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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Daniel Biss appears to be the first Democrat to actively float his name for the 2016 special election for state comptroller.
The state senator from Evanston is known as a policy wonk around the statehouse, but he’s also a prodigious fundraiser, ending the fourth quarter with $721,000 in the bank.
The special election law was passed by the General Assembly in early January—just weeks after the death of Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka. Former Gov. Pat Quinn signed it into law on his way out the door.
If the new law is upheld by the courts (which seems likely, but not 100 percent certain), Gov. Bruce Rauner’s appointment to the post, Leslie Munger, will have to stand for election in a presidential election year.
Since the days of President Bill Clinton, Republicans have been at a distinct disadvantage during presidential election years. No Republican presidential candidate has won this state since 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis 51 percent to 49 percent. Back then, Illinois was considered a “bellwether” state for presidential campaigns. No longer.
Anyway, Biss would first have to survive the Democratic primary. And although no other candidates have yet floated their names, it’s expected that we will see some interest (there’s even some talk that Quinn might be interested).
Biss pushed hard for state worker pension reform when he was in the House and then again after he moved to the Senate. That hasn’t endeared him to labor unions, although I’m told he’s been attempting to reach out to the unions to try and smooth things over. Biss ran unopposed for the Senate last year, so the Illinois AFL-CIO took no position on his nonexistent campaign.
Meanwhile, state Sen. Napoleon Harris, D-Flossmoor, has been eyeing a move up the political ladder almost as soon as he won the 2012 primary to replace the retiring incumbent Rev. James Meeks.
Harris expressed strong interest in running for the U.S. House seat vacated by the disgraced incumbent Jesse Jackson, Jr., but wound up bowing out. Now, Harris is looking at a possible U.S. Senate bid.
Harris is a former NFL football player. Many of his former teammates have plenty of extra cash, which gives Harris a natural fundraising base.
He is also a successful businessman in his own right, a Beggars Pizza franchise owner in the south suburbs.
He is the first state legislator to express a strong interest in the Senate race. All of the other possible candidates mentioned so far are members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
One of those representatives expressing interest in running for Senate is Robin Kelly, who ended up winning the 2013 special election to replace Jackson, with Harris’ eventual endorsement. If both she and Harris end up running for Senate, that would mean two African-Americans from the south suburbs would be competing in the Democratic primary. Kelly would have to give up her House seat to run, but Harris just started a four-year term.
Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk has a moderate (for Washington, D.C.) voting record. Kirk will also have strong support—financial and otherwise—from the majority Republicans in the Senate if he runs, which appears likely at this moment. And Kirk will benefit from a newly rebuilt party infrastructure, courtesy of Rauner’s gubernatorial campaign, and from Rauner’s super-wealthy contributor network. Kirk, himself, also has built an impressive fundraising network of staunch Israel supporters.
Even so, no Republican U.S. Senate candidate has won Illinois during a presidential year since Charles Percy was re-elected way back in 1972. President Richard Nixon absolutely stomped Democrat George McGovern that year here by 19 points. Even so, the Democrats won back the governor’s office.
The last Republican U.S. Senator from Illinois, Peter Fitzgerald, declined to run in the 2004 election, when George W. Bush lost the state by ten points. And the average Democratic presidential winning margin in Illinois since 1992 is over 16 points. Yes, Barack Obama pumped up that average, but they all won by double digits.
Even so, it’s not an impossible task for Kirk. He could actually run to the left of Sen. Harris on some social issues if the legislator manages to survive the primary. Harris voted “present” on the gay marriage bill, for instance. Kirk favors the “liberal” side of that position.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:27 am
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Someone educate me: has Napoleon Harris one anything of substance since he was elected? I hear he has a roadmap to follow in another former African-American state senator’s footsteps. If you want to do that, I think you have to have some sort of track record to run on, not just access to money (no Rauner digs, please).
Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:40 am
And Kirk is definitely to the left of Harris, who is anti-gay marriage and anti-choice. That’s another reason I don’t see Harris getting out of the primary. And Kelly’s anti-gun position will be tough to swallow downstate, even though her base supporters love her.
Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:44 am
If sen. Blah would support blah and then blah would have to support blah and blah would really be blah. Or we could just start electing real leaders in Illinois.
Comment by William j Kelly Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:46 am
I like the idea of Daniel Biss as Controller. But I thought that he wanted to be Jan Schakowsky’s natural successor…
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:50 am
Nixon beat McGovern in ‘72; the same year Percy was re-elected.
Comment by Phoenix Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:54 am
The Munger race is far more fascinating, for me, than Kirk facing voters in his primary and general elections.
Why?
Munger is conpletely untested, but has inherited a Crew that is ridiculously well-seasoned and more than capable to overcome a novice “incumbent statewide candidate”.
Fascinating.
That’s a race, no matter who Munger gets in the draw, that will be the most “fun”, hardest in gettibg attention and message out there, and with Rauner, most assuredly, being the Munger piggy bank, how “great” of a challenge will the Munger Crew overcome, as she grows into the job, and into a statewide, legitimate, player.
The Crew Munger inherited, the monies all but guaranteed to Munger, incumbency,..going to be the better of the races cited.
I seriously hope that Comptroller Munger realizes what she has withbthat Crew she’s got, and she listens and learns that they are there to help, so take their help, and work real hard because I know they will be workibg real hard for her.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:57 am
I wouldn’t count on too much money from former football teammates.
Out of the four major pro team sports, the average football career is way short and the least lucrative.
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 10:00 am
Why rooooock the booooooat and look like a dooooope?! Blah4blah2016.com
Comment by William j Kelly Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 10:04 am
Willy are you speaking of Rauners campaign staff she inherited or the comptroller staff?
Comment by Du page Dan Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 10:06 am
The Comptroller Crew she inherited and the dual roles some take on there.
Nancy Kinme staying on board… that was huge.
You start there, see how many major cogs stay with Munger and Kimme, that is a solid base of operation forca “novice statewide incumbent”.
That Crew goes about their business to win races and govern well while doing it. Huge leg up for Munger.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 10:12 am
RPM:
9th CD is a sloooow moving line
3 Reps since 1949
Comment by LizPhairTax Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 11:10 am
I am not so sure that Mark Kirk will seek re-election. I know, he said he is . . . but.
Comment by MrGrassroots Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 11:16 am
Biss as Comptroller would be a waste of talent. More time in the GA would better prepare him for any step up.
Comment by Anon III Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 12:09 pm
I believe the following individuals will seek to unseat Mark Kirk. Doug Truax, Joe Walsh, and possibly Kirk Dillard.
Comment by Raunerbot Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 12:10 pm
=== Doug Truax, Joe Walsh, and possibly Kirk Dillard. ===
lol
And?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 12:13 pm
Kirk Dillard?
Rauner money - 1, Dilkard - 0
Joe Walsh?
Radio has been good to me so far…
Traux?
Griffin and Rauner make a good backstop to Right Wing cash.
So…the only real issue is the bummer Mark Kirk might face spending on an unnecessary Primary.
Once Rauner won, the dynamic changed.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 12:18 pm
===Once Rauner won, the dynamic changed. ===
Meh. The dynamic hasn’t changed forever. When was the last time a sitting statewide Republican lost a primary?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 12:19 pm
=== ===Once Rauner won, the dynamic changed. ===
Meh. The dynamic hasn’t changed forever. When was the last time a sitting statewide Republican lost a primary?===
You are right about that…
The thought that the Right can try to out spend against a vulnerable Mark Kirk disappeared.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 12:22 pm
It makes sense for both Biss and Harris to take a shot, in that both spots come up midterm, giving them little to lose. Biss has plenty of $ and his background as a mathmetician makes comptroller a natural rung up the ladder for him. Maybe the public employee unions take him on over pensions, but will they want to throw a couple million dollars at primary for a post they don’t really care about?
Harris’s path is a little tougher to figure than Biss’s. He would likely need a crowded field that does not include Robin Kelly. He has a great personal story, but as Archiesmom points out above, Harris hasn’t really set Springfield on fire. That’s probably unfair to a member who’s only been in town two years, but a legit knock if he’s looking to move up.
