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* Aside from the obvious personal issues, just about everything you need to know about the broad themes in the upcoming battle royale between freshmen Republican Congressmen Joe Walsh and Randy Hultgren are right here in this New York Times clip…
Then, there are Mr. Walsh’s political problems. Democrats in charge of the Illinois redistricting process have redrawn his district with boundaries overlapping that of Representative Randy Hultgren, a fellow Tea Party Republican. While the new map is being challenged in court, Mr. Walsh said that he was prepared to force Mr. Hultgren into a primary — and that he would be the clear favorite because Mr. Hultgren voted too often with party leaders.
“As a freshman you pick your poison,” Mr. Walsh said, “and maybe leadership is going to help him raise money or open some doors for him and in exchange for that he’s going to give them his vote.”
Mr. Hultgren, who has more than 15 years’ experience in state and local government, brushes off the accusations. “Using a leadership style that emulates Rod Blagojevich or Barack Obama, Joe likes to govern ineffectively though press releases, sound bites, political grandstanding, and name calling,” said his campaign spokesman, Andrew Flach. “He certainly does not lead by example.”
If the boundary challenge fails and the two freshmen lawmakers do face off, it will be in a district where much of the territory comes from Mr. Hultgren’s current district.
Mr. Walsh appeared to be a popular figure at a recent Tea Party convention in Schaumburg, part of his current district. When he stepped to the dais to deliver his luncheon address, the first thing he did was remove his suit jacket. “What’s unique with Joe Walsh is this,” he said, nearing the end of his speech. “You did nothing fancier, you did nothing more complicated, you did nothing more sophisticated than elect one of your own.”
Discuss.
* In other campaign news, Politico includes an Illinois race in a story about five expensive upcoming campaigns…
Illinois’s 10th District, Rep. Robert Dold (R) vs. Democratic winner
Dold has always known his first reelection campaign would be a tough one: He’s a freshman running in a Chicago-area district during a presidential year, when local voters are expected to turn out in droves to support Obama, the city’s favorite son.
So Dold’s been stockpiling cash, which he’ll badly need in the country’s third-most-expensive media market. He enters the fall with almost $1 million in the bank, after raising $367,000 in the third quarter and more than $1.2 million for the cycle.
Brad Schneider, the Democratic front-runner in a multi-candidate primary, had a sub-par quarter with only $79,000 raised. But he’s been frugal in his campaign spending so far and entered the fall with a solid $417,000 in the bank.
Even Republicans acknowledge Dold will be vulnerable, blanketed by Democratic groups hoping to pick him off in a presidential year. But he has turned heads with his early fundraising.
“The fact remains that it’s an expensive media market, and Dold is the best fundraiser of the freshman class,” a top GOP operative said. “And if you’re going to beat Sen. [Mark] Kirk’s protégé in a district that Kirk would have won last year, you’re going to need a dump truck full of cash.”
It’s a bit amazing that Schneider is considered a frontrunner. But Democratic woes being what they are this year, a more well known candidate hasn’t emerged.
…Adding… As a commenter pointed out, the Politico writer was apparently unaware that the 10th is not a Chicago district.
* Related…
* Sweet: Congressional hopefuls stockpiling cash for March
* Republican players look to tap tea party activism
* Video: Meet Tammy Duckworth
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 5:51 am
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The announced field in the Democratic primary in the 10th is surprisingly weak. This characterization however:
{when local voters are expected to turn out in droves to support Obama, the city’s favorite son.}
while perhaps still appropriate in parts of the city, is way off target in the 10th district, where buyers remorse is far outpacing voters enthusiasm for the President.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 6:04 am
Although the field in the 10th is a little weak, money is the single largest factor to scare away competition. Schneider had a very impressive 2Q and has the potential to tap a lot of his own personal money for the race.
As a result he has close to a half a million cash on hand and is starting to solidify support. He got the endorsements of Senators Garrett and Schoenberg, both who would make strong candidates, endorsed him a couple of weeks ago.
Once he starts spending that warchest and gets his name recognition up he will probably be a good candidate. He has strong small business, community and pro-Israel credentials. All necessary to do well in the district.
I don’t think anyone else will jump in the race and I think Scheider will do quite well in the primary because he will be the only candidate to go on the air in a significant way and build name recognition. The general will be tough, but with the new district lines and the warchest that Schneider will build he will probably win that race too and be my districts next Congressman.
