Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Deja vu all over again
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Granberg; Ameren; Smith; Abortion; Spears; Churchill; Syverson; Sullivan; Cross; Target feed (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x1 ***
Posted in:
What impact, if any, will the national Republican blow-up have on Illinois Republicans? Be specific if you can about your predictions for all levels, national, state, local.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 9:15 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Deja vu all over again
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Granberg; Ameren; Smith; Abortion; Spears; Churchill; Syverson; Sullivan; Cross; Target feed (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x1 ***
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
None local, none federal, none state. One exception is that the dems will most likely take Foley’s seat.
It also depends what is revealed in the upcoming weeks leading up to election. It all depends on who knows what and knew what when. The fact that he got forced to resign says a lot.
Republicans resign, democrats fight/get pardonned (Mel Reynolds) for the same thing, pedophilia.
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 9:30 am
This will have a negative impact on two very important races in the 8th & 6th Congressional Districts - I think that this will boost both Bean and Duckworth. If the guy running against Weller in Kankakee Grundy, & etc. does not make hay of the recent photo of Jerry Weller and Foley, he deserves to lose.
This is one that will not go away and Denny Hastert has been gored badly - the sooner he fades out of picture the better, but it seems too late to undo the damage. Hell, what do I know - I thought John Kelly would beat Lipinski. We need more guys like Kelly in government - service is not an after-thought.
Comment by Pat Hickey Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 9:33 am
Started off badly for GOP; because of the hypocrisy of the Dems, should spin the other way soon; GOP voters will see through this and come out perhaps in even greater numbers; GOP retains House and Senate; no effect on Gov. race or local race; other than conservative GOP may vote now rather than stay home; good for all, esp. JBT who may end up pulling off a miracle win; it’s all up for grabs now
Comment by byteme Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 9:33 am
The attempt to muddy the Republicans before an important election has failed.
All you have to do is read today’s New York Times editorial.
They know Republicans hold congress and now want to get in their good graces.
They also try to appease the gays because this attempted coup is going to affect them most.
If Dan Rather had succeeded in derailing Bush, he would have been the toast of the town even if they found out about the bogus letters later.
Same thing here. The gays are not going to be happy with the liberal crowd because they failed to get the Dems in.
Comment by True Observer Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 9:53 am
Conceivably Peraica benefits from an anti-incumbency wave, but he loses some b/c county gov’t scandals will get less attention as the national story unfolds.
The chief effect on state house races will probably be to reduce turnout among voters formerly part of the GOP base. How much will it be reduced? Very little, but close elections are won and lost by small margins.
ComEd is a big winner because the utility issue is going to get less attention.
Topinka loses because the national scandal will keep Blagojevich’s probs out of the public consciousness. Also the scandal further dulls Topinka’s claims of being a reformer. She’s associated with the corrupt George Ryan, the corrupt George W. Bush and the corrupt GOP House leadership. And she wants us to believe she’s the the reform alternative to Blagojevich. Yeah, whatever.
Shimkus and Hastert are going to have to put some effort into races that shouldn’t have needed effort or significant expenditure to win. LaHood has tarnished his credibility.
If a Democrat tsunami hits conceivably the GOP could lose multiple seats in Illinois.
And Alexi Giannoulias seems like too minor a story to cover now.
Rich Whitney is probably on track to get over 7.5% of the vote. It will be a protest vote, but the Greens will break 5% as voters express their disatisfaction.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 9:56 am
I think the biggest beneficiaries are Blago and Stroger. Everyday the top headlines are about Hastert et al, is one day less that they are about Blago and Stroger.
Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 10:17 am
All depends on our weak Illinois news media… Shimkus and Hastert are already saying they did all they could and are blaming anyone but themselves (even though Hastert says he “takes responsibility” he’s not accepting accountability).
I think it gives Laesch and even Stover a bit more money and exposure, but likely won’t change much in those races. Hastert, if he steps down as Speaker, wouldn’t retire the House til after the election. If Blago were smart (presuming he’s reelected) he then calls a special election to tie into the muni general election next April and Laesch would have a huge advantage.
It may help Duckworth and Bean solidify their standings. If Kirk can be tied into it as part of the GOP “Leadership” (doesn’t Leadership meet pretty regularly?) then it may boost Seals too.
Makes Emanuel’s job as DCCC head easier overall.
–
All the GOP’s efforts right now are simply to hold onto their base. They could care less about middle America. Thus the attempts to smear Dems, gays, the media, etc — the usual GOP boogeymen.
Again, pathetic.
Comment by NW burbs Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 10:27 am
Personally, I think that Zinga was poised for a great come-from-behind victory, but now I think that Foley has killed this opportunity!
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 10:40 am
Wumpus,
Look up your history book again. Mel Reynolds served his time — a state sentence — for being with an underage girl.
What he did was wrong and he paid his debt to society. What Clinton did was commute his Federal sentence that he was serving for campaign finance violations. The Federal sentence was served simultaneous to the state sentence for abuse.
Larry explains better than I.
Comment by NW burbs Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 10:45 am
After the NSE “blow-up”, the Woodward “blow-up”, and now the Hastert “blow-up”, it depends what else the MSM and the Democrats have decided to create this month.
It seems every week the breathless media scoops another superhumongous story of Republican depravity, treason and greed. Then the facts come out and we discover it is another fraud.
There is such an incredible double-standard. Democrats like Blagojevich have to be hand-cuffed and perp walked in public before they are considered suspects, while Republicans like Hastert is guilty of knowing that a Florida congressman is sending IMs to a former page. We continually see the mainstream media pounce on every rumor and magnify it into a Homeric tragedy if the main players have an (R) after their name.
