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In the worst of his personal scenarios, Rauner does not run for a second term.
He goes back to one of his seven homes and two ranches. He pops open one of those exclusive bottles of California wine as his friends pat him on the back for giving it his all.
That sounds like a damn good alternative for a man with little to lose.
Rauner knows that.
So does Madigan.
Yeah, and what folks are failing to realize is that Madigan may be willing to “help along” that very scenario: Make Rauner’s life so miserable that he leaves office after a single term.
Something to think about while everyone seems to be cheerleading for war.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:02 am
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Wow. If that is the long game for the next 2.5 years, hoping, it’s only a hope, that Rauner might walk, things won’t be getting better any time sooner.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:06 am
…and that last year, as a lame duck, not engaged in running again, that has a possibility of being even less civil.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:08 am
I think that is part of Madigan’s end game for sure. Gov. Rauner threatens Madigan’s power. Madigan has always been willing to do what it takes to keep himself in command.
Comment by Peoria Guy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:09 am
We really reached this point of thought pretty early, didn’t we?
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:10 am
I get it. Rauner wants what he wants, and the Dems, as the Speaker says, are not going to sacrifice their core beliefs, in order to compromise with a right wing zealot.
So, war it is. It’s a terrible thing, but it is what it is. No one wants it, but just because the guy got elected for not being Pat Quinn, doesn’t give him the mandate that he thinks he has to implement what he wants.
Comment by PublicServant Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:12 am
I don’t know, Rauner strikes me as the vindictive type. Even if Madigan makes life miserable Rauner would relish the opportunity to return the favor.
Comment by PMcP Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:14 am
Gov Rauner wants to change the way things are done in Springfield, and change is difficult for people. I, for one, do not want the same old, same old in Springfield. That has led us to near bankrupcy
Comment by Peoria Guy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:14 am
PMcP, Madigan invented “vindictive”
Comment by Peoria Guy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:15 am
I never anticipated Rauner would want to be gov for 2 terms. I don’t think he has the patience or interest. I always thought he wanted to see if he could get some traction to be VP and/or President.
Comment by Chicago Guy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:17 am
Can Madigan make Gov. Rauner’s life so miserable?
Perhaps if Gov. Rauner’s life revolved exclusively around politics. But he is so wealthy that Illinois politics can be relegated to a minor facet of his life. He is so wealthy that he doesn’t need to care about legacy and may relish whatever Madigan dishes out just to see if he can return it. He is so wealthy that he could seek re-election just to spite Madigan.
The tactics one would use to frustrate a Quinn or a Blago won’t necessarity work with a man like Rauner.
Comment by Cook County Commoner Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:20 am
And if he calls it quits early, we can take comfort that he has a well qualified lt gov who is an integral part of the team ….. /s
Comment by The Way I See It Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:21 am
Cheerleading for tax increases? The words for today are “Budget” and “Zero-Sum”.
Comment by Weltschmerz Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:24 am
I see it the other way, Rauner grinding down the Velvet Hammer. Madigan clearly is having an uncomfortable continuous session. Sure, he’s been able to wait out all others, but Rauner is very, very different. And Madigan ain’t getting any younger.
Comment by Georg Sande Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:25 am
===Gov Rauner wants to change the way things are done in Springfield, and change is difficult for people. I, for one, do not want the same old, same old in Springfield. That has led us to near bankrupcy===
Agreed, but let’s define the “same old” thing. The “same old” too low to pay our bills, antiquated sales and flat 3% income tax rate are what has led us to “near bankruptcy”.
Comment by PublicServant Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:28 am
==Gov Rauner wants to change the way things are done in Springfield==
It’s a fallacy to think you can “change the way things are done in Springfield.” The only way to get what you want done is to figure out how to work within the system you are given. The quicker you accept that they better off you will be.
Comment by Demoralized Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:28 am
Meh, nobody has to be there. The governor could have done anything, anywhere, in the world when he retired, but chose to spend a lot of his and his ideological pals money to grab the hot seat in Springfield.
Personally, I would have chosen the south of France in summer and Goa in winter. But I’m not a politician jonesing for national media attention.
I’m not hung up on the personality clash. Rauner raised a lot of money from people around the country to pursue a reactionary agenda (one that he didn’t share during the campaign). They have to get something for their money.
What that something will be is a lot of noise. There simply aren’t the votes for much of ithe governor’s agenda in the General Assembly, and there could be no reasonable expectation that there would be.
Seriously, how many GOP votes do you think clean “Rauner bills” would get for right to work or prevailing wage?
If Rauner is sincere in pursuing his agenda, there is no short game, only a long one with mulitple election cycles.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:28 am
And in the process IL finally falls off the cliff. Is that what MM desires as his legacy???
