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*** UPDATE 1 *** From Crain’s…
City turnout was 49.75% in 2006. This time, turnout seems to be particularly good on the North Side lakefront and in scattered areas of the South Side, like the 8th Ward, but weak on the West Side.
In suburban Cook County, Clerk David Orr and aides are saying they, too, look like they’ll hit the 50% mark and perhaps go a bit higher.
House GOP Leader Tom Cross reported a good turnout Downstate, even perhaps “historic high” levels in Central Illinois, the backyard of GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady.
Other Republican sources said turnout in two collar county areas is “about average.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** The Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights has a GOTV program and is tracking their results. I asked for an update. Here it is…
Hi Rich. Our goal is to increase turnout 3% over 2006 levels in our targeted precincts. We are on track in some of the Chicago Latino areas and in the Asian / mixed areas, and light in some of the city Latino areas. We are light in Aurora, on track in the SW suburban Arab areas, and very heavy in the mixed Muslim / white parts of Dupage we are working in. Overall not horrible news for the Dems, but not good news either. I was reading the blog and this does not clear up the turnout mystery, but it confirms some of what is being stated.
Hope this is helpful. By the way, we will have made close to 500,000 live calls when all of this is done, between Illinois Immigrant Action and ICIRR. I don’t know how many got answered (will eventually have a report) but it looks from your blog that this puts us up pretty high in terms of people doing actual real work. We have GOTV in 17 communities.
* Dan White of the State Board of Elections prognosticates about statewide turnout…
“We’re expecting an average turnout,” White said of today’s vote. “It’s good. It’ll be a little bit above 50 percent.”
White said Chicago and Cook County are projecting a turnout of about 53 percent at mid-day. White said turnout also is higher in some downstate areas, including Sangamon County, where Springfield is located.
* I just spoke with Jim Allen at the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners.
“Right now,” Allen said. “it looks like we’re heading into the low 50s” for city turnout.
However, Allen added a huge caveat. “The big question is whether we’re heading into an evening rush.” The city hasn’t had an evening voter rush in the last two elections, the 2010 primary and the 2008 general. The city board was a bit redfaced two years ago when they declared morning turnout indicated an 80 percent rate, but the lack of an evening rush led to a 71.5 percent turnout. And the ‘08 primary’s evening rush wasn’t that significant, either, Allen said.
There are a lot of factors at play here. Grace period voting, early voting, absentee voting, people don’t have jobs or they have jobs that they can’t leave, etc.
If history repeats itself and there’s no evening rush, Allen says the city is looking at “barely” 50 percent, or maybe even 49 percent.
As noted below, most prognosticators believe that Pat Quinn and Alexi Giannoulias need at least a 50 percent turnout in the city.
* Another silly lede…
Voter turnout at some precincts in the South Side neighborhood of Englewood appears down considerably from the presidential election two years ago.
You can’t compare presidential elections to off-year elections. Sheesh. However, this next graf is interesting…
Tyrone Blanton, a poll worker at the 21st precinct in the 3rd Ward, said 308 of the 341 registered voters turned out during the election that put President Barack Obama in office. But today, as of 1 p.m., only 67 people had cast ballots.
That’s low. Very low.
Yet, Toni Preckwinkle’s people are projecting a city/county turnout akin to 2006, which is what the Democrats need. As a good friend of mine just said when we were discussing all the conflicting turnout reports…
God I hate election day
Heh.
* I think WLS Radio is trying to be Drudge bait. Their stories and, especially, their headlines lately are just off the wall. Check out their latest headline…
Many problems reported at polls, precincts opening late
The actual story…
There have been scattered problems reported this morning. The Cook County Clerk’s Office says five precincts did not open on time, so the Clerk will be asking a judge to allow them to stay open past 7 tonight. Three of those late opening precincts are in Proviso Township in the Western suburbs and two in Northfield Township in the Northern suburbs.
“Scattered” problems in a few suburban precincts ain’t “many” problems.
* Tell us more about your precincts, towns, etc. How’s it going out there? We’ve had the best, most widespread field reports in comments than you’ll find anywhere else. Keep them coming!
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 2:55 pm
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Rich - 3rd Ward, 21st precinct had 141 votes in 2006. 67 at midday is low, but not dreadfully.
Comment by Jo Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 2:58 pm
Agreed about Karen May — she’s generally well liked in the district and apart from a modest last-minute push from the GOP I haven’t sensed they’ve invested much in this race, so if she loses it means a GOP tidal wave.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 2:59 pm
In my northwest suburb today a man was turned away and told he was ’suspended’ for not having registered at his current address (where he’s lived for 8 years). The man was argumentative and upset and said it was the third place he’d been to today. Otherwise, there was a good crowd this morning and a nice line to the door.