Their elitist biases are spinning them further downhill. Thank God for the Internet and Fox News!
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 10:46 am
Because this creates a total media vacuum and it is negative for Republicans it will help Democrats across the board.
Vanilla: Need some cheese to go with you whine?
Comment by (618) Democrat Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:20 am
The evidence suggests Hastert failed to investigate something that should have been investigated, right?
Why did Hastert decide to do what he did? Was it based on the merits of the case? Or the potential damage to Foley and the House Republicans?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:20 am
This scandal does show how cravenly dishonest Republican partisans are.
They are anti-gay when it helps them get votes, but scream “homophobia” and “gay-bashing” when it suits their interests.
They are horrified Clinton had sex with a 22-year old intern who initiated an encounter with the President. But they defend a Congressman trying to bugger 16-year old pages, and even attack the pages.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:23 am
VanillaMan: Wow could you please go get some more right wing crazy talking points.
Your kind loved Bob Woodward after his first two books but now that the well known truth about Bush comes out in one of his books right away he is biased. That is what you guys do, you never talk about facts or the truth, you attack people who do talk about those things.
But I guess the truth eludes you when all you do is take talking points from the non elitist, “man of the people” Rush Limbaugh.
Comment by HANKSTER Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:27 am
==After the NSE “blow-upâ€, the Woodward “blow-upâ€, and now the Hastert “blow-upâ€, it depends what else the MSM and the Democrats have decided to create this month.
Yeah, those Democrats are pretty amazing in how they can get the GOP to cover up for a pedofile for over five years, get the administration to run an incompetent war, and to actually make us less safe five years later as a document by this administration argues.
Democrats are running a decent, but not great campaign. The damage being done to the GOP is being done by the GOP. For the ‘part of personal responsibility’ there sure is some amazing displacement going on.
==There is such an incredible double-standard. Democrats like Blagojevich have to be hand-cuffed and perp walked in public before they are considered suspects
Seriously, anyone who pays attention to the Governor knows what is coming down in a few weeks. The problem is that the average voter isn’t paying attention. The Trib is running regular stories about the guy, the Sun-Times is going after him with everything they have, Rich is having a field day as any good reporter should, but people aren’t paying attention. Rod isn’t getting a free pass from the press, he’s getting it from a particularly incompetent opponent. She finally put up a decent commercial, but he’s been throwing her around for so long that it’s too late.
What’s stunning and I’m stealing this from someone I know, is that everything you hate about Rod is true about the Republican President and Congress. Yet you whine it’s the media’s fault that Republicans are being taken to task–not that they might just deserve it.
Rod practices the same politics that the national Republicans practice–politics over policy. You hate one, you should hate the other. Funny enough, most pick one or the other. I know consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds, but it’d be nice if you and others on either side could stop blowing my irony meter everyday.
Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:32 am
==Look up your history book again. Mel Reynolds served his time — a state sentence — for being with an underage girl.
And to be clear, I disagree with even the commutation he received.
Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:33 am
I think Zinga hurt herself with her very racist profiling comments. She can lose an election all by herself, has never needed any help!
Comment by Joe Schmoe Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:38 am
For the sake of not repeating things, I’ll say that I agree with everything Carl said, with the following exceptions:
While Topinka is “associated with†a corrupt former governor, Rod IS a corrupt current governor. Sad that an election has to come down to that distinction, but if it does, Rod loses.
And I don’t think Whitney will take anything over 5%.
Comment by grand old partisan Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:48 am
The problem for Republicans is far deeper than just the surface of the scandal.
After passing silly laws like building a 700 mile fence for a 2000 mile border (No Child Left Behind is still not helping with math skills) to try and stop the bleeding in the Republican base, the Republicans lost all of their efforts at a comeback when Foley overshadowed a bill that was supposed to fire up its base.
I’ve been talking about this being a 1994 for Dems for well over a year now. The total number of seats changed will be lower because realignment in the Northeast and Suburban Midwest has occurred somewhat over time and the South in 1994 was more like a damn breaking.
However, the measures of intensity by different the members of the two parties are radically different. Democrats are highly motivated, Republicans are not. That turns into lower turnout for Republicans and ultimately is what wins landslide elections. It’s not winning the swing voters so much–though independents are leaning Dem right now–it’s that one side doesn’t show up. Amongst highly motivated voters, Charlie Cook had Dems at nearly a 20 point advantage.
Add to that a scandal not about pedophilia, but about covering it up and the wave keeps getting bigger as more Democrats get angry and motivated while Republicans get more depressed.
I thought Gianoulis was toast a month or two ago and I’d be happy to still believe that, but he’s probably going to win given the lackluster Republican numbers in Illinois–which are worse since Judy has so many detractors in her own party. That’s depressing. Not as depressing as Rod is going to be reelected even though it’s pretty much consensus he’s going to be indicted. But that’s a wave for you.
Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:49 am
One last thing–I love the Had Enough line, but Topinka’s ads are a walking advertisement for Democrats who have branded the line this year. Every time she runs that ad, she is reminding Dems to vote. She’s right-but she’s killing herself.
Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 11:52 am
GOP,
Alledgedly IS. Besides it depends on what the meaning of the word is is.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 12:07 pm
Arch,
It is only consensus among you guys. Don’t hold your breadth.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 12:09 pm
Memo to readers & repeaters of misleading GOP talking points.
