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* The last thing the Republicans want is a detailed discussion of the proposed cuts in Gov. Bruce Rauner’s budget. It’s probably why legislative staff, reporters and others were not thoroughly briefed on the budget plan this week. Cuts are never popular. People generally want the government to cut “waste” and continue doing largely what it has been doing - and everybody’s got a different idea about what waste actually is.
Plus, lots of Republican legislators are beyond nervous about the governor’s proposed cuts. Nerves most definitely need to be calmed.
So…
In a sign that a final state budget plan will look significantly different from what Gov. Bruce Rauner outlined Wednesday, the man expected to deliver Republican votes in the House predicted tough but “delicate” negotiations lie ahead.
In an interview Thursday with the Quad-City Times Springfield Bureau, House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, R-Western Springs, downplayed concerns that Rauner proposed a budget that is not balanced because it relies on $2.2 billion in savings from an overhaul of state employee pensions.
“Everything in that speech is subject to negotiation,” Durkin said […]
Durkin said his goal in the coming weeks will be to find ways to cut state spending within the parameters laid out by Rauner. But he did not commit to following the exact template proposed by the rookie chief executive.
“The governor has indicated he wants to live within a certain revenue number, and how we get there, he’ll be very open to how we do that,” Durkin said. “It’s going to be really delicate, but I think its going to be a very good negotiating year for the caucuses.”
…Adding… The Tribune editorial board has also refused to get into the weeds of the governor’s budget plan, preferring instead to echo Durkin’s comments. So gutsy.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:14 am
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“Everything in that speech is subject to negotiation,” Durkin said
Moments later, a pager in Durkin’s jacket started beeping. Durkin left the room and hasn’t been heard from since.
Comment by Helpful Hardware Man Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:22 am
I am a big fan of Leader Durkin.
Up to this January, I have really liked how Durkin has gone about his business, and fighting the jet wash that was Rauner the HGOP made “inroads” but loses are loses, no matter how margins were closed for Statewides.
All that being said, this might be more Durkin “hoping” he can get Rauner off this path of destroying the GOP Caucuses with these votes, than realizing that Rauner owns the Caucuses now, and unless they convince Rauner to back off, the beginning of bad vote after bad vote will be “encouraged” by that $20 million sick.
There is a huge difference in believing you can change Rauner’s mind and hoping you can change Rauner’s mind.
“How is that? What do you mean?”
Welp.
“You don’t give me 10 votes…”…”Problem”…
Sonny never negotiated, Sonny went to the mattresses.
This path of “My way or else” to the GOP Caucuses, the strong-arming of the process could very well make the numbers dwindle more, as scorched earth “green lights” turn on GOP members.
This is “believe” versus “hope”
I hope, that what Durkin believes, is true.
I hope.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:25 am
If he is so open to “getting to this number” and being open about it why not cut the things that are not necessary instead of eliminating programs that are just going to cause more damage? We will see how open to getting to this number he is.
Comment by Wow Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:31 am
Of course they are “nervous” . . . let’s face facts and call it flat out scared. But that same fear is why the can has been repeatedly kicked down the road for 30 years. It is their bad luck that the can has hit the wall on their watch, but there it is.
Comment by Percival Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:32 am
===Durkin said his goal in the coming weeks will be to find ways to cut state spending within the parameters laid out by Rauner. ===
So while Rauner and Durkin pocket large portions of the lost revenue from the tax decrease, Durkin thinks his job now is to determine exact which of the state’s poor and helpless will pay for their windfall and exactly how much they’ll pay. #GimmeABreak
Comment by PublicServant Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:35 am
Given the number and variety of the cuts that will be required to fit within revenue numbers, all members of both parties will be splitting hairs and making tough votes. Pet program legislation has been the rule of the day for decades on both sides of the aisle. As the fatted calves are lined up for scrutiny, GOP and Dems alike are going to have to bid farewell to programs that might have been popular in some places, but don’t pass the efficiency test.
