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* Sen. Mark Kirk had a very good fourth quarter…
Kirk raised $621,998 in the quarter that ended Dec. 31, more than twice what he pulled in during the third quarter and a sign that he is serious when he says he expects to run for re-election next year.
A copy of Kirk’s campaign disclosure form is not yet available, but a source familiar with it says it includes donations from 500 individuals and 120 political action committees and other groups. With the new money, the senator will have just over $2 million on hand in his campaign bank account.
Kirk certainly will have to raise a ton more. Insiders expect the 2016 race to cost well over $10 million, and perhaps twice that figure if he faces a top challenge in the GOP primary. But $2 million is certainly a nice place to be more than a year before anyone votes.
* He’s gonna need it and more. National Journal just released its poll of DC “insiders” and Kirk was rated as the second-most vulnerable Senator by both Democrats (26 percent, compared to 27 for Harry Reid) and Republicans (25 percent, compared to 42 for Reid). Comments by some of the Democratic insiders…
“Navy blue state, presidential year, Illinois native at the top of the Dem ticket. Good luck with that, Mark.”
“Illinois presidential turnout is going to make Kirk’s reelection really tough.”
“Recently embarrassed himself on climate change. If he continues to act like he shouldn’t be there, he won’t be.”
“If [Democratic Rep. Tammy] Duckworth runs, Kirk’s No. 1 out the door.”
From the Republicans…
“Illinois, presidential year, health concerns—doesn’t get much worse than that.”
I’m still not convinced that he’s a goner. Having a wealthy Republican governor adds a different dimension to state politics here. But if Rauner’s numbers tank, and Hillary does as well as expected here, and Kirk draws a strong opponent, then, yeah, he’s got his work cut out for him.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:11 am
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He’s a goner in my view. It’s not your year, kid.
Comment by Joe Biden Was Here Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:22 am
I just don’t get this line of if Duckworth runs, Kirk’s a goner. I’m a Dem, and I’d vote Kirk ahead of Duckworth. It just isn’t clear to me what Duckworth has accomplished in Congress. She is military hero who has sacrificed much, no question. But that doesn’t mean she should be the US Senator from one of the most popuolous states. Kirk did quite a bit in congress prior to his jump to the senate.
Comment by Niles Township Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:22 am
Let me see what kind of Crew that Kirk can put together to run, then I assess the chances better than now.
Now? The challenges outweigh the assets, today, but monies and support from the wealthy governor is closing the gap ridiculously quickly in figuring out odds.
Out of staters who look at just numbers and national trends without factoring in local knowledge and an understanding of the dynamic of Illinois politics make me giggle. I would say laugh, but that means they have more credibility than I am willing to give.
Munger’s run is still more fascinating to me, but “to the Post”, it’s far too early, for me, without the variables, to count Kirk out.
Will be fun to see that Crew run that race.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:29 am
Not impressed with that fundraising quarter number. The old Kirk raised more than this when he was in the House and as a candidate for Senate. A sitting Senator in cycle for the fight of his life should have more cash on hand and be raising more per quarter. Makes me ask - how serious is Senator Kirk about running?
Comment by Anon Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:34 am
2014 really set Kirk up to fail. He stands to be an outlet for voters’ inevitable anger against Rauner. Senate Republicans taking the majority puts him in an even worse spot, because he’s not longer a say he’s a bringer of balance. The DSCC will be able to portray him as someone who talks like a moderate at home but serves a right-wing majority leader in DC. I doubt he’s been able to build enough good will statewide to withstand the tidal wave he’s facing. If his opponent is even a slightly better candidate than Alexi, November 8, 2016 could be an early but sad night for Kirk.
Comment by Nope, Nope, Nope Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:35 am
He’s not a goner, but it’s a tough race. I’m not sure Rauner will be much of an asset (unless he’s a very successful governor). He’s already demonstrated that while he essentially HAS unlimited money, he won’t actually spend it, and he’ll obviously prioritize the GA in 2016. I’m not convinced that he’ll just underwrite Kirk’s whole campaign.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:36 am
But he might!