I think Rauner is built different than most, I believe he relishes the battle, the negotiations, the chess match.
Comment by anon Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:29 am
Rauner has the resources to withstand a long war of attrition, if he chooses to do so. Madigan’s customary tactics may be of less use against his current gubernatorial opponent than other politicians.
If worse comes to worse, Rauner could import new voters into Madigan’s House District.
Comment by Under Further Review Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:31 am
Madigan hasn’t yet met his match. Neither has he battled a billionaire having a frolic in the political game. Rauner didn’t get his $ by being nice, and clearly likes/needs to win. Rauner ain’t Blago, who did have millions…….of things running simultaneously in that insufficient brain of his
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:33 am
What’s the likelihood that Rauner’s plan is to try for at least few wins (as opposed to 10,8,6) over the next 3 years, and then calls it quits because he’s more interested in moving into a certain house on Pennsylvania Avenue?
Comment by The Muse Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:33 am
Madigan’s law practice is his achilles heal, but will Rauner go to the mattresses on it.
I think yes.
Comment by Cassiopeia Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:35 am
The guy gets a glow in his face when the tv cameras turn on. He loves to talk about how he’s not a politician, but there is no denying he does love being the governor and the attention that comes with it.
This is a pipe dream. We are stuck with this guy. No way he quits.
Even if he accomplishes nothing because his agenda is too extreme - he will still just fly around the state talking about it all the time.
Comment by siriusly Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:36 am
Not a likely scenario. Probably not even a thought in either’s mind.
Madigan and Rauner are both playing for significant personal stakes that will trump any cushy retirement plans. Madigan’s timing for when he calls it quits might play some part.
Comment by walker Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:38 am
But in that scenario, Rauner goes to one of his seven homes as a failure, and that is something that would no doubt make him cry in his really expensive Cab.
Comment by tominchicago Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:39 am
Of course Madigan is willing to help Rauner walk. The next Governor will have the opportunity to veto a Dem remap. Keeping a Dem majority is and will always be a priority for Madigan. If he sees a path to lead a GOP gov out of the mansion, he’ll take it. That priority will also mean that Madigan will try to avoid actions that will jeopardize that majority.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:39 am
=== Probably not even a thought in either’s mind. ===
Don’t kid yourself.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:39 am
Like others in the media, Harris is under the mistaken impression that the current standoff is over the budget.
They haven’t even gotten to the budget yet. And both sides are in agreement on the need for billions in new revenue.
The current standoff revolves around Rauner’s need to raise a squawk for his donors on the agenda he cant get, and Madigan’s desire to get as many GOP votes as possible on the coming tax increase.
Nothing personal, just business.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:40 am
=…. just because the guy got elected for not being Pat Quinn, doesn’t give him the mandate that he thinks he has to implement what he wants.=
Yeah it kinda does. Rauner got 50%+1. Now he doesn’t have the GA behind him, so it is difficult to implement anything. But he feels the long-term (reforming Springfield) trumps the short-term (passing a budget). And if there is collateral damage, so be it.
Comment by Bogey Golfer Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:44 am
My reading — and I’m not in the know, so obviously those folks will snicker — is that Rauner may be in for one term but will use this single term as the spring for the national stage. In other words, what happens here — everything — is something carefully written for the moment Rauner announces national ambitions. Running for prez, I assume — exactly, exactly like Walker — but with far less ineptness.
I’m guessing Rauner’s keeping tabs on Walker’s various missteps so that when he runs — or talks about running — he’ll be Walker-and-then-some.
I can’t imaging even a rich guy — someone as uncharismatic as Rauner — would simply throw it in after four years. That’s his definition of failure — giving up — not anything he actually does or doesn’t do for the state. It’s all personal — and has nothing to do with his (apparently) beloved cabinet or his (apparently) beloved state.
It’s vanity.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:45 am
=Rauner does not run for a second term.=
I know a lot of people that hope Rauner will go away quietly at the end of his first term.
Comment by DuPage Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:45 am
The current standoff is all about Rauner postin’ somethin’ that will look like a “win” over Ds in Obamas state. It will be used in ‘16 as BVR emerges from the carnage of the GOPie primaries to offer himself as the only GOPie who beat Clinton. A second term was never on the to do list. This crew is havin’ a hard time understandin’ how the claim victory when it is right in front of them.
They ought to talk to JRT rather than BlinkyJim.
Comment by Anonin' Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:49 am
Rauner will never be a “failure” in his own mind. It’s always been someone else’s fault when things went south in companies he owned.
Even failure to get his Turnaround items done in Illinois can be positioned as a positive for a national run, as the brave, unbowed champion of the right. He’s got a little Santorum in him.
Comment by walker Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:50 am
“I think Rauner is built different than most, I believe he relishes the battle, the negotiations, the chess match.”