It won’t simply be GOPers taking tough votes, it’ll be everyone. I do agree that the GOP has been long out of practice on this, but it will be painful all the way around. If it’s not, we won’t get anywhere. Too much at stake for all members here.
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:36 am
The sound you hear is the sledgehammer of responsibility slamming itself onto the Republican caucuses.
Transfers from Citizens for Rauner can buy plenty of commercials, office space, phones, designs, literature, and mailings, but it cannot buy grassroots enthusiasm for the Republican members.
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:39 am
==and how we get there, he’ll be very open to how we do that==
Hmmm. I wonder. This is really the big question. Will it be Rauner’s way or no way OR is Rauner laying out a hard line position in anticipation of negotiation? Only time will tell.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:42 am
Nice catch - PublicServant-,
===Durkin said his goal in the coming weeks will be to find ways to cut state spending within the parameters laid out by Rauner.===
Leader Durkin’s Crew, especially the Press Shop;
Your Principle is now put himself in position to personally “own”…”acceptable cuts”
Please, do yourselves a solid and walk this back to;
“Leader Durkin, along with the other leaders and the Governor will, at the end, agree rgat is going to fit in the parameters Governor Rauner laid out.”
Yikes, does Leader Durkin wabt to wear the jacket for “approved cuts”?
Don’t leave Durkin hanging out on a branch Durkin may mog have realized he put himself on…alone.
Rauner owns this until someone takes it from him, even accidentally.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:42 am
Suddenly I’m having flashbacks to around this same time in 2010
Comment by carbaby Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:47 am
- A Guy -,
You are completely ignoring, again, that Rauner is dictating tough votes from the ILGOP GA, and Cullerton and MJM can dictate how many, maybe ALL the GOP members, votes are needed to get these 10 votes and budget to the Floors, and to Pass.
You are delusional if you think Dems have tough votes coming, because both Cullerton and MJM dictate to Rauner how many they will give, and the minimum is 13 House Dems, and 10 Senate Dems. That’s far less than 47 and 20.
This will be slow-played by the Dems, inflicting the most damage to the ILGOP GA, and the Governor. Why? Because, well, they can.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:48 am
“Subject to negotiation” is a diplomatic way of saying “we’ll be starting from scratch.”
Absent any retroactive revenue bump for GRF, I’m guessing some sort of POB is in the future for FY16.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:49 am
==destroying the GOP Caucuses with these votes==
You can’t kill something that’s already dead or non-existent
Comment by Anonymoiis Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:51 am
===You can’t kill something that’s already dead or non-existent===
You can’t revive something by ensuring growth can’t, and won’t be possible because of the whim of a man and his $20 million…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:55 am
The problem is that Rauner misrepresented himself in order to calm those who are now running away from him. His ridiculously partisan primary rhetoric was permitted to be seen as a sincere rookie mistake by a guy learning the ropes by the party he wooed into nominating him. Then, during the General against Quinn, Rauner changed his tone towards one that presented himself as compassionate and moderate. He deliberately defused his earlier anti-union comments as many thought he would need to do.
Yet, wishful thinking concluded that the new governor was indeed a rookie politician who underneath it all, was an understanding listener who held moderate views. What Durkin and his other Republicans are doing today is attempting to balance their new governor’s extremist rhetoric with their wishful thinking.
Durkin cannot publically expose any conflicting views he holds with this new leader - that just isn’t what is to do. Yet, he has to acknowledge what everyone else has already said. That is, as governor Rauner has come out of his inauguration as a divider, not a uniter. There is no shared sacrifices from the man repeatedly telling citizens that his enemies need to be sacrificed.
Governor Rauner is no Governor Walker when it comes to governing. Walker accomplished his anti-union work by pointing towards a brighter future, while Rauner is attempting to accomplish his anti-union work by finger pointing and blame. Walker succeeded and Rauner needs to either adapt, or fail.