Comment by Momo Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 12:56 pm
Harris has another little issue - residency (for the state senate seat). He says lives in Matteson, in district. But as the Trib has pointed out, his real home is in Flossmoor, out of district. Just a small honesty wrinkle.
Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 1:25 pm
My guess is the DCCC tries to talk Duckworth, Foster and Busto to stay put. Those seats are not 100% safe Dem. It seems Durbin is pushing Duckworth so she might just pull the trigger anyway. Kelly on the other hand is in a solid Dem seat and DCCC wouldn’t care. Whoever wins the Dem primary should win the seat. Another guess is that Harris is throwing his name out there for Senator but is just posturing for Robins seat.
Comment by Been There Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 1:46 pm
“No republican has won…..”
Untill they did
Gop had a bad run at gov job in illinois, untill they won.
That said if hillary is at the top of the ticket nationally and continues to poll well; well to quote mcgruff the crime dog, its gonna be “ruff”
Comment by Ghost Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 1:49 pm
===Untill they did
Gop had a bad run at gov job in illinois===
Oh, come on. The GOP had a bad run, sure, but no statewide GOP incumbent has lost a primary since… I don’t think ever. Big difference. You’re dreaming if you think the right can take out Kirk. He could win that primary without leaving DC.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 1:51 pm
Look who is running! http://youtu.be/IlgTstZlk5E
Comment by William j Kelly Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 2:10 pm
Of course Napoleon Harris. Guy hadn’t even served a day before he wanted to run for Congress. Still hasn’t done anything substantial. Move along.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 3:21 pm
I mostly agree with Rich on Kirk being primary proof. One of the hardest things to do in politics is beat an incumbent in a primary, no matter the office. But this ain’t your father’s GOP. The activists on the right are more influential than they’ve ever been. If the GOP presidential contest is completely settled by March, a well-financed, well organized conservative might be able to take advantage of a low-turn out primary and give Kirk a scare. Again, I would not bet against Kirk, especially with Rauner having his back. But in today’s GOP, It’s hard to say that any pro-choice, pro-gay rights incumbent’s renomination is 100 percent secured.
Comment by Momo Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 3:43 pm
===The activists on the right are more influential than they’ve ever been===
Elsewhere, maybe, but not here.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 3:46 pm
== Elsewhere, maybe, but not here. ===
Ask Sandy Pihos and (almost)Ron Sandack. I know, statewide is a different ballgame and Kirk’s would be opponent will not be able to match him financially the way Pihos and Sandack’s opponents did. Kirk is a huge favorite, but never say never.
Comment by Momo Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 8:12 pm
- Momo -
Pihos and Sandack’s opponents …
They were funded by Griffin, who’s with Rauner, who is with Mark Kirk. Get it?
No piggy bank.
Look how Sandack is Rauner’s #1 guy; it’s fear, not love. Fear of Uihline.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 8:18 pm
My apologies.
“They were funded by Uihline, who’s with Rauner, who is with Mark Kirk. Get it?”
Thinking too fast for my typing.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 8:19 pm
Speaking of Ron Sandack, take note of his new BFF:
https://www.facebook.com/RonSandack/posts/1038545292838636
Comment by Fake Robert Breuder Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:01 pm
Oswego, great points, you are right, the challenger to Kirk would have to be a real reformer who is not afraid to stand up to rauner and Uline.. Hmm… But where would we find such a person?
Comment by William j Kelly Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:23 pm
– Willy –
I get it. Re-read my post, I mentioned the funding issue. But I’ll go out on a huge limb here and suggest there just might be more than one deep pocketed conservative contributor in America.
Comment by Momo Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 9:52 pm
===But I’ll go out on a huge limb here and suggest there just might be more than one deep pocketed conservative contributor in America.===
…who wants to cross Griffin AND Uhiline AND Governor Rauner…all members of the deep pockets club…and…thinks they can fund a winning GOP primary challenge, in Illinois, running right, against an incumbent…
Not too likely.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 2, 15 @ 10:04 pm