He relishes the battle, but you can’t win chess with howitzers.
Comment by Nick Name Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:50 am
Madigan is 73, Rauner is 58. They presumably have *very* different retirement plans, and indeed whether MJM has *any* retirement plan whatsoever should be a major factor here. Serve til 2022?
Comment by The Historian Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:50 am
Could the entire scenario change with the election of a Republican president in 2016?
Is a Democrat president from Illinois keeping the Feds from sniffing around Springfield politicians now? Would that change if a Republican were elected president next year?
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:51 am
“Something to think about while everyone seems to be cheerleading for war.”
I may have said this before, but I think a review of the posturing, brinkmanship, breast-beating and psychology that lead Europe’s great powers into the first World War gives some startling insight into the goings-on in Springfield.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:51 am
By the 2nd term he is a politician. There would be no escaping that label any longer.
I think he is there is duke it out and then try and hit the National stage (as others mentioned)faster than Scott Walker.
Comment by Belle Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:52 am
BTW — the real frightening issue — and one I’m waiting for someone like Zorn to write about — is that Rauner sees dissent and division as a metric of success. The louder the nay-sayers, the more it means, “You’re doing a great job, Bruce.”
He’ll take agreement, of course. But he knows his approach is as partisan as it comes. So any agreement has none of the pleasure dissension. This also means that the more people dislike him — the more people say he can’t possibly win a second term — the more he’ll see this as a mission.
Rauner sees himself as an exhortor. He’s vain enough to assume that’s it’s a conversion mission only he’s equipped to undertake. 150 years ago, he’d be traveling up and down the Mississippi, stopping at towns to stand on the levees and speak the crowds.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:52 am
=== I think Rauner is built different than most, I believe he relishes the battle, the negotiations, the chess match. ===
I’m sure he won’t quit, but I’ve seen frustration and anger in him. He’s not used to this arena. He can’t solve everything with his money. No he’s not relishing this, but he’s stubborn and will continue. Unless he learns from his mistakes, his frustration and anger will continue to build.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:57 am
I think word has this spot on. This is about what will the Dems give to get GOP votes on a revenue hike. The Governor has shown he can get swingy GOP votes to go his way this session, and Madigan’s ability to muster votes on his side is a given. Madigan seems to be pointing at his ceiling on Rauner’s non-budgetary items. That leaves the question as to where is Rauner’s floor on agenda items. It seems that Madigan hasn’t yet pushed enough out there to get close for negotiations on the details.
Comment by muon Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:57 am
Even if Rauner “succeeds” he can look to Sam Brownback for a future vision of what his political life will be like.
Comment by Bill White Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:58 am
@bogey:
“W” mistakenly thought he had political capitol to spend Social Security reform…he didn’t.
Neither does Rauner. The Prisons downstate (a HUGE industry) are Union AND Republican. Every Prison town that Bruce has tried to introduce his union busting agenda (not some imaginary “right to work” has been shot down. No one is home.
Comment by Jack Stephens Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:59 am
=== I may have said this before, but I think a review of the posturing, brinkmanship, breast-beating and psychology that lead Europe’s great powers into the first World War gives some startling insight into the goings-on in Springfield. ===
Yes you have. Not only do you have a point, I got some great recommendations for books to read. Thanks Word and Rich.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:59 am
I’m going to guess that if Rauner thinks there is a hint of that, it would drive him more to run again, both of these guys are not normal and are driven far more than the rest of us.
They might even have more in common than we realize and they would ever admit.
Comment by Ahoy! Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:00 am
One thing Rauner is not — and it’s clear from everything that’s going on — is a closer.
He’s not someone that can close a deal. He’ll frame the deal — and go all out to sell it — but he can’t close it.
A governor who can close would be nice. We haven’t had one in quite some time.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:00 am
==Don’t kid yourself==
You have better sources, and eyes on the targets. Rich
Madigan might want to make Rauner’s life miserable, for many reasons, but the end game that Rauner then retires is remote, from my outside view.
Comment by walker Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:01 am
Hopin’ the Hastert scandal doesn’t spill over to to distract BVR staffer and the rentals IL GOPie offices.
Comment by Anonin' Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:01 am
I always thought the “using” of Chris Christie was also Rauner’s opportunity to glom on when the goin’ was good, and bail on Christie once Rauner got all he could out of the relationship.
It wasn’t Christie helping Rauner, it was Rauner giving Christie an audition, Rauner said “next” and turned on Christie in hopes of taking his win beyond Springfield.
I still believe a Republican governor in Obama’s Illinois would be a great Commerce Secretary, Treasury Secretary, a cabinet spot with title, secret service, national TV, radio, speaking, and international stage as a “board member” but with all the perks of a CEO.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:02 am
A real chess player always wants a formidable foe. Blago and his crew were crazy and Quinn was inept. Rauner poses a challenge, and having him around makes the game interesting. I don’t think Madigan wants the game to end so soon.