Party affiliation fact-checking list:
Congressman sending sexually-suggestive messages to teenage boy: Republican.
Senior staff & Congressmen notified about Foley conduct years ago: Republican.
Family complaining about improper Foley conduct: Republican.
Source of information leaked to ABC News: Republican.
House staffer who tried negotiating to suppress media report of scandal: Republican.
Political tilt of media first calling for Hastert to resign Speakership: Republican.
House leaders saying they told Hastert about Foley: Republican.
House leaders saying Hastert mishandled the situation: Republican.
House leaders suspected of covering-up Foley conduct: Republican.
House staffer who resigning because of the scandal: Republican.
House staffers accusing each other of lying over these events: Republican.
Congressional campaign head in the midst of the scandal: Republican.
President defending Hastert: Republican.
Congressmen saying “we need to change the subject to keep majority power”: Republican.
Affiliation of individuals being questioned by the FBI about the scandal: Republican.
Affiliation of people changing their story about the scandal on an hourly basis: Republican.
Speaker holed up in his home: Republican.
Party not listed above: Democratic.
Party hurt in November by scandal: If you don’t know by now…
Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 12:10 pm
Some of you Republicans need to spend a little time actually getting your facts straight before you chime in with your black helicopter/leftwing conspiracy theories.
ABC is reporting that the IM’s were given to them by a lifelong REPUBLICAN and congressional staffer in July. Congressman Mark Foley’s former chief-of-staff was interviewed yesterday and said he warned Hastert’s office about Foley in 2003 and Hastert has known for three years.
These revelations are certainly going to suppress GOP turn-out across the state and gin up Democratic turn-out, because Dem base voters love the smell of blood.
Bean and Duckworth will be shoe-ins. Seals now has an outside shot. Peraica is toast. Any hope Republicans had of winning a statewide office in Illinois are now gone.
Nationally, business groups have dropped the odds of the GOP holding onto Congress from 58% just a few weeks ago to 46% — and that was before Foley’s former COS stepped forward.
The effect on legislative races outside of the Chicago media market will probably be dampened somewhat, but Aaron Schock — who recently hosted a fundraiser with Hastert — and John Cavelletto — who is tied to Shimkus’s hip — will have some serious ’splaining to do, every time some other Republican jumps ship.
I hope to God reporters are camping outside the Newt Gingrich fundraiser for Schock today to get Gingrich’s reaction.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 12:13 pm
It’s going to hurt turn out somewhat and that will hurt anyone in a close race. There are always people that show up just for the national races. It may not sway voters over to the dems but if they are disgusted enough, they will skip or stay home, which is almost as good.
Another big impact is fundraising. Denny Hastert has always been a big draw to raise money. Both federal and in Illinois. That has to hurt everyone top to bottom on the GOP ticket.
Comment by anon Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 12:24 pm
This thing is serious, serious damage to the GOP, with effects on every level.
The “Gotcha!” Washington press corps simply will not stop until they get Hastert’s scalp. You’re nobody in the national press scene until you have destroyed someone or some thing, so expect to hear about this every day through Nov. 7.
At the state level, Topinka gets drowned out for at least a week, maybe two.
Roskam and McSweeney strongly identify with the conservative wing of the GOP, which is taking on water (but good!) in this. If they were not in trouble before, they are now.
I think it will even affect the County Board race, but in a minor way. Peraica needs disaffected lifelong Democrats to swallow hard and pull the lever for a Republican, if only to stop the incompetent Toddler from taking office. This will not make it any easier.
Comment by Bubs Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 12:25 pm
GOP turn out will be down. In a blue state this means big trouble. Spot light on the 6th- the battle of the hawks; the Black Hawk vs the Chicken Hawk.
Comment by Charles Martel Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 12:54 pm
How will the media reports of repuplicans effect me? Not at all. From the immoral stands (destruction of marriage, abortion, parental rights, weaking military, clinton’s, kennedy’s etc…) the Demons have taken and continue to take, My family and I will never ever vote for any of them ever again. God bless America
Comment by wasonceanindependent Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 1:04 pm
Was Once:
Sure looks like Republicans are doing great at preserving and protecting marriage and families this week, doesn’t it?
Comment by Skeeter Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 1:33 pm
Was once,
What this country needs is a constitutional ammendment to save the institutions of marriage from the godless, heathen, Repub Congressmen! God Bless America!
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 1:44 pm
Who cares…Duckworth is no shoe in…keep telling yourself that YDD, God you’re an arrogant a**.
Comment by Rob Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 1:46 pm
I guess it depends on who gets indicted in the Stuart Levine affair and how many prominent Democrats. According to Sneed in the Trib today indictments are close to being announced.
I found intriguing somebody’s notion that there will be a backlash effect among conservative voters in Illinois who want to support poor (but perhaps not very smart) Denny Hastert. I find it hard to believe that would help JBT though. They’ll likely just not vote for guv.
JBT has to be hoping that the indictments are sufficiently Democratic and exciting that they counteract her lukewarm response to the Foley scandal among the suburbanite whose votes she must win to win the election. After all, a large proportion of those suburbanites have kids.
Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 1:46 pm
chicken hawk? That must be why Clinton never did anything to stop terrorism, aside from using law enforcement…he didn’t serve in the military..all makes sense now!
Comment by Rob Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 1:47 pm
Rob,
Clinton did some stuff.
For instance, he held weekly meetings.
Did Bush hold any meetings at all on the issue of terrorism before 9/11?
