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* Now what?
Answer any way you like, but keep it Illlinois-related.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:05 am
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Previous Post: Brady to speak soon - Won’t concede - 30-day wait - AUDIO - Chicago board of elections explains - Quinn all but declares victory… Again
Next Post: The count in Cook
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now they have to govern.
not because of the election results but because the fiscal constraints on the state cant take anymore kicking the can down the road.
Comment by Gunner the Runner Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:08 am
Wow, can Brady get in close elections. I suggest a forensic audit of the ballots and see what those results are.
Chicago elections is now what. Rich, you never get a break, do you?
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:08 am
All that I can see is that the citizens of Illinois are in trouble. We have been under Dem rule in this state for many years. Under this Dem rule, we now have a budget catastrophe. And the response of the voters of Cook County was to put the Dems in office again? Someone explain that logic please.
Comment by DRB Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:09 am
Since Dold ran on “Let’s Get To Work,” I’m waiting anxiously for his answer to “Where are the jobs?”
Comment by Jack S. Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:09 am
Cook County government reboot.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:10 am
Abandon all Hope, Ye Illinoisians.
Seriously, as goofy as he is Quinn seems willing to somewhat deal with the fiscal problems of the state and the regrettable need for a tax increase.
Now is the time to do it.
Comment by IrishPirate Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:10 am
How about a state electoral college for those of you who don’t like the fact that a candidate could win the rest of the state but lose the whole election because of Chicago?
Comment by Levois Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:10 am
Now we wait for the Federal bailout that isn’t coming since the GOP took the House. Short of that… maybe Mexican bonds don’t look that bad.
Comment by The 'Dale to HPark Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:10 am
I am just shocked Melissa Bean lost (or will lose). To a guy who has no business being in the Congress and has no money. What interests me is REMAP!!!! Plus JOBS JOBS JOBS. I hope the national GOP does not drag us through a mess with the Governor’s race if Brady is behind more than 2k in votes by next week.
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:11 am
Lisa Madigan shows her legal chops and successfully helps Illinois declare bankruptcy, defeating a challenge by tea party activists who argue Chapter 9 of the bankruptcy code can’t be used by state governments.
Comment by Joliet Jackhammers, RIP Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:12 am
Well first, I’d like some sleep. Then a nice cup of tea.
Statewise, Dems still control the legislature, so if Quinn holds onto the lead, not much changes.
Comment by MKA1985 Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:13 am
income tax increase!
Comment by dave Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:14 am
Brady starts collectin petitions for a Recall of Quinn. Quinn, files a lawsuit claiming the Recall is unconstitutional.
Comment by Da Ship Be Sinking Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:14 am
1.) Invent flux capacitor
2.) Buy DeLorean and plutonium
3.) Travel back to February, find 200 more votes for Dillard
4.) Profit
Comment by Peter Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:14 am
It is time for the GOP and DEMS to put aside their differences and work together to solve the States financial problems. That means budget cuts and a raise in the income tax. It is time for Cross to put some votes on any bill calling for a tax increase. He has been a ” do nothing ” leader for too long. The voters want all elected off icials to come together and resolve the problem.
Ignoring the problem and sticking your head in the sand will not do. Get to work !
Comment by MOON Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:15 am
Levois: last I checked 22% of the people of Illinois live in Chicago and 76% of the people of Illinois lives in the Chicago metro area.
Comment by The 'Dale to HPark Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:15 am
Yup. Who cares about the budget deficit? Springfield will be focused on remaps.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:15 am
Scott Lee Cohen rents out his services as a professional “Election Wrecker”..
Comment by Anonymous Coward Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:15 am
Look back fondly on Roland Burris era.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:17 am
“Statewise, Dems still control the legislature, so if Quinn holds onto the lead, not much changes.”
Pretty much have to agree with that. Cook County wise, Toni just stated this morning that she is not going to abolish the sales tax increase, or at least not in her first year.
So… while everything seems to be changing around IL, The Machine just keeps on ticking.
Comment by ChrisChicago82-Independent Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:17 am
@Jack S –
Dold will get busy with individualizing (aka privatizing) social security so there’s some jobs there for Wall Street millionaires…
OK… where are the other jobs…
Well — he’d also like to keep rewarding big companies for outsourcing so the answer to “Where are the jobs?” is of course China.
Better pack up and learn Mandarin — or become a Wall Street pinstriper.
Comment by G. Willickers Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:17 am
Wouldn’t Chicago still have more electorants? (I guess that isn’t a word.)
Anyway, the election hasn’t been certified, yet. I am trying to think of a way that absentee ballots could be counted as they come in, but then, those results would start to leak out, I suppose.
Has any candidate ever won a recount when there are a few thousand votes to find? And as I recall, it isn’t a state wide re-count, you have to identify precincts that you think there were irregularities in.
Comment by PPHS Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:17 am
…the media continues to cover the Chicago mayoral election.
Comment by A.B. Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:20 am
Rule # 1 - When your expenses exceed your revenues, you WILL fail.
Rule # 2 - Focus on correcting rule #1!
It will not be easy, popular or pleasant. Lets man up and get to work!
Comment by Say WHAT? Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:21 am
I think we were in trouble fiscally with either candidate - Quinn with tax and spend - Brady with his head in the sand. Regardless of who ends up being the winner I think the citizens of the state are the loser. I think much of hte electorate would have liked better candidates from both parties for governor and US senator.
Comment by Fed-Up Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:22 am
Wow lots of whining about 3 time loser Seals falling short once again. Maybe Seals Oberwise Wardingly and Doc Walls can put together their own political party.
Comment by Fed up Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:22 am
Somehwere there is a pile of empty red bull cans with Barton passed out on top of them….
Now is the time for all elected officials to come to the aid of the budget and solve the probem we have been putting off for the election.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:22 am
The Senate will pass an income tax increase. The House will not. Quinn will have to operate the state with only borrowing and cutting authority. Rinse and repeat x4.
Comment by siriusly Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:23 am
ChrisChicago82, she’s been saying that since before the primary.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:23 am
Predictions: Tax increase to balance the budget with promises to help education, human services, etc. that will not materialize. Reconciliation of Quinn and unions stops major pension reform; pension liability remains unaddressed. Discussion of new leadership rules will not amount to anything. Creation of even more committees and subcommittees to keep members happy and distracted from big picture. Much chest beating and gloating by Statehouse Dems for stemming the national wave and maintaining control of both chambers. Quinn’s haphazard leadership continues.
Comment by Come on, now Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:23 am
Remap and anti-business initiatives will dominate the legislative session. Remap because it deals with individual survival and anti-business because it deals with labor retribution. A budget fix? The Democrats were rewarded for ignoring it, so why would anybody want to fix anything?
Comment by Sarge Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:24 am
Here is a good article, written after Thompson squeaked by Adlai, in 1982. http://www.lib.niu.edu/1991/ii910317.html
Until a majority of the citizens turn out to vote, a majority isn’t going to be happy with the results.
Comment by PPHS Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:27 am
“We’re going to pass a tax increase in January,” Vaught said. “We expect it is going to be substantial.
