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* It’s the day before the election. You’ve seen all the polling, but now we have some prognostications.
Bernie Schoenburg picked Pat Quinn and Mark Kirk to win, as well as Phil Hare. Kurt Erickson chose Bill Brady as the winner. Peter Brown of Quinnipac said Mark Kirk is slightly favored. Russ Stewart picked Bill Brady and Mark Kirk and chose Bobby Schilling over Hare as well as Bob Dold over Dan Seals. Chris Krug picked Quinn and Giannoulias, plus Melissa Bean over Joe Walsh. Laura Washington says get ready for a long night. 538 projects Kirk, Brady, Seals, Bean, Hultgren and Schilling. Zorn appears to predict Brady.
* The Question: Who are your final picks to click on election day? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:14 am
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Brady, Schilling, Seals, Topinka, Rutherford
All the polling says that they are going to be winners. I think Seals and Topinka will win by 10+, while Schilling, Brady and Rutherford will win by 5-10.
I think Dold ran a poor campaign, trying to tie himself to Mark Kirk as Kirk was getting lambasted in the press. Bad move.
Comment by Heartless Libertarian Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:20 am
The WAVE catches all Democrats.
Brady +6
Kirk +2
Dold +2
Hultgren +3
Schilling +6
Bean +2 (If this swings to Walsh, add +2 to all numbers above)
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:20 am
Kirk
Quinn
Topinka
Kelly
Bean
Seals
Foster
Kinzinger
Hare
Recall passes
Alex Rios contender for 2011 AL MVP as the Sox make it to the ALCS!
Comment by 21st State Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:21 am
Quinn ekes out the narrowist of victories. Alexi can’t recover from his inexperience, and past foibles. Judy wins. Miller beats Rutherford.
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:23 am
Voters overwhelmingly agree the rent is too damn high.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:24 am
For Governor
[ ] Raise Income Tax, Balance Budget
[x] Glenn Beck
For US Senate
[ ] End Deployments, Balance Budget
[x] Keep Government out of my Medicare
Comment by JN Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:24 am
Predictions - not necessarily who I want to win.
Kirk
Brady
Rutherford
Madigan
White
Kinzinger
Hultgren
Schilling
Bean
Schakowsky
Dold (most entertaining ads of the season)
At least it won’t be boring tomorrow night.
Comment by Ghost of John Brown Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:26 am
I am going to go with the statewides and then a few downstate races that are not even close, but I will take a guess to see if my margins are close or not.
Brady + 6
Alexi + 1
Judy + 15
Rutherford + 4
Costello + 35
Bost + 45
Luectefeld + 55
Comment by Living in Oklahoma Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:28 am
I am surprised Bean is listed to possibly win. She has been horrible this last term. She follows total party lines, no thinking going on for her.
Comment by Tukas Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:28 am
Brady - +5
Giannoulis 30
Madigan >30
Topinka +10
Rutherford +5
Foster
Seals
Halvorsen
Hare
Bean
I have the Dems doing better here than most people think. I base this on IL still being a pretty Dem state and I read that the Dems had a big lead in early voting. Plus I think the Dem base gets out more than people think, especially after the Obama rally on Sat. Unfortunately, I don’t think this will help Quinn who is just too feckless to survive, even against a super right winger like Brady. If Hynes had won the primary he’d win by at least 10. Similarly, if Hoffman had won the senate nomination he’d beat Kirk by 10. The senate race is only close because both candidates shot themselves in their feet and no one really likes either of them. Given that Illinois is increasingly blue, I have to give the edge to Alexi in a genuine lesser of two evils contest.
Comment by LouisXIV Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:29 am
Brady
Kirk
Rutherford
White
Madigan
Seals
Bean
Schakowsky
Comment by JakeCP Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:31 am
=== Miller beats Rutherford.===
Miller is running against Topinka. Try again.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:31 am
Tukas, Bean has had a good ad and she is not cowering away from debates. She is well liked and organized.
