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UPDATE 2: Sabato has moved the Illinois governor’s race from “leans Democratic” to “Possible R Governor pick-up.”
UPDATE: I’ve taken the subscriber-only requirement off this item because Rasmussen Reports has now posted its results online. I’ve put additional Rasmussen analysis below this original blog post.
Rasmussen Reports has a new poll on the governor’s race. It’s still behind the subscription firewall, but I’m told the numbers are 45-37 Blagojevich/Topinka. That’s a slight improvement for Topinka from last month’s polling and zero improvement for Blagojevich.
Date… Blag. Topinka
Aug 7… 45% 37%
Jul 6….. 45% 34%
Apr 18… 38% 44%
Mar 27… 41% 43%
Feb 22… 42% 36%
Jan 25… 37% 48%
You can find some earlier poll coverage here and here.
———————————————————————————-
From Rasmussen:
The power of incumbency is not necessarily paving an easy road to re-election for Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich. The most recent Rasmussen Reports election survey of 500 likely voters in Illinois shows the governor leading State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka 45% to 37% (see crosstabs). That’s little changed from his lead of 45% to 34% in last month’s poll.Blagojevich’s lukewarm numbers have remained largely unchanged since July’s survey. Just 48% of Illinois voters have a favorable opinion of the Governor, including just 12% with a “very†favorable opinion. Twice as many, 25%, hold a “very†unfavorable opinion of the incumbent.
Normally, such results would alarm any Governor. However, Blagojovich is blessed with a challenger whose unpopularity matches his own. Only 8% of those surveyed say they have a “very†favorable opinion of Topinka while 24% report a “very†unfavorable view of the candidate. Overall, 43% of Illinois voters have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Topinka. […]
Taking a look at the issues of greatest importance to Illinois’ voters, the economy (37%), the war in Iraq (19%) and national security (14%) are the top three responses.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 2:20 pm
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Not surprised to see Topinka’s numbers starting to rise — I think the Blagojevich ads are starting to have a declining margin of utility.
However, these poll results are pretty useless unless Rasmussen is going to start including Rich Whitney. The guy is going to be on the ballot, and while most people assume he’ll take votes away from Blagojevich, he might actually pick up Democrats that were leaving Blagojevich anyway and take them away from Topinka.
Without Whitney, these results are meaningless.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 11:39 am
Blagojevich has been off tv for over a month so please tell me how his ads are just now starting to have the reverse effect… She is still down and does not have the resources to win this campaign. As a Blagojevich supporter I still feel good!
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 11:58 am
I hear internal Blagojevich polls have him up 16 at about 47-31.
Comment by HANKSTER Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 11:59 am
Hankster, that Blagojevich internal poll is probably outdated by now. I wrote about it in my Southtown column last month.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 12:06 pm
Rich, could be but I still hear those are about the same numbers. Interestingly he was polling very well in DuPage which, if true, is a real bad sign for Topinka.
Whatever the case, he is not over 50% in either poll which obviously is usually a bad sign but she is so low that it might be ok.
Comment by HANKSTER Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 12:22 pm
as much as I hate to agree with YDD, she has a good point point - plenty of Dems who don’t like Blago may be inclined to vote for a Green over a Republican
Comment by a non Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 1:52 pm
As I was flapping through Central Illinois today I noticed Peoria radio has dumped Rush when the Cards are playing in the day time. Very good move and a sign the right wing hate speec has worn itself out.
Meanwhile despite Judy Bore’s phantom plans and whining about debate she is still losing.
and another month has gone by
Tic Toc
Comment by Reddbyrd Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 2:31 pm
I read that Whitney will only be allowed to debate if Southern Illinois if he reaches a certain number in the polls. That’s a blatantly ridiculous requirement if no polls are going to include him, as they should.
Comment by SangoDem Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 2:49 pm
Judy’s favorables will begin to rise when she goes on the air, and when debates occur, as the voters have thusfar seen only a one-sided presentation on TV ads, where most of them get their info. (sigh)
Blago’s bigest lead is behind him. The challenge is whether Judy and her campaign staff can make this happen. An open question . . .
Comment by Bubs Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 2:58 pm
Any chance that Rasmussen might lean a little Republican? Maybe just a bit?