Also, Clinton did not say that we should allow The Taliban to be part of the Afghanistan government like REPUBLICAN Bill Frist said this week.
Do you Republicans remember what happened the last time that The Taliban was part of a government?
Comment by Skeeter Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 1:52 pm
This is amazing. Another blunder in the news about the GOP and yet it still will not ease the Democrats chance for victory. Roskam is going to roll over Duckworth - just wait and see. McSweeny will still have the same battle he’s been having and Hastert - I mean is his opponent even considered legitimate, it’s like the arrogant joker running against Biggert in the 13th. I actually heard him at a candidate’s night trying to win the audience over with stories about how he understands how Blue-Collar American families are struggling to make it and worry about putting their kids through college. In case you don’t know Shannon (Biggert’s Opponent) is a successful personal injury lawyer. I don’t know many of them that are considered blue collar or for that matter struggle to do anything with money. Democrats are a joke. They have no platform, no candidates, nothing.
What is really amazing is the news is against republicans (for the most part - we do have some allies), our lobbyists go to jail, our governors go to jail, our representatives are constantly under investigation and now we have one resigning for maybe the sickest thing I have seen since the Catholic Church forgot that the wine is only symbolic not to be used to get young boys drunk and in bed.
The GOP is obviously the superior party because we win. Now only if we can a strong wind to blow that stupid Blago hair piece off his head myabe JBT can pick up some votes.
Comment by Logical GOP Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 2:14 pm
For somebody who claims to be logical, GOP Logical hasn’t shown much logic.
A few points worth noting:
In 2004, Sen. Kerry came within only a few votes in Ohio of winning.
In 2002, George Bush lost the popular vote.
In 2004, the Democrats had a net gain nationally of state legislative seats.
In Illinois, the Republicans think Alan Keyes was a good idea.
Now, you said something about being superior because you win? Want to explain what exactly you have won?
Comment by Skeeter Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 2:20 pm
Skeeter-
You can come within one vote, I don’t care you lost. You’ll lose again don’t worry. Bush may have lost the popular vote, but you lost the election, again what’s more important. You can have net gain, you still lost. Alan Keyes was a horrible idea, what can I say we wanted to give you a win we felt a little sorry. I mean heck we won the congress even when the dems won the presidency. It’s a joke. What Foley did is disgusting. Hastert didn’t cover anything up, just like Democratic leaders weren’t covering up the $100,000 Jefferson had was found in his freezer - now we know where those FEMA checks went - you even rob from your own people.
Hastert is the speaker of the house - a pretty busy position if you ask me. Did his staff let him down by not leading him to believe how important of an issue this Foley could be or did they not even really know? All in all it isn’t Hastert’s fault, it’s the sick and dimented (should be a Democrat) Mark Foley. He’s the only to blame. Plain and Simple. But once again Dem’s point fingers because you’re tired of losing.
If you want a win get a legitimate candidate. Duckworth isn’t - she’s a crippled war vet - sounds cruel but it’s the fact, no political or government knowledge. Bean was lucky. Karen Gonzales (85th district) is a hack - couldn’t even win a township clerk race. But these are your candidates. Try again next year please.
Comment by Logical GOP Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 2:32 pm
Logical:
Funny you would mention $100,000,
How much did Foley give Reynolds to try and keep Reynolds quiet?
You got it — $100,000. This $100,000 was not put in a freezer. This $100,00 was put in the grubby little paws of the RNCC.
Comment by Skeeter Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 2:37 pm
Skeet, 100,000 is a few votes? IO think If you combine the total deficit fo Bush in WI, NM and a couple other states, they don’t total that.
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 2:42 pm
Republicans nationally are off message and divided. Republican turnout in key congessional races is depressed because the Republican base - the”moral majority” is very unhappy about Foley scandal. They were already unhappy!
Republican commenters trying to spin the Foley situation as a Democratic dirty trick are in deep denial!
Democrats are almost certain to take over the House of Represntatives. Bean and Duckworth will win - Foley scandal puts them over the top.
Local dynamics drive the outcome of the gubernatorial race and CCB President. Foley case makes Topinka and Peraica uphill battle more difficult, butI don’t see a direct impact.
democrats will take over the House in 2006, and the Senate in 2008.
Comment by Captain America Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 2:50 pm
I agree it helps Duckworth. Roskam came out this week defending Hastert and his leadership. Give him credit for loyalty. Anything the Republican congressional leadership does is just fine by him–even looking the other way while a Congressmen preyed on kids entrusted to their care.
Comment by Western Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:03 pm
What you are saying is absolutely not true. Republicans nationally are consolidated on issues more now than in any recent past, only in Illinois do we drive ourselves out of business. Peraicia never had a chance nor will any republican in sesspool of cook county. Talk about a corrupt Democratic machine look no further than the largest county in the state of illinois.
I’m not trying to spin the Foley situation at all, but to blast Republican leaders for what that scumbag did is out of whack. He’s a pervert and will be punished for it, it’s not the party’s fault, it wasn’t the party’s fault when Kennedy buried his dead hooker under the bridge in Mass. after they drove off of it. I mean these scandals date far back in history on both sides of the aisle. Look at the facts….Foley tried to have relations with a male child. Period.
Republicans will maintain the house in 2006. Hastert will serve his last term as Speaker before he retires. Too early to tell for 2008, but depending on presidential candidates (McCain or Giuliani) we will maintain that majority as well.
Comment by Logical GOP Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:08 pm
Logical GOP, are you concerned that Shimkus had enough information he should have asked more questions and dug deeper?
