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Posted by Barton Lorimor (@bartonlorimor)
* One of the major credit rating firms has declared Illinois is no longer in a recession, and has started to recover…
“The housing market is picking up in Chicago,” Cochrane says. “The large service- and finance-based economy in Chicago also seems to be picking a little bit, and hiring is improving.”
Much of the improvement in Illinois’ economy is pegged to Chicagoland, but he says Downstate manufacturers could also soon see an improvement in exports overseas.
* Only the Decatur metropolitan area remains in a recession. Earlier this year, Decatur became the Illinois metro with the highest unemployment rate. It has an unemployment rate of over 13 percent, and one of the area’s larger employers has been looking to move for quite a while. Moody’s analysis says Decatur has affordable housing, but that there has been a slowdown in home sales and the availability of high paying jobs.
Nationally, the “Great Recession” ended in June 2009. Alabama and Wisconsin were the other states taken off of the watch list. Other states, like Delaware, remain…
Delaware remains at risk because of slow growth in the drivers of its economy, including banking, credit cards, pharmaceutical, chemical and business services, he said. Delaware, however, has taken issue with Moody’s assessment. “We believe Delaware’s future is more promising than Moody’s report would indicate,” says state Finance Secretary Tom Cook. He says employment will pick up this year as Bank of America has promised 500 new jobs over the next three years and Capital One has promised to hire 500 employees there by year’s end.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 12:32 pm
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Sales revenue, property sales, and new start-ups/expansion all seem to be ticking up noticeably this year in northern IL. I can’t speak for other regions. We lost a lot of businesses to other states in the past few years, but I haven’t seen that as much this year. Again, I’m speaking regionally.
Comment by Liandro Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 12:48 pm
It’s a sluggish recovery and more like rehab, but it does seem to be on an upward trend.
Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 1:07 pm
===We lost a lot of businesses to other states in the past few years, but I haven’t seen that as much this year. Again, I’m speaking regionally.===
Thanks for speaking regionally. How bout speaking specifically about those businesses leaving the state. Names would be nice. Numbers even better.
Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 1:21 pm
When will the IL fracking revenue start coming on-line? If the predictions hold up, IL could see a nice economic rebound.
For our sake (and Mike Frerech’s sake) I hope the recent legislation is strong enough to protect the environment adequately.
http://www.mikefrerichs.com/index.php/multimedia/video/176-frerichs-passes-fracking-safeguards-out-of-senate
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 1:41 pm
Who is the large employer looking to move from Decatur?
Comment by LincolnLounger Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 1:43 pm
Does that mean the “temporary” income tax hike might go away? Hahahaha…..
Comment by Tequila Mockingbird Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 1:55 pm
=Does that mean the “temporary” income tax hike might go away? Hahahaha=
Nice!
Comment by Downstater Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 1:59 pm
I know that the GOP and Tribune editorial board hang on every word from Moody’s and attribute the state’s economy to Democrats in general and Quinn in particular.
When can we expect the lauditory news releases and editorial?
Comment by Juvenal Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 2:29 pm
PublicServant,
There was a study published in Crain’s Chicago Business around a year after the income tax hike, and it found that because of start-ups, Illinois gained many more jobs in 2011 than it lost to other states.
As far as a mass exodus of wealthy people moving to other states because of tax increases, from what I read it’s mostly if not totally untrue and is just a political scare tactic.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 2:30 pm
Scratch that earlier post. I’ve heard that Ty Fahner and the Civic Committee are taking credit for ending the recession; they claim they’ve made several unofficial calls to Moody’s.
Comment by Juvenal Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 2:36 pm
Not Again! Fahner was misspeechifying again, apparently.
Comment by Juvenal Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 2:37 pm
Juvenal - well played.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 2:39 pm
– We lost a lot of businesses to other states in the past few years, but I haven’t seen that as much this year. Again, I’m speaking regionally.–
Did “the people” you talk to tell you that?
The only region you’re talking about is your tukkus. Step up with some facts, for once.
As far as Moody’s goes…..
…you and the horse you rode in on.
Moody’s, S&P and Fitch are thieves, taking money off your table with government-mandated ratings that are beyond reason or logic.
The WSJ had a story last week about two bond issues backed by the same revenue source: one was a tax-exempt pass-through for a government housing authority; one was a taxable through a private corporation.
The private, taxable bond was rated higher than the tax-exempt government authority, although the coverage was the same revenue source.
That’s not only insane, it is bad faith.
I used to work in public finance before the gangster element took over the rating agencies.
You always knew the bankers were wired politically and dodgy, but the rating agencies were golden — like Arthur Anderson used to be.
Brilliant people, independent analysts, back in the day.
But as anyone who reads the Wall Street Journal or cares to visit their library knows, the rating agencies were the triggermen for the whack on the world economy.
They are the lowest of the low — and unrepentant.