GOP Sweep, Jesse White and Lil Lisa Madigan
Claypool
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:31 am
Brady
Kirk
Schilling
Seals
Bean
Hultgren
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:32 am
Brady +6
Kirk +6
Madigan +32
White +34
Rutherford +4
Topinka +8
Hultgren +2
Walsh +4
Schilling +6
Kinzinger +13
Dold +7
Kay +1
McCann +9
Doherty +4
Schmidt +10
Syverson +0.5
Comment by 4 percent Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:33 am
In my area, after 5 consecutive weekends of doing door to door work, and after looking at some early voting figures in my region:
Kirk
Brady/Plummer
Dold
Rutherford
Madigan
White
Topinka
Turelli (over May)
Kirk has covered all the bases on how to run a campaign, which made him formidable as a Congressman. Quinn just isn’t getting the spark he needs as an incumbent. Seals running twice before and this time makes three seems a tired face, tired message and tons fewer Seals signs and excitement on the Democratic side, while the Democratic pounding on Dold has turned him into a sympathetic figure. Trying to make Dold out to be a Tea Party guy was a major mistake that is backfiring. Other than the abortion issue which they stretched out into the left wing ideology front, the rest falls flat. May ran a non-existent campaign thinking she had it in the bag, while Turelli snuck up on her with tons of volunteers, some good local money and lots of enthusiasm. Check out the local train stations the last two weeks.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:34 am
Kirk - Just too much for Alexi too overcome, ala Judy v. Rod, even though Kirk has been horrible as a candidate … just TOO much
Quinn - I am now of the belief Quinn’s magic will shine through again … Dems will come home here, unlike the flaking off for Kirk.
Lisa-Jesse - This is the scary part for us repubs. Will Lisa and Jesse do enougn to not only hold off the wave, but to carry Miller and Kelly? Big wins for Lisa-Jesse …
jbt - Judy wins, but it will be closer than expected, because of the Lisa-Jesse firewall of the statewides …
Rutherford - This is so tough, but Dan is going to eek a win out, but it will go late into the night, and it will come down to downstate and that will drag him over the line…
MJM - Keeps the house with a 3 seat majority, and does enough in next session to SEEM to work with Quinn, but will make sure there is enough room for Lisa to move into an even brighter spotlight.
Hultgren, Seals, Kitzinger, Bean … all winners, but Hultgren will win DESPITE his very poor campaign out here in Kendall … get over it, it was a poor run, Randy.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:35 am
Why pay attention to Russ Stewart? He basically predicts all Republicans. No thought or insight required there. Seals will replace Kirk - finally!
Comment by kirk constituent Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:35 am
Brady, Kirk, Seals, Bean, Hultgren, Schilling.
those picking Quinn/Alexi are underestimating the antipathy towards Dems downstate.
Seals wins on name recognition and Dold’s foibles down the stretch, but is immediately a top tier target of the GOP in 2012.
Comment by Joliet Jackhammers, RIP Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:36 am
“Miller beats Rutherford”
No, Rich, we’re putting together a write-in campaign for you…
Comment by soccermom Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:37 am
I predict six weeks of teeth-gnashing and hand wringing here in the Capitol Fax comment sections. I further predict copious amounts of “I told you sos” and “I knew its” from lots and lots of self-proclaimed experts here. There will be enough second guessing to fill an encylcopedia of revisionist history. I predict most of us will be wrong, but few of us will admit it.
Finally, I predict that lots of commenters from whom we’ve come to expect the repeating of standard-issued candidate talking points will disappear after 11/2, once they are no longer being paid/encouraged to comment on their preferred campaigns. You know who you are.
For the most part, they won’t be missed.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:47 am
Quinn but we won’t know until maybe Thursday.
Kirk
Rutherford
Madigan
White
Judy Barr
Comment by Give Me A Break Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:47 am
Quinn, but so tight it triggers a recount.
Alexi by half a point.
Madigan
White
Kelly
JBT
Comment by soccermom Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:50 am
Everyone who I voted for will win.
Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:51 am
quinn, kirk, claypool,
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:52 am
Brady over Quinn 48%-44%
Schilling over Hare 54% - 45%
Morthland over Ahern 58% - 42% (if Dennis A is lucky)
Kirk over Alexi 50% - 46%
Demos lose the House in DC - Illinois house ends up deadlocked @ 59-59
those predictions come from a lifelong Dem who will be fighting that tide all day tomorrow . . . like a salmon swimming upstream . . .
