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* From your own perspective, which of yesterday’s electoral outcomes was the biggest surprise? Explain, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:26 am
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U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin. From a statewide referendum on marriage in Wisconsin, to a U.S. Senator who is open about being a lesbian. It’s stunning.
Comment by amalia Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:28 am
The Dold loss, not living in the district it seemed he had the best ads on TV and they were not able to sling a ton of mud at him where I thought the ads about his opponent not reporting any income from his business were effective.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:30 am
There wasn’t a lot that surprised me. Biggert has looked off for a few years and you saw in her concession speech this was going to be her last race anyway.
Dold. Guys like schneider used to lose 2-1 in that area. There’s no excuse for that defeat. Also thought arie friedman would do better. notsomuch.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:32 am
@OneMan
Apparently, those advertisements about Schneider’s business experience didn’t sit well with people in the district who are investment and consulting professionals according to the Tribune.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-dold-schneider-election-result-illinois-10th-district-20121106,0,301022,full.story
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:34 am
Foster’s margin. He’s not remotely dynamic personally. But clearly he’s smart enough to insist on a very smart campaign.
Comment by In 630 Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:34 am
Foster’s gaudy win margin. All the polling had it tied or slightly not tied. New district will take a while to model it seems.
Comment by Will Caskey Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:34 am
Tom Cullerton defeating Carole Pankau- icing on the cake for Senate Dems.
Comment by Boone's is Back Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:37 am
I don’t think I can point to one specific race as the biggest surprise to me. The biggest surprise, in my opinion, is the margin of victory for most of what we all thought would be nail biter races. There were just some blowouts last night that I don’t think anyone saw coming.
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:37 am
My biggest surprise last night was that there were no surprises. Candidates who I expected to win won. The Tammys and Elizabeth Warren were ahead in the polls, as was the president in battleground states. I wasn’t sure about Illinois’ constitutional amendment, but I’m not surprised that it was defeated. I saw Vote No ads prominently displayed in places like the New York Times and Real Clear Politics. It was a great campaign.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:37 am
Foster’s margin. Schneider’s win. Sente’s easy win.
Comment by walkinfool Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:40 am
The last thing I remember reading on your site was that Jennifer Bertino Tarrant was floundering, the team was disenchanted and she was down. Yet she beat Plainfield Village Trustee Peck for the 49th Senate District seat.
Comment by tubbfan Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:40 am
Dold’s defeat.
Comment by Just Observing Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:43 am
@Precinct Captain
Not sure if I would consider Schneider’s campaign manager the best authority to offer an opinon on that.
Don’t think a campaign manager has ever said after a win “That was a good attack on us, if I was them I would use it again in 2 years”
Not sure how many consulting and investment professionals had zero revenue. If you are a consulting professional and don’t have any revenue you are just playing in your basement.
That is a bit like me saying I am a professional curler even though I don’t manage to generate any revenue from it. Would let me write off my broom, but it would also be BS.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:47 am
Gill/Davis race. Never thought it would be that close.
Comment by Justbabs Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:47 am
Dold. I thought his ads were great. I expected him to hold that seat for as long as he wanted it.
Now that the seat has flipped, it will be a massive battle for the GOP to re-take it.
The other one was Skip. I thought personal popularity would carry the day.
Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:51 am
A Cook Circuit Court judge fell just short of the required 60 percent on the retention ballot. A few others just barely squeaked over the line. Perhaps this is a glimmer of the possibility of a beginning of the retention system actually working.
Comment by Max Bialystock Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:56 am
Schneider’s win.
I had thought that the Democrats blew it in redistricting by giving Schakowsky in the 9th too much of a favorable D district, rather than putting more Ds into the 10th.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:01 pm
Cullerton beating Pankau. It looked like Ramey’s troops in the west part of the district did nothing to help her while Cullerton’s troops were quite active in that heavily GOP portion.
Comment by Bluefish Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:01 pm
Biggest surprise of the night for me was how heavily my area went Democratic (Bolingbrook). Even in 2008 I don’t recall seeing such a heavy D margin of victory.
