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Mark Brown thinks Mayor Daley will run for re-election.
A whole bunch of convicted former politicians can tell him that you don’t get a pass when you leave office, not that he wouldn’t have already noticed on his own. Plus, there’s the possibility that the Justice Department might hold a decision to prosecute to a higher standard before indicting an incumbent who has just been duly elected. Plus, it’s easier to fight back when you still have the power to initiate popular new programs — and raise campaign funds.So he’ll run.
What do you think? Will Daley run again, despite the federal investigation?
UPDATE: President Bush’s press conference is going on right now. Bush was just asked about Mayor Daley’s troubles and whether his opinion of the mayor had changed from last year when he called Daley a “great mayor.” Here’s my rush transcript:
I still think he’s a great mayor…This is a well-run city…
The thing I like about Daley is when he tells you something he means it…
I’m proud to call him friend. I’m proud to have shared my 60th birthday with him.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:15 am
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Although he is burned out, Daley is finding out that his supporters do not want him to leave. Investigation or not, he will be reelected. The very idea of Chicago without a Mayor Daley resurrects the incompetent administrations of the 1980s. While not the fault of every mayor, Chicago during the 1980s experienced many setbacks still remembered by voters.
If Daley is talked into running again, he will be reelected.
Think about it; if Stroger can be bedridden and reelected, Daley can be under investigation and reelected.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:26 am
I think that Brown is off on this one. Depending how quickly they get to the 5th floor, it is conceivable that a man that would be in the middle of ‘discussions’ with the feds might have the candidacy question become a legitimate bargaining tool. More precisely,don’t run and we won’t drill you as hard. Who knows? With 50 people, you’ll get 100 theories on this one.
The better question is, if he doesn’t run, who the candidates are. You’ll need your black, latino, old-guard, reformer, and gadfly slots filled in the beginning, and watch them whittle down from there.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:26 am
A less delicate assessment came from a North Side committeeman: “When there is blood in the water, the sharks start feeding.”
He has too. The blood is in the water now. Sharks are out. He has to run to hold off the chaos that breaks out if quit. But it’s a lost cause and there is more blood to flow for sure.
Chicago will be a big loser from it all because the only kind of way it can govern itself is with these dynasties.
I don’t see a H. Washington out there either (But then I didn’t see the real one the last time either.)
Comment by Bill Baar Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:30 am
Chicago residents better hope so.
The period ‘Pax Chicagorum’ fostered by Daley’s benevolent dictatorship has produced a very long trough, where everyone is sharing nicely. This period has been marked by a downtown renaissance: Millenium Park, Navy Pier, Northerly Island, iron fences, etc.
Remove old man Daley from the equation, Chicago is going to regress back into factions fighting over resources, tax dollars, power, and patronage, back like it was in the late 70s and 1980s.
Comment by Petey Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:32 am
He will run and he will win. The people who get out the vote still have jobs. Besides, who will the Chicagoans vote for, Luis Gonzalez? Jesse Jr? Does John Cox live in the city? Perhaps he can put the needs of the nation aside and bow out running for POTUS, and run for Mayor. If Jesse or Luis run, it will be the same crap that there is now, but the streets won’t be clean/snow plowed. If LG wins, this will be an illegal alien safehouse city.
Comment by Wumpus Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:37 am
Petey,
read this from today’s Trib,
But one veteran Democratic official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, believes Daley could have another problem.
He theorized that grass-roots ward political workers who normally would support Daley may not lift a finger for him at election time after revelations that members of “rogue” political groups fostered by the mayor were richly rewarded with city jobs and promotions.
“A big problem is how precinct captains take this, and I am going to tell you there are a lot of committeemen and precinct captains who think these roving armies were inappropriate and an abuse and, worse, a rejection of their role as legitimate players in the system.”
It wasn’t all happy campers at the trough in Chicago politics. And look at pictures of who runs the wards and who were the rogues.
Daley will run because he and the rogues have no choice but Fitz will play everyone off against each other and it’s a big mess coming.