Comment by from the 71st Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:55 am
Kirk (by a nose)
Quinn (by a hair)
Rutherford (I hate to say it)
Madigan (of course)
White (of course)
Topinka (of course)
Comment by Way Way Down Here Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:57 am
===Explain===
Explain? I am guessing we are all guessing at this point.
Brady 45% Quinn 41%
Kirk 46% Alexi 45%
Topinka 58% Miller 40%
Kelly 50% Rutherford 48%
Madigan keeps the house but with only 60 members
Cullerton loses 4
Comment by Been There Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:58 am
I’ll go statewide first:
Brady: 3.2 %
Kirk: 1.2%
Madigan: 30+
Topinka: 25+
White (Sec of State): 35+
Rutherford: 3%
Local U.S. Congressional Races
Seals 3.7% (I’m going with him because this is his 3rd time running, but there has been an incredible lack of polling on this race. One poll, from THE HILL, had Seals up double digits. Then, that very same week, WEASKAMERICA had Dold up double digits. ***UPDATE*** WEASKAMERICA conducted a similar poll a few minutes ago and they have Dold up by 9!).
Bean (Do not ask by what percentage. Could be as much as .001, or as much as 7. What makes this so hard is that apparently 5 minutes ago a new WEASKAMERICA poll came out, and guess what? Walsh is up by 3! For some reason I just don’t see it… at all. If Walsh does win, this is TRULY a Republican wave).
Hultgren 3%
Kinzinger 8%
Schilling 7.2%
Comment by ChrisChicago82-Independent Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:01 pm
I think Quinn is actually going to pull this off, I actually think besides all the negatives, his campaign has the most intensity with the unions all out against Brady. I also can’t see suburban women voting for Brady. I think the 3rd party candidates are going to get more votes than the polls show and Quinn squeaks it out.
I also think Kirk wins by a Hare.
Comment by Ahoy Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:03 pm
47th@ 11:47 Amen
Quinn by a squeaker - because Brady has not come off of his 10% cut. IFT/AFT will come out in force.
Alexi - Kirk pulled away from the far right.
Topinka - just cause.
Rutherford
Kinzinger - Halverson has been campaigning par with her performance in the House. not much in our area.
Rezin - Gordan didn’t do enough to distance herself from the Dem machine.
The big winner is our sanity as the plethera of whining crying candidates will no longer be paraded across our TV screens.
Comment by Irish Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:09 pm
Brady by 3
Alexi by 2
Madigan, White by 15
Rutherford by 5
Topinka by 8
Bean by 6
Biggert by 10
Foster by 3
Hare by 3
And the upset pick…Halvorson by
Comment by anons Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:10 pm
The We Ask America touchtone poll was paid for by the IL Manufacturers Association/Greg Baise. They also paid for GOP robo-calls into the 10th CD and elsewhere. It’s not exactly unbiased.
Comment by In the tank Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:11 pm
We Ask America also does not weight their responses. That means it can be heavily biased based on timing and other factors.
Comment by Another Anonymous Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:12 pm
Oops. Meant Halvorson by less than a point
Comment by anons Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:15 pm
oops! I should of had more coffee…Miller will lose to Topinka, Rutherford goes down to Kelly…it was a long campaign season and weekend…excuuuuuse me….
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:16 pm
Kirk +5
Brady +6
Rutherford +8
Topinka +15
Jesse and Madigan + (A Lot, but less than 30)
Alexi and Quinn are trying exta hard to get out the African American vote on the South Side…but it’s not going to be nearly enough to counter the trouncing they will receive downstate.
Comment by ANON Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:18 pm
Interesting, no one ventures any predictions about the Kilbride Supreme Court retentions race despite 4-5M$ being spent. I have received more literature on this than any other race.
Comment by Will Watcher Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:20 pm
Giannoulias (tough call)
Brady (not so tough)
Topinka
Rutherford
Foster (barely)
Kilbride wins retention
Comment by MKA1985 Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:24 pm
I hope Peraica wins and predict he does just for the amusement factor.
As for the rest Cohen will win it for Quinn.
Quinn is like athletes foot. He always comes back and Scott Lee Cohen is like a dark moist enviroment.
Alexi V Joe Izuzu Kirk? Flip a coin.
Claypool will win if he remembers to vote.
No matter the outcome the losers will be the citizens of Illinois.