Comment by BJ (resident of the 10th) Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 7:11 am
Schneider is the Democratic front-runner in the 10th? According to whom? Ilya Sheyman almost doubled Schneider in fundraising last quarter — and has been picking up a ton of support from all directions including MoveOn.org with 12,000 members in the district, lots of labor leaders, and already has over 350 volunteers. He’s got the momentum, while as WBEZ put it, “Schneider’s total raised this quarter includes a $100,000 loan from himself. Take that away and his fundraising appears to have stalled.”
Comment by UnionMaid Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 8:45 am
I wish I could vote against Walsh. He’s the poster boy for lazy, ignorant, malcontent narcissism that passes for “conservative” in some very sad circles.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 9:21 am
I would disagree on the most expensive in the nation thing and the stats back me up. When the seat was open 12 years ago it was the 2nd most expensive in the country after a california race between a manager of the clinton impeachment and a trial lawyer which the democrats won. In recent years it’s slipped down the most expensive list for a variety of reasons chief among them that the NRCC hasn’t been willing to spend to back up kirk and dold in an expensive liberal district with cheaper more conservative options elsewhere, democrats soured on seals, and the driver in congressional fundraising being ideological candidates like allen west and bachman and grayson .
I don’t know hultgren’s area, but looking at the presidential race the anyone but the establishment movement in the gop doesn’t seem to have gone away and from the outside it makes me skeptical that he can win that race.
Comment by Shore Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 9:45 am
Looks like Dold is following the Kirk path exactly. Difficult initial election, then a surprisingly easy first re-election.
Let’s face it, folks, Schneider and Ilya Sheyman are second-tier candidates, at best.
Comment by so... Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 9:49 am
I think the Walsh-Hultgren primary will be as nasty as the Halvorson-JJJ primary. I’ve heard that Walsh and his staff don’t work too well with other Republican MOCs and their staffs, so I’m guessing he and Hultgren don’t have much love for one another. But I still think Walsh will show better in a primary that the GOP establishment would care to see. He can attract help and will have his workers and walkers out during all of January and February. I don’t know if Hultgren can match that unless other Republican MOCs and powerbrokers import staff and help.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 10:12 am
I will say this about Randy Hultgren. When he won (I was in his district then/think I still am) he had ZERO Ground Game in both the primary and general.
In this new district, at some point Jerry Clarke will need to get a Ground Game, and I dunno if that is Jerry’s forte’. Hultgren may win on the “polish” of the campaign, but getting it out on the streets, I would be very nervous if I was Randy Hultgren if he repeats his Ground Game, or lack thereof.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 10:45 am
Did you drop my post?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 10:51 am
Anon 9:21, the reason Walsh keeps “surviving” is that the term “flawed” has been pounded into our heads for so long that it’s become a secondary consideration. Joe Walsh appeals because he’s one of the few who is still waving OUR flag.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 10:57 am
The spin that the Dem field is weak in IL-10 is just talk. That’s why we hold elections.
In Malcolm Gladwell’s book “Outliers” he makes a big deal out of people who put 10,000 hours into something by a young age. Ilya Sheyman has put 10,000 hours of his life into politics and organizing.
If Ilya has learned stuff along the way, he’s going to be more formidable that many candidates who got into politics at a more advanced age after doing something else first.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 11:29 am
Joe Walsh’s message is simple. He’s the one that’s willing to push the envelope for causes dear to “conservative” activists. Walsh is willing to insult President Obama.
Randy Hultgren is willing to do what the team does and what the bosses tell him to do.
Randy Hultgren can counter that as a team player he can get stuff done for the district. Only problem: Republicans have been telling the faithful government never does anything useful.
You can see Hultgren’s counter flopping already. He’s saying Walsh is ineffective because he works the media. But to “conservative” activists this is being effective.
So Hultgren is gonna have to go after Walsh’s personal history. But if Hultgren appears aligned with “the liberal media” then many Republican voters will tune him out. And Hultgren aligning himself with the establishment reenforces Walsh’s message.
Chickens coming home to roost for the GOP and all.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 11:37 am
The representatives our state elects at the state and federal level is an embarrassment. It’s amazing how many people will blindly follow a deadbeat dad because his only claim to fame is being a loud mouth.