Comment by Bill Baar Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:50 am
Chicago is already a safe haven for illegals, so a Gutierrez election won’t change that much. Daley was penitent in his public remarks from the time Hired Truck broke in early 2004 until late in 2005. Now he’s back to being defiant. That, and all his recent travelling, leads me to believe he is doing all he can to remove focus from the scandals and run in 2007.
The US Attorney’s office moves deliberately so if Daley is indicted it won’t be before the election. I see Daley winning again, but this time with a vote in the upper 50s or low 60s. This will embolden more legitimate candidates to run in 2011, whether or not Daley runs then. The days of Daley getting 80 percent are gone.
Comment by Tom Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:56 am
I co-sign what Wumpus said. Who would be the other candidate that would have appeal to minorities and lakefront liberals fed up with Daley? I don’t know of one.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 10:23 am
I would have said the hispanics could have easily taken the mayor’s office next, except for the bad press HDO created. They have census data on their side.
Yeah, I think a guy like Daley runs until he runs out of road. He’ll go out guns blazing, (metaphorically) thinking that a lifetime of dealing and favors can buy him out of anything.
Hmmm…I gotta go dig out my Paper Lace 45 rpm record…
Comment by Bring back Meigs Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 10:29 am
So far I would still say, yes, clearly Daley runs for reelection. And gets reelected.
It’s really striking the different reactions that Chicagoans and Democrats have to Daley and Blagojevich. Both men are accused of similar transgressions, but it’s going to take much, much more hard stuff to bring down Daley than it would Blago. Daley, at the end of the day, has established a genuine connection with his electorate. People may not approve of all his actions, but they like the guy. Blago does not have the same kind of personal goodwill to fall back upon.
Comment by ZC Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 10:34 am
Daley will run, because it is all that he knows how to do. Whether or not he will win is another matter. He’s certainly the odds on favorite.
First, he must have a credible opponent. Jackson says he is not running. Gutierrez is less than inspiring. There are a number of current officeholders who could run against Daley and win, but whether any of them has the moxie to do it is another matter.
If someone finds the courage to run, I think they have plenty to run on. Corruption can be made personal: juxtapose headlines about underqualified building inspectors with headlines about collapsing porches and the E2 tragedy.
Education is a double-edged sword: yes, Daley took over the schools, but test scores are abyssmal and the black community is on the verge of erupting over the quality gap between schools in Englewood and Lincoln Park.
The economic development has been tremendous, but most Chicago families have not shared in that prosperity, and Daley vehemently opposes requiring the world’s second most profitable company to pay its workers a living wage. At the same time he remains silent about the efforts of Alderman Natarus to squeeze a pay raise for the city council out of tax payers.
It also important to keep in mind that many, many voters were not around or aren’t old enough to remember the 80’s, so the “He may be a crook but he’s OUR crook” argument really doesn’t work.
Finally, there is the property tax issue. Voters are angry, angry, angry about it. Daley has talked about property tax relief and school funding, but it’s fair to say he hasn’t really lifted a finger to fix the problem. It took Daley 3 days to raise taxes to fund Comiskey, 3 days to raise taxes to fund Soldier Field. He’s had decades to address the school funding/property tax issue, and a graph showing how city spending and property taxes have risen over daley’s tenure would be powerful stuff.
One thing is for certain: with the patronage machine under fire, organized labor will play a very important role in the upcoming election, and anyone who hopes to challenge Daley must earn solid support from organized labor.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 10:35 am
ZC - Don’t buy into Conventional Wisdom.
Remember the Tribune poll that found Jesse Jackson, Jr. beating Mayor Daley 40-37. That is not reflective of a deep personal connection with the electorate. George Ryan was a genuinely popular guy at one point too, but you’ll only let your best friend kiss your wife so many times before you can’t ignore it any more. Only time or a good poll will tell whether the voters feel Daley has committed too many transgressions.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 10:44 am
How do you think Sorich and McCarthy felt watching the news last night and seeing the guy they covered for having cake and celebrating at the Presidents birthday party?