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:37 am
===if Rauner’s numbers tank, and Hillary does as well as expected here,===
Big If’s. And a lot of time before the gate opens. An eternity in political time.
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:39 am
I don’t think Kirk can be labeled a goner.
I wonder what impact his stroke will have on the election? People questioning his ability to be an active Sen. or people still sympathizing with him?
Comment by Just Observing Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:44 am
If the opponent is Duckworth, I think he wins relatively easily.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:44 am
@Nope, Nope, Nope
do you get outside your hugebox? The average voter is really excited for Rauner and the press he’s been decidedly positive. He’s a much stronger personality than Quinn and has a plan (that you might disagree with) for the future of the state. Something many voters have felt that the state government has been lacking.
He’s not going to screw up this year, as everything bad this year will be Quinns fault.
He’s not going to screw up next year, because everything bad will be ‘a tough choice he had to make to make sure the state doesn’t go bankrupt’.
He has an optics out for everything. So, unless he gets caught making a deal that will benefit him and only him, not he’s not going to have a low approval rating by election time next year.
Comment by anon Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:47 am
Hillary will not cruise into Illinois without any scars from a heated primary on that side. When she decided where to run for the Senate, dear old Illinois was well behind NY and Arkansas. She’s formidable. She’s not mythical. She ain’t Bill and she ain’t Barack. I don’t doubt for a second that she’ll win her own primary here. Coattails; way too early to tell.
Oddly, Kirk might diminish her here more than she diminishes him. Odder things have happened.
Tammy? Love her personally. Cheer for her. Pray for her. But not in the political world. This is a mission she’d be wise not to accept. Giving up an ultra safe seat to campaign like you need to campaign in an Illinois Statewide would be very difficult.
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:47 am
That Bush/Rauner ticket in 2016 though…
Comment by LizPhairTax Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:48 am
Niles, in recent years, what has anyone in Congress accomplished?
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 11:49 am
kirk has shown from the beginning that people shouldn’t count him out. but it is an open question how his health will play out. and whether conservative republican voters will bite the bullet to keep one of their own in the senate…
Comment by bored now Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 12:02 pm
@Anon 11:47
As much as Rauner and his apologists will try to spin everything so it’s Quinn’s fault or Madigan’s fault, or labor’s fault, or “tough decisions,” there’s an expiration date on blame politics. When you’re a Republican governor in a Democratic state, that dates comes even faster. Rauner has clearly impressed you a great deal, he should probably even pay you to be on his communications team, but a huge chunk of those voters who backed Rauner reservations (of whom I am one) or stayed home because Quinn couldn’t fix the state’s problems will also turn on Rauner when he can’t fix them either.
When Rauner is wearing the jacket for slashing programs and slow walking the minimum wage, while raising regressive gas and sales taxes, we’ll see how well planned out all his optics are.
Comment by Nope, Nope, Nope Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 12:04 pm
Kirk ran six years ago as very moderate from a swing district. This time it will be about his votes in the Senate. I believe the record will speak for its self. He appears to be much more conservative now; will it sink him I really don’t think it will. It will make his campaign harder.
Comment by Annon3 Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 12:16 pm
“Hillary will not cruise into Illinois without any scars from a heated primary on that side.”
It really looks like she will, in fact.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 12:57 pm
Wow..wayyy too early… Duckworth will have to craft a strategy based on results…. That is either so short or non existent. War hero absolutely.
Comment by Walter Mitty Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 1:47 pm
=== Arsenal - Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 12:57 pm:
“Hillary will not cruise into Illinois without any scars from a heated primary on that side.”
It really looks like she will, in fact.===
To do that she’d have to be unopposed. We’ll see.
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 1:54 pm
“Recently embarrassed himself on climate change.”