We don’t have a lame-duck legislature, and Quinn will probably be certified as winner well before January, so I would expect it in December. Call it a Christmas present, which in this state, is probably the best present they could give.
Comment by JN Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:28 am
If they want to do something about the fiscal disaster, the legislature will pass Quinn’s income tax increase. The GOP can rant and rave that we should cut spending and get rid of excess state jobs, but unless they are talking about reducing legislative salaries and pensions, everything is pretty much bare bones these days. I think we all know the answer to whether or not that is what they want to cut.
Comment by Draznnl (Rhymes with orange) Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:28 am
Quinn is Governor, the Democrats control the General Assembly and Kilbride won retention.
I see a wonderful redistricting map in our future.
Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:29 am
The Tribune closes their doors !
Carol Marin retires her present position and becomes the public relation spoke person for Jim Houlihan and Forest Claypool !
Comment by MOON Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:29 am
Media: Chicago & Rahm. Blago Redux.
General Assembly: Same old. Combine. More taxes. No fumigation. No light on patronage & the real waste and corruption.
Gov. & GA: Spending talk, Blame pensions on state workers not themselves, Politic for next election.
Comment by JustaJoe Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:29 am
Lisa Madigan realizes she Attorney General and investigates the deals Quinn made with labor unions in exchange for endorsements and cash. Quinngets recalled and state goes deeper and deeper in the red
Comment by Fed up Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:29 am
===so I would expect it in December.===
They’re not meeting in December and they’d need a three-fifths majority in both chambers to do it.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:30 am
@ChrisChicago82-Independent:
I disagree — we are in for a generation or more of complete Dem rule. Because now that the GOP lacks control over any chamber (and, therefore, the ability to object to the map), the map the Dems draw will decimate a GOP candidate’s chances of getting elected. However, maybe then, after complete and total Dem rule for a generation or more, the people will finally repudiate them. But I doubt it.
Comment by Pembleton Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:31 am
How soon does Kirk get sworn in? Unfortunately, Burris is now thinking about running for mayor. Retire now without another embarassing loss Roland.
Comment by Tom Joad Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:34 am
Let’s hope the politicians get the message. State Senate — which has actually shown some leadership in this crisis — Dems lose a mere two seats. Statistical noise. State House — a good stiff shot across Madigan’s bows. Does he interpret it accurately as “You broke it, you fix it” or does he push more of the same CYA? Governor — Quinn comes roaring back after firing his overcautious consultants, and while advocating a tax increase that has a clearly earmarked purpose.
The congressional election of course is a lot of very mixed messages, most of them scary. But that’s another story.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:34 am
Dumb question…
Does the Green Party remain an established party after only getting 3% last night?
Comment by UISer Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:37 am
I see a revenues modernization for state government, and the Democrats in Washington attempting to reform campaign financing to cut away at the Republican and overseas anonymous donations by addressing that terrible Supreme Court decision. The Republicans will resist, re-enforcing that they are the national party of big money interests and not ethics in campaigning.
Comment by Capitol View Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:37 am
I predicte lawsuits when it comes to the remap. Everbody is already sick of the gerrymandering. Lots and lots of lawsuits.
Comment by Fed up Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:38 am
As for what is next.
We need an income tax increase, like yesterday…
They need to do it as soon as possible.
Comment by UISer Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:38 am
@Come On, Now — I hope you’re wrong. I think the part of the picture you’re missing is Mike Madigan. If he stays in the CYA school of governance, your scenario will likely happen regardless. If he shows some leadership, then it comes down to the governor’s Faustian bargain with the unions.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:39 am
Get the budget on track. Cut a lot, tax on some services, temp. income tax increase.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:39 am
Anyone got a spare $13 billion or so?
Comment by John Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:39 am
If you haven’t left Illinois yet. Now is the time.
Comment by Living in Oklahoma Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:40 am
Lisa Madigan runs for Mayor, Tom Dart appointed Attorney General
Comment by ILPundit Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:41 am
Now we become the least business-friendly state in the union. Quinn and Kirk have absolutely no knowledge of running a business, what it takes to run a business, and how to improve upon that business. Now, media becomes the message. All hail the new flesh!
Comment by Heartless Libertarian Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:41 am
Capitalview
Nice lipservice to campaign reform I see Rangel is still on ways and means. Yeah Nancy really drained the swamp. And to keep it local I bet you didn’t object to any of Quinns deals with the unions to get cash and endorsements.
Comment by Fed up Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:43 am
UISer, it takes 5 percent. They’re done.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:44 am
We should be happy we aren’t getting SLC. If the amount of money he spent on the campaign in order to garner 130,000 plus votes is any indication of his fiscal responsibility then Illionis is very lucky!
Comment by Fed-Up Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:44 am
What’s next - watch the House GOPs self-destruct.
If I’m a House Republican, I’m thinking two things.
1. We need a new leader.
2. Make nice with Speaker Madigan lest I be mapped in with one of my neighbors.
Cross grossly oversold his position. Of his net-six, as Rich pointed out, three were gimmes - Careen Gordon, the Boland seat and the Hannig seat. Flider and Smith should’ve gone in a wave too. Walker benefitted from the Obama wave. Hoffman might’ve been the only real surprise there.
It was a fool’s errand to go after McAsey and Jehan Gordon, but there were several other seats that Cross could’ve (some might argue should’ve) won but didn’t in Congressional districts that went red (Farnham, Crespo, Dugan, Biss, you get the picture).
The new map will not be kind to House Republicans who continue to follow Cross’ obstructionist path should he remain as leader. Any House R who follows Cross does so at his/her own peril.
Comment by Thoughts... Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:44 am
Now Aaron Schock starts to jockey for his next promotion…
Comment by A.B. Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:44 am
1) With 100% of the GOP a “no” vote, the Democrats will have to fall on the grenade of a tax hike without GOP support. Although not having Brady or Cross as a foil to help bear the burden, it’s a small price to pay for 100% control. The vote will occur as early as possible to distance itself as far aways as possible from an election day.
2) The map will be re-drawn, but since it was a D map to begin with, and the Obama 2008 results significantly skewed election demographics, the map will not radically change.
3) Several GOP pols immediately consider running for governor in 2014, but all eyes are on Lisa Madigan lest they pull a Joe Birkett and announce, then un-announce based on her decision.
4) Dan Duffy & Matt Murphy both drown their sorrows somewhere, kicking themselves that they weren’t the one’s that challenged Melissa Bean this year.
Comment by John Galt Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:49 am
==Carol Marin retires her present position and becomes the public relation spoke person for Jim Houlihan and Forest Claypool==
I thought that WAS her present position.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:49 am
A chance to remodel a governmental and tax system designed for the 19th century, but most likely the same old stuff we got day before yesterday. With redistricting and the full legislature up for election, the 2012 campaign begins in about 30 min.
Comment by WRMNpolitics Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:49 am
A newly emboldened Pat Quinn is going to try and stand up to Madigan. He isn’t going to succeed, but he is going to try. That will lead to much entertainment in Springfield.
