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I haven’t talked to a single person in the last week outside of the Topinka campaign who believes Judy Baar Topinka can win the governor’s race. Gov. Blagojevich’s boffo fundraising report has only reinforced that notion this week.
Charlie Johnston begs to differ. Johnston, a smart Republican political operator and a friend, writes at Illinoize that he is “a bit astonished”that the “Topinka can’t win” attitude has taken hold among pundits and bloggers.
Charlie begins by recounting the governor’s extremely early and very expensive TV ad campaign and goes from there.
What was really striking about that period was that Blagojevich could not coax his own numbers above 50%. What was also striking about it was that with several million dollars of effort, he only managed to push Topinka into the mid 30s, instead of annihilating her. For six weeks of sustained effort and millions of dollars spent, Blagojevich barely got the equivalent of a field goal - and that’s not a sign of strength.In a one-on-one race, I am not a believer in early television. It is hugely expensive and produces results that are deceptive because they are transient and shallow. In a primary in Illinois, people don’t start paying serious attention until after New Year. In a general election they don’t start paying serious attention until after Labor Day. Horse-race numbers at that point start to mean something.
In a race where the incumbent has a huge war chest that dwarfs the challenger, one of the best tactics for the challenger is to horde their own money until after Labor Day while making every effort to goad the incumbent into spending as much of his own money before then as possible. Hmmm…that’s what Topinka has done thus far. Maybe it was an accident - or maybe it is sound strategy.
He also makes a point that most of us who follow this stuff closely always try to keep in mind.
You don’t need all the money in the world; just enough to clear the threshold that gets your message across. In a gubernatorial general election in this race, the first five million you raise is critical. If, after that, you raise another 50 million, it is not even half as meaningful as that first five - because that’s what gets you past the threshold.
There is one thing missing in all of this, though, and that’s the national Republican collapse. Charlie Cook wrote yesterday that the upcoming November election appears to be shaping up as “a very large tidal wave” for the Democrats. Whether the governor’s problems create a reverse impact here is the ultimate question.
If you knew that Barack Obama’s campaign had the goods on millionaire frontrunner Blair Hull and had already planned how best to use that devastating information would you have changed your mind about his chances three months before the US Senate primary? You didn’t know, of course, because it had to remain secret to be effective.
I really don’t know who will win this race, and I never have. I don’t know what sort of secret bombs each candidate plans to throw, and neither do the rest of us. Topinka’s problems with her right flank could be overcome with the corruption issue, but then again maybe not. There are a billion factors involved.
Anyway, your turn to discuss.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:06 am
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It’s not Judy’s bombs he has to worry about. BWAHAHAHA.
Comment by Patrick F. Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:30 am
“If you knew that Barack Obama’s campaign had the goods on millionaire frontrunner Blair Hull and had already planned how best to use that devastating information would you have changed your mind about his chances three months before the US Senate primary? You didn’t know, of course, because it had to remain secret to be effective.”
Rich,
Are you saying the Obama team was behind the Hull implosion? It was my understanding that the consensus opinion was that Hull simply imploded due to his amaturish handling of his scandal.
Am I misunderstanding your hypothetical example or did I miss something?
– SCAM
Comment by So-Called "Austin Mayor" Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:37 am
“he only managed to push Topinka into the mid 30s, instead of annihilating her.”
Spin. Pure and simple. Since when is the mid-30s a position of strength? It’s a bad spot. Especially for a well-known, long time incumbent.
“making every effort to goad the incumbent into spending as much of his own money”
But he still has a boatload of cash.
“striking about that period was that Blagojevich could not coax his own numbers above 50%.”
How is this striking? When have negative ads ever driven up the numbers of the candidate pulling the trigger?
I’m not one saying Judy can’t win. But anyone who suggests she’s in some sort of planned defensive crouch, ready to spring to victory -at least on purpose- is fooling themselves.
Fact is, she’s well-known, and voters still aren’t clamoring to her - even with a torrent of bad press against Blagojevich. She’s got some troubles.
