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* Before we begin, here are the requirements for passing a constitutional amendment come November…
A proposed amendment shall become effective as the amendment provides if approved by either three-fifths of those voting on the question or a majority of those voting in the election.
The math is a bit tricky because people tend to skip over those questions. But anything with over 60 percent support right now is looking good, and both proposals have that.
I’ve pulled out all of the language about registered voters on this Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll memo because I think they’re meaningless. We want to look at likely voters, so I rewrote it a bit. Also, keep in mind that this poll is ancient: September 23 through October 15. However, since there is no well-funded and active opposition to any of these questions, the responses are probably in line with current thought…
• Right to vote. Reflecting the current national debate over voting rights, respondents were asked if they favored or opposed the following provision: “No person shall be denied the right to register to vote or to cast a ballot in an election based on race, color, ethnicity, status as a member of a language minority, national origin, region, sex, sexual orientation, or income.”
Among likely voters, the results were 69.3 percent favored/strongly favored and 21.3 percent opposed/strongly opposed.
• Rights of crime victims. Respondents were asked, “Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would strengthen the Crime Victims’ Bill of Rights by increasing victims’ access to proceedings and increasing protections against harassment?”
Among the likely voters the results were 69.6 percent favored/strongly favored and 15.6 percent opposed/strongly opposed.
* The ballot questions are merely advisory, so any result over 50 will help it in the GA…
• Higher minimum wage. This question asked if voters would favor or oppose a proposal to raise the minimum wage in Illinois from $8.25 per hour to $10 per hour.
Among likely voters, 68.6 percent favored or strongly favored the proposed increase while 26.8 percent opposed or strongly opposed.
Partisan differences appeared: 89.9 percent of the Democrats favored or strongly favored while 67.0 percent of the Independents favored or strongly favored. Among likely Republican voters, 55.2 percent opposed or strongly opposed.
• Birth control: Tapping one of the most contentious political conflicts in the nation today, the respondents were asked, “Would you favor or oppose an advisory proposal to require all health insurance plans in Illinois to cover prescription birth control?”
Among likely voters, 59.3 percent strongly favored or favored while 32.6 percent opposed or strongly opposed. The most likely Democratic voters favored the measure by an 81.4 percent favor to 11.7 percent margin. The Republicans were nearly the opposite with 64.3 percent opposed or strongly opposed versus 28.1 percent who favored or strongly favored. The Independents were closer to the Democrats with 61.2 percent favorable and 33.0 percent opposed.
• Millionaire tax increase. In an attempt to measure support for the so-called “Millionaire’s Tax,” respondents were asked, “Would you favor or oppose an advisory proposal to add a 3 percent tax on all income above $1 million a year to provide additional funding to public schools?”
Among likely voters, 65 percent who favored or strongly favored and 30.2 percent opposed or strongly opposed.
83.3 percent of the Democrats favored or strongly favored the millionaire’s tax, with only 13.2 percent opposing. Two-thirds [66 percent] of the Independents favored or strongly favored, and 27.2 percent opposed. A strong majority [58.6 percent] of the Republicans opposed or strongly opposed this measure while only 36.2 percent of the Republicans most likely to vote favored or strongly favored.)
691 interviews with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:18 pm
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Does the failure of a voter to complete the portion of the ballot concerning amendments act as a “NO” vote?
Comment by Under Further Review Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:27 pm
Is this Madigan trying to justify his ballot initiative program?
Comment by Anonny Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:31 pm
I voted yes for all of the questions here and am glad to see that there is strong support for the millionaire tax. It doesn’t surprise me that lots of people think the wealthy should bear a little more of the tax burden. It would help.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:37 pm
I think the millionaires tax question would pass with 100% yes if there was a way to actually isolate the revenue from such and make certain it goes to education. How could anyone say no to more education funding. The problem is so many voters just don’t trust what the GA will do with additional funding.
Comment by allknowingmasterofracoondom Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:39 pm
My issue with the millionaire’s tax is that it feels like a reactionary political ploy instead of being a well thought out plan. If they can propose an additional 3% tax, why not 5%, or 15%? $700,000 is pretty close to $1M, why not lower the cutoff to $700,000? It’s a slippery slope and I fear most voters will be OK with arbitrarily getting the pitchforks out instead of voting for more responsible leadership.
Comment by scurvydog Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:48 pm
I had no idea what a yes vote for the Crime Victims Bill of Rights meant, so I left it blank.
By the time I got to the Madigan questions, I voted no, just out of spite. The ballot was long enough, and I was mildly annoyed he added to the length of an already too long ballot. Both non-binding measures should pass easily, but there is a tiny chance others feel the same way I do and it could backfire.
Comment by ChrisB Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 5:28 pm
The illinois chamber poll said the millionaire tax was losing.
Comment by 1776 Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 5:49 pm
The millionaire tax certainly does not affect me but it is a very silly, silly idea. “Scurvydog” makes many good points.
And no one with a lick of common sense believes this will go to education- or at least for more than one or two years. One way or another it goes to the general pot and the politicians will divide it up and spend it as they will.
Comment by Federalist Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 6:50 pm
The great differences between Democrats and Republicans on these questions are astonishing to me. There was never such a vast ideological difference between the parties in the past, in which there were many more liberal to moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats. It is very interesting that Independents are closer on every polled issue to the majority Democratic position. When all three groups are considered together, the hard Republicans clearly represent a minority viewpoint removed from the mainstream. This is true whether the issue is birth control, minimum wage, or millionaires’ tax, in other words, on both social and economic issues. In view of their great distinctiveness, hard Republicans are becoming almost a minority sect in American life, akin in some ways to the Amish, though of course vastly more numerous.
Comment by Quiet Sage Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 10:11 pm