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* The Bill Daley campaign released results of a statewide poll of likely general election voters late last night. Notice, however, that the campaign didn’t release any Daley numbers. The polling memo…
Lisa Madigan is personally popular (54% favorable / 26% unfavorable), and she leads Dan Rutherford among general-election voters in a head-to-head race for Governor (Madigan 50% / Rutherford 34%), whom we used as a placeholder candidate. Rutherford is currently only known to one-third (37%) of voters. Her lead also holds up after we give voters positive information about both candidates (Madigan 49% / Rutherford 38%).
However, Madigan faces a tough battle if she runs for Governor and her father remains Speaker of the House. In a vote between Lisa Madigan and Rutherford where her father does not resign his office, Lisa is in a dead heat with Rutherford (Madigan 41% / Rutherford 41%).
Voters shift away from Madigan after they hear of a conflict of interest with Speaker.
After voters hear the following about Mike and Lisa Madigan serving as Governor and Speaker, an easy message for Republicans to execute, the race moves to a tie (41% Madigan / 41% Rutherford). This includes a 27-point shift among Independents, who move from supporting Madigan by 4 points (Madigan 37% / Rutherford 33%) to opposing her by 23 points (Madigan 26% / Rutherford 49%).
“There has been some talk about Attorney General Lisa Madigan running for Governor. As you may know, her father, Mike Madigan, is Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives. If she is elected Governor, some say that creates a major conflict of interest to have family members running both branches of state government. If Mike Madigan decided not to retire or resign as Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives and the candidates for Governor were Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, a Democrat, and Illinois State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, a Republican, for whom would you vote?”
Voters are heavily concerned about how this relationship will affect state government. It’s a “serious concern” to 53% of voters that “If Lisa Madigan is elected Governor, the Madigans will control two branches of state government. This will put too much power in one family’s hands and break the system of checks and balances that is supposed to keep power in government separated.” A further 17% of voters think this is “somewhat of a concern”, making 70% total say it is a concern.
Nearly a majority will not consider voting for Lisa Madigan if her father is Speaker. A near majority of voters (49%) have already cut themselves off from voting for her as Attorney General if her father continues as Speaker. This shows shows the deep skepticism voters have of having the same family control two branches of government:
Which of the following statements comes closest to your own view, even if none is exactly right?
Lisa Madigan has been a good attorney general, and I am open to voting for her for Governor despite her father’s position….38%
I like Lisa Madigan, but I would have a hard time voting for her if her father continues as Speaker….23%
At this time, I plan to vote against Lisa Madigan regardless of her father’s position….26%
[VOL] Don’t know/refused….12%
* The poll, by the way, was taken in April…
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N=600 live landline and cellphone interviews with likely 2014 general election voters in Illinois between April 10-15, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.0% with a 95% confidence level and higher for subgroups.
* Sun-Times…
The wording in the question is undoubtedly loaded. However, it is likely to pale in comparison to how opponents would portray Lisa Madigan in TV ads during a primary or general election.
“Biased language? I don’t think that it’s anything in the extreme. We’re not making the argument that mimics paid communication,” Anzalone said. “It clearly affects the vote when you help people connect the dots.”
And…
In Springfield on Tuesday, the Speaker chuckled sarcastically when asked about a possible conflict with he and his daughter holding those offices.
“Oh, really?” he said.
He was asked if he saw it as a conflict of interest — having a Gov. Madigan and a Speaker Madigan.
“You know what, I’m not going to address those questions today,” Michael Madigan said. “But you should take the conflict of interest questions to your editors. Talk to them about conflict of interest.”
Um, hmm.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:33 am
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It’s all part of the three-dimensional chess, 12-year Master Conspiracy.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:39 am
I think everyone can take one poll other another with a grain of salt. The Madigans are still standing. This is Illinois. Lisa is the strongest candidate by far. Does Bill Daley want to talk about his TARP bailout as a crony capitalist at JP Morgan Chase? Does Bill Daley want to talk about all those Obama scandals ?? Does Bill Daley want to talk about Chicago Parking Meters his son is benefiting from? Does Bill Daley want to talk about what’s in his divorce file??? Does Bill Daley want to talk about the patronage army he helped founded to get his brother elected? At least Lisa Madigan can show that she took on Rod Blagojevich and his “partner” Eric Holder when they wanted to put a casino in Rosemont.
http://www.cdobs.com/archive/featured/flashback-eric-holder-as-blagojevich-bagman/
Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:42 am
Bad Karma in this race …
Not that it might get nasty (it will), or that any of the three can’t handle a nasty race, or even that “Chicago/Everyplace outside Chicago” dynamic of any and all of them is odd at this point.