Comment by Anon in BB Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:04 pm
i would have to say the Dem #s in DuPage county…
Comment by mark Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:05 pm
@Max Bialystock
All Cook County judges were retained. One fell short of 60% in the suburbs — but more than made up the difference in the City.
Comment by Very Anon Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:06 pm
@Max Bialystock….if only. hey, Dems, do something about those judges who are wildly out of line.
Comment by amalia Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:12 pm
Foster’s margin. Schneider actually winning. And Kate Cloonen in RD79 winning-she was down 8 in a poll a couple weeks ago and was outspent 3 to 1.
Comment by k3 Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:14 pm
“Now that the seat has flipped, it will be a massive battle for the GOP to re-take it.”
Kirk won the district by 12 points. Schneider was a very unimpressive candidate buoyed by gerrymandering, obama turnout, dold spending 2009-mid 2012 running as a kennilworth moderate conservative instead of a lake county kirk moderate.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:23 pm
Dold. With the money behind him and his attempt to appear independent of his former Republican friends, I thought he’d win. But, the Obama turnout did him in.
Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:31 pm
Congressional surprise: Dold losing, Foster winning by such a big margin
State Senate surprise: Melinda Bush getting the win
State Rep surprise: Conroy’s big win, McSweeney’s big win
Comment by dave Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:38 pm
Shore,
1) Dold is not Kirk;
2) The district is not the same;
3) GOP primaries inevitably push a candidate to the right, and a candidate to the right cannot win that district.
Nobody on the losing side wants to deal with reality the day after a loss but that’s the reality.
It is too bad. If I lived in the district, I probably would have supported Dold.
But he needs to go on to the next chapter in his life, and the GOP needs to realize that it is going to be an extremely difficult challenge to take this one back.
Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:52 pm
As I noted late last week, none of the federal races surprised me. Granted, I didn’t think the top six GOP targets would go one for six, but after seeing the wave in 2010, it’s no shock the wave collapsed backwards.
I am surprised that Carole Pankau and Joe Neal lost. Garrett Peck’s loss was not as much of a surprise given the overall bent of the district. After DPI spent a small fortune to defeat Skip, his loss is not a surprise, either.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:04 pm
I am surprised just how eerily accurate Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) was in predicting the Presidential outcome and the other races. This solidifies him as the definitive expert on predicting election outcomes for the foreseeable future.
Comment by Knome Sane Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:30 pm
Rich Morthland. I sure didn’t see that one coming.
Comment by Eve Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:30 pm
Derrick Smith and / or Jessie Jackson Jr. I guess that was when I felt that maintaining the integrity of the electoral process was akin to pushing a boulder up a mountain. And, yes I do realize that these two guys are innocent until proven guilty. But it made it seem that the bar has been “set so low” (in my opinion) that other voters have to look up to look down.
Comment by Snooky Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:33 pm
Shilling’s and Nixon’s loss.
Comment by Bitterman Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:43 pm
@Skeeter - I don’t know, I think its conceivable that Dold could win a rematch, despite the new Democratic lean of the district. In 2014, with 2 years of votes to defend, a mid-term turnout that is less favorable to Democrats than general elections, and the history of the district, it is reasonable to believe that Dold could overcome the thin margin he lost by. It may depend on the strength of the GOP gubenatorial candidate and how much that can drive Republican turnout.
Comment by Bluejay89 Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:52 pm
JJJ. Not surprised that he won but I took the over on him cracking 70%. He only got 63%.
Comment by Been There Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:59 pm
I think the biggest surprise was Mike Madigan winning the race for Mayor of Melrose Park.
Comment by CasualObserver Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:04 pm
Nothing in Illinois other than Pat Brady woke up this morning with his job description intact; the North Dakota Senate race was much more surprising.
Minnesota giving the DFL complete control of the statehouse was quite a change from 2010.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:07 pm
How selfish voters are. Give them a check and a promise and they’ll sell their children’s and grandchildren’s economic future down the river.
Yesterdays voters did all they could to ensure that their meal ticket gets punched regardless of the societal costs.
