Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Tenaska’s Taylorville Energy Center MYTHBUSTERS
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Posted in:
* You’ve undoubtedly read by now that a group of African-American leaders has chosen Congressman Danny Davis to be their standard-bearer in the mayor’s race.
But a poll commissioned by Davis himself, which for some reason he decided to circulate not long ago, actually shows he will have a very rough time against Rahm Emanuel if Davis manages to make it into the runoff. From Congressman Davis’ pollster…
Emanuel does well against Davis and Braun one-on-one, even when just looking at African-American voters and Hispanic voters. Emanuel received 45 percent of the African-American vote and 58 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to 36 percent and 20 percent respectively for Davis. The numbers are similar one-on-one with Braun, but Braun does better with Hispanic voters.
This seems to be due to Emanuel’s name recognition and generally positive image. So, even if a coalition of African-American voters is possible, that does not guarantee success. However, there are a fair number of undecided voters so that adds another variable into the mix.”
If Rahm Emanuel gets 45 percent of the black vote against Davis in Davis’ own poll, then you have to wonder what he and that committee is thinking.
* And this has been going around for days. I’m not sure yet whether the labor poll actually exists, but there are some aldermen who cannot handle the idea of Rahm Emanuel for mayor and some of them are now turning to a guy who got almost 80 percent of the Chicago vote last week…
Defeated U.S. Senate hopeful Alexi Giannoulias appears to be at least toying with the idea of running for mayor. But as per my post of Wednesday, I’m still not convinced it’s real or that he’s doing anything except listening to some flattery at a time when he could use some.
In an e-mail on his way back from a post-election vacation, Mr. Giannoulias confirmed chatter that “I have received a lot of calls from aldermen and donors that I was absolutely not expecting.” Reportedly included in that group are City Council graybeards Ed Burke (14th) and Dick Mell (33rd), who don’t much like the idea of taking orders from a Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
Mr. Giannoulias further confirmed that results of “a very strong (and flattering) poll” have been shown to him. Sources say the poll was conducted for a labor union and that it reportedly shows Mr. Giannoulias running six or seven points ahead of Mr. Emanuel.
“Does that mean that I’m running for mayor? No,” Mr. Giannoulias continued in his e-mail. “Is it stupid for me to say no, unequivocally, without even listening? Not sure yet.”
Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:28 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Tenaska’s Taylorville Energy Center MYTHBUSTERS
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Burke won’t be able to control Rahm like he will Alexi. Of course he wants to instill a weak mayor form of government de facto as well as de jure. Problem is that Alexi won 80% against a Republican - not against Obama’s former trusted Chief of Staff. I doubt the labor poll exists, either. But labor is likely standing on top of the world after the Quinn win, and figures they can put another labor stooge in the Mayor’s office as well. I wouldn’t count anyone out, but this trial balloon already ran out of air before it launched. Alexi, hang out in Mexico a few more weeks. You’re earned the rest.
Comment by phocion Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:33 pm
I would vote for Alexi over Rahm in a second. Of course, I no longer live in Chicago, so my “vote” doesn’t count for much.
And does Alexi running take away some of the Obama-fed support of Rahm?
Comment by dave Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:36 pm
11 days - the deadline for turning in 25,000 valid signatures.
Comment by The Captain Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:36 pm
What else does Alexi do for the next three years when the 2014 elections kick off. Makes sense to me.
Also, polls this early are somewhat meaningless for candidates that can raise money. People don’t know a lot about them so it is easy just to pick the guy with the name you recognize.
Comment by Aaron Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:37 pm
Rich, can we have an item on tone deaf ricketts asking the state for help fixing up wrigley?
http://chicagobreakingbusiness.com/2010/11/ricketts-seeks-state-aid-for-200m-to-upgrade-wrigley.html
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:41 pm
what exactly is alexi going to run for and on what merits? the success of brightstart, broadway bank, his diplomatic credentials from the junket he took with durbin to greece?
Comment by shore Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:44 pm
No way, Rahm has managed to have the field cleared for him so far and I don’t see him having an issue clearing Alexi out.
Would be fun however….
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:47 pm
“Thoughts?”
The African-American vote breaks late?
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:50 pm
Hillary Clinton was beating Obama among African-Americans in the polls too…at first.
