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* I think the biggest mistake some Republicans can make is to assume that their 2010 primary vote will equal their 2014 primary base. Times change. Tastes change. New candidates emerge. While some candidates will be more known than others because of their previous run(s), that doesn’t mean they’ll end up in the same place as before.
Keep that in mind while reading this e-mail that Sen. Bill Brady sent to his supporters…
In 2010, when I led the ticket, Republicans elected a United States Senator, four new Congressmen and several new state legislators. I unfortunately fell short by less than one percent – a swing of just 16,000 votes out of the more than 3.5 million cast. There’s no question that Illinois is worse off than we were four years ago and that there’s still much work to be done to rebuild our economy and rein in our state spending.
I am now asked every day whether I will run for Governor again in 2014, and I want you to know that Nancy, my campaign and I are laying the groundwork to finish the job we started together three years ago.
Our state debt has now soared to a staggering $21,607 for every resident of Illinois. Under Governor Quinn, more than 290,000 jobs have been lost. Wall Street has lost confidence in Illinois and downgraded our credit rating 11 times alone since 2009 when Quinn took office – more than half the total downgrades in our state’s entire history.
Illinois is at a tipping point. We’ve suffered a decade of decline, debt and despair under two Democrat governors. Our challenges are great, and our state’s leadership has proved itself weak. People may debate my solutions, but they should never doubt my resolve to helping lead Illinois toward a brighter future.
We need to reduce our debt, fix the pension system, and reinstate sound fiscal principles in the state of Illinois. Illinois families and employers continue to face tough times with unemployment, the economy and out-of-control government spending. The decisions we make today in response to those challenges will affect us for the next generation.
We must continue to work to rebuild our economy, encourage our employers to invest in Illinois, reduce the size and cost of government and provide greater opportunities for our children. I am committed to making the necessary tough decisions to bring Illinois back to the greatness we once knew.
Polling shows that I have earned far more support and recognition than any of the other Republicans who have expressed interest in running in 2014. Just as importantly, polling shows that I am best positioned to take back the Governor’s Office, no matter who the Democrat nominee is. Unlike others, I have shown I can build an enthusiastic first-class organization, raise the millions of dollars necessary and withstand the white-hot scrutiny of the media and Democrats in a hotly contested gubernatorial contest.
I hope you’ll offer me your advice over the next several weeks as I continue to travel throughout the state speaking to Illinois citizens and make my final decision. I want to hear what you think, the issues you consider important and the suggestions you may have to resolve those many challenges we face. Another email in the near future will contain an on-line issues poll that will take only a few moments to answer.
And I hope you’ll take a minute right now to support my efforts with your most generous contribution. . Your contributions and support in 2010 almost put us over the top. This will be another hard-fought campaign, and your investment today is important to the decisions I make. You may click on the link above to contribute by credit card, or you may send your contribution to the address below.
Thanks for your past support, and together, you and I can finish the job and set Illinois on a better course for our families.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:00 am
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Previous Post: A tale of two states
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I will send him a check.
Of course, I would like to see Lisa Madigan as our next gov.
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:06 am
If he runs it will be a gift from heaven for the Democrats.
Comment by Mouthy Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:06 am
“I am now asked every day whether I will run for Governor again in 2014, and I want you to know that Nancy, my campaign and I are laying the groundwork to finish the job we started together three years ago”
Losing again and killing the Republican Party?
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:14 am
“…Republicans elected a United States Senator, four new Congressmen and several new state legislators…” Yet you did not win. Why was that? What was different about you from the rest of these WINNING Republicans?
(Hint, hint: It wasn’t because they were more conservative.)
Comment by Not It Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:19 am
Great example of political-speak. Sounds great, says little, beyond the ask for money.
This guy stood out from his peers three years ago, as someone who didn’t understand the simplest budget issues — though maybe he just avoids substance in all public statements.
Comment by walkinfool Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:20 am
Perhaps Brady would have done better had there been a different candidate on the ticket for Lt. Governor.
Comment by Downstate Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:22 am
Senator Brady, whatever it might say, your email is about 8 paragraphs too long. Just remember BCH: “Brevity, clarity, humanity.”
Comment by Dan Bureaucrat Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:23 am
===is to assume that their 2010 primary vote will equal their 2014 primary base.===
Right “On Point”.
The other issue is, when all these GOP nominees are stating…===…my campaign and I are laying the groundwork…===
Does that mean an actual “ground game” in that “groundwork”?
All these emails and pressers are great. The problem lies in thinking the number of voters that voted for you in our primary in 2010 and the voting universe in 2014 are the same, given the fluid GOP and how THIS Primary is shaping up.