Instead of just telling the truth, they made the decision to go to trial to cover for a system that was created by a greedy group of men that will turn their backs on them in a heartbeat.
Today, they must be wondering-what have I done?
Comment by Garp Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 10:49 am
It will be interesting to see what kind of support Sorich & Co. will receive from Daley and his friends behind the scenes. Will their families be taken care of while they’re in prison? Will they land cushy private sector jobs from Daley’s friends upon their release?
Daley owes these guys for playing the good little soldiers. Then again loyalty is a one-way street with Daley.
Comment by Tom Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 11:08 am
Mayor Daley will not run and instead will back………………..Sate Senator Iris Martinez!
She’ll win and will create a renassance for Chicago for the next 20years and she will build on Daley’s Legacy!
Comment by Deep throat Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 11:18 am
Deep Throat
Lay off the dope.
Comment by Obscure FM Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 11:27 am
Here we go again:
Not withstanding the Mayor’s politics, I believe the Presidents visit to Chicago at this time was not only to assist Judy Barr Topinka, but also to you his position to assist the Mayor in thwarting any possible future indictment by the U.S Attorney.
I know that may sound off the deep end but check it out:
The President visits on his birthday, should be be at home with his family? During the dinner with with the Mayor and in newspaper articles and news accounts he speaks states that he came to share his birthday with the Mayor of the City of Chicago and then gives the Mayor raving reviews even though the City Hall trial verdict (what a coincidence)was announced and the headlines in the papers tell it all.
However, the same federal prosecutor and special prosecutor is investigating both the White House and City Hall for improprieties. One of the Presidents aids have been indicted and four of Mayor Daley’s adis have been indicted as well and the investigations of both the White House and City Hall are not over.
Simultaneous, the Vice-President will be called as a witness in the prosecution of the White House investigation and the President has not yet been implicated. Neither has the Mayor in the City Hall investigation.
Yet, the President is still the “boss” of the prosecutor who is investigating both entities.
It appears that the Presidents persistent statement that the Mayor is his friend is an attempt to warn the federal prosecutor to “back off the Mayor, he’s my friend”.
Look at it from this angle. If the feds are investigating whatever entity in the United States, as the President of the United States and the overseer of the U.S Department of Justice, shouldn’t the President be grateful that the prosecutor is investigating corruption and he should not taking visits to cities and towns to cheer on those who may be under investigation by his own federal administration?
Comment by One Man Can Make A Difference Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 11:43 am
Rich,
I thought I saw you at the press conference, but then I realized it was your doppleganger Pearson. Won’t one of you shave the beard to end the confusion…
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 11:49 am
YDD - I agree with you about polling data, and Daley hasn’t had a really credible challenger in a while now - but still, it will take more than one Jackson-Daley hypothetical matchup to convince me the guy truly is vulnerable. I do think that the right African-American candidate with Obama-like crossover-appeal to the liberals should make the Daleyites nervous. But who is this candidate?
The best candidates might be able to take Daley down in 2007, but the gist I am getting is that 2007 will be Daley’s last hurrah. So why bloody yourself to pieces , when an easier race might be had by waiting four years?
Talking polls, the February Tribune poll found that, while 70 percent of those surveyed did not believe Daley’s claim that he was unaware of the corruption in City Hall, 56 percent still said they approved of the job he was doing as Mayor. That’s a 26-point don’t-believe-him-still-approve gap. In any case, a 56 percent approval for a guy who’s been around so many years is impressive. I gotta chalk some of that up to goodwill.
Comment by ZC Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 11:53 am
Wonder why Governor Blagojevich wasn’t invited to the birthday party ?
Comment by Willie Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 11:54 am
yes, it depends on how far it goes and how fast. few people, however, realize the subtle fear many chicagoans have of going back to council wars and the uncertainity during that time period. That is the main reason why Daley gets a lot of support, although few people ever talk about it.