And no, I’d vote for Rahm over Alexi in a heartbeat. If we’re going to have a corrupt government, let’s at least have a competent one.
Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:59 pm
Methinks the stop Rahm contingent is starting to look a little silly…and desperate. Never good to be perceived as desperate, Ed.
Comment by Thoughts... Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:02 pm
I’ll take the investment banker who made money, thank you very much. Oh, and the one who was Chief of Staff for the White House. You think maybe he can recruit some talented people to help him get things done?
Comment by State Sen. Clay Davis Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:05 pm
Can’t imagine 2 big Obama allies would run against each other, even if they wanted to. The White House couldn’t have that. At some point cooler heads would prevail. I don’t see Alexi being interested at this point anyway.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:07 pm
Would Alexi seriously consider jumping into the race against Rahm? Wouldn’t he rather jump into a vat of water filled with piranha? It would be less damaging.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:07 pm
- dave - Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 3:36 pm:
I would vote for Alexi over Rahm in a second. Of course, I no longer live in Chicago, so my “vote” doesn’t count for much.
Dave dont think that for a second. This is Chicago find any adress you want and go ahead and vote. Heck at least 2 of the canidates dont live in Chicago Daley spends the summer in Michigan and the rest of the time flying around the world. Dont ever let silly things like laws deter you the Chicago Machine never has never will. And if you have noticed since Obamas inaguration Peter Fitgerald hasn’t been very active.
Comment by fed up Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:08 pm
===Hillary Clinton was beating Obama among African-Americans in the polls too…at first. ===
That’s true. But for the most part, few who were polled really knew who Obama was. Davis has been around for decades.
I would agree, though, that Emanuel’s African-American support is likely overstated. However, my question remains: Why even release those numbers?
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:10 pm
Of course some alderman would be drooling over the prospect of Alexi being mayor. He would be fresh meat in way over his head.
Comment by ANON Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:11 pm
Rahm would eat Alexi Alive
Alexi Gianoulius must be Greek for Jim Oberwies.
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:11 pm
You release those numbers so Davis has a reason to back out. I am confident he won’t stay in the race. Every time he looks at running for something where there will be real competition, he walks away. I don’t see any reason why that will change this time around.
Comment by Montrose Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:13 pm
==Wouldnt he rather jump into a vat of water filled with pirahna==
Or share a pool with Jaws
Comment by ANON Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:13 pm
ANON, I think he may have already done that.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:16 pm
Like many dems, I voted for Alexi because he was a democrat. I don’t have a favorable impression of him and would be happy if he never runs for office again.
I view Alexi as a hyper-ambitious light-weight fueled with Daddy’s money and his basketball playing connections. I would be happy if he never runs for office again.
Comment by Objective Dem Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:16 pm
oh, Rahm. how smart of your side (the Axelrod side) to float Alexi to make sure no Irish/southside person runs. this is simply a move to keep anyone else who might actually do it, out of the race. have we seen this movie before? what were the names floated to keep folks out of the race to make room for Alexi? I’m cynical enough to think that Rahm is the one who convinced Claypool to run for Assessor, or many would have figured Claypool as the better choice for mayor.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:18 pm
Alexi is Rahm’s nightmare.
In the runoff system, I’d put my money on Alexi making the second round over Rahm.
Alexi already has a lot of hay in the barn. He’s been campaigning in Chicago and Illinois for years.
He has recent, fantabulous testimonials from Barack and Michelle Obama as to what a dreamy dude he is.
Rahm threw the Obamas under the bus in the national papers before he bailed. He got out before last week’s wipeout. The Obamas are not going to invest a minute of time or trouble in him.
After a testing, brutal, nasty race against Kirk, Alexi was gracious in defeat. He’s a likeable guy whose mom loves him. Mark Kirk loves him. Sam Sianis loves him. Carol Marin loves Forrest Claypool.
The Chicago mayor’s race calendar is short. Alexi has access to folks who could be up in running in a minute, if the financing is there.
There’s a Midwestern Byzantium going on now trying to figure who can be in the top two for a runoff. It’s a different equation than we’ve seen in a very long time.
If Alexi gets in, I bet he makes the runoff and Rahm does not.