Comment by BuckTurgidson Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:41 am
SCAM, these things never just happen on their own. Yes, that’s what I’m saying.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:44 am
Judy may have problems, but nowhere near Blago’s problems. Johnson gets many points right. After the first $5 million, the rest of the money can turn out to backfire if the electorate reaches an overload stage on his ads. And don’t discount the value of continued corruption allegations and possible indictments. IF they happen, it will be big for judy.
I think much like the protest tide starting against Toddy Stroger, you’ll see an increased protest vote against Blago after Labor day that could peak in November.
Never underestimate a scorned electorate.
Judy has to hone her
Comment by Reality Check Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:53 am
Rich,
Are you saying the Obama team was behind the Hull implosion Surely not. Just like they had nothing to do with JRyan’s either. Sheer coincidence.
As I said on Illinoize, people need a reason to get out to vote.
Bush has been busy depressing his base, and they don’t much like JBT to start. So do we really think they’ll get out to vote? I sure dont think so. And I doubt a few gestures here and there by Bush and JBT will help.
And, of course, if Bush does get his amnesty, you can imagine a HUGE negative reaction by conservatives.
I personally think Rod B could punch every third voter in the face and still win.
Comment by Pat Collins Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:58 am
Won’t the impact of the anti-Stroger-machine vote in Cook County be significant on the statewide races?
I expect that, in Cook County, it will increase the quantity of Republican voters, drive Independents to vote Republican and dampen the number of Dem votes.
Plus, an awful lot of Dems are not happy with Blago. I know some who will vote for Judy; most probably won’t vote at all.
I’ve pollwatched in machine-run precincts. A lot of those voters don’t actually cast valid ballots. It’s pretty obvious they played the game of showing and submitting a ballot but their ballot was marked in a way to be deliberately invalid.
Exactly who is actively supporting the Governor?
Comment by RoseyB Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:06 am
I believe there was a great fighter in the 70’s known as Danny “Little Red” Lopez. One of the secrets to his success was he liked to let his opponents tire themselves out and when they were spent, to knock them out. There is only one problem to that strategy, at some point it might become too late to fight back. I am hoping that’s the case with JBT but as Blago-supporter, I am not counting her out just yet.
Comment by paddyrollingstone Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:12 am
Get outside of Springfield and Chicago. Ask the common person on the street corner. There is absolutely no support for the governor, down state. The trouble is, people are so discouraged I am afraid that they won’t vote.
Comment by Shelbyville Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:13 am
This whole “Judy can’t win” vibe reminds me some of the “Poshard can’t win” vibe back in 98. Of course Poshard _didn’t_ win - and the early ad spending by Ryan was critical - but it was a lot closer at the finish line than almost anybody predicted at this point in the campaign.
People get mesmerized by early opinion polls. Howard Dean was supposed to be the unstoppable juggernaut in the Democratic presidential primary. In three words, Charlie Is Right.
This ain’t over yet.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:15 am
We need to stop pretending that every citizen of Illinois follows this as much as we do. Judy needs to maintain where she is until Labor day. The two weeks after Labor day are the most critical to the campaign. We’ll see what happens… RoseyB, the same thing goes in Cook County. Todd Stroger will win. After Labor day, when the masses educate themselves on Tony Peraica, whom I really like and agree with on most issues, they will punch the ticket for Stroger. Believe me, some conservative cracker ain’t winnin’ in Cook County…
Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:30 am
The whole money thing is overblown. Would you be shocked to discover that pimps drive nice cars and wear jewelry? We have an incumbant we know has been raking in the dough since day one and has cut deals to get it. So, how could we be surprised at the size of his stash as though it is some kind of indicator of his political popularity? C’Mon, even kids know why hookers have cash!
It appears that some lazy reporters need to come up with this story every campaign season. This is not a clear indicator of anything if you study real election results. These stories are hack crap from lazy reporters meeting a deadline.
Blagojevich has had no primary opponent, he has not had Topinka spending a dime on TV, so there are folks out there that think there will simply be no election? The only thing that has been driving Blagojevich’s numbers down has been Blagojevich. What do you think will happen when the campaign starts?
