Swan Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:43 pm

  5. Brady / Kirk win. I’ll go with Oneman’s percentages.

    Biggest Surpise Winner - Kinzinger

    Comment by Stones Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:44 pm

  6. Quinn 45
    Brady 44
    Cohen 9
    Whitney 2
    Cohen hurts Brady, me thinks. Brady drags out recount but still loses.

    Giannoulias 52
    Kirk 44
    Others 4
    Alexi is the surprise runaway winner.

    Comment by John Presta Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:46 pm

  7. Brady - 48
    Quinn - 40

    Kirk - 46
    Alexi - 43

    Foster, Hare and Halvorson all lose.

    Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:48 pm

  8. Brady 50
    Quinn 42
    SLC 5
    Whitney 3

    Between Kirk and Alexi, I dont know take either one by point or two

    Comment by RMW Stanford Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:49 pm

  9. Brady - 51%
    Quinn - 40%
    Cohen - 6%
    Whitney - 3%

    Kirk - 48%
    Giannoulias - 44%
    Jones - 6%
    Labno - 2%

    Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:50 pm

  10. Kirk 48
    Alexi 43
    Others 9

    Quinn 41
    Brady 40.99
    Others 18.01

    I agree with The Mighty Swan, a recount is in play with Quinn pulling out by the closest gubenatorial race in the nation’s history.

    Comment by Niles Township Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:52 pm

  11. Brady 49
    Quinn 41
    Whitney 8
    SLC 2

    Giannoulias 48.2
    Kirk 48.1

    I agree with 47, Kirk losing will be one of the biggest upsets nationally. I only say that because while people may not care much for Brady, they will vote for him with conviction. The same can’t be said of Kirk, not a lot of enthusiasm for him since his exaggerations came to light.

    Comment by Siriusly Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:58 pm

  12. Brady 51%
    Quinn 35%
    Cohen 10%
    Whitney 4%

    Surprise…Brady gets North of 50%…Big GOP and Downstate Turnout

    Kirk 50%
    Alexi 44%
    Others 6%

    Surprise Shilling beats Hare

    Comment by Louis Howe Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:59 pm

  13. Brady 47
    Quinn 45
    Whitney 5
    Cohen/others 3

    Giannoulias 48
    Kirk 44
    Jones 5
    Labno 3

    All House incumbents except Halvorson win, while Seals picks up IL-10. No big surprises, but Republicans come just a couple of seats short of taking the IL House.

    Comment by 60611 Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:01 pm

  14. Brady 48
    Quinn 40
    Cohen: 4
    Whitney: 8
    People will vote for the unknown Green as the protest, as opposed to the known Cohen. On that same argument, people know Quinn and won’t support him. Big Chicago turnout doesn’t help Quinn.

    Kirk: 49
    Alexi: 51
    Huge turnout in the city carries Alexi.

    Upset: Bean loses. This one is off the radar but that area is still solid GOP and she hasn’t done much to get anybody motivated to support her.

    Comment by Skeeter Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:05 pm

  15. Alexi wins, but Kirk keeps saying he did.
    Brady wins by one vote cuz Quinn went to the wrong polling place and then forgot to mark his ballot.

    Comment by D.P. Gumby Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:07 pm

  16. Brady 48
    Quinn 39
    Cohen 10
    Whitney 3

    Kirk 48
    Alexi 43
    Jones 7
    Labno 2

    Comment by 10th Indy Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:09 pm

  17. Brady 37
    Quinn 39
    Cohen 16
    Whitney 8

    Kirk 48
    Giannoulias 48
    Jones 2
    Labno 2

    Cohen makes a surge but pulls more votes from Brady than Quinn. As an unaffiliated name with lots of name recognition, folks unhappy with Quinn and afraid of Brady (esp. after an October of negative ads) go with the “familiar” but unscarred Cohen. Thus: Quinn and Brady get their base, but the swing voters go for Cohen. Whitney loses out due to lack of familiarity and having a third party after his name.

    Kirk-Giannoulis will be a toss-up. The other candidates will get little movement.

    Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:18 pm

  18. I want to know who Art Turner votes for….

    Comment by zzzzzz Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:26 pm

  19. Brady 49
    Quinn 44
    Cohen 5
    Whitney 2

    Kirk 47
    Giannoulias 45
    Jones 5
    Labno 3

    Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:29 pm

  20. Brady +6 or more

    Alexi +1 or less (but still wins)

    Biggest winner/loser - David Miller beats JBT as most of Illinois think’s Rich’s brother is running for office.