What an opportunity. The Chicago mayor’s office isn’t in play every day.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:21 pm
Alexi running - that would be a campaign manager’s dream.
Alexi has already been through the media wash with his issues (Broadway, Bright Start, etc.). He’s been vetted. The media won’t be interested in dragging him through the ringer again and posting old news stories. If it didn’t come out in one of the more nasty Senate campaigns in IL’s recent history, it’s not going to come out in the next few months.
On the other side, the media will focus its attention on Rahm. He hasn’t been through a campaign in years, and he’s never been through a TOUGH campaign. There’s plenty of questions about his record to address. Alexi proved himself capable of firing shots at Kirk and in defining the candidate (a liar). He wins the race if it’s held in 06, 08 and probably 2012.
Alexi also has the GOTV operation ready. He’s got the staff ready to go. He’s got the fundraising base. And he’s got… the unions. Who hate Rahm. He’s ready to hit the ground running with experienced, Chicago operatives who know the city. No need to go through the hiring process and worry about the structure/operations of a campaign (which takes SO much time). It’s already there. You could focus on message, media, new GOTV strategies… you could be innovative while other candidates are building their organization.
Who does Rahm have? Some high-level folks who are more consultants than operatives, a Comms director who came from a junior position at the WH, and a mish-mash of real operatives who aren’t all that experienced.
Think about how much damage Alexi could do if he got started now. It’d be a fight. And one where you’d be licking your chops if you were his campaign manager.
Comment by Nick42 Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:24 pm
I agree with Montrose. Davis’ campaign looks much like his Cook County President campaign, non-starter.
So far, Rahm seems to be the only candidate to attain an early start to what looks like a broad coalition of support. All the other candidates are far too regionalized, ethnic and political.
Burke and Mell are throwing the kitchen sink at any and every possible candidate to derail Rahm. Unfortunetly for them they are sending too many mixed signals and confusing their own organizations. They are dividing their own people into different camps, thus making it easier for Rahm.
Comment by CLJ Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:25 pm
==Alexi Gianoulius must be Greek for Jim Oberwies.==
You forget that Alexi’s actually won a GE; I think Jim is still 0/5.
==my question remains: Why even release those numbers?==
Because you haven’t been engaged in a semi-competitive campaign in at least 10 years, and you just don’t have the chops to make this type of jump.
Comment by chuddery Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:26 pm
Maybe if Davis did something of substance for his district or the Black community when he was in Congress people would be more enthusiastic about him.
Just brainstorming.
Why release the numbers?
Davis, I suspect, feels he’s the best candidate to run for mayor. And if he can’t have it, he doesn’t want any Black to have it, especially a Black woman.
Speculation: Rahm knows how petty Davis is and how to push his buttons. If Danny Davis is saying and doing things that benefit Rahm, my guess is that Rahm is pulling the strings. Davis may be a willing stooge. Then again, he might just be easy to manipulate.
Comment by West Side observer Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:27 pm
Let’s not forget, Alexi still has some serious dough in his state committee fund. Over a mil in fact. Just sayin.
Comment by Obamarama Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:29 pm
Can’t imagine that Alexi goes against the White House again. Especially since it potentially sets him up as a two time loser. That would pretty much end his political career.
Comment by A.B. Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:34 pm
Word - I’ll take that bet, please! I’ll even give you two-to-one odds.
You win if Alexi gets in the runoff and Rahm doesn’t.
I win if Rahm gets in the runoff regardless of who else does.
Let’s meet after filing day, er…after the Rahm residency lawsuit is settled…and work out a hypothetical amount (you know, for fun, if betting were legal).
Three African-Americans split that community
Two Latinos split that community.
I’d bet on a runoff of Rahm AND Alexi in that scenario.
But all that said…I don’t think Alexi runs (and to those who think the WH/Obama connection would help, let’s not forget they were looking for ANY candidate but him for the Senate). And I think after some careful, quiet reflection, Danny Davis takes a step back…like he always does.
Comment by Thoughts... Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:36 pm
I’m with Amalia. Alexi and Danny Davis are pure blockers. They put their names in (or someone does it for them) and drop out and it sucks the energy out of the people who get on board with those two and ticks time off the clock. It’s the clear strategy for Rahm to clear the field rather than run against a serious candidate like a Tom Dart. It’s also clear he’s buying up all the talent (or lack thereof) to secure certain constituencies. Does he really need Blake Sercye, Matt Hynes and Sam Toia to get elected mayor? Please. $ is his advantage and he’s forcing it right now.
