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* Sun-Times…
In the overall head-to-head race, the survey showed Quinn having an edge over Rauner of just under 3.5 percentage points – within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
That’s actually a bit outside the margin of error, but I would’ve rounded down the “just under 3.5″ to “3″ anyway, so, whatever, it’s close enough for hand grenades.
Anyway, the Sun-Times story focused on a question about whether voters wanted business or political or both experience in a governor. A plurality of 42 percent said “business.” That’s good news for Rauner, of course, but 24 percent said “political” and 25 percent said “both.”
* Since we have some “historical” numbers to compare, I was a bit more interested in this question…
Those queried last week considered Rauner the reform candidate over Quinn — a similar finding to what Early & Often reported in August. However, Rauner’s reform numbers have slipped nine percentage points since Early & Often posed that question in August. Then, 46 percent picked Rauner as the reformer, and 21 percent chose Quinn. Last week, 37 percent said Rauner was the reformer and 26 percent said Quinn was.
It’s not just that Rauner has fallen 9, it’s that Quinn has also jumped 5. That’s a fairly significant swing.
* These numbers have moved against Rauner as well. From the October poll, with August results in parentheses…
Which gubernatorial candidate do you think most understands your everyday concerns?
Rauner: 36 (40)
Quinn: 41 (38)
Grimm: 6 (N/A)
Neither: 16 (12)
Quinn now leads on that question, and his lead is outside the MoE. It’s a slight lead, to be sure, but it’s a seven-point swing. The trend is not becoming Rauner’s friend. But, there’s three weeks to go, campers. All sorts of things can happen.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 10:45 am
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==Rauner “reformer” image fading==
Yeah threatening a woman and her family tends to do that.
Comment by too obvious Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 10:48 am
I betcha Bruce Rauner ain’t too happy that the #NRI ammo box proved to be empty.
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 10:55 am
Everyone on this Blog who wrote Pat Quinn’s obituary should be forced to publicly apologize. Rauner may still win this thing, but all I read this summer was doom and gloom for Quinn.
Also, all of those who were using words like “Bloodtober” and saying Quinn is corrupt should also line up and apologize. I know many were hoping that this would be a slam dunk, but it’s not.
3 weeks left, and it’s time to close. Time to find out who is Lee Smith and who is Carlos Marmol (sorry for the Cubs reference).
Comment by Try-4-Truth Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 10:56 am
Well, perhaps Rauner’s ‘Reformer’ image is fading, but his ‘Enforcer’ image is rising. Next on the campaign stops, Brucie sporting fatigues and swinging a nightstick, nicknamed “I’ll Bury You”
Comment by How Ironic Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 10:57 am
Just out of curiosity, when was the last poll that showed a Rauner lead? The We Ask America poll from 09/18-09/19?
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 10:57 am
Downstate is starting to look Grimm for Rauner….
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 10:58 am
===NRI===
For the record, Sen. Brady bringing up a lump sum budget was “bad” proved he wastage only one who learned from Day 1 to Day 2 of that meeting of the parliament of owls. Well done Sen. Brady.
To the Post,
The trend needs a reason to break, Rauner is running out if days and tricks out of his pristine Carhartt coat.
I am sure the GOTV that Rauber has, with a floating base of voters, undefined by a base that is confusing to pin down…
… this trend is a warning sign to get out what you think your best hits, and best closings are…Mr. Salesman.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:00 am
Hands down, the Quinn Team is running the best campaign in the country. The TV ad with Rauner threatening a woman’s family is gold. I still believe Quinn is extremely unpopular with white suburban males, and needs to bring some of them back before November 4th. Be interesting to see what else his media team has up their sleeves.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:02 am
That seven percent Libertarian vote is everything. Normally, one would expect it to decline in the actual election tally, mostly to the benefit of Rauner, which is one reason I’ve been slow to put Quinn ahead. I am increasingly not so sure about that this year. There are Republicans who have strong doubts about Bruce Rauner. That will happen with any candidate, but it appears to be stronger (and firmer) this year.
Comment by Percival Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:04 am
Rich, my understanding of margin of error is different now, although I was asking this same question just last night because I wasn’t sure.
If Quinn is, let’s say, at 44.5% to a 95% degree of certainty(?), that means he could actually be as high as 47.5% but also as low as 41.5. And if Rauner is at 41%, that means he could be as high as 44 or as low as 38%
So Rauner could be as high as 44% and Quinn could be as low as 41.5%, hence they are within the margin of error.
So am I wrong? Is this analysis incorrect?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:08 am
It is obvious now, if it wasn’t in the past, that the Quinn people lay low with their major ammo until the end…then they come out shooting with the big guns.
It’s too bad that Rauner started with his jacket and Timex. It’s almost Halloween–maybe he has another costume to break-out?
