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* Huffington Post polling average since July 1, excluding the Tribune’s poll…
…Adding… Also not included is that GOP poll I told you about the other day which had Rauner up by six. I didn’t exclude those numbers, HuffPo hasn’t yet added them.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:44 am
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There is still plenty of time, but wow, that trend line is not looking good for Baron Von Carhartt.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:46 am
Peaking too early? Wonder how NRI coverage is going to effect the campaigns. If nothing comes out, won’t matter. If a lot comes out, obviously it matters. What will be more interesting if it is somewhere in the middle and the Rauner folks try and make mountains out of molehills. It actually could be counter-productive for them if it gets them off their game. Fun to come.
BTW, what is the agreed debate schedule at this point? Are they doing more than one?
Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:49 am
===Peaking too early? Wonder how NRI coverage is going to effect the campaigns. ===
1) 42 percent ain’t exactly a “peak.”
2) PQ needs momentum going into what could be a horrific week for him.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:51 am
Although not unexpected it’s somewhat remarkable that Quinn has moved ahead on this composite without significantly moving his own trend line up. Poll respondents are clearly abandoning Rauner in a measurable way but not necessarily to the improvement of Quinn’s support score and it’s not clear where those voters ultimately land. But three of the four options (go to Quinn, go to Grimm, fall out of the universe) work to his benefit so he seems to be significantly advancing his interests while essentially standing still.
Another more interesting but difficult to measure question is were those poll respondents who are not opting for Rauner in these more recent polls Rauner supporters all along or were they likely 3rd party voters who were not being given a 3rd party option in polls until recently? If it’s just the latter it may not mean a significant shift in the overall landscape it would just mean that we were doing a poor job of measuring a close race back in the summer. I’m not sure I buy that but I’m also not sure you can measure it in a way that would rule it out.
Comment by The Captain Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:53 am
I’d like to see a poll where Illinoisans are asked whether or not they’d like to see other candidates than these two numnuts…
Comment by Mouthy Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:53 am
I’d like to see Chad Grimm’s numbers on this chart. It would be a big statement if he were to clear 20% this November.
Comment by Jeepster Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:56 am
===It would be a big statement if he were to clear 20% ===
lol
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:57 am
Rich, you’re right that 42 isn’t a peak, but it may be PQ’s peak. I think he needs 48 to win this and he’s unlikely to pick up more than 1/3 of the undecideds on elections day.
And yes, he does need momentum. Do you know about the debates?
Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:59 am
“lol ” I know, I know. Just saying that you wouldn’t be wasting your vote if you cast it for Grimm.
Comment by Jeepster Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:59 am
Quinn’s problem is that he appears to have a 42% ceiling and the undecideds are likely not undecided about him, but about his challenger. With a well known and heavily unliked incumbent the undecideds historically break towards the challenger.
Comment by Cassiopeia Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:01 am
It’s better than should be expected for Quinn, an unpopular incumbent. At the same time, national Congress is super unpopular, but some or many incumbents will probably win reelection.
There are some close national races also, and it should come down to turnout. I read that Democrats have invested heavily in GOTV efforts. We’ll see how that works out.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:01 am
===you’re right that 42 isn’t a peak, but it may be PQ’s peak===
Meh. He’ll go up. He was right around 40-42 four years ago at this point.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:05 am
Rauner will also rise as well. It’s not necessarily the head to head numbers you wanna pay attention to right now, it’s the margin.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:06 am
Cynic, we disagree. I think PQ is going to pick up another point or two as we move closer to the election, as cranky Dems give up on rattling their swords and admit that they’re still voting for Quinn — maybe not enthusiastically, but voting.
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:06 am
Quinn unloaded the entire arsenal on Rauner. Grimm entered the race for the oppressed to have a place to go, or more importantly, threaten to go. And yet, here we are. It’s a race. No one’s gonna run out of money. It’s a campaign from here on out, New Hampshire primary style. This is where the big guns on both sides earn their money. In a month, someone will be a goat and someone else will be the flavor of the month. Too bad. It’s been a pretty good battle of the minds.
Comment by A guy... Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:08 am
===Quinn unloaded the entire arsenal on Rauner===
Don’t kid yourself.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:09 am
A Guy, you say this has pretty good battle of the minds?
This is what the Daily Herald wrote about the guy they endorsed (Rauner): “[W]e are more than a little troubled by the vagueness of his economic proposals, the outright naiveté if not political opportunism of his call for a property tax freeze, the sometimes simplistic framework in which he contains Illinois’ complex problems.”
Comment by Bill White Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:11 am
===It’s been a pretty good battle of the minds.===
I hope you are talking about behind the scenes..cuz the candidates in these two campaigns have been anything BUT pretty.