The ILGOP is not only going to have Bill Brady, Dan Rutherford, Aaron Schock, but others new to a Republican Ballot, enticing the Far Right, and courting the moderates.
Further, drawing your “pluses” you THINK you had before, or drawing from 2nd tier Repub primary voters is not going to work. Find your voters, and they may or may not be the same voters in 2014 that were YOUR voters of 2010. That goes for all the “Re-Runs”
The bottom line, this primary is going to be more about understanding the pool of voters, what your pluses look like, and where to get them, and actually GET THEM TO THE POLLS, becasue 2014 is going to be far different than 2010, because of landscape, the candidate pool, and literally time.
Whoever learns that first, wins. Oh, and gets their “pluses” to the polls will help.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:23 am
How can he even say with a straight face he has the best chance to beat a Democrat no poll shows that he has the best shot at that - unless he is counting the polls beating PQ two weeks before the election and we see how well he did there. 1st class organization - please that whole thing was a joke from the morning after the Primary that was the worst organization I had seen and Clarke - don’t even get me started on that one. Bill had more fun driving around in his bus and his great Chicago Condo than actually campaigning. He did raise some money but only so he could piss that away on vendors, crappy mail pieces, paying himself back, his kids pizza and beer parties and campaign material that wasn’t even used on election day! So Bill please do us all a favor and give it up - you are a nice fun guy - but no way are you Governor material, enjoy your time in the Senate and start paying some taxes!
Comment by no more Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:27 am
how many times must we tell him NO. reminds of bob dole.
Comment by wizard Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:28 am
He’s asking for advice:
Don’t run. Give Republicans a chance. You’ve lost twice previously (primary and general).
Comment by Dazed & Confused Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:32 am
Senator Brady promises to “set Illinois on a better course for our families.” Spoken like a true family value republican. Keep your “family value” agenda out of the legislature and focus on the budget, employment, health care, infrastructure and solutions for caring for an aging population. Senator Brady, I will then set a better course for my family without your “assistance.”
Comment by Samurai Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:34 am
There are a lot of scenarios to play out and he has to lay a few blocks for his own run. Lisa is still young and I don’t think she is delusional enough to think she can fix this mess if Mike can’t with a veto proof majority. Quinn does not appear ready to ride into the sunset. Brady would have won by 5 points in the last election, but the IEA and AFSMCME endorsements netted about 1.5 million and a lot of boots on the ground. Quinn has crawfished on his deal with AFSCME not to close facilities and won’t even negotiate with them. He cut a deal with the IEA to pass Ed reform in return for not touching their pensions and is now going to take their pensions. If Lisa stays put, Brady can beat Quinn. Of course this is dependent on the unions deciding to take a guy they know will cut them over a guy they know they can’t trust.
Unless someone else pops up, Lisa Stays put, the unions endorse Quinn, but Brady wins anyway. Brady will gut social services and balance the budget but be hated. With the finances worked the throne will be availalbe for Queen Lisa in 2018. I think this is what Madigan wanted this go round, but he underestimated Quinn and over estimated the republican party.
Comment by the Patriot Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:34 am
===the unions endorse Quinn===
You … sure … about that?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:40 am
dear bill
my advice is dont run. you won the primary by the narrowest of margins, due to a splintered field, not because of any first class campaign organization.
you couldnt win against PAT QUINN, the accidental governor, who is as inept as they come. another election will be no different, because you are unable to appeal to suburban voters, women, and moderates. pat quinns base beats your base.
this email lists many of the things we need to work on, but not one word about how to do any of them. and what is there in your record that suggests leadership or accomplishment to give anyone confidence in you?
so crank up the campaign, run, lose and get it over with.
Comment by langhorne Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:40 am
@the Patriot:
He would earn that hatred if he gutted social services.
Comment by Demoralized Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:41 am
I’ll have what he’s smoking/drinking please…the Dems will win the Governor’s race, again in 2014…quite the prediction huh?
Comment by Loop Lady Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:46 am
He’s the David Gill for the Republican Governor’s primary.
Comment by OurMagician Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:51 am
Given Quinn’s unpopularity and the fiscal situation of our State, Brady might be able to beat Quinn in 2014, the key word is might, the guy is just not going to play in the burbs, he’s already proven that. He has absolutely no chance against anyone else in the Democratic Party. It’s time to look for someone who can win in November.
Comment by Ahoy! Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:55 am
Please don’t run again for governor, Sen. Brady. I think you are a decent and good man. But this state needs a vibrant (or at least functional) two party system in order to get things done while acknowledging and representing the genuine and sometimes conflicting interests of the residents of IL. These times call for a different Republican candidate for governor at the next election–one that can win, and can help provide balance to the Democratic legislature.