Comment by IrishPirate Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:24 pm
So far my poll of Capitol fax readers posting comes to Brady 16, Quinn 9. I will redict a Brady victory tomorrow.
Kirk, Rutherford, and Topinka win as well.
For the democrats, Madigan, White, Seals, and Foster.
I am also going to go out on a limb and do so in writing to say that in my congressional district, Congressman Bobby Rush will be re-elected by a fairly comfortable margin- that’s as far as I am willing to go on that prediction:)
Comment by Richard Afflis Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:32 pm
Seals 52
Dold 48
(Name recognition)
Bean 59
Walsh 40
Scheurer 1
(Bean won easily in ‘06 & ‘08 which were both Republican “wave” elections in the 8th C/D)
Comment by Ela Observer Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:36 pm
===Bean won easily in ‘06 & ‘08 which were both Republican “wave” elections in the 8th C/D===
You must be looking at another state’s waves.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:37 pm
Brady by 3
Kirk by 2
Kilbride retained (gets 62% for a narrow win)
Kinzinger by 10
Madigan by 12
White by 20
Rutherford by 4
Topinka by 9
Comment by Will Watcher Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:38 pm
“We Ask America also does not weight their responses. That means it can be heavily biased based on timing and other factors.”
Like all the moms being out with their kids trick-or-treating. And 10th district moms are democrats.
The last WAA poll ended up with about 28% of the district being democrats. Har.
Seals by at least 2%.
Comment by Lifelong Resident of the 10th Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:39 pm
===As for the rest Cohen will win it for Quinn.===
I think Cohen is hoping for the opposite effect.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:39 pm
Brady +3
Kirk +3
Schilling +2
Dold +2
Walsh +1
Hultgren +2
KInzinger + 6
Claypool +5
JJJr +10
I predict the Chicago media will stampede toward the Chicago Mayoral election coverage before the ink has dried on the national election results.
Comment by Plutocrat03 Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:43 pm
Kirk 2-4%
Brady 3-6%
Rutherford by around 4%
Topkina, Madigan and White by such large margins I dont even care to guess
Schilling by a small margin
Comment by RMW Stanford Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:44 pm
Scott Reeder predicts Kilbride will be retained.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:45 pm
brady in a sqeaker. alexi barely edges kirk. judy wins comptrolle, and the obvious jesse and lisa wins
Comment by jimbo Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:47 pm
GOP Wave Wipe Out
Kirk + 5
Brady + 8
Schilling + 8
Speaker Madigan loses 12 seats
US House loses 62 seats
Comment by Louis Howe Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:49 pm
Quinn has come back from the dead because the suburban vote is not as pro-Brady as it otherwise should be. I’m very surprised Quinn has made it so close, but I will give the narrowest of edges to Brady.
Alexi squeaks by based on good city turnout and the fact that the undecideds in the late polling in the Senate race are an unusually Dem-friendly group this year.
Kinzinger and Schilling pick up House seats for the Republicans; Seals gets one for the Democrats and Foster sticks around.
62 votes for Mike Madigan for Speaker.
Comment by 60611 Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:54 pm
I’ll trade the governor, comptroller, and cash for Senator, two congressional seats,two first round draft picks and a state rep to be named later.
Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:57 pm
Hoffman +6 over Kay
Comment by Highland, IL Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 12:59 pm
Brady by 3
Kirk by more than 3
Hultgren
Schilling
Kinzinger
Bean (but waay waaay closer than a moderate “business oriented” Dem with an iffy R. opponent should have been. If there was one district in America where an incumbent should have been smart and independent enough to listen to her constituents and veer away from her party by voting against Obamacare it was Bean’s 8th. That vote really hurt her badly. Walsh was a gift she did not deserve.)
Dold (With no degree of certainty. If he wins it’ll be by a hair, if he loses it will be by a hair. Like someone else already mentioned I have been shocked by the lack of reliable polling for this race. Seals’ name recognition may help him but having lost twice before in the 10th is not the type of name recognition most candidates would necessarily crave.)
Schakowsky (But Pollack will get a much higher percentage of votes than many people expect and we will definitely be seeing him again. His credentials work in that evolving district demographic in some ways better than Jan’s.)