It is August. Topinka doesn’t have much financial ammunition, and what she has of it will be used. There will be a lethal barrage starting next month, if they have enough dough to even pay for two months worth of publicity. But there will be a barrage, nonetheless.
Blagojevich’s battleship is made of nothing but money, and paper might float, but it is easily blown away.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:32 am
What’s striking is that neither Blagojevich or Topinka have really cleared the table yet.
Johnston is right: despite all his spending, Blagojevich can’t clear 50% in a solidly Democratic state.
Buck Turgidson is also right: since when is a poll result in the mid-30s at the beginning of August a position of strength?
The missing factor here is whether Topinka will actually run a solid campaign. Based on everything we’ve seen so far, it seems she can’t or won’t. (I’m not talking about spending on TV; she doesn’t even take advantage of free media effectively.)
Unless Topinka starts showing some life in her campaign — and soon — many voters (including myself) will end voting for the devil we know, wearing a clothes pin on our noses to keep out the stench.
Comment by the Other Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:42 am
paddyrollingstone, there was another a little-known boxer who employed this strategy. He called it rope-a-dope and his name was Muhammad Ali. You might have heard of him.
And I’d be willing to bet most boxing coaches would tell you it’s a bad strategy in boxing. And it’s a bad strategy in politics too. When you allow your opponent to control any medium unabated -especially tv- you’re asking for trouble.
As far as the man on the street focus groups you’ve all conducted, I’d simply like to remind you that the predictive dialers pollsters use offer a slightly better method of gauging voters’ moods then asking what your friends think.
Vanilla, I have no idea what pimps have to do with politics, but kudos for using colorful imagery in your non sequitur.
There are two things people seem to be forgetting. 1) Of course Blagojevich has some troubles. This isn’t a secret. That’s WHY he was on tv. and 2) Topinka may well be waiting for Labor Day, after which she will unleash a barrage of tv - but are you forgetting something…so will Blagojevich.
The race should be close - but arguing that lackluster fundraising, flat campaigning and failing to respond to being whacked on TV is part of some grand scheme, and that Topinka isn’t worse off for it is delusional. If you’re a Topinka supporter, you should be demanding she get in the game - not defending these wayward strategies.
Comment by BuckTurgidson Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:51 am
I’ll put it less colorfully: Blagojevich has cash because he did whatever he could to get it. Throughout his term as governor, he has raised over $2000 an hour for his campaign fund. Imagine if he spent that much time doing his job?
So now we are supposed to be surprised that he has all this money? Like this is news? We all know how he got it and it isn’t a pretty picture. Furthermore, this is the same guy that proposes campaign reform at the very moment he is doing what he claims shouldn’t be done. His excuse is that since his reforms aren’t in place, he’ll continue giving it to us in our shorts.
So my pimp analogy might be colorful in it’s own right, but it is also applicable to any governor who pimps himself out for $2000 an hour, rakes in the dough, and parades his war chest in front of a lazy media that still follows the old adage that money buys elections.
So, it is not a non sequitur, or any other latin pharase you can come up with.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 10:04 am
Blago certainly has huge issues. However, he has done more for contraception rights, health care, research and (see todays article in the Trib on power plant emissions) the environment than anyone in recent history. I can’t name a single thing Topinka has done. I may not like Blago but I am certianly voting for him.
Comment by Way Northsider Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 10:07 am
In this race, it’s important to step back and remember how Rod won. He rode an enormous anti-corruption wave against George Ryan to beat another guy (fortunately for Rod) named Ryan.
He won by 7%, that’s a swing of only 4% against him that loses the whole thing. There are a number of ways one could surmise he’s lost much more than that 4% - first being the 30% of his primary that voted for a guy no one had ever heard of simply because he wasn’t the governor.
The Gov. is now on the OTHER side of a potential anti-corruption wave, AND the machine in Chicago that was so helpful to him four years ago has to be very careful what they do while their under teh FBI’s magnifying glass.
4%.
The Gov. has also lost a significant source of votes and ground troops in AFSCME that he enjoyed last time.
