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* From Scott Kennedy’s updates last night on the state treasurer’s race…
The most surprising news of the day came in the collar counties. In the 5 traditional collar counties overall Cross beat Frerichs 57%-38%. I expected that the updates in the 5 collar counties would give Cross the net gains he would need to keep this race close. That was not the case.
We haven’t had a public update in McHenry County since 11/5 and did not get one so far today. DuPage had a large public update on 11/5 as well, both producing large margins for Cross. However in today’s updates it was Frerichs who came out with a net gain in Lake and Will (472 and 376 votes respectively) while Cross’ net gain today in DuPage was only 48 votes. The Kane County part outside of Aurora updated last night Cross gained 215 votes while the Aurora election authority update today gave a net gain to Frerichs of 235 votes. In these most recent collar county updates it was Frerichs who had a net gain, when I was expecting a large net gain for Tom Cross.
In the overall statewide vote the 5 collar counties made up 25% of the vote in this race, while the Cook County suburbs made up 19% of the total vote. Cross needed gains in the collar counties to blunt the gains by Frerichs in Cook County and what is expected in Chicago. Unless McHenry comes in with a very large update, that didn’t happen.
After Cook County’s numbers came in, Frerichs picked up another 2,263 net votes. The final coffin nail came from Chicago…
The Chicago numbers came in just before 9pm and as expected it boosted Frerichs lead by over 6,000 votes. I did a complete check of all the election authorities again and the only other update was Marion County. On my tracker I still have not yet confirmed the final totals for 50 of the state’s 110 election authorities. Of that number 14 don’t have websites and the other 36 just haven’t updated their websites yet with final totals.
The current margin is Frerichs by 9,439 votes.
Consider this race called for Frerichs.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:09 am
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Would like to see comparison of totals with Rutherford in 2010. Even with no coattails from Brady at top of ticket, he managed to pick up the open seat.
Comment by Put the Fun in unfunded Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:13 am
Wow, photo finish. Tough race, but great result for a great guy. I have a lot of faith that Mike will make a great treasurer!
Only question left now is how long will Cross drag it out…
Comment by Law Dude Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:17 am
What happened in the Treasurer’s race? Cross blew it. His boy Rauner was spending loads of dough and there was a GOP wave which cost two Dem Congresspeople their seats but they still couldn’t take advantage.
I mean, seriously. A guy with a name like Cross from the collar counties vs. a guy named Frerichs from downstate? Hello?OW had been commenting on the missteps by Frerichs in the months before but they got it together by election day and that’s all that matters.
Awesome job specifically by Team Frerichs and IL Democrats as a whole.
Comment by low level Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:33 am
Very surprising in the collars. Cross seemed to run a better campaign.
Maybe Cross was seen as among those who had caused historical problems in the state. He couldn’t distance himself from his House role. Frerichs is a fresher face, almost unknown in the suburbs.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:37 am
Congrats Mike. Can’t wait for Kirk, and Quinlan’s take on this.
Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:38 am
I’m not convinced yet “Cross blew it.” What this indicates to me is what the IL House results show - the GOP brand in Illinois, at least north of I-80, is still -very- weak, wounded mostly I’m guessing by IL perceptions of the GOP in Washington DC.
Rauner (and Dold) managed to de-brand themselves from the GOP but they had a ton of money to do so and plenty of friendly help from third-party validators like the Tribune. You had a lot of Dems voting Rauner / Frerichs, enough to cost Cross the race.
I’m no expert here but at the baseline, I’m not convinced here that Cross did something so terribly wrong.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:41 am
Pretty hard to claim that any irregularities in the ballot handling would account for this margin. Tom should probably concede. We shall see.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:41 am
Tom Cross is a nice guy but he followed the wrong path when he suddenly tried to be everything to everybody after deciding to run for a state-wide elected office. He quickly lost more votes from his own GOP conservative base than he gained from trying to appease the liberals. Tom took one step forward but two steps back. He chose poorly and shot himself in the foot on this ill-conceived political strategy.
He is a nice guy and is well-liked by Democrats as well as Republicans down in Springfield. He will be given or appointed to some taxpayer funded state job to tide him over until the next election cycle.
Comment by Coffee Cup Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:44 am
It’ll be hard for the GOP to blame “the crooks” in Chicago/Cook County since Frerichs was up before those votes were even counted. Of course I’m sure they’ll try.
Comment by k3 Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:44 am
Let’s consider the civil campaign run by Frerichs and the engaging ads that were positive, not the dreadful sounding trash given by other candidates, Democratic and Republican alike. And I for one am glad to see a “downstater” win.
Comment by Signature gatherer Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:46 am
Agreed that the collar county results tell the story here, particularly in Will. Unless you have a popular Republican incumbent (JBT) or a very weak Democratic incumbent (PQ) Republicans are hard pressed to win a statewide race straight up.