Comment by Mike Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 2:01 pm
==The spin that the Dem field is weak in IL-10 is just talk. That’s why we hold elections.
In Malcolm Gladwell’s book “Outliers” he makes a big deal out of people who put 10,000 hours into something by a young age. Ilya Sheyman has put 10,000 hours of his life into politics and organizing.
If Ilya has learned stuff along the way, he’s going to be more formidable that many candidates who got into politics at a more advanced age after doing something else first. ==
Carl, you’re kidding yourself if you believe that.
Sheyman has $140k to Dold’s nearly $1 million, and no one knows who he is. And if you think his employment with MoveOn.org is going to be an asset in the general election you are insane. If he’s Dold’s general election opponent, they’ll be breaking out the champagne at Dold headquarters.
Comment by so... Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 2:27 pm
Hmmm…Walsh not part of the establishment??? Then why has he cut a deal with Speaker Hastert?
Oh wait Walsh does 2 terms and hands it over to Denny’s son Ethan. That’s the deal
Wht is Hastert involved…his son lost to Hultgren Hultgren in 2010.
I was at the Hultgren campaign last cycle and the grassroots for Hultgren in Kane County was impressive.
Walsh has lost his rabid supporters as they are mostly in the 8th CD.
He just lost an important endorsement from the McHenry Right to Life PAC and the campaign hasn’t even heated up.
Walsh’s tirades and lies will come to an end soon and it’s not soon enough.
Comment by Who is the real Joe Walsh? Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 4:16 pm
===Hmmm…Walsh not part of the establishment??? Then why has he cut a deal with Speaker Hastert?
Oh wait Walsh does 2 terms and hands it over to Denny’s son Ethan. That’s the deal
Wht is Hastert involved…his son lost to Hultgren Hultgren in 2010.
I was at the Hultgren campaign last cycle and the grassroots for Hultgren in Kane County was impressive.
Walsh has lost his rabid supporters as they are mostly in the 8th CD.
He just lost an important endorsement from the McHenry Right to Life PAC and the campaign hasn’t even heated up.
Walsh’s tirades and lies will come to an end soon and it’s not soon enough.====
“Walsh v. Hultgren - Tinfoil Hats Optional.”
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 4:50 pm
Seems to me that an overlooked portion of the Hultgren Walsh fight is Ethan Hastert. Walsh has term limited himself. Might be an opportunity for the Hastert folks to help Walsh and go in after Walsh terms out. Hastert is not likely to have future if Hultgren is re-elected.
Comment by LisleMike Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 4:57 pm
Trust me, Hultgren had PLENTY of ground game last time. I know, I was a part of it.
Walsh certainly does have his supporters, but it comes with a catch. Everyone knows that this District is one of the safest Republican Districts in the State. So, whoever wins has the opportunity to be the Congressman for at least the next 10 years until we get a new map.
Many, many conservatives have a little bit of a worry about Joe. While he may trumpet the positions more, it comes with the downside. He has had so many troubles, can we really expect that he will be able to stay out of major trouble for the next 10 years? While we want someone that can effectively push the agenda, we also want someone that we don’t have to worry about embarrassing us. With Randy, there is zero concern about that. With Joe - who knows.
Comment by Ghost of John Brown Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 5:01 pm
===Trust me, Hultgren had PLENTY of ground game last time. I know, I was a part of it.===
Trust me, I live in the district, (The heart of it in Kendall) have family living all over the district, from near the Quad Cities and in the Collar Counties … there was no presence …
My polling place, and all in the Oswego, Kendall, “Four Point” county area had no signs at the polling place, no checkers, etc …
Randy needs a Ground Game, and if you “thought” that was a presence … heaven help Randy!
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 19, 11 @ 6:52 pm
did walsh possess a ground game last time?
Comment by bored now Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 7:06 am
Walsh’s Ground Game, was Bean’s Hubris and the Republican wave. It was better than Hultgren’s but that is not saying too much. They carried Walsh’s signs, not specifically for Walsh, but completely against Bean.
The Tea Party was more about ousting Bean than going for Walsh, if we want to be totally fair. Remember all the Town Halls and other events aimed more at “anyone but Bean”.
Walsh may face his own Hubris thinking the Tea Party is his “crew”, and not their own movement.
Being a “darling” of something is differnet than having that same crew specifically as your own. Walsh may learn that the hard way.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 7:36 am