It’s probably more like, Judy-34, Rod-47.
Just my humble opinion.
Comment by B Hicks Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:04 pm
Um, B, why would you say that? Rasmussen and SurveyUSA both had the same results last month. Are both skewed Repub?
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:06 pm
Judy can’t be too displeased. She has had no commercials and is down by that little with it starting to rise? I am sure Rod has the money to sandwhich her commericals with two of his, so I am not sure how much they will hel whenever she decides to advertise.
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:11 pm
Blago still leads and the clock keeps ticking on JBT. She had better start performing better, and soon, or this will be over. If ads will help her, then she needs to put some on the air. If improved poll numbers will bring in more money then she should at least make an attempt to improve them. Waiting until Sept./Oct. may be too late…but thats fine with me.
Comment by Southern Ilinois Democrat Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:18 pm
Latest Poll Results Show:
No one really likes the incumbant.
No one really likes the challenger.
I don’t see how this can be good for Topinka. On election day folks will be asking themselves, why should I trade one bum for another.
Comment by Veritas Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:21 pm
I think these Rasumessen numbers are very good for the Governor at this point; he has been through hell and a handbasket for the last several months (much self-inflicted I have to say), but nonetheless, he is still holding firm. I think he needs to release 2 new “quick” campaign ads that put a little damper on Ms. Topinka, like how she supports President Bush and thinks he is doing a good job, just to keep her negatives up (something to that effect) and 1 positive ad that talks about him fighting for the average “Joe.” In additon, he should buy a small ad campaign on radio. A lot of old folks listen to the morning news on the radio when they get up. There is only about 11 or so weeks left before election day. I think a quick ad buy could put the nail in Ms. Topinka’s political coffin. Running attack ads closer to election day makes people mad and tuned out. Strike now!
Comment by SilverBackDemocrat Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:24 pm
These are good numbers for the Governor. The TV ads about Topinka have been off the air for a month now and her negatives are still high showing that the ads were very effective.
I still think her saying that she would raise our Income taxes has alot to do with her polling so low. I don’t think she can change that because the hard working people of Illinois want and need to keep their hard earned money and when they go to the polls they won’t vote for someone who wants to raise their taxes.
Comment by (618) Democrat Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:36 pm
How does government finances not rate a top 3 issue?
Comment by Crockett Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:48 pm
was she really up that much in Jan and April? if so, that seems to mean each has soft support and that we can’t say much about Nov in August.
corvax, sad democrat reading the glowing statement of support of Paul Vallas from U.S. Congressman Chaka Fattah as PV’s contract in Philly comes up for extension
Comment by corvax Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:54 pm
Government finance may play into the “economy” a bit Crockett, although I suspect most people are concerned about their own personal economy primarily.
These results look bad for Rod, slightly better than poor for Judy and awful for Illinois. Bring on the debates, lets get some real meat into this race.
Comment by doubtful Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:54 pm
Because the only “government finance” many Illinois voters care about is a check TO them FROM the government.
As long as the checks keep coming, let Rome burn.
Comment by Bubs Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:55 pm
I would agree with YDDs first comment. I would also agree with SilverBackDemocrat that these numbers are rather good for Blagojevich. He is an unpopular incumbent with an 8 point advantage. I bet Rick Santorum would be extatic with those kind of numbers for an unpopular incumbent. I am still not concerned, as a Topinka supporter, because there is still more than 2 1/2 months until the election. When it is mid-October and her numbers are what they are now, I will be concerned. I think Blagojevich is ripe for reelection… but at the same time, he is still vulnerable. Blagojevich’s negatives are out there and those aren’t going to change without a lot of commercials… a lot of commercials… probably more than he can afford to buy. Topinka needs to increase her popularity by setting a tone for a Topinka governorship. (This is a flip-flop on my part. I thought mass critism would win a race against someone who is unpopular.) We don’t know what a Topinka governorship would mean. But we do know what a Blagojevich reelection would mean. I can’t be critical of people who choose a mediocre governor over uncertainty. I think Topinka would be a better governor… mainly because with Ryanojecich, how could things really be worse? Now Judy has to convince everyone else… and I can’t tell how difficult that really could be…
Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 3:59 pm
I’ve said it before. The Blago people have spent a ton of money trying-without success-to achieve some significant separation from JBT. Other candidates with big money leads, in this state and others, have been successful doing so. The fact that the Blago campaign can’t achieve that preference poll separation despite the advantages of money and incumbency, and despite JBT’s virtual absence from the campaign trail, must be giving the gov’s campaign staff some serious heartburn.