Comment by Blah Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:03 am
= This is about what will the Dems give to get GOP votes on a revenue hike. =
If the Dems are smart what they should give for a revenue hike is “not much”
Comment by Bill White Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:03 am
== - Peoria Guy - Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:14 am:
Gov Rauner wants to change the way things are done in Springfield, and change is difficult for people. ==
How can you change something you don’t know or understand?
Comment by Blah Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:04 am
– Is a Democratic president keeping the Feds from sniffing around Springfield politicians now–
Of course. And he pardoned Blago and Rezko, and prevented the prosecution of Trips, just like the deep thinkers predicted.
Not only that, but a GOP president from Texas prevented St. Patrick of Fitzgerald from going after Madigan for eight years!
I hope you don’t drive a car.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:05 am
I have always said, never underestimate Speaker Madigan. But this time it may also be wise for Madigan not to underestimate the Governor. This Governor might be a little smarter, and obviously much wealthier, than any of his predecessors. Madigan may not have had such a capable adversary in the past.
Comment by One of the 35 Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:06 am
“How can you change something you don’t know or understand?”
You burn it down.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:07 am
Rauner’s election was as much about Illinoisan’s frustration with the disastrous path the Dems have taken them through over the last decade and a half as “love” for Rauner. You can bet a lot of life long Dems REALLY had to hold their nose to vote for a GOPer, but they knew that a change had to come.
The “voting difference makers” knew this was going to be a contentious, bloody fight to right the ship, and I don’t think any serious person is surprised that Madigan is willing to fight necessary reform in Illinois to take care of his narrow political machine’s base.
Perhaps Rauner’s strategy is that if he keeps on attacking on multiple fronts, eventually Madigan won’t see them all as worth a fight and give some ground. That he’s willing to do ANYTHING about Workman’s Comp, no matter how small, shows the assaults are having effect. He must be getting feedback from the rank and file that refusing to address the state’s financial problems in any way and continuing the overspending relative to revenues is branding him and his party as the problem, not the solution.
Once he starts walking that slippery slope of common sense compromise, you can never tell where it may lead.
Comment by Arizona Bob Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:11 am
Rauner counts wins by the size of the bank account. If something buy goes bankrupt but you net a positive, it is a win. Everything else is just collateral noise. Madigan will protect his base so people come to him to get something done. Go after his base and the response will be ‘get off my lawn’. Two very different approaches to ‘it’s just business’.
Comment by zatoichi Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:13 am
@ Streator Curmudgeon - Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:51 am:
You might want to learn the parts of speech — any 8th-grade grammar book will give you the basics. But here’s a tip in the meantime:
“Democrat” is a noun. “Democratic” is the adjective form. Got it?
Comment by olddog Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:15 am
How miserable can you make life for a man with that much money?
Seriously, he’s not grinding it out in Springfield unless he wants to be. He’s sending surrogates to do the hard part. It’s not like he’s going on hunger strikes or anything.
He set up the “corrupt” Court and General Assembly to be the bad guys. Why does it matter to him if nothing gets done?
As long as he’s gettin’ to speechify, execute a little ol’ fashion leverage, prattle on about the people’s house, etc. What does he really care?
He’s loving hovering his $40 million dollar magnifying glass over the ants in the General Assembly.
Ideology over practicality.
Comment by Deep Yogurt Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:17 am
I’ve recently been thinking Rauner is torn between governing and putting on the show he’s putting on. When done well, governing can affect people’s lives in good and measurable ways. It’s a dream job, when you think about it. Unfortunately, he’s caught up in some kind of Koch Bros. scheme that’s just going to make a lot of good, hardworking people miserable.
Comment by Cheswick Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:19 am
=Madigan clearly is having an uncomfortable continuous session. =
For some reason that made me LOL.
Comment by Snucka Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:20 am
@Bogey-He was elected. Not disputing that. But his only mandate was don’t be Pat Quinn. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Comment by PublicServant Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:21 am
Madigan does not have a retirement plan. This is it. He also considers himself a political strategist above all else. He has not had such a capable adversary in the past, but I dont doubt he is enjoying making Rauner’s life miserable.
While he may be 70, the guy has no health issues that we know of. His health is probably the biggest wild card here.
Comment by Anon Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:22 am
I think both men relish the fight, neither going anywhere. Most Illinois citizens, except those who are financially capable of escaping this state, are stuck here watching Rome burn while two Neros fight over the fiddle.
