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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
OK, so what we’re gonna do today is discuss some congressional races that you may or may not care about in order to talk about the governor’s race, which you probably do care about since you’re reading this column.
First up, let’s look at freshman Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider, who is leading former one-term Republican Congressman Bob Dold by two points, 46-44 with 9 percent undecided. according to a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll taken Sept. 30th.
Millions have already been spent in that north suburban district, and Schneider barely beat Dold last time in a big Democratic year, so it’s little surprise that this race is so tight. The poll of 919 likely voters has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent and 23 percent were mobile phone contacts.
Gov. Pat Quinn is getting slaughtered in the district by Bruce Rauner 51-39, with another 5 percent going for Libertarian Chad Grimm and 5 percent undecided. That can’t be helping Schneider. There are a ton of anti-gun, pro-choice women in that district, and yet Quinn is losing to Rauner among females 45-42.
Moving right along, every poll was way off in the 11th Congressional District two years ago. So, keep that in mind when I tell you that the latest Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll has Democratic Congressman Bill Foster ahead of Republican state Rep. Darlene Senger by only three points, 47-44, with another 10 percent undecided. The poll of 918 likely voters was taken Sept. 30th and had a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent, with 24 percent mobile phone contacts.
The race in the sprawling southwest suburban district has so far attracted little outside attention. A recent Senger poll showed her trailing by 5 and the campaign decided to keep it secret in order to sneak up on Foster. Oops.
Rauner is leading Quinn in the district 48-39, with another 6 percent going to the Libertarian..
Another Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll showed state Rep. Mike Bost leading Democratic freshman Congressman Bill Enyart by five points, 45-40, with six points going to Green Party candidate Paula Bradshaw in this southern Illinois district.
Despite Democratic efforts to paint Bost as a scary, screaming extremist, the Republican is leading Enyart 41-40 among women. The poll of 909 likely voters was taken Oct. 1st and has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percent. 22 percent of the contacts were cell phone users.
Rauner is way ahead of Gov. Quinn in that district 47-35, with 9 percent going to the Libertarian candidate.
The biggest bright spot for the congressional Democrats came from a Sept. 29th Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll which showed Democratic Congresswoman Cheri Bustos leading former GOP Congressman Bobby Schilling by nine points, 50-41. The poll of 953 likely voters had a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.
National Republicans have been saying for months that Gov. Quinn would bring down Democratic incumbents, and Quinn is trailing Rauner in this northwestern Illinois district 42-38, with 9 percent going to the Libertarian. But, obviously, Quinn isn’t yet hurting Bustos.
Like elsewhere, Quinn has a big problem with women in the district. Bustos is winning among women 51-39, but they split 39-39 in the governor’s race.
And, finally, Republican Congressman Rodney Davis appears to be coasting to reelection, according to a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll. Davis has a very big 51-38 lead over Democrat Ann Callis, with 11 percent undecided. The poll of 932 likely voters was taken Oct. 1st and has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.
Even so, Callis is still getting more support than Gov. Quinn in a district that stretches from Champaign to the Metro East. Rauner leads 43-35, with 11 percent for the Libertarian.
OK, now to the point I’m trying to make.
If you look back at 2012, it was very difficult to find a hotly contested congressional race where President Obama was trailing in the polls. He won all the districts listed above.
Again, these are swing districts. Neither party has a huge advantage over the other party. You’d expect Quinn to at least be competitive, but he’s getting blown out everywhere except the Bustos district, where he’s still trailing.
Obama won Illinois by 17 points, so Quinn doesn’t have to be all that close in those congressional districts to prevail. But his appalling numbers are a clear sign of his unpopularity everywhere but Chicago. Despite recent polls showing Rauner and Quinn essentially tied, I think the governor is still a long way away from closing this deal.
Subscribers have more background info on all the races plus crosstabs for each poll.
Discuss.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 9:05 am
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Fortunately the big brains (kidding) in the IL GOP hitch their congressmen to beating down Obama instead of hitching them to beating Quinn who is much more unpopular in these districts. Callis is a sure loser, the rest will win. Schneider had a terrific ad on prime time last night.
Comment by Toure's Latte Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 9:25 am
This election reminds me a bit of the way in 2004 George W. Bush was helped by a slowly improving economy. This is a critical election for labor and in a non-presidential election without much of a senate race to-boot, Rauner needs something to drive “his” people to the polls. Quinn’s phony image as a reformer is hard to shake with the public: he comes off as a bumbling uncle whose heart is in the right place. The improving economy keeps more people home. I think this is going down to the wire - the weather on election day might even be the difference maker!
Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 9:39 am
Illinois Dems in Congress had a terrible year in 2010, but Quinn still prevailed. This year they’re more competitive, and if they’re successful at turning out more Democratic voters that usually skip non-Presidential years it only helps Quinn.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 9:55 am
Lake co dem: smart comment. public perceptions of the economy underlie it all, and it’s on the edge right now.
To the post: do these local results confirm or call into question the overall state polls on the Gov’s race, when broken up by region?
I know the precision isn’t there to make real comparisons, but these results don’t look good for Quinn overall.
Comment by walker Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 9:57 am
As long as Bruce keeps doing what he is doing, I predict a winning margin for him of about 2.8%.
I know this blog is highly skewed towards Quinn, but Quinn is still, and has always been, in big trouble.
Rauner has a good ground game for GOTV. A very close election with a new Governor in Springfield.
Comment by Jechislo Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:05 am
- Rauner has a good ground game for GOTV. -
What’s your evidence?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:08 am
Rich I believe you are on to something here. I have a very good friend who is deeply involved with the Quinn campaign, mostly helping raise money. However he is close also to PQ on a personal front. He and I had this conversation a couple weeks ago and he responded that even though Quinn getting beat bad downstate and collar counties, Cook will carry the day.
Now here is my question for you. Can Cook county get those numbers out? Read Laura Washington in todays Sun Times, all quiet in Cook county people talking about Mayors race.
So with NO heated races in Cook County will the turn out be what Quinn Needs?
When the Cook County GOP gave all Dem county wide office holders a pass could it have been with a low turn out in mind?
Just a thought!!!!
Comment by True Believer Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:30 am
Romney won the 13th in 2012, albeit by the slimmest of margins.
Comment by Anon Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:41 am
Not something I’m going to reveal. If you look hard enough, you’ll find your evidence.
Comment by Jechislo Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:11 am
agree that Davis will win 1L-13, but as undecideds often break to the challenger, might this end up a close race?
Comment by Summerwind Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:12 am
===but as undecideds often break to the challenger===
Some do, some don’t, many stay home.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:13 am
…or undervote.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:13 am
I am surprised at the number of people I’ve talked to who do vote at every election are planning to undervote the governor’s race this year. They are split about equal between friends who normally vote red and friends that normally vote blue.
Comment by G'Kar Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 12:17 pm
- If you look hard enough, you’ll find your evidence. -
I’ve looked plenty hard, and the evidence I’ve seen is laughable, especially the kid that stopped at my door.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:45 pm