    Comment by Thoughts... Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:30 pm

  21. Thoughts, he’s my cousin, not my brother. lol

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:31 pm

  22. Foster loses (perhaps just wishful thinking on my part), JBT and Rutherford win as well.

    Comment by OneMan Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:33 pm

  23. Brady 50
    Quinn 43
    Others 7

    Kirk 49
    Gianoulias 46
    Others 5

    Voter apathy in Chicago play an enormous role. People are more focused on the mayoral election than the statewide races. African -American turnout returns to 2006 participation numbers.

    Shocker: Kirk’s traditional base turnout heavily in the 10th to support his Senatorial bid, which brings Dold through on Kirk’s coattails. (and Seals returns to the unemployment line)

    Comment by A.B. Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:56 pm

  24. Quinn 42.1
    Brady 39.6
    Cohen 9.2
    Whitney 8.1

    Comment by RAMBO Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:05 pm

  25. Brady 48
    Quinn 39
    Others 13

    Kirk 44
    Alexi 43
    Others 13

    ‘Burbs and downstate turnouts much higher than city. 2008 new voters stay home in droves.

    A.B. beat me to the punch but Dold wins a squeaker over Ray Wardingly, oops, Dan Seals, as the surprise winner.

    Comment by Adam Smith Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:15 pm

  26. Brady +4 but gets @46%. Kirk by thin margin, but wins. Kinzinger & Seals win, Foster holds. I will go with Hare, but not so sure I’m right on that one. JBT wins, but Rutherford drops a razor thin race to Robyn Kelly. Biggest shock on Election Night is House GOP, but not that they take the house (or come close), but rather that they pick up fewer seats than expected. Still their biggest night in years, but not near the 12 needed.

    Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:24 pm

  27. Brady +4 (no way Whitney gets above 3%-the none of the above vote he got in 06 will go to “job creator” Cohen)
    Kirk +3

    Surprise-Phil Hare loses-gerrymandering opponents win.

    Comment by OurMagician Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:27 pm

  28. 45 - Quinn
    45 - Brady
    6 - Cohen
    4- Whitney

    43-Kirk
    42 - Giannoulias
    15 - other folks

    Comment by T Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:53 pm

  29. Crud, I forgot about the bonus question.

    Phil Hare losing to Bobby Schilling is too easy.

    Mine is a three-way tie. First, I think Joe Pollak will beat Jan Schakowsky. Yeah, it sounds crazy, but he’s raising $$$ at a good clip and could be placed under the “Young Guns” program. Second, I think Cedra Crenshaw will beat AJ Wilhelmi. Third, I think Dwight Kay beats Jay Hoffman.

    Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 4:32 pm

  30. Quinn 42
    Brady 46
    (who cares about the others)
    Kirk 44
    Giannoulias 45 (or 44.1 but more than Kirk)
    Biggest winner, JBT - everyone who should have voted for her 4 years ago tries to make-up.

    Comment by justbabs Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 4:33 pm

  31. Quinn 42%
    Brady 44%
    Others 14%

    Giannoulias 43%
    Kirk 46%
    Others 11%

    Low voter turnout, Cohen steals more Brady vote than Quinn, still Brady wins.

    Comment by Wensicia Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 4:47 pm

  32. Brady 50
    Quinn 39
    Others 11

    Kirk 45
    Alexi 44
    Others 11

    Biggest surprises: 1. Dwight Kay beats Jay Hoffman 2. Bobby Schilling beats Phil Hare

    Comment by eastsider Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 4:49 pm

  33. I really have no idea, but it is wrong that I want to slap the people who wrote “others?” :)

    Comment by Squideshi Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:00 pm

  34. Brady 49
    Quinn 38
    Cohn 5
    Whitney 6
    Green 2

    Kirk 49
    Ali G 45
    Jones 4
    Labno 2

    Biggest surprise: Adam Baumgartner beats Toi Hutchinson…because Toi’s former boss Debbie Halvorson lost by 15 points and drug her down with her.

    Comment by Raising Kane Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:42 pm

  35. Brady 43
    Quinn 40
    Cohen 7
    Whitney 10

    Alexi 45
    Kirk 44
    Others 11

    Kirk somehow manages to lose in this envioroment is the headline

    Comment by L.S. Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:44 pm

  36. Brady 55
    Quinn 45

    Kirk 48
    Alexi 52

    Biggest Surprise AJ Wilhelmi loser - I know at least 5 Democrats who voted for him last election is leaving this seat blank on the ballot, Joliet & Lockport

    Comment by DoubleDown Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:45 pm

  37. if the headline can be outside of those two races, I’ll go with state house and senate GOP don’t do near as well as expected.