Comment by illinoised Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:22 am
==Don’t kid yourself==
I have no doubt that MJM has contemplated it, at least in a “Meh, it’s worth a try” kinda way, but is there any indication that Governor Rauner is thinking about only one term? He’s publicly said he wants two…
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:22 am
Madigan/Cullerton scheduling session continuously throughout the summer keeps the focus on Springfield, keeps the press and the legislators here instead of the their districts. Dems get free camera time and coverage and can help control the message at a small price. Good tactics.
Comment by Half Time Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:23 am
Rauner is a low information idealogue. He is all in and believes what he is saying. (He may even think he is holding back.) his views are absolute, and exclude consideration of any contrary views. To the extent he pays lip service to anothers views, he ascribes them to corrupt influences.
Madigan can see his political sunset from here. He is not going to preside over managing a supermajority, but losing the war. And have that be his legacy. Though he wont get angry publicly, the insults are deeply personal.
The first legislative session and budget cycle set the tone for the next. Rauner wanted this war from the gitgo. The guy who squeezes obscene profit from nursing homes and the cost of medicine has no compunction against inflicting harm on the maost fragile. Lets get it on. He is tearing things up before the budget year has started, and before he even has the budget bill on his desk. Dont wish for war, you may come to regret it.
Comment by Langhorne Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:30 am
People have been guessing about what Madigan wants for more than a generation. It’s clear he wants to retain the gavel. Beyond that, I don’t think more than a handful of people know what else he wants.
I’d hope he’d consider his legacy at this particular moment in history. I think Rauner is an unserious person, but there are serious problems facing Illinois that need to be addressed. If steps are taken to correct some of these problems and modernize the state government in the next few years, Madigan can cement his legacy in a positive way.
If nothing gets done, well, that’s another way to cement his legacy, just not in a good way.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:35 am
@ Half Time
Yeah, but Dems aren’t in their districts, either. And I’m not sure how much control they’ll take when the Governor drops $30 million on ads.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:37 am
- PublicServant - Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:12 am:
“I get it. Rauner wants what he wants, and the Dems, as the Speaker says, are not going to sacrifice their core beliefs, in order to compromise with a right wing zealot.”
Microcosm of this blog since Rauner got on the scene:
D’s = “core beliefs”
R’s = “zealots”
So if the belief is not one of your core beliefs, its obviously something believed by zealots. Biased much?
And I think I am not the only one who believes the Rauner “mandate” was not anti-Quinn, it was anti-Madigan, i.e., we need to elect someone who can compete financially with the speaker, and who will stand up to him because he doesn’t care politically if he wins a second term or not.
Comment by Kodachrome Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:45 am
Half Time, I think you seriously overestimate the amount of time all but the most fervently politically engaged devote to the goings-on in Springfield in the summer.
And I’d wager most of those are not in the category of “persuadable.”
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:51 am
@Kodachrome I was quoting Madigan, when I used the phrase ‘core beliefs’. Zealot was mine, and I’m not backing away from that label a bit. You may have voted for your anti-madigan reasons, and you definitely got that, but the problem is that while he’ll continue to get your kudos for being the anti-madigan force that he surely is, it’s the damage he’s doing to the state in the meantime that is my concern.
Comment by PublicServant Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:56 am
= = I think I am not the only one who believes the Rauner “mandate” was not anti-Quinn, it was anti-Madigan = =
We can argue all we want, but this question won’t be answered until November 8, 2016 or November 6, 2018 or maybe even November 3, 2020.
= = =
Also too, the IL Dems have a deeper bench than the IL GOP - who among the General Assembly GOP is qualified to lead a majority party?
Bruce Rauner may be Madigan’s toughest adversary in a long time, but Team Rauner is kinda like Michael Jordan playing with a bunch of high school kids backing him up.
Comment by Bill White Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:57 am
Seems to me it is Rauner that is making Madigan’s life miserable right now.
I would not bet a single nickel that someone with Rauner’s competitive nature walks away from his pledge to serve only two terms. And to only serve two terms you have to run for two terms.
Comment by Meanderthal Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:57 am
===So if the belief is not one of your core beliefs, its obviously something believed by zealots. Biased much?===
How many Republican votes are there for right-to-work and prevailing wage? By my reckoning, not many, and certainly not enough. No more than half the GOP caucus in either chamber.
So, if even the members of his own party won’t support those issues, that makes Rauner a zealot for pushing a radical agenda. You may not like it, but it’s an accurate term.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:59 am
Illinois as the stage for political theatre.
Is it a drama or a comedy?
Comment by dupage dan Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:01 am
@kodachrome—-PS is one of the biggest dem homers here but you probably already know that.
Comment by anon Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:07 am
I didn’t vote for him PublicServant, I just think this blog overwhelmingly blames one, when in my view it is “they” that are doing it, not “him” - it takes two to tango. And 47th Ward, I think what Rauner was focused on just before 5/31/15 to make a deal were core beliefs of his party, not RTW and prevailing wage.