Next time I’m in lower Manhattan at the Iron Horse, you see me coming, you better run.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 3:30 pm
The recession has ended but the depression that began in 2007 is still going strong!!
First off if you think that Illinois economy is going so great take a look at the latest food stamp SNAP caseload report. We, Illinois, are now 14% above last years numbers
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29snapcurrpp.htm
There’s an abundant amount of propaganda that we are creating these jobs. Whelp, lemme tell ya something.
Todays BLS JOLTS data indicates that BLS numbers are a lie. The job turnover data does not jive with the non-farm payroll data and it’s caused the largest adjustment in the BLS job numbers ever.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-10/if-everythings-fixed-why-happening
Nationally we need yet another 2.2 million jobs just to break even with employment in 2007. The unemployment numbers, the game, the illusion, of unemployment falling is created from people dropping out of the workforce. For examp. if you add together disability claims (the people that can’t find a job last resort) since 2007 and SNAP, we’re talking 22 million people!
And lets not even mention that the jobs being created are part-time min-wage.
Many will proclaim if you want a better job than a min-wage job go get yourself an education and the line has become tired and worn out. Guess why? How bout the number of college grads working in min-wage positions up 70%. Half the recent grads unemployed and those that are half of them in positions that don’t require a degree.
WRT: Real estate recovery.
Ha, yeah Zombie Foreclosures. Shhh don’t talk about them. The Fed’s QE tapering as soon as the 10 year treas hit 3% you can say good-bye to the real estate recovery.
Sales tax revenue artificially inflated via new car sales so people have a car to live in. Like the housing bubble sup-prime loans for NINETY-SIX MONTHS are handed out so the WalMart workers can borrow from the future to get to their jobs.
I’m not buying it. We’ve been in a depression since 2007 and the next round of debt is just around the corner.
The so-called jobs are so great that even the latest Fed income tax revenue reports, the Fed DTS statement show that revenue is trending down.
I encourage everyone to research for confirmation of this recovery propaganda. I ain’t seeing it.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 3:31 pm
“You always knew the bankers were wired politically and dodgy, but the rating agencies were golden — like Arthur Anderson used to be.
Brilliant people, independent analysts, back in the day.
But as anyone who reads the Wall Street Journal or cares to visit their library knows, the rating agencies were the triggermen for the whack on the world economy.
They are the lowest of the low — and unrepentant.”
Pretty much agree. Except for two things:
First, I wouldn’t say they are “unrepentant”. They just won’t even acknowledge they had any part of the crisis.
Second, there’s a huge amount of competition going on for the “lowest of the low” - still continuing, as a matter of fact. It’s a little too early to award it outright to the credit rating agencies, but they are certainly holding down a top 3 position.
“Triggermen” - no, not really. Acted more like money launderers and/or counterfeiters.
Comment by Judgment Day Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 3:40 pm
The national economy continues to grow and has grown since 2009
http://www.multpl.com/us-gdp-inflation-adjusted/
However high unemployment continues because the fruits of that growth end up in the hands of a very few.
This economic recovery would have been even stronger but for the austerity policies enacted by the GOP controlled US House and GOP controlled state governments across the nation.
In terms of fiscal policy, Michael Madigan is best categorized as a centrist Republican with IL having the lowest aggregate state/local taxes of any urban state in the nation.
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 3:47 pm
Gee there wouldn’t be an interest in painting an Illinois recovery in progress because Illinois needs to do another bond sale and the interest from bond buyers is not looking good would there?
Oh and look. Manufacturing…blah, blah, blah.
That’s so nice!
Now, how big of a roll does manufacturing play in our service dominated Illinois economy of waitresses and bartenders?
I remember just a few short months ago Quinn boasting about Illinois coal exports creating much needed living wage jobs too. No mention of the drop off of domestic coal usage tho. — that has fallen off a cliff. Nope. Look at those exports baby. Look over here not over there.
And how are those coal jobs coming?
Well, in the latest batch of Illinois Dept of Labor WARN filings, mass layoff notices, what do we find? Why layoffs in the mining industry! How in the world does that happen with the so-called surging of coal exports and B.s. that Quinn boasted about?
Illinois foreclosures - ask this. Are the foreclosure numbers stabilizing because people are recovering or have the banks just stopped processing them for the time being because they have enough write-offs on the books — are unwilling to take on the real estate tax burden — unwilling to deal with Chicago ordinances on upkeep of abandon property and assoc. fines?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 3:50 pm
Yeah don’t you see the finance based recovery… /sarcasm
Bank of America to lay off thousands in mortgage business
Reuters - 21 hours ago
Sept 9 (Reuters) - Layoffs at Bank of America
Corp’s mortgage business will amount to about 2100 positions, a sourcetold Reuters on Monday,
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 3:53 pm
Bill White,
I agree with what you are saying.