Even though this should answer the question “can a social conservative win statewide in Illinois” once and for all. There will be those who feel moving to the right socially is the answer for the state GOP.
SLC thinks he is going to get something out of his run, considering how he seems to have responded to
indirect perceived threats before, part of me thinks he is expecting something. He isn’t going to get it and he is going to realize he spent 6 million dollars for a few more votes than Whitney got with next to nothing. He is going to be a problem for someone within 6 months.
Some sort of action (bond rating, the state not having enough cash on hand to pay folks) is going to go down before the end of the year.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:50 am
sadly, I suspect there are few changes regardless of who ultimately is governor. the few wins that the Repubs had aren’t enough to get Cross off his rear to actually lead and not just talk. If Quinn wins and gets his tax increase, there is no way the GA is going to let it be used to take care of existing education and pension or whatever it is he says he would use it for. the GA will see it as new money to do even more things that don’t make sense and rack up even more debt rather than take care of the deficit. I am so discouraged. Sigh.
my bright spot is Dan Rutherford winning as Treasurer.
Comment by Susie Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:54 am
Thoughts:
===
The new map will not be kind to House Republicans who continue to follow Cross’ obstructionist path should he remain as leader. Any House R who follows Cross does so at his/her own peril.
===
Isn’t that like a crocodile assuring a person that if they only feed him their arm that he won’t then go after the rest of the body?
Comment by John Galt Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:54 am
@ Angry Chicagoan - I included Madigan in my analysis. I do not foresee a change in leadership style. I also hope I am wrong - especially on this last point.
Comment by Come on, now Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:54 am
JG, you don’t understand legislators very much. They’re mostly about self-preservation.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:55 am
Same as it ever was.
Comment by We Todd Did Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:55 am
Well, the question is best put to the republicans.
The dems have run state government from top to bottom for the last 8 years looking to 12 now. Do you withhold any votes on a income tax increase and tell the dems you broke it, you fix it? Do they give them any votes at all?
The map will not be kind to the House republicans. So why put votes on the line, only to be screwed by the majority in the map. Will this accelerate republican retirements in the coming year as they will be a permanent minority.
Quinn has shown the ability to self destruct. But organized labor and the black voters of Chicago pulled him out of the fire. They were able to rally the base and turn out the votes inside the city they needed for the win.
So the republicans going forward need to have credible plans and alternatives to put down on the table. It will then be up to the democrats to decide if it’s all their way and if so then they have the votes to do most of it, except bonding. So you plan, your budget your votes.
This is the decision that the republicans will have to make; become democrat lite, or let them get out of the hole they dug by themselves. Which will it be?
Comment by todd Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:57 am
Several of us in Senator Brady’s district go back to oddly being thankful he’s our State Senator … at least it minimizes the damage he can do to the State and his colleagues can keep him from having any significant leadership roles.
Comment by ShadyBillBrady Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:59 am
==They’re not meeting in December==
Ahh, I should have known that.
So I guess we race California into bankruptcy? Sounds fun.
Comment by JN Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:59 am
Now we get back to work on removing Chicago from Illinois so the rest of us can live in a world of sanity.
Comment by Living in Oklahoma Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:02 pm
Wumpus, can we quit using the forensic audit, there was no crime committed here, except for the crime of having to choose from two pretty bad candidates to solve the problems the state is in.
Quinn must negotiate with Madigan and the Repubs to come to compromise on a solution of tax increases and cost cutting to balance the budget, can it be done, we shall see.
Comment by Jim Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:03 pm
Rich, I think that’s a sad reality. The reason Madigan et al keep on winning is they are working strategically, whilst most of the GOP still is in an every-man-for-himself/reaction mode. I can see how that could work on the federal level (i.e. once Roskam, Schock, etc. get to Washington, they don’t care about Madigan and he doesn’t care about them). But at the state level it’s short-term smart but long-term stupid.
Comment by John Galt Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:03 pm
We watch Madigan and Quinn put this state deeper in debt.
Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:03 pm
Lawsuits won’t stop gerrymandering — if the 4th Congressional district passes muster, ANYTHING passes muster.
Now what? A budget with a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts, with some token pension reform. Wish the latter weren’t so.
Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:04 pm
It may be sad, but it’s reality.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:04 pm
Labor costs (wages, health ins, work comp ins & pensions) will continue to rise much faster than revenues, even if an income tax is imposed. I don’t foresee anyone stepping up to make necessary changes. I’ll guess there’s a Federal bailout of Illinois in 5-7 years and the Illinois electorate still won’t learn anything from it.
Comment by Shemp Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:05 pm
Remap of state legislative districts is one thing but if Quinn wins, the the newly elected congressional reps should not make any long term plans, they will be remapped into obscurity by the Il Dem Senate and Reps. What is everyone else’s thoughts on this?
Comment by Mapper Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:06 pm
Living in Oklahoma, everyone would careless about Illinois if you got rid of Chicago. Think you’re ignored now? Try Illinois minus Chicago. You’d be Montana.
Comment by The 'Dale to HPark Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:11 pm
the remap will be ugly. the Rs have little chance to have any influence on what districts look like. and I think they did it to themselves, I am sorry to say. I happen to live in the 17th congressional district and I think it is equally or more embarrassing than the 4th. it will be redrawn so Schilling can’t win re-election and put it back into the Dems pocket. I’d like to move to the 18th district.
Comment by Susie Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:12 pm
==I’ll guess there’s a Federal bailout of Illinois in 5-7 years ==
Much sooner than that I think.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:12 pm
Coming up we will shortly see an announcement that Rich Miller is joining the Tribune editorial board, and the comptroller and treasurer have solved the budget crisis for the State.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:14 pm
Living in Oklahoma @12:02: Good luck getting by without our tax revenue.
Comment by Northsider Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:18 pm
Now will the Speaker, the President and the Governor unite on some idea that solves policy and not just elections?
Comment by D.P. Gumby Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:18 pm
the conservative movement has a heart to heart with itself.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:18 pm
Kay, Unes, Morthland, Rosenthal, and Brown should enjoy the next two years cause the remap will make them One Termers.
Comment by LameDuck Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:19 pm
What a relief to have a CC President that is not from the same crud we have been used to.
Comment by Third Generation Chicago Native Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:21 pm
“Try Illinois minus Chicago. You’d be Montana.” Is that good or bad?
Comment by Nuance Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:21 pm
Does anyone care about Montana?
Comment by The 'Dale to HPark Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:24 pm
Going forward, if Rich asks the question, have you ever seen a gov canidate come from 15 points behind…. we can now answer yes.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:24 pm
Okie, before you do that, you might want to figure out how you’re going to pay for your roads and schools by yourself. Talk about sticker shock.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:25 pm
Where is this “15 points behind” stuff coming from????
Comment by Wally Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:26 pm
“Even though this should answer the question “can a social conservative win statewide in Illinois” once and for all.”