Comment by Kodachrome Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:09 am
I still believe Rauner is a rich man playing with his new, paid for toy. If he can’t win he’ll pass frustration into boredom. Mr. “I succeed in everything I do” will walk away at that point.
Comment by Wensicia Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:10 am
I find all this talk of a second term a mere few months into the first term disheartening and depressing. But if we’re going there, I want Rauner to run again and win by a landslide. Why? Because that will mean he got things done and turned this sad state around. And he would have done enough positive things to get voters to switch sides. Seems to be we’d all be better off in such a world.
I’m reminded in 2000 when one of my D friends said, “We’ll, I’m not upset that Bush won, because the economy is going in the tank and he’ll be blamed for it.” I thought really? You’re rooting for a bad economy over politics? Are we all that short-sighted? I want every elected official, regardless of party, to excel at their jobs.
Instead, I hear a lot of talk here about weathering the Rauner storm for a few years, accepting status quo, things can’t change. I change and adapt at my job daily. In fact, my work team regroups every two weeks to reassess how things are going and make the necessary changes. I expect nothing less from my elected officials.
Comment by nixit71 Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:12 am
Governor Rauner believes that Speaker Madigan is essentially in politics for self-gain and those of his cronies. He has said so repeatedly in different ways.
Governor Rauner has had some direct experience with this in relation to Stand for Children’s contribution to the Democrat candidates in return for passing Senate Bill 7 which restricted the bargaining rights of the Chicago Teachers Union. Jonah Edelman one of the founders of Stand for Children in this video explains how Bruce Rauner and others provided funding to the Stand for Children PAC that was passed directly on to Madigan supported Democrats https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kog8g9sTDSo
In this video, Edelman said some expected his group to fund Republican candidates. But Edelman said he realized Madigan was the game in Illinois and so he funded six of Madigan’s Democratic legislative candidates and only three Republicans.
So Governor Rauner believes Speaker Madigan essentially has no value system, no loyalty to the labor movement, or real belief in more generous social services. Governor Rauner may believe if Speaker Madigan can’t be bought, then he can be coopted through the use on continual pressure into agreeing with much of his conservative agenda. In the process Governor Rauner could become unelectable and that means little to him because a more moderate happy faced Republican or even a conservative Democrat who would inherit a State headed on the right path from Governor Rauner’s perspective.
So if in fact the key to Speaker Madigan’s strategy is to make Governor Rauner not re-electable, it is a strategy that does not grasp the larger agenda of Bruce Rauner.
Comment by Rod Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:17 am
===He goes back to one of his seven homes and two ranches. He pops open one of those exclusive bottles of California wine===
Wouldn’t it be cheaper/easier to have BVR buy some of these things for MJM and have them both go away? And then we can begin solving our problems!
Comment by BIG R.Ph Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:21 am
===What’s the likelihood that Rauner’s plan is to try for at least few wins (as opposed to 10,8,6) over the next 3 years, and then calls it quits because he’s more interested in moving into a certain house on Pennsylvania Avenue?===
Zero
Comment by Peoria Guy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:23 am
Fortunately, Melissa Harris could not be further from the truth. Harmless though.
Comment by The obvious Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:30 am
Rauner may decide he is equally willing to ==help== see Madigan into ==early== retirement.
2022 is distant, and 72 is a strenuous age to keep control of any caucus or party without a mobile phone.
Slim odds for now, but age is fickle. Rauner has the resources, nature and potential to be the one who outwits, outlasts and ==retires== the Speaker.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:31 am
=== Seems to me it is Rauner that is making Madigan’s life miserable right now. ===
Madigan’s dad passed away while he was still in law school.
The apple lunch isn’t just about discipline, it is also about austerity.
If anyone in the Rauner camp has any delusions that they are going to win a war of attrition against Madigan, someone should disavow them of their fantasies.
Comment by Juvenal Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:31 am
My theory, and I’ll admit it could be a hairbrained one, is that Rauner is eying a VP slot. The scenario i envision is the dozen or so Republican candidates battle it out to such a degree that the eventual nominee has to look outside for a running mate and Rauner will fit that bill.
Comment by G'Kar Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:38 am
The current situation in Springfield illustrates why politics is so intriguing. The psychological aspect is so often overlooked, but that IS politics. Of course we’re all supposed to pretend that the “greater good” is a goal in and of itself, and that politicians are simply going to automatically do whatever their constituents desire. If you look closely, though, all of these decisions are being made by individual human beings who are driven by their own personal experience.