Kirk voted in favor of the long delayed Keystone Pipeline along with sixty-one other Senators to the Democratic insiders? The final vote tally was bipartisan.
Is that embarrassing?
Comment by Under Further Review Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 2:22 pm
The Senator needs to take my advice.
He needs to start filling our digital world with his accomplishments. He needs to copy his Democratic buddy, Dick Durbin and pump out communication showing how he has been an asset to Illinois.
Once he resells Illinoisans on the idea that they made the right choice six years ago, he can win their approval for a second time.
And - I thought Hillary was inevitable seven years ago - what happened? She is calling herself a “grandma” now. You think voters are going to want to do battle with ISIS with “Grandma Clinton”? If Grandma did her job when she was Secretary of State, there wouldn’t even be an ISIS lopping off heads, selling children and burning POWs alive.
She isn’t nominated yet folks, and I have real wonderings about her once-again inevitability.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 2:24 pm
I just don’t buy Duckworth beating Kirk especially if he doesn’t have to spend a bunch of dough in the primary and doesn’t have to tack too far right to get through the primary.
And what viable and credible potential challenger is out there who could raise the cash to beat him in the primary? I just don’t see it.
The general election is another matter, though. Again, if it’s Duckworth I see Kirk beating her. Same with Foster. Bustos I can see maybe beating Kirk, but why risk her safe Congressional seat? I don’t see Robin Kelly risking her seat nor do I see her beating him.
Napolean Harris I don’t see making it through the Dem primary with his “conservative” views on abortion and marriage equality. With those views and Hillary on the ticket he just can’t get the votes he needs in the primary plus his views will cut him off from many traditional progressive Democratic big money donors.
I can see Kwame Raoul raising the dough to beat Kirk and I can see him having what it takes to beat Kirk statewide especially if the Dem presidential candidate runs strong here.
Other than the foregoing and maybe Manar (who I see running for comptroller instead) who do you see as a viable Dem candidate against Kirk?
Comment by Enough Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 2:51 pm
Vmans right about Hillary’s “inevitability.”
She was inevitable last time, ran a terrible campaign and lost a sqeaker.
Like last time, it will come down to Hilary and a not-Hilary.
Club for Growth has already endorsed six GOP incumbents up in 2016 and Kirk ain’t one of them.
Like Rich has pointed out, there is no track record of a Illinois GOP incumbent getting beat in a primary. But I think he’ll get one with national crazy money behind it.
And Alexi was an awful candidate for Senate. Seriously, who could vote for that kid?
Chuck “Dont Call Me Charles” Percy got beat by Simon in the Reagan landslide.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 3:05 pm
Niles has to have some sort of vendetta against Duckworth or personal connection to Kirk. Kirk has practically no accomplishments in the US Senate.
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 3:14 pm
Maybe I’ve overlooked it, but what has Kirk accomplished in Congress besides being a reliable voice for the Israel Lobby & the people who see war as a solution to every problem–real & imagined–in the Middle East?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 3:16 pm
Carl: I’m not sure he has even accomplished that. Word: Percy lost because he criticized Israel’s military policies and he was targeted.
Comment by Bright One Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 3:50 pm
LizPhair: Bush/Rauner? Well, since Rauner has emphasized that all jobs do not have to be in America, and it has been reported that the Bush family has control of most of the fresh water supply in South America, where will we go? Seriously, if it is Bush/Rauner, how will the steady decline of the U.S. cease
Comment by Bright One Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 4:01 pm
Actually, Rauner did say that and the Bushes have a lot of South America water interests (reportedly)
Comment by Bright One Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 4:03 pm
Noone has ever been able to make Kirk’s actual voting record diminish his image of moderation. He’s a master of disguise, and a master campaigner. He will beat those from his right in the Primary with national security, and from his left in the General with social moderation. He won’t go down easy.
Comment by walker Friday, Feb 6, 15 @ 4:47 pm