Comment by Duper Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:00 pm
Sorry I clicked say it right after request to move to new post (my first time!)
Voted in Sangamon County Capital 30 precinct at about 1:45pm. I was #802 (wife was #801). There were two precincts at our location (think the other was Capital 51). Every booth was in use and immediately taken by another voter. No one in line when I came in, 3-4 waiting for a booth when I left. Only signs outside were for Brady, no one outside. No problems, one person spoiled their ballot and problem was handled immediately.
Drove past a polling place on the east side of Springfield afterwards going to the post office: more signs there, several were for the 1% sales tax for education facilities question.
Wife said the crowd at our polling place was the largest since they last had the fish fry!
Comment by anon 62707 Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:02 pm
Somebody help me out here. If we’re looking at statewide turnout of about 50%, and Chicago/Cook is projecting 53%, doesn’t that suggest that downstate is going to be substantially lower than 50%?
And on the issue of an evening rush: What was weather like in the previous two elections? And had we moved to standard time by Nov. 2 during those years?
Comment by I was told there would be no math Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:06 pm
McHenry County as of 1:30 is up over the 2006 GE, at this pint.
Comment by VoterUSA Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:06 pm
sorry, “POINT”, I think I need a Pint at this Point..lol
Comment by VoterUSA Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:08 pm
Several precincts at the Urbana campus of U of I are setting all time voter turnout records. Maybe a potential downstate bright spot for the statewide Dem candidates.
Comment by U of I student Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:13 pm
Du Page Cty ’slow and steady’ almost all precincts. Most about 25-30% by 2:30. Need a big end of day rush to hit over 50%
Comment by Park Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:14 pm
Just checked. We had moved to standard time before the last two elections. It will be lighter later today, which may (or may not) have an impact on a possible evening rush.
Comment by I was told there would be no math Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:15 pm
Tinley Park church with six precincts (McCarthy v Junkas state house)…20% by noon and next count in 45.
Comment by COPN Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:16 pm
Time change, slight weather changes are not gonna crash an evening rush like that two elections in a row.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:17 pm
@VoterUSA who does that help ? Dem or Repub
Comment by DoubleDown Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:17 pm
Walked in and was done in 10 minutes. Judges said they were a little busier than usual and were ahead of last election’s pace. They had no idea on percentages.
Comment by zatoichi Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:19 pm
As a U of I alum, I’ll tell you that there are a surprising number of kids from downstate who might be registered in Champaign county who could just as easily break against the conventional wisdom. Having been down there on Saturday for the football game, there were a great deal of Brady signs around campus. Surprising actually.
Comment by Logical Thinker Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:20 pm
We are looking at about 50% turnout in Kendall County right now with a few of the heavy Republican precincts slightly higher.
Comment by Oswego Joe Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:29 pm
To previous poster, I foresee no impact on Sangamon Cty govt. workers related to the AFSCME endorsement. Those folks are voting based on the last 8 years of working in state govt., not on what their union tells them.
Comment by Pundeete Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:32 pm
U of I campus went over 80% to Obama and durbin, upper 70s to most deems in ‘08. Probably will be closer to 70 this year, but still very democratic
Comment by Uigrad2 Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:34 pm
Just voted in IL-14 at 3pm, and there was a nice steady stream of voters there. I accidentally voted yes on the recall choice, then decided it could be a good first step towards accountability so I didn’t start over. Ended up holding my nose and voting Dem again, then stood there staring at the final printout for a full minute. “Should I vote Green instead? Kirk isn’t that bad, is he? Lauzen or Juby?” Etc.
Then a voting judge escorted an elderly gentleman to the booth next to me. I figured he used to be 5′8″ before gravity brought him down to 5′0″. He was shuffling up the hall of the school when I walked in and finally made it to the booth.
The judge asked what his disability was. “I’m blind…well legally….” So the judge started to read the recall amendment to him, and then moved on to the candidates.
He said, “Can I save you some trouble by just having you vote for all the Democrats?” That sold it for me, and I was on my way.
Comment by Lefty Lefty Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:39 pm
downstate (NW IL) for the first time in my life my polling place had a line (2pm) — 4 deep when I arrived. 2 precincts at the polling place — they lean R. Turn out at 2pm at my precinct aprx 37%.
Comment by justsickofit Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:40 pm
Most college kids are registered to vote in their home areas. The Champaign-Urbana vote came from those rather liberal U of I employees!
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:40 pm
Voting is actually a lot of fun. Too bad more people don’t do it.