What happens after Labor Day will be telling. If Rod can bury her in September, when people start thinking about elections, it’s over. But if Judy can start raising her profile with the general public–read that people who have lives outside of politics and who don’t hang around these blogs–then she could be in the game.
Comment by illrino Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:01 pm
“trying-without success-to achieve some significant separation from JBT.”
They’ve polled this every month but one since January. In that time, the numbers have flipped, from Topinka up eleven, to Blagojevich up eight. By my math, that’s a nineteen-point swing.
How exactly do you define success. By party, I’m guessing.
Comment by BuckTurgidson Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:10 pm
I can’t help but say that this race still leans-democratic. I mean, up 8 points in the polls is what I would classify as “Leans-Democrat.” But the word “leans” means very little. The gov is certainly not safe… but he is not toast either.
Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:17 pm
I wonder if that question about the important issues was an open ended question or a multiple choice question. If it was open ended, I would have expected that corruption or crooked [deleted by moderator] in government or somesuch would have polled above 20 percent.
The number in the Rasmussen poll this week are probably closer to reality than Blago’s own wishful polling. I attended a very successful Judy fundraiser downstate. What surprised me was the number of locally prominent Dems in our area who showed up at the Judy event, some with (large) checks.
The anger at Blago in this part of the state rivals the anger at Bush up north.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:28 pm
You can’t win the election without winning downstate and at this point all polls show Rod and Judy even below Bloomington. If Rod has to spend money downstate, it really hurts his campaign strategy. Very expensive to run a media campaign and he has little support from elected officials, who will want to be on the same podium with him. Judy was just in the Metro East area again today. Second time in two weeks and she is getting good press coverage.
Comment by Lee Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:29 pm
I bet Topinka would pick up at least 6-10% easily if she showed a little more support to the conservatives of her party. Bill Brady has shown his support, but how many of his supporters actually support Topinka? Jim Oberweis has voiced his support for Topinka, but how many of his supporters would vote for Topinka?
I would safely say that if the Protect Marriage Referendum doesn’t get on the ballot, that conservatives don’t really have a reason to come out on election day. This could be a bad sign for ALL republican races in the state.
I know several conservatives that have tried to get in contact with the Topinka Campaign, end up having to leave a message and calls aren’t returned. When it comes to getting support (especially this early in the game), I’d say it’s best to call these people back (hire interns if you must!). It’s not like they are running TV Ads, doing Literature Blitzs, Parades everyday, etc etc… I’d say someone in the top of the Topinka campaign could return some phone calls even if it’s just doing it to be respectful.
The Topinka campaign can’t afford to alienate ANYONE especially a large portion of her own party.
Comment by Jeff Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:30 pm
You mean to tell me all those negative ads the Governor ran in the spring against JBT only got him a 3 point increase from February. The ads actually helped JBT; she gained 1 point! And now Silverback is yet recommending another “attack buy closer to election day! “to put the nail in JBT’s coffin? wow!…NEGATIVE ADS DON’T WORK! Especially when the candidate making he buy is a bit shady in character.
Comment by ChicagoDem Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:34 pm
B Hicks = skewed
Comment by MIDSTATE Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:40 pm
Are we seeing any affect from the federal investigations yet, or are people not that tuned in, or does federal investigation and government official just seem to go hand in hand in Illinois? Is anyone polling to see what happens when a third party jumps in?
Comment by paper bag over my head Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:41 pm
This reminds me of those great old sci-fi b/w movies about zombies. Rod is backed into a corner, sweaty and panicked, shooting at a zombie that his bullets just can’t seem to stop - moving closer, closer and CLOSER!
Rod’s numbers show he is cornered. It will take more time yet to see if Topinka’s zombie will catch up by November. As soon as they start spending what little money they have - it should.