JBT does need to raise sufficient money to get her message to voters after Labor Day, but she doesn’t have to keep up with the Governor. Anyone in “the business” knows you have a certain level of exposure you need, and that costs a fairly set dollar amount. At that point, regardless of how much MORE your opponent may be spending, you can still permeate it all with a good message.
The Gov. also did well downstate last time, a constituency that most outside of Chicago see him losing BADLY this time around.
Lots of factors, but I agree with the point Charlie is making. It’s far from over, and while Republicans would prefer to be ahead in fundraising and the polls, this governor by his fiscal track record and ethics record alone - regardless how much he spends - has to leave this in the hands of the voters.
It only takes a loss of 4% of them, and he’s toast. By all of the polling that’s been done, it looks to me like he’s already lost at least 10% - maybe even 15% of those. Can he get ‘em back? We’ll see.
Comment by 4% is the key Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 10:19 am
I know this is off topic, but Obama didn’t need to Hull to self destruct in order to win, he just needed to get his handsome face on TV to tell his story…
Comment by Obama 4 Life Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 10:31 am
Way Northsider
“Contraception rights”? I didn’t know that was an issue. And how would he fund the condom police to protect them? Or is this the new buzzword on the other side of the coin of reproductive rights?
“Health care?” When you don’t fund medicaid payments or his ballyhooed All Kids?
“Research?”
Comment by Truthful James Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 10:33 am
I live in Southern Illinois and I have talked with several Republicans and Independents from this area. The bigest problem Topinka has is with conservative Republicans they say they will not vote for her because of her stand on social issues.
The mood of the Independent voters at, this point, seems to be driven by what is going on in the Nation and that, like Cook says, is not good for Republicans.
Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 10:56 am
Topinka’s big problem with independants is she has no plan. No plan for anything, other than “I’m not Rod”.
Rod has at least incumbent interia behind him. Also expect him to call in the chips for all the special interest groups he’s done things for.
Topinka should have spent the summer:
1) rolling out her plans, so the media is familiar with them when she goes on the air.
2) making up to conservatives.
Not much of either has been done, that I can see.
Comment by Pat Collins Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 11:08 am
Cook is probably right on his main points, but the purpose of Blago barrage is as much to dry up Judy’s fundraising as it is to define her early, and it appears so far that he’s succeeded.
Comment by Duffer Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 11:31 am
I was talking with a local Kane R worker last night.. he thinks she’ll lose because she ramples on and on…
I think that 17% shown going to third parties will drop as we get closer to election…. then it will be her’s to lose if she can’t get a clear message going.
Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 11:56 am
Well, maybe Blago will become overconfident and slack off. Bet he won’t slack off with the bread and circuses (paid for by us) though.
I would like her to win, if only to slow down Sell Illinois under the Dems, but, and I hate to keep bringing this up, I think her campaign really is not ready for the challenge of a gubernatorial race. And since she is, in effect, the CEO of her campaign, she bears final responsibility. Something isn’t working.
I also hate to keep bringing up the Jack Ryan campaign, but again, she needs to find some of those folks and hire them, if they haven’t already gone over to the Dems, who probably pay better at this point. After I volunteered for Jack Ryan, I got almost daily epmails offering opportunities to volunteer, giving updates, and so on. So far, I’ve gotten one or two e-mails for the Topinka campaign, over a much longer period of time.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 12:18 pm
I’ve read a lot of Johnston’s blatherings, and it seems to me 90% of what the man has to say is focused on currying favor with potential clients. He’s a political hack out to stroke the egos of those who are in, or may someday be in, a position to send a little $$$ his way.
Comment by Veritas Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 12:18 pm
(618) Democrat,
I see the same thing. My Repub friends do not like JBT because of her social stands. Of course, they dont like Rod either. My independent friends fell like both choices are bad. I think many people will stay home or skip this race when voting. In my area, there is only 1 contested race locally and the state sen and rep are unopposed. Not exactly a reaon for many to get out and vote.
Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 12:40 pm
I haven’t met a single republican in Central Illinois excited about Judy’s candidacy. The base is sitting this one out.