Durkin is a fellow who has proved himself as someone who attempts to find a common consensus from which to build. He does that in his quotes above. However, his new governor has proved himself as someone who thinks he can demonize, divide and bully into a consensus.
Walker showed Rauner how to succeed in a blue state. Somehow Rauner seems to think he knows another way to succeed in a blue state.
I see a lot more Rod Blagojevich in the new governor than I see a Scott Walker. At least right now. Rauner has made a very bad first impression as we see already in polls taken since his inauguration.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:56 am
I’m glad WOW knows ” the things that are not necessary”. Please share.
Comment by anon. Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:56 am
Guy, with the income tax rollback, we’re talking about $6 billion, or nearly 20 percent, short from baseline.
Campaign is over. Vague talk about “pet projects” and “golden calves” doesn’t cut it. Real numbers are the order of the day.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:56 am
These legislators have been promising the moon. My kind of guys. Get back out from under your desk and promise you will fix this. You and Rauner. Just stand up there and tell your constituents and university presidents and all those others who milk off the taxpayers of Illinois…
…Tell them we have a “spendin’ problem.”
“And everything’s going to be OK!”
Comment by Joe Isuzu Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:59 am
It seems that the Governors may soon find out that his wonderful plans of changing the state to his liking wont work. Fellow republicans who have been around and know how things work can see that his plan doesn’t. It seems like massive compromise and some tax hikes may be in the works.
Comment by Ginhouse Tommy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:02 am
What these universities need now is a little Democrat Party love. Hope they can swing it.
Comment by Tim Snopes Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:02 am
=== Wordslinger - Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 9:56 am:
Guy, with the income tax rollback, we’re talking about $6 billion, or nearly 20 percent, short from baseline.
Campaign is over. Vague talk about “pet projects” and “golden calves” doesn’t cut it. Real numbers are the order of the day.====
I don’t think so Sling. We’ll see soon enough. While MJM isn’t buying the budget as it looks now, it appears to me he sees an opportunity here that he can take full advantage of.
This article in today’s DH is interesting. Related to Budget if not this particular thread. It’s right on though. http://www.dailyherald.com/arti…/20150220/discuss/150229927/
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:09 am
===Walker accomplished his anti-union work by pointing towards a brighter future, while Rauner is attempting to accomplish his anti-union work by finger pointing and blame. Walker succeeded and Rauner needs to either adapt, or fail.===
lol.
Walker had a Republican Legislature. Rauner does not.
Rhetoric, waxing poetic, and demonizing Rauner doesn’t chanfe the realities of the Legislatures they both face, and those stark differences.
Isn’t Rauner “light blue” - VanillaMan -?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:09 am
It’s amazing how the Tribbies can yammer on for days and days about the state budget without actually referencing any of its components or the numbers associated with it.
What do they think budgets are?
Today they actually include a revenue estimate of $32 billion. I guess that’s to pretend they actually have done the reading.
But you’d think they’d get more personally involved in the subject, since they seem to believe that the state budget is some sort of magical thermostat that determines all economic activity.
Who had that Econ class in college? “Cause and Effect: State Budgets and Economic Growth.”
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:12 am
“A guy @ 10:09am”: your link did not work for me.
Comment by Capitol Fax Follower Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:13 am
– Vanilla Man –
I don’t think Walker’s success had anything to do with him having a more optimistic vision than Rauner. It was all about him having a GOP majority in the legislature.
However, I will allow that some of Walker’s success can be attributed to him having a much more developed political skill set that Rauner, largely because Walker is a dreaded “career politician” who worked his way up through the ranks.
Comment by Tony Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:13 am
=== While MJM isn’t buying the budget as it looks now, it appears to me he sees an opportunity here that he can take full advantage of.===
You are spinning yourself silly.