No, I don’t think it does answer that question “once and for all.” After all, Brady did come awfully darn close to winning, won just about every county outside of Cook, and was ahead in nearly every pre-election poll. If he were truly “unelectable” (a la Alan Keyes or Jim Oberweis) he would have been behind in the polls from the beginning and he would have lost by a big enough margin that he would have had to concede last night.
Moreover, everyone assumes that had Dillard been the R nominee, he would have won or been far more electable, but he had some of the same social issue stands (pro-life, against gay marriage) as Brady. He certainly is not as “moderate” in that sense as, say, JBT or Kirk. Yet the consensus still seems to be that he could have won handily.
Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:27 pm
looking at opportunities in other states or whether Cook county secession is possible
Comment by let them have the state Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:29 pm
I’m starting the Lincoln Party and asking Carol Marin to run for governor.
Comment by enABEler Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:31 pm
Rasmussen August poll
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:31 pm
Maybe Quinn will team with SLC and pawn off Illinois - the largest pawn deal in history.
Comment by DRB Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:34 pm
Why does every election make me feel worse than the one before it? For the record, I started voting in 2004….
Comment by Heartless Libertarian Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:36 pm
Toss-up between drink and panic.
Maybe panic, then drink?
Comment by Cynic Al Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:37 pm
Now I think we’re really screwed. I wish I wasn’t a lawyer and could take my business somewhere else.
The pandering to the Unions and minorities is going to make this state nearly inhabitable for any white collar worker who isn’t a personal injury lawyer.
Comment by DuPage Moderate Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:38 pm
“it will be redrawn so Schilling can’t win re-election and put it back into the Dems pocket. I’d like to move to the 18th district.”
Well, Susie, depending on where you live, when the remap is done the 18th District might end up moving to you!
Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:39 pm
SlC for mayor. We need one person who is not afraid of Rahm. If Rahm threatens him, SLC will take some pills and put a knife to Rahm’s throat
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:40 pm
@Secret Square 12:27
=No, I don’t think it does answer that question “once and for all.”=
I agree with you 100%.
Please keep nominating people who have social beliefs just like Brady.
Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:42 pm
@Secret Square. I’d suggest while it’s not impossible for a social conservative to win in Illinois, it’s difficult. We haven’t had one as governor since Richard Ogilvie in the early 1970s. Given a stronger opponent, Brady would have been completely sunk. But an Illinois social conservative even with a weak opponent needs to offer something more. Something like some specifics on what to do about the Illinois budget mess. And Brady conspicuously failed to do that. Quinn way outdid him on specificity.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:43 pm
“Now what” is to spend my day reading CapitolFax and all its links and try to imagine how weird it would be to have an election in Illinois where I didn’t have a CapitolFax.
Comment by Mike K Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:44 pm
The real winners are the House Democratic staffers who busted tail for the past 4 months. The unsung heroes.
Comment by truedat Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:45 pm
Lot of whining and sour grapes here about that bad ol’ Chicago and Cook County.
Did Brady get all his voters out? Where were those hyper-motivated GOP voters we heard about? Did I miss the 80% turnout downstate?
Brady had everything going for him — off year, bad economy, total Dem control, Blago, Quinn’s mismanagement, budget deficit — and he lost. He was a weak candidate who got beat by a damaged, weak candidate.
Maybe if he hadn’t been hosting transition planning meetings, he could have bumped his turnout up five percentage points.
–I wish I wasn’t a lawyer and could take my business somewhere else.–
They don’t have lawyers “somewhere else?” I’m sure they do. Write and tell us after you’ve been there a while how great it is “somewhere else.”
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:49 pm
“while it’s not impossible for a social conservative to win in Illinois, it’s difficult”
I agree there.
“an Illinois social conservative even with a weak opponent needs to offer something more.”
I agree with that too. I’m just saying that social conservatism should not be treated as some kind of automatic “can’t win” disqualifier for GOP statewide candidates based on the results of this one election.
Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:49 pm
Thanks for another great reporting job, Rich
Comment by thanks Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:51 pm
Now what? Move to a state governed by conservatives because this state is going to go much further into debt and will not be able to function for much longer because the Dems don’t have a clue what they’re doing or the guts to do anything.
Comment by Segatari Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:52 pm
Ghost, there were apparently many problems with the Rasmussen polls… and not just the ones Rich has pointed out.
From Nate Silver: “Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points. Every pollster is entitled to a bad cycle now and again — and Rasmussen has had some good cycles in the past. But their polling took a major downturn this year.”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/live-blogging-election-night/#rasmussen-reports-polls-were-biased
Comment by Cynic Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:53 pm
Lisa Madigan runs for Mayor. Quinn lets Mike Madigan pick AG to ensure no investigations of Dems associated with Blago. Madigan gives Quinn tax hike. Citizens of IL are screwed for four more years because people in Chicago would vote for a dog if he had a D next to his name.
Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:54 pm
Wordslinger:
You seem to think this is just about Brady? Now what? We have a push-over as a man who won on the backs of unions and minorities, we have a speaker of the house who bats said governor around like a puppet and has shown no ability to care about the greater good of the people of the state of illinois and a republican party that it completely inept.
Oh, and I didn’t even mentioned the pension tsunami that won’t be dealt with. Or if it is, it will be pushed off onto the backs of those actually earning money in this state.
This isn’t about Brady - this is about the well-bring of the people of the state of illinois and our business community. And I can say - it’s not a pretty sight.
But you keep harping about Brady - it’s a whole lot bigger than that.
Comment by DuPage Moderate Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:54 pm
Yesterday, Illinois and California both decided to jump off the fiscal cliff.
I hope I’m wrong about Illinois, but Quinn folded like a cheap suit when the unions looked at him funny, and the rest have been around for a long time and have mostly just made the State’s fiscal problems worse. The GOPs have been no help but unless they have a stake, that won’t change; and after yesterday, assuming Quinn wins, the GOP still doesn’t have a stake.
Comment by Marty Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:57 pm
Chaos ensues. The state now takes 9 months to repay vendors. Our FY2012 deficit swells to $20 billion. The remap process turns into an Aaron Burr-Alexander Hamilton duel (sans pistols).
We took four Congressional seats (Joe Walsh pending), retained another seat and took back the old Peter Fitzgerald seat. As my mom used to remind me, “Count your blessings!” So I shall…
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:57 pm
I have another what’s next, or maybe, what I hope is next - retiring the word ‘tsunami’ unless it refers to an actual disaster. Equating Illinois pension problems to, say, an event that killed more than 200,000 actual people is akin to drawing a Hitler mustache on Brady.
Comment by Thoughts... Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:01 pm
With the defeat of Bob Flider the Republican dominance of east-central Illinois has increased again. While Republicans certainly like this, it should really concern everyone else especially leaders of local governmental bodies. School districts, cities, counties and the like can turn to their local Republican legislators and expect exactly nothing.
Governor Quinn could help the situation by saying that his 1980 cutback amendment was a huge mistake and needs to be repealed or amended again. Three member districts would help all parts of the state have an effective voice in Springfield.
Comment by someonehastosayit Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Q: Now what?