If Hastert did learn enough to suspect Foley was trying to bugger the pages, do you think Denny would demand a complete investigation? Or would he do the ostrich thing and try to remain ignorant?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:10 pm
Duckworth will win. You can put it on the board.
When Roskam needs an extra $250,000 to stay in the game the NRCC money will have already been committed to defending some incumbent.
There is no breaking news that is good news for Republicans. And if Bush starts a war with Iran to try to help the GOP there will be a backlash.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:14 pm
Carl-
What I think we need to remember is that the facts have stated that “Key Staff in Leadership” , i.e. Hastert’s staff was made aware of the situation. To what extent no one knows. No one can stick to the same story and whoever is questioned, Reynolds, Shimkus, Fordham, etc…all says the same things it happened last year, two years ago, etc. that they made Denny’s staff aware.
How I look at this is, is some Congressional staffer in passing - maybe in the hall during a debate or at one of Abrahamoff’s cocktail functions- told Hastert’s staff that “rumor has it Foley is sending emails to ex-pages and that he is being a quite creepy”. Maybe the situation wasn’t handled the best by anyone.
I’m just saying the fact is Foley is too blame no one else. And this, just like many other “scandals” won’t effect the GOP races like some are stating they will.
It will come down to the fact that the Dem’s once again do not have worthy candidate for public office. It is borderline disrespectful how they pick people to serve in government for their party, like they have no qualifying factors. Whoever the most sorriest or camera friendly person is they will run.
Comment by Logical GOP Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:21 pm
Fox polling suggests Hastert is a liability for Republican House candidates across the country. One analysis suggests Hastert staying on could mean thirty more seats tip from Republican to Democrat.
Na, na, na, na
Na, na, na, na
Hey, hey, hey
Goodbye
The GOP powerbrokers are writing the script now. Hastert will resign as directed by his bosses.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:22 pm
The GOP has already announced it is doubling what the Dem’s will spend on races. You’re still living in Bill Clinton’s shadow, the party is so pothetic they will run his wife for president just to hang onto the Clinton Legacy - whatever that is.
Come 11th hour election mode the NRCC will throw money around like you have never seen before. They always do. Remember not all the D candidates have Blago money, and that will be a factor.
Comment by Logical GOP Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:24 pm
Logical GOP, where’s the money going to come from? Are those slush funds filled with money embezzled from the Iraq War?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:32 pm
You must be a complainer and not a contributor to your party. The GOP is probably the greatest money raising organization (second maybe only to the catholic church) in the country. Just ask one of the several hundred rangers who raise over $500,000 each for the President. They do this also for the National party.
Comment by Logical GOP Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:34 pm
I hear Blagojevich is good at raising money from state contractors. And Stroger is good at shaking down county employees.
How many of the people writing big checks to Cult Bush have made even more money off government contracts and other kickbacks? And what about the billions unaccounted for from Iraq?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:41 pm
The kid was not a teen when this happened, no laws were broken. (The age of consent in DC is 16.)
Now I certainly don’t approve of Foley’s actions, but I certainly don’t see why people are calling for Hastert to step down.
Comment by downstateyp Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:41 pm
GOP did have a 50/50 chance of keeping Congress. Now zero chance of keeping the House. Probably keep the Senate by a seat or two, despite themselves.
In Illinois, total collapse of what’s left of the Illinois GOP. Topinka goes from single digit loss, to double digit. Some of the GOP statewides won’t break 30%, like Umholtz, if he’s even still around as rumored.
GOP also goes to an even smaller minority in the state house and senate.
Republicans are more disgusted now than I’ve ever seen them, and it’s getting worse by the day. All the chickens are coming home to roost from years of mismanagement and incompetence.
The Dems on the other hand seem relatively fired up. That’s all it takes.
Comment by RealClear Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:43 pm
Downstateyp. You and I must have differing views from the way our elected officials should conduct themselves while in office. Not only that but I would hope not many people share your opininion on a 16 year old being underage or not. That is sick. Party cheerleaders like yourself are a disgrace.
Comment by downstate democ Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:51 pm
This debate is boring, too many partisan hacks to have a real debate on this…politics sucks.
Comment by Tsugua Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:55 pm
Shimkus will have a dump a $1 million to save his butt — and then wind up in the minority, and face a lot of quality time with the FBI
Bean and Duckworth will win.
Wonder what th tracking polls tell us about Kirk
I expect he’ll be on Chicago TV real soon.
Call it RunningScaredpalooza.
Comment by BonVoyage John Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 3:59 pm
WGN’s mad at Hastert after he cancelled on them last night. Channel 9 featured some highly critical district residents saying he should go.
There is now a (small) possibility that Laesch could beat Hastert. I don’t think it will happen, but if it does, it will mean the wave is massive and Republicans will lose (as the Fox poll claims_ upwards of 50 seats. Stover is now a threat. Seals already was. Duckworth seems to have the upper hand over Roskam now.
I’m guessing we will see something like a 235-200 Democratic advantage in the House and either a 50-50 split in the Senate or one party gets a one-seat advantage (Tennessee and Missouri are bound to be very close races no matter what the polls show now).
Comment by Boone Logan Square Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 4:17 pm
Um, downstateyp, you keep sticking to those talking points. “Rep. Foley did nothing wrong. The young boy he was stalking was 16.”
Here’s a fact for you: e-mails and instant messages sent across state lines are governed by federal law, not DC law. In addition, since the boy was in Louisiana, he’s also protected by their laws. And any messages sent by Foley from home (some were) are governed by Florida law.