===This will be slow-played by the Dems, inflicting the most damage to the ILGOP GA, and the Governor. Why? Because, well, they can.===
That’s what’s going to happen. Compromise in the GA under Cullerton’s and MJM’s terms.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:14 am
== Capitol Fax Follower - Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:13 am:
“A guy @ 10:09am”: your link did not work for me.===
Sorry, let me try again:
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150220/discuss/150229927/
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:18 am
My prediction, Rauner has to make those cuts or cave on new taxes (obvioisly), but my prediction is the GOP is going to get hammered in the next election, hoisted by their own pitard. They spent so much effort decrying tax increases and building imaginary billions in waste, that they are all backed in a corner. If they support abtax increase after hammering it the will get punished in ad’s. Since thier isnt billions in waste they will have to cut critical programs and will get hammered in ad’s.
GOP has a tough road, and i bet Madigan wont help them by having the Dems do the tough voting alone.
Rauner wisely sought out the african american vote, and promised support for the community. He did well with african americans. If he cuts these community based programs that will blow up.
Gov and GOP there is an old adege, be careful what you wish for…. You have your wish.
That saidninteally hope the leaders dtrp up and fix this mess. Corners or not the lack of bipartisan cooperation will not grt us anywhere. So i wish leader Durkin godsspeed and hope he can navigate this mess
Comment by Ghost Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:25 am
@A Guy:
“It won’t simply be GOPers taking tough votes, it’ll be everyone. I do agree that the GOP has been long out of practice on this, but it will be painful all the way around.”
You’re right about that. Also, it’s not going to be 1-2 GOP votes BTW, it’ll have to be ALL of them. Otherwise there isn’t any reason for MJM or Cullerton to play ball.
You’re delusional if you think they are going to carry Rauner’s water.
Comment by How Ironic Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:30 am
===Run away! Run away!===
LOL! Profiles in Courage.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:32 am
=== It won’t simply be GOPers taking tough votes, it’ll be everyone. ===
NO - if we’re talking about Rauner’s budget construct. The GOP will be the only ones to put votes on this monster.
What we need is for the gov and the 4 tops to negotiate a budget that contains hard, but reasonable cuts, and revenue enhancements. Then we’ll see a structured roll call.
Time will tell whether the monster unveiled on Wednesday was simply an exaggerated opening bargaining position or a more rigid construct where significant change will not be tolerated by the Gov.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:37 am
OW-
“You are delusional if you think Dems have tough votes coming”
I wouldn’t go quite this far; at some point, a large number of Dems are going to have to vote for a budget, and that budget will have come combination of spending cuts, tax hikes, and magical thinking. They’ll take heat for that.
What I WILL agree with is that Republicans have it much worse, because they can’t blame the cuts and magical thinking on the other party’s Governor (they can probably blame tax hikes on Madigan, though), and eventually, they’ll have to choose between facing a primary challenger with $1 million or breaking their truces with local unions.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:44 am
===What we need is for the gov and the 4 tops to negotiate a budget that contains hard, but reasonable cuts, and revenue enhancements. Then we’ll see a structured roll call.===
- Norseman -, well said. That is called governing. Governing isn’t using $20 million to make 67 GOP votes on toxic legislation and a budget.
My “hope” is that Durkin sees what you said - Noresman -, because I know that Durkin sees that strategy is the only way these ideas will be less damaging to the Caucuses.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:44 am
What’s delusional folks, is the idea that revenue bills with cuts will be taken and only GOP votes will be on them. That will make the Dems look worse than bills raising taxes with only Dems on them.
It might be time to look back to MJM’s working relationship with other GOP Governors. This ain’t a game. It’s government in a revenue crisis with real consequences every day. You think anyone can afford to sit on the sidelines and let one side or one guy just “sweat it out”.
I don’t think so. If that makes me delusional, so be it.
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:44 am
==- How Ironic - Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:30 am:==
==You’re delusional if you think they are going to carry Rauner’s water.==
The usual criticism of A Guy is not that he is too grounded in reality lol.