There is an ugly Karma cloud hanging on this race, for me, like when you are someplace, and its really nice and everyone is friendly, but you KNOW there is a bad vibe, and you are uncomfortable the entire time. That is how this is feeling for me. This “April” poll is not helping.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:44 am
This confirms what many suspect is the biggest chink in Lisa’s armor. I think she would be a good gov, but the opponents’ ads write themselves.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:44 am
This is a big problem for Lisa Madigan’s campaign (or is it possible campaign). How does she distance herself from her father? Big issue with voters and this recent pension fight just shed a big light on Lisa Madigan. I gotta believe that is more the motivation of Bill Daley getting in (or at least exploring). Fairly or unfairly, it just does tie Lisa to her dad who is at the moment down.
Comment by MrGrassroots Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:47 am
If Lisa Madigan advances from the position of Attorney General to that of Governor, it will be historic. Not only would Madigan be the first female Governor of Illinois, but she would become the first Attorney General to be elected Governor.
Many others have tried and failed (Hartigan, Burris, Ryan, Carlstrom, et al.) to name a few.
Comment by Esquire Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:49 am
Bill Daley is a sharp guy. He’s made a lot money using his connections. The more he looks like he’s running the more valuable he is as a lobbyist. Don’t be surprised if Daley drops out at some point after he gets a behind the scenes deal.
Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:49 am
And when reminded of Bill’s connection to the Daley machine, the offsetting result will be …
It appears that we may have a Fight of the Families brewing. Something Quinn wants to ferment for his own benefit.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 9:49 am
Those poll numbers will change big time once the TV ads start playing
Comment by foster brooks Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:01 am
Also hard for Lisa to make the claim “A new day” or “Let’s fix the state” with this hanging out there.
Comment by walkinfool Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:04 am
–The more he looks like he’s running the more valuable he is as a lobbyist.–
How?
Is he taking on clients right now? I doubt it.
If he withdraws, how does that make him more valuable as a lobbyist?
If he runs, he won’t be lobbying.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:07 am
===The more he looks like he’s running the more valuable he is as a lobbyist===
Yeah, because publicizing polls like the one above is REALLY gonna help him lobby the MJM-controlled Statehouse.
Right.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:10 am
(Snark)
Daley v. Madigan …Where does a “Burke” fall on this?
I have been saying, one of these Guv candidates needs to have Danny Burke as the LG, so you can finish “all family business” with the Daleys, Madigans and Burkes finally all in the same statewide race, and with serious skin in the game.
Sneedless to say, adding a “Burke” would have the reporters covering this race, “Over the Moon”, eating lunch somewhere with Jay Doherty somewhere.
(again, this is snark…thank you)
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:12 am
I am going to go on a limb here…
Bill Daley doesn’t need to “appear” to be running for governor to open any doors. Usually, doors open for him, by doormen or special key card given to Bill Daley.
Just saying …
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:16 am
Rich:
Bill Daley can lobby pretty much anywhere. White House, Congress, federal bureaucracy . Who’s says he’s limiting himself to an MJM controlled Statehouse??? The more he gets his name out there as political material, the potential for making even more money. Economists have a technical term for all this, it’s called rent-seeking. No one does it better than Bill Daley.
Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:17 am
I suspect Mike has pushed so hard for a substantial “fix” of the pension problem, including burning long-term Dem bridges, as a final big “win” prior to stepping down.
It certainly isn’t helping either him or Lisa politically right now.
I’m probably wrong again, in trying to read the guy’s intentions.
Comment by walkinfool Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:21 am
I wonder if her supporters are saying “Mike, you aren’t helping.”
Of course her support drops when you point this out to voters. But it doesn’t sound as if any negative scripts were read about republican candidates as part of this poll. And still no poll showing her losing in this race.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:22 am
===Bill Daley can lobby pretty much anywhere. White House, Congress, federal bureaucracy . Who’s says he’s limiting himself to an MJM controlled Statehouse??? The more he gets his name out there as political material, the potential for making even more money.===
“Bill Daley” rainmakers… look at a run for office, statewide or not, as a hinderence to making it Rain. Find me a major corporation or industry that would not …today … take Bill Daley’s phone call, and I will point to you a group, business or industry not understanding much about anything governmental.
