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* After showing Democrats like Pat Quinn and Mike Frerichs closing the gap in recent days, We Ask America is showing the opposite happening in the US Senate race…
State Sen. Jim Oberweis trails three-term U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin by 10 percentage points in a new Reboot Illinois poll.
Oberweis, a Sugar Grove Republican best known statewide by the family dairy company that bears his name, had trailed Durbin by 13 and 15 points in Reboot Illinois polls on June 12 and July 30. An Aug. 27 poll by the Chicago Sun-Times’ Early & Often political portal, also conducted by We Ask America, found Oberweis trailing Durbin by 7.3 percentage points, 47.8 percent to Oberweis’ 40.5 percent.
The Reboot Illinois poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept. 4, is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,014 likely Illinois voters statewide, including 28 percent of responses from cell phone contacts. It has a margin of error of +/-3.08 percentage points and party split of 38 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans and 36 percent independents.
“After conducting three U.S. Senate polls in 10 days, the results have varied from a 7-point to a 10-point lead for Democrat Dick Durbin,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “While these recent polls show gains in favor of challenger Republican Jim Oberweis, there is still a lot of time left for game-changing movement.”
Sen. Durbin did himself no favors by refusing to release his own poll results the other day.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:36 pm
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This is of course very early, but my head will explode if Obie wins and Cross loses.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:44 pm
Has anyone seen a negative Ad, heard a negative Ad against Oberweis yet?
Just wondering…I mean, as Oberweis is on radio at least, I hadn’t heard Durbin yet, doesn’t mean he hasn’t.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:45 pm
When will Durbin unload on the Milkman? It’s not like there’s a dearth of good material.
Comment by Anon Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:45 pm
- AA -, you?
Anything is possible, it’s crazy this year.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 1:04 pm
Re: attacks, Is Durbin opting for that ever so elusive always positive campaign? Probably not. What I think he is actually doing is spending resources helping other Illinois Democrats with the idea that if things get too close for his comfort, he can easily go up on TV and the like seeing as he is the #2 Senate Democrat and has plenty of money.
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 1:12 pm
Durbin is playing this way too conservatively, but maybe he feels he has to keep low since his main claim to fame is his Washington status and that is not necessarily a positive thing this year.
Comment by Cassiopeia Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 1:24 pm
I agree pct captain, but the problem for Durbin is that these polls showing the race closing may encourage some right-wing superpac to try to put a giant head on their mantle. He won’t lose but it is more headache than he wants.
Comment by Raising Kane Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 1:30 pm
Has anyone seen a negative Ad, heard a negative Ad against Oberweis yet?
When you were a little kid and got picked on, did you learn how to box, learn how to fight and make your enemy a friend, or did you just poison their lunch?
We don’t need another negative campaign.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 1:53 pm
Don’t count Durbin out. He is a very hard working and seasoned campaigner
Comment by Because I say so... Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 1:54 pm
Oberweis can’t raise any money. He’s largely self-funding. I have no idea how large he’s willing to go.
Durbin, of course, can and has raised a boatload. He’s also spent a lot already. He’s got a pretty fat committee payroll, but I suspect he’s already produced spots and booked time.
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=ILS1
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 2:24 pm
It is very telling that Durbin is not polling well, above 50. My goodness, if the Democrats have to start spending money and resources in Illinois on Durbin, what does that say about the other states with really vulnerable Democratic Senators?
Comment by Apocalypse Now Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 2:34 pm
Quinn may be technically “closing the gap”, but his numbers are not rising. 37% in the latest poll is lower than all of Quinn’s polls numbers posted on RealClearPolitics for the past polls. The Libertarian candidate entering the race may be lowering Rauner’s numbers, but it’s definitely not raising Quinn’s numbers. Quinn’s numbers are stuck. Quinn is in big trouble. All of Quinn’s juvenile campaign ads are a joke and are not resonating with anyone.
Comment by Jechislo Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 2:43 pm
===When you were a little kid and got picked on, did you learn how to box, learn how to fight and make your enemy a friend, or did you just poison their lunch?===
“This ain’t beanbag” lol
Man, thanks - VanillaMan - for the laugh.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 2:46 pm
Durbin will win but not with my vote. I will never vote for him. He is no better then Oberweis.
I will vote third party or write in but I will never vote for Durbin ever.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 3:38 pm
When will Durbin unload on the Milkman? Will he use the IRS against him like he did against Al Salvi?
Comment by Rollo Tomasi Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 4:28 pm
Willy, not a peep. Lotsa time left, though.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 4:42 pm