Regarding the DH editorial he posted, if the timing of Rauner’s whacks (i.e. all at once) are bad for local government, how come not his whacks for DFCS or other agencies and programs? If you’re just shifting ill-planned cuts around from one area to another it doesn’t make much difference where they end up coming from.
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:47 am
===I wouldn’t go quite this far; at some point, a large number of Dems are going to have to vote for a budget, and that budget will have come combination of spending cuts, tax hikes, and magical thinking. They’ll take heat for that.===
Here’s the rub, and why it’s delusional;
13 and 10.
Those are the starting numbers Rauner absolutely needs. Needs. Not optional.
How Rauner…dictates…his own requirements as to what he wants an “up or down” vote on hinges on… 13 and 10.
It’s the math that in many ways supersedes any cuts, revenues, eliminations, or taxes.
The math is 60 and it’s 30.
It’s delusional to think Cullerton and MJM will go 30 and 15 to help Rauner on what is “out there”, so the windows are 13-30, and 10-15. “Pain” will be measured between those windows.
You can have a great plan, a painful plan, a fair plan…
It’s 60 and it’s 30.
The rest is just measuring how much damage the ILGOP GA is going to be able to handle.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:52 am
===This ain’t a game.===
This is a game.
===If that makes me delusional, so be it.===
Governing is difficult. The politics of governing IS the game… the game within the game.
That’s why its delusional.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 10:59 am
The Trib writes what is now a small portion of DuPage county. Totally out of step with the entire city/region/state.
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:03 am
“subject to negotiation” means between the legislative leaders, after Rauner has his bills offered to committee.
The sausage coming out will not look much like the meat, fat and gristle going in.
Comment by walker Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:03 am
OW- I don’t disagree with any of that. And if we’re limiting this discussion to Rauner’s proposal, or something that looks a lot like it- yeah, only Republicans will *have* to vote for that one.
But my point is, at the end of the day, a budget will pass, and that budget will have major unpopular elements to it, and a not-insignificant number of Dems will have to vote for it. Most of them will probably survive such a vote- but hey, most Republicans will probably survive a vote for Rauner’s budget, too.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:04 am
- Arsensal -,
We’re talking around where we are agreeing! lol
The rub for me, and I am speculating Durkin too(?) withbthat quote and interview is
1) The better play for the passing of something is get a number the Governor likes, and get enough votes to pass it.
And…
2) Limit the scorched earth proposals and try to make what can be agreed to to get 60 and 30 won’t not only hamper the existing GOP Caucuses numbers, but won’t stop the growth of the GOP Caucuses, if they can help it.
Caucus Leaders want growth, that’s the #1 role of the gig; be a majority caucus.
All good, - Arsensal -, with respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:12 am
I think Rauner cut and pasted this budget from suggestions by his staff. Taken together as a whole it’s completely unworkable. Even Durkin can’t swallow it. Too bad the Tribune editorial board is tripping over itself to support their guy; their best response: Well, what have the rest of you you got? Pathetic.
Comment by Wensicia Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:14 am
=== What’s delusional folks, is the idea that revenue bills with cuts will be taken and only GOP votes will be on them. ===
I assume you meant approp bills. What you forget is that the lead in this dance is the Gov. If he and his purchased caucuses don’t work with the Dems on a compromise budget, then that is EXACTLY what you’ll see. The Gov will scream that its the Dems fault, but he’ll wear the jacket as lead.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:14 am
Norse, true enough that they’re going to have to work together. While the mansion belongs to the GOP, the mess still belongs to the Dems. That perception (which is reality) hasn’t changed and won’t for a while. The stink budget we’re in is all Quinn/Madigan/Cullerton.
This idea that they can just sit there with “Come hither” looks on their faces is inane. Keep your eye on Madigan. He’s looking for solutions. The rest, as they say, will follow.
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:37 am
Durkie is dreamin’ ….but let him drift for awhile
The Tribbies seem to think someone needs to offer an alternative to BVR.