Depending on how much they knew — or should hav known — and when, Shimkus and Hastert might also be covered by conspiracy laws or be considered accessories after the fact.
To wit: Foley/Hastert/Shimkus are screwed three different ways.
Rob — sticks and stones may break my bones, but we can finish this discussion after the election.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 4:18 pm
downstateyp, Do you have kids? You want them getting emails like that and going out to dinner with somebody like that?
I don’t care if the boys were 6 or 16 — it’s morally wrong and the GOP covered it up and it took a single Republican (yes, Republican) of conscience to talk to ABC News to make the story public.
Dems had nothing to do with Rep. Foley sending the messages.
Dems had nothing to do convincing Rep. Foley to run for reelection.
Dems had nothing to do with informing Shimkus, Hastert, Reynolds or Boehner about the affair.
Dems were kept in the dark about it. Even Fox News joined in the cover-up and kept things quiet when they found out about it last year.
It wasn’t until a Republican staffer talked to ABC that things became public — so much for Hastert and Shimkus blaming anyone else for their ineptitude.
Comment by NW burbs Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 4:24 pm
GOP leadership protection of Foley’s secret in order to maintain his incumbency and relection campaign means his campaign fundraising is a fraud. The NRCC is morally burdened to return/donate any money they recieved from Foley ($100k). If they don’t, all members of the upright citizens brigade (Roskam, etc) are morally obligated to return that tainted money received from the NRCC. Get out your checkbooks Illinois Republican Congressional candidates because the NRCC says they’re keeping the money. Those who don’t return the money ASAP are implicit in the scandal.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 4:40 pm
You keep thinking that Logical GOP, it will make your fall on November 7th that much funnier. What you and your fellow illogical GOPer’s can’t stand is the fact that your party is waning and you know it. Less people in Illinois are willing to identify themselves as republicans. In WIll County it’s even worse. All the republican seats on the county board are being contested while none of the democratic seats are. The GOP is going down November 7th, and you can take that to the bank.
And as far as Blago goes he hasn’t been charged with anything. He hasn’t been convicted of anything. He hasn’t even been officially accused of anything. In that regard, at least, he’s one up on your good pal and unindicted co-conspirator Roger Claar.
Comment by TruthBeTold Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 5:04 pm
(Il)logical gop:
Did it make you feel good to call a true American hero “a crippled war vet”? You’re the one who’s pothetic [sic].
Comment by Crow Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 5:16 pm
This will definitely have an impact on the 6th and 8th Congressional District races. It may in the Granberg state Rep race because of Shimkus’ involvement but more evidence of Shimkus neglect will have to come out before it makes a major impact on that race.
For those screaming “Mel Reynolds! Mel Reynolds!” the two situations are not even close. The Democratic controled House investigated and finally pushed Reynolds to resign (Reynolds was pissed that folks in his own party were so vocal in getting him to leave.) Reynolds next was prosecuted by a Democratic District Attorney (Eric Holder).
In contrast, Republicans knew about Foley’s behavior and tried to cover it up. Hastert was told and did nothing. According to the Sun-Times today, Reynolds asked Mark Foley to stay in his race when Foley thought about retiring.
You don’t have to listen to Democrats on this. Republicans are the ones pointing out the failures of their own leadership.
This is a Republican scandal. It is not even close to the Reynolds situation in 1995.
Comment by Minion Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 6:35 pm
I don’t think there is a snowballs chance in Hades that Hastert will lose his seat. There is no one running against him of any note. Blago won’t lose his seat either, same reason, but if one of the two of them where going to, it would be Blago.
Comment by annoyed Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 6:53 pm
Oh my God…can we go one day without someone using the “way to use the talking points” comment? My goodness.
Comment by Curt Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 7:45 pm
Curt,
When folks stop using weak talking points, that “way to use the talking points” comment will be rendered unecessary.
Comment by NW burbs Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 7:56 pm
The Blago effect downstate may hurt many candidates for state legislature. Bob Flider winning last time with a Madigan big money ran an ad campaign against Scot England that distasteful. This Flider is getting a taste of what Madigan gave poor Scot. Paybacks are….
The problem is going to be turnout.
Giannoulias had a rally and one person showed up.
Alex was shock by lack of response. Hope the democrats are not shocked by the turnout in November.
Blago could cost the democrats the county board and Flider.
Comment by decatur boy Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 8:18 pm
It is surprising that today saw no new bombshells on Foley. I’ve been expecting to hear about some liason or attempted seduction - but nothing. Given the feeding frezy of the press, we would know by now if such a story was out there.
If all we are talking about a creep sending lewd e-mails to a 16 year old former (not current) page, and Shimkus met the family’s request by instucting Foley to cease contact, this story is going to run out of legs, and Hastert will not need to resign.
The serious damage to GOP hopes to keep the House, however, is still there, and will be there on Nov. 7.
Comment by Bubs Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 8:29 pm
Hastert made a bad move by locking himself up in his house for three days. It made it look like HE had done something worse than Foley. Then again, it’s not the crime, it’s the cover-up. Whenever a politician goes into hiding, you know it’s beginning of the end.
That said, Hastert and Shimkus will barely win re-election. Hastert will resign following the election. Nobody will care enough about Shimkus to even remember that he was part of all this after the election. Then Hastert take all the money he’s made from his suspicious land deals and go live somewhere warm and sunny.
Comment by M.V. Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 8:38 pm
decatur,
You expect people to show up in droves for Giannnoulias? How many people even know who this guy is? Let alone show up to a “rally” 5 weeks from election day.