Oh, and by the way, in that movie - as soon as Rod runs out of bullets - Fitzgerald’s mummy hand appears from behind Rod and grabs him by the head as Blagojevich screams.
More popcorn anyone?
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:52 pm
If Blago has been running $800,000 a week and Judy has been doing very little, then I think Judy can be ecstatic to only be done 8 points.
She really hasn’t started yet. If Blago couldn’t build up a 30+ lead with millions of dollars, than he is going to have problems in the homestretch.
Ashur Odishoo
Candidate
State Representative 11th District
Comment by Ashur Odishoo Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:54 pm
I can’t think of what she’s said or done to make her numbers go up.
It has to be all the speculation about indictments.
Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:54 pm
YDD,
Whitney still has to get on the ballot for Rasmussen, or any other pollster, to appear with Rod and Judy. And the Dems aren’t behaving in a way that I would consider very fair or democratic (and those cynics who say that’s just the hardball nature of politics — screw that — it shows a lack of confidence, class, trust and integrity in the system). The Dems have chosen to tie up things for the Greens at the State Board of Elections, which will likely set back the Greens until the end of August, when the Board has to make their decision.
Even then, assuming Whitney (or anybody else) is included on a poll, they still need to reach a 5 to 10 percent polling threshold to be invited to a debate, according to at least two sponsor guidelines of which I’m aware. A recent SurveyUSA poll (released on 7/25) found that 17 percent of those polled put “other” as an alternative to Rod and Judy. It would be really interesting to see how an actual name, such as Whitney’s, would register in a poll. Even then, look what happened to Cal Skinner in 2002. Ryan and Blago refused to be in a League of Women Voter’s debate because they invited him to the table. What kind of message does that send to debate sponsors, not to mention voters? And still some wonder why people are fed up with politics and politicians …
Comment by 'non Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 4:58 pm
VanillaMan, you’re stealing my best material. lol
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 5:00 pm
ChicagoDem, I have to assume that post is satire. Because as political analysis, it’s pretty good satire.
“You can’t win the election without winning downstate…”
Lee, how do you figure that? How do you explain Kerry’s IL win, for starters? It sure as heck didn’t come from downstate.
Comment by BuckTurgidson Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 5:22 pm
Blago’s war chest will soon wrap this up.
But the debates will clinch it for Blago when Topinka’s wackiness is on public display again. Her own mouth is her own worst enemy. She’s not up to the job and it’s pretty obvious to anyone but the most frothy Blago haters.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 5:56 pm
Rod, Blah…Judy, about the same.
At least when I listen to Judy she sounds sincere. I can’t say the same thing for Rod. Rod always sounds disingenuous and will change his story as it suits him.
If this lifelong Dem votes for Rod, the only reason will be so the Dems can have a clear shot at the 2010 remap. That’s it.
All former staffers know he never was interested in policy. Only himself. That’s not totally bad, but this guy takes it to such a level that it makes me sick. Its all about him. Rod and no one else. No loyality. Its all Rod’s ego. That’w why he has not been able to move up in the polls.
Comment by Minion Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 6:56 pm
Judy doesn’t need to blow a ton of money on negative attack ads like Rod has done.
She is showing herself to be quite prudent in her conservation of funds until closer to the election when all of those dippy undecided voters (how much corruption from the incumbent do you NEED to make up your mind?) will start paying some real attention.
Think about it. You know your GOP base will back you, and you know that centrist Democrats aren’t thrilled with Blago being known as “Public Official A,” so who’s left? The undecided voters.
Not an expert on this stuff at all, but it would seem wise for her to work smarter and not harder by conserving her money to get her message out closer to election time. Meanwhile, Rod has wasted money on the same negative attack ads that kept running over and over, ad nauseam, and he could very well have saved some of that money for later in the campaign. He’s got plenty! Why waste it just because it is there? Not very prudent of him in my opinion.
I think the gap will close and Judy will take the lead when all of the female voters who are still swooning over the pretty-guy’s perfect hair wake up and realize that this specimen of so-called “testicular virility” needs to pay more attention to the books and not his looks when it comes to the Illinois economy.
The redhead is coming to get ya, Rod.