Comment by Slugger O'Toole Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:14 am
Soccermom,
“cranky Dems give up on rattling their swords and admit that they’re still voting for Quinn” Were you talking about me? I may but I’m still not there yet. Just know I’m not voting for Rauner. I suspect you’re right that there are many of me around.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:17 am
Put Oswego Willy in there and see what happens to the numbers!
Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:20 am
we know pat quinn and are not impressed.
rauner was brand new, we took several looks, and each time he opened his mouth or ran a new ad, he left us wanting. union bosses, corrupt legislators, $18 watch, carhartt jacket, minimum wage, pensions, gay marriage, dem contributions, rendell, nursing homes, term limits, social agenda, bankruptcies, the van, wine club, property tax freeze.
the two that rankle me the most are the property tax freeze, and term limits, because he is so blatant about presenting them as a fait accompli if he is elected.
Comment by Langhorne Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:36 am
I gotta say, I am starting to warm up to PQ because I get the feeling that he has the “underdog” status. Granted the polls perhaps show that this is no longer the case, but I still pick up that vibe. And this is from a person who really did not care for Quinn prior to this crazy campaign cycle. Maybe I’m just scared of Rauner… But really the question I have is, has anyone actually started feeling more positive about Pat Quinn through this, or is it just me?
Comment by Rockford's Finest Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:36 am
I think that Willy must have carpal tunnel from posting so much. Just kidding of course. This election would have been over in August if the opponent was someone other than Bruce Rauner. This guy has more dirty laundry in his basement that a Cook CO. hospital. And it keeps coming. If Pat Quinn keeps it close thru Oct. he might still have a chance. Like Rich said it all depends on if people turn out to vote or are to turned off to bother.
Comment by Ginhouse Tommy Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:38 am
This race, in this bifurcated state, is a classic case study for serious pollsters. Neither of the two principal candidates is apt to win a popularity contest. Therefore, the candidate with the fewest negatives will likely win, the inverse of “for whom will you vote? Let us then speculate that the winner will be whoever has the highest favorable to unfavorable ratio. That is, don’t trust a poll that shows the winner having more negatives than the loser, as have many of the published polls. For mathematicians who calculate the probabilities of poll accuracy, this race is a real challenge.
Comment by Keyser Soze Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:46 am
Chicago Cynic -
Who did you vote for 4 years ago> My guess is NOT Brady
Comment by trader joe Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:49 am
It would be interesting to see how the negatives have tracked. Wouldn’t be surprised if the spread stays within the MOE for the duration, and Raunerites blame the Libertarians for Quinn pulling out the victory.
Comment by Toure's Latte Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:51 am
Methinks the race will be won by Rauner unless the Democrats have been holding back and just waiting for the right time to drop their PR Nuke Bomb on Rauner. Mike Madigan is politically intelligent enough to hold back at least one or two major PR zingers on Rauner and his team of amateurs. Madigan would wait to drop the Nuke Bomb on Rauner a week before the election so Rauner wouldn’t have enough time to respond to the charges.
Comment by Coffee Cup Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:58 am
=== Slugger O’Toole - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 11:14 am:
===It’s been a pretty good battle of the minds.===
I hope you are talking about behind the scenes..cuz the candidates in these two campaigns have been anything BUT pretty.====
Slugs, that’s exactly who I’m talking about.
Comment by A guy... Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 12:07 pm
“I have been waiting to comment on this Post, because I had to ice my carpel tunnel, and to see where the internal polling at my HQ has this race but…”
To the Post,
Looking at this, I just see a “trend”, in a snapshot of all the polls, with one month to go.
No one has “peaked”, and both have time and room to get ahead and stay ahead a week out or so.
Rauner can’t be pleased with the “trend”, and the shotgun Ads including an “old, angry, white, male” seem to point to a campaign, at least Ad wise, trying to either find a stride, or hoping to pick off enough “little” of an awful lot of groups will be enough. There seems to be little to target who the demo IS the Rauner voter, so just get what we can from everywhere and see where it shakes out.
To the Quinn Crew, it’s only going to get worse in coverage and stories for a while in earned media. Shoring up Quinn’s base, including Martin Sheen and minimum wage, and Unions and Rauner’s negatives are needed to keep it close for a GOTV that Quinn’s Crew plan has dragging him over the finish line. This tracking has Quinn in that window, but it might close on the fingers, depending on the leakage these few weeks bring. Not the best news in this graph for Quinn, the only thing gleaned is a chance to be optimistic …today.
So it’s a “trend” and “optimism” and nothing towards finality.
Both should worry lots, and work harder as to ignore their worry, because the worry for both is well-founded.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 12:11 pm
“This…is a classic case study for serious pollsters”
Keyser may be on to something there. I wouldn’t mind seeing a poll that asked “Which candidate for Governor will you be voting against, Republican Bruce Rauner or Democrat Pat Quinn?” (rotated for fairness of course). could be fascinating.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 12:16 pm
Quinn’s 47% last time out was the lowest Dem gubernatorial share since the Edgar landslide in 1994.