Wages need to increase. We have the makings of an austerity economy, and the proof is in the pudding. We have lost hundreds of thousands of public sector jobs, and the union participation rate is at a historical low. Now candidates are entertaining the idea of making Illinois a right-to-work state? I think it’s a terrible idea.
Here are some interesting findings in a Pew poll done earlier this year, on raising the minimum wage. Republicans whose family incomes are under $30,000 overwhelmingly support a minimum wage increase, as do all poll respondents. These are the very people who will be helped by Obamacare. Folks in some states who earn this kind of money may qualify for free (or very inexpensive) health insurance if they’re working, after subsidies, or via Medicaid.
Another interesting finding in the poll is that Republicans who agree with the Tea Party overwhelmingly reject a minimum wage increase, while Republicans who disagree with the Tea Party overwhelmingly support it.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/08/20/sharp-divisions-in-gop-base-on-raising-the-minimum-wage/
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 4:23 pm
–”Triggermen” - no, not really. Acted more like money launderers and/or counterfeiters.–
No, the collapse could not have happened without them.
They created the moral hazard by placing AAA ratings on mbs they did not bother to scrutinize. They sold their good names and they can never get it back.
The created a climate in which the originators had no risk. The private bundlers had no risk. The buyers, playing under the rules, had no choice but to buy this junk because they were rated the same as 30-year T-Bonds.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 4:43 pm
@Anonymous:
You need to cut down on the afternoon coffee. SNAP doesn’t have a direct correlation to unemployment. And you are offering a whole lot of opinion and anecdotes to supposedly make your “point.”
==We’ve been in a depression since 2007 ==
Uh, no we haven’t. We were never in a depression. It may have felt like one to some but that doesn’t make it one.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 5:01 pm
=== SNAP doesn’t have a direct correlation to unemployment ===
Agreed.
However SNAP does have a direct correlation to suppressed wages.
And, increased SNAP benefits would stimulate the economy more effectively than bank bail outs.
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 5:03 pm
The sequester has slowed things down, plus without Chicago the State would be a basket case.
I’m hoping fracking will bring jobs to downstate.
One more thing Decatur is right next to Indiana
so you can save a ton of money opening up there by saving on workers comp. insurance.
Who knows we may move up a notch.
Comment by mokenavince Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 6:12 pm
==They created the moral hazard by placing AAA ratings on mbs they did not bother to scrutinize.==
Bond and MBS insurers knew exactly what they were doing. They simply let the sellers buy a higher rating. Greed.
Anderson reminds me of ATT before it imploded. Anderson was both the marketing consultants telling sales to fully finance every sale to pump up the numbers, and also being the auditors ignoring all the circular debt and telling the accountants to book it as revenue and profit. Man did THAT trigger a lot of early retirement buy outs. Ah, the good old days.
PS- When a government spends a trillion dollars a year they don’t have, or when Illinois spends several hundred million a year they don’t have, or when Illinois has record revenues and still outspends itself? That, by any measure possible, can be many things, but it is NOT austerity.
Comment by DanL60 Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 6:13 pm
Well one has to wonder what economic sabotage Ty Fahner and the Civic Committee will plot next.
Comment by And the horse they rode in on! Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 6:44 pm
Woo hoo! Good economic news to herald which ALL Illinoisans should be happy about. It’s really about time, and it actually felt like in various sectors that we should’ve probably already been taken off the Overall “State still in Recession” list some time ago now…! Now, onto help the DeCAtur area, too!
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 7:50 pm
Mokenavince,
DANVILLE is right next to Indiana. Decatur is smack dab in the middle of the state.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 9:54 pm
Thanks Michelle for the geography lesson.
Comment by mokenavince Tuesday, Sep 10, 13 @ 10:53 pm
Michelle Flaherty- you beat me to it on of Decatur and its proximity to the state border . Location has little to do with my town’s continued downfall. An economy dependent on old school manufacturing, a couple of decades of sometimes violent labor/business relationships, factory closings with empty buildings that become either empty or underutilized all have contributed to our unique problems. Add to that listing Caterpillar going from being a premium place for a high school graduate to make an excellent living switching to outsourcing many of its work and hiring new workers at much lower wages has made it a much less attractive place to work. Their CEO’s continued threats to move more jobs to southern “right to work” states where all the jobs can be sub-standard pay has made working in that huge factory a much less attractive proposition . The downward spiral that is the Decatur has many causes, but fixes have been hard to come by for at least the last 25 years.
Comment by Roadiepig Wednesday, Sep 11, 13 @ 8:34 am
I’ve listed most of them before. I can do it again if anyone’s still paying attention to this thread. Why the knee-jerk spite to things that have obviously happened? And why the personal animus against somebody for simply pointing it out?
There are plenty of things I don’t comment on here because they are not my specialty. This is.
Comment by Liandro Thursday, Sep 12, 13 @ 10:13 am