Comment by Responsa Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 9:58 am
Voted for Proft last time because he was anti-establishment but I would happily support Brady or Walsh or Pat Hughes not because they’re conservative but because they’re anti-status quo. The images yesterday of Ryan and Thompson re-enforced why I am so militantly against Dillard, Rutherford, and Schock and that’s because of how sick I am of combine Republicans who stand for nothing.
Comment by shore Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:00 am
Hey Republicans, even I would entertain the notion of voting for a Republican for governor. Not this guy though–he convinced me to vote for Quinn last time. In spite of everything I do not regret that vote.
Comment by Cheryl44 Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:07 am
Brady has to develop a character to get in the ring and slug is out with “Squeezy” !!
Comment by Meaningless Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:11 am
Dear ALL GOP Canididates;
Do not select Jason Plummer as your running mate.
Sincerely,
Everyone.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:12 am
Bill Brady has lost 3 races now. Besides a primary and general for Governor, he lost a congressional primary to Tim Johnson in 2000. He had no ground game and a terrible campaign in 2010. He ran against the most radioactive opponent possible and still managed to lose. I’ve heard him say their vote models were off because of the Preckwincke surge etc etc. Mark Kirk, Topinka and Rutherford all had the same surge to deal with but they won.
I’ve seen astonishing spin before but his first line here claiming credit for the GOP 2010 wins because he was on top of the ticket is just ludicrous. Rather than him claiming credit for the 2010 GOP wins, HE IS responsible for the GOP losses in 2012. If he hadn’t blown the governor’s race the maps for Congress and state house and senate might have been a lot different. Can’t take the credit in 2010 if he isn’t willing to shoulder the blame in 2012.
He can’t raise money in a campaign either. Plus he has been bankrupt and his companies are being sued now for nonpayment. What in the world does he think will be different this time? He is just too full of himself.
Comment by ame Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:13 am
Considering the target market for the letter, I don’t have any qualms with the contents. If PQ is again the democratic candidate, the door of opportunity will be open for the GOP primary winner. Brady may be in the best position to win the GOP primary because he does connect well with the GOP base. The moderate votes may split among Rutherford and Dillard. Schock and Rauner are still wild cards in this race. It seems Quinn’s best chance for re-election is to have Brady, again, as his opponent.
Comment by Endangered Moderate Species Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:19 am
Well, looks like a shorter election season if this guy gets the Repub nomination. It’ll be all over next March and we’ll know who our (Democratic) governor is. A governor who will be elected by a small number of primary voters.
It’ll probably be all over next March anyway, but the Republicans could give themselves a decent chance. But self-destruction is today’s Republican theme and it doesn’t seem to be changing much. So much the worse for Illinois but we can’t say we didn’t know it.
Comment by cassandra Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:19 am
More than once Brady talks about how he’s going to “rebuild our economy.”
What does that even mean? How does one shrink govermment while undertaking “rebuilding” the massive economy within the state.
It’s always curious how some make a direct connection between state finances and the economy.
The economy was humming along pretty smoothly during the Blago years. Was he some sort of financial wizard or something?
State finances have a marginal effect on the economy, at best. We’re part of a global economy and there are much greater forces in play — that none of us have any control over.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:20 am
Joe Walsh for Governor?? Whatever you say Jethro. The GOP will soon be nothing more that an irrelevant party relegated to the dust bin of history.
Comment by Samurai Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:20 am
1. Lay of fthe social issue talk. Talk fiscal
2. Wear socks
Comment by Wumpus Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:36 am
As a Republican, it is completely frustrating how people like Brady are willing to sacrifice the Republican Party on the altar of their egos. He has always been too conservative to win. He can’t win, he won’t win, and he has been told this repeatedly but still continues to take up people’s time, money and votes - things that could be better used by a moderate Republican candidate.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:39 am
Dear Senator Brady,
You would make a fine governor in:
Kentucky
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
N-S Dakota
Montana
but not a state with the size, diversity, economy and challenges of Illinois. You have not demonstrated any ability to think outside a little white bubble a couple hundred miles from any large US city.
You will need to be a governor of 12 million people, the vast majority of whom have never been anywhere near your hometown. You are not prepared to be a governor over Chicagoland. You would be laughably out of place anywhere south of Roosevelt Road and north of I-80. That region covers about 3 million people with whom you share few common interests, certainly too few to make a necessary connection as a governor to them.
While you may have the ability to empathise with many Illinoians, you have not shared that empathy through the public policies over the past decade. You have not demonstrated that empathy through your past campaigns.
You, sir, are simply too flawed, even if you could be elected, to, in my opinion, to be a governor of ILLINOIS.