A: The Chicago press will suddenly shift their attention to Rahm Emanuel’s mayoral bid.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Cynic I dont disagree, it was just a question that had een posied by Rich earlier when people were supporting the idea of a Quinn win and Quinn was bleading heavily. I seem to recall a comment or two from you about Quinn being toast….
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:02 pm
Dupage Moderate:
Pandering to minorities? Huh? You mean, like, actually going to minority neighborhoods and campaigning? And how will this alleged pandering to minorities impact white collar workers specifically.
Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:03 pm
–We have a push-over as a man who won on the backs of unions and minorities,–
And I thought he won because he got more votes. These unions and minorities you speak of, are they citizens/voters?
DM, there’s nothing to keep Brady from sharing that secret plan he had to solve all the problems in one year. Maybe he can get cracking on that forensic audit. He can start with the Budget Books, Comptroller’s Reports, Auditor General reports…..
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:04 pm
Wow, there sure is a lot of whining today from the trailer park caucus about Chicago and minorities and unions. Typical tea bag stuff. I’m with Word. Pack up and take a hike because we ain’t going anywhere.
Let’s all shed a tear for the poor, disrespected rich kids in DuPage County. They are so much smarter than us but our votes count just as much as theirs and there are more of us. What they need out there is some gov’t subsidized affordable housing.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:04 pm
What’s next - go after high rent …
The Rent is too _____ High!
If I had any say in anything about anything, (I have limited say in my own house for crying out loud), take out MY state rep. Tom Cross as leader. Next, again, start over with all the leadership. The current HGOP leaders either are inept at reading polling data, or knowing trends, or just are dumb at looking at districts and knowing what it takes to win.
Why the focus on the HGOP? Nothing is going to change in IL with Michael J Madigan running the House. Talk about a solid foundation to run anyhting and everything. There is no base by which the ILGOP can build anyhting. The HGOP eat their own, far more than the HDEM, but the difference is that MJM decides who gets eaten, and how, and how severe.
No one is afraid of Cross and he hasn’t shown anything to the contrary. If you gave $$$ to Cross, you should have used it for heat in your fireplace, give money to MJM, you get a return and you get a leader who takes that to the policy level to move an agenda.
I never hear …Cross is the guy we need right now, any more . I haven’t heard that in a long time. The HRO is not going to FOLD (yes, a pun) any time soon … so what’s next?
Ten plus years of the “Lee A. Daniels, Minority Leader Show” starring Tom Cross. The show will be cheap to produce, the “cast” of the caucus will continue to shrink.
Jeez, this was a “tsunami” according to Kirk … and MJM is snug as a bug in a rug … and he gets another map he will like. And Tom Cross will still be the Minority Leader.
Maybe the rent is too dang high … for the HGOP. They can’t pay the freight to get a majority.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:05 pm
@ - Thoughts 1:01 pm -
Re: retiring the word ‘tsunami’ unless it refers to an actual disaster.
——————
Um, so then should we also retire “earthquake” (as in “their was a political earthquake”)?
Or what about “bomb” (as in “the Tribune report on SLC was a “bombshell”)?
Or how about “time-bomb” (as in the pension mess is a ticking time-bomb)?
Also, are you offended during football games when an announcer describes a long pass as a “bomb”?
I dont get why tsunami or tidal wave is so offensive… I do get their was a big tsunami in the last decade (and about 10 gazillion bombs, major earthquakes, etc).
Comment by Mike Ins Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:08 pm
I just came in from work and I’m trying to catch up on your discussions. If you will all kindly permit me an annoying question - is the consensus still that Quinn will win no matter what?
Comment by Anonymous Worrier Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:08 pm
Tenth Dist Democrats made a mistake by not electing Hamos in the primary. Why would you elect a guy with no legislative experience vs a woman with a good reputation and record of service in the legislature? I hope Preckwinkle will be a refreshing change to the usual Cook County gov’t.
Comment by Dem voter Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:10 pm
… and “word” you know I agree with you 100000% I said it about Dillard, I say it about Brady … field operations killed both of their campaigns … Jerry and Co. blew this campaign so bad, and to think they lost it the way they WON the primary … on the ground!
1 vote a precinct or less is a STAFF loss at the statewide level. You built nothing Jerry and Co. in the general election, and it bit you.
Word, I am with you big time.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:11 pm
No, you’re right, Quinn’s signing of bills days before receiving endorsements was nothing but a coincidence. He won these union votes because he actually campaigned in the communities.
Cook County is screwed;
The City of Chicago is screwed; and
The State of Illinois screwed.
And we’re celebrating the incubent’s victories.
Yep, makes sense to me.
You’re all right, we’re going to be a lot better off. I concede.
Comment by DuPage Moderate Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:11 pm
===The real winners are the House Democratic staffers who busted tail for the past 4 months. The unsung heroes.===
Did you mean paid staff who also set up filed operations …
I am going to just be sick the more I think how this was lost.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:12 pm
Heratless Libertarian @ 12:36 pm–
I started in 1972 and it doesn’t ever change.
Comment by Marty Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:14 pm
For over a decade Illinois has been going in cicles. Each governor played fiscal fiction and prayed for a miracle. As each economic signal pointed down each governor took steps to assist Illinoisans spending money we did not have and will not have earned for several years to come. With each government assist our fiscal situation worsened. After the 2000 recession Illinois did not bounce back to make up the costs of government programs enacted earlier.
By 2005 we ran out of time. So we see gridlock within the very party that ruled the state. Fiction met Non fiction. So onward into denial and debt we went.
What looked bleak now looks worse. Govern? If the incumbents knew how to they would have. Raise taxes? Pouring more money into this broken government is not a fix. Cut? With these incumbents?
Dream on.
As in 2006 Chicago decided to fight over crumbs instead of baking a new economic pie. Illinois had crested back in 2006 when voters decided that malaise was preferable to hard reality.
So pray. Pray that our monied citizens don’t move when they get their new tax bills. Pray that Illinois discovers untapped fields of gold and oil.Pray that the President dumps billions into Illinois enough to get the economy through this self imposed recession. Pray that our empty factories and empty store fronts somehow.
Prayer is all we have left now that the incumbents who cannot govern were reelected yesterday. You see that going in circles they have been doing for a decade has a name.
We are in a death spiral.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:15 pm
MJM will notice that the House Dems who voted for a tax increase did better, on balance, than those who voted against. That, plus the fact that the Dems control the legislature and the Governorship in a year before a map means that the stars are finally aligned for a tax increase
Comment by jake Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:27 pm
Q: Now what?
A: After trying and failing 3 times to capture the 10th District seat while living in the 9th, Dan Seals finally moves into the 10th District and then begins his campaign to unseat Roskam in the 6th District.
Comment by Bluejay Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:27 pm
Illinois remains on the edge of a fiscal abyss. The collective leadership of Quinn and Madigan will continue to drive business from the state, condemning those remaining to a continuing spiral of increasing fees and taxation.