Comment by Stones Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:46 am
Cross (the suburban moderate) had lower percentages in Cook and all the collars than Rutherford (the downstater) in 2010: 2.9% lower in DuPage, 2.7% in Lake, 2.3% in Cook (incl. Chicago), 2.0% in McHenry, 1.3% in Kane, 0.1% in Will. Frerichs won despite getting fewer votes out of Cook than R.Kelly did in 2010. Cross crew may try to claim Cross lost support because of his vote for SSM, yet he did better percentage wise than Rutherford in many conservative downstate counties. Maybe he was just a bad candidate.
Comment by Put the Fun in unfunded Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:49 am
I shed no tears for former Leader Cross. He was good at recruiting candidates, but he could not raise the necessary funds to compete and his staff seemed to drop the ball on several occasions. Governor-elect Rauner will likely prop him in some capacity.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:51 am
From my personal experience with Cross and rank and file GOP, there wasn’t much love for him. His complete failure to make races in the House competitive, lack of candindate recruitment effort, his driving HGOP funds in massive amounts to his “buddies” while stiffing those struggling to compete, not to mention his support of gay marriage to rankle social conservatives, earned him enemies as well as a lot of indifference amongst GOP voters.
He’s pretty much relied on Hastert (his old wrestling coach)coattails to get him what wanted, and Hastert doesn’t really have that much political clout with voters anymore.
Let’s hope Cross leaves statewide politics and cashes in with all those patronage driven deals he gets as “payback” for services rendered during his elected tenure.
The only consequence here is a lot of Rutherford’s patronage staff are going to have to look for honest work now.
Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:51 am
Not to worry tom I heard the golfing is still good in florida
Comment by foster brooks Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 9:54 am
At the end of the day, I think Frerichs’ commercials playing on his height pushed him over the top. It was welcome relief with the sledgehammers being thrown elsewhere. Believe, me, it pains me to give him any credit.
In the end, the business community and moderate Republicans like Gidwitz, Baise, et al, will be sorry they didn’t step up better for Tom. There is no one more ruthlessly ambitious than Frerichs, and no end to his self-promotion.
I have no doubt the Frerichs for Secretary of State campaign begins in earnest today.
Comment by LincolnLounger Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:01 am
I knew I was wrong when the Lake county update came in
Comment by steve schnorf Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:12 am
One thing I’ve learned watching recounts from near and afar since 2000 presidential election:
Marginal voters break Democrat almost 100% of the time, even in Republican jurisdictions.
One of the things that’s unforgivable about Al Gore’s campaign and the legal team he assembled (including Bill Daley) is that they didn’t know this basic fact.
To me it’s amazing that Al Gore had access to the best minds in the Democratic Party and somehow this basic fact didn’t penetrate Gore’s inner circle.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:13 am
I would really like to see the vote total difference for Quinn/Rauner and Frerichs/Cross in Illinois by county.
The way the votes came in yesterday, it seemed Frerichs won downstate, the collar counties, than Cook. The way this played also made Sen. Kirk look like a pawn, not a good start for his next two years.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:14 am
All the marbles were at the top of the ticket and in regional contests where loud and big fights were taking place. Who really knows? It looks like a lot of Dems and Dem leaners voted for Rauner and reverted back to party as they worked their way down. I will say this race was an afterthought in general, but Mr. Cross did not pound the daylights out of his base areas. It’s close enough that anything could have made a difference. Congratulations to the Treasurer-Elect.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:19 am
===- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 2, 14 @ 12:34 pm
…
The Cross campaign is more critical than the Rauner campaign in my mind, and here’s why;
…
Rauner wins, Cross loses?
Rauner had the SGOP, Rauner has Durkin’s ear, maybe not his soul, Sen. Kirk is already in the Rauner Camp.===
Macro-Micro to Rauner and the GA races, Cross got caught in the jet wash that Comptroller Topinka was able to fight off.
…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:31 am
Makes the Rauner win that more impressive. There were Dem voters way down the ballot who didn’t go for Quinn.
Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:41 am
Sorry O’Willy: you lost me in your jet wash.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:43 am
McHenry the last of the collars updated its count this morning. Cross gained 128. No where near enough to change the output. The fat lady has sung on this one.
Comment by train111 Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:51 am
Kirk should consider himself a lame duck. He’s going to lose big time.
Comment by Mittuns Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:52 am
Here’s a serious question: Did Cross’ support of gay marriage result in a net gain or a net loss?
It’s hard to imagine that conservative republicans would vote for Frerichs — I think they’d be more likely to undervote or vote Libertarian.
Thoughts?
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:58 am
Soccermom: per the numbers I posted above, Cross underperformed Rutherford in the collars, yet actually got a higher percentage in very socially conservative counties like Effingham and Fayette. I have no doubt that some conservatives did not support him because of SSM, but I am not sure in the end if it made as much of a difference as partisans on both sides of that issue are going to claim.
Comment by Put the Fun in unfunded Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:08 am
- walker -
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 10:16 am
What a great headline to this post;
Rauner got it right.