Are you saying ….Former Commerce Secretary, Fromer Presidential Chief of Staff, National Campaign Manager …Bill Daley … is “resume padding”?
Yikes!
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:24 am
Hey Willy, maybe that’s the conflict of interest Mr. Speaker was talking about to the S-T guy. Mess up my plan and Sneed loses four years of lead stories.
#snarktoo. #3dchessishard
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:27 am
–The more he gets his name out there as political material, the potential for making even more money.===
Yeah, his name recognition could use some bucking up.
If anything, his long-time Hamlet routine when it comes to running for political office is a negative. You don’t exactly look like a powerhouse when you make noises to run for every office then drop out before the heavy lifting starts.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:35 am
“Andersen-Ville,
Did - Arthur Andersen - uncover the “conflict of interest” the Powerful Speaker of the House Mike Madigan was referring to?
To wit;
This reporter is known for ’scoopsville’ and if the Powerful Finance Chair and his lovely wife the wonderful Mr. Edward, and Justice Anne Burke aren’t eating lunch with insight to the Guv’s race, there won’t be a “conflict”, right?
Sneedless to say, Me thinks Mr. Speaker believes some candidates might be ‘over the moon’ to be in ‘Tipsville’? Nawwww.
Stay Tuned.”
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:37 am
Oh, Willy. You truly are Age-less and Price-less!
Comment by LincolnLounger Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 10:55 am
To Everyone:
Bill Daley’s bank account says it all. All about perception and connections. When people perceive you are still very connected and involved : they pay up.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/bill-daley-made-8-7-million-from-jpmorgan-last-year/
Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:04 am
those are bad numbers for republicans who still after 11 years in the wilderness have not figured out a way to get over 51 percent or whatever kirk got against alexi in 2010 in a major gov or senate or president statewide race.
It’s going to have to be one madigan or the other I think for voters and especially editorial boards.
Comment by Shore Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:04 am
Anybody who thinks this isn’t going to be an ongoing problem for her should she run really isn’t paying attention. Foster Grant is right when he says, “Those poll numbers will change big time once the TV ads start playing.” Yup, they’ll
change alright. Once Rauner or national Rs start throwing millions into negative TV ads tying Lisa to the problems of the state via the Speaker, they’ll change big time.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:09 am
Is Daley’s run pure ego? Did he see Rahm win the mayor’s office in the first round after being CoS and think “Hey! I can do that too!”
Who is advising him that he has a shot?
Comment by State Sen. Clay Davis Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:10 am
I have seen the AG disagree with her father enough that I dont think there will be a conflict of interest; however it could lead to some interesting conflicts at thanksgiving dinner.
The AG and the Speaker are both their own stubborn people. They are not going to change who they are and what they belive for the other. I see more conflict then conflict of interest, If people thing the SPeaker will bend to his daughter or vice versa, they havent been paying attention.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:15 am
Lisa won’t run. She will wait for a run for the Senate seat against Mark Kirk, if he runs again.
MJM surely doesn’t want the Attorney General to be a Republican. Too much power in the office for MJM’s liking.
Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:19 am
If anything, I’m surprised how well LM hangs in after voters have the conflict spelled out to them. 41-41 after an extremely effective negative message is pretty solid.
Comment by L.S. Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:22 am
Downstater,
That makes no sense. If she wanted to be in the Senate, she had an engraved invitation and clear path in 2010. And anyone who runs against Mark Kirk will be cannon fodder. He’s darn near invincible if he chooses to run for re-elect.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:23 am
===MJM surely doesn’t want the Attorney General to be a Republican===
Jim Ryan was AG for eight years.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:26 am
–MJM surely doesn’t want the Attorney General to be a Republican. Too much power in the office for MJM’s liking.–
The AGs office is pretty weak by design. Are you thinking of the appointed U.S. Attorney? That’s where the power is — full resources of the Justice Department, FBI, IRS.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:31 am
Interesting that they didn’t poll about the impact in a D primary.