The ‘corruption overhead’ has become too much to bear, but the partisan hacks continue to bleed the corpse dry.
Comment by Plutocrat03 Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:28 pm
I agree with “Come on, now - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:23 am”. We won’t likely know what Brady would have done since it is not likely he will climb over those 8K votes - but we do know what PQ will do. MOTS.
If I were only concerned about my personal situation (state employee, a few years away from retirment) I would thank those who voted democratic for state offices. Thanks to you the pension issue could be “resolved” by more borrowing and a tax increase. More trouble for you’all, but less for me. Since, for now, anyway, I won’t be paying any income tax on my state of Illinois pension, you’all will bear that burden alone. I get the best of both worlds due to the democrats in control of the state of Illinois.
To whom should I send the thank you note?
Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:29 pm
VanillaMan: the circles go back further than the last decade…they go back to 1980.
Comment by someonehastosayit Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:30 pm
DuPage Moderate @12:38: “The pandering to the Unions and minorities is going to make this state nearly inhabitable for any white collar worker who isn’t a personal injury lawyer.”
You sure you don’t really mean “…any white worker…”?
And please, go ahead; go Galt and take your business elsewhere.
Comment by Northsider Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:34 pm
Now what?
For Dems generally, hope for some votes for Brady. If Quinn has to deal with the budget problem, Madigan will absolutely lose his majority in two years. It wil be “Dems raise taxes.” Quinn’s win is a major blow to Dems in the future. I would trade the re-map for the tax vote. I can win in a bad district, but I can’t win where I’m blamed for raising taxes yet again.
For Toni: Time for her to shine. She was elected to stand up to the old ways. Do it, or enjoy the one term.
Berrios: Be careful what you say. Chances are, somebody is listening and likely carrying a badge.
For the people in Chicago: Time to start focusing on the next race. Remember, the Mayor was weak by design. Daley’s power came from his personality and not in something in the design of the office. Time to support aldermanic candidates that will be clean and honest, for a change. Time to dump the hacks.
Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:35 pm
With the Kinzinger winning how bad will Il-11 be redrawn in 2011 ?
Comment by DoubleDown Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:38 pm
I predicted a squeaker Quinn win and so far I’m on target.
Is there a defined contingent that voted for Kirk but not Brady. Suburban women? Will we ever know. I didn’t vote a straight ticket but I have the impression that a lot of voters do. So who voted for Kirk but not Brady. Were all those concerns about Brady’s social conservatism the game changer in the end.
Anyway, I wouldn’t be too sure Madigan would give
Quinn a tax increase unless Lisa decides to run for Mayor. If she ran and won she’d need a lot of money to get rid of that city deficit. State coffers would be a good place to get it since a lot of folks would think of that as somebody else paying some of the city’s bills. If Pat Quinn is planning to be in there for the next eight years at least there might be other priorities for the house speaker.
Comment by cassandra Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:42 pm
Plummer gets grounded from his playstation for a week when his father finds out what he wasted all of that money on.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:47 pm
Why would anyone worry about business moving out of Illinois? We’ll just replace the jobs with government spending. How to pay for it? Raise taxes of course. It’s too simple to fail.
Comment by We Todd Did Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Now what is the dems will fully own the budget unless they want repub input on june 1. I doubt there will be much input prior to that unless whining counts.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:54 pm
I’m sorry, but the Illinois GOP only have themselves to blame. And really if DuPage GOPers are crying, they really should be ashamed of themselves. They’re the ones that allowed Andy McKenna and Jim Ryan to run, which is why Dillard lost the primary. The result was Bill Brady and his social conservatism that everyone knew wouldn’t play well around Chicago. We saw a lot of Quinn/Kirk votes around Chicago because Brady doesn’t speak Chicagoland. Dillard would have won by 10 points if he had been the nominee. The GOP lost this election in February, not yesterday.
As for the borderline racism… let me remind you that the 14th amendment ensures that minorities are people and voters.
Comment by The 'Dale to HPark Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:55 pm
=== business moving out of Illinois ==== where are these mythological buisness’s? How many have actually moved v gone under from the economy (and not getting paid by the State)
Ford just announced huge profits and expansions in chigao, Navistar came here… IL provides higher private sector pay and lower total taxes then our neighboring States….
When did thebuisness model of supply and demand get replaced? The vast majority of buisness in Il is located somewhere based on a demand for the product or service.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:59 pm
Bean was overconfident, foolishly taking her re-election for granted. Now residents in IL-8 have to live with the consequences.
Comment by anon Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:01 pm
===…They’re the ones that allowed Andy McKenna and Jim Ryan to run, which is why Dillard lost the primary. …===
Look, If Dillard’ Paid Staff was so great he would have had a ground game like Brady did and found 1 more vote a precinct so Dillard would have won …
I am tired of the Dillard apologists …Dillard’s campaign was horrible, he couldn’t find 1 more vote because field operations is “overrated” … until you lose …
Hear that Brady Staff?
Cripes, are we all going to point fingers at everyone except what really nedds a finger point … Field Operations …
Dillard apologists, get over it …. Brady, I feel bad you had to lose, the way you won the primary …
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:01 pm
==Coming up we will shortly see an announcement that Rich Miller is joining the Tribune editorial board, and the comptroller and treasurer have solved the budget crisis for the State. ==
. . . and the announcement will go unnoticed in the celebration of the Cubs’ World Series victory.
Comment by Pat Robertson Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:03 pm
Ghosts, they’re all moving to Tennessee and Indiana — you know, those “pro-business” states whose economies aren’t even half the size of Illinois. Because they’re so pro-business, I guess…
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:08 pm
===They’re not meeting in December and they’d need a three-fifths majority in both chambers to do it.====
They are scheduled for the final day of veto to be Dec.1st. They also could pass it with just a majority and have a July 1 effective date but I imagine they would just wait until May 31st to do that.
Comment by Been There Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:09 pm
What next? Well, if this is any indication:
===We are in a death spiral.===
We’ll have two more years of VanillaMan crying like a baby and killing us with his melodramatic gibberish on a daily basis here. VM, isn’t prayer the last refuge of a scoundrel? Why don’t you roll up your sleeves and be part of the solution? Maybe put more focus on your state work than on your 300 word diatribes. That’s one place to start, give a full day’s work for a full day’s taxpayer funded paycheck.
As Nelson Muntz would say: Ha ha.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:10 pm
How about a unicameral legislature? Get rid of ALL of the House members in Illinois GA. Just have a Senate.
- save lots of money on salaries
- save money on office space
- it is just a rubber stamp of one man’s will anyway.
Quinn started the idea of a cutback in the legislature - let’s really put one in place.
Just sayin’ - what would we be missing? Debate? Ideas? Process for the sake of process?