As Rich mentions, there is still 3 weeks to go and we know that Rauner has at least $60M.
Comment by Belle Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:09 am
OW
“I am sure the GOTV that Rauber has, with a floating base of voters, undefined by a base that is confusing to pin down…”
I wonder is some of Rauner’s GOTV effort may end up helping Quinn. With the dramatic downturn in the popularity of Rauner over the last month, a lot of the voters Rauner’s campaign has down as plusses mave have switched to Quinn or Grimm.
Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:10 am
Gee Bruce it’s a good thing you didn’t waste that money through the summer defining yourself. PQ is helpfully doing it for you.
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:10 am
The Anonymous post at 11:08 was by me.
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:11 am
**So Rauner could be as high as 44% and Quinn could be as low as 41.5%, hence they are within the margin of error.**
Anonymous is correct, re: margin of error.
Comment by AlabamaShake Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:13 am
===Anonymous is correct===
Meh. The spread is the most important thing here.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:16 am
===I wonder is some of Rauner’s GOTV effort may end up helping Quinn. With the dramatic downturn in the popularity of Rauner over the last month, a lot of the voters Rauner’s campaign has down as plusses mave have switched to Quinn or Grimm.===
You are On It.
The Rauner Crew has no defined base of operation;
They have alienated some conservatives, they have alienated GOP stalwarts, in hopes of Dems and Indies, with no infrastructure to truly, honestly, know the voters they are dragging to the polls are indeed “Pluses”
Quinn has the Unions, Dem base operations, and field operations, centrally located, and working in concert with other groups…
It’s the Primary all over again…possibly, but Quinn is well within the 17 points Rauner lost on the street that day.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:17 am
…And this is the most important thing to consider when discussing MoE http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_08/004536.php
So, statistically speaking, a 3-point lead and a 3-point MoE means, at the 95 percent confidence level, there’s an 85 percent chance that Quinn is leading.
This is just one poll, though. It’s best to use multiple polls on stuff like this.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:21 am
=== there is still 3 weeks to go and we know that Rauner has at least $60M. ===
Someone could probably do a better Blues Brothers mash up than this:
Brucewood: There’s three weeks to go, with 3.5 points to the mansion. We’ve got a full tank of gas, $60M dollars, half a pack of cigarettes, a Carhartt and a watch.
It’s dark… and we’re wearing sunglasses.
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:23 am
I think the biggest loser this cycle will turn out to be Simon. When Quinn looked like a gone goose, she bailed on him — straight into waters way over her head. Now it’s looking like he’ll spend the next four years in Springfield, and she’ll spend the next four years in oblivion. Should’ve stayed on the ticket and tried something in 2018. Hindsight, spilled milk, and all that.
Comment by Levi Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:24 am
===It’s dark… and we’re wearing sunglasses. ===
It’s dark… and we’re wearing cheap sunglasses.
Fixed it for ya.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:25 am
I actually extrapolated the two We Ask America polls that were taken last week, in order to get a lower MoE.
Combining the two polls, you have a sample of 2,148 voters selected by the same pollster. That gives you a MoE of +/- 2.1%. Quinn leads in the combined sample, 44-40-6.
Disclaimer: Combining the two gives abit of a rough estimate, but the polls were conducted by the same firm within two days of one another.
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:36 am
- Levi - Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:24 am:
I think the biggest loser this cycle will turn out to be Simon===
Actually, I think the biggest loser this cycle is once again Lisa Madigan. Second cycle in a row where she has sat our because she’s worried about losing in a bad year. Um, General, if Quinnn could win, you surely could. I feel bad for her. She is rapidly becoming more and more irrelevant. It’s her fault though.
Comment by Try-4-Truth Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:40 am
==…this trend is a warning sign to get out what you think your best hits, and best closings are…Mr. Salesman==
Harold Washington anyone?
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:41 am
MOE is simply 1 over the square root of the number polled. If anyone thinks that really matters, then explain it to me like I’m five.
What is more important is whether the sample was randomized, percentage of cell phones, automated vs. live interviews, etc. We can’t know what effect these make, but historically We Ask America polls have a GOP bias, so it is reasonable to believe that Quinn is doing better than the recent WAA polls are showing.
Also, a GOP bias in a very Blue state probably ends up showing the GOP candidate with much more strength than he/she really has. It magnifies the bias.
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:49 am
The Harold WAshington spot showed just how clueless the cheez-kids are. I seriously doubt they knew it had been tried before.
A lot of their stuff is like that. Madigan and Blago have been done before, too.
Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:49 am
This is completely unscientific and perhaps completely off base, but I recently had to drive from St. Louis to Chicago and back on I-55. I was struck by the complete lack of Rauner signs anywhere along that route especially north of Springfield. The only place I saw Rauner’s signs was south of Springfield in Manar’s district and even then Rauner’s signs were always attached to Davis and Little signs, not stand-alone.