Brady’s 46% was the highest GOP share since Ryan got 51% in 1998.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 12:41 pm
I have no clue who is going to win this. I go back and forth every day.
Comment by Peoria guy Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 12:49 pm
Given the historical underpolling of Democratic voters, the latest composite figures (Quinn 41% to Rauner 39% as of September 29) indicate that Quinn is actually ahead of Rauner at this point by roughly 5% to 7%.
Comment by Quiet Sage Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:08 pm
My father observes that the reason candidates who raise more money tend to win elections is that establishment donors give to candidates who will win.
Given the trend of the poll numbers and Quinn overcoming bad poll numbers before, will the Quinn campaign get an influx of establishment money in the final weeks?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:12 pm
My father observes that the reason candidates who raise more money tend to win elections is that establishment donors give to candidates who will win.
Given the trend of the poll numbers and Quinn overcoming bad poll numbers before, will the Quinn campaign get an influx of establishment money in the final weeks?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:12 pm
@ Rockford’s Finest =has anyone actually started feeling more positive about Pat Quinn through this, or is it just me?=
The guy’s a proven closer. I’m thinking he just might pull this one out.
Comment by Because I say so... Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:29 pm
I helped Kirk Dillard, though I now support Bruce Rauner. But, a Rauner win will not be from feelings of love or warmth for the candidate. Pat Quinn has to give moderate republicans and independents some hook to vote for him despite worsening State problems over the past 6 ½ years.
Comment by Samurai Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:48 pm
One thing that has never been mentioned on this subject is the huge anti-Democratic sentiment that is prevalent across the country. The sentiment that will probably cause the US senate to go republican.
How much of this sentiment will play against Quinn? I don’t know. But if there is enough to hurt Quinn by 1 or 2%, that could tip the scales for Rauner.
I have to believe this anti-Democratic sentiment can’t be totally ignored as a player in the Governor’s race.
Comment by Jechislo Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:48 pm
- is the huge anti-Democratic sentiment that is prevalent across the country. -
Were you born after 2010?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:04 pm
The sentiment now, not in 2012 or 2013.
Comment by Jechislo Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:31 pm
There is no reasonable question that Quinn is now way ahead of his 2010–polls at this time 4 years ago showed Quinn double-digit behind. Plus, the Rauner-Quinn race is exponentially more high-profile than the Brady-Quinn race, thus mitigating the national trend. What both of these factors mean is that the national Republican wave must be far greater in 2014 than it was in 2010 to put Rauner over the top. Not impossible, but at this snapshot in time Quinn clearly has the upper hand.
Comment by Quiet Sage Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:39 pm
Chicago Cynic, if I want to be snarky about you, there are more direct ways than blog posts.
I meant cranky Dems who were threatening to vote for the GOP six months ago but who now are returning, albeit grumpily, back to the fold.
To be sure, if Rauner had waged a decent campaign, more of those folks might have stayed off the reservation. But he hasn’t given anybody a good reason to cross the aisle.
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:42 pm
Quinn’s approval rating was at 36% in the last Tribbie poll.
If Rauner loses after investing all those millions, that crew he hired is going to have a hard time finding work in the future.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 5:45 pm
If you throw out the Trib’s Poll (which may be unwise, but…), since Labor Day, PQ is up by an Average of around just over 3%. Sounds about accurate as to where we’re likely at right now: Quinn around, oh, 44%; Rauner around 41%; 5% Anti-Establishment folks who no matter what will cast a Protest Vote for the Liberterian (even if they don’t know his name, they can vote AGAINST BOTH of the Regular Party Candidates and their Consciences will be clear; and the ALL-IMPORTANT 10% UNDECIDEDs/Arguably Independents overall, who may still perhaps be able to be persuade one way or the other and who still may very well determine the FINAL Outcome of this Close Contest…!
And all this just before what I’ve expected for several months with One Month to Go: the All-Out Billionaire TV Ad BLITZ already begun and about to INundate the TV and Radio Airwaves throughout Illinois by the Ultra-Wealthy Candidate among the 3, who, with Personal Funds amounting, in effect, to Endless Millions at his Disposal, and as many Gazillionaires before him throughout the U.S. in this situation have done before, will spend wildly and unashamedly in a last-minute desperate attempt to, in effect, buy the Election, because he/she is in the Position to do so–and as many Political Observers know: sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
I happen to believe, that, in a Cliffhanger, nevertheless, this time it won’t succeed (once again as many other Millinoaire-types, although not all, have learned the hard way beFORE in the Land of Lincoln…!
Comment by Just the Way It Is One Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 7:42 pm
That was meant to read above, “…Millionaire-types…Land of Lincoln)!
Comment by Just the Way It Is One Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 7:45 pm