Rutherford (no matter how he pronounces his name)
JBT
Jesse White
Prekwinkel
Claypool (lots of R’s voting for Claypool)
Comment by Responsa Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:00 pm
Junkmail Junkas by 4 over Blagojevich lackey McCarthy.
Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Kirk + 3
Brady +4
Rutherford + 4
Topinka + 8
Madigan + 20
White + 18
Bean + 11
Seals + 1
Kinzinger + 9
Hultgren + 1
Schilling + 4
Party motivation plays a big role, as the numbers are large outside of Chicagoland. The motivation to remove Chicago leadership for the state creates a nice win for Brady, Rutherford and Schilling. Kirk benefits from that as well. Congressional races come down to the campaigns and the candidates. Bean hammers Walsh, and his poorly run campaign, even as Republican’s do well in her district, again. Seals and Hultgren split the squeakers.
Comment by A.B. Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:02 pm
Quinn & Brady (probably going to go to recount)
Alexi over Kirk (I just can’t bring myself to vote for kirk don’t trust him and I feel many people will feel that way).
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:02 pm
Quinn +1
Kirk +3
Rutherford +8
Topinka +12
White +22
Madigan +10
Bean +4
Seals+1
Kinzinger +3
Foster +1
Comment by T Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:11 pm
Alexi by less then 1%, and it will be a long week, not night.
Quinn by 2%
Bean by 6%
Illinois is not like the other states, The GOTV is going to be massive…This is going to be one of the only places in the country that the Dems will shine, If that’s what ya call it.
Comment by VoterUSA Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:13 pm
Quinn and a recount. His tenure has revealed lots of flaws, but the demographics are with him. In the recount, he pulls it out by a whisker. Sigh.
Lisa and Jesse for sure, but I would add Judy.
A vote for her is kind of a far too late vote against Blagojevich. Makes us feel better.
Alexi/Kirk, I have absolutely no idea. It won’t matter much over the next two years, anyway, as the makeup of the new Congress will undoubtedly lead to stalemate.
Comment by cassandra Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:15 pm
Brady, Kirk, both barely
White, Madigan, Rutherford and Topinka.
In the US House - Seals, Bean, Foster and Kinzinger
Mike Madigan keeps 62 seats
John Cullerton’s majority narrows but holds.
Toni Preckwinkle and Tom Dart roll in Cook County.
AND RAHM EMANUEL FOR MAYOR PETITIONERS WILL BE OUTSIDE EVERY HOTEL DOWNTOWN TOMORROW!!!
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:20 pm
I still maintain Nixon’s “Silent Majority” is going to show up and it will be pretty much a GOP sweep at the State level except for Lisa and Jesse. Don’t have a clue as to how big the margins will be, but I expect the Gov race will be the closest.
Comment by Retired Non-Union Guy Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:28 pm
The story will be the blowouts at the top of the ticket.
Brady has pulled away and wins by 4%
Kirk has distanced himself from AG and wins by 4%
Kinzinger +8
Seals +2
Schilling +6
Hultgren +3
Bean +1
Down ticket winners:
Rutherford
Madigan
White
Topinka (unfortunately)
I think the US House is going BIG to the GOP with 70+ seats changing hands. I think the senate splits (temporarily) 50/50 with Nelson and/or Lieberman switching over soon after the election.
Comment by Logical Thinker Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:29 pm
Well, candidates come & candidates go,
But Mike M will have the final say so.
Same as it ever was… Same as it ever was…
Oy!
Comment by Statewide Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:30 pm
Brady +2 (fades a bit on women vote)
Kirk +4
Schilling +4 (very good final push)
Seals +6 (Dold never really caught on)
Bean +8
Kinzinger +14
Foster +2 (good late ads)
Comment by Another Anonymous Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:37 pm
Quinn can’t seem to break 40% and still won’t tomorrow. Brady by 5%.
Kirk gets lucky and catches wave that will bring down Bean,Seals,Foster and Halverson.
IL has been blue but the GOP was fighting they are not any more, and the Democrats are. GOP wave is cleans house.