Comment by Veritas Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 12:46 pm
Southern Illinois Democrat: Your right to say that the Conservative Repulicans down here won’t vote for the Governor, but they never will vote for a Democrat. This election they won’t vote for the Republican either, that is Topinka’s biggest problem as I see it.
Veritas: Your 100% right on your last two postings.
Buck said it earlier and some other posters have spoke to it, you don’t run negitive ads to bring your own approval rating up, anyone who knows anything about politics knows that.
Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 12:59 pm
Truthful James,
I think what Way Northsider was referring to by contraceptive rights is the right to go to any pharmacy that sells contraceptives and get a script for same filled without being hassled, preached at, delayed or otherwise inconvenienced by an over-bearing, moralistic jerk.
That’s probably the biggest reason I will vote for Blago this year. Well, the other is I promised never to vote for another GOPer in 2000 and so far I’m good on my promise (though I did have to vote write-in to avoid voting for Lip II.)
Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 1:20 pm
So, if the GOP can’t vote for Topinka because of social issues, then can they vote for pro-choice Radogno? Can they vote for a Pankau that nobody knows how she stands (to my knowledge)? How does the shill of an AG candidate, Stu boy, feel about social issues? But who else is there… Dan Rutherford of course. There is a staunch social conservative… now I will quote Rich Miller’s article from April 13… “As expected, incumbent Jesse White has a huge lead over challenger Dan Rutherford in the race for secretary of state. According to Glengariff, a whopping 59 percent of registered voters prefer White, compared with just 28 percent for Rutherford.” Tomorrow’s headline: “Social Conservatives Stand Firm in Throwing Elections”
Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 1:28 pm
Lovie,
Social Conservatives refuse to vote for a candidate with whom they do not agree. It doesn’t matter if that candidate is nominally of the same party. A social conservative is not a partisan voter, he/she is a person who casts their ballot only for those who share the same convictions.
Comment by Veritas Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 1:38 pm
Bill, that’s some great insight your Kane R gave you…what a joke.
Comment by Rob Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 2:19 pm
Truthful James - Cermak_rd defines contraceptive rights exactly as I did. Research is support for stem cell research. Health care is greatly expanding kid care, care for veterans and so on.
Comment by Way Northsider Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 2:54 pm
What is striking is how the well-positioned Dems in Madison/St. Clair talk so negatively about the governor they helped nominate. Remember that Paul Vallas would be the guv today had not the MetroEast Dems pulled Rod’s virile testicles out of the fire in the ‘02 primary.
As to the poll numbers, Jim Edgar buried Dawn Clark Netsch with his summer tv ads. Buried her so far she was never able to recover. No one can say Judy is in a position of strength. At best, she’s an average candidate for the GOP. But the fact that Rod’s millions in tv ads have not created a 25-or-30 percent separation in the polls between himself and JBT is indicative of his structural weakness.
Comment by illrino Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 3:06 pm
JBT’s campaign reminds me of Bob Dole ‘96. Lots of similarities: it’s her turn, weak primary field, vulnerable Democrat who is a great campaigner.
Great quote VanillaMan “Would you be shocked to discover that pimps drive nice cars and wear jewelry? ” and Pat Collins is right too. She’s very uninspiring. Even in a normal year it takes a somewhat inspiring candidate to be a Republican and win statewide here. This is not a normal year, the GOP is going to get killed.
Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 3:34 pm
Remember that Paul Vallas would be the guv today had not the MetroEast Dems pulled Rod’s virile testicles out of the fire in the ‘02 primary.
I thought a Quad City Dem did that, but your point is very well made. Downstaters were the first ones to go under the bus.
First, Poshard, then Vallas. UGH
Comment by Pat Collins Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 3:50 pm
Is Charlie making “the” case or “a” case? Big difference.
Comment by Rob Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 3:52 pm
GovPutz’s Press Release governing may just work if you take Way Northsider as an example (no offense Way Northsider). Voters see these pie in the sky programs and actions flashed on the news and think Blago is wonderful for helping the unfortunate. They never bother to get past the sizzle and look for the steak, or what it may cost the state in new debt. They just see a wonderful man with wonderful programs. OY!