Don’t run. You had the greatest chance ever given to a conservative Republican to win the governorship four years ago. You blew it so badly your interest in 2014 is showing us that you are completely out of touch.
Stop it. Rehabilitate yourself. Start with running a no-kill shelter for strays somewhere around Dolton, Harvey or Riverdale.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:47 am
Like others, I think Brady would be a long shot and hope he doesn’t run. I’d like for a more viable candidate to emerge that can actually win.
I think the talk about Madigan preferring someone else to make the hard choices, get the negative publicity and then her running when things are lined out makes sense.
Comment by Logic not emotion Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:54 am
How about a Brady/Walsh ticket! That would be fun!
Comment by dave Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 10:56 am
“the IEA and AFSMCME endorsements netted about 1.5 million and a lot of boots on the ground.”
Patriot,
That is totally false and really a horrible analysis. Where did you come up with 1.5 million? 1) They dont have any where close to that many members, even if you include households; 2) you don’t think some of those “1.5 million” members would have voted Democratic if not for their unions endorsement?
Please don’t make stuff up.
Comment by WizzardOfOzzie Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 11:01 am
===1.5 million===
Reference to $$$, not the total of the “boots on the ground”
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 11:03 am
You’re missing the point. The party needs something fresh that is not establishment and not me-too Democrats. There’s no point in spending 12 years in the wilderness if you’re just going to go back to the past with dillard/rutherford.
Comment by shore Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 11:26 am
As there will be no concensus candidate, the more the merrier. However, another downstate candidate will wipe out Brady’s only advantage.
Comment by overcooked Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 11:38 am
Brady’s 2006 total is pretty close to his 2010 vote total.
Comment by Easy Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 12:32 pm
Here is a guy who claims credit for wins down the ballot, but couldn’t pull off his own victory at the top of the ticket. And he was running against Quinn! Really, Senator, time to get out of the way.
Comment by Publius Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 12:45 pm
==In 2010, when I led the ticket, Republicans elected a United States Senator, four new Congressmen and several new state legislators.==
He forgot to take credit for getting a GOP Comptroller and Treasurer elected too. Why wouldn’t he mention Topinka and Rutherford? Are they too … dare I say it … moderate?
Comment by Roamin' Numeral Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 1:08 pm
Anonymous 10:39 wasn’t me–and there is absolutely no previous history that shows that 10:39 is even a Republican.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 1:20 pm
193 vote win in the primary. There’s no way he can pull that off twice. The GOP needs to unite behind one candidate and save their $ for the general.
Comment by WazUp Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 1:21 pm
=== Under Governor Quinn, more than 290,000 jobs have been lost. ===
Total Non-farm jobs in Illinois:
January, 2009: 5,679,200
December, 2012: 5,745,400
Brady was only off by about 350,000 jobs. He clearly needs a new factchecker.
Comment by Math Counts Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 1:23 pm
- Anonymous -,
You are everywhere lately. We even got into it … I think(?)
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 1:31 pm
Trade places with Nancy. She would get more votes.
Comment by Dirty Red Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 2:44 pm
===Trade places with Nancy. She would get more votes.===
I kinda think that if a candidate loses a statewide bid, the spouse should be the only one eligible to run the next time.
Nancy Brady and Stephanie Dillard are two cases in point. I know Stephanie more than Nancy and lemme tell you she’d make a dynamite candidate. No offense, Kirk. Just sayin…
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 2:51 pm
A downstate social conservative who’ll scare off suburban moderates may get the ‘14 GOP nomination, but it won’t be Brady. His opponents will have the “you had Pat Quinn as an opponent in a wave year and still couldn’t win” argument to use against him.
The spin taking credit for that wave is creative, I will give him that.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 3:34 pm
–A downstate social conservative who’ll scare off suburban moderates may get the ‘14 GOP nomination, but it won’t be Brady. His opponents will have the “you had Pat Quinn as an opponent in a wave year and still couldn’t win” argument to use against him.–
Any ideas on the other Downstater? I agree, Brady must be damaged goods after 2010. I can’t imagine why he would get another bite at the apple.
But, then again, I never saw Alan Keyes coming, either (one day, when the histories of the Obama presidency are written, the Illinois GOP Central Committee is going to get a lot more attention than they are used to).
I still can’t believe Quinn won, not in that GOP wave, not with Blago around his neck, not in a horrible economy, not given Quinn’s electoral track record.
But win, he did.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 3:53 pm
Advice for Bill Brady? Do NOT run! Last time you stated you don’t believe in science or evolution, and that is a killer for anyone with a brain. Please step aside and let a more reasonable and rational person be the candidate.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 1, 13 @ 3:56 pm