Comment by Minion Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 12:34 pm
Bill Barr -
You say:
It wasn’t all happy campers at the trough in Chicago politics.
I beg to differ: is there any credible opposition to Mayor Daley? Remember the days of ‘Council Wars’? Now *those* were not happy campers.
When “veteran Democratic official, who spoke on condition of anonymity..” are cowering in the shadows in fear of reprisal, that means da mayor has complete control.
The non-happy campers will simply be ignored, or bought off until the are happy.
When I see someone on TV night after night railing on and on about the ‘corruption’ and putting together a serious ward-based, anti-Daley coalition, then I’ll know he is really losing control.
Comment by Petey Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 12:37 pm
One Man!
Pull up! Pull up! You’re going down! You’re getting too close to the flames! AWWWWWWW!!
Too late!
I guess one man can make a difference, but one lunatic can’t!
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 12:46 pm
Sorich has already been taken care of. He has a lucrative job out of state that will continue when he gets out.
Remember the Chicago motto: We take care of our own.
Comment by The G Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 1:19 pm
Hey “The G”
I think Sorich would apprciate that in writing.
Comment by Garp Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 2:24 pm
ARRRRRRRGH,
To the poster who said the census gives Hispanics a shot at the mayoralty………..get some facts to back up your tune.
Hispanics make up around 15% of the potential voters in da great city of Chicago. That is because of citizenship and age related eligibility issues. They are probably over 35% of the general population, but only potential voters count in an election.
Little Louie does not have the votes and Jesse Junior is disliked by a significant part of the black community. Reverend Meeks? Ain’t gonna happen. His right wing social agenda is not going to play in this city. Plus questions about his “love collection” at his church would hurt his credibility. The “love collection” is a special collection his church takes up for him and his wife. Only he and the wife count the money………..hmmmmmm…….no questions there huh.
Face it. Daley is gonna run and win. What is he gonna do………..retire and teach “speech” at the University of Chicago………
ARRRRRRRRGH
Comment by IrishPirate Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 2:40 pm
Vanilla Man, the fire has already started and I use the freedom of speech in the United States Constitution to warn the fire department.
Comment by One Man Can Make A Difference Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 2:57 pm
ZC — Don’t expect another black Obama. Daley has been very thorough in his infiltration of the black community, and most now find themselves dependent on the Daley machine now.
Look for a white liberal with bonafide credentials in the African American community, and who is openly embraced by Obama and/or Jackson. There are plenty of folks who fit that bill.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 3:16 pm
YDD,
Names please…names…
Comment by Bill Baar Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 4:16 pm
YDD–agreed, but if Daley is going to be defeated it will have to be a white liberal with a ton of dough, like a Mike Bloomberg. Given that Hizzoner is already great friends/confidants/etc. with and among Chicago’s wealthy, don’t hold your breath.
Comment by Minion Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 4:18 pm
Bill - Even if I knew that there was someone whose name was being floated around, I’m hardly the kind of person to post their name on a blog so that they can find themselves getting a phone call from the 5th floor.
Minion - Daley started 2002 with $2.5 million. Between then and through the election, he raised $4.6 million and spent $3.3 million, with $3.7 million left on hand.
Four years later, he’s starting 2006 with $2.3 million, which means he has had $1.5 million of negative fundraising over the past four years. Not good. For comparison, in the last half of 2005, he raised only $22,000, compared to $1.1 million in the last half of 2001.
Let’s also not forget that our state ethics laws allow Daley to retire and take with him whatever cash he had on hand July 1, 1999 for personal use. Including possible legal fees, or trips to Ireland. I call it the “Magic Number.” Daley’s Magic Number: $2,593,869.00. Roughly what he started the year with, which means he effectively started at $0.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 4:39 pm
YDD- notwithstanding your fugures, I think everyone would accept that the guy can raise all the money he needs if and when he faces a credible challenge.
Comment by Minion Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 4:43 pm
Minion - What do you base that on? When has he ever faced a credible challenge and raised lots of cash as a result?