Comment by Buck Flagojevich Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 3:56 pm
The GOP already has lost. They did in the primary! The party did what it had to do to stop an outsider from taking over. Blago will never get away from the corruption charge in 2 years this will all start over again and a rebuilt GOP will be there. The Democratic party still has to go through the rebuilding the GOP went through. If you dems think otherwise good luck
Comment by RAI Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 4:03 pm
Let’s be honest here…for those of us who follow politics, it seems clear that Rod is in trouble…but to Joe Public, they don’t care, they see programs like All Kids and will vote for Rod.
Comment by Joe Public Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 4:15 pm
Let’s see, this is the same Charlie Johnson that helped Andrea Zinga to a 65,000 vote loss in 2004 - to a man that could not utter a sentance that could be heard, or if heard, made any sense?
The Republican Party appears to have hung JBT out to dry with little financial support and the only thing that has the potential to give her any hope is if Blago winds up in jail.
Comment by zinged again Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 4:23 pm
These are things I think are true of this election.
Many Republicans realy dislike JBT.
Many Democrats really dislike Blago.
JBT could possibly bring most of her Repubs back home-Rod’s lost his dems.
Most voters are so sick of the National Republican Party that they would have a hard time electing local repubs, however, more corruption scandals and more anti-semetic actions and we could be the only state in the union electing Republicans for governor and county board while carrying every democratic congressman to victory.
Comment by Garp Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 4:24 pm
Well, there you have it.
It’s obvious that the people Miller talks to, outside of the Topinka campaign, don’t know anything about Illinois politicks. If her campaign people say she is going to win, it must be true. And Charlie, hell, he’s the Karl Rove of Illinois politicks. A brilliant writer, he is.
I don’t understand why Rich would even question other people about politicks; he has all of the experts posting here.
Rod lost his base…you obviously don’t pay attention.
Judy’s base will return…you obviously need to visit some Illinois right-wing blogs.
Comment by B Hicks Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 4:34 pm
Assuming Blagojevich doesn’t get some very bad news (like indictments of his inner circle) JBT can still win. However, she’s got a difficult needle to thread.
If Rich Whitney (Green) gets enough visibility that pulls liberals, but not so much visibility he pulls reformers from across the political spectrum then JBT can win with 47% of the vote.
But she doesn’t control her own destiny. Patrick Fitzgerald and Rich Whitney control her destiny.
For those of you trying to make this sound easy for JBT, I just don’t see it. Bush and the national GOP have polarized politics in a way that means it’s much harder for Republicans like JBT to pick-off Dem defectors. The scorched-earth politics of Bush/Cheney/Rove have consequences at the state level.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 4:55 pm
A lot of good comments here. I’m particularly glad to see my fan club back in action. I’ve missed all of you and your snarky remarks. (I don’t know that snarky is a real word, but I really like it). I’ve long told candidates who worry about the nasty things people say about them that when everybody talks nice about you it means you’re either dead or don’t count anymore. I’m not dead and I can see from the comments here that I still count. Thanks guys. Go GOP!
Comment by Charlie Johnston Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 5:06 pm
B-Hicks
I believe some of your comments were referring to my post. I never said Rod lost his base but I do believe the democratics he lost-like the 30% who voted for Eisendrath are not coming back. Also, I do listen to Repubs and yes they are still mad at JBT, especially for Keyes fiasco and other positions she has, but I still think she could bring most back if she plays her cards right. Blago can’t get back the Eisendrath 30%.
Comment by Garp Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 5:12 pm
Garp, do you believe Eisendrath voters are going to support the Bush endorsed candidate? The Green candidate?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 5:50 pm
They are not going to the Green candidate unless he mounts a campaign. Right now they are going to JBT because they believe Blago is a crook and want him out. She is a Bush supporter but liberal enough on key issues to make her palpable. If the Green guy could get the word out that he is not a Larouchie or some off the reservation pol he would get many protest votes from all sides.