Comment by bdogg Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:49 pm
Just voted on Springfield’s Southwest side. Place is pretty full for 3:30 PM in the afternoon.
This morning I asked two of neighbors about the Gov’s race. One is a retired state worker the other still working at the state. Both said they left the Gov’s race blank and they didn’t like either one.
Comment by Give Me A Break Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:51 pm
I believe a retired state worker might leave the Gov race blank, but not a current state worker. May have been pulling your leg. Of course they don’t like either one, but who wins will make a big difference to state workers.
Comment by DuPage Dave Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:59 pm
Wally,
There are entire precincts of just campus town eg. Cc5 and they turned out.
Comment by Uigrad2 Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:01 pm
anyone see a white flag above the governors mansion yet?
Comment by Foster Brooks Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:02 pm
in northern Will. Was told I couldn’t stand in the parking lot even though it’s beyond the 100 ft. point. Huge sherriff’s police came and told me to stand 125 ft away. They don’t understand radius.The intimidation isn’t working.
Comment by Who Cares Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:06 pm
@foster brooks
It’s not like he lives there….
Comment by Crow04 Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:08 pm
I just voted in Tazewell county a little bit ago, turn in that precinct is at 43%.
Comment by RMW Stanford Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:08 pm
Question about turnout: When people talk about what percentage turnout is at in various parts of the state right now, is early voting included in that?
Comment by Chicago Voter Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:15 pm
Just dropped off a snack for my favorite election judge at a precinct in Northfield;(IL House 17th) and turn out there was 62% @ 4:00 p.m.
I am told the precinct is predominantly right-center and will likely go close to 80% for Kirk, Dold, Chang and Claypool. Brady may well get swept up in the up-draft.
I will see if I can get another update at 6:00. Any excuse to visit my favorite judge works for me.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:21 pm
Tinley Park church with six precincts at 32% after post school pick up…seems low compared to some of these 40%+ claims
Comment by COPN Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:23 pm
I’m shilling for a site I truly admire here, but since I know Rich appreciates their work, I’ll pass it on:
538 is live-blogging national returns at the NYT tonight. Promises to be wonky and probably entertaining.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/live-blogging-election-night/
Comment by Concerned Observer Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:26 pm
At 1 PM my precinct in Springpatch had about a 12.5% in person turnout. Bit surprised it wasn’t higher, they generally get out and vote. The demographics are older / better educated / conservative / above average income. May be more of a squeaker if this is indicative.
Comment by Retired Non-Union Guy Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:32 pm
Chicago Voter: no, I didn’t include early voting in my numbers. Just registered voters compared to valid ballot applications. the Records provided to judges in DuPage are pretty good…they clearly indicate who voted early, with directions to not let them vote again.
Comment by Park Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:32 pm
As of 4pm in the 44th Ward (near Sheffield/Wellington): pct 14, 164 votes cast (28%) and pct 20, 182 votes cast (26%). This is not good news for Dems.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:35 pm
Re: University of Illinois turnout
FWIW, in Champaign County in 2006 the breakdown was 53% JBT, 29% Rod, 17%(!!!) Whitney.
It wouldn’t surprise me if there were U of I students turning out to vote for Alexi who either go Green or protest vote Brady.
Blagojevich and the state’s Democrats have treated the U of I and higher education in general pretty shabbily the last 10 years and it wouldn’t surprise me if Quinn paid the price for that even if Brady hasn’t really made much of a case on being good for them the way that past Republican governors were in better economic times.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:48 pm
I vote in the City of Springfield - Capital Precinct 99. Turnout appears to be very good. It was full when I voted at about 2:00 p.m. Poll workers said there has been a steady stream of voters all day long, including periods where there have been lines waiting to vote (not long lines but lines nonetheless). I’m guessing, based on what I saw and heard, that voting in my precinct will be above the last comparable election.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:52 pm
By the way I believe I was voter 515 or somewhere in there out of 900+ in the precinct. Greater than 50% turnout as of 2:00.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:57 pm
One thing to watch in the city is the jewish vote. Kirk has thousands of kirk for senate signs out in the city in hebrew and is a real force in that community. A lot of the turnout will be israel voters supporting Kirk.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:00 pm
Reporting that city vote in my area of Chicago is horrid… 80 votes as of 5 pm in my precinct. 2006 had 200 votes here.
Comment by ok Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:05 pm
Turnout is high in some parts of Williamson County. There are reports that some precincts are running out of ballots and calling the courthouse for more.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:05 pm
Let’s move our precinct reports to a fresh post, shall we? Thanks much.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:16 pm