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Gov. Blagojevich’s job approval numbers are still in the red and little changed from last month. 44 percent approved (44 percent last month) and 52 percent disapproved (52 percent last month). Check the trend lines and the crosstabs here.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 2:49 pm
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I find it odd that between the negative aspect of the investigations, and the positive of his giveaways and ambitious spending proposals, he is exactly the same. Something like flipping a coin, but having it rest on the edge.
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 3:06 pm
I always hated Stats in college. Probably because it was not an exact science like math. If the election results come out like the approval ratings, the polling (with a +/- 4.2) can be considered on the money if he wins by a nose with 48% (3% for the greens) OR if he gets killed 56% to 40%. Either way they can say they were right.
No wonder I almost flunked those courses.
Comment by anon Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 3:08 pm
Blagojevich’s job approval numbers among seniors (43-53), independents (33-61), college graduates (42-47), and grad school grads (37-59) continue to lag.
His job approval among women (48-49) and members of his own party (59-38) are far below what they should be, and his support among blacks fell 10% in one month (65-32). Considering how badly he needs these groups to win and the fact that support among them has stagnated, he should be very concerned as he approaches election day.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 3:12 pm
None of the polls that I’ve seen show that a majority prefers neither Blagojevich nor Topinka–many have shown 20% or more as voting for another candidate, with about 5% undecided. Remember, it only takes 34% to win a plurality election in a 3-way race like this one.
I’m just worried that Blagojevich might siphon off too many votes and spoil the election for Rich Whitney. Too bad we don’t yet use Instant Runoff Voting in Illinois.
Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 5:36 pm
That first sentence should read, “None of the polls that I’ve seen show that a majority prefer either Blagojevich or Topinka…”
Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 5:37 pm
Besides the Tabs that YDD points out the most significant is the 15% increase in disapproval among Cook County respondents–you don’t have to be a stats expert to figure that one out-and my guess is the undertow and fall out from the Stroger debacle is pulling on Blago’s numbers by sheer party affiliation. And of course it bears noting as it did in July, Topinka has not had one tv ad on the air and Blago has spent millions…
Comment by potomac fever Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 7:01 pm
potomac mentioned tv ads… are they all in chicago markets? or are they in other large markets downstate? i get local coverage from both peoria and quad cities stations and havent noticed any ads.
Comment by Robbie Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 7:11 pm
Downstate dispproval is still at 60%.
TV ads did run in Peoria because I’m in Bloomington and we get the Peoria affilates. Ads ran for All Kids and against Judy on FOX News, and local broadcast in Peoria, Bloomington, Champaign, Springfield, Decatur, Quincy.
Blago’s millions has not moved his downstate disapproval outside the MOE.
Comment by The Real Numbers Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 8:00 pm
What is really nice is he is spending political capital that he should have saved for a VP run.On the national scale he is going to be on the bottom of the list.In other words the big guys are going to say Rod who.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 9:04 pm
More days click by
Judy Bore makes no gains
Another homerun for…GRod !
Rean em and weep.
Comment by Reddbyrd Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 9:27 pm
Potomac, you could be right, but I don’t think so. My guess is that is decline in Cook County is directly linked to his decline among black voters.
I will bet that his 19-point fall in the Collar Counties is directly linked to all of the scandal stories.
Did he improve anywhere except among liberals?
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 9:33 pm
Well…
Considering he was at 30 at one point…..
Comment by JohnR Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 10:28 pm
Reddbyrd -
This is a job approval poll, not a horse race. And I assure you, it will be very, very difficult for Blagojevich to win re-election with a 44% job approval rating, unless his Democratic base comes home and turns out.
Right now, his best hope seems to be that hardcore Republicans will stay home, but his paid and earned media strategy actually helps Topinka solidify her base.
Blagojevich should still win, but I’d be darned concerned if I were him.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Aug 22, 06 @ 10:44 pm
Noone is really listening right now. Vacations, high summer, etc. After Labor Day the big money will kick in and Big Rod will look like we are on top of all 50 states. He’ll blast out a new promise or two benefiting everyone and all will be forgiven. Money talks and he has plenty. Say……is that the FBI coming up my drive??? What’s with the cuffs!!!
Comment by Say It Ain't So Wednesday, Aug 23, 06 @ 8:15 am
Isnt the 37% sample size for downstate kind of large? The percentages of people interviewed from each region seem to be off to me. This may have affected the numbers.
Comment by Southern Ilinois Democrat Wednesday, Aug 23, 06 @ 11:50 am
Considering that a large number of Greens are located in and around Chicago, you may be correct–those supporting Rich Whitney may have raised that 17-25% other category a little higher.
Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Aug 23, 06 @ 1:32 pm