Comment by Garp Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 5:57 pm
To WayNorthsider: There were two letters to the editor in two separate papers this week about AllKids. Both writers were refused coverage for their children, one because the doctor wouldn’t take them as a patient because he wouldn’t take AllKids and the other writer didn’t realize that you had to be without health insurance on your children FOR A YEAR before you can qualify for KidCare. And the reason she didn’t know - BECAUSE THEY DON’T STRESS THIS IN THE ALLKIDS INFO. Take it from a state worker, there is no money for AllKids, the feds haven’t signed off on it yet and in fact there is precious little money for any of these so-called initiatives. It’s all smoke and mirrors, so don’t trust that man behind the curtain - of hair.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 6:26 pm
I heard that Rod isn’t worried about indictments before the election anymore. He believes that Pat Fitzgerald will be too busy coaching football at Northwestern this fall to be focusing on Rod’s little errors in judgement.
Comment by Buck Flagojevich Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 7:19 pm
Anonymous - Is it true a woman has a right to get her prescription for contraceptives filled at the pharmacy counter in the drug store she visits? I believe the answer is yes. I am sure there is plenty of fine print. But health insurance after a year of not having any is a whole lot better than no health insurance for ever. I cannot see how voting for a Republican who has no interest in these topics is going to help the issues I care about. I am not naive. However, I at least have SOME values in common with Blago, none with a party that put up Keyes (although I am aware JBT was against that choice).
Comment by Way Northsider Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:18 pm
Yes, we are mad at JBT for keyes and other things but we are madder at Blago as is the base of the Dems for helping him in the last election and then having him dump all over them.
Comment by anon Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 8:27 pm
Okay, Garp, here’s the world according to Bobby Hicks:
Judy could crawl on her knees, admit that she, or her Republican advisors, orchestrated her primary win by running Bill Brady as a spoiler, beg for forgiveness, and promise to never take part in a Gay Pride parade again; they still wouldn’t support her.
It’s simple, if Jim O would have won, the corruption card would be HUGE. Rod’s 13 million would be trumped by Jim O’s 20 million. The issues go on, and on, and on.
She will never be forgiven.
I’ve said it several times. If it would have been anyone but Judy; I’d be more worried.
She’s toast!
Comment by B Hicks Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:01 pm
Way Northsider,
Did you know that George Ryan invested in state-paid healthcare coverage for the elderly and disabled by significantly more than has Blagojevich with his AllKids plan. Not even close. Did it without much fanfare. Also did it while paying bills on time. So spare us the “shared values” line.
That’s the problem when the uninformed only hear campaign ads.
Comment by Check the numbers Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:25 pm
I’m always surprised at people’s lack of knowlege or lack of ability to look at something honestly.
I agree that Governor Blagojevich has made efforts in some human services areas that are very important to people, such as healthcare. The verdict isn’t in yet on how some of those iniatives are going to work, but good for him for trying.
But to stretch that into a “Republicans have no interests in those areas” is being more than just disingenous. KidCare started under a Republican Governor. KidCare was greatly expanded by a Republican Governor. FamilyCare was started by a Republican Governor. Subsidized day care was greatly expanded by a Republican Governor, using money freed up by welfare reforms in Illinois. It was Republican Governors who poured a hundred million dollars annually into early intervention programs to compensate for the measly federal share that was coming from Washington (under a Democrat President, by the way). It was Republican Governors who stepped in with millions of dollars to save inner city hospital such as Mt Sinai and Loretto, as they were being threatened by OSHA (under a Democrat President by the way).
It was a Republican Governor who agreed to change the threshold for eligibility for medicaid for groups of disabled people, from 33% of the poverty level to 100%, an effort by the way championed by an extremely tenacious Republican state senator, Chris Radogno.
We may spend a little more time than others in looking for unintended consequences and in looking at exactly what programs are going to cost and how they are going to be paid for, but to say, with a broad brush statement, that Republicans are insensitive to human services issues is just flat wrong or dishonest.
Comment by steve schnorf Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:29 pm
As for the very conservative Republicans who continue to try to blame Treasure Topinka for the Keyes debacle, in psychology the applicable term is probably “transference”. In more plain language, to paraphrase the great Pogo, “you have failed to identify the enemy, it is you”.