Comment by washedmyhands Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:13 pm
It seems like people are under stating the big day that Speaker Madigan had. He loses only a net 6 seats ,just last week Tom Cross (R-Overrated) stated that his candidates had enough pluses to be victorious in many of the districts that were in play. Alexi G. (D-Not Madigan’s Guy) took his lumps and at the local level Joe Berrios (D-Who Do I Make the Check Out To) was victorious as Cook County Assessor. Also, Brendan Houlihan (D-Sorry I Missed Your Call I Was At The Board of Trade) lost to a unknown named Dan Patlak (R-Who Ordered the 1/2 Sausage and 1/2 Mushroom). Remember how Madigan/Berrios were assisting Maureen Murphy (R-R.I.P.) against B. Houlihan a few years back for this Board of Review seat. Sorry Carol Marin, Andy Shaw, Chicago Tribune but the Speaker had a pretty good day. Looking forward to the articles giving him kudos.
Comment by Johnknee Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:13 pm
My prediction:
The redistricting won’t be as bad as many people here say it will be for the R. Go look at the map from last night and tell me how you are going to draw 18 Congressional districts that benefit the Dems in the majority of them.
Furthermore, as the problems in this state get worse and worse (a near certainty), there will be fewer and fewer opportunities for the Dems. Example: Michigan. The absolute poster-child for Democrat rule throughout the state. Did anyone happen to see that they essentially gutted the D’s last night and now the R’s have control of the Governorship, both chambers, and a majority of Congressional seats? Too bad Detroit had to be practically abandoned before people woke up but fast-forward 10 years and I guarantee Chicago is going to look an awful lot like the Motor City does now, and not just in the areas we can all imagine.
I said last night that this might be a Pyrrhic victory for the Dems (same could be said had Brady won for the Republicans). The mess we have is beyond comprehension. People can still vote with their feet and their pocket books. I see a mass exodus from the state as employers pack up and leave and take even more jobs with them.
It was said earlier that this state was in a death spiral. It’s worse.
Comment by Logical Thinker Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:20 pm
Alexi for Mayor !
Comment by Justica O ! Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:25 pm
–Go look at the map from last night and tell me how you are going to draw 18 Congressional districts that benefit the Dems in the majority of them.–
Now try 17.
LT, your Chicago/Detroit scenario is just silly. Chicago metro has the most diverse economy in the U.S., while Detroit was and is a one-trick pony. And if you think Detroit’s decline was the result of who was in Lansing….
By the way, Chicago metro has the fourth largest GDP in the world behind Tokyo, New York and Los Angeles.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:30 pm
–It was said earlier that this state was in a death spiral. It’s worse.–
VMan, you’ve got competition! Better sharpen those purple pencils.
What exactly is worse than a death spiral, anyway? A Trip-Dog-Death Spiral?
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:33 pm
What’s next? Taxes are raised wthout fixing the structural imbalances in the states budget. The massive unfunded liabilities of our public employee pensions continue to be ignored. Rating agencies continue to lower the state’s credit rating, making it increasingly expensive to continue the borrowing that has become a permenant feature of the budget. The state’s business climate continues to decline. Jobs and people continue to leave the state. I agree with VM’s assessment - “death spiral.”
Comment by GoldCoastConservative Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:34 pm
word -
Don’t skip the Double-Dog just to go to the Triple-Dog Death Spiral… it’s just bad form …
Ask Ralphie in A Christmas Story … it’s bad form to skip the Double-Dog …
Thanks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:36 pm
People keep saying how the map redraw is going to be bloody hell on the GOP. But the 2001 map was drawn by the D’s as well. How is it that it’ll get THAT much worse? I can see how they make sure the GOP loses 1 congressional seat. But I don’t see how you can totally eviscerate DuPage County. If it were possible, they would have done it in 2001, no?
===
If Quinn has to deal with the budget problem, Madigan will absolutely lose his majority in two years. It wil be “Dems raise taxes.” Quinn’s win is a major blow to Dems in the future.
===
I’m not so sure about that. Quinn wants the tax increase. What if Madigan permits the vote, and then lets Lisa slam Quinn for it in 2014 in a primary challenge? Make Quinn the scapegoat if he wants the increase so badly… MJM is savvy enough that if the vote takes place in early 2011, he can easily pivot by 2014 to make Quinn and a few select ultra liberals the bad guys while still protecting most of his people in the assembly…
Comment by John Galt Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:38 pm
In terms of Congressional seats, I am predicting an awful remap in 2011. We will lose a seat. That will put each Congressional district at 750,000 people - or perhaps even more. With Schilling, Walsh, Hultgren and Kinzinger winning Dem seats and with Dold holding on to Kirk’s seat, I will hold true to my long-standing prediction that we will have an incumbent vs. incumbent primary. My guess at this point is Schilling vs. Schock. Rock Island is close enough to Peoria that a 17th-18th merger actually makes sense but would stoke some serious GOP anger. Kinzinger could also be bumped into a more suburban setting and the 14th - which was a Denny Haster creation - could also be reshifted.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:43 pm
The Speaker had a lousy day — he didn’t want Quinn to be reelected. He wanted the path cleared for Lisa and to have someone to point fingers at with the budget mess.
Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:53 pm
==To whom should I send the thank you note?==
Me,for starters. C’mon Vannie get off the ledge. It is not that bad. we’ll be fine after the dems raise taxes to provide services to the 6th richest state in the country. You are probably suprised to know that I aam no big Quinn or Madagain fan but they’ll eventuallt blunder into doing the right thing. Tax and spend, that’s what we need and eventually that’s what we’ll get. We just need an amendment so we can make the rich pay for it all. If we had the tax stsructure of Indiana we would be in the black. As for Tennesee, the largest employer in that business friendly state is probably Dollywood or Graceland.
YAHOOOO, mountain dew!
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:55 pm
===How is it that it’ll get THAT much worse?===
It can always get worse. But, more to the point, it can be drawn so as two or more GOP members are in the same district. They’d better hope the housing market improves.
Just sayin…
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:59 pm
Word/2:33 pm
Plain old plummeting to earth is worse than a spiral. That might explain the whistling noise too.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:07 pm
washedmyhands….with single member districts, citizens who identify themselves with the party opposite of their state legislator may as well not have a representative. But moreover, the local units of government are out of a voice. I would be fine with reducing legislator pay to make the increase revenue neutral but single member districts simply don’t work.
Comment by someonehastosayit Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:16 pm
I wonder if Brady will make the roll call tomorrow?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:20 pm
Roland Burris announces for Mayor.
The state yawns.
Comment by Jake from Elwood Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:31 pm
Death spiral? People selling apples and pencils on the corner? Have Oak Park and Effingham suddenly collapsed into complete slums? If the GA will stop the can kicking and actually address problems with real solutions versus party talking points maybe something gets done. There are many people employed and living their lives. Others are having a hard time. Platitudes ain’t solving the problem. Cut some expenses and increase some taxes. Glass half full/empty discussions mean nothing. D and R need to come together with a plan, stick to it, and move on. I really don’t care if MJM is supposedly positioning for a complete LM takeover in 4 years. What gets done by April 30, 2011 to resolve the problems?