Change does not come quickly in the political world simply because the executive branch (or any other branch) wants it to happen. Change comes only from good personal relationships and compromises on policy. Whether the Governor and the General Assembly are Democrats or Republicans, in the end they need to come to an agreement for which a majority of them can vote. That is in stark contrast to the business world, where a new CEO has much more freedom to set the agenda. The dynamic between a CEO and a Board of Directors, which Rauner knows so well, does not translate to government. It’s almost as if he wants to carry out a hostile takeover of the General Assembly, like one would do to a corporate Board.
A “war” may well drive down the Speaker’s approval rating. It would probably hurt the Governor’s as well. If Rauner believes that Speaker Madigan cares one whit about his own statewide approval rating, he is making a mistake. The governor, on the other hand, is elected by the entire state and so his statewide numbers matter. I just can’t see a protracted battle ending with Rauner having great approval ratings. Pat Quinn is gone, and that is what the voters wanted to accomplish last November. That election did not, however, change the state’s political makeup. Rauner seems to think that winning the election was a mandate to do whatever he wants to do. He needs to keep in mind that, in that same election, voters chose Democrats in 60% of House districts and 68% of Senate districts. Whether you think the map is fair or not, that is the current reality.
Personally, I could see Rauner deciding not to run again in 2018. On the other hand, he sees the mapmaking process as a big deal. That debate in 2020 will be existential to both political parties in a way that this year’s budget is not. I have a feeling that Rauner may just do whatever it takes to be governor when that battle takes place.
Comment by Snucka Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:41 am
Juvenal, I think public sentiment towards Madigan’s caucus over the next month or two is going to determine a lot, especially with attacks apparently scheduled to begin soon. He himself is pretty teflon, but most of the rest of the reps are not. While many here think BR has big plans for his political future, I believe he got into this with no intention of a second term for the same reason that he causes more of a problem for Madigan than any that came before - to be free of worry about reelection in his actions as Gov. I could be wrong, but . . . .
Comment by Kodachrome Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:48 am
In the long run, it’s going to come down to who handles the stress and frustration better. I’d say Madigan, with his longer government experience is better placed to do so. Rauner’s experience is about ordering things done, which doesn’t work as well in government and it seems he is already starting to show occasional anger.
Comment by RNUG Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:53 am
GKar, the governor might have pipe dreams of veepdom, but his dodgy business record precludes him from being considered by any potential nominee.
You think a GOP presidential candidate wants to go down to must-win Florida to talk about his running mate’s nursing home bustouts in the state?
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 11:55 am
We will know that Rauner is angling for higher office if and when he has a “change of heart’ about abortion rights. Clearly no GOP presidential or vice presidential candidate can be avowedly pro-choice, as Rauner was during the campaign. So until he does a Romney on this one issue, all speculation is baseless.
Comment by Eric Zorn Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 12:01 pm
- Eric Zorn -,
That’s what makes me think about a cabinet spot more than VP.
It’s more Rauner’s style. Head of something, CEO, “Big Pucture”, while getting the world stage in Commerce or with financial matters at Treasury…
… and the perks he can’t get, even as governor, but his wealth has afforded him but hasn’t snared; the title of “Secretary of ‘Blank’ of the United States of America”
If Romney should have taught Rauner one thing, it would be the national media won’t lay down and give him a pass like he got running for governor.
A cabinet spot scratches the itch, less the scrutiny.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 12:08 pm
And if he is gunning for a cabinet spot, that would explain the big rush to get everything done NOW.
Comment by CharlieKratos Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 12:33 pm
Who in their right mind would spend tens of millions gunning for a cabinet post? The only good ones are SoS, AG, and Treasury, and Rauner doesn’t have the bona fides for any of them.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 12:36 pm
- Wordslinger -,
You asked who in their right mind. Yep.
I also remember how terrified Rauner got when any comparison to Romney was made. Rauner went out of his way to make it clear he’s not Romney, but had no record to say otherwise.
I’m trying to see why he would think he could win a slot with the vetting and scrutiny for VP. Cabinet is a consolation prize.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 12:42 pm
==- Cook County Commoner - Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 9:20 am:==
Governor Rauner’s life revolves around the need for attention. Being a random private equity billionaire was not enough. He needed something big he could buy to make himself someone. He’ll be running for re-election.
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 1:08 pm
==- Eric Zorn - Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 12:01 pm:==
Rauner is not pro-choice. It was a bald-faced lie as his benefactor Jack Roeser said.
https://capitolfax.com/2014/11/01/false-flags-mixed-messages-diana-rauner-and-the-womens-vote/
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 1:11 pm
Wordslinger said this nugget of truth:
-”Rauner raised a lot of money from people around the country to pursue a reactionary agenda (one that he didn’t share during the campaign). They have to get something for their money.”
The plan that Republican governors are carrying out comes from ALEC, Koch brothers and their ilk. That is what is driving Rauner (Walker, Kasich, Brownbach, et al) in this power struggle. Don’t forget that as we move through all this.