Comment by steve schnorf Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:35 pm
Steve,
You omitted the SeniorCare program, which was a huge expansion of the low-income CircuitBreaker prescription drug program for seniors. I too am put off by the generalizations from the uninformed.
Comment by Check the numbers Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 9:41 pm
Steve S - Fair enough. I have a hard time distinguishing some of these nuances when “pro-life” Republicans are virulently anti-choice for pregnant women but pro-war, anti-choice for pregnant women but believe stem cell research takes lives regardless of the innumerable patients and their families waiting for some medical hope……my interests are national politics more than state and perhaps JBT is out of step with her party, being pro-choice and so on and certainly I am not well informed about the details of Illinois politics but I still can’t see voting for anyone in the same party as George Bush. Other commenters have said the national backlash will hurt Republican candidates here and I am sure that is true. Personally, I am not disillusioned with the Republican party because I was never “illusioned” with them in the first place. I always vote and I can’t see any way I could vote for Topinka. I am sure other Dems who dislike Blago will choose to stay home but I will be at the polls, I will hold my nose and I will vote for him.
Comment by Way Northsider Wednesday, Aug 2, 06 @ 11:18 pm
Why do people continue to blame Topinka, instead of Syverson and Rauschenberger, for Keyes?
Comment by T.J. Thursday, Aug 3, 06 @ 5:55 am
It’s going to be a complete wash-out for IL Repubs in November. Topinka’s selfish and destructive behavior the past few years will be one of the major causes.
The chickens are coming home to roost.
Charlie really should get back to running another bad campaign for Zinga.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 3, 06 @ 8:49 am
Nice post Charlie, “I still count” - is this comment filled with just a little bit of ego?
Charlie, from what I understand, you never counted and that comment solidified every bad thing that I had ever heard about you (weighed against not one good thing that I ever heard about you).
Comment by zinged again Thursday, Aug 3, 06 @ 9:52 am
If, in fact, the Repubs have a history of expanding health care programs for the poor, why can’t they take the plunge and come out for universal health care for Illinois via a public-private partnership. If we can afford 4 million for some silly ball park, among hundreds of millions of dollars of other pork projects, we can afford to make the changes in state financial priorities necessary to ensure health insurance for all Illinoisians via guaranteed issue (everybody can get resaonably priced health insurance regardless of age, income and/or preexisting conditions) and other policies already existing in some Eastern states which are no wealthier than Illinois.
Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Aug 3, 06 @ 9:53 am
Charlie is right. Wags always need an opinion to sound important, so many are taking the cheap shot at Topinka. But Topinka has millions more than Jim Ryan did at a comparable time. She shows prospects of getting enough for a TV ad program. Blago’s approval numbers leave him vulnerable to a rapid shift to Topinka.
The Conservatives that “sit this one out,” or worse, actively support a Blago victory by attacking Topinka, will gain nothing, yet still pay a steep political price nonetheless.
Comment by Bubs Thursday, Aug 3, 06 @ 9:54 pm
All of this wisdom and insight is truly inspirational but despite all the insights contained herein, this one fact remains: The deficit in this state places Illinois 50th out of 50 states. 17+ billion in the hole, and by Blagoevich’s own admission, via campaign commercial, says he was left with a 5 billion dollar deficit. Now what professional help can you Blago supporters give us to help us miss the obvious? Blago wins. Illinois loses. Jim O. and any other hopeful waiting for 2010 won’t have anything left to govern by then.
Those of you who need a “beyond a reasonable doubt” conviction before you feel justified voting for the best interest of your state should have your heads examined. That’s pretty tough to do though when it’s buried in the sand.
Speaking of abandoning your state, who can even support Jim O. when his county coordinators are actively opposing JBT and they hope Blago wins so his road to Governor will be easier in 2010. Additionally, it’s fine with him if the conservatives sit this one out to the detriment of the state he professes to love so much. Then he shows up as our knight in shining armor?Please!!!
Comment by Sick&Tired Sunday, Aug 6, 06 @ 12:38 am