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The key here is that even though the two are essentially tied, 14 percent of African-Americans are still undecided. With those votes and if the machine kicks in hard, this is not a tie race. Still, Stroger is way under 50 and lots of people have to be nervous.
Stroger leads Peraica 39 percent to 36 percent in the survey, which has an error margin of 5 percentage points. The poll of 481 likely Cook County voters was conducted Oct. 8-11. […]The new poll found that 21 percent of self-described Democrats said they would vote for the Republican. […]
The core support for Peraica, a county commissioner from Riverside, comes from the suburbs, where he holds a 48 percent to 28 percent edge over Stroger. But in the city, Stroger holds a two-to-one advantage over Peraica–50 percent to 25 percent. […]
Asked who would be more likely to reform county government, 31 percent said Peraica, 29 percent said Stroger and 20 percent said neither.
As usual, the Tribune hasn’t posted any crosstabs or polling details beyond what’s in the article.
Meanwhile, the Trib endorsed Peraica today. And the Daily Southtown’s Phil Kadner let loose on Todd Stroger.
In fact, during an editorial board interview with the Daily Southtown on Friday, young Stroger, the son of former Cook County Board President John Stroger, seemed so lacking in knowledge that I had to wonder why he is even running for the office.
* The Tribune claims that its poll’s margin of error is 5 percent, but it’s actually slightly less than 4.5 percent. Isn’t it at least a little odd that the Trib would undercut its own poll by claiming a higher MoE than it really has and, in the process, make the race look slightly closer?
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 8:16 am
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Even more alarming to Stroger should be that nearly a quarter of Dems polled say they will back Peraica. This is pretty close to the 1/4 to 1/3 of Dems that I know that have told me how they plan to vote.
Comment by Niles Township Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 8:43 am
Relax, people…the machine will do its job, and Stroger will be elected. That’s what the machine does - prevents change.
No need to worry.
Comment by Slash Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 8:51 am
Go get ‘em Tony!!!
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 9:59 am
Imagine if the GOP had run a strong candidate? They would be up by 20 now.
If the GOP loses this one, every Cook County Committeeman should resign. In Cook County they thought a strange social conservative was a good idea. The far right has taken over that party and now it is going to do real damage. We need a two party system in Cook County, but the GOP has to play the role of a real party.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:02 am
Assuming Stroger’s got the dough to educate voters on Peraica’s deep involvement in Cicero, this thing won’t end up being that close.
Comment by Remember Betty Loren Maltese Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:05 am
Remember Betty Loren:
Not sure if you heard. The Cook County Dem. Party concealed the extent of Stroger Sr.’s health and that enabled him to defeat Claypool.
The Cook County Dems then decided that they, and not the voters, should choose the candidate. They chose to make the position hereditary. Since my parents never held elective office, I don’t much like that idea.
I would vote for Maltese and let her serve as Board President from her current home before I would vote for Young Todd, best know in his Springfield days for telling his pals to vote “Present” for him when he had better things to do than to show up and be present. In that way, he is a good fit for Cook County in its current state.
The only issue for any self-respecting is whether to vote for Peraica or to not vote at all. It is a no win here.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:21 am
The MoE seems very high at 5. The poll is of registered voters not likely voters. Nevertheless, someone should probably turn the lights back on at Stroger HQ.
Comment by Punley Deiter Finn Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:44 am
If you don’t like Peraica he will be replaced by a competent Dem in four years.
If you have buyer’s remorse about Stroger be prepared to wait 30-40 years to replace him.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:47 am
Why was the Sun-Times’ polling derided because of its “small” sample size (400 registered voters, if I recall correctly), but the Tribune’s similar-sized poll is accepted as gospel?
Comment by Anon Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:56 am
Calling this race a “virtual tie” is wishful thinking on the part of the Trib. Peraica would need another 20 points in the suburbs. Over the last two elections Topinka is the only Republican to break 50% in the burbs. The demographics are “trending away” as the wonks are fond of saying.
Comment by HappyToaster Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 11:33 am
I’m sure Peraica is as horrible as Todd Stroger and all the other machine pol’s keep telling us he is.
He can’t be worse the Beavers and other “kingmakers”.
I’m a life long liberal pro-choice democrat who is voting for the freaky conservative republican because sometime you have to do what you have to do to stop evil in it’s tracks.