(Il)Logical GOP, who’s winning? Very smug comments considering which party has the majority in Illinois. Remember when your party drew the state districts in the Nineties and Mike Madigan still controlled the House 8 out of those 10 years? Yep, Madigan is still speaker and will be until he decides he doesn’t want the job anymore. Oh, and calling a disabled vet a cripple? Very classy.
Comment by Rattlehead Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 10:38 pm
This matter is now being investigated by the house ethics committee. Why didn’t Shimkus demand an imediate investigation,didn’t any red flags go off in his head? I wonder how much money Foley donated to Shimkus and what is his intentions as to the disposition of those funds. He claims he didn’t do anything wrong but it looks to me that he didn’t do anything right. Unless protecting the good old boy republican majority was more important than protecting the children from a pedophile. WHAT WAS HE THINKING?
Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 10:52 pm
How, pray tell, was Bush supposed to win the popular vote in 2002?
Comment by T.J. Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 1:14 am
Well, I don’t know, the Foley matter could go away before the election. Especially, as I said earlier, if prominent Democrats are indicted by the feds re the Stuart Levine matter.
Denny Hastert seems to have suddenly changed tack, suggesting that somebody with a brain is now running his crisis response to the Foley matter. He is taking full responsibility, supporting the investigation, all those things the books tell ceo’s to do in a crisis. No more ducking and weaving. He could turn this around yet into a positive for himself, especially if he sponsors some kind of strong page protection laws and regs.
I still say that given her lukewarm initial response, which headline-only-readers could
interpret as meaning she is “reserving judgement” on Foley’s guilt, not Hastert’s response, could damage JBT, especially among families with kids. So she should also consult with a crisis management group although her campaign staff is sufficiently clueless that they likely think that they, amateurs can handle this on their own.
Comment by Cassandra Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 7:47 am
just had to chime in! reading what “decatur boy” has to say peaked my interest! With regard to the Zinga-Hare race, I think Hare had it won before the pages debacle and will receive more votes as a result of this mess on Nov 07. Regarding the Flider - Cain state rep race; this is just going to get real mean on both sides in the weeks to come. A couple of weeks ago I would say Flider will be reelected. Not so sure now. This will go down to the wire as Flider’s connection to Ameren pulls him down. this is a real hot issue with folks that are sick of ever increasing energy costs. On the local level; there is a real problem brewing with the reelection of the county board chairman wolfe and at least one of his trusted dem. cty board members. Its called credibility. If he has any, it must be well hidden in his shoe. The buzz is a man by the name of Dan Luka will defeat wolfe on Nov 07. Looking forward to the end of this election season!
Comment by HUMPS Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 9:07 am
Once again, it comes down to the public trust. The voters are more sophisticated than any of you give them credit for. The working class is demoralized; Iraq/terrorism, the real economy, and this dichotomy between what the politicians say and what they do (family values for instance). We will see this play out in November: the Rs will stay home, the Ds will come boiling out of the woodwork, and the undecided will perform as poorly as usual. It ain’t rocket science. The greatest challenge will be for the Democrats to take the high road with the re-found power. I hope we are up to the challenge.
Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 1:20 pm
All of this is quite partisan here and no one would like to admit the facts - other than I - A sick GOP congressman did some very sick things. Whether they were legal, illegal, good intentioned or not. He was in a position of authority, leadership and responsibility and what he did was uncalled for and sick.
That is why he has been forced to resign. To think that the leadership knew what was going on is sick in your minds. If Hastert knew so did the Democratic leadership, it’s that simple. So I believe no one knew (to this extent) how serious this issue was. They would of squashed (GOP) or exploited (DEMS) it when it first started if they knew.
I mean geez Hastert is a father, grandfather, coach, and teacher - and I know personally that he couldn’t live with himself if he allowed this to go on. Attack the predator and support the victim - leave the politics out of it.
Truth be told-
Where your comments about Will County and Claar come from I’m not sure. You obviously have some bent up frustration. You should seek help for that. Will County is definitely a changing political arena. I agree. But like many have said voters aren’t stupid. To assume that they don’t see that there are not credible democrat candidates running for office in Will County is blind. The GOP base in Will County will be out in full force to make sure that our government is not handed over to Madigan’s and Walsh’s hacks who have no experience or proficiency in politics or government.
Madigan is a great speaker for Illinois the only person who might keep Blago from sellign the entire state to his cronies. But your Will County candidates are a joke.
And as far as Claar, he’s done more for a once struggling community than ever imagined, and has worked better to benefit Will County and Illinois with people from both sides of the aisle than just about anyone. Even the Democratic legislators recognize that. So check your facts before you run off at the mouth.
Comment by Logical GOP Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 1:53 pm
Logical GOP –
The Republican leadership has said they knew. What’s in question is how much they knew and when. But Hastert himself has said he overlooked “red flags” (he called them “red flags”).
The boys are the victims, not Hastert. Get a grip.
And, no, if Hastert knew the Dems wouldn’t necessarily know. In fact, Rep. Shimkus is chair of the three person Page Board — he didn’t tell the other two people (one GOP, one Dem). The Republicans have routinely shut the Democrats out of negotiations, discussions, and updates. Moreover, ABC News has revealed that its original sources were Republicans (GOP staffers, GOP-leaning pages, etc) — not Democrats.
What makes you think any Republican told any Democrat any of this?
It is you, Logical GOP, who is ignoring a whole slew of facts we already know, which are damning enough in and of themselves.