It’s a brave new world.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:31 pm
For as Red of states they are, Indiana and Missouri turning their backs on Mourdock and Akin. There are Red states where those comments would not have mattered (Oklahoma, for example). They did in Indiana (where Donnelly is the first Democratic senator not named Bayh since the 1970s) and Missouri.
Comment by Anyone Remember? Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:41 pm
VanillaMan,
I kinda disagree with you here. The onus is on Republicans to lay out our plans and teach and lead on our principles. Romney only really pressed on this in the final weeks of the campaign (thanks Sandy for taking away a week of time). I don’t believe voters were ever presented with a time of instruction on what a conservative plan of governance really means, to the voters, their children and their pocketbooks. It’s a Republican problem I can accept. Voters bought the propaganda, granted. Who’s fault is that?
Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:46 pm
VMan nailed it.
Voting for the guys that spent the last four years creating jobs and killing terrorists? What an amazingly selfish act by those voters. It is almost like voters demand jobs and security.
Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:49 pm
There were several surprising Democratic senate wins but none moreso than North Dakota electing Heidi Heitkamp. She ran a nearly flawless campaign…but North Dakota? Seriously?
Comment by Chevy owner/Ford County Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:57 pm
Max B
Which Cook County judge failed to be retained? I check the numbers at both Orr’s office and the City Board of Elections and all were retained as far as I can tell.
Comment by reformer Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:17 pm
* Rep. Sandy Cole losing by 10 points.
* Every legislator who voted for the temporary income tax was re-elected, including two suburbanites, Nekritz and Kotowski.
* Deb Conroy winning the first all-DuPage Democratic seat by 16 points. Shaw worked his magic again.
* Judge Cynthia Brim, who has been suspended from the bench since she was charged with battery against a deputy, easily won retention, carrying both the ‘burbs and the City by over 60%.
Comment by reformer Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:22 pm
To approximately 1/2 of U.S. Citizens, I am sorry you and your state have poised the America I love so much, in a position moving towards socialization of medicine, a weaker defense, a less productive society, that does not comprehend a strong work ethic, the personal reward and greater financial independence. Pray for America!!
Comment by Mr. Upset Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:23 pm
71 - Mike Smiddy over Rich Morthland
Comment by NW Illinois Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:34 pm
“How selfish voters are.”
Yeah, unlike those patriotic millionaires and billionaires who pay no taxes. Oh, that’s right he lost.
Comment by wishbone Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:42 pm
Sorry, this is not from Illinois but it is to our benefit. The prop for Missouri cig tax FAILED. My assumption was that it would due to the fact that large numbers of people in IL are buying them there, buying gas, and a bite to eat. Wake up Illinois!
Comment by Maxine on Politics Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 5:21 pm
I followed Nate Silver because, as a scientist, it seems to me his statistical methods for analyzing poll data are sound and superior to anybody else’s. As it happens, every US Senate candidate he said was likely to win did win, and every state in the nation went for the Presidential candidate that Nate said was more likely to carry the state. Florida remains too close to call, and it was the one state that Nate called a 50-50 tossup. It also appears he predicted the popular vote margin correctly within one percentage point. So nothing on the national level surprised me. On the state level, I was surprised and pleased that the Democrats achieved a supermajority in both chambers of the GA. This should clear the way for getting a graduated income tax Constitutional Amendment on the 2014 ballot, so that hopefully the 5% flat tax can be replaced by a graduated tax when it expires in 2015.
Comment by jake Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 6:00 pm
VanillaMan, thanks for making my prediction come true. You nailed it. Pure genius. You sir should be the one to lead your party to its destiny. Your commentary almost leaves me speechless. Almost.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 6:07 pm
Chris Matthews saying, “I’m so glad we had that storm last week”. Priceless….
Comment by Holdingontomywallet Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 7:08 pm
Gay marriage has turned the corner.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 7:19 pm
Jake
Every House Dem would have to vote Yes to put a graduated income tax amendment on the ballot. There are downstate conservatives who might be hard to persuade, even though they have few residents who would pay the higher taxes. I wonder if Madigan would put all his targets on that vote?
Comment by reformer Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 8:48 pm