I’ve made that drive many times over the years during gubernatorial election years and I have NEVER seen so few signs for the GOP candidate along this route so close to the election.
Could this be an indication of a lack of fervor for Rauner among the GOP party faithful downstate? Is it an indication that Rauner does not have a groundgame downstate?
Comment by Am I Reading Too Much Into This? Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:52 am
===Harold Washington anyone?===
“Gov.” Hynes used that, Rauner has also rolled it out…
Bringing it out again isn’t going to sway any more people than it did the 1st or 2nd time, and Rauner would face even harsher backlash, going to the well again…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:54 am
===Actually, I think the biggest loser this cycle is once again Lisa Madigan.===
If she ever makes noises about running for governor again, how many people are really going to believe her?
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 11:55 am
Q: The first question is for Mr. Rauner: There has been some controversy surrounding businesses owned by your company GTCR…
A: I… I ran out of gas. I had a flat tire. I didn’t have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn’t come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts! IT WASN’T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 12:30 pm
Definitely will not be buying property in Illinois if Quinn wins. Once the court rules the pension reform unconstitutional there will be no limit to what property/income taxes will need to be raised to in order to cover pensions and expanded government.
Quinn has proved to be a very regressive governor closing his budget on the backs of the middle class rather than going all out for a progressive income tax.
Comment by Very Fed Up Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 12:43 pm
@MrJM
See, I knew someone could trump me.
Well done!
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 12:43 pm
One Timex digital watch… broken.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 12:51 pm
I hope I am wrong, but I still think this race is Rauner’s to lose. I think all this negativity is going to depress turnout. Quinn needs to get loyal Dem constituencies to the polls, and it’s an open question whether he’ll be able to. Meanwhile, the “fed up” bloc will be more motivated and will vote against Quinn.
Comment by Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 1:05 pm
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 1:05 pm:
I hope I am wrong, but I still think this race is Rauner’s to lose. I think all this negativity is going to depress turnout. Quinn needs to get loyal Dem constituencies to the polls, and it’s an open question whether he’ll be able to. Meanwhile, the “fed up” bloc will be more motivated and will vote against Quinn.====
Well, that’s one theory.
Comment by Try-4-Truth Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 1:07 pm
It’s weird that they went in the field last Wednesday, right in the middle of the NRI hearings. I’m guessing that was dictated by the Sun-Times publishing schedule but I’m still surprised that no one tried to wait a day or two. If NRI news had broke that poll would have been irrelevant by the time it was published last weekend.
- In the collars the last three polls have Quinn at 35.78%, 35.82% and 35.5%, that’s some amazing consistency. Rauner’s totals in those three polls have fluctuated between 49-54% so hopefully these results are the outcomes of a genuine process. But still what is the statistical likelihood that three polls would have Quinn’s number within 0.3% of each other? That seems noticeable.
- In 2010 the statewide Democrats did abnormally poor compared to other cycles but appeared to bounce back by 2012. Quinn’s current downstate polling numbers suggest 2010-like support levels for him (he took 34.21% in 2010). This poll has him at 28% with only 8% undecided downstate. He either needs to do something to change that dynamic and steal some Rauner votes there or he needs to hope that poll respondents who support Grimm fall out of the universe come election day otherwise it’s going to be really ugly for Quinn downstate again.
Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 1:23 pm
I still think Rauner is going to pull this off
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 4:35 pm
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 14, 14 @ 4:35 pm:
I still think Rauner is going to pull this off
Anonymous - I agree. But, I wouldn’t bet my paycheck on either one of them at this point.
This race has been extremely ugly and ruthless. Quinn is NOT well liked by the public. He’s a fairly inept Governor. Heck, he’s not even liked by Madigan or Cullerton or most of the Democrats in the legislature. He’s just the current Democratic candidate being backed by an excellent Democratic machine and benefiting from that machine. This machine can make Rauner look bad but it can’t make Quinn look good. Nothing can.
I believe the undecideds will conclude they have had enought of Quinn and will turn against him and will break for Rauner and that will be the difference.
I think when November 5 rolls around, Rauner wins a squeaker - by about a point or less.
Comment by Jechislo Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 12:33 am
I’m shocked what I’m reading here. Some people need to look around; the State of Illinois is a disaster. Avoid the commercials from both sides at all costs and just look deeply into the issues. I believe you’ll find that change is warranted, no matter which party you belong to. I’m voting against failure and for Rauner. BTW, I have NEVER voted red before, but I think this time is very different and I can no longer endorse the disaster that is our state government; time to shut Mr. Quinn’s gravy train down.
Comment by Fred Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 3:51 am