Comment by soccermom Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:33 am
===Interesting that they didn’t poll about the impact in a D primary. ===
I’m betting they did. And I may do it myself, just to see.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:35 am
Not only did they probably poll about the impact in a D primary, but they probably polled Daley v. Rutherford and Quinn v. Rutherford, with and without message testing. I find the Madigan numbers all very believable, but it’s notable they didn’t release Daley or Quinn results.
Comment by 60611 Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:40 am
It’s going to take some nuance and a steady hand on the R side to make these attacks without going overboard and coming off as sexist and belittling, and giving her a chance to rally those independents. I don’t think they have it in them to do it.
Comment by Century Club Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:43 am
Hey, Rich, I think Word just gave us a new QOTD! Which Shakespearean character best represents each gubernatorial candidate?
Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:43 am
=== However, Madigan faces a tough battle if she runs for Governor and her father remains Speaker of the House. ===
Been saying this for months.
She also faces additional difficulties in a primary if her father does not recuse himself as chairman of the Democratic party as she challenges a sitting governor.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:56 am
Please do Rich. I didn’t think this would matter in a D primary but I now think I may have been wrong. The last month has really brought this issue into bold relief and I suspect poll numbers taken today will be worse than those taken in April.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 12:08 pm
===He’s darn near invincible if he chooses to run for re-elect.===
I don’t know about that. His vote against allowing the Immigration bill to come to the floor is a disgrace. It’ll hurt him in a general election, but was probably necessary to avoid a primary. He is still walking a tight rope and will be for four more years.
I’d love to see a debate between Moderate Mark and Conservative Kirk.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 12:10 pm
47, you know I agree with you about Kirk generally, and certainly about the immigration vote. But in terms of the next election, the sympathy factor combined with his repeated love-fests with Durbin will insulate him from the kind of venom necessary to dislodge him. If his health holds and he wants to do it, I just don’t see a recipe to defeat.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 12:20 pm
The amazing thing about the Madigan-Madigan “conflict of interest” issue is that it is entirely “massacre by innuendo” without a shred of evidence. I don’t think one can point to anything that either of them has done in public office that could plausibly be construed be designed to help the other. It seems to me that they have functioned completely independently.
Comment by jake Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 1:17 pm
The people who were angered by Kirk’s vote on the immigration bill were predisposed to vote against him in the general anyway. SEIU is airing radio ads blasting Kirk for this vote, but I doubt that they would have endorsed him in any event.
Comment by Esquire Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 1:57 pm
Jake, life ain’t fair.
In this world, perception is reality and all it takes is a “perceived” conflict of interest to turn loose the hounds.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 1:58 pm
*Both* branches? Those judges get no respect.
;o>
Comment by Ken_in_Aurora Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 2:47 pm
Is Madigan showing himself to have a newly thin skin?
I don’t quite get his combative comments. Or is this consistent with his long-term behavior. If so, I just don’t remember it. My recollection is that he usually just ignores controversy instead of responding to it.
Comment by Jim Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 2:49 pm
=== I’m probably wrong again, in trying to read the guy’s intentions. ===
I used to try to figure out what hes doing as well. I learned that its a waste of time. He certainly knows his intentions, but he is going to keep them close to the vest.
Comment by Fred's Mustache Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 4:01 pm
If we have to judge Ms Madigan by the actions of her relatives, then we have to judge this Mr. Daley by the actions of his relatives as well.
So obviously this Daley will rent out state assets to his banking buddies for pennies on what the assets would earn over the life of the lease.
Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 4:48 pm
–So obviously this Daley will rent out state assets to his banking buddies for pennies on what the assets would earn over the life of the lease.–
Only in pursuit of the Springfield 2028 Summer Olympics, just like Rich auctioned off the parking meters and Skyway and squirreled away the TIF slush funds for the highly successful Chicago 2016 Games.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 5:00 pm
Madigan’s side by side running the State, what a nightmare. We will owe 200 billions by then.
Comment by mokenavince Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 5:26 pm
-in pursuit of the Springfield 2028 Summer Olympics-
word, raising the dough for that from our parking meters, etc. could require a top-notch con$ulting team.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 6:37 pm
And if we want to be TOTALLY unfair, how about tying Bil Daley to the police riots ordered at the 1968 Democratic Convention by his grandfather? The possibilities of this game are endless.
Comment by jake Thursday, Jun 20, 13 @ 12:02 am