I’d suggest just the opposite: Daley’s political power and fundraising ability depend on the perception that he will continue to hold power, not on a well of goodwill, and he’s become dependent on folks who are afraid they will no longer be able to do business with the city or will no longer have a job for his continued re-election.
Every perceived crack in his power, whether it’s the passage of a smoking ordinance, living wage ordinance, or foie gras ordinance over his objections; indictment of his subordinates or political allies; or poll numbers which show him trailing potential challenges; they all weaken his ability to raise money, and it remains to be seen whether he can still put city workers on the streets like he used to.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 5:00 pm
If Daley decided to not run in 2007 his top insiders state that he would support another canididate who believes in the same vision he has for the City and would continue working in Making the city affordable,with great schools and color blind to race and be able to work with everyone in the City, just as he has.
Daley favorites and potential inidivudals to gain his 110% support are,
1. William Daley
2. Rahm Emmanuel
3. State Senator Iris Martinez
4. James Houlihan
5. Ron Huberman
All these 5 men and women would be assured to gain the full support of Daley and his allies and would continue his legacy!!
Comment by Daley's Fab Five Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 6:13 pm
What haveyou been smoking? State Sen. Iris Martinez Won’t be able to run for mayor from “club Fed”. She’s an HDO operative or should I say “co-op”?
Comment by Hey "deep throat' Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 6:15 pm
I think Hispanics would have had a chance electing someone like Manny Flores from the 1st Ward. He could get many votes from the yuppie. progressives and African Americans but I think this whole HDO thing has embarrassed many in the Hispanic community and really has taken the wind out of their sails. I think Pat Quinn would make a great Mayor but I guess if he stays as Lt. Governor when Rod is indicted he will become Governor. I think State Sen Ricky Hendon could be a contender, He knows Chicago politics better than anyone and has had recent victories with candidates he was supporting. Dorothy Brown, Rep John Fritchey as good candidates also.
Comment by Len O'Connor Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 8:51 pm
Maybe we could put Blago, Bush and Daley on the same ticket and get them all defeated at once. Then we could find someone to run who knows how to return this country and this state to greatness and who knows how to pronounce “nuclear”, among other faux pas.
Comment by Disgusted Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 9:38 pm
Not even sure why I’m bothering, but all of this crud in Kass and Dole and everywhere else about the machine still existing is total crap. The Trib did a study of the 38,000 shakman covered employees and found 1200 registrars or precinct workers. Compare that to 40 years ago, when it was like 98%. Sure, those 1200 workers — if all loyal to RMD, which they aren’t — are useful, but really only in protecting against the few remaining powerful organizations (13, 14, 23, 33). And if you think that those four are in the Mayor’s pocket, you smoked too much Vrdolyak weed. Those guys were aligned with 11 when they were faced w/ Washington, but remember they all ran repeatedly against RMD in every contested race he ever ran. THese idiots on the 4th floor did more than they needed to keep things steady — that’s the hubris and they probably deserve what they got. Faking interviews and breaking the rules is stupid — if you don’t like the rules, change them.
I say the mayor runs and no one remotely credible even circulates petitions. Like it or not this city is still really balkanized, and in today’s TV age in politics, it’s damn near impossible to govern such a place w/o #1) a Daley-like record of achievement, or #2) A billion bloomberg-like dollars to blow the other factions out of the media race.
Comment by Sigh Friday, Jul 7, 06 @ 11:40 pm
There is a machine, it’s just a different type of machine. Today’s machine has been centralized under Daley in the form of the HDO, Coalition for Better Government (don’t get why it’s called this), and other pro-Daley organizations. It’s no longer the ward/precinct based machine.
Take a look at the white and black city workers who have joined HDO. Are they doing it to express solidarity with their Hispanic brethren? I don’t think so. They are doing it as joining HDO and working for Daley and his favored candidates is a way to dramatically improve their chances for getting hired or promoted. Welcome to modern-day machine politics.
Comment by Tom Saturday, Jul 8, 06 @ 10:08 am