Comment by votecounter Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:41 pm
Kirk…cause the outside negative ads on Alexi are just awesome
Quinn….cause his closing positive and the recurrent negative
are good and he’s a good closer
the other statewides are clear from the polls
Claypool…cause the Republicans and the reform dems meet
on one candidate
Seals…..if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again
Comment by Amalia Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:47 pm
Peraica will lose - then storm the McCook Village Hall … Peraica will then claim, “this is America, every vote should count, but votes for me are worth a bit more …”
Have fun storming the castle, Tony!
(his ‘jingle’ from last year) Tony Peraica!
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:54 pm
Schilling over Hare by a double chin.
Comment by Keyser Soze Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 1:55 pm
Hey!, we forgot to pick a winner in the 40 day term for U.S. Senate… The way things look, no one will serve.
Comment by VoterUSA Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:00 pm
Hard to disagree with Nate Silver’s predictions on 538, overall. They look pretty good to me.
I still think Foster has a shot and a better chance of retaining his seat than Phil Hare. And Alexi should be considered the underdog but he’s not out of the running, with a better than expected Dem GOTV.
I can’t really disagree with any of 538’s picks here but if there are upsets those would be my two.
Comment by ZC Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:04 pm
Brady by 1.5 points over Quinn
Alexi pulls out a sqeeker by
Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:10 pm
It’s going to be a bloodbath, unfortunately:
Schilling 53-46
Kirk 49-44 (Jones 5 and Labno 2)
Brady 46-44 (Cohen 5, Whitney 4)
Comment by 17th Blue Dog Dem Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:12 pm
Lot of wishful thinking, but here’s my 2 cents on statewide and a few congressional and state house races:
U.S. Senate: Kirk
Governor/Lt. Governor — Brady/Plummer
SoS: White (this is too easy)
AG: Madigan (again, too easy)
Treas: Rutherford (It’s a Republican year)
Compt: Topinka (again, Republican year, and voters know they wronged her when re-electing Blagojevich 4 years ago)
Congress, 8th: Bean (Walsh was just too weak of an opponent)
10th: Seals (Dold’s ads, while entertaining, were just too hokish)
14th: Hultgren (but barely)
22nd Legislative: Rauschenberger (Dems lose Noland seat to the old war house who represented it for 14 years)
25th Legislative: Lauzen (should be his last term)
43rd representative: Munson (it’s a Republican year, even in this swing district — Farnham needed a presidential election turnout and he’s not going to get it)
Comment by The Oncoming Storm Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:14 pm
Dont know what happened to my post. Anyway, Alexi by
Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:14 pm
Brady +1
Kirk +2
Schilling +3
Comment by Downstate Dem Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:17 pm
I forgot to indicate how bad things will be:
After believing the Senate race could be undecided for days or even weeks, I actually predict they will call for Kirk by 8:30 or 9; not even a late night.
Brady and Quinn is going to end up being the real horserace; who could have predicted that? It is stunning how quickly the bottom collapsed on Alexi after he stayed in the race for so long against long odds.
Hare is toast; spend an hour in the 17th and you’d be surprised by anyone who thinks this will be competitive, let alone who thinks Hare will win.
Comment by 17th Blue Dog Dem Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:18 pm
Brady, Alexi, Lisa, Jesse, Judy, Jesse, and Dan. cross nets 8 but short of control, radagno nets 6 but short of control.
Comment by erin 17 Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:09 pm
Despite all the Alexi predictions here, I just cannot believe the voters of Illinois will favor a young, first time officeholder with a mixed record of public and private performance over a congressman who has a (albeit exaggerated) 20-year military service record, has significant experience with foreign policy issues, and has been elected five times from a tightly split district. Especially not this year, with winds blowing strongly rightward nationally.
Kirk +6
Comment by Bluejay Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:16 pm
I think the near-misses will be interesting.
Jan Schakowsky wins by two points.
Tom Kilbride is retained by three points.
Madigan wins by four points.
Whitney gets more votes than SLC, Brady wins.
Comment by Jake from Elwood Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:30 pm
Alexi with a possible recount
Brady by 1-2%
Jesse & Lisa by 35% or more
Topinka by 15%
Rutherford by 3-4%
Seals by 4%
Kinzinger by 3-4%
Foster by 2-3%
Hare eeks out a win by 1% or less
Bean by 5%
Kilbride retained with 65%
Comment by Anon Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:45 pm
After looking at the EV and AV county numbers from the big Democrat counties and some of the smaller southern Republican counties I pick Quinn and Alexi.