Rauner.
Let’s be clear on two trains, two separate tracks. While the SGOP picked off a seat, surrounded by Democratic wins, the reality of the HGOP was used as I had thought they would be; it was never about HGOP gains, Rauner hoped for just one to change the dynamic.
In theory, one flipping as a bi-product never happened.
As Bruce was closing statewide margins (macro) the districts, very specifically, needed micro management, a MJM specialty.
It’s not that Rauner had zero coattails, no. It was about looking at one state with 118 ingredients, including demographics, versus winning district after district because the overall message worked on the districts too.
It didn’t.
Losing a district by less than last time is awesome for Rauner, but still a loss for the HGOP.
Rauner was about Rauner. Can’t fault him. Not one bit, good on them. But that focus isn’t the best way to get House seats in the micro.
A loss is a loss in the House races.
So, to the Post,
Rauner did get it right. Got it right for Rauner.
Ask the HGOP how that translated to the micro districts.
It didn’t.===
To you, - walker -,
While Rauner and his Crew focused on Rauner, the jet wash of that macro resulted in House loses, 1 Senate pick-up, and Comptroller Topinka far closer to Sheika than I ever thought.
Rauner sucked the air out if all the other races, Cross was out there like the IL House and Senate races, and lost it as residue of Rauner owning the cycle, and they won for him, leaving the ILGOP loses in that wake.
It wasn’t that there wasn’t coattails, even for Cross;
It was never implemented for coattails. Cross is finding that out now.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:09 am
I am treading lightly…until the Cross Crew decides how they want to …”approach”… the 9,000 vote deficit before I really comment on any post-mortem.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:22 am
Frerichs said he would release the Braver report if elected. Wonder how soon he does that?
Comment by Lost in Chicago Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:25 am
On Peoria TV, Frerichs played his “Tall Man” commercial, but I didn’t see anything for Cross at all. For those of us who don’t follow the GA that closely, Frerichs seemed to have good credentials and ran a positive ad.
You can’t vote for ‘em if you don’t know who they are.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:42 am
Agree with Streator-saw plenty of tall man commercials on Decatur and Springfield, but few for Cross, and they were boring…
Comment by downstate commissioner Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:54 am
This has been an unusual ending for the race - kinda like ending with a whimper. Now we get the theatrics involving fraud allegations as we deal with a recount effort.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:56 am
SC - you are correct. Which is why earlier comments about the GOP money folks not being more involved in this race is mind-boggling. Tom Cross has some built-in name ID from his days as Leader but that only goes so far in 2014.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:56 am
Oops, I see Cross has conceded. No theatrics.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:57 am
Sorry, PTFIU — I missed your previous post.
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 12:26 pm
To SoccerMom - I’m a conservative in Cross’ district. I voted for the Democrat. First time in my life voting D. Reason? We need a cleaner, honest GOP in IL. Cross wasn’t honest & wasn’t an R. Ridding ourselves of him now saves us a lot of time down the road for a Gov primary which he would have undoubtedly entered. So, my vote wasn’t for the Dem, it was against Cross.
Comment by Nikkyname Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 12:48 pm
==Cross wasn’t honest & wasn’t an R==
And you think he’s not an “R” because? Part of the purity police are we?
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 12:52 pm
===steve schnorf - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:12 am:
I knew I was wrong when the Lake county update came in===
You’re entitled to one mistake every 70 years.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 1:24 pm
In my view, Cross might have won had he not pushed so hard on a promise to go to court to force the State to pass a budget he would find balanced. Even though he would likely have no standing to do so, he could make a big media splash. I and others like me are tired of constant obstructionist politicians. We want more positive, constructive compromising and less gratuitous, negative grandstanding.
Comment by Big Bob Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 2:00 pm
Maybe a lesson for Democrats; Frerichs, who got into the Senate by flipping a 70-year Republican seat by talking about . . . gasp . . . policy, then gets totally cold-shouldered by the Chicago machine, which hitches its wagon to Pat Quinn, who spins out as a result of administrative inexperience and backtracking on his own values, while Frerichs wins despite total organization neglect/hostility, no Chicago metro name-recognition, an awful top-of-the-ticket Democratic year, and the TV ad equivalent of total war from Rauner . . . . perhaps this is one more data point indicating that it’s time for tribal, organization politics to take a break, and for something recognizably progressive to take its place.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 2:59 pm
Kinda miss the tote board in the corner. #nostalgia
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 3:59 pm
Tom Cross, thanks for your service.
More time to play golf with Oswego Willy.
Comment by Jake From Elwood Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 6:37 pm
-Jake From Elwood -,
If Cross or Artl ever ask, I’ll let you know.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 7:29 pm
As sick as I am Frerichs won, Republicans who’ve talked to me didn’t vote for Cross in either the primary or the general.
Comment by T.J. Friday, Nov 21, 14 @ 12:34 am