Comment by Angie Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 8:01 pm
Appearently the pollster caught more state workers in their 500 person sample this time, and Topinka’s numbers got a little uptic. But she’s still getting clobbered. If there’s one thing people hate, it’s hypocricy, and Topinka’s taken it to new heights.
And come on Angie, get real. Women are more likely to be the most embarrassed by Topinka.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 8:48 pm
Come on JUDY……get those position papers done girlfriend, show some brilliance at how to bring in new revenue sources for the state.
Comment by BaarBacker Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 9:21 pm
Is anybody from the Topinka campaign reading her un/favorables? Have you shown them to your candidate?
Topinka’s biggest weakness is that she thinks what people want in a Governor is a “genuine person” who gruffly says the first think that comes into her brain, doesn’t care if everybody knows she shops at the Salvation Army, and has a lasse faire attitude toward her appearance.
If judy would tone down the clown hair and make-up, stick to her campaign’s talking points, and try to smile for a few months, she might make up ground.
They won’t admit it, but 30% of voters pick the candidate they least mind listening to on the radio or seeing on t.v. That killed Gore, Kerry, Dole and Bush 41.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 9:51 pm
If people are concerned about Iraq, national security and the economy, then they should be giving the governor a wide birth. He knows less than nothing about the first two and he has ruined the Illinois economy with his feel-good, accomplish nothing, non-funded excuses for programs. You can plan all you want, but if you have no follow-through, you’re through.
Comment by Disgusted Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 9:53 pm
When did JBT say she was going to raise the income tax? Politely, I must have missed that. To the point, I don’t believe she ever said it. Someone needs to show us a cite, or stop telling fibs.
Comment by steve Thursday, Aug 10, 06 @ 11:54 pm
“she did not rule out a tax increase…”
/www.nwherald.com/MainSection/374396540421475.php
Comment by T$ Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 6:55 am
[…] And he’s still up 45-37 in the latest Rasmussen poll. […]
Pingback by IlliniPundit.com » Blog Archive » More Hiring Fraud by Blagojevich Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 9:11 am
Re: “If there’s one thing people hate, it’s hypocricy, and Topinka’s taken it to new heights.”
So hold your nose and vote for her anyways. Rod has appointed people connected to Nation of Islam’s head bigot, for crying out loud. The nice Minister (yes, I’m being sarcastic) once went on a global tour to visit all of the sitting dictators of the world.
You don’t like Judy for “hypocricy” (check the spelling on that, lest you appear to have graduated from a Chicago Public School), but Rod is appointing people who were top aides to dictator-loving lunatics to his hate crimes panel.
“And come on Angie, get real. Women are more likely to be the most embarrassed by Topinka.”
I’d do something else with the hair, to be honest (like grow it already), but I want Rod OUT. He’s screwed up Illinois too much. Just get him out out out.
Comment by Angie Saturday, Aug 12, 06 @ 2:25 am
Me again.
Re: “Topinka’s biggest weakness is that she thinks what people want in a Governor is a ‘genuine person’ who gruffly says the first think that comes into her brain, doesn’t care if everybody knows she shops at the Salvation Army, and has a lasse faire attitude toward her appearance.”
Personally, she looks like someone who might care more about Illinois than her hair (unlike Rod, who must fuss over his more than Bon Jovi does his).
“If judy would tone down the clown hair and make-up, stick to her campaign’s talking points, and try to smile for a few months, she might make up ground.”
I agree she needs a serious makeover, but thank God this isn’t Helen Thomas running (I’m still laughing at Tony Snow telling Thomas to stop “heckling the teacher” here).
“They won’t admit it, but 30% of voters pick the candidate they least mind listening to on the radio or seeing on t.v. That killed Gore, Kerry, Dole and Bush 41.”
30% of voters are idiots? No, I agree that it does make you cringe when you have to look upon Kerry. He reminds me of Lurch from the Addams Family…even after the Botox.
But please! Let’s all get over vanity and realize that Rod, who got all chummy with a top aide to the head bigot of the Nation of Islam, is just behaving like a reckless, lax about security, well-dressed pretty boy who cares more about his hair than the sorry state of the Illinois economy.
Comment by Angie Saturday, Aug 12, 06 @ 2:35 am