Comment by zatoichi Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:38 pm
For the political parties and for the serious and knowledgeable regular readers on this blog–but mostly for the good of Illinois, the following is what I sincerely HOPE is “next”:
Along with all of today’s varying degrees of happiness and sadness, of relief, recriminations, second thoughts, what-ifs, disappointments, and I-told-you-sos, how about we stop to take a serious look at the primary process for next time. Let’s work harder at the local party level toward identifying, developing, and getting the most qualified, honest, baggage-free, law abiding, appealing, and matched-to-the district/state candidates possible elected and then on the general election ballot next time regardless of incumbency. Despite (or because of) the obscene amounts of money spent, and regardless of who “pulled it off” Tuesday, lots of voters were disgusted and not happy with many of the choices available to them on Nov. 2. Much of that agita came from the fiascos of the primary season, and was further exacerbated by the poor (too early) timing of the primaries. We must do better.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:39 pm
The congressional remap takes a different tack from the legislative one. Members of the legislature must live in their districts, so it’s easy to force pairs into primaries. There’s no such requirement on the congressional delegation, and there are already some who don’t reside in their districts. Remaps there have to carve up bases not just move the lines around the residence.
Comment by muon Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:44 pm
LT dont tell CA that MI is the poster child for Dems…..
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:51 pm
What to expect? Same people. Same results.
Residency issues are ignored and Rahm becomes Chicago Mayor.
FWIW: I’ve heard that some guy did a 40 year comparison and concluded that Illinois was the most corrupt state, had the most corrupt county (Cook) and the most corrupt city (Chicago). I have no reason to believe his study was faulty.
FWIW: I’ve been to Montana and I liked it. I have friends (a physician & an attorney) that have moved there from Illinois and they haven’t moved back. If we didn’t have significant property, family, and friends here; we’d go there.
Comment by Logic not emotion Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:51 pm
“Now what?” Illinois starts concentrating on the REAL problems facing the state…the Bears quarterback and what about those Cubs? (I didn’t mention the White Sox because they aren’t a problem.)
Comment by What planet is he from again? Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:54 pm
Policy-wise, I think what Judy and Dan do with the financial offices will be very interesting.
Comment by kj Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 4:01 pm
Well, its hard for me to pick out anyone who got a mandate yesterday to do things dramatically different, so that makes me anticipate more of the same for a while, at least.
For sure more reductions in real spending on state programs is coming, whether we have no income tax increase, a 1%, or a 2% increase. The pension problem grows larger each day, as does the overall deficit. There will be no will among either party to make cuts large enough to solve the budget problems thru cuts alone. Hey, this all sounds familiar. Maybe that’s what MOTS means.
Comment by steve schnorf Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 4:05 pm
The ‘Dale to HPark - Actually, about 1/2 of the population in Illinois lives in Cook and the 6 collar counties. The other 1/2 lives “down state.”
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 4:10 pm
How does the map get worse? Easy - Rich pointed out one example - look for multiple Republicans to be mapped together, thereby destroying whatever bench they have left.
Second, you draw a map not for 2012 or 2014, but for 2020. Demographic changes matter. There are district today, held by Republicans in 2003 that are significantly more Dem than they need to be for a D to hold it. What to do with those extra Dems? Send them to an R district. The ability model those demographic changes is exponentially more advanced than it was in 2001, when it was exponentially more advanced than in 1991.
For the GOP, it will be a bad map - take it to the bank.
Comment by Thoughts... Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 4:19 pm
Doesn’t matter how they redistrict the 17th. Schilling will run again regardless. He doesn’t even live in the 17th now. Why would that stop him if the district is abolished? He’ll just run for another.
Comment by kitty herself Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 4:33 pm
I wait for the Republicans in the Illinois GA to follow up on Christine Ragdano’s comments last night when she stated that the Republican wave was in answer to the dissatisfaction of the voters to the way the Dems have been running things. She was speaking mostly on the national level but I am interested in seeing what she brings to the table at the State level to change the way State Government has responded to the fiscal crisis. At the time I think she was expecting a Brady win.
Comment by Irish Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 4:42 pm
I agree with Team Sleep on a possible 2011 redistricting scenario involving a combined 17th/18th district and thus a Schilling vs. Schock GOP primary. And if that happens I would not be surprised if a map is proposed where the immediate Peoria tri-county area is split between two congressional disticts–something along the line of Peoria County in a combined 17th/18th and Tazewell and Woodford in a remapped, say, 11th or 15th.
And as far as the areas of the 17th district in southwestern Illinois (particularly Macoupin County) and in parts of Springfield and Decatur, I would also not be surprised if those exact areas could end up in a remapped 12th District (the Costello seat).
Or as in the 2002 election, could there be a remapped district in southern Illinois that could force Shimkus and Costello to face off in the general in 2012?
Comment by Leatherneck Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 5:27 pm
How can the map get worse? “Thoughts” hit on it, but I’ll expand. 2010 Census. This is not simply redrawing the lines. It’s redrawing the lines to reflect the population changes.
Downstate districts, of which the GOP are picking up more in the last few cycles, get bigger because people are leaving downstate. Phelps’ district will be 20 freaking counties next time. Fewer districts downstate in the next map. GOP reps/senators find themselves mapped together. More districts in the burbs, which are trending Dem.
If Quinn holds on, GOP obstructionism carries on. Bill “I Never Met a Taxpayer-Paid Job I Didn’t Like” Mitchell admitted as much in his endorsement from the Decatur daily. He is open to a tax hike if the GOP is in control; says ‘no way’ if Dems stay in control. Talk about a model for duplicity and hypocrisy. In true HGOP style.
No votes for a tax hike, unless some of them actually step up and step away from the caucus dictatorship of Cross, despite his feigned protestations about how his caucus is run from the bottom up. Bull.
With a six-seat pickup, Cross will attempt to convince his caucus that he was in the right and to stay the course. More goofy motions. No votes for tax hike. More childish floor tantrums about that mean ol’ Mike Madigan. More failure. Will they be duped by their ‘leader’ yet again, or will they, as was mentioned, try to play nice with MJM in an act of self-preservation? Time will tell.
Comment by What Now, You Say? Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 5:56 pm
Hynes vs. Dillard would’ve been an outcome worth waiting for- too bad we’re stuck with Quinn for the next four years..
Comment by tunes Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 6:19 pm
As a state worker, if Quinn preserves my job in the next four years, I will do the following:
pay my rent on time, pay my utilities and credit cards, continue dining out and overtipping, I will shop for various items and keep the economy going, etc.
I will also continue making fraud referrals at work to the OIG, so that I do my level best to protect what you paid in taxes from being abused.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 7:05 pm
so were making policy decisions based on the re-map? Let’s kiss King Madigan’s fanny so he’ll cut us a good district? We have stooped to a new low.
Comment by Still Gettin Twisted Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 8:13 pm
Now that Republicans have the Comptroller and Treasurer and ran to combine the offices, will the Democrats help push the merger into law? Who loses their new job? Why not return the comptroller to it’s original function as auditor general of state finances? Don’t we need an extra level of fiscal oversight in this state?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:55 am