Comment by Pioneer P. Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:37 pm
I don’t see Alexi having the rocks to actually “manage” based upon his treasurer stint v. “represent” as a Senator. Given Rahm’s org. skills, hard to say he’s not the better choice.
Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:37 pm
All that being said, Alexi won’t run.
He’s young and has a future, he knows it, and he knows that alienating the WH doesn’t do anything to help his future national aspirations. He asked the President to go to bat for him, the President did, so you can’t turn around and screw the WH like that.
Comment by Nick42 Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:38 pm
Looks like we may have a bet going here. What say you, word?
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:44 pm
Alexi won’t run. But if he did, I wouldn’t underestimate the anybody-but-Rahm vote. He has not endeared himself to the Democratic base as chief of staff.
Comment by enn Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:47 pm
I actually think that if Alexi had more time, a couple of months maybe, that he would run. And it would be a close race with Rahm. Both have high negatives, but both could raise substantial money. I’m not sure who would win. But as things stand, I just don’t think Alexi would have the energy to hit the ground running immediately, which is what he would have to do.
Comment by centrist Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 4:48 pm
Word - I’ll take that bet, please! I’ll even give you two-to-one odds.
You win if Alexi gets in the runoff and Rahm doesn’t.
I win if Rahm gets in the runoff regardless of who else does.–
Contingent on both Alexi and Rahm entering the race, I’m in. I’ll take the two-to-one odds as well — I’ll drink two beers to your one anywhere in the city.
As a sidebet, I’ll buy you a cigar if you can identify a base constituency that is dying for Rahm as mayor.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 5:09 pm
wordslinger: I can “identify a base constituency that is dying for Rahm as mayor” — the wealthiest 2%. Rahm has always had their best interests at heart.
Comment by Lakefront Liberal Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 5:33 pm
My money is behind Thoughts…
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 5:38 pm
What are you smoking? Remember twowords…Broadwa y Bank. Most. People in the city are not stupid!
Doug. Domeyer
Comment by doug dobmeyer Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 5:50 pm
===Contingent on both Alexi and Rahm entering the race, I’m in.===
Of course, of course. Dependent on both being on the ballot, I’m good for anywhere in the city as well. Maybe Rich will broker it - nothing like Chicago in February.
Let me sleep on the side bet…
Comment by Thoughts... Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 6:10 pm
The fact that Mell and Burke are opposing Rahm makes me like Rahm a lot more.
Comment by Objective Dem Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 6:16 pm
The political graveyard is full of ‘Unbeatables’:
Chuck Percy
Blair Hull
Burt Natarus
Hillary Clinton
Kirk Dillard
Bill Brady
I wouldn’t paint Rahm’s name on the door just yet.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 6:21 pm
If ever there was a paper tiger Rahm is it and politicians can smell weakness. I would expect somebody prominant to pull the trigger. Alexi, Lisa, Devine…somebody. I seems like some pretty low hanging fruit.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 6:34 pm
“Remember twowords…Broadwa y Bank.”
That appears to be three words.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 6:39 pm
Alexi does have a campaign committee in place. He doesn’t have to concentrate on a statewide race. He lives in Chicago and has for quite a while now.
Why not an Alexi run? It kind of makes sense.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 6:53 pm
It would be tough to get the needed signatures by what, a week from this upcoming Monday? A few hundred thousand have already been sucked up by other campaigns, mostly from the easy to access areas. In order to safely get on, I’d say you have to double the 12,500 requirement. Not easy to do in such a short amount of time.
Comment by Matt Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 7:25 pm
carol mosely braun is on chicago tonight right now, I would live blog this but it’s too hilarious. She just touted her time as new zealand ambassador because clearly what we need in our next mayor is someone who knows kanagaroos koalas and kiwis. She said the city has a pretty face and ugly body. She touted her state government experience from 1979? She said she has a better resume than rahm.