How about the Tribbies compare the cuts to all the spending plans they boost as react to all those glorious stories written over the years and then tell the state what to repeal.
That should keep the Tribbies busy
Comment by Anonin' Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:40 am
So, when Democrats held the governor’s mansion, the Tribune believed it was up to Democrats to fix the budget.
And now that a Republican golds the Governor’s mansion, the Tribune believes its up to Democrats to fix the budget.
Such courage. Such leadership.
Comment by Juvenal Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:44 am
===That perception (which is reality) hasn’t changed and won’t for a while. The stink budget we’re in is all Quinn/Madigan/Cullerton.===
Nope.
“We elected you Governor Rauner, fix this!”
Rauner already opened “Envelope #1″ - blame your successor.
Rauner owns it. Blaming the Dems after Rauner bought the GOP Caucuses ain’t gonna fly.
What, - A Guy -, are you saying Rauner isn’t up to the gig he coveted, so it’s nis time to blame the Dems? Might as well throw in the 1/3 of the GOP GA that’s “corrupt” too.
“Time to get to work, Governor.” That’s what people will say.
===This idea that they can just sit there with “Come hither” looks on their faces is inane. Keep your eye on Madigan. He’s looking for solutions. The rest, as they say, will follow.===
MJM threw out his idea, now he’s going to wait, and I know his waiting reminds me I know he plans, I don’t know his plans until he wants to reveal them.
- A Guy -, I don’t think you understand Caucus governing and the politics of governing through passing bills through structured roll calls.,,
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:49 am
=== This idea that they can just sit there with “Come hither” looks on their faces is inane. Keep your eye on Madigan. He’s looking for solutions. ===
Madigan is looking for solutions. But it’s still Rauner’s lead. If Rauner wants to allow for a reasonable compromise, then there will be compromise. Rauner can’t give up on a few items and expect massive concessions on Madigan’s part. He will sit it out. Call it inane if you want, but this guy is a pro and knows what he’s doing. The music has started, the dance begins with the Gov.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 11:52 am
Madigan does not underestimate Rauner, or anyone else for that matter. Rauner understands Madigan’s key role in this process. The music has started, the dance has begun, but the slow dance, you know, the feelie one; that’s still a ways off.
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:01 pm
===- A Guy -, I don’t think you understand Caucus governing and the politics of governing through passing bills through structured roll calls.,,====
Sorry to burden you Willy. I’m a naif.
Comment by A guy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:02 pm
===Sorry to burden you Willy. I’m a naif.===
Aw, that’s ok. Really.
I’m more concerned Gov. Rauner might be a naïf too…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:09 pm
Tomorrow’s Chicago Tribune today:
Due to Illinois’ high taxes, fleeing productive populace and overall terrible business climate, global heavy machinery giant Caterpillar announced today a multi-million expansion of its world headquarters in an exotic foreign locale called “Peoria.”
Caterpillar joins ADM, which cited its zero state income tax liability when it moved its headquarters from Decatur to a big city to the north.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:26 pm
If Governor Rauner can force the Democrats to propose tax increases in order to limit the cuts and he vetoes the increases once creating a crisis and he then enters into serious negotiations with the Democrats he wins politically. Governor Rauner then can say he was forced to agree to tax increases to keep the state functioning, but the real problem are the tax and spend Democrats.
Comment by Rod Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:28 pm
- Rod -,
Any tax increase will, at the barest of minimums, have 30 GOP House votes, and, minimum 15 GOP Senate votes.
Some of those members took pledges “never” to raise taxes…
If the Governor “wins”, loads of GOP GA carnage will be more than possible.
The Legislature is different than the Big Chair. So are the consequences back in the district(s) too
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:32 pm
A Guy, the game can’t end without a structured roll call. My point is that unless Rauner is willing to make reasonable compromises, the GOP caucuses will be strung out for votes on politically bad approp bills during the process or they will not vote on them thus embarrassing the Gov.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:34 pm
He’s no naïf. He’s a hard bargainer. He knows that you start from a maximum position. While so many are trashing him, I expect pressure to build on Madigan as well.