There doesn’t appear to be a big wave of Republican votes vs Democrat votes in the south.
Good news for the Dems.
Comment by (618) Democrat Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:56 pm
In my Republican neighborhood the party is so quiet you wouldn’t even know there is an election. The few Democrats are near comatose but restless, so who knows. But Republicans do show up and vote like clockwork, Democrats don’t. The Republican women however, as much as they may dislike the real Bill Brady, are not enamored with Quinn, so I think they just don’t vote in that race. So where does that leave us?
PQ/BB too close to call, both will get less than 50%
Kirk, unless lots of Repubs misremember to vote
Lisa/Jesse/JBT all easy winners
Rutherford, just barely, but Kelly could surprise
Foster
Comment by anon sequitor Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 4:13 pm
I nearly always vote D, but here are my predictions:
Brady +3
Kirk +2 (if you asked me last April, I would have predicted Kirk +10, I am surprised how his campaign wilted under the spotlight)
Kinzinger +10
Bean +10
Foster +4
Seals +2 (infrastructure, endorsements, name i.d. and voters finally able to vote for Kirk and Seals pushes him over the finish line. I just don’t see Dold peeling away D’s from Seals like Kirk has in the past.)
Comment by anon Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 4:58 pm
Bluejay, you may be right about Kirk, but you are wrong about the political wind blowing to the right. It is blowing against Washington insiders, which gives Giannoulias some (slim) hope tonight. In a “throw the bums out” year, Kirk is the more obvious bum in this particular race.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 5:01 pm
Brady, Kirk, Hultgren, Judy, Rutherford, Kinzinger, Seals and Berrios.
Why, for the most part the Dems fail to get massive turnout in the city and the collars play more Republican this time around.
It’s going to be a throw them out election.
In terms of % Brady by 4, Hultgren by 5%, Judy 12%, Rutherford 4%, Kirk 3%, Berrios 7%, Seals 2%
Comment by OneMan Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 5:05 pm
Kirk by 40,000 votes
Brady by 6%
Seals by 2%
Hultgren, Shilling and AK win by more than 4%
Topinka tops 58%
Surprise of the night….Dave Lenkowski (not going to win) but will turn heads.
Comment by ChicagoRed Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 5:33 pm
I think Quinn because the devil you know will win out over I’m going to cut 10%, I’m just not going to tell you how.I think Kirk because again the devil you know is better than vote for me because Prsident Obama likes me. The difference between these two races is the unions will be 100% for quinn and will get out vote. Those same people will not support Alexi as strongly
Comment by Anonymouse Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 7:20 pm
Bill, I am quite concerned. I also believe everyone I’m voting for is going to win, but I’m pretty certain we are not voting for the same people. One of us is WRONG, or you are a closet R.
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 9:06 pm
Quinn = 1,541,460
Brady = 1,532,103
Whitney& Cohen = 393,819
Comment by illinoispoliticsaintbeanbag Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:40 pm
Quinn = 1,541,460
Brady = 1,532,103
Whitney& Cohen = 393,819
Final by Friday Quinn by 9,357
Comment by illinoispoliticsaintbeanbag Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:43 pm
Man- I would like to sell some of the posters a bridge I have shares in!
It will be over early for Gov and Senate. Brady by 4%+; Kirk just under that; Rutherford by 2%; Topinka by almost 10%; Jessie and Lisa Madigan by 20%. Congressional races will be close- big upset in Quad Cities with Hare getting upset, albiet by only a few thousand votes. Big race in metro area isn’t Shimkus- he easily wins by 25%- but state rep race of Jay (Blago Jr.) Hoffman and Dwight Kay. Still too close to call- Hoffman probably scrapes by with help from Madison Co party, but I hope not. But- close race.
IFT and Afsme big losers this election.
Comment by Roy Slade Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 11:44 pm
I’m late to this game…
Alexi narrowly wins over Kirk
Brady narrowly wins over Quinn
Madigan wins over Kim
White solidly defeats Enriquez
Topinka wins over Miller
Rutherford narrowly defeats Kelly
Kinzinger wins over Halvorson, but its closer than expected
Schilling defeats Hare
Foster, Bean, and Seals all win, but its very close in all three races.
Comment by Ben S. Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:54 pm