An alexi/rahm fight would be great. I love the commenter that said alexi would be great because his mom loves him. Does rahm’s mom love him? Anyone who read my debate commentary knows that alexi is a mentally shallow human being who did not have the policy chops for a senate seat he had 2 years to prepare to debate on. He has a few days for this and rahm has written books on democrat policy.
Comment by shore Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 7:28 pm
I do not see Alexi running for Mayor, it would put him in a bad position with the White House. However, if he were to run for mayor, then I could see him being a formidable candidate. He would most likely lose to Rahm in a run-off election.
If Alexi stays out of the race, then I see him challenging Pat Quinn in 2014 for Governor.
As for Danny Davis, I think he might actually keep his hat in the ring. As noted before, he believes he is the appropriate representative for African-Americans.
Carol Mosley Braun might do better with African-Americans than Davis..or maybe not.
Miguel De Valle might do better than we thought. James Meeks might receive a strong base from African-American ministers or split it with Davis. This is going to be a fun election.
Comment by JakeCP Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 7:57 pm
Rahm didn’t write the book. Bruce Reed did. But Rahm put his name on it as a co-author because it was in both of their interests. Thats the way things work.
Comment by centrist Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 8:12 pm
“And no, I’d vote for Rahm over Alexi in a heartbeat. If we’re going to have a corrupt government, let’s at least have a competent one.”
I have to agree.
Comment by justsickofit Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 8:25 pm
I say go for it, Alexi. He may not make the sigs needed for a comfy spot in the lottery, but he shouldn’t have a problem collecting 12,500 in the time remaining.
Comment by R.C. Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 8:26 pm
This race is already getting stranger than fiction, and no one has even filed nomination papers yet.
Comment by 42nd Ward Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 8:28 pm
I’d hold off on the wagering until the field is set. Speaking of the field, anyone hear anything about who SEIU or the Chicago Federation of Labor are talking to? Seems to me that labor has a lot at stake in this race, and unless I’ve missed something, I don’t see labor getting behind any of the announced candidates so far.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 8:59 pm
To the person who said that Ed Burke and Dick Mell being against Rahm made them like Rahm more, I agree.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 9:05 pm
As an anti-Rahm, anti-Mark Kirk, apathetic Northwest suburbanite Republican who has no strong opinion of Mayor Daley one way or another… I fully support the Alexi for Mayor campaign….
Comment by Heartless Libertarian Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 9:39 pm
I’ve gotta vote with Amalia and think Alexi is a blocker. I wonder what he’s due if he’s playing the role. Maybe he’ll be Ambassador to Greece months for now. Or maybe he’ll go a different direction and Rahm’s brother with get him the lead in Aquaman III.
I don’t think he could win. Those ads drive up his unfavorables.
Rahm will paint the race as a flight to safety (which he will with many other potential candidates), and defeat Alexi soundly.
Comment by Quizzical Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 10:06 pm
Dick Mell is with Rahm 100 percent.
Comment by Pioneer P. Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 10:16 pm
=This race is already getting stranger than fiction….=
My thoughts exactly, 42nd. Go for it, Alexi, if you want it. You have nothing to lose.
Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 10:38 pm
I too am completely confused now by the rumors circling around Dick Mell (33rd). Based on the commentator or blog post, he’s either all in with Rahm, totally opposed, or somewhere in between.
Not that it much matters, in my opinion. Mell still seems impregnable in his ward, and I wouldn’t want to go against him in a City Council fight, but I don’t think he has some big army he can put into the field anymore. Very few aldermen do. That’s probably why Rahm’s not intimidated by them.
Comment by ZC Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 10:55 pm
Alexi vs. Rahm, Alexi looks attractive. It pits a sort-of-idealistic young Dem against a cautious yet pugilistic insider who still has this outdated zero-sum view of seeking the center ground.
But that’s not necessarily the choice. The choice could well end up being Alexi (D-Burkeandtheunions) vs Rahm (I-Kick Butt). I’d have to go for Rahm on that one. If these early reports of alliances are correct, Alexi would mean a status-quo glidepath to second rate status for the city, whereas Rahm would, well, be Rahm, which would hopefully mean something like “the slovenliness has to stop.” Aren’t there better things Alexi can be doing than carrying water for Ed Burke and a bunch of public employee unions who focus on protecting the old employees rather than promoting the good ones?
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Thursday, Nov 11, 10 @ 11:02 pm