Comment by NW burbs Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:00 pm
just because the news reports it does not make it fact, actually most often it makes it quite the opposite.
i suspect that if this was as rampant a cover-up as people suggest, then the Dems would know. I’ve spent time on the Hill and with quite a few lobbyists and legislators - and the “grape-vine” of news is quite real. D.C. is a small town when it comes to scandal.
I also agree the teen here is the victim, foley is the predator, but hastert is nothing. he is the speaker, he did nothing wrong, and leave it that way. Let’s not dig for additional scapegoats, punish Foley, help the teen and move on to passing the omnibus and other real issues in Congress.
Comment by Logical GOP Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:08 pm
Your candidates should win you office, not scandals about the other party. I find it shameful that the only thing that rallies democratic voters is scandals about republicans, why can’t democratic candidates rally their own voters based on democratic agendas and principles??
Why? Because they don’t have an agenda, priniciples, or credible candidates. They only have republican scandals. They should be thanking the GOP - we provide them with their campaign, platform, and voters.
Comment by Logical GOP Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:11 pm
For somebody calling himself “logical”, there is an amazing lack of logic in his posts.
Please provide any evidence that any Democrats knew.
Why do we suspect that Logical is a College Republican? The posts are filled with the kind of mindless rhetoric combined with a lack of historical perspective that you see from those people.
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:11 pm
Logical,
Next study hall, look up “Bill Clinton.” Tell me what you find about the Republicans and charges of scandal to motivate voters.
Really, your posts are ridiculous.
The Democrats have an agenda and the Republicans have nothing other than “The Democrats are weak.” There GOP has nothing else to offer.
Pathetic.
Now run along.
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:16 pm
Skeeter-
Actually I’m not nor never was a College Republican. People have chosen to ignore historical perspective. If we look at it there is a great hypocrisy in the case that the Dems’ are making. We all read the same stuff and hear the same “facts” how you interpret them I guess leads us back to our political beliefs. There was a great editorial in the Tribune this morning written by a Democrat discussing this very hypocrisy. I’ve posted link for you:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0610060340oct06,1,3607742.story
All I’m saying is focus on the facts we know and those are what Foley did. Everything else is political rhetoric. There are real issues to deal with in government. If the Dems are so worthy then let your candidates win, on your merits and reputation not on the blunders of someone else.
Comment by Logical GOP Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:20 pm
Going into Iraq without a plan: Blunder.
Going into Iraq without body armor for the troops: Blunder.
Sen. Frist’s plan to surrender to the Taliban: Blunder.
Failing to secure our borders: Blunder.
Failing to secure our ports: Blunder.
Failing to secure our chemical plants: Blunder.
Failing to respond to Hurricane Katrina: Blunder.
Massive federal deficits: Blunder.
A massive new welfare presciption drug plan: Blunder.
Failing even to protect Congressional pages: Blunder.
Accepting campaign cash from somebody who sends offensive IMs to kids: Blunder.
Sure this election might be about blunders. With the Republican record, it should be. Republicans have been given control of our federal government, and every move they have made has been a blunder. The Foley matter is not the worst blunder. It is just the most recent.
With a record like that, the voters are going to see that it is time to get rid of the blunderers. It is time for competence in government. Our nation is at war. We can’t stand the risk of being lead by those who blunder.
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:29 pm
“There was a great editorial in the Tribune this morning written by a Democrat.”
I’ll bet he loses his job at the National Review when they discover Jonah is a Democrat. Wrong. Again.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:30 pm
Political rhetoric aside, things are a mess. The Dems main shortfalls are: allowing the Iraq mess to proceed by its own accord, watching wage disparity continually widen as undeserved tax breaks are handed to top earners, and letting our constitutional government be steamrolled over shadow issues. Furthermore, Foley is not the beginning of GOP woes. Cunningham, Ney, and Delay are some names that immediately come to mind. There is a pattern! So, don’t try to lay this all on the latest scandal. Do not take all of us for fools!
Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:34 pm
47th,
You are so ignorant.
The Chicago Tribune and the National Review are both part of the mainstream media, which makes them, by definition, liberals and Democrats.
According to our Logical friend, everybody is a liberal Democrat other than those working for FoxNews, which has the only fair and unbiased coverage.
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 3:43 pm
The dems have a liability in Chicago which is just now becoming apparent, HB 4050. Madigan and Blago have virtually shut down the real estate market in about 1/3 of Chicago. Interesting article in Sun Times 10/5.
For those who do not know, buying a house in the affected area now requires the approval of the State of Illinois.
Comment by DRB Friday, Oct 6, 06 @ 11:41 pm
You know, this just goes to show that not all Republicans are socially conservative homophobes! Yes, there are gay guys IN the GOP!
And it is the liberals who are up in a tizzy over this, but who said nothing about Bubba and Monica, even though SHE was an employee.
No, really. I get that there’s a difference between a minor and an adult intern, but still. Where were the Democrats when Clinton was spinning everything about what the meaning of the word “is” is? “Everyone does it” is what they said. Yeah? Well? Then why didn’t he just ‘fess up so Ken Starr would shut up already about all of the sordid details?
Please, you lefties. Help out when both parties get into these scandals with the help.
As for the fallout, I think the Log Cabin Republicans are hiding under a rock as a result of all this (laugh). Not sure how it’ll play out as far as other voters go, though. I suspect everyone is just plain sick of all of this nonsense, to be honest.
Comment by Angie Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 1:07 am