Comment by Percival Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:35 pm
My observation has been that most who post on this blog are political insiders who are in some fashion close to the workings of government. That’s one of the reasons that this blog is so interesting, and fun. And, being close to the subject matter is surely a blessing. But, it can also obscure one’s perspective. At this point in time it may be more revealing to step back and take a look through the eyes of the common man. Setting aside all sacred cows, what would a public opinion poll tell us if the Governor (if he could) cut all state expenditures by 10%, across the board? An educated guess is that it would be a fairly popular gambit. What we are seeing in the budget debate may be a variation of that theme. And, the Governor’s play, however distressful it may be to any particular organization, may prove very popular with the general public.
Comment by Keyser Soze Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:36 pm
===The Governor’s play, however distressful it may be to any particular organization, may prove very popular with the general public. ===
Yeah, sure, that’s exactly why Rauner released all the details in advance and talked about how he was eliminating the homeless youth program during his address.
Oh, wait…
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:38 pm
===While so many are trashing him, I expect pressure to build on Madigan as well.===
lol. The Governor proposes, the Legislature desposes. MJM has no pressure right now, it’s Rauner looking for votes to get to 60 and 30, and what he needs to do to get there. Your thought is wishful thinking, not regality.
- Norseman -, you are Spot On perfect. It’s a science and an art, structured roll calls, isn’t it.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:39 pm
===Setting aside all sacred cows, what would a public opinion poll tell us if the Governor (if he could) cut all state expenditures by 10%, across the board? An educated guess is that it would be a fairly popular gambit.===
Brady/Plummer 2010.
Funny thing about that, even then, “So, what does that mean ‘10%’…?”
It always comes down to the details needing to pass the 60 and 30 vote totals…AND…having the President and Speaker bringing that budget and/or components to the Floors.
Governing is difficult.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:47 pm
==the game can’t end without a structured roll call==
Bingo. This is the beginning.
As possible cuts are publicized, pressure will build against them. As possible tax increases are publicized, pressure will then build against them. Neither will get everything they want.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 12:49 pm
OW, we disagree. Madigan ran the campaign a couple of years ago on “only Mike Madigan can get us out of this.” Dumping it all n Rauner’s lap or proposing vast new taxes is not going to work here. Madigan’s image as king will work against him. It has not before thanks to Democratic Governors who would not call him out. Rauner will, and point to the midterms. Rauner knows full well that he is up a tree due to the majorities. The trick is to flip that fact on Madigan.
Comment by Percival Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 1:01 pm
===Rauner knows full well that he is up a tree due to the majorities. The trick is to flip that fact on Madigan.===
Rauner wants to shut down orphanages.
MJM won’t support that.
“Who” is going to win the public perception there, Ron Sandack?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 1:04 pm
Nash equilibrium.
Comment by Juvenal Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 1:24 pm
A structured roll call would be a Nash equilibrium. A game with this many players has multiple Nash equilibria, and one of those is the most likely solution.
However, a Nash equilbrium is by no means the only possible solution, as numerous recent budgets have indicated.
Comment by Juvenal Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 1:29 pm
Rod, I doubt very highly that any budget will get to Rauner that he would veto, because whatever gets to him will have a lot of GOP votes on it.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 1:32 pm
Wordslinger:
There are atleast three Nash equilibria where the four leaders pass a budget that is vetoed by the governor, with those vetoes being sustained, overridden, or a combination.
It is unlikely for his first budget, but it can happen.
Comment by Juvenal Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 2:23 pm
Rauner did well out of the gate, meeting people going to ga parties etc. he filled his jar high with marbles. Then he dumped his whole jar of goodwill out to pick a fight with the unions and dropped 10 points almost overnight.
Comment by Ghost Friday, Feb 20, 15 @ 3:22 pm