I might be stupid - but I’m not that stupid!
Comment by Sick and tired or being sick and tired! Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 11:39 am
just another race where I am very unhappy with my options. Absolutely cannot stand Perica. Guess I’ll do a write in. Maybe Cook County voters should unite on a write in candidate…Mike McDermott? For Gov., I’m going Green.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 11:51 am
Time for a little wagering. With Stroger yet to get on TV and the worst of the debate crap out of the way (while there is one more, it will just be more of the same), plus the fact that as much damage as can be done has been done to Stroger’s rep, I am betting 54%-46% in favor of Stroger at the end of the day. If things are all tied up right now, that’s what I’m guessing. Of course, throw the right negative ads in there from Tony and the machine will need to eat its Wheaties election morning.
And so, the drama continues.
Comment by The Picolo Player is a... Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 11:57 am
Anon 10:56 — Because this is a Cook County only race with a smaller voting population. The other polls you referenced sampled only 400 or so people for statewide races.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 12:02 pm
One good thing I heard about Todd Stroger was that he plans on planting more trees along county roads. From an environmental standpoint, this is a good thing. Also, new trees will beautiful the county more.
Comment by swede Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 12:19 pm
If this poll is by the same outfit that the Trib had on that goofy Governor’s race poll, then Peraica is ahead, as his polling (and Stroger’s polling for that matter), indicates.
Stroger’s own polling recently showed Peraica up six. Peraica’s most recent poll shows him up eight.
Comment by Bubs Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 12:31 pm
The Tribune Endorsement was probably the strongest in recent memory. It truly showed by an objective body, that Peraica can bring about the necessary reform and Stroger has an embarassing lack of knowledge, even intellectual curiosity about county government.
Stroger’s campaign is the machine’s equivalent of Alan Keyes fated run.
I will absolutely be voting for Peraica.
Ashur Odishoo
Candidate
State Representative 11th District
www.voteodishoo.com
Comment by Ashur Odishoo Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 1:29 pm
Bubs, what would you know about Stroger’s own polling, since he hasn’t released the “results” you claim?
The simple fact is Peraica has an “R” by his name (this year) and would lose on that basis alone, even without his Cicero baggage. Cook County is too hard core Blue to pretend there will be any other result.
And Peraica has done little to prepare for a Republican takeover of anything in Cook, as he’s flipped flopped back and forth between the Parties more than anyone I’ve ever seen, anywhere. He’s been all about himself, not building the GOP.
Comment by Real Clear Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 1:33 pm
Well, Ashur, thanks for putting the question about whom you plan to vote for to rest. Seeing that both you and Tony Peraica appear in a picture together on your website, I assume you support him.
Comment by Chick McGann Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 1:58 pm
Where is Gary Skoien?
Comment by Talk about useless Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 2:29 pm
If you think any Peraica ties to Cicero will matter or even resonate with voters — you are one sandwich short of a picnic.
Comment by Just Observing Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 2:36 pm
Real Clear, sorry to inform you that we are not all as clueless, uninformed and destructive as you are, notwithstanding your pompous opinions. If you have to wait for polls to be “released” before you find out what is in them, you are not a very good politico.
Now be a good boy, stop whining, and go back to kissing Jack’s . . .
Comment by Bubs Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 2:37 pm
“Isn’t it at least a little odd that the Trib would undercut its own poll by claiming a higher MoE than it really has and, in the process, make the race look slightly closer?”
Rich, not if they are themselves suspicious over the accuracy of the poll they bought for big bucks.
Comment by Bubs Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 2:50 pm
Swede, the only problem with Stroger planting more trees is that he will hire someone from the 8th regular at a salary of $125k per year, with no horticultural experience to do it.
Comment by Wumpus DBA Charity Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 2:52 pm
Bubs, it sucks don’t it when you make yourself look like a fool. Instead of digging yourself deeper, why don’t you just admit you have no clue about Stroger’s internal polls.
Too bad for you when Peraica AND Topinka go down in flames in just 3 short weeks. It’s easy to see why.
Comment by Real Clear Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:42 pm
If Dan Proft doesn’t start washing his long greasy hair and shaving before going on TV representing Peraica, those poll numbers could plummet.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:02 am