Comment by Griff Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 1:17 pm
++- MrJM - Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 10:07 am:
“How can you change something you don’t know or understand?” You burn it down.++
This is Rauner plan in a nutshell!
Comment by Mama Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 1:19 pm
==I believe he got into this with no intention of a second term==
He’s flat out said he wants one.
==He himself is pretty teflon, but most of the rest of the reps are not.==
It’s actually just the opposite, Madigan’s approval ratings are abysmal, but the Reps know their districts well enough to hang on, time and time again.
==The psychological aspect is so often overlooked, but that IS politics.==
To an extent, but I think if you replaced MJM with any other Dem in the caucus, they’d be acting the exact same way right now. The incentives are what they are.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 1:32 pm
I don’t want war, I want the days of Big Jim
Comment by Ghost Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 1:47 pm
=To an extent, but I think if you replaced MJM with any other Dem in the caucus, they’d be acting the exact same way right now. The incentives are what they are.=
Well, my point is that you couldn’t just replace him with anyone. He is the Speaker, and he has worked for 40+ years to make himself the most powerful politician in Illinois. If Madigan died or resigned or whatever, he would be replaced by someone - but I don’t necessarily think that replacement would do things just the way MJM does them. He is a die-hard, old school political boss. For better and for worse, state government has been influenced by his personality and governing style. If he were gone, whoever replaced him would be much weaker and Rauner would actually have an easier time dividing and conquering. I don’t think the Madigan machine is going to be divided and/or conquered any time soon.
I think what Rauner misses is the fact that Madigan is not just some enemy from the business world. He can’t be steamrolled or bullied into anything. He has an army of people to whom he is loyal, and who are loyal to him in return. Those people include legislators, judges, other elected officials and staffers/employees at all levels of government. If you lose Madigan, you lose all of those people and it is very hard to govern the state that way. Just ask Rod, or Pat for that matter.
Comment by Snucka Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 2:12 pm
I just don’t see that, as a VP candidate, Rauner brings anything to the ticket. There are a hundred or so Republicans, seasoned politicians, with a lot of name recognition running for president. Any one of them would be a better pick for a running mate by the eventual winner.
Comment by Wensicia Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 2:19 pm
Kodachrome:
You and Trover are the only ones who think Madigan’s poll numbers could go further down in Southern Illinois and their constituents don’t already realize that Phelps and Bradley are Democrats.
Meanwhile, Rauner wants to whack SIUC by 31% and close prisons.
If I am Bradley and Phelps, I am perfectly happy with this match-up.
Comment by Juvenal Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 2:21 pm
I’m sure he wants a second term to “finish the job”, but I also don’t think he immediately went into campaign mode after the election, like so many politicians do. I think he understands if he doesn’t accomplish enough in the next 2 years, he has virtually no chance of winning a 2nd term, regardless of how much he spends on the next campaign.
Sorry Arsenal, totally disagree on your second point. You kind of made my point - Madigan can care less what his approval rating is outside his district, because he is invulnerable there. That is absolutely not the case with many D reps outside of the collar counties. Madigan can carry a few, but if the attacks end up hurting more than that, he’s gonna have to pick and choose who to give the most $ support to, cause he’s going to be up against $$$$. Again, they have not had to deal with an R gov like this before - its new territory. And I agree completely with Snucka, there is no one who can replace him in the House and have the same juice - no one. Unless there is already a contingency plan in place, there will be more than one throwing their hat in the Speaker ring and enlisting support - which could cause a divide in the caucus that hasnt been seen in a long, long time.
Comment by Kodachrome Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 2:32 pm
With Rauner, we have a toxic and nihilistic version of Margaret Thatcher in charge of the state –all Thatcher’s ideology, partisanship, narrow-mindedness and inflexibility, but with almost none of her experience, vision, knowledge or interest in getting government to work. And without Mrs. T’s huge legislative majorities. So he’s free to tear down without taking responsibility. And he has the resources and the pliant media and the circumstances to pin at least a significant amount of the blame on Madigan and the Democrats.
This is not going to end well, no matter who “wins.”
If only Dillard had won the primary . . .
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 2:35 pm
Remember the Star Trek episode “The Alternative Factor,” in which to save the universe, two mortal enemies are locked away in a dimensional corridor to battle each other throughout eternity? I think such a plan, with Rauner and Madigan in the starring roles, is Illinois’ best hope for survival.
Comment by aunt_petunia Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 2:47 pm
==If anyone in the Rauner camp has any delusions that they are going to win a war of attrition against Madigan, someone should disavow them of their fantasies.== Ask Emil Jones and Rod Blagojevich how that war of attrition stuff with Madigan worked.
Comment by SAP Friday, Jun 5, 15 @ 2:49 pm