    Comment by L.S. Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:46 pm

  38. Brady: 48%
    Quinn: 38%
    Cohen: 9%
    Whitney: 5%

    Cohen’s hitting the south side hard. Today saw his billboard on Eastbound I-57 around Markham/Harvey, big picture of him and his AA running mate. I don’t see either Quinn or Sheila Simon making a big hit in the AA community.

    Biggest surprise: AG wins. Hard to believe with his baggage. Jim Ryan should have run for the R nomination here.

    Comment by Park Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 6:42 pm

  39. Brady 50%
    Quinn 40%
    Whitney 8%
    Cohen 2%

    Kirk 49%
    Giannoulias 44%

    Surprise = Dold beats Seals
    Shoulda been a surprise = Schilling beats Hare
    Kinzinger beats Halvorson
    Hultgren beats Foster

    Statewide only White and Madigan survives.

    Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 6:56 pm

  40. Brady and Quinn takes 2-3 days to sort out, but Brady pulls through. Quinn doesn’t ask for a recount. Gianoulias just barely beats Kirk.

    Shocker: Justice Kilbride becomes the first Supreme Court justice to lose retention and the first sitting chief justice in the country to lose retention. I don’t want this to happen, but voter turnout is going to suck and he needs 60%.

    Comment by ugh Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 7:49 pm

  41. Quinn Gets Slaughtered

    Brady 55
    Quinn 40
    Whitney 5

    Senate (Close Call)
    Giannoulis-51
    Kirk-49

    Hoffman doesn’t lose eastsider. You clearly don’t know the district or the resources battle in this race but that guess was cute. Suprise winner because of the margin is Rosenthal in the 98th. Biggest suprise loser is Robin Kelly down year for the democrats.

    Comment by Pigs to Slaughter Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 8:31 pm

  42. Biggest surprise winner
    John Patrick Ryan

    ok, I’m out drinking. Just kidding Mr Speaker

    Comment by Been There Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 8:34 pm

  43. No way Kay beats Hoffman, that is not a prediction it is a fantasy.

    Comment by pyrman Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 10:25 pm

  44. Like everyone says, Brady trounces Quinn (though by a smaller margin than the average prediction).

    Kirk edges Alexi in the wee hours of the night.

    JOEL POLLAK takes the 9th congressional district away from Jan Schakowsky-Creamer and the movement to allow foreign-born Americans to run for President resurfaces. Seriously, the guy is brilliant. Also:
    http://www.facebook.com/PollakForCongress

    Comment by Josh Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:18 pm

  45. That can’t be a serious post.

    Comment by Obamarama Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:29 pm

  46. She’s never had a serious challenger, Obamarama. She’s never had to fight for the seat. She’s scared now.

    Comment by Josh Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:34 pm

  47. ===JOEL POLLAK takes the 9th congressional district away from Jan Schakowsky===

    2002 Blagojevich: 61.7 percent

    2004 Kerry: 65 percent

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:44 pm

  48. ===She’s never had a serious challenger===

    She still doesn’t.

    ===She’s never had to fight for the seat===

    She’s never pulled less than 70% of the vote.

    ===She’s scared now===

    No, she isn’t.

    Do you have any polling that shows not-Jan within 30 points? Or some secret fundraising data that has her at less than a 10:1 fundraising advantage? Is Bobby Rush going to lose too?

    Comment by Obamarama Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:52 pm

  49. ===Which candidate will be the biggest surprise winner/loser of the year?===

    It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if everybody expected it, would it?

    Comment by Josh Tuesday, Sep 21, 10 @ 12:06 am

  50. ===JOEL POLLAK takes the 9th congressional district away from Jan Schakowsky===

    2002 Blagojevich: 61.7 percent

    2004 Kerry: 65 percent
    —————

    Rich: I agree that Jan will win, but this be her toughest fight yet, and for a guy with not a ton of money. Many in the district believe Jan loves DC politics, but doesn’t do much for her district.Pollak will at least finish in the high 30’s perhaps even break 40. Had he received some money this might have been more of a race.

